प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण – जनवरी 2021

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के जनवरी 2021 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविद-19 महामारी के चलते, यह सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में जनवरी 2 से 11, 2021 के दौरान, जहाँ कहीं भी संभव हो सका फ़ील्ड पर साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से, अन्यत्र, टेलीफ़ोनिक साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम 5,940 शहरी परिवारों2 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष:

i. नवंबर 2020 के चक्र की तुलना में मौजूदा अवधि के लिए परिवारों की मुद्रास्फीति की धारणा और तीन महीने आगे मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाओं में क्रमशः 60 आधार अंकों और 80 आधार अंकों की गिरावट आई है, जबकि एक वर्ष आगे मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएँ अपरिवर्तित रहीं [चार्ट 1a एवं 1b; तालिका 3]।

ii. पिछले कुछ सर्वेक्षण चक्रों की तुलना में उत्तरदाता भविष्य की मुद्रास्फीति के बारे में अधिक अनिश्चित थे, जैसा कि विस्तृत आत्मविश्वास अंतराल में परिलक्षित होता है [चार्ट 1a एवं 1b; तालिका 3]।

iii. अधिकाधिक परिवारों को अगले एक वर्ष में सामान्य कीमतों के साथ-साथ मुद्रास्फीति बढ़ने की उम्मीद है। खाद्य और गैर-खाद्य वस्तुओं के मामले में यह प्रमुखता से परिलक्षित है [तालिका 1b]।

iv. परिवारों को एक वर्ष आगे सेवाओं की कीमतों पर, एक तिमाही आगे की तुलना में, अधिक दबाव की उम्मीद है।

