आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के मार्च 2021 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। यह सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में 27 फ़रवरी से 8 मार्च, 2021 के दौरान फ़ील्ड साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम2 5,955 शहरी परिवारों3 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Mar-20 |
Sep-20 |
Nov-20 |
Jan-21 |
Mar-21 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
83.3 |
0.79 |
81.6 |
0.78 |
83.3 |
0.85 |
83.7 |
0.89 |
86.6 |
0.74 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.5 |
1.10 |
53.9 |
1.02 |
55.4 |
1.14 |
56.0 |
1.26 |
58.4 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
25.6 |
0.99 |
22.5 |
0.84 |
23.6 |
0.95 |
22.4 |
0.95 |
24.1 |
0.94 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.56 |
5.2 |
0.46 |
4.4 |
0.46 |
5.3 |
0.53 |
4.1 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
14.9 |
0.76 |
15.9 |
0.74 |
14.2 |
0.81 |
14.3 |
0.86 |
11.1 |
0.71 |
Decline in prices |
1.8 |
0.25 |
2.5 |
0.31 |
2.4 |
0.32 |
1.9 |
0.30 |
2.3 |
0.29 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.9 |
0.81 |
80.4 |
0.80 |
81.5 |
0.83 |
80.9 |
0.95 |
85.2 |
0.70 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.4 |
1.02 |
52.6 |
1.00 |
54.7 |
1.10 |
54.2 |
1.16 |
61.2 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.0 |
0.88 |
21.2 |
0.81 |
20.3 |
0.90 |
20.0 |
0.95 |
18.1 |
0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.5 |
0.56 |
6.6 |
0.51 |
6.5 |
0.59 |
6.7 |
0.57 |
6.0 |
0.55 |
No changes in prices |
12.4 |
0.68 |
14.3 |
0.70 |
11.6 |
0.67 |
13.0 |
0.82 |
9.3 |
0.60 |
Decline in prices |
5.7 |
0.43 |
5.3 |
0.46 |
6.9 |
0.54 |
6.1 |
0.54 |
5.5 |
0.45 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
77.8 |
0.87 |
75.8 |
0.87 |
74.8 |
0.99 |
79.3 |
0.98 |
81.0 |
0.78 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.8 |
1.00 |
47.3 |
0.99 |
48.0 |
1.11 |
51.6 |
1.20 |
57.0 |
1.00 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.8 |
0.89 |
21.9 |
0.82 |
20.3 |
0.87 |
20.9 |
0.90 |
19.4 |
0.77 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.2 |
0.50 |
6.6 |
0.50 |
6.4 |
0.57 |
6.7 |
0.56 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
17.7 |
0.79 |
19.2 |
0.80 |
20.1 |
0.92 |
16.9 |
0.91 |
12.9 |
0.69 |
Decline in prices |
4.5 |
0.42 |
5.0 |
0.45 |
5.2 |
0.48 |
3.8 |
0.40 |
6.2 |
0.48 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
64.5 |
1.02 |
56.3 |
1.02 |
60.3 |
1.09 |
64.3 |
1.11 |
68.1 |
0.92 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.3 |
1.03 |
35.0 |
0.96 |
38.2 |
1.11 |
42.5 |
1.15 |
46.0 |
0.98 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.2 |
0.80 |
15.8 |
0.74 |
16.2 |
0.82 |
16.8 |
0.77 |
17.7 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.5 |
0.47 |
5.8 |
0.59 |
5.0 |
0.49 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
24.2 |
0.90 |
30.7 |
0.94 |
27.4 |
1.00 |
27.2 |
1.05 |
24.6 |
0.84 |
Decline in prices |
11.2 |
0.63 |
13.1 |
0.69 |
12.3 |
0.71 |
8.4 |
0.58 |
7.3 |
0.50 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
71.0 |
1.07 |
51.8 |
0.98 |
60.7 |
1.12 |
66.1 |
1.11 |
68.9 |
0.93 |
Price increase more than current rate |
49.5 |
1.10 |
32.8 |
0.93 |
40.4 |
1.14 |
45.1 |
1.20 |
48.4 |
1.03 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.4 |
0.78 |
14.4 |
0.69 |
15.9 |
0.80 |
16.2 |
0.79 |
16.7 |
0.75 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.39 |
4.6 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.50 |
4.8 |
0.49 |
3.8 |
0.40 |
No changes in prices |
22.1 |
0.96 |
29.1 |
0.91 |
25.9 |
1.01 |
24.6 |
1.02 |
22.2 |
0.86 |
Decline in prices |
6.9 |
0.52 |
19.1 |
0.78 |
13.4 |
0.84 |
9.3 |
0.66 |
8.9 |
0.54 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
70.8 |
0.99 |
70.3 |
0.91 |
70.4 |
1.02 |
68.8 |
1.06 |
75.6 |
0.90 |
Price increase more than current rate |
46.2 |
1.02 |
45.5 |
1.01 |
44.8 |
1.10 |
45.7 |
1.15 |
51.6 |
1.02 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.3 |
0.84 |
19.1 |
0.79 |
20.3 |
0.88 |
18.5 |
0.81 |
19.4 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.44 |
5.7 |
0.47 |
5.3 |
0.50 |
4.6 |
0.50 |
4.5 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
25.9 |
0.94 |
25.8 |
0.88 |
25.2 |
0.98 |
27.4 |
1.02 |
20.8 |
0.84 |
Decline in prices |
3.3 |
0.34 |
3.9 |
