प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के मई 2020 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविड-19 महामारी के चलते सर्वेक्षण टेलीफ़ोन पर, मई 5 से मई 17, 2020 के बीच 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम 5,761 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष :

i. सर्वेक्षण के मार्च 2020 चक्र की तुलना में मई 2020 में परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं में तीव्र वृद्धि हुई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b]।

ii. तीन महीने आगे के लिए मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं मात्रात्मक संदर्भ में अगले वर्ष की मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं से आगे निकाल गई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]।

iii. पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र की तुलना में, मई 2020 चक्र में परिवारों के तीन महीने आगे और एक वर्ष आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं क्रमशः 190 और 120 आधार अंक से बढ़ गई [तालिका 3]।

iv. खाद्य उत्पादों पर मूल्य बढ़ने के दबाव की अपेक्षा करते हुये, अधिक परिवारों ने सामान्य कीमतों और मुद्रास्फीति में पिछले दौर की तुलना में अगले तीन महीने में वृद्धि की उम्मीद की है [तालिका 1a]। हालांकि, सभी उत्पाद समूहों की कीमतें, विशेष रूप से आवास की कीमतें, अगले एक वर्ष में कम होने की उम्मीद है [तालिका 1b]।

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 78.3 1.01 80.7 0.90 83.2 0.87 83.3 0.79 85.3 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 50.0 1.22 52.4 1.22 56.1 1.16 52.5 1.10 56.0 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 25.6 1.01 23.4 0.96 23.4 0.91 25.6 0.99 23.5 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 2.8 0.32 4.9 0.55 3.6 0.37 5.2 0.56 5.8 0.49
No changes in prices 18.4 0.96 17.3 0.84 14.4 0.81 14.9 0.76 12.4 0.69
Decline in prices 3.3 0.35 1.9 0.26 2.4 0.31 1.8 0.25 2.3 0.32
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 78.5 0.87 81.8 0.80 81.7 0.80 81.9 0.81 84.6 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 48.5 1.13 54.8 1.14 56.0 1.11 55.4 1.02 58.6 1.00
Price increase similar to current rate 24.7 0.94 21.0 0.85 20.1 0.85 20.0 0.88 20.0 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.46 6.0 0.54 5.5 0.45 6.5 0.56 6.0 0.49
No changes in prices 15.0 0.77 12.3 0.65 11.2 0.67 12.4 0.68 10.7 0.64
Decline in prices 6.5 0.47 5.9 0.48 7.2 0.50 5.7 0.43 4.7 0.45
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.8 0.91 75.3 0.93 77.8 0.91 77.8 0.87 76.7 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 45.2 1.15 48.0 1.14 51.4 1.15 50.8 1.00 49.5 0.99
Price increase similar to current rate 25.3 0.91 21.1 0.86 21.2 0.88 20.8 0.89 20.8 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.44 6.1 0.53 5.3 0.43 6.2 0.50 6.4 0.50
No changes in prices 18.1 0.81 20.5 0.83 17.7 0.82 17.7 0.79 17.8 0.79
Decline in prices 6.0 0.47 4.3 0.39 4.4 0.39 4.5 0.42 5.5 0.49
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 61.3 1.12 55.2 1.09 60.3 1.02 64.5 1.02 55.1 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 37.0 1.12 35.4 1.06 37.9 1.03 42.3 1.03 33.6 0.96
Price increase similar to current rate 19.9 0.85 15.2 0.73 17.5 0.76 17.2 0.80 16.4 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.41 4.6 0.44 4.8 0.43 5.0 0.44 5.1 0.44
No changes in prices 27.2 1.01 29.1 0.93 26.8 0.91 24.2 0.90 29.7 0.94
Decline in prices 11.5 0.64 15.8 0.73 12.9 0.65 11.2 0.63 15.2 0.76
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 70.9 1.06 68.5 1.09 69.7 1.04 71.0 1.07 48.6 1.01
Price increase more than current rate 46.9 1.13 48.3 1.19 48.4 1.10 49.5 1.10 30.2 0.93