Chart_1

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 83.2 0.87 83.5 0.92 81.6 0.78 83.3 0.85 83.7 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 56.1 1.16 52.2 1.14 53.9 1.02 55.4 1.14 56.0 1.26
Price increase similar to current rate 23.4 0.91 26.0 1.03 22.5 0.84 23.6 0.95 22.4 0.95
Price increase less than current rate 3.6 0.37 5.3 0.54 5.2 0.46 4.4 0.46 5.3 0.53
No changes in prices 14.4 0.81 14.0 0.84 15.9 0.74 14.2 0.81 14.3 0.86
Decline in prices 2.4 0.31 2.5 0.43 2.5 0.31 2.4 0.32 1.9 0.30
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.7 0.80 82.3 0.86 80.4 0.80 81.5 0.83 80.9 0.95
Price increase more than current rate 56.0 1.11 54.7 1.08 52.6 1.00 54.7 1.10 54.2 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 20.1 0.85 21.9 0.89 21.2 0.81 20.3 0.90 20.0 0.95
Price increase less than current rate 5.5 0.45 5.7 0.47 6.6 0.51 6.5 0.59 6.7 0.57
No changes in prices 11.2 0.67 13.2 0.75 14.3 0.70 11.6 0.67 13.0 0.82
Decline in prices 7.2 0.50 4.5 0.56 5.3 0.46 6.9 0.54 6.1 0.54
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 77.8 0.91 79.1 0.99 75.8 0.87 74.8 0.99 79.3 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 51.4 1.15 48.3 1.11 47.3 0.99 48.0 1.11 51.6 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 21.2 0.88 24.6 0.98 21.9 0.82 20.3 0.87 20.9 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.43 6.2 0.51 6.6 0.50 6.4 0.57 6.7 0.56
No changes in prices 17.7 0.82 15.2 0.87 19.2 0.80 20.1 0.92 16.9 0.91
Decline in prices 4.4 0.39 5.6 0.59 5.0 0.45 5.2 0.48 3.8 0.40
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 60.3 1.02 57.8 1.14 56.3 1.02 60.3 1.09 64.3 1.11
Price increase more than current rate 37.9 1.03 34.7 1.07 35.0 0.96 38.2 1.11 42.5 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 17.5 0.76 17.6 0.87 15.8 0.74 16.2 0.82 16.8 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.43 5.4 0.48 5.5 0.47 5.8 0.59 5.0 0.49
No changes in prices 26.8 0.91 28.4 1.00 30.7 0.94 27.4 1.00 27.2 1.05
Decline in prices 12.9 0.65 13.8 0.86 13.1 0.69 12.3 0.71 8.4 0.58
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 69.7 1.04 46.9 1.08 51.8 0.98 60.7 1.12 66.1 1.11
Price increase more than current rate 48.4 1.10 28.1 0.98 32.8 0.93 40.4 1.14 45.1 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.74 14.9 0.78 14.4 0.69 15.9 0.80 16.2 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.40 3.9 0.39 4.6 0.43 4.4 0.50 4.8 0.49
No changes in prices 22.0 0.95 29.9 1.03 29.1 0.91 25.9 1.01 24.6 1.02
Decline in prices 8.3 0.54 23.2 0.95 19.1 0.78 13.4 0.84 9.3 0.66
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 72.5 0.98 70.1 1.06 70.3 0.91 70.4 1.02 68.8 1.06
Price increase more than current rate 46.4 1.13 43.3 1.11 45.5 1.01 44.8 1.10 45.7 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 21.1 0.81 21.2 0.92 19.1 0.79 20.3 0.88 18.5 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.43 5.6 0.49 5.7 0.47 5.3 0.50 4.6 0.50
No changes in prices 23.4 0.90 25.7 0.99 25.8 0.88 25.2 0.98 27.4 1.02
Decline in prices 4.1 0.38 4.2 0.52 3.9 0.38 4.4 0.44 3.8 0.47
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 88.1 0.74 84.6 0.87 84.8 0.73 86.5 0.77 88.0 0.80
Price increase more than current rate 63.6 1.13 55.9 1.12 59.6 1.00 59.5 1.09 62.9 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 21.4 0.88 24.3 0.93 20.4 0.82 22.9 0.92 21.2 0.95
Price increase less than current rate 3.2 0.37 4.4 0.46 4.7 0.43 4.1 0.44 3.9 0.43
No changes in prices 9.5 0.67 12.9 0.82 12.1 0.67 10.3 0.69 9.6 0.75
Decline in prices 2.4 0.30 2.5 0.35 3.1 0.35 3.2 0.39 2.4 0.33
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.8 0.73 75.3 1.00 77.3 0.85 77.7 0.97 80.5 0.96
Price increase more than current rate 56.0 1.14 45.2 1.10 48.3 0.99 48.4 1.10 53.0 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 24.3 0.93 24.1 0.96 22.5 0.82 24.0 0.93 22.6 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.40 6.0 0.50 6.4 0.51 5.4 0.48 4.9 0.49
No changes in prices 9.8 0.59 17.4 0.88 14.8 0.72 14.3 0.82 13.4 0.84
Decline in prices 5.4 0.42 7.3 0.63 7.9 0.55 8.0 0.58 6.1 0.55
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.6 0.80 74.3 1.04 75.7 0.87 75.0 0.98 80.4 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 53.1 1.14 44.0 1.13 47.3 1.00 45.6 1.13 52.8 1.22
