617 भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक - प्रकाशन
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भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक

बेटी बचाओ, बेटी पढ़ाओ

प्रकाशन



2025-26 की चौथी तिमाही (Q4) के लिए सेवा और आधारभूत संरचना परिदृश्य का सर्वेक्षण

आज भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने 2025-26 की चौथी तिमाही के दौरान संचालित सेवा और आधारभूत संरचना (इन्फ्रास्ट्रक्चर) परिदृश्य (एसआइओएस) सर्वेक्षण के 48वें दौर का परिणाम जारी किया। यह भविष्योन्मुखी सर्वेक्षण,1 सेवा और आधारभूत संरचना क्षेत्रों में कार्यरत भारतीय कंपनियों की मांग की स्थिति, मूल्य स्थिति और अन्य व्यावसायिक मापदंडों से संबंधित गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और अपेक्षाओं को प्रदर्शित करता है। सर्वेक्षण2 के इस दौर में, 835 कंपनियों ने 2025-26 की चौथी तिमाही के लिए अपना मूल्यांकन और 2026-27 की पहली तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाओं के साथ-साथ क्रमिक दो तिमाहियों के लिए प्रमुख मापदंडों पर अपना दृष्टिकोण प्रदान किया।

विशेष:

अ. सेवा क्षेत्र

2025-26 की चौथी तिमाही के लिए मूल्यांकन

  • सेवा क्षेत्र की कंपनियों ने 2025-26 की चौथी तिमाही के दौरान समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति और अपने कारोबार में सुधार का मूल्यांकन किया (चार्ट 1 और तालिका A)।

  • रोजगार की स्थिति पर दृष्टिकोण सकारात्मक बना रहा, हालांकि पार्ट-टाइम रोजगार पर दृष्टिकोण पिछली सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में मंद हो गई।

  • उद्यमों ने इनपुट लागत और वेतन व्यय से उत्पन्न लागत दबाव बढ्ने का आकलन किया; हालांकि, वित्त लागत से उत्पन्न दबाव तिमाही के दौरान कम हुआ।

  • सेवा कंपनियों ने Q4:2025-26 के दौरान बिक्री मूल्य में नरमी का आकलन किया, जबकि उन्होंने लाभ मार्जिन में हल्का सुधार दर्ज किया।

2026-27 की पहली तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • सेवाएँ प्रदान करने वाली कंपनियाँ Q1:2026-27 में मांग की स्थितियों को लेकर आशावादी रहीं; हालांकि, कुल व्यवसाय की स्थिति और कारोबार को लेकर उनका आशावाद पिछले तिमाही की तुलना में कम हुआ (चार्ट 1 और तालिका A)।

  • कंपनियाँ इनपुट और वेतन लागत से बढ़े हुए दबाव की उम्मीद करती हैं; जबकि वित्तीय लागत का दबाव कम होने की संभावना है।

  • उत्तर देने वाली कंपनियों ने Q1:2026-27 में बिक्री मूल्य और लाभ मार्जिन में वृद्धि को लेकर कम आशावाद व्यक्त किया।

2026-27 की दूसरी और तीसरी तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • भविष्य में, प्रतिभागियों ने सेवा क्षेत्र में व्यावसायिक परिस्थितियों को लेकर 2026-27 की तीसरी तिमाही तक आशावाद बनाए रखा (तालिका C)।

  • इनपुट लागत दबाव बने रहने की संभावना है।

Chart 1: Turnover of Services Companies -Net Response

प्रतिक्रिया देने वाली सेवा क्षेत्र की कंपनियों ने बताया कि अपने मौजूदा संसाधनों के साथ वे 2025-26 की तीसरी तिमाही (Q3:2025-26) के दौरान 9.0 प्रतिशत अतिरिक्त सेवाएं प्रदान करने में सक्षम रहीं (तालिका S14)।

ब. पल्स सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम3

सेवा क्षेत्र की कंपनियों पर किए गए एक सर्वेक्षण से पता चला है कि उत्तर देने वाली लगभग 38 प्रतिशत कंपनियां आपूर्ति श्रृंखला में व्यवधान, ऊर्जा की उच्च लागत, इनपुट लागत और निर्यात ऑर्डर में गिरावट के कारण पश्चिम एशिया संघर्ष से प्रभावित हैं।