Price increase similar to current rate 19.8 0.83 16.4 0.77 17.3 0.74 17.4 0.78 13.6 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.41 4.0 0.40 4.2 0.39 4.8 0.45
No changes in prices 21.7 0.96 24.0 0.99 22.0 0.95 22.1 0.96 30.3 0.93
Decline in prices 7.3 0.52 7.4 0.53 8.3 0.54 6.9 0.52 21.1 0.83
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 68.6 1.03 65.8 1.05 72.5 0.98 70.8 0.99 68.3 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 42.6 1.14 43.6 1.14 46.4 1.13 46.2 1.02 43.2 0.99
Price increase similar to current rate 21.7 0.89 17.7 0.79 21.1 0.81 19.3 0.84 19.3 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.41 4.5 0.46 4.9 0.43 5.2 0.44 5.9 0.46
No changes in prices 27.7 0.99 29.5 1.01 23.4 0.90 25.9 0.94 27.4 0.93
Decline in prices 3.8 0.37 4.7 0.43 4.1 0.38 3.3 0.34 4.4 0.42
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 86.3 0.77 89.1 0.71 88.1 0.74 89.2 0.65 85.6 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 58.5 1.19 64.0 1.25 63.6 1.13 60.7 1.07 57.1 1.00
Price increase similar to current rate 24.9 1.03 21.5 0.96 21.4 0.88 24.8 1.00 23.8 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 3.0 0.32 3.6 0.44 3.2 0.37 3.7 0.42 4.7 0.43
No changes in prices 10.2 0.70 8.9 0.64 9.5 0.67 9.0 0.62 11.9 0.67
Decline in prices 3.5 0.37 2.0 0.28 2.4 0.30 1.8 0.26 2.5 0.33
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.1 0.76 86.2 0.74 84.8 0.73 85.6 0.73 77.3 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 50.4 1.19 58.9 1.24 56.0 1.14 55.6 1.10 46.9 1.01
Price increase similar to current rate 27.6 0.97 22.4 0.90 24.3 0.93 24.3 0.93 24.2 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.43 5.0 0.49 4.5 0.40 5.7 0.49 6.3 0.51
No changes in prices 11.4 0.64 9.4 0.61 9.8 0.59 10.3 0.64 15.7 0.74
Decline in prices 5.5 0.43 4.4 0.39 5.4 0.42 4.1 0.37 6.9 0.52
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.3 0.81 81.0 0.82 81.6 0.80 82.3 0.81 73.3 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 49.7 1.18 53.5 1.23 53.1 1.14 53.6 1.08 42.6 0.99
Price increase similar to current rate 26.8 0.99 22.6 0.92 23.5 0.88 23.4 0.92 23.9 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.44 4.9 0.51 5.1 0.44 5.3 0.47 6.8 0.51
No changes in prices 13.7 0.72 15.5 0.72 14.1 0.72 14.2 0.73 20.7 0.84
Decline in prices 5.0 0.43 3.6 0.36 4.3 0.39 3.4 0.36 6.0 0.49
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 68.8 1.04 65.4 1.00 68.0 0.96 70.8 1.02 59.6 1.03
Price increase more than current rate 42.9 1.14 42.7 1.16 44.0 1.10 46.6 1.09 34.8 0.99
Price increase similar to current rate 21.9 0.88 18.1 0.80 20.0 0.80 19.8 0.86 19.1 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.40 4.6 0.46 4.0 0.40 4.4 0.42 5.7 0.47
No changes in prices 21.5 0.91 22.5 0.84 21.2 0.84 19.7 0.87 28.4 0.93
Decline in prices 9.7 0.59 12.1 0.62 10.7 0.60 9.5 0.59 12.1 0.67
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 79.8 0.84 80.0 0.92 77.8 0.89 79.9 0.90 59.7 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 54.3 1.05 57.1 1.20 54.7 1.09 56.5 1.03 36.9 0.98
Price increase similar to current rate 21.9 0.84 19.1 0.85 19.0 0.83 19.6 0.82 17.3 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 3.6 0.37 3.9 0.41 4.1 0.39 3.8 0.39 5.5 0.46
No changes in prices 14.3 0.77 13.9 0.76 15.0 0.77 14.5 0.78 25.1 0.89
Decline in prices 5.9 0.45 6.1 0.48 7.2 0.50 5.5 0.47 15.2 0.73
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 80.9 0.83 80.9 0.87 82.5 0.79 81.4 0.85 74.4 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 50.3 1.12 53.7 1.23 54.6 1.15 53.0 1.09 44.6 0.98