Price increase similar to current rate 23.5 0.88 24.3 0.92 22.2 0.83 23.5 0.93 22.7 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.44 6.0 0.50 6.1 0.49 5.9 0.55 4.9 0.45
No changes in prices 14.1 0.72 18.7 0.97 18.2 0.78 19.3 0.89 15.0 0.84
Decline in prices 4.3 0.39 7.0 0.71 6.1 0.49 5.8 0.51 4.6 0.46
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 68.0 0.96 62.4 1.14 62.3 0.98 65.0 1.08 69.8 1.07
Price increase more than current rate 44.0 1.10 35.6 1.08 38.8 0.98 39.9 1.08 45.0 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 20.0 0.80 21.1 0.91 18.4 0.77 19.7 0.88 19.9 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.40 5.8 0.51 5.1 0.45 5.4 0.54 4.9 0.48
No changes in prices 21.2 0.84 26.0 1.01 26.5 0.88 24.6 1.01 22.1 0.97
Decline in prices 10.7 0.60 11.6 0.81 11.2 0.64 10.3 0.68 8.1 0.63
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 77.8 0.89 57.4 1.10 63.9 0.95 72.1 1.01 74.8 1.05
Price increase more than current rate 54.7 1.09 34.7 1.10 42.0 0.99 47.8 1.10 49.9 1.22
Price increase similar to current rate 19.0 0.83 18.4 0.88 17.4 0.75 19.8 0.87 20.2 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.39 4.3 0.43 4.6 0.43 4.5 0.44 4.7 0.48
No changes in prices 15.0 0.77 26.1 1.01 23.8 0.85 19.2 0.86 17.7 0.95
Decline in prices 7.2 0.50 16.5 0.83 12.2 0.67 8.7 0.65 7.5 0.61
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 82.5 0.79 75.6 1.06 76.8 0.86 77.2 0.98 78.5 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 54.6 1.15 46.1 1.11 48.5 1.01 49.0 1.11 51.1 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 23.0 0.87 23.7 0.90 22.0 0.83 22.2 0.87 22.9 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.44 5.8 0.50 6.3 0.50 6.1 0.55 4.6 0.45
No changes in prices 14.6 0.72 20.5 0.97 19.6 0.81 18.6 0.91 18.2 0.94
Decline in prices 2.9 0.33 3.9 0.57 3.6 0.37 4.2 0.45 3.3 0.41
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: January 2021
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.1 0.12 8.2 0.17 10.0 0.12 9.3 0.29 9.7 0.13 10.1 0.15
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.3 0.14 8.4 0.18 10.1 0.14 9.5 0.34 9.8 0.16 10.1 0.15
Female 8.7 0.14 7.7 0.21 9.7 0.15 8.9 0.24 9.5 0.17 9.7 0.39
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.0 0.63 7.9 0.78 9.5 0.59 8.8 0.78 8.8 0.53 8.5 0.82
Other Employees 8.8 0.19 7.7 0.25 9.7 0.19 8.8 0.24 9.4 0.22 9.4 0.40
Self Employed 9.5 0.19 8.8 0.38 10.0 0.19 9.4 0.46 9.7 0.23 10.1 0.33
Homemaker 8.6 0.17 7.7 0.23 9.6 0.17 8.8 0.23 9.2 0.20 9.2 0.36
Retired Persons 10.3 0.36 10.3 0.22 11.0 0.36 10.8 0.53 10.3 0.38 10.5 0.51
Daily Workers 9.2 0.26 8.4 0.33 10.1 0.25 9.6 0.45 9.9 0.31 10.1 0.35
Other category 8.8 0.23 7.9 0.40 9.6 0.23 9.0 0.36 9.7 0.26 9.8 0.42
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.3 0.20 7.4 0.28 9.3 0.20 8.6 0.25 9.4 0.22 9.5 0.48
25 to 30 years 8.9 0.20 8.0 0.24 9.8 0.20 9.0 0.29 9.4 0.23 9.6 0.44
30 to 35 years 8.8 0.20 7.9 0.29 9.6 0.20 8.9 0.31 9.5 0.23 9.7 0.42
35 to 40 years 9.1 0.20 8.3 0.25 9.9 0.20 9.2 0.38 9.7 0.23 9.8 0.34
40 to 45 years 9.4 0.23 8.3 0.33 10.3 0.22 9.9 0.38 9.7 0.26 9.7 0.43
45 to 50 years 9.5 0.25 9.2 0.55 10.3 0.25 10.1 0.29 9.8 0.32 10.2 0.21
50 to 55 years 9.6 0.30 9.5 0.61 10.2 0.29 10.0 0.43 9.4 0.36 10.1 0.41
55 to 60 years 9.8 0.32 9.7 0.50 10.6 0.32 10.4 0.28 10.0 0.40 10.6 0.28
60 years and above 10.3 0.29 10.1 0.37 10.9 0.28 10.5 0.24 10.1 0.34 10.2 0.30
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 10.3 0.44 10.0 0.44 11.6 0.42 11.6 1.19 11.7 0.37 12.5 1.59
Bengaluru 7.9 0.35 5.9 0.26 9.2 0.31 8.2 0.37 10.1 0.28 10.4 0.17
Bhopal 8.2 1.04 6.6 1.43 8.9 0.94 7.7 1.19 8.0 0.85 7.1 1.09
Bhubaneswar 10.3 1.05 10.2 1.77 11.8 1.07 13.6 2.21 10.4 1.29 12.1 2.00
Chennai 10.0 0.46 10.2 0.35 11.2 0.46 11.2 0.97 11.5 0.53 12.8 1.43
Delhi 8.8 0.32 8.0 0.44 9.6 0.33 8.7 0.45 9.1 0.37 8.8 0.40
Guwahati 11.9 0.73 12.5 2.25 12.3 0.75 13.4 2.19 11.4 0.74 12.7 1.96
Hyderabad 9.7 0.50 9.1 0.94 10.9 0.48 10.6 0.57 10.5 0.58 11.1 0.59
Jaipur 9.7 0.90 8.8 1.38 9.2 0.66 9.0 0.98 8.8 0.66 9.0 1.02
Kolkata 10.1 0.37 9.5 0.60 10.9 0.34 10.4 0.33 10.8 0.35 10.7 0.58
Lucknow 8.8 0.57 8.1 0.68 9.4 0.58 8.8 0.70 9.2 0.69 9.3 0.84
Mumbai 8.9 0.30 8.1 0.31 9.4 0.30 8.6 0.33 8.0 0.37 7.9 0.45
Nagpur 8.5 0.42 7.5 0.49 10.0 0.49 8.8 0.51 10.0 0.49 10.1 0.38
Patna 7.0 0.32 6.5 0.50 7.7 0.37 7.2 0.50 7.2 0.42 7.2 0.46
Thiruvananthapuram 5.6 0.60 5.1 0.43 6.9 0.65 6.1 0.48 8.2 0.85 8.5 1.45