स. आधारभूत संरचना क्षेत्र

2025-26 की चौथी तिमाही के लिए मूल्यांकन

  • आधारभूत संरचना (इन्फ्रास्ट्रक्चर) कंपनियां, समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति और अपने कारोबार को लेकर आशावादी बनी रहीं; हालांकि, Q4:2025-26 के दौरान रोजगार स्थिति पर भावनाएं मंद हो गईं (चार्ट 2 और तालिका B)।

  • प्रतिभागियों ने लागत दबाव में कमी का आकलन किया, जबकि बिक्री मूल्य वृद्धि और लाभ मार्जिन की उम्मीदें मंद हो गईं।

2026-27 की पहली तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर कंपनियां Q1:2026-27 में समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति और मांग की परिस्थितियों को लेकर आशावादी बनी हुई हैं (चार्ट 2 और तालिका B)।

  • इनपुट लागत के दबाव उच्च बने रहने की संभावना है, जिससे बिक्री कीमतों और लाभ मार्जिन में वृद्धि की अपेक्षाएं सीमित रहने की संभावना है।

2026-27 की दूसरी और तीसरी तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर कंपनियां Q3:2026-27 तक मांग और रोजगार की परिस्थितियों को लेकर आश्वस्त हैं (तालिका D)।

  • इनपुट लागत के दबाव निकट भविष्य में बने रहने की संभावना है; इसके साथ ही विक्रय कीमतों में समानान्तर वृद्धि की संभावना है।

Chart 2: Turnover of Infrastructure Companies -Net Response

Summary of Net Responses4 on Survey Parameters

Table A: Services Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q3:2025-26* Q4:2025-26 Q4:2025-26* Q1:2026-27
Overall Business Situation 33.0 36.1 70.2 64.2
Turnover 32.5 38.1 69.4 66.7
Full-time Employees 20.8 24.0 46.1 50.0
Part-time Employees 18.5 12.8 45.7 41.6
Availability of Finance 22.9 23.9 52.8 48.3
Cost of Finance -25.4 -22.5 -45.6 -41.8
Salary & Wages -26.8 -29.2 -50.8 -62.8
Cost of Inputs -34.7 -35.5 -55.5 -58.9
Selling Price 14.6 12.5 47.1 42.8
Profit Margin 8.5 9.0 45.1 39.3
Inventories 20.1 17.5 47.3 39.5
Technical/Service Capacity 25.5 20.6 56.0 50.2
Physical Investment 22.9 15.6 54.4 47.9
*: Based on the previous round’s response.

Table B: Infrastructure Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q3:2025-26* Q4:2025-26 Q4:2025-26* Q1:2026-27
Overall Business Situation 27.3 29.5 69.8 71.9
Turnover 28.5 29.3 70.0 68.9
Full-time Employees 24.0 18.0 59.1 57.0
Part-time Employees 18.3 16.8 61.9 59.4
Availability of Finance 25.3 20.5 61.7 59.5
Cost of Finance -28.2 -13.6 -55.3 -49.2
Salary & Wages -27.3 -21.3 -58.4 -64.5
Cost of Inputs -49.3 -37.8 -68.8 -70.3
Selling Price 22.2 16.4 60.8 57.8
Profit Margin 13.4 5.8 63.1 50.8
Inventories 21.6 11.0 63.2 57.6
Technical/Service Capacity 21.7 18.0 69.4 62.2
Physical Investment 25.2 26.7 72.6 71.7
*: Based on the previous round’s response.

