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प्रकाशन

2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही (Q4) के लिए सेवा और आधारभूत संरचना परिदृश्य का सर्वेक्षण

आज भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने 2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही के दौरान संचालित सेवा और आधारभूत संरचना परिदृश्य (एसआइओएस) के तिमाही सर्वेक्षण के 40 वें चक्र का परिणाम जारी किया। भविष्योन्मुखी सर्वेक्षण1 में सेवा और आधारभूत संरचना क्षेत्रों में कार्यरत भारतीय कंपनियों का गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और उनकी अपेक्षाओं की कैपचरिंग मांग स्थितियों, मूल्य स्थितियों और अन्य कारोबार की शर्तों से संबंधित कारोबारी मानदंडों के एक समुह मे किया जाता है। सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में 707 कंपनियों ने 2023-24 चौथी तिमाही के लिए अपना मूल्यांकन और 2024-25 पहली तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाओं के साथ-साथ बाद की दो तिमाहियों के लिए प्रमुख मापदंडों पर अपना दृष्टिकोण प्रदान किया।

विशेष:

A. सेवा क्षेत्र

2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही के लिए मूल्यांकन

  • सेवा क्षेत्र की कंपनियों ने 2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही के दौरान समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति, नौकरी परिदृश्य और उनके कारोबार में सुधार का आकलन किया (चार्ट 1 और सारणी ए)।

  • उद्यमों ने इनपुट लागत से उत्पन्न उच्च लागत दबाव का अनुमान लगाया; हालाँकि, तिमाही के दौरान वेतन खर्च और वित्त की लागत का दबाव कम हुआ।

  • 2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही में उनकी बिक्री कीमतों और लाभ मार्जिन पर कंपनियों की धारणा में सुधार हुआ।

2024-25 की पहिली तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • अप्रैल-जून 2024 के दौरान उत्तरदाता समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति और उनके टर्नओवर के साथ-साथ पूर्णकालिक और अंशकालिक रोजगार स्थितियों पर अधिक उत्साहित थे (चार्ट 1 और सारणी ए)।

  • सेवा क्षेत्र के उद्यम वित्त की उपलब्धता को लेकर अत्यधिक सकारात्मक बने हुए हैं और उम्मीद करते हैं कि आगामी तिमाही में इसमें और सुधार होगा।

  • Q1:2024-25 में उच्च लागत दबाव अपेक्षित है; उत्तरदाताओं ने बिक्री कीमतों और लाभ मार्जिन में अधिक वृद्धि की आशा व्यक्त की।

2024-25 की दूसरी तिमाही और 2024-25 तीसरी तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • रोजगार परिदृश्य में और सुधार के साथ 2024-25 की तीसरी तिमाही तक सेवाओं की मांग क्रमिक रूप से बढ़ने की संभावना है (सारणी सी)।

  • सेवा क्षेत्र की कंपनियों को उच्च इनपुट लागत दबाव और बिक्री कीमतों में अधिक वृद्धि की उम्मीद है।

Chart 1: Turnover of Services Companies - Net Response

B. आधारभूत संरचना क्षेत्र

2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही के लिए मूल्यांकन

  • आधारभूत संरचना कंपनियों ने 2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही के दौरान सकारात्मक मांग मापदंडों का आकलन किया, जिसमें पिछली तिमाही की तुलना में कुछ हद तक कम आशावादिता थी (चार्ट 2 और सारणी बी)।

  • उत्तरदाताओं ने पूर्णकालिक और अंशकालिक रोजगार दोनों पर सकारात्मक भावनाओं की सूचना दी।

  • आधारभूत संरचना कंपनियों ने वेतन व्यय और वित्त लागत से दबाव कम होने का आकलन किया, जबकि इनपुट लागत से उत्पन्न दबाव बढ़ गया।

  • उद्यमों ने बिक्री मूल्य और लाभ मार्जिन में कम वृद्धि का अनुमान लगाया।

2024-25 की पहिली तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • उत्तरदाता 2024-25 की पहली तिमाही में समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति, कारोबार और रोजगार की स्थिति पर आशावादी थे, हालांकि पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में उम्मीदें कुछ हद तक कम थीं (सारणी बी)।

  • कंपनियां वित्त की आसान उपलब्धता को लेकर सकारात्मक बनी हुई हैं।

  • 2024-25 की पहली तिमाही के दौरान निधि और इनपुट की लागत का दबाव बने रहने की संभावना है।

  • आधारभूत संरचना कंपनियों ने पिछली तिमाही की तुलना में बिक्री मूल्य और लाभ मार्जिन में वृद्धि के लिए कम आशावाद व्यक्त किया।

