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Date : Jan 31, 2020
RBI Working Paper No. 02/2020: Construction of Bivariate Fan Chart from Joint Distribution

The Reserve Bank of India today released, on its website, a Working Paper titled “Construction of Bivariate Fan Chart from Joint Distribution” under the Reserve Bank of India Working Paper Series*. The Paper is authored by Purnima Shaw.

This paper proposes a theory on construction of bivariate fan chart involving two linearly related variables and conditional fan chart for a variable given the known information on the other. These charts are particularly useful when data release of one of the variables occur with a larger lag than that of the other variable. When information on one variable is released, avoidance of error that could be committed in its prediction may help in refining the point forecasts and error distribution of the other variable which may be quite useful from the policy perspective. Numerical presentation show that error committed in prediction of one variable helped in reducing and refining the error in prediction of the other.

Ajit Prasad
Director  

Press Release: 2019-2020/1848


* The Reserve Bank of India introduced the RBI Working Papers series in March 2011. These papers present research in progress of the staff members of the Reserve Bank and are disseminated to elicit comments and further debate. The views expressed in these papers are those of authors and not of the Reserve Bank of India. Comments and observations may kindly be forwarded to authors. Citation and use of such papers should take into account its provisional character.


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