Expectations of Select Parameters for extended period – Net response
(in per cent)
Table C: Services Sector
Parameter Round 47 Round 48
Q4:2025-26 Q1:2026-27 Q2:2026-27 Q3:2026-27
Overall Business Situation 70.2 64.2 64.0 67.4
Turnover 69.4 66.7 66.5 69.5
Full-time Employees 46.1 50.0 50.3 49.6
Part-time Employees 45.7 41.6 43.5 43.7
Cost of Inputs -55.5 -58.9 -53.6 -53.7
Selling Price 47.1 42.8 41.5 44.6

Table D: Infrastructure Sector
Parameter Round 47 Round 48
Q4:2025-26 Q1:2026-27 Q2:2026-27 Q3:2026-27
Overall Business Situation 69.8 71.9 68.6 70.0
Turnover 70.0 68.9 71.9 74.2
Full-time Employees 59.1 57.0 58.2 61.2
Part-time Employees 61.9 59.4 60.2 64.5
Cost of Inputs -68.8 -70.3 -59.7 -64.4
Selling Price 60.8 57.8 60.9 65.1

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data

Services Sector

Table S1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q4:24-25 42.5 49.9 7.6 34.9 71.4 26.4 2.2 69.2
Q1:25-26 45.8 44.0 10.2 35.5 71.7 26.2 2.1 69.6
Q2:25-26 46.5 44.2 9.3 37.2 60.9 36.9 2.2 58.7
Q3:25-26 43.5 46.0 10.5 33.0 74.5 24.1 1.3 73.2
Q4:25-26 45.0 46.2 8.8 36.1 71.9 26.5 1.7 70.2
Q1:26-27         67.5 29.2 3.3 64.2
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table S2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 44.9 44.4 10.7 34.3 74.1 23.3 2.6 71.6
Q1:25-26 46.8 41.8 11.4 35.4 74.8 22.7 2.5 72.3
Q2:25-26 47.4 42.8 9.7 37.7 64.0 32.4 3.7 60.3
Q3:25-26 45.0 42.4 12.5 32.5 76.2 21.7 2.1 74.0
Q4:25-26 49.1 39.9 11.0 38.1 71.9 25.6 2.5 69.4
Q1:26-27         71.3 24.0 4.7 66.7
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 28.4 63.7 7.9 20.4 54.3 44.0 1.7 52.6
Q1:25-26 30.5 60.6 9.0 21.5 55.1 43.8 1.1 53.9
Q2:25-26 28.2 63.7 8.1 20.0 41.9 56.7 1.5 40.4
Q3:25-26 29.9 61.1 9.1 20.8 51.2 47.1 1.7 49.5
Q4:25-26 32.7 58.6 8.7 24.0 47.4 51.2 1.3 46.1
Q1:26-27         51.8 46.5 1.8 50.0
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 22.5 70.7 6.8 15.8 59.0 38.9 2.2 56.8
Q1:25-26 23.4 69.3 7.3 16.1 58.0 40.6 1.5 56.5
Q2:25-26 25.5 67.2 7.3 18.3 41.9 56.1 2.1 39.8
Q3:25-26 25.3 67.9 6.8 18.5 51.1 46.1 2.7 48.4
Q4:25-26 20.3 72.2 7.5 12.8 47.7 50.2 2.0 45.7
Q1:26-27         44.5 52.6 2.9 41.6
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q4:24-25 27.9 63.9 8.2 19.7 58.0 40.6 1.4 56.6
Q1:25-26 30.1 62.8 7.0 23.1 58.4 40.2 1.4 57.0
Q2:25-26 34.2 58.7 7.0 27.2 46.1 52.2 1.7 44.4
Q3:25-26 30.7 61.4 7.8 22.9 59.5 38.9 1.7 57.8
Q4:25-26 30.7 62.4 6.9 23.9 54.3 44.3 1.5 52.8
Q1:26-27         50.2 48.0 1.8 48.3
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 33.7 59.3 6.9 -26.8 61.1 37.0 1.9 -59.2
