प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने नवंबर 2018 चक्र के मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम विभिन्न व्यावसायिक श्रेणियों को कवर करते हुए 5,802 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित है।

विशेष:

i. सितम्बर 2018 चक्र के मुक़ाबले ऐसे उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में, जिन्हे आशंका है कि अगले 3 महीनों में सामान्य कीमतें वर्तमान दर से अधिक दर से बढ़ेंगी, मामूली गिरावट आई (तालिका 1 a और b)।

ii. अगले एक वर्ष के लिए अपेक्षाएँ व्यापक रूप से अपरिवर्तित थीं।

iii. मात्रात्मक परिणामों में भी सितंबर 2018 चक्र के मुक़ाबले तीन महीने आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएँ 40 आधार अंकों से घटीं; हालांकि, एक साल आगे के लिए उम्मीदें अपरिवर्तित बनी रहीं (चार्ट 1, तालिका 2)।

iv. पिछले चक्र के मुक़ाबले नवंबर 2018 चक्र में हालांकि मौजूदा धारणाओं और अल्पकालिक मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं के बीच का अंतर कम हुआ है, परंतु वर्तमान धारणाओं और मध्यम अवधि की अपेक्षाओं के बीच का अंतर बढ़ा है।

टिप्पणी: कृपया समय शृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फाइल देखें।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Round Nov-17 May-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Nov-18
Options: General Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 81.4 82.3 83.8 80.4 0.92 77.9 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 53.2 50.5 50.1 49.1 1.15 47.4 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 23.1 25.1 26.4 27.6 1.00 25.6 1.00
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 6.7 7.3 3.7 0.38 4.9 0.59
No change in prices 16.3 16.0 14.6 17.4 0.88 19.2 0.87
Decline in prices 2.3 1.7 1.6 2.2 0.31 2.9 0.33
Options: Food Product              
Prices will increase 80.3 82.0 81.4 79.5 0.89 77.2 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 50.4 48.3 47.8 48.9 1.12 46.4 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 23.2 24.5 24.8 24.5 0.91 23.6 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 6.7 9.3 8.7 6.1 0.48 7.3 0.63
No change in prices 12.9 13.5 13.3 15.5 0.82 16.9 0.81
Decline in prices 6.8 4.5 5.3 4.9 0.40 5.9 0.46
Options: Non-Food Product              
Prices will increase 75.7 78.4 78.2 78.9 0.87 75.8 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 47.1 45.8 44.5 47.5 1.11 45.2 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 21.9 24.0 24.4 25.3 0.91 24.1 0.94
Price increase less than current rate 6.7 8.6 9.3 6.1 0.48 6.5 0.61
No change in prices 19.5 18.1 17.7 17.1 0.81 18.5 0.79
Decline in prices 4.8 3.6 4.1 4.0 0.38 5.8 0.48
Options: Household Durables              
Prices will increase 61.9 63.2 58.7 56.6 1.05 57.9 1.06
Price increase more than current rate 38.6 36.7 32.6 32.4 1.05 33.8 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 17.4 19.9 19.1 19.5 0.80 18.9 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 6.6 7.1 4.7 0.41 5.2 0.50
No change in prices 26.8 26.8 30.9 30.8 0.98 29.7 0.98
Decline in prices 11.3 10.0 10.4 12.5 0.66 12.4 0.66
Options: Housing Prices              
Prices will increase 70.5 71.6 71.6 67.1 0.92 68.7 0.96
Price increase more than current rate 48.4 47.6 45.3 45.2 1.02 44.5 1.05
Price increase similar to current rate 17.0 18.2 19.9 17.9 0.78 19.0 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 5.8 6.4 4.0 0.40 5.2 0.51
