प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के मार्च 2021 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। यह सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में 27 फ़रवरी से 8 मार्च, 2021 के दौरान फ़ील्ड साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम2 5,955 शहरी परिवारों3 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष:

  1. वर्तमान अवधि तथा तीन माह आगे की अवधि के लिए परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में जनवरी 2021 चक्र के मुकाबले क्रमशः 50 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) और 80 बीपीएस की वृद्धि हुई। [चार्ट 1a और 1b; तालिका 3]।.

  2. एक वर्ष आगे के लिए मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं उच्च स्तर पर रहीं [चार्ट 1a और 1b; तालिका 3]।

  3. तीन महीने और एक वर्ष के समस्तर के लिए उत्तरदाताओं की प्रमुख श्रेणियों (जैसे, वित्तीय क्षेत्र के कर्मचारियों, अन्य कर्मचारियों, स्वरोजगारी, गृहिणियों, सेवानिवृत्त व्यक्तियों और दैनिक श्रमिकों) के लिए मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाओं में वृद्धि हुई।

  4. सामान्य कीमतों और मुद्रास्फीति में वृद्धि के लिए उच्च अपेक्षाएँ खाद्य और सेवा समूहों में तेजी के कारण थी [तालिका 1a और 1b]।

Chart 1

नोट: कृपया समय शृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।


Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 83.3 0.79 81.6 0.78 83.3 0.85 83.7 0.89 86.6 0.74
Price increase more than current rate 52.5 1.10 53.9 1.02 55.4 1.14 56.0 1.26 58.4 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 25.6 0.99 22.5 0.84 23.6 0.95 22.4 0.95 24.1 0.94
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.56 5.2 0.46 4.4 0.46 5.3 0.53 4.1 0.50
No changes in prices 14.9 0.76 15.9 0.74 14.2 0.81 14.3 0.86 11.1 0.71
Decline in prices 1.8 0.25 2.5 0.31 2.4 0.32 1.9 0.30 2.3 0.29
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.9 0.81 80.4 0.80 81.5 0.83 80.9 0.95 85.2 0.70
Price increase more than current rate 55.4 1.02 52.6 1.00 54.7 1.10 54.2 1.16 61.2 1.01
Price increase similar to current rate 20.0 0.88 21.2 0.81 20.3 0.90 20.0 0.95 18.1 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 6.5 0.56 6.6 0.51 6.5 0.59 6.7 0.57 6.0 0.55
No changes in prices 12.4 0.68 14.3 0.70 11.6 0.67 13.0 0.82 9.3 0.60
Decline in prices 5.7 0.43 5.3 0.46 6.9 0.54 6.1 0.54 5.5 0.45
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 77.8 0.87 75.8 0.87 74.8 0.99 79.3 0.98 81.0 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 50.8 1.00 47.3 0.99 48.0 1.11 51.6 1.20 57.0 1.00
Price increase similar to current rate 20.8 0.89 21.9 0.82 20.3 0.87 20.9 0.90 19.4 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 0.50 6.6 0.50 6.4 0.57 6.7 0.56 4.7 0.43
No changes in prices 17.7 0.79 19.2 0.80 20.1 0.92 16.9 0.91 12.9 0.69
Decline in prices 4.5 0.42 5.0 0.45 5.2 0.48 3.8 0.40 6.2 0.48
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 64.5 1.02 56.3 1.02 60.3 1.09 64.3 1.11 68.1 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 42.3 1.03 35.0 0.96 38.2 1.11 42.5 1.15 46.0 0.98
Price increase similar to current rate 17.2 0.80 15.8 0.74 16.2 0.82 16.8 0.77 17.7 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.44 5.5 0.47 5.8 0.59 5.0 0.49 4.4 0.44
No changes in prices 24.2 0.90 30.7 0.94 27.4 1.00 27.2 1.05 24.6 0.84
Decline in prices 11.2 0.63 13.1 0.69 12.3 0.71 8.4 0.58 7.3 0.50
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 71.0 1.07 51.8 0.98 60.7 1.12 66.1 1.11 68.9 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 49.5 1.10 32.8 0.93 40.4 1.14 45.1 1.20 48.4 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 17.4 0.78 14.4 0.69 15.9 0.80 16.2 0.79 16.7 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.39 4.6 0.43 4.4 0.50 4.8 0.49 3.8 0.40