Chandigarh 9.5 0.60 9.9 0.55 9.4 0.68 9.6 0.75 9.2 0.72 9.5 0.95
Ranchi 7.6 0.40 7.3 0.60 8.0 0.43 7.7 0.62 7.7 0.91 8.3 0.66
Raipur 6.5 0.41 5.7 0.21 8.0 0.44 7.5 0.46 10.2 0.98 10.2 0.91
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jan-20 8.7 0.11 7.6 0.19 9.5 0.11 8.6 0.16 9.3 0.13 9.2 0.25
Jul-20 10.0 0.11 9.9 0.21 10.8 0.11 10.5 0.06 9.8 0.14 10.3 0.08
Sep-20 9.9 0.10 9.8 0.25 10.8 0.10 10.4 0.07 9.9 0.12 10.3 0.08
Nov-20 9.5 0.11 8.8 0.18 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.09 9.8 0.13 10.1 0.11
Jan-21 9.1 0.12 8.2 0.17 10.0 0.12 9.3 0.29 9.7 0.13 10.1 0.15
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jan-20 66.1 66.2 53.4 59.3 64.5
Jul-20 62.8 61.0 49.9 43.6 58.4
Sep-20 62.1 61.0 50.4 45.9 60.5
Nov-20 62.7 63.5 52.4 54.0 60.7
Jan-21 63.3 64.3 54.5 55.7 62.8
One Year Ahead
Jan-20 72.2 70.9 60.3 67.8 72.8
Jul-20 63.9 64.5 55.2 51.2 65.7
Sep-20 63.0 64.8 55.5 53.6 66.6
Nov-20 66.4 65.9 56.7 62.1 68.9
Jan-21 68.4 68.6 60.6 63.0 69.0
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: January 2021
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 19 4 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27
1-<2 0 23 12 7 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46
2-<3 3 9 92 62 35 12 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 221
3-<4 0 2 7 89 69 45 16 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 238
4-<5 1 0 5 13 142 74 76 19 8 1 4 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 347
5-<6 0 1 13 31 21 450 174 241 102 12 112 5 3 1 0 11 2 1 1180
6-<7 0 0 1 7 4 7 183 63 64 17 20 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 372
7-<8 1 1 0 3 2 7 14 176 98 49 66 2 3 2 0 1 1 2 428
8-<9 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 6 247 67 120 11 11 3 4 2 4 2 497
9-<10 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 91 41 18 13 5 8 7 1 1 191
10-<11 0 0 1 1 3 41 3 10 27 9 403 45 162 53 12 180 87 1 1038
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 11 9 3 0 2 1 0 28
12-<13 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 2 0 23 3 13 15 8 0 70
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 7 4 0 20
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9 4 5 0 19
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 3 3 0 14 0 4 2 1 75 111 1 221
>=16 1 0 1 1 3 10 2 0 1 0 25 0 4 2 1 18 924 4 997
Total 25 41 134 217 286 659 484 528 558 247 810 92 239 82 50 322 1150 16 5940
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: January 2021
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 17 1 2 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27
1-<2 7 10 12 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 46
2-<3 30 1 67 30 45 28 3 5 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 221
3-<4 32 1 4 60 30 45 27 13 5 6 8 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 238
4-<5 37 1 4 5 71 67 75 32 24 10 12 2 1 0 3 1 2 0 347
5-<6 151 0 3 7 19 271 85 215 132 27 175 13 17 5 2 45 12 1 1180
6-<7 40 0 0 0 4 4 111 33 77 24 54 2 14 2 1 4 2 0 372
7-<8 54 0 0 1 1 4 4 103 59 72 81 10 20 5 3 8 2 1 428
8-<9 73 1 1 0 4 3 6 6 139 38 135 18 38 9 6 12 7 1 497
9-<10 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 43 40 24 21 7 8 14 4 0 191
10-<11 109 0 0 1 0 18 2 9 14 8 276 24 117 46 21 205 186 2 1038
11-<12 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 6 3 2 1 0 28
12-<13 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 15 5 13 14 16 0 70
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 7 5 1 20
14-<15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 10 0 19
15-<16 22 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 6 0 3 3 2 51 130 0 221
>=16 106 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 18 0 5 3 1 19 839 2 997
Total 717 15 93 113 182 448 317 419 455 228 811 105 255 94 71 388 1218 11 5940
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 यह सर्वेक्षण उत्तरदाताओं के अपेक्षित निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर परिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।

2 सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर डेटा बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल पर उपलब्ध हैं (वेबलिंक : https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=unitLevelData)।


2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
पुरालेख
Server 214
शीर्ष