No change in prices 20.1 20.8 20.7 24.1 0.87 23.7 0.88
Decline in prices 9.5 7.7 7.7 8.8 0.59 7.6 0.54
Options: Cost of Services              
Prices will increase 71.1 72.0 70.8 67.7 1.04 68.2 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 44.3 42.9 40.8 41.8 1.15 40.4 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 20.7 22.6 22.8 21.0 0.89 22.4 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 6.6 7.3 5.0 0.43 5.3 0.48
No change in prices 25.8 25.6 26.5 29.6 1.01 28.8 0.97
Decline in prices 3.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 0.33 3.0 0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses for the September and November 2018 rounds. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Round Nov-17 May-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Nov-18
Options: General Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 92.8 91.1 91.6 88.3 0.77 89.7 0.65
Price increase more than current rate 64.1 62.6 59.8 59.7 1.15 60.0 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 23.8 23.4 25.8 25.3 0.97 26.4 0.97
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 5.0 6.0 3.3 0.35 3.4 0.43
No change in prices 5.5 6.5 6.5 9.1 0.69 7.6 0.57
Decline in prices 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.6 0.32 2.7 0.33
Options: Food Product              
Prices will increase 85.7 85.6 85.1 84.8 0.78 85.4 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 54.0 53.4 51.4 52.5 1.16 52.3 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 25.2 25.2 26.5 27.0 0.96 27.5 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 6.5 7.0 7.1 5.3 0.45 5.7 0.51
No change in prices 9.0 9.4 9.7 9.7 0.64 9.4 0.60
Decline in prices 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.5 0.45 5.2 0.45
Options: Non-Food Product              
Prices will increase 81.4 82.7 83.3 82.3 0.79 82.4 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 51.2 51.1 49.1 51.0 1.18 51.6 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 23.5 25.3 26.6 26.1 0.91 25.2 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 6.8 6.3 7.6 5.2 0.44 5.6 0.50
No change in prices 14.4 13.2 12.7 13.1 0.70 12.7 0.68
Decline in prices 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.6 0.40 4.9 0.43
Options: Household Durables              
Prices will increase 71.0 72.5 70.6 67.5 0.97 70.1 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 44.5 45.2 41.6 40.7 1.10 43.0 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 20.7 21.5 21.8 22.0 0.83 22.0 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 5.8 7.2 4.8 0.42 5.1 0.47
No change in prices 20.3 19.2 21.2 22.6 0.84 20.4 0.85
Decline in prices 8.7 8.3 8.2 10.0 0.58 9.6 0.61
Options: Housing Prices              
Prices will increase 78.8 79.8 81.0 77.9 0.89 80.6 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 54.5 55.2 53.0 52.9 1.08 53.8 1.04
Price increase similar to current rate 19.4 19.6 21.5 21.0 0.87 22.5 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 5.0 6.5 4.0 0.38 4.3 0.44
No change in prices 13.6 13.9 13.3 15.1 0.74 13.3 0.68
Decline in prices 7.7 6.3 5.7 7.0 0.52 6.1 0.50
Options: Cost of Services              