No changes in prices 22.1 0.96 29.1 0.91 25.9 1.01 24.6 1.02 22.2 0.86
Decline in prices 6.9 0.52 19.1 0.78 13.4 0.84 9.3 0.66 8.9 0.54
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 70.8 0.99 70.3 0.91 70.4 1.02 68.8 1.06 75.6 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 46.2 1.02 45.5 1.01 44.8 1.10 45.7 1.15 51.6 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 19.3 0.84 19.1 0.79 20.3 0.88 18.5 0.81 19.4 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.44 5.7 0.47 5.3 0.50 4.6 0.50 4.5 0.44
No changes in prices 25.9 0.94 25.8 0.88 25.2 0.98 27.4 1.02 20.8 0.84
Decline in prices 3.3 0.34 3.9 0.38 4.4 0.44 3.8 0.47 3.6 0.36
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE SE Estimate SE Estimate
Prices will increase 89.2 0.65 84.8 0.73 86.5 0.77 88.0 0.80 88.7 0.61
Price increase more than current rate 60.7 1.07 59.6 1.00 59.5 1.09 62.9 1.23 63.4 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 24.8 1.00 20.4 0.82 22.9 0.92 21.2 0.95 21.4 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 3.7 0.42 4.7 0.43 4.1 0.44 3.9 0.43 3.8 0.44
No changes in prices 9.0 0.62 12.1 0.67 10.3 0.69 9.6 0.75 8.5 0.54
Decline in prices 1.8 0.26 3.1 0.35 3.2 0.39 2.4 0.33 2.8 0.32
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 85.6 0.73 77.3 0.85 77.7 0.97 80.5 0.96 81.7 0.74
Price increase more than current rate 55.6 1.10 48.3 0.99 48.4 1.10 53.0 1.21 54.6 1.01
Price increase similar to current rate 24.3 0.93 22.5 0.82 24.0 0.93 22.6 0.96 22.2 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.7 0.49 6.4 0.51 5.4 0.48 4.9 0.49 4.9 0.46
No changes in prices 10.3 0.64 14.8 0.72 14.3 0.82 13.4 0.84 12.0 0.61
Decline in prices 4.1 0.37 7.9 0.55 8.0 0.58 6.1 0.55 6.3 0.45
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.3 0.81 75.7 0.87 75.0 0.98 80.4 0.93 79.9 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 53.6 1.08 47.3 1.00 45.6 1.13 52.8 1.22 54.0 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 23.4 0.92 22.2 0.83 23.5 0.93 22.7 0.93 21.4 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.47 6.1 0.49 5.9 0.55 4.9 0.45 4.6 0.44
No changes in prices 14.2 0.73 18.2 0.78 19.3 0.89 15.0 0.84 13.4 0.66
Decline in prices 3.4 0.36 6.1 0.49 5.8 0.51 4.6 0.46 6.6 0.47
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 70.8 1.02 62.3 0.98 65.0 1.08 69.8 1.07 70.3 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 46.6 1.09 38.8 0.98 39.9 1.08 45.0 1.20 47.2 0.98
Price increase similar to current rate 19.8 0.86 18.4 0.77 19.7 0.88 19.9 0.81 18.8 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.42 5.1 0.45 5.4 0.54 4.9 0.48 4.4 0.42
No changes in prices 19.7 0.87 26.5 0.88 24.6 1.01 22.1 0.97 22.7 0.81
Decline in prices 9.5 0.59 11.2 0.64 10.3 0.68 8.1 0.63 6.9 0.48
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 79.9 0.90 63.9 0.95 72.1 1.01 74.8 1.05 75.7 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 56.5 1.03 42.0 0.99 47.8 1.10 49.9 1.22 53.8 1.04
Price increase similar to current rate 19.6 0.82 17.4 0.75 19.8 0.87 20.2 0.91 18.3 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.39 4.6 0.43 4.5 0.44 4.7 0.48 3.6 0.38
No changes in prices 14.5 0.78 23.8 0.85 19.2 0.86 17.7 0.95 17.8 0.76
Decline in prices 5.5 0.47 12.2 0.67 8.7 0.65 7.5 0.61 6.5 0.48
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 81.4 0.85 76.8 0.86 77.2 0.98 78.5 0.98 81.4 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 53.0 1.09 48.5 1.01 49.0 1.11 51.1 1.21 55.2 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 23.3 0.90 22.0 0.83 22.2 0.87 22.9 0.96 21.5 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.44 6.3 0.50 6.1 0.55 4.6 0.45 4.7 0.44