Q1:25-26 32.3 59.4 8.3 -23.9 61.5 36.4 2.0 -59.5
Q2:25-26 31.0 61.3 7.7 -23.3 44.1 51.4 4.4 -39.7
Q3:25-26 32.8 59.7 7.4 -25.4 51.6 44.4 4.0 -47.6
Q4:25-26 31.0 60.5 8.5 -22.5 48.9 47.7 3.3 -45.6
Q1:26-27         46.0 49.9 4.1 -41.8
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 29.5 66.4 4.0 -25.5 55.7 43.7 0.6 -55.1
Q1:25-26 42.2 54.4 3.4 -38.8 61.9 37.7 0.4 -61.5
Q2:25-26 33.8 61.6 4.6 -29.1 43.6 55.5 0.9 -42.7
Q3:25-26 31.2 64.3 4.4 -26.8 51.9 46.9 1.2 -50.8
Q4:25-26 33.9 61.5 4.6 -29.2 51.9 47.0 1.1 -50.8
Q1:26-27         64.0 34.9 1.2 -62.8
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 41.2 54.2 4.5 -36.7 69.4 30.1 0.5 -68.9
Q1:25-26 41.4 53.1 5.5 -35.9 70.1 29.0 0.9 -69.2
Q2:25-26 43.7 51.7 4.6 -39.1 54.3 44.7 1.0 -53.2
Q3:25-26 40.0 54.7 5.3 -34.7 55.3 42.9 1.8 -53.5
Q4:25-26 40.2 55.1 4.7 -35.5 56.6 42.4 1.1 -55.5
Q1:26-27         59.7 39.6 0.8 -58.9
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 21.2 72.4 6.4 14.8 57.9 39.8 2.3 55.6
Q1:25-26 22.9 69.6 7.5 15.4 57.4 41.1 1.6 55.8
Q2:25-26 23.7 68.6 7.7 16.0 39.4 58.4 2.2 37.2
Q3:25-26 23.2 68.3 8.5 14.6 48.6 48.6 2.8 45.8
Q4:25-26 19.9 72.8 7.3 12.5 49.0 49.0 2.0 47.1
Q1:26-27         44.4 54.0 1.6 42.8
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 21.2 65.1 13.6 7.6 52.6 43.7 3.7 48.9
Q1:25-26 24.4 59.3 16.3 8.1 53.0 43.3 3.7 49.3
Q2:25-26 29.0 56.4 14.6 14.4 39.2 56.1 4.6 34.6
Q3:25-26 25.4 57.6 16.9 8.5 54.8 40.3 4.9 49.9
Q4:25-26 23.7 61.6 14.7 9.0 49.4 46.3 4.3 45.1
Q1:26-27         44.9 49.5 5.6 39.3
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 26.5 65.6 7.9 18.6 55.0 43.6 1.4 53.6
Q1:25-26 22.8 68.6 8.6 14.3 56.1 41.9 2.0 54.1
Q2:25-26 26.7 64.2 9.1 17.6 41.9 55.3 2.9 39.0
Q3:25-26 28.6 62.9 8.5 20.1 55.4 42.0 2.6 52.7
Q4:25-26 25.0 67.5 7.5 17.5 49.9 47.5 2.6 47.3
Q1:26-27         42.4 54.6 2.9 39.5
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 22.0 73.2 4.8 17.1 64.3 35.0 0.7 63.6
Q1:25-26 23.3 73.0 3.7 19.7 62.7 37.3 0.0 62.7
Q2:25-26 28.4 65.7 5.9 22.4 46.0 53.7 0.3 45.7
Q3:25-26 29.7 66.1 4.2 25.5 56.6 41.8 1.6 54.9
Q4:25-26 25.6 69.4 5.0 20.6 56.3 43.4 0.3 56.0
Q1:26-27         50.6 49.0 0.4 50.2
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 20.2 74.4 5.4 14.8 61.5 37.7 0.9 60.6
Q1:25-26 20.8 75.8 3.4 17.5 58.0 41.6 0.4 57.6
Q2:25-26 25.5 68.4 6.0 19.5 43.1 56.0 0.9 42.3
Q3:25-26 27.4 68.1 4.5 22.9 57.3 41.2 1.5 55.9
Q4:25-26 20.3 75.0 4.7 15.6 54.9 44.6 0.5 54.4
Q1:26-27         47.9 52.1 0.0 47.9
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table S1 are applicable here.

Table S14: Estimated Spare Capacity for the Services Sector
Survey conducted during Reference quarter Response rate for the question on Spare Capacity
(per cent)		 Spare Capacity
(per cent)
Q3:2023-24 Q2:2023-24 74.0 11.8
Q4:2023-24 Q3:2023-24 74.8 11.7
Q1:2024-25 Q4:2023-24 78.8 11.3
Q2:2024-25 Q1:2024-25 71.5 11.2
Q3:2024-25 Q2:2024-25 79.9 10.6
Q4:2024-25 Q3:2024-25 83.7 10.9
Q1:2025-26 Q4:2024-25 65.7 11.2
Q2:2025-26 Q1:2025-26 80.0 10.7
Q3:2025-26 Q2:2025-26 77.4 10.1
Q4:2025-26 Q3:2025-26 79.6 9.0

Infrastructure Sector

Table I1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q4:24-25 44.4 49.0 6.5 37.9 70.9 25.2 3.9 66.9
Q1:25-26 41.3 49.6 9.1 32.2 72.2 24.5 3.3 68.9
Q2:25-26 44.0 47.3 8.8 35.2 69.2 28.2 2.6 66.7
Q3:25-26 41.3 44.7 14.0 27.3 71.1 25.6 3.3 67.8
Q4:25-26 39.3 50.8 9.8 29.5 70.5 28.9 0.7 69.8
Q1:26-27         74.4 23.1 2.5 71.9
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table I2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 45.5 46.1 8.4 37.0 72.7 24.2 3.1 69.5
Q1:25-26 46.2 42.0 11.8 34.5 75.2 20.9 3.9 71.2
Q2:25-26 46.7 41.3 12.0 34.8 69.2 26.5 4.3 65.0
Q3:25-26 43.0 42.4 14.6 28.5 75.6 18.9 5.6 70.0
Q4:25-26 39.8 49.6 10.6 29.3 72.0 26.0 2.0 70.0
Q1:26-27         73.8 21.3 4.9 68.9
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 29.9 63.6 6.5 23.4 48.4 48.4 3.1 45.3
Q1:25-26 22.7 70.6 6.7 16.0 61.2 37.5 1.3 59.9
Q2:25-26 28.4 61.4 10.2 18.2 56.5 41.7 1.7 54.8
Q3:25-26 33.3 57.3 9.3 24.0 49.4 46.0 4.6 44.8
Q4:25-26 28.7 60.7 10.7 18.0 59.1 40.9 0.0 59.1
Q1:26-27         58.7 39.7 1.7 57.0
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 31.5 65.4 3.1 28.5 62.0 34.0 4.0 58.0
Q1:25-26 19.1 75.5 5.3 13.8 62.8 34.1 3.1 59.7
Q2:25-26 23.7 69.7 6.6 17.1 66.3 31.5 2.2 64.1
Q3:25-26 27.5 63.4 9.2 18.3 50.7 44.0 5.3 45.3
Q4:25-26 27.1 62.6 10.3 16.8 63.5 34.9 1.6 61.9
Q1:26-27         60.4 38.7 0.9 59.4
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q4:24-25 34.0 59.5 6.5 27.5 60.8 37.6 1.6 59.2
Q1:25-26 22.7 68.1 9.2 13.4 71.8 26.2 2.0 69.8
Q2:25-26 41.3 51.1 7.6 33.7 63.5 34.8 1.7 61.7
Q3:25-26 36.7 52.0 11.3 25.3 65.9 30.8 3.3 62.6
Q4:25-26 27.9 64.8 7.4 20.5 62.4 36.9 0.7 61.7
Q1:26-27         61.2 37.2 1.7 59.5
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 40.1 49.3 10.5 -29.6 60.7 36.9 2.5 -58.2
Q1:25-26 25.0 65.8 9.2 -15.8 68.2 26.4 5.4 -62.8
Q2:25-26 33.8 57.5 8.8 -25.0 60.5 35.1 4.4 -56.1
Q3:25-26 39.4 49.3 11.3 -28.2 57.7 32.1 10.3 -47.4
Q4:25-26 26.3 61.0 12.7 -13.6 60.3 34.8 5.0 -55.3
Q1:26-27         56.8 35.6 7.6 -49.2
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 35.9 61.4 2.6 -33.3 47.6 52.4 0.0 -47.6
Q1:25-26 30.0 65.0 5.0 -25.0 66.7 32.7 0.7 -66.0
Q2:25-26 28.3 69.6 2.2 -26.1 63.5 34.8 1.7 -61.7
Q3:25-26 32.0 63.3 4.7 -27.3 48.4 49.5 2.2 -46.2
Q4:25-26 27.9 65.6 6.6 -21.3 58.4 41.6 0.0 -58.4
Q1:26-27         64.5 35.5 0.0 -64.5