Price increase similar to current rate 25.3 0.94 22.3 0.86 23.0 0.87 23.3 0.90 23.1 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.49 4.9 0.51 4.9 0.44 5.0 0.44 6.7 0.50
No changes in prices 15.5 0.77 15.9 0.77 14.6 0.72 16.0 0.81 22.1 0.87
Decline in prices 3.6 0.36 3.2 0.36 2.9 0.33 2.7 0.30 3.5 0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: May 2020
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.6 0.09 9.3 0.28 10.6 0.09 10.4 0.06 9.7 0.12 10.2 0.07
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.7 0.11 9.5 0.33 10.6 0.11 10.4 0.08 9.6 0.14 10.2 0.09
Female 9.5 0.14 9.2 0.32 10.6 0.14 10.3 0.09 9.7 0.18 10.2 0.12
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.6 0.39 9.1 0.88 10.6 0.43 10.1 0.62 9.8 0.51 9.7 0.91
Other Employees 9.5 0.16 8.8 0.27 10.6 0.16 10.3 0.11 9.8 0.20 10.2 0.12
Self Employed 9.8 0.16 9.6 0.41 10.6 0.16 10.4 0.11 9.7 0.20 10.2 0.16
Homemaker 9.4 0.16 8.9 0.29 10.5 0.16 10.2 0.10 9.4 0.20 10.0 0.29
Retired Persons 9.8 0.39 9.8 0.66 10.7 0.39 10.5 0.34 9.6 0.45 10.2 0.56
Daily Workers 10.1 0.23 10.0 0.23 11.1 0.22 10.8 0.28 10.2 0.28 10.6 0.20
Other category 9.3 0.23 8.6 0.49 10.3 0.22 10.2 0.14 9.9 0.25 10.3 0.16
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 9.1 0.17 8.4 0.34 10.4 0.17 10.2 0.12 9.8 0.21 10.2 0.14
25 to 30 years 9.5 0.18 9.1 0.40 10.6 0.17 10.3 0.14 9.9 0.21 10.2 0.19
30 to 35 years 9.3 0.19 8.7 0.37 10.3 0.19 10.2 0.18 9.3 0.23 9.4 0.55
35 to 40 years 9.6 0.18 9.2 0.40 10.6 0.18 10.3 0.12 9.5 0.21 9.9 0.36
40 to 45 years 10.0 0.20 10.0 0.29 10.9 0.19 10.5 0.15 10.2 0.24 10.6 0.16
45 to 50 years 9.7 0.22 9.4 0.45 10.7 0.22 10.4 0.13 9.7 0.26 10.2 0.34
50 to 55 years 9.8 0.28 9.7 0.54 10.6 0.28 10.4 0.20 9.8 0.34 10.2 0.28
55 to 60 years 9.7 0.30 9.3 0.54 10.7 0.28 10.4 0.23 9.6 0.35 10.1 0.36
60 years and above 10.0 0.32 10.1 0.32 11.0 0.32 10.8 0.51 10.2 0.39 10.6 0.39
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 10.5 0.34 10.3 0.26 11.6 0.33 11.5 0.79 9.8 0.48 10.5 0.68
Bengaluru 9.8 0.28 10.1 0.25 10.6 0.28 10.4 0.24 10.2 0.34 10.5 0.31
Bhopal 11.1 0.64 10.9 1.16 11.7 0.62 12.0 1.68 9.7 0.82 10.8 1.50
Bhubaneswar 8.5 0.79 7.7 1.73 10.3 0.72 9.7 1.40 9.8 0.92 9.3 1.94
Chennai 10.6 0.39 10.4 0.15 11.6 0.35 11.2 0.86 11.5 0.42 12.0 1.33
Delhi 8.2 0.23 6.9 0.50 9.1 0.23 8.2 0.30 8.3 0.27 8.1 0.31
Guwahati 9.6 0.57 9.5 1.30 10.0 0.60 9.6 1.16 8.4 0.94 7.7 1.28
Hyderabad 10.3 0.37 10.3 0.27 12.1 0.34 13.1 1.11 12.0 0.41 14.0 1.11
Jaipur 10.1 0.57 9.9 0.66 10.8 0.52 10.7 0.59 8.7 0.65 9.3 0.99
Kolkata 10.8 0.30 10.4 0.18 11.5 0.29 11.3 0.88 10.9 0.35 10.9 0.62
Lucknow 8.8 0.43 8.8 0.57 9.9 0.49 10.2 0.57 9.7 0.49 10.3 0.31
Mumbai 10.0 0.23 9.0 0.37 10.9 0.23 10.3 0.19 8.8 0.32 9.3 0.61
Nagpur 8.4 0.42 7.9 0.66 10.1 0.47 9.9 0.46 9.2 0.64 9.7 0.72
Patna 9.4 0.50 9.7 0.31 10.9 0.69 11.1 0.69 11.0 0.76 11.6 1.14
Thiruvananthapuram 6.3 0.65 5.2 0.33 8.1 0.82 6.6 0.64 8.5 0.86 7.4 0.79
Chandigarh 8.1 0.54 8.3 0.58 8.0 0.54 8.0 0.69 7.5 0.60 7.9 0.82
Ranchi 7.8 0.53 7.0 0.66 8.7 0.60 8.0 0.88 7.5 0.72 7.2 0.72
Raipur 8.7 0.63 7.9 0.79 10.4 0.63 9.9 0.74 10.2 0.79 10.1 0.72
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
May-19 7.8 0.10 6.6 0.15 8.6 0.10 7.6 0.12 8.4 0.12 8.1 0.16
Nov-19 9.1 0.10 8.2 0.17 9.8 0.11 9.2 0.23 9.7 0.12 9.9 0.19
Jan-20 8.7 0.11 7.6 0.19 9.5 0.11 8.6 0.16 9.3 0.13 9.2 0.25
Mar-20 8.4 0.09 7.6 0.12 9.2 0.10 8.5 0.11 9.1 0.11 9.0 0.18
May-20 9.6 0.09 9.3 0.28 10.6 0.09 10.4 0.06 9.7 0.12 10.2 0.07