No changes in prices 16.0 0.81 19.6 0.81 18.6 0.91 18.2 0.94 15.2 0.67
Decline in prices 2.7 0.30 3.6 0.37 4.2 0.45 3.3 0.41 3.4 0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: March 2021
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.4 0.11 8.7 0.16 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.11 10.0 0.12 10.2 0.09
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.8 0.14 9.4 0.31 10.7 0.14 10.3 0.10 10.2 0.16 10.4 0.12
Female 9.1 0.15 8.4 0.19 10.3 0.15 9.7 0.34 10.0 0.18 10.2 0.14
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.5 0.43 8.3 0.52 9.3 0.42 9.4 0.71 8.7 0.48 8.8 0.77
Other Employees 9.6 0.19 8.8 0.26 10.5 0.20 10.0 0.24 10.2 0.22 10.2 0.18
Self Employed 9.4 0.20 8.9 0.35 10.4 0.20 10.2 0.14 10.0 0.24 10.3 0.21
Homemakers 9.1 0.17 8.4 0.24 10.2 0.18 9.7 0.35 9.9 0.21 10.1 0.20
Retired Persons 10.6 0.37 10.3 0.47 11.4 0.34 11.3 0.82 10.6 0.44 11.3 0.81
Daily Workers 9.8 0.31 9.4 0.55 10.6 0.31 10.3 0.29 10.2 0.32 10.4 0.29
Other category 9.1 0.24 8.3 0.35 10.1 0.25 9.2 0.43 9.6 0.29 9.2 0.51
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.8 0.19 8.0 0.23 10.0 0.20 9.3 0.41 9.8 0.24 9.9 0.36
25 to 30 years 9.0 0.19 8.3 0.21 10.0 0.20 9.2 0.40 9.9 0.23 9.7 0.38
30 to 35 years 9.3 0.21 8.5 0.26 10.3 0.21 9.8 0.32 10.0 0.25 10.0 0.25
35 to 40 years 9.5 0.22 8.9 0.36 10.5 0.22 10.2 0.20 10.1 0.26 10.3 0.17
40 to 45 years 9.4 0.23 8.9 0.35 10.5 0.23 10.1 0.28 9.9 0.28 10.3 0.20
45 to 50 years 10.1 0.25 9.9 0.32 11.1 0.24 10.6 0.19 10.6 0.28 10.6 0.34
50 to 55 years 10.0 0.24 10.0 0.25 11.0 0.24 10.5 0.19 9.5 0.34 10.1 0.29
55 to 60 years 10.4 0.32 10.2 0.20 11.4 0.30 11.0 0.52 10.7 0.37 11.0 0.48
60 years and above 10.6 0.30 10.3 0.20 11.5 0.28 11.3 0.80 10.9 0.37 11.6 0.91
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 10.1 0.67 9.6 1.04 11.3 0.66 11.4 1.62 11.0 0.64 11.4 1.62
Bengaluru 9.6 0.32 9.6 0.80 10.7 0.34 10.4 0.40 10.5 0.34 10.9 0.45
Bhopal 8.6 0.87 6.8 1.28 9.6 0.85 8.4 1.19 9.5 0.73 8.9 1.19
Bhubaneswar 10.5 0.59 10.1 0.68 11.2 0.49 11.0 1.25 9.1 0.87 9.8 1.13
Chennai 10.1 0.33 10.3 0.16 11.7 0.33 11.3 0.67 11.6 0.42 13.3 1.40
Delhi 9.6 0.21 9.1 0.44 10.6 0.23 10.1 0.30 10.1 0.25 10.1 0.29
Guwahati 7.6 0.39 8.0 0.46 7.7 0.41 8.2 0.40 7.0 0.71 8.1 0.86
Hyderabad 10.7 0.30 10.5 0.12 12.2 0.30 13.2 1.11 11.9 0.33 13.5 1.06
Jaipur 8.4 0.39 8.0 0.49 8.9 0.32 8.6 0.49 8.5 0.52 8.6 0.64
Kolkata 9.0 0.26 8.4 0.33 10.1 0.25 9.7 0.40 10.2 0.29 10.1 0.28
Lucknow 9.5 0.71 9.1 0.71 10.5 0.69 10.2 0.50 10.7 0.70 10.7 0.87
Mumbai 9.4 0.35 8.2 0.42 9.9 0.35 8.9 0.48 8.3 0.35 7.8 0.54
Nagpur 8.2 0.59 7.5 0.53 9.9 0.56 9.7 0.68 10.4 0.58 10.3 0.33
Patna 8.0 0.45 7.7 0.61 8.6 0.45 8.3 0.66 8.4 0.44 8.2 0.65
Thiruvananthapuram 5.6 0.67 4.9 0.62 7.1 0.77 6.0 0.67 8.2 1.02 7.3 1.00
Chandigarh 10.6 0.46 10.4 0.18 10.4 0.73 10.2 0.58 10.1 0.98 10.3 0.71
Ranchi 6.7 0.31 6.2 0.40 7.2 0.42 6.8 0.64 7.0 0.72 7.5 0.84
Raipur 7.4 0.75 6.9 0.69 8.7 0.84 8.2 0.65 10.4 0.67 10.7 1.05
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Mar-20 8.4 0.09 7.6 0.12 9.2 0.10 8.5 0.11 9.1 0.11 9.0 0.18
Sep-20 9.9 0.10 9.8 0.25 10.8 0.10 10.4 0.07 9.9 0.12 10.3 0.08
Nov-20 9.5 0.11 8.8 0.18 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.09 9.8 0.13 10.1 0.11
Jan-21 9.1 0.12 8.2 0.17 10.0 0.12 9.3 0.29 9.7 0.13 10.1 0.15
Mar-21 9.4 0.11 8.7 0.16 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.11 10.0 0.12 10.2 0.09
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Mar-20 65.4 64.6 55.8 61.1 64.7
Sep-20 62.1 61.0 50.4 45.9 60.5
Nov-20 62.7 63.5 52.4 54.0 60.7
Jan-21 63.3 64.3 54.5 55.7 62.8
Mar-21 67.0 65.7 57.4 58.6 65.1
One Year Ahead
Mar-20 71.9 71.8 63.2 69.9 72.3
Sep-20 63.0 64.8 55.5 53.6 66.6