2024-25 की दूसरी तिमाही और 2024-25 तीसरी तिमाही के लिए अपेक्षाएं

  • उत्तरदाता 2024-25 की तीसरी तिमाही तक मांग और रोजगार की स्थिति पर अत्यधिक आशावादी बने हुए हैं (सारणी डी)।

  • अधिकांश कंपनियों ने 2024 के अंत तक इनपुट लागत और बिक्री कीमतों में और वृद्धि की आशंका जताई है।

Chart 2: Turnover of Infrastructure Companies - Net Response

Summary of Net Responses2 on Survey Parameters

Table A: Services Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q3:2023-24 Q4:2023-24 Q4:2023-24 Q1:2024-25
Overall Business Situation 35.6 37.5 54.8 65.3
Turnover 32.3 37.6 53.4 64.6
Full-time Employees 21.4 24.8 28.8 46.3
Part-time Employees 13.2 22.7 23.1 48.3
Availability of Finance 24.9 27.8 37.4 55.3
Cost of Finance -32.3 -31.5 -34.4 -45.5
Salary & Wages -38.4 -30.2 -36.8 -46.7
Cost of Inputs -37.9 -42.8 -45.7 -56.7
Selling Price 15.1 22.4 30.7 50.8
Profit Margin 9.7 16.3 27.5 46.4
Inventories 22.2 25.4 28.3 47.8
Technical/Service Capacity 21.0 24.3 34.1 54.7
Physical Investment 20.1 22.6 32.2 53.2

Table B: Infrastructure Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q3:2023-24 Q4:2023-24 Q4:2023-24 Q1:2024-25
Overall Business Situation 34.2 32.5 68.1 66.1
Turnover 36.1 27.5 73.9 61.5
Full-time Employees 22.2 20.0 60.7 46.6
Part-time Employees 29.2 24.7 68.3 53.5
Availability of Finance 30.8 28.0 61.3 57.8
Cost of Finance -31.8 -31.5 -60.7 -59.4
Salary & Wages -40.7 -26.1 -59.0 -55.2
Cost of Inputs -47.9 -49.1 -55.7 -63.4
Selling Price 28.0 18.9 60.0 55.1
Profit Margin 25.0 8.4 48.7 47.9
Inventories 36.9 30.1 74.3 55.0
Technical/Service Capacity 35.5 29.9 75.0 64.9
Physical Investment 31.6 26.0 75.3 64.0

Expectations of Select Parameters for extended period – Net response (in per cent)

 
Table C: Services Sector
Parameter Round 39 Round 40
Q4:2023-24 Q1:2024-25 Q2:2024-25 Q3:2024-25
Overall Business Situation 54.8 65.3 72.3 72.4
Turnover 53.4 64.6 73.9 74.3
Full-time Employees 28.8 46.3 54.1 53.8
Part-time Employees 23.1 48.3 53.1 52.6
Cost of Inputs -45.7 -56.7 -60.5 -61.0
Selling Price 30.7 50.8 53.6 53.8

Table D: Infrastructure Sector
Parameter Round 39 Round 40
Q4:2023-24 Q1:2024-25 Q2:2024-25 Q3:2024-25
Overall Business Situation 68.1 66.1 67.5 67.5
Turnover 73.9 61.5 69.5 68.1
Full-time Employees 60.7 46.6 45.2 47.4
Part-time Employees 68.3 53.5 55.8 60.7
Cost of Inputs -55.7 -63.4 -54.8 -55.9
Selling Price 60.0 55.1 49.5 54.5

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.