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 52.3 43.0 4.6 -47.7 70.4 29.6 0.0 -70.4
Q1:25-26 39.8 53.1 7.1 -32.7 74.3 22.4 3.3 -71.1
Q2:25-26 52.7 42.9 4.4 -48.4 74.3 22.9 2.8 -71.6
Q3:25-26 55.6 38.2 6.3 -49.3 60.0 37.8 2.2 -57.8
Q4:25-26 45.4 47.1 7.6 -37.8 70.9 27.0 2.1 -68.8
Q1:26-27         72.9 24.6 2.5 -70.3
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 30.1 65.4 4.5 25.6 56.4 43.6 0.0 56.4
Q1:25-26 22.9 67.6 9.5 13.3 62.9 36.4 0.8 62.1
Q2:25-26 30.0 65.0 5.0 25.0 63.4 33.7 3.0 60.4
Q3:25-26 31.7 58.7 9.5 22.2 50.0 43.6 6.4 43.6
Q4:25-26 25.5 65.5 9.1 16.4 63.2 34.4 2.4 60.8
Q1:26-27         59.6 38.5 1.8 57.8
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 27.5 61.4 11.1 16.3 55.2 40.0 4.8 50.4
Q1:25-26 23.3 60.3 16.4 6.9 61.8 34.2 3.9 57.9
Q2:25-26 35.6 52.2 12.2 23.3 55.7 40.0 4.3 51.3
Q3:25-26 30.9 51.7 17.4 13.4 53.9 39.3 6.7 47.2
Q4:25-26 23.3 59.2 17.5 5.8 67.8 27.5 4.7 63.1
Q1:26-27         57.5 35.8 6.7 50.8
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 37.2 52.4 10.3 26.9 62.4 35.9 1.7 60.7
Q1:25-26 24.8 67.3 8.0 16.8 74.1 22.4 3.5 70.6
Q2:25-26 39.7 51.3 9.0 30.8 62.7 32.7 4.5 58.2
Q3:25-26 33.1 55.4 11.5 21.6 59.7 35.1 5.2 54.5
Q4:25-26 26.3 58.5 15.3 11.0 66.9 29.4 3.7 63.2
Q1:26-27         61.9 33.9 4.2 57.6
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 34.8 62.6 2.6 32.2 68.8 30.0 1.3 67.5
Q1:25-26 20.7 73.2 6.1 14.6 72.6 27.4 0.0 72.6
Q2:25-26 29.4 66.2 4.4 25.0 72.2 26.6 1.3 70.9
Q3:25-26 29.6 62.6 7.8 21.7 59.1 39.4 1.5 57.6
Q4:25-26 25.0 68.0 7.0 18.0 70.3 28.8 0.9 69.4
Q1:26-27         62.2 37.8 0.0 62.2
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

Table I13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:24-25 34.1 63.4 2.4 31.7 71.1 28.9 0.0 71.1
Q1:25-26 25.0 70.2 4.8 20.2 73.8 26.2 0.0 73.8
Q2:25-26 33.8 63.2 2.9 30.9 77.8 22.2 0.0 77.8
Q3:25-26 32.2 60.9 7.0 25.2 68.2 30.3 1.5 66.7
Q4:25-26 33.7 59.4 6.9 26.7 72.6 27.4 0.0 72.6
Q1:26-27         71.7 28.3 0.0 71.7
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table I1 are applicable here.

1 सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जिन्हें आवश्यक रूप से रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा नहीं किया जाता है।

2 पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर के परिणाम 06 फरवरी 2026 को बैंक की वेबसाइट पर जारी किए गए।

3 यह सर्वेक्षण 5 से 18 मार्च, 2026 के दौरान किया गया था, जिसमें 258 सेवा फर्मों ने जवाब दिया।

4 Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Positive value indicates expansion/optimism and negative value indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D); where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/ equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100).  For example, increase in turnover is optimism whereas decrease in cost of inputs is optimism.

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