Nov-20 66.4 65.9 56.7 62.1 68.9
Jan-21 68.4 68.6 60.6 63.0 69.0
Mar-21 69.6 70.1 62.4 65.5 71.6
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: March 2021
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
1-<2 0 20 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 39
2-<3 1 7 61 46 36 11 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 167
3-<4 0 2 8 60 58 61 11 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 204
4-<5 0 0 12 12 127 98 72 10 6 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 342
5-<6 0 4 1 27 46 397 147 245 93 8 102 0 2 0 0 10 3 0 1085
6-<7 0 1 1 1 5 12 126 95 73 15 24 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 357
7-<8 0 0 1 1 3 10 4 175 105 47 63 5 9 3 2 3 0 0 431
8-<9 0 1 1 0 1 7 4 8 220 73 131 12 24 4 4 6 5 0 501
9-<10 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 102 57 28 26 6 4 9 5 0 243
10-<11 0 0 0 0 0 22 3 16 18 8 406 56 166 45 19 244 118 0 1121
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 4 8 1 0 0 0 28
12-<13 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 1 22 14 15 19 11 0 88
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 8 5 0 23
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9 4 7 0 22
15-<16 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 1 4 0 4 1 0 3 4 89 126 0 241
>=16 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 1 0 29 0 1 2 1 26 984 3 1055
Total 7 36 95 154 282 634 372 557 524 254 821 119 259 92 62 419 1265 3 5955
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: March 2021
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 4 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8
1-<2 10 10 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39
2-<3 22 4 32 31 30 23 12 4 4 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 167
3-<4 21 0 2 39 23 62 18 21 9 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 204
4-<5 50 0 2 6 75 61 68 36 25 1 11 0 1 1 0 3 2 0 342
5-<6 150 1 3 11 12 228 86 199 119 37 166 10 11 3 1 31 15 2 1085
6-<7 24 0 1 0 2 9 87 49 86 24 52 4 10 2 1 4 2 0 357
7-<8 49 0 0 0 2 4 7 113 56 63 71 15 19 9 6 12 5 0 431
8-<9 52 0 0 0 0 5 2 3 135 54 116 34 53 8 9 13 17 0 501
9-<10 18 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 67 36 33 46 10 7 18 4 0 243
10-<11 119 0 0 1 0 14 3 13 13 8 242 29 119 53 27 243 236 1 1121
11-<12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 6 6 1 1 0 0 28
12-<13 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 1 17 3 14 23 19 0 88
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 10 6 0 23
14-<15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 12 0 22
15-<16 28 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 2 1 1 66 136 0 241
>=16 123 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 25 1 1 0 2 11 884 4 1055
Total 679 15 48 94 148 414 285 441 449 259 736 140 287 101 76 437 1338 8 5955
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा किए गए हों। पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के परिणाम बैंक की वेबसाइट पर फ़रवरी 05, 2021 को जारी किए गए थे।

2 यह सर्वेक्षण भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक के द्वारा द्विमाही अंतरालों पर संचालित किया जाता है। यह सर्वेक्षण निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबावों पर उत्तरदाताओं से प्राप्त यथापेक्षित उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर पारिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।

3 सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर के डेटा, बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल पर उपलब्ध हैं (वेबलिंक : https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=unitLevelData)।


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