Services Sector

Table S1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q4:22-23 59.8 30.0 10.3 49.5 55.0 40.0 5.0 50.1
Q1:23-24 55.0 32.0 13.0 42.0 64.2 27.4 8.4 55.8
Q2:23-24 48.4 37.7 14.0 34.4 62.3 31.3 6.4 56.0
Q3:23-24 47.6 40.4 12.0 35.6 51.0 41.2 7.8 43.1
Q4:23-24 48.9 39.8 11.4 37.5 59.4 36.0 4.6 54.8
Q1:24-25         68.5 28.4 3.1 65.3
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table S2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 57.4 34.0 8.5 48.9 51.5 42.5 6.0 45.5
Q1:23-24 59.4 30.2 10.4 49.0 60.0 33.1 6.9 53.1
Q2:23-24 43.8 41.3 14.9 28.9 59.3 36.3 4.4 54.9
Q3:23-24 48.2 35.9 15.9 32.3 40.3 49.9 9.8 30.5
Q4:23-24 51.6 34.3 14.0 37.6 59.8 33.8 6.4 53.4
Q1:24-25         70.5 23.6 5.9 64.6
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 45.1 48.0 7.0 38.1 47.1 48.0 4.8 42.3
Q1:23-24 40.1 47.8 12.1 27.9 47.8 45.9 6.3 41.6
Q2:23-24 34.3 48.7 17.0 17.3 44.7 52.6 2.7 42.0
Q3:23-24 29.9 61.6 8.5 21.4 26.4 63.7 9.9 16.5
Q4:23-24 33.9 57.1 9.0 24.8 32.4 64.0 3.6 28.8
Q1:24-25         48.4 49.5 2.1 46.3
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 36.2 58.5 5.3 30.9 41.8 53.1 5.1 36.7
Q1:23-24 30.9 59.1 9.9 21.0 35.3 60.6 4.2 31.1
Q2:23-24 24.4 57.5 18.1 6.2 36.7 57.9 5.3 31.4
Q3:23-24 21.5 70.3 8.2 13.2 31.0 52.3 16.7 14.4
Q4:23-24 30.2 62.4 7.5 22.7 28.8 65.4 5.8 23.1
Q1:24-25         50.8 46.7 2.5 48.3
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q4:22-23 34.9 61.6 3.6 31.3 42.3 52.4 5.4 36.9
Q1:23-24 29.3 61.2 9.5 19.7 36.0 61.4 2.6 33.4
Q2:23-24 30.6 56.8 12.6 18.0 39.5 57.0 3.5 36.0
Q3:23-24 32.3 60.3 7.4 24.9 31.5 61.1 7.3 24.2
Q4:23-24 36.3 55.3 8.4 27.8 40.4 56.7 2.9 37.4
Q1:24-25         56.4 42.5 1.1 55.3
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 36.7 60.1 3.2 -33.5 41.6 53.2 5.2 -36.5
Q1:23-24 42.1 49.6 8.3 -33.7 35.4 62.0 2.6 -32.8
Q2:23-24 39.0 52.1 8.9 -30.1 38.1 57.6 4.3 -33.7
Q3:23-24 36.5 59.3 4.2 -32.3 32.8 61.0 6.2 -26.6
Q4:23-24 38.0 55.6 6.5 -31.5 38.1 58.2 3.7 -34.4
Q1:24-25         51.0 43.5 5.5 -45.5
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 47.6 48.4 3.9 -43.7 43.3 52.1 4.6 -38.7
Q1:23-24 48.8 45.6 5.6 -43.2 45.9 46.7 7.5 -38.4
Q2:23-24 44.5 50.3 5.3 -39.2 46.4 52.0 1.6 -44.8
Q3:23-24 42.4 53.5 4.0 -38.4 33.6 62.3 4.1 -29.5
Q4:23-24 34.8 60.7 4.5 -30.2 38.6 59.6 1.8 -36.8
Q1:24-25         46.7 53.3 0.0 -46.7
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 41.9 53.4 4.7 -37.2 50.1 44.5 5.3 -44.8
Q1:23-24 45.2 45.4 9.5 -35.7 43.8 53.6 2.7 -41.1
Q2:23-24 39.1 49.9 11.0 -28.1 47.0 46.8 6.1 -40.9
Q3:23-24 44.6 48.6 6.8 -37.9 32.1 57.9 9.9 -22.2
Q4:23-24 46.7 49.3 4.0 -42.8 47.4 50.9 1.7 -45.7
Q1:24-25         57.1 42.5 0.4 -56.7
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 34.4 62.2 3.5 30.9 38.9 55.6 5.5 33.4
Q1:23-24 28.8 59.8 11.4 17.4 35.7 60.0 4.3 31.3
Q2:23-24 21.9 62.7 15.4 6.5 39.5 53.7 6.8 32.7
Q3:23-24 24.3 66.6 9.2 15.1 26.4 61.5 12.1 14.2
Q4:23-24 29.9 62.6 7.5 22.4 35.3 60.0 4.7 30.7
Q1:24-25         52.4  46.0 1.6 50.8
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 43.6 46.7 9.7 33.9 44.8 49.7 5.4 39.4
Q1:23-24 26.3 52.3 21.4 4.9 48.4 42.3 9.3 39.1
Q2:23-24 26.3 51.8 22.0 4.3 50.3 40.6 9.1 41.2
Q3:23-24 27.1 55.5 17.4 9.7 27.3 59.2 13.5 13.8
Q4:23-24 29.6 57.0 13.3 16.3 36.1 55.2 8.6 27.5
Q1:24-25         50.6 45.1 4.2 46.4
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 38.1 58.1 3.8 34.2 48.8 46.0 5.2 43.5
Q1:23-24 30.4 58.8 10.8 19.6 38.6 57.7 3.7 34.8
Q2:23-24 30.2 56.2 13.6 16.5 40.3 54.3 5.4 34.8
Q3:23-24 29.6 62.9 7.5 22.2 34.5 53.9 11.6 22.9
Q4:23-24 32.2 60.9 6.9 25.4 34.2 60.0 5.8 28.3
Q1:24-25         50.9 45.9 3.2 47.8
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 36.4 60.9 2.7 33.7 41.5 53.9 4.6 37.0
Q1:23-24 30.0 65.1 4.9 25.1 36.4 61.1 2.5 34.0
Q2:23-24 28.1 69.2 2.7 25.3 51.2 47.5 1.3 49.8
Q3:23-24 22.6 75.8 1.6 21.0 41.9 56.3 1.9 40.0
Q4:23-24 29.1 66.2 4.8 24.3 34.1 65.9 0.0 34.1
Q1:24-25         54.7 45.3 0.0 54.7
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 32.2 65.5 2.3 30.0 41.4 53.9 4.7 36.7
Q1:23-24 26.9 66.8 6.3 20.7 33.0 64.3 2.7 30.3
Q2:23-24 30.7 66.1 3.1 27.6 43.4 54.8 1.8 41.5
Q3:23-24 21.7 76.6 1.6 20.1 23.3 75.8 0.9 22.3
Q4:23-24 28.0 66.7 5.3 22.6 32.2 67.8 0.0 32.2
Q1:24-25         53.8 45.7 0.5 53.2
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Infrastructure Sector

Table I1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q4:22-23 60.9 28.7 10.4 50.4 56.8 37.2 6.0 50.9
Q1:23-24 62.6 23.1 14.3 48.4 60.5 34.2 5.3 55.3
Q2:23-24 44.2 41.3 14.4 29.8 62.6 30.8 6.6 56.0
Q3:23-24 44.2 45.8 10.0 34.2 67.3 29.8 2.9 64.4
Q4:23-24 45.0 42.5 12.5 32.5 73.1 21.8 5.0 68.1
Q1:24-25         70.3 25.4 4.2 66.1
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table I2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 60.9 27.0 12.2 48.7 55.8 37.2 7.0 48.8
Q1:23-24 64.8 19.8 15.4 49.5 61.4 32.5 6.1 55.3
Q2:23-24 46.2 39.4 14.4 31.7 61.1 33.3 5.6 55.6
Q3:23-24 47.9 40.3 11.8 36.1 53.8 42.3 3.8 50.0
Q4:23-24 42.5 42.5 15.0 27.5 75.6 22.7 1.7 73.9
Q1:24-25         68.4 24.8 6.8 61.5
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 47.0 47.8 5.2 41.7 52.4 40.7 6.9 45.5
Q1:23-24 46.7 40.0 13.3 33.3 50.9 44.7 4.4 46.5
Q2:23-24 28.8 58.7 12.5 16.3 48.9 48.9 2.2 46.7
Q3:23-24 32.5 57.3 10.3 22.2 42.3 54.8 2.9 39.4
Q4:23-24 27.5 65.0 7.5 20.0 63.2 34.2 2.6 60.7
Q1:24-25         47.5 51.7 0.8 46.6
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 46.4 50.0 3.6 42.9 52.1 41.7 6.2 45.9
Q1:23-24 48.1 40.7 11.1 37.0 43.8 55.4 0.9 42.9
Q2:23-24 37.9 55.2 6.9 31.0 50.9 45.3 3.8 47.2
Q3:23-24 35.8 57.5 6.6 29.2 60.3 34.5 5.2 55.2
Q4:23-24 29.2 66.3 4.5 24.7 68.3 31.7 0.0 68.3
Q1:24-25         55.8 41.9 2.3 53.5
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q4:22-23 45.1 49.6 5.3 39.8 52.2 41.9 5.8 46.4
Q1:23-24 28.9 54.4 16.7 12.2 46.8 50.5 2.7 44.1
Q2:23-24 36.5 52.9 10.6 26.0 51.1 43.3 5.6 45.6
Q3:23-24 36.7 57.5 5.8 30.8 46.6 49.5 3.9 42.7
Q4:23-24 34.7 58.5 6.8 28.0 63.0 35.3 1.7 61.3
Q1:24-25         58.6 40.5 0.9 57.8
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 43.4 49.6 7.1 -36.3 49.7 44.5 5.8 -43.8
Q1:23-24 50.6 41.2 8.2 -42.4 43.8 53.6 2.7 -41.1
Q2:23-24 51.0 42.7 6.3 -44.8 44.0 53.6 2.4 -41.7
Q3:23-24 38.2 55.5 6.4 -31.8 54.2 45.8 0.0 -54.2
Q4:23-24 35.2 61.1 3.7 -31.5 61.7 37.4 0.9 -60.7
Q1:24-25         60.4 38.7 0.9 -59.4
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 47.0 49.6 3.5 -43.5 50.5 43.6 5.8 -44.7
Q1:23-24 40.7 56.0 3.3 -37.4 46.5 50.9 2.6 -43.9
Q2:23-24 42.7 50.5 6.8 -35.9 47.8 52.2 0.0 -47.8
Q3:23-24 44.9 50.8 4.2 -40.7 41.2 56.9 2.0 -39.2
Q4:23-24 27.7 70.6 1.7 -26.1 59.8 39.3 0.9 -59.0
Q1:24-25         55.2 44.8 0.0 -55.2
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 46.9 50.4 2.7 -44.2 55.3 37.8 6.9 -48.5
Q1:23-24 47.7 47.7 4.5 -43.2 49.6 48.7 1.8 -47.8
Q2:23-24 50.0 45.1 4.9 -45.1 51.1 44.3 4.5 -46.6
