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Date : Sep 30, 2022
Industrial Outlook Survey of the Manufacturing Sector for Q2:2022-23

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the 99th round of its industrial outlook survey (IOS) conducted during July-September 2022. The survey encapsulates qualitative assessment of the business climate by Indian manufacturing companies for Q2:2022-23 and their expectations for Q3:2022-231. In all, 1,234 companies responded in this round of the survey. The additional response block for assessing the outlook on key parameters for two more quarters, which was introduced in the wake of uncertainties since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, was continued in this round of survey.

Highlights:

A. Assessment for Q2: 2022-23

  • Business conditions in the manufacturing sector moved further on the recovery path during Q2:2022-23 as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic ebbed further; respondents maintained positive assessment for production, order books, capacity utilisation, employment and foreign trade situations, though the sentiments were marginally tempered from the previous round of the survey (Table A).

  • Manufacturers assessed continued pressures from rising cost for raw materials, salary outgo and the cost of finance during the quarter; they, however, perceived some moderation in the pace of increase in raw material cost.

  • Respondents reported deceleration in the pace of rise in selling prices during Q2:2022-23; their sentiments on profit margin for the quarter deteriorated.

  • Overall, business sentiments in the manufacturing sector remained positive, albeit with some moderation; the business assessment index (BAI)2 stood at 106.7 in Q2:2022-23 as compared with 110.7 in the previous quarter (Chart 1).

B. Expectations for Q3: 2022-23

  • Respondents remained optimistic on demand conditions during Q3:2022-23, though it waned marginally, as reflected in their expectations on production, order books and employment.

  • Pressures from purchase of raw materials and staff cost are likely to soften during Q3:2022-23.

  • Selling prices and profit margins are expected to rise further; lower share of respondents expect further rise in selling prices as well as rise in profit margins during the ensuing quarter vis-à-vis the survey round.

  • Overall, manufacturers remained optimistic about business conditions: the business expectations index (BEI) remained high at 134.4 in Q3:2022-23 though it moderated marginally from 137.7 in the previous quarter (Chart 1).

Chart 1: Business Sentiments

C. Expectations for Q4:2022-23 and Q1:2023-24

  • Manufacturers are optimistic on demand conditions, employment situation and overall business scenario till Q1:2023-24 (Table B).

  • Respondents expect sustained input cost pressures and selling price rise till first quarter of the next financial year.

Table A: Summary of Net responses3 on Survey Parameters
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectation period
Q1:2022-23 Q2:2022-23 Q2:2022-23 Q3:2022-23
Production 22.2 18.1 67.4 56.2
Order Books 21.7 18.6 68.1 62.4
Pending Orders 7.5 7.3 2.6 -0.7
Capacity Utilisation 16.8 8.6 60.6 46.6
Inventory of Raw Materials -9.8 -4.6 -41.5 -25.7
Inventory of Finished Goods -9.0 -4.0 -41.3 -26.5
Exports 14.3 11.1 60.8 56.0
Imports 14.9 13.4 61.3 57.6
Employment 15.3 12.5 54.9 43.8
Financial Situation (Overall) 20.6 13.9 67.1 57.7
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals) 18.1 15.9 61.9 49.3
Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources) 17.2 15.4 60.4 55.1
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) 14.4 10.6 64.6 58.9
Cost of Finance -23.6 -30.1 -64.0 -51.9
Cost of Raw Material -84.4 -72.5 -79.0 -64.2
Salary/ Other Remuneration -34.8 -26.4 -60.8 -46.0
Selling Price 25.0 14.4 60.3 45.1
Profit Margin 1.8 -9.3 47.4 35.2
Overall Business Situation 22.3 15.8 70.7 59.4

Table B: Business Expectations of Select Parameters for extended period – Net response
(per cent)
Parameters Round 98 Round 99
Q2:2022-23 Q3:2022-23 Q4:2022-23 Q1:2023-24
Overall Business Situation 70.7 59.4 56.4 57.3
Production 67.4 56.2 55.9 56.6
Order Books 68.1 62.4 55.6 56.0
Capacity Utilisation 60.6 46.6 54.3 55.0
Employment 54.9 43.8 45.6 45.5
Cost of Raw Materials -79.0 -64.2 -57.7 -57.8
Selling Prices 60.3 45.1 46.3 47.3

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.

Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 44.5 10.7 44.8 33.8 58.8 6.8 34.3 52.0
Q3:2021-22 1,082 42.5 11.6 45.9 30.9 75.3 3.8 20.9 71.5
Q4:2021-22 1,283 38.0 14.2 47.8 23.8 66.5 5.3 28.3 61.2
Q1:2022-23 1,239 36.6 14.4 48.9 22.2 70.4 4.9 24.7 65.6
Q2:2022-23 1,234 34.3 16.3 49.4 18.1 72.4 5.0 22.6 67.4
Q3:2022-23           60.8 4.6 34.5 56.2
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic.
Note: The sum of components may not add up to total due to rounding off (This is applicable for all tables).

Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 44.9 10.1 45.0 34.7 56.9 6.5 36.7 50.4
Q3:2021-22 1,082 39.0 9.5 51.5 29.5 73.9 3.6 22.4 70.3
Q4:2021-22 1,283 34.7 13.4 51.9 21.3 66.2 4.7 29.1 61.5
Q1:2022-23 1,239 34.1 12.5 53.4 21.7 70.4 4.2 25.4 66.1
Q2:2022-23 1,234 30.7 12.1 57.2 18.6 72.7 4.6 22.6 68.1
Q3:2022-23           67.1 4.7 28.3 62.4
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic.

Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 9.6 8.1 82.3 -1.6 10.8 7.2 82.0 -3.7
Q3:2021-22 1,082 7.2 10.9 81.9 3.6 8.8 4.8 86.4 -4.1
Q4:2021-22 1,283 9.8 13.7 76.5 3.9 8.5 7.9 83.6 -0.5
Q1:2022-23 1,239 6.7 14.2 79.1 7.5 8.8 10.6 80.6 1.8
Q2:2022-23 1,234 10.3 17.6 72.0 7.3 7.7 10.3 82.1 2.6
Q3:2022-23           10.8 10.1 79.2 -0.7
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic.

Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 39.2 10.4 50.4 28.8 51.6 6.2 42.2 45.4
Q3:2021-22 1,082 31.2 9.0 59.8 22.2 68.3 3.1 28.5 65.2
Q4:2021-22 1,283 30.2 13.0 56.9 17.2 57.0 4.5 38.5 52.6
Q1:2022-23 1,239 29.5 12.8 57.7 16.8 63.5 4.5 32.0 59.0
Q2:2022-23 1,234 23.4 14.8 61.8 8.6 65.6 5.0 29.4 60.6
Q3:2022-23           51.5 4.9 43.6 46.6
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic.

Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 15.4 7.7 76.9 7.8 15.6 7.9 76.5 7.7
Q3:2021-22 1,082 12.6 8.4 78.9 4.2 30.4 3.7 65.9 26.7
Q4:2021-22 1,283 12.6 10.8 76.6 1.9 30.1 5.8 64.2 24.3
Q1:2022-23 1,239 19.6 10.4 70.0 9.2 39.3 5.4 55.4 33.9
Q2:2022-23 1,234 20.5 12.8 66.7 7.8 50.2 6.3 43.5 43.9
Q3:2022-23           37.0 6.1 56.9 30.9
‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic.

Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
More than adequate Less than adequate Adequate Net response More than adequate Less than adequate Adequate Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 17.3 7.6 75.1 9.7 28.4 5.8 65.8 22.6
Q3:2021-22 1,082 13.2 6.1 80.6 7.1 31.0 4.0 65.1 27.0
Q4:2021-22 1,283 14.1 7.1 78.8 7.1 30.7 4.0 65.3 26.7
Q1:2022-23 1,239 25.2 7.2 67.6 18.0 42.7 3.9 53.5 38.8
Q2:2022-23 1,234 21.1 6.8 72.1 14.3 51.5 5.4 43.0 46.1
Q3:2022-23           42.9 4.5 52.7 38.4
‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic.

Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 39.2 7.7 53.0 31.5 49.8 6.2 44.0 43.6
Q3:2021-22 1,082 29.8 9.7 60.5 20.0 67.3 3.1 29.6 64.3
Q4:2021-22 1,283 25.3 12.6 62.1 12.7 59.2 4.5 36.4 54.7
Q1:2022-23 1,239 25.5 11.2 63.4 14.3 62.4 4.4 33.2 58.0
Q2:2022-23 1,234 25.2 14.0 60.8 11.1 65.2 4.4 30.4 60.8
Q3:2022-23           61.2 5.2 33.6 56.0
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic.

Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 36.0 5.8 58.2 30.2 47.3 4.5 48.3 42.8
Q3:2021-22 1,082 26.8 6.9 66.3 19.9 63.4 2.9 33.7 60.4
Q4:2021-22 1,283 22.9 11.6 65.4 11.3 55.6 3.8 40.6 51.8
Q1:2022-23 1,239 23.9 9.0 67.0 14.9 59.7 3.4 36.9 56.4
Q2:2022-23 1,234 23.5 10.1 66.4 13.4 64.5 3.2 32.3 61.3
Q3:2022-23           60.8 3.2 36.0 57.6
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic.

Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above average Below average Average Net response Above average Below average Average Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 20.2 5.5 74.4 -14.7 23.7 6.2 70.0 -17.5
Q3:2021-22 1,082 16.5 5.1 78.4 -11.4 33.7 4.4 61.9 -29.4
Q4:2021-22 1,283 14.7 6.9 78.4 -7.8 32.7 3.7 63.5 -29.0
Q1:2022-23 1,239 16.8 7.0 76.1 -9.8 42.4 3.6 54.0 -38.8
Q2:2022-23 1,234 15.0 10.5 74.5 -4.6 46.1 4.6 49.3 -41.5
Q3:2022-23           32.8 7.1 60.1 -25.7
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic.

Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above average Below average Average Net response Above average Below average Average Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 20.0 5.2 74.8 -14.9 25.0 5.6 69.4 -19.4
Q3:2021-22 1,082 15.3 5.5 79.2 -9.8 34.4 3.8 61.8 -30.7
Q4:2021-22 1,283 13.7 7.2 79.0 -6.5 31.1 3.9 64.9 -27.2
Q1:2022-23 1,239 16.4 7.4 76.2 -9.0 42.4 3.0 54.6 -39.5
Q2:2022-23 1,234 14.2 10.2 75.6 -4.0 45.6 4.3 50.1 -41.3
Q3:2022-23           33.4 6.9 59.7 -26.5
‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic.

Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 29.5 4.6 65.9 24.9 28.6 2.5 69.0 26.1
Q3:2021-22 1,082 25.3 5.4 69.3 19.8 52.2 1.3 46.5 50.9
Q4:2021-22 1,283 20.3 8.9 70.8 11.4 49.2 2.0 48.8 47.2
Q1:2022-23 1,239 23.4 8.1 68.4 15.3 52.7 2.5 44.7 50.2
Q2:2022-23 1,234 21.5 9.0 69.5 12.5 57.1 2.1 40.8 54.9
Q3:2022-23           45.0 1.2 53.9 43.8
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic.

Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 41.7 8.9 49.4 32.8 54.0 5.8 40.2 48.2
Q3:2021-22 1,082 38.1 9.8 52.0 28.3 71.5 2.9 25.7 68.6
Q4:2021-22 1,283 33.9 13.2 53.0 20.7 64.0 4.7 31.3 59.3
Q1:2022-23 1,239 33.0 12.3 54.7 20.6 69.3 3.9 26.7 65.4
Q2:2022-23 1,234 28.7 14.8 56.4 13.9 70.4 3.4 26.2 67.1
Q3:2022-23           61.4 3.8 34.8 57.7
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic.

Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 39.6 4.7 55.7 34.9 44.7 3.0 52.2 41.7
Q3:2021-22 1,082 31.6 4.5 63.9 27.1 63.3 2.2 34.4 61.1
Q4:2021-22 1,283 31.4 8.1 60.5 23.3 54.7 2.9 42.4 51.7
Q1:2022-23 1,239 33.4 7.9 58.7 25.5 62.8 1.4 35.7 61.4
Q2:2022-23 1,234 29.6 6.8 63.5 22.8 65.0 2.6 32.5 62.4
Q3:2022-23           51.2 1.6 47.3 49.6
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic.

Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 35.3 6.8 57.9 28.5 42.4 3.8 53.7 38.6
Q3:2021-22 1,082 30.6 5.8 63.6 24.8 64.1 2.1 33.8 61.9
Q4:2021-22 1,283 27.7 9.6 62.7 18.1 55.7 2.8 41.5 52.9
Q1:2022-23 1,239 27.8 9.7 62.4 18.1 62.4 2.5 35.2 59.9
Q2:2022-23 1,234 24.0 8.0 68.0 15.9 64.2 2.4 33.4 61.9
Q3:2022-23           51.3 2.0 46.7 49.3
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic.

Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 33.2 4.9 61.8 28.3 38.4 2.9 58.8 35.5
Q3:2021-22 1,082 26.2 3.9 69.9 22.4 60.6 1.9 37.5 58.7
Q4:2021-22 1,283 24.1 8.0 68.0 16.1 52.0 2.1 45.9 49.8
Q1:2022-23 1,239 24.8 7.6 67.5 17.2 59.3 1.5 39.2 57.8
Q2:2022-23 1,234 21.9 6.5 71.6 15.4 62.2 1.8 36.1 60.4
Q3:2022-23           56.7 1.7 41.6 55.1
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic.

Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 33.8 2.3 63.9 31.5 44.0 1.3 54.7 42.7
Q3:2021-22 1,082 22.4 3.4 74.1 19.0 66.5 0.6 32.8 65.9
Q4:2021-22 1,283 17.9 8.7 73.4 9.1 52.5 1.5 46.0 50.9
Q1:2022-23 1,239 21.9 7.5 70.6 14.4 60.2 0.9 38.9 59.2
Q2:2022-23 1,234 17.4 6.8 75.8 10.6 65.8 1.2 33.0 64.6
Q3:2022-23           59.6 0.8 39.6 58.9
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic.

Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 32.5 4.0 63.5 -28.6 34.9 3.3 61.8 -31.5
Q3:2021-22 1,082 24.9 5.5 69.5 -19.4 58.3 2.5 39.3 -55.8
Q4:2021-22 1,283 22.1 9.6 68.3 -12.6 50.7 2.1 47.2 -48.6
Q1:2022-23 1,239 30.5 6.9 62.6 -23.6 57.0 2.1 40.9 -54.9
Q2:2022-23 1,234 36.1 6.1 57.8 -30.1 65.6 1.6 32.8 -64.0
Q3:2022-23           53.5 1.6 44.9 -51.9
‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic.

Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 62.5 1.4 36.1 -61.0 56.8 2.0 41.2 -54.9
Q3:2021-22 1,082 62.0 3.2 34.8 -58.8 76.6 1.4 22.1 -75.2
Q4:2021-22 1,283 55.0 5.5 39.4 -49.5 75.1 1.5 23.3 -73.6
Q1:2022-23 1,239 85.5 1.1 13.3 -84.4 78.2 1.2 20.6 -77.0
Q2:2022-23 1,234 77.0 4.6 18.4 -72.5 80.6 1.6 17.9 -79.0
Q3:2022-23           66.8 2.6 30.7 -64.2
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic.

Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 33.1 1.8 65.2 -31.3 32.5 0.9 66.6 -31.6
Q3:2021-22 1,082 29.3 2.4 68.3 -26.9 51.2 0.9 47.9 -50.4
Q4:2021-22 1,283 24.6 6.4 69.0 -18.2 50.9 1.0 48.2 -49.9
Q1:2022-23 1,239 39.6 4.8 55.5 -34.8 66.3 0.7 33.0 -65.6
Q2:2022-23 1,234 30.8 4.4 64.7 -26.4 61.3 0.4 38.3 -60.8
Q3:2022-23           46.3 0.3 53.4 -46.0
‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic.

Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 42.0 3.9 54.1 38.2 31.1 2.9 66.0 28.2
Q3:2021-22 1,082 34.5 6.3 59.2 28.2 59.7 2.3 38.0 57.4
Q4:2021-22 1,283 30.0 9.7 60.2 20.3 54.0 3.7 42.3 50.3
Q1:2022-23 1,239 33.3 8.3 58.4 25.0 59.5 3.8 36.7 55.7
Q2:2022-23 1,234 25.1 10.7 64.2 14.4 63.4 3.2 33.4 60.3
Q3:2022-23           48.8 3.7 47.5 45.1
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic.

Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 30.0 20.6 49.5 9.4 43.7 11.0 45.3 32.7
Q3:2021-22 1,082 22.8 19.0 58.2 3.8 59.9 8.2 31.9 51.7
Q4:2021-22 1,283 20.6 21.8 57.6 -1.2 49.5 9.7 40.8 39.8
Q1:2022-23 1,239 22.5 20.7 56.7 1.8 53.6 10.4 35.9 43.2
Q2:2022-23 1,234 16.2 25.5 58.2 -9.3 57.6 10.1 32.3 47.4
Q3:2022-23           44.2 9.0 46.8 35.2
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic.

Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2021-22 1,414 43.5 9.5 47.0 34.0 59.9 7.5 32.5 52.4
Q3:2021-22 1,082 42.3 9.8 47.9 32.5 73.1 2.8 24.1 70.3
Q4:2021-22 1,283 37.7 13.6 48.8 24.1 67.6 4.2 28.2 63.4
Q1:2022-23 1,239 36.0 13.8 50.2 22.3 71.8 3.8 24.4 68.0
Q2:2022-23 1,234 31.6 15.7 52.7 15.8 73.9 3.2 22.9 70.7
Q3:2022-23           63.8 4.4 31.7 59.4
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic.

Table 23: Business Sentiments
Quarter Business Assessment Index (BAI) Business Expectations Index (BEI)
Q2:2021-22 119.4 128.0
Q3:2021-22 115.0 139.3
Q4:2021-22 111.5 137.8
Q1:2022-23 110.1 134.7
Q2:2022-23 106.7 137.5
Q3:2022-23   134.4

1 The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 05, 2022.

2 For each survey round, two summary indices are computed – one based on assessment [viz., Business Assessment Index (BAI)] and another based on expectations [viz., Business Expectations Index (BEI)]. Each index is a composite indicator calculated as a simple average of nine business parameters, where each parameter is derived as a weighted net response, weights being the share of industry groups in gross value added (GVA). The nine parameters considered are: (1) overall business situation; (2) production; (3) order books; (4) inventory of raw material; (5) inventory of finished goods; (6) profit margins; (7) employment; (8) exports; and (9) capacity utilisation. BAI/BEI gives a snapshot of the business outlook in every quarter and takes values between 0 and 200, with 100 being the threshold separating expansion from contraction.

3 Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D), where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100).  For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism.

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