Prices will increase 83.4 84.2 84.1 82.0 0.81 83.3 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 51.5 52.9 49.5 49.7 1.18 52.2 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 25.2 24.4 26.6 27.3 0.96 25.7 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 6.7 6.9 8.0 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.48
No change in prices 14.0 13.5 13.7 15.6 0.76 13.5 0.68
Decline in prices 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 0.29 3.1 0.34
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses for the September and November 2018 rounds. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: November 2018
  Current Three months ahead One year ahead
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.1 0.11 8.2 0.18 9.7 0.12 9.0 0.22 9.6 0.12 9.8 0.25
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.1 0.14 8.3 0.19 9.7 0.14 9.0 0.27 9.5 0.16 9.7 0.29
Female 9.2 0.17 8.6 0.35 9.8 0.17 9.4 0.40 9.9 0.20 10.1 0.20
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.1 0.58 7.2 0.69 9.7 0.59 8.3 0.80 9.3 0.66 8.5 0.79
Other Employees 9.0 0.20 8.2 0.24 9.5 0.21 8.8 0.30 9.3 0.24 9.3 0.41
Self Employed 8.7 0.19 8.0 0.29 9.3 0.20 8.9 0.38 9.2 0.24 9.8 0.39
Homemaker 9.4 0.18 9.0 0.44 9.9 0.19 9.6 0.43 9.9 0.22 10.2 0.18
Retired Persons 10.5 0.43 10.3 0.19 10.8 0.43 10.7 0.38 10.5 0.49 10.9 0.55
Daily Workers 9.5 0.32 8.7 0.55 10.0 0.31 9.4 0.58 9.5 0.36 9.4 0.61
Other category 8.6 0.25 7.5 0.33 9.1 0.26 8.4 0.28 9.4 0.28 9.4 0.56
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.4 0.19 7.1 0.26 9.0 0.20 8.1 0.21 9.4 0.24 9.0 0.36
25 to 30 years 8.7 0.19 7.9 0.28 9.2 0.19 8.5 0.22 9.3 0.23 9.5 0.37
30 to 35 years 9.2 0.22 8.5 0.35 9.8 0.22 9.4 0.44 9.6 0.25 9.8 0.40
35 to 40 years 9.1 0.22 8.5 0.44 9.8 0.23 9.5 0.46 9.8 0.25 10.0 0.27
40 to 45 years 9.6 0.24 9.1 0.55 10.1 0.24 10.0 0.29 9.8 0.28 10.2 0.25
45 to 50 years 9.3 0.26 8.6 0.44 10.0 0.27 9.7 0.47 9.9 0.31 9.9 0.48
50 to 55 years 9.6 0.32 9.3 0.66 10.1 0.32 10.1 0.37 9.9 0.38 10.1 0.48
55 to 60 years 9.9 0.40 9.6 0.69 10.5 0.38 10.1 0.50 9.9 0.42 10.0 0.61
60 years and above 10.0 0.39 9.9 0.50 10.5 0.40 10.2 0.41 10.5 0.42 11.0 0.56
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 9.8 0.48 9.4 0.75 11.0 0.44 10.7 0.54 10.2 0.44 10.5 0.47
Bengaluru 6.6 0.47 5.5 0.18 7.4 0.46 5.9 0.34 8.1 0.40 7.1 0.55
Bhopal 7.6 0.60 6.1 0.60 8.7 0.59 7.6 0.67 9.1 0.62 9.5 0.81
Bhubaneswar 7.0 0.62 5.9 0.36 8.2 0.79 7.4 0.77 9.0 1.14 8.9 1.18
Chennai 8.0 0.44 7.0 0.57 8.9 0.47 8.1 0.57 9.4 0.47 8.9 0.69
Delhi 10.4 0.20 10.3 0.09 10.8 0.21 10.5 0.12 10.0 0.25 10.4 0.14
Guwahati 8.1 1.42 6.6 1.51 7.3 1.04 6.1 0.74 7.2 1.13 6.6 0.95
Hyderabad 8.8 0.48 7.1 0.58 9.5 0.47 8.5 0.68 10.2 0.50 10.0 0.64
Jaipur 7.3 0.38 7.3 0.55 7.9 0.48 7.7 0.54 8.0 0.69 8.4 1.01
Kolkata 9.6 0.34 8.5 0.72 10.2 0.35 9.5 0.67 10.4 0.41 10.0 0.51
Lucknow 9.6 0.53 9.2 0.66 10.4 0.52 9.9 0.58 10.0 0.64 10.6 0.35
Mumbai 10.5 0.24 10.3 0.18 10.6 0.33 10.5 0.25 10.3 0.32 10.7 0.29
Nagpur 9.6 0.59 8.9 0.92 10.4 0.62 9.6 0.79 9.8 0.71 10.1 1.24
Patna 6.5 0.36 5.9 0.28 6.8 0.44 6.4 0.59 6.8 0.40 6.7 0.61
Thiruvananthapuram 6.4 0.42 5.4 0.27 7.9 0.51 7.0 0.56 9.7 0.55 9.7 0.67
Chandigarh 9.0 1.21 8.5 1.58 8.8 1.06 8.0 1.24 9.1 1.13 8.3 1.33
Ranchi 7.0 0.37 6.7 0.31 7.6 0.41 7.3 0.49 8.6 0.47 9.2 0.86
Raipur 8.8 1.12 7.6 1.68 8.8 1.20 7.4 1.52 6.7 1.07 5.2 2.05
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses for the November 2018 round.