0.38 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
3.8 |
0.47 |
3.6 |
0.36 |
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Mar-20 |
Sep-20 |
Nov-20 |
Jan-21 |
Mar-21 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
Prices will increase |
89.2 |
0.65 |
84.8 |
0.73 |
86.5 |
0.77 |
88.0 |
0.80 |
88.7 |
0.61 |
Price increase more than current rate |
60.7 |
1.07 |
59.6 |
1.00 |
59.5 |
1.09 |
62.9 |
1.23 |
63.4 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.8 |
1.00 |
20.4 |
0.82 |
22.9 |
0.92 |
21.2 |
0.95 |
21.4 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.7 |
0.42 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
4.1 |
0.44 |
3.9 |
0.43 |
3.8 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
9.0 |
0.62 |
12.1 |
0.67 |
10.3 |
0.69 |
9.6 |
0.75 |
8.5 |
0.54 |
Decline in prices |
1.8 |
0.26 |
3.1 |
0.35 |
3.2 |
0.39 |
2.4 |
0.33 |
2.8 |
0.32 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
85.6 |
0.73 |
77.3 |
0.85 |
77.7 |
0.97 |
80.5 |
0.96 |
81.7 |
0.74 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.6 |
1.10 |
48.3 |
0.99 |
48.4 |
1.10 |
53.0 |
1.21 |
54.6 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.3 |
0.93 |
22.5 |
0.82 |
24.0 |
0.93 |
22.6 |
0.96 |
22.2 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.7 |
0.49 |
6.4 |
0.51 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
4.9 |
0.49 |
4.9 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
10.3 |
0.64 |
14.8 |
0.72 |
14.3 |
0.82 |
13.4 |
0.84 |
12.0 |
0.61 |
Decline in prices |
4.1 |
0.37 |
7.9 |
0.55 |
8.0 |
0.58 |
6.1 |
0.55 |
6.3 |
0.45 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
82.3 |
0.81 |
75.7 |
0.87 |
75.0 |
0.98 |
80.4 |
0.93 |
79.9 |
0.79 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.6 |
1.08 |
47.3 |
1.00 |
45.6 |
1.13 |
52.8 |
1.22 |
54.0 |
1.02 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.4 |
0.92 |
22.2 |
0.83 |
23.5 |
0.93 |
22.7 |
0.93 |
21.4 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.3 |
0.47 |
6.1 |
0.49 |
5.9 |
0.55 |
4.9 |
0.45 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
14.2 |
0.73 |
18.2 |
0.78 |
19.3 |
0.89 |
15.0 |
0.84 |
13.4 |
0.66 |
Decline in prices |
3.4 |
0.36 |
6.1 |
0.49 |
5.8 |
0.51 |
4.6 |
0.46 |
6.6 |
0.47 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
70.8 |
1.02 |
62.3 |
0.98 |
65.0 |
1.08 |
69.8 |
1.07 |
70.3 |
0.90 |
Price increase more than current rate |
46.6 |
1.09 |
38.8 |
0.98 |
39.9 |
1.08 |
45.0 |
1.20 |
47.2 |
0.98 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.8 |
0.86 |
18.4 |
0.77 |
19.7 |
0.88 |
19.9 |
0.81 |
18.8 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.4 |
0.42 |
5.1 |
0.45 |
5.4 |
0.54 |
4.9 |
0.48 |
4.4 |
0.42 |
No changes in prices |
19.7 |
0.87 |
26.5 |
0.88 |
24.6 |
1.01 |
22.1 |
0.97 |
22.7 |
0.81 |
Decline in prices |
9.5 |
0.59 |
11.2 |
0.64 |
10.3 |
0.68 |
8.1 |
0.63 |
6.9 |
0.48 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
79.9 |
0.90 |
63.9 |
0.95 |
72.1 |
1.01 |
74.8 |
1.05 |
75.7 |
0.86 |
Price increase more than current rate |
56.5 |
1.03 |
42.0 |
0.99 |
47.8 |
1.10 |
49.9 |
1.22 |
53.8 |
1.04 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.6 |
0.82 |
17.4 |
0.75 |
19.8 |
0.87 |
20.2 |
0.91 |
18.3 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.8 |
0.39 |
4.6 |
0.43 |
4.5 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.48 |
3.6 |
0.38 |
No changes in prices |
14.5 |
0.78 |
23.8 |
0.85 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
17.7 |
0.95 |
17.8 |
0.76 |
Decline in prices |
5.5 |
0.47 |
12.2 |
0.67 |
8.7 |
0.65 |
7.5 |
0.61 |
6.5 |
0.48 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.4 |
0.85 |
76.8 |
0.86 |
77.2 |
0.98 |
78.5 |
0.98 |
81.4 |
0.75 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.0 |
1.09 |
48.5 |
1.01 |
49.0 |
1.11 |
51.1 |
1.21 |
55.2 |
1.02 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.3 |
0.90 |
22.0 |
0.83 |
22.2 |
0.87 |
22.9 |
0.96 |
21.5 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.0 |
0.44 |
6.3 |
0.50 |
6.1 |
0.55 |
4.6 |
0.45 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
16.0 |
0.81 |
19.6 |
0.81 |
18.6 |
0.91 |
18.2 |
0.94 |
15.2 |
0.67 |
Decline in prices |
2.7 |
0.30 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
4.2 |
0.45 |
3.3 |
0.41 |
3.4 |
0.35 |
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |