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Date : Dec 05, 2025
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of November 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during November 1-10, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 6,061 responses.

Highlights:

  1. Households' perception of the current median inflation declined significantly by 80 basis points (bps) to 6.6 per cent in comparison to the previous round. Alongside, their inflation expectations for the next three months and one year ahead also experienced notable softening by 50 bps and 70 bps to 7.6 per cent and 8.0 per cent respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For both short term and one year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in both general prices and inflation maintained its declining trend [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  3. Households reported easing of price and inflationary pressures in most of the product groups including food products, non-food products, and cost of services for both the time horizons [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1a and 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Nov-24 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 79.3 0.89 80.5 0.86 79.5 1.22 77.8 0.90 74.6 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 53.6 1.24 54.4 1.24 52.7 1.58 51.5 1.20 50.7 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 19.9 0.87 22.0 0.92 24.0 1.42 23.1 0.89 20.2 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.49 4.1 0.42 2.8 0.39 3.1 0.36 3.7 0.38
No changes in prices 18.7 0.87 17.5 0.83 18.4 1.18 18.5 0.85 21.5 0.84
Decline in prices 2.0 0.29 2.0 0.30 2.1 0.35 3.7 0.43 3.9 0.41
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.9 0.75 82.8 0.79 80.0 1.36 79.0 0.90 74.9 0.84
Price increase more than current rate 60.7 1.08 55.8 1.11 53.1 1.60 51.5 1.22 50.5 1.04
Price increase similar to current rate 17.0 0.81 17.7 0.80 23.8 1.37 22.2 1.00 18.2 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 0.50 9.3 0.62 3.1 0.41 5.3 0.45 6.2 0.49
No changes in prices 11.1 0.64 11.9 0.66 15.9 1.30 14.2 0.80 16.1 0.72
Decline in prices 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.45 4.1 0.47 6.8 0.53 8.9 0.58
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.9 0.90 75.3 0.92 74.3 1.33 73.4 0.91 67.8 0.95
Price increase more than current rate 51.7 1.14 51.5 1.14 50.6 1.45 49.4 1.19 44.3 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 17.9 0.78 17.5 0.75 20.2 1.23 18.7 0.89 17.6 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 6.3 0.50 6.2 0.50 3.5 0.42 5.3 0.45 5.9 0.46
No changes in prices 19.9 0.85 20.2 0.83 21.8 1.27 20.1 0.80 24.7 0.87
Decline in prices 4.2 0.39 4.6 0.40 3.9 0.46 6.5 0.54 7.5 0.54
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 66.5 1.00 66.3 1.01 67.4 1.14 67.8 0.97 53.2 1.02
Price increase more than current rate 46.3 1.11 45.5 1.12 46.6 1.28 49.5 1.16 36.1 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 14.5 0.70 15.3 0.69 17.5 0.98 14.1 0.69 13.4 0.70
Price increase less than current rate 5.7 0.50 5.5 0.46 3.2 0.38 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.38
No changes in prices 24.8 0.89 26.6 0.94 25.9 1.05 21.5 0.83 29.4 0.91
Decline in prices 8.7 0.55 7.1 0.50 6.7 0.57 10.7 0.62 17.4 0.75
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.9 0.85 78.3 0.93 77.7 1.10 77.1 0.88 77.4 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 57.4 1.14 57.1 1.16 55.5 1.32 54.9 1.15 54.8 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 16.4 0.76 16.7 0.75 19.7 1.11 18.9 0.87 17.9 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.46 4.4 0.41 2.5 0.38 3.4 0.34 4.7 0.40
No changes in prices 18.2 0.79 19.1 0.88 19.1 1.04 18.7 0.81 18.5 0.81
Decline in prices 2.9 0.33 2.6 0.31 3.2 0.41 4.2 0.41 4.1 0.39
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 66.3 0.99 69.9 0.97 71.7 1.11 66.1 1.00 63.8 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 46.6 1.12 49.7 1.13 50.7 1.42 46.2 1.17 43.3 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 14.8 0.70 15.9 0.73 17.6 1.11 15.7 0.72 16.1 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.44 4.3 0.41 3.3 0.41 4.2 0.40 4.4 0.42
No changes in prices 30.7 0.98 28.0 0.97 25.6 1.07 30.0 0.98 32.5 0.95
Decline in prices 2.9 0.33 2.1 0.27 2.8 0.38 3.8 0.43 3.7 0.39
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Nov-24 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.6 0.67 89.2 0.68 88.1 1.15 86.8 0.79 83.6 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 66.9 1.14 64.7 1.18 63.2 1.73 61.8 1.22 60.0 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 0.85 21.5 0.97 20.1 1.40 21.7 0.94 20.6 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.40 3.0 0.38 4.9 0.64 3.3 0.36 3.1 0.34
No changes in prices 8.2 0.62 8.8 0.61 9.8 1.11 10.0 0.70 13.0 0.65
Decline in prices 2.2 0.30 2.0 0.26 2.1 0.35 3.2 0.41 3.4 0.41
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 89.0 0.66 87.0 0.66 84.8 1.18 83.3 0.95 81.8 0.80
Price increase more than current rate 64.4 1.13 59.2 1.10 57.9 1.66 56.5 1.34 54.0 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 19.3 0.87 20.3 0.86 23.7 1.46 22.8 1.03 22.9 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.48 7.5 0.57 3.2 0.41 4.0 0.41 4.9 0.44
No changes in prices 7.3 0.53 10.0 0.58 11.6 1.12 11.5 0.80 12.8 0.66
Decline in prices 3.7 0.38 3.0 0.32 3.6 0.42 5.2 0.49 5.4 0.47
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.9 0.81 81.9 0.78 80.7 1.23 79.7 0.96 78.1 0.82
Price increase more than current rate 56.7 1.19 55.8 1.12 55.2 1.66 53.6 1.27 52.7 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 19.5 0.84 20.7 0.80 22.3 1.41 21.6 0.96 20.1 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 0.48 5.4 0.46 3.1 0.44 4.4 0.42 5.2 0.45
No changes in prices 14.7 0.76 15.2 0.73 15.7 1.17 15.4 0.84 16.6 0.72
Decline in prices 3.4 0.36 2.9 0.32 3.6 0.44 4.9 0.46 5.3 0.48
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 76.8 0.90 77.0 0.89 77.7 1.53 78.1 0.90 68.0 0.95
Price increase more than current rate 54.8 1.18 54.8 1.12 56.2 1.63 58.0 1.17 46.1 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 16.9 0.76 17.8 0.79 18.3 1.13 16.5 0.81 17.4 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.45 4.4 0.40 3.2 0.41 3.7 0.37 4.5 0.44
No changes in prices 17.6 0.81 17.9 0.81 18.7 1.49 14.2 0.72 21.1 0.80
Decline in prices 5.6 0.46 5.1 0.41 3.6 0.42 7.7 0.57 11.0 0.65
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 88.8 0.70 88.2 0.69 87.8 0.78 87.5 0.70 87.9 0.67
Price increase more than current rate 66.7 1.09 65.9 1.06 64.8 1.44 63.8 1.14 64.9 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 17.6 0.83 18.5 0.82 20.1 1.24 20.3 0.93 19.2 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.45 3.8 0.40 2.8 0.37 3.4 0.35 3.8 0.37
No changes in prices 8.7 0.61 9.7 0.63 9.3 0.70 9.1 0.58 8.6 0.56
Decline in prices 2.5 0.30 2.1 0.27 3.0 0.39 3.4 0.39 3.5 0.40
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 81.7 0.90 83.0 0.77 84.8 0.85 81.2 0.83 79.0 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 58.4 1.19 59.9 1.12 61.5 1.45 58.4 1.15 55.1 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 18.3 0.82 18.2 0.77 20.1 1.24 18.5 0.83 19.2 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.44 4.8 0.44 3.2 0.41 4.4 0.41 4.7 0.45
No changes in prices 15.7 0.84 15.0 0.75 12.5 0.79 15.4 0.77 17.6 0.77
Decline in prices 2.6 0.32 2.0 0.26 2.7 0.38 3.4 0.42 3.4 0.41
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Nov-25
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 7.7 0.08 6.6 0.14 8.4 0.08 7.6 0.10 8.1 0.10 8.0 0.15
Gender-wise                        
Male 7.9 0.11 6.8 0.17 8.5 0.11 7.6 0.14 8.1 0.14 7.9 0.19
Female 7.6 0.11 6.4 0.20 8.4 0.11 7.6 0.15 8.3 0.15 8.3 0.20
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 7.8 0.41 6.9 0.34 8.3 0.42 7.4 0.49 8.2 0.52 8.2 0.42
Other Employees 7.8 0.16 6.9 0.23 8.5 0.16 7.6 0.18 8.1 0.21 7.8 0.23
Self Employed 8.2 0.18 7.0 0.30 8.8 0.19 7.8 0.23 8.2 0.26 7.9 0.40
Homemaker 7.5 0.13 6.4 0.23 8.4 0.14 7.6 0.18 8.2 0.18 8.4 0.25
Retired Persons 8.4 0.31 7.1 0.59 8.9 0.33 7.8 0.55 8.0 0.38 7.7 0.53
Daily Workers 7.6 0.25 6.5 0.39 8.4 0.25 7.6 0.36 8.1 0.31 8.1 0.45
Other category 7.1 0.17 6.2 0.22 7.9 0.18 7.1 0.21 7.9 0.24 7.5 0.25
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.0 0.14 6.1 0.15 7.9 0.15 7.0 0.16 7.8 0.19 7.6 0.20
25 to 30 years 7.7 0.17 6.6 0.28 8.4 0.18 7.6 0.20 8.2 0.23 8.1 0.28
30 to 35 years 8.0 0.19 6.9 0.30 8.6 0.19 7.8 0.21 8.4 0.24 8.3 0.29
35 to 40 years 8.0 0.18 7.4 0.23 8.7 0.19 8.0 0.23 8.6 0.24 8.5 0.34
40 to 45 years 8.1 0.20 7.4 0.46 8.9 0.21 8.4 0.31 8.4 0.27 8.5 0.43
45 to 50 years 7.8 0.20 6.5 0.35 8.5 0.21 7.6 0.24 8.4 0.27 8.3 0.39
50 to 55 years 7.6 0.27 6.2 0.35 8.2 0.27 7.2 0.27 7.7 0.33 7.4 0.40
55 to 60 years 7.9 0.25 6.4 0.36 8.3 0.27 7.3 0.33 7.2 0.37 6.9 0.32
60 years and above 7.7 0.21 6.2 0.31 8.4 0.24 7.1 0.29 7.7 0.30 7.3 0.39
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 5.6 0.18 5.3 0.10 6.1 0.18 5.7 0.12 5.9 0.30 5.7 0.22
Bengaluru 5.0 0.15 5.0 0.15 6.1 0.15 5.6 0.10 6.7 0.21 6.3 0.30
Bhopal 7.4 0.36 6.0 0.42 7.8 0.48 6.3 0.62 7.0 0.69 6.5 1.20
Bhubaneswar 6.5 0.75 5.4 0.44 7.6 0.65 6.6 0.62 8.8 0.84 8.9 1.30
Chennai 6.5 0.29 5.6 0.14 7.3 0.25 6.5 0.33 8.6 0.40 8.4 0.64
Delhi 8.9 0.21 8.3 0.46 9.2 0.23 8.5 0.47 7.9 0.29 7.5 0.45
Guwahati 7.5 0.49 6.8 0.57 7.9 0.51 7.3 0.69 7.1 0.68 7.2 0.88
Hyderabad 6.4 0.25 5.6 0.11 7.5 0.27 6.7 0.31 7.9 0.31 7.9 0.41
Jaipur 7.2 0.29 6.8 0.50 7.6 0.39 7.1 0.65 7.2 0.57 7.6 0.93
Jammu 10.2 0.99 10.1 1.96 8.6 0.55 7.6 1.33 7.8 0.79 7.0 1.23
Kolkata 9.7 0.31 9.6 0.53 10.4 0.26 10.1 0.39 10.0 0.32 9.9 0.47
Lucknow 8.0 0.52 7.6 0.55 8.3 0.57 7.9 0.58 8.0 0.67 8.0 0.91
Mumbai 9.3 0.19 8.6 0.16 10.2 0.19 10.1 0.16 9.7 0.24 10.4 0.10
Nagpur 7.4 0.53 6.5 0.58 8.0 0.53 7.2 0.43 6.5 0.58 6.4 0.64
Patna 7.7 0.54 7.0 0.75 8.1 0.54 7.6 0.73 7.4 0.71 7.2 1.03
Thiruvananthapuram 7.1 0.47 5.9 0.40 8.6 0.46 7.5 0.36 9.7 0.50 9.3 0.87
Chandigarh 8.7 0.41 8.5 0.50 8.8 0.54 8.3 0.90 8.3 0.94 8.6 1.20
Ranchi 7.8 0.29 7.2 0.20 8.0 0.29 7.5 0.29 7.3 0.52 7.6 0.52
Raipur 7.7 0.52 7.7 1.57 8.9 0.50 8.8 1.12 8.8 0.63 9.2 1.06
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Nov-24 8.9 0.09 8.4 0.13 9.7 0.10 9.1 0.20 9.7 0.12 10.1 0.11
May-25 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Jul-25 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9.0 0.39
Sep-25 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.0 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Nov-25 7.7 0.08 6.6 0.14 8.4 0.08 7.6 0.10 8.1 0.10 8.0 0.15
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households’ durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Nov-24 65.7 66.2 61.0 64.1 71.3
May-25 63.5 64.8 60.4 63.6 67.4
Jul-25 65.9 70.5 48.7 50.9 62.7
Sep-25 59.6 63.8 65.3 64.3 71.8
Nov-25 62.4 62.6 55.1 62.1 65.4
One Year Ahead
Nov-24 79.6 73.8 70.1 75.7 74.4
May-25 74.4 70.5 68.6 72.7 75.4
Jul-25 81.6 78.1 69.5 61.9 61.8
Sep-25 75.5 67.8 71.4 69.7 73.0
Nov-25 83.4 70.3 61.7 71.0 71.1

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Nov-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 25 5 4 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 43
1-<2 3 43 37 12 4 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105
2-<3 1 13 136 95 53 72 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 375
3-<4 1 1 15 117 124 69 11 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 345
4-<5 1 2 6 13 169 184 58 8 9 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 453
5-<6 0 5 26 26 32 573 360 239 93 6 97 0 2 0 0 5 0 0 1464
6-<7 1 1 3 6 8 15 192 83 69 24 17 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 421
7-<8 0 0 1 1 4 16 7 204 92 48 65 4 3 1 1 1 1 0 449
8-<9 1 0 2 2 4 7 12 15 188 67 149 7 16 2 1 4 2 0 479
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 77 65 20 24 0 0 6 0 1 200
10-<11 0 2 7 7 4 87 5 10 17 9 421 52 142 25 11 119 34 0 952
11-<12 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 9 7 2 1 1 2 1 27
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 49 4 9 18 8 1 93
13-<14 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 4 2 0 14
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 2 2 0 10
15-<16 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 1 3 1 8 1 2 0 0 80 12 1 114
>=16 2 1 0 1 0 16 0 3 0 0 14 0 2 1 1 18 454 4 517
Total 35 74 237 283 404 1049 652 567 478 236 848 94 250 39 31 258 518 8 6061

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Nov-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 16 4 10 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 43
1-<2 25 17 35 10 3 7 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105
2-<3 53 6 65 75 56 97 14 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 375
3-<4 46 0 3 49 58 82 25 18 9 2 11 0 7 2 1 16 16 0 345
4-<5 76 1 3 6 73 93 69 24 19 5 13 7 19 2 5 26 12 0 453
5-<6 232 0 5 7 24 259 306 219 132 31 210 3 6 2 1 18 9 0 1464
6-<7 68 1 1 2 1 11 86 72 81 29 47 8 13 0 0 1 0 0 421
7-<8 80 1 1 0 1 5 2 87 83 54 100 11 12 0 3 7 2 0 449
8-<9 69 1 0 0 1 1 3 2 87 41 180 21 42 12 4 8 7 0 479
9-<10 23 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 45 50 22 31 4 10 8 2 1 200
10-<11 153 0 0 1 3 12 4 5 5 5 277 27 152 28 23 157 99 1 952
11-<12 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 6 3 1 1 4 1 27
12-<13 13 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 4 16 14 18 1 93
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 5 3 0 14
14-<15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 3 0 10
15-<16 21 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 2 0 3 1 1 0 0 50 31 0 114
>=16 107 1 4 0 0 7 0 1 1 0 13 1 1 0 0 10 368 3 517
Total 986 33 127 152 222 582 514 433 424 214 914 107 315 61 69 323 578 7 6061

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on October 01, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.