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
May-19 66.4 65.4 56.8 62.0 66.2
Nov-19 64.7 65.1 51.0 60.7 63.1
Jan-20 66.1 66.2 53.4 59.3 64.5
Mar-20 65.4 64.6 55.8 61.1 64.7
May-20 63.3 59.8 46.5 42.6 57.3
One Year Ahead
May-19 71.6 71.3 62.7 70.7 72.5
Nov-19 73.9 70.9 57.8 69.7 72.3
Jan-20 72.2 70.9 60.3 67.8 72.8
Mar-20 71.9 71.8 63.2 69.9 72.3
May-20 62.3 59.5 50.9 50.3 62.3
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2020
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 14 3 5 1 1 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 31
1-<2 0 19 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35
2-<3 0 6 80 56 38 16 6 4 3 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 213
3-<4 1 2 4 97 40 76 21 7 5 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 256
4-<5 0 1 4 8 122 68 73 17 9 1 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 312
5-<6 5 2 10 26 19 368 99 148 87 12 130 0 6 0 0 15 4 0 931
6-<7 1 1 0 6 4 10 131 56 51 19 26 5 5 0 0 1 0 0 316
7-<8 0 0 2 1 4 8 7 167 50 54 59 6 9 0 3 7 2 0 379
8-<9 1 1 0 0 1 12 8 0 150 36 112 8 24 9 1 9 7 0 379
9-<10 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 3 74 39 20 33 6 4 11 2 0 196
10-<11 1 0 0 2 2 42 5 9 18 12 436 35 159 37 8 249 120 1 1136
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 6 7 4 6 4 0 40
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 1 34 14 11 29 8 0 103
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 11 0 21
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 13 4 11 0 29
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 13 1 4 1 0 89 152 0 265
>=16 2 0 2 0 1 7 0 4 0 1 36 0 3 2 0 38 1017 6 1119
Total 25 35 117 204 232 615 354 415 377 209 869 88 285 78 46 464 1340 8 5761
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2020
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 12 6 4 2 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 31
1-<2 9 10 4 7 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35
2-<3 18 2 62 42 34 24 12 7 3 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 213
3-<4 34 0 4 55 34 62 26 12 13 2 11 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 256
4-<5 33 0 7 7 89 47 60 19 26 2 9 1 5 1 0 3 3 0 312
5-<6 121 1 6 10 9 255 65 120 89 20 170 4 18 7 2 21 11 2 931
6-<7 40 0 0 5 4 4 90 40 45 19 42 7 11 1 1 4 3 0 316
7-<8 60 1 2 4 4 3 5 113 48 35 60 2 14 0 11 10 6 1 379
8-<9 57 0 0 1 1 5 3 4 85 30 92 23 35 8 6 13 16 0 379
9-<10 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 45 31 24 19 10 15 18 7 0 196
10-<11 158 0 0 1 0 22 5 7 9 4 282 33 112 37 20 223 221 2 1136
11-<12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 4 6 4 9 0 40
12-<13 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 27 8 16 21 20 0 103
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 3 4 9 0 21
14-<15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 16 0 29
15-<16 39 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 13 2 1 1 0 51 153 2 265
>=16 156 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 1 0 27 0 0 1 1 27 892 6 1119
Total 778 20 89 134 178 436 267 326 322 158 747 111 244 82 87 400 1369 13 5761
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा द्विमासिक अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, उत्तरदाताओं के अपेक्षित निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी दिशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर परिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।


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