Table 3: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Nov-17 66.6 67.4 57.1 60.3 65.7
May-18 67.5 65.6 56.6 60.0 65.0
Jun-18 65.6 64.7 53.8 60.0 63.7
Sep-18 64.4 65.3 52.8 58.6 64.3
Nov-18 65.6 66.8 56.5 61.4 66.2
One Year Ahead
Nov-17 72.7 70.5 60.9 66.2 71.3
May-18 72.4 70.8 62.5 67.4 72.1
Jun-18 71.9 71.4 60.9 67.4 71.9
Sep-18 72.2 71.5 60.0 66.5 71.4
Nov-18 73.5 72.3 62.7 67.7 73.2
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 4(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2018
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate
(per cent)
  <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 23 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
1-<2 0 28 12 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45
2-<3 2 17 97 80 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 231
3-<4 1 10 8 101 94 50 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 277
4-<5 0 2 11 12 158 93 48 7 8 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 345
5-<6 3 6 20 20 25 549 150 190 62 10 52 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 1092
6-<7 1 2 1 2 4 12 213 87 81 19 11 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 436
7-<8 0 2 4 8 0 11 5 180 105 53 44 1 5 1 0 1 1 0 421
8-<9 0 1 3 0 3 4 5 8 188 65 86 7 11 1 1 1 1 0 385
9-<10 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 2 7 79 55 17 8 3 3 2 2 0 183
10-<11 0 0 0 3 1 28 6 11 17 8 485 42 162 30 11 131 43 1 979
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 34 16 8 3 7 2 0 72
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 46 9 8 11 6 0 85
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 11 4 6 4 0 28
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 3 11 0 33
15-<16 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 8 1 1 2 1 151 100 0 268
>=16 0 0 0 1 2 9 1 2 0 0 13 1 4 1 0 22 824 16 896
Total 30 70 156 232 316 770 440 488 470 238 763 106 256 66 50 338 995 18 5802
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 4(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2018
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate
(per cent)
  <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 21 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
1-<2 9 13 8 7 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45
2-<3 33 1 40 42 64 38 7 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 231
3-<4 14 3 5 51 50 111 20 8 10 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 277
4-<5 38 0 4 3 90 58 68 28 30 9 12 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 345
5-<6 109 0 5 9 8 289 107 202 103 40 172 8 15 4 2 11 7 1 1092
6-<7 45 1 0 2 2 7 116 68 84 31 58 8 10 0 1 3 0 0 436
7-<8 32 0 1 1 2 2 2 121 49 64 85 8 32 7 6 8 1 0 421
8-<9 44 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 95 34 111 11 50 4 5 13 9 1 385
9-<10 22 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 49 29 24 19 7 7 14 7 0 183
10-<11 104 0 0 0 2 3 5 11 6 2 325 25 100 39 29 192 131 5 979
11-<12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 25 4 6 9 10 8 0 72
12-<13 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 28 7 5 19 17 0 85
13-<14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 3 7 5 0 28
14-<15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 15 0 33
15-<16 24 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 0 106 130 0 268
>=16 90 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 0 10 0 2 0 1 10 763 13 896
Total 605 19 66 115 225 523 330 443 384 233 812 110 263 84 80 397 1093 20 5802
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा नियमित अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और अन्य आर्थिक संकेतकों का अनुपूरक होता है। सर्वेक्षण में उल्लिखित मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं उत्तरदाताओं द्वारा दिए गए उत्तरों पर आधारित है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करती हैं। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति के आधिकारिक उपायों के लिए बेंचमार्क के रूप में नहीं माना जाना चाहिए।

2 सर्वेक्षण पर तकनीकी सलाहकार समिति (टी.ए.सी.एस) द्वारा अनुमोदन के अनुसार, सर्वेक्षण के सितंबर 2018 के दौर से कोटा सैमपलिंग के स्थान पर टू-स्टेज प्रॉबबिलिटि सैमपलिंग स्कीम लागू की गई है। फलस्वरूप, सर्वेक्षण के परिणामों में परिवर्तन, संबंधी तालिकाओं के फुटनोट में बताए गए हैं। इसके अलावा, समग्र प्रतिदर्श आमाप को 6,000 पर रखते हुए, जनगणना 2011 के अनुसार प्रत्येक शहर के परिवारों की संख्या के अनुपात में शहरवार प्रतिदर्श आमाप संशोधित किया गया था।


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