Q3:23-24 52.1 43.6 4.3 -47.9 52.0 41.0 7.0 -45.0
Q4:23-24 52.6 43.9 3.5 -49.1 59.1 37.4 3.5 -55.7
Q1:24-25         63.4 36.6 0.0 -63.4
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 46.8 48.6 4.5 42.3 50.3 43.1 6.6 43.8
Q1:23-24 29.3 63.4 7.3 22.0 43.5 53.7 2.8 40.7
Q2:23-24 33.7 53.3 13.0 20.7 43.4 54.2 2.4 41.0
Q3:23-24 37.0 54.0 9.0 28.0 42.4 53.3 4.3 38.0
Q4:23-24 28.9 61.1 10.0 18.9 62.0 36.0 2.0 60.0
Q1:24-25         60.7 33.7 5.6 55.1
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 46.0 44.2 9.7 36.3 52.8 39.6 7.6 45.1
Q1:23-24 36.7 38.9 24.4 12.2 47.3 45.5 7.1 40.2
Q2:23-24 24.5 58.8 16.7 7.8 46.1 48.3 5.6 40.4
Q3:23-24 35.0 55.0 10.0 25.0 37.3 56.9 5.9 31.4
Q4:23-24 26.1 56.3 17.6 8.4 56.3 36.1 7.6 48.7
Q1:24-25         54.7 38.5 6.8 47.9
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 48.7 46.0 5.3 43.4 53.6 39.2 7.2 46.4
Q1:23-24 28.3 58.3 13.3 15.0 48.2 50.0 1.8 46.4
Q2:23-24 42.1 52.6 5.3 36.8 36.7 60.0 3.3 33.3
Q3:23-24 41.7 53.4 4.9 36.9 60.5 36.8 2.6 57.9
Q4:23-24 34.0 62.1 3.9 30.1 75.2 23.8 1.0 74.3
Q1:24-25         58.0 39.0 3.0 55.0
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 45.9 50.5 3.7 42.2 50.5 43.5 6.0 44.6
Q1:23-24 35.7 59.5 4.8 31.0 45.0 53.2 1.8 43.1
Q2:23-24 38.3 59.6 2.1 36.2 51.2 48.8 0.0 51.2
Q3:23-24 39.8 55.9 4.3 35.5 66.7 33.3 0.0 66.7
Q4:23-24 32.5 64.9 2.6 29.9 75.0 25.0 0.0 75.0
Q1:24-25         66.2 32.4 1.4 64.9
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:22-23 45.9 50.5 3.7 42.2 49.8 43.6 6.6 43.2
Q1:23-24 37.1 52.9 10.0 27.1 43.9 52.3 3.7 40.2
Q2:23-24 38.0 58.2 3.8 34.2 36.8 60.3 2.9 33.8
Q3:23-24 35.8 60.0 4.2 31.6 46.8 53.2 0.0 46.8
Q4:23-24 28.6 68.8 2.6 26.0 75.3 24.7 0.0 75.3
Q1:24-25         64.0 36.0 0.0 64.0
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

1 सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जिन्हें आवश्यक रूप से रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा नहीं किया जाता है। पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर के परिणाम 08 फरवरी 2024 को बैंक की वेबसाइट पर जारी किए गए।

2 Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Positive value indicates expansion/optimism and negative value indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D); where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/ equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100).  For example, increase in turnover is optimism whereas decrease in cost of inputs is optimism.

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