Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the July 2022 round of the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during July 7 to 14, 2022 in 19 major cities. The results are based on responses from 5,935 urban households.
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended | Jul-21 | Jan-22 | Mar-22 | May-22 | Jul-22 |
General | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
Prices will increase | 85.9 | 0.78 | 85.6 | 0.68 | 89.9 | 0.64 | 88.5 | 0.69 | 83.1 | 0.80 |
Price increase more than current rate | 62.8 | 1.14 | 61.4 | 1.07 | 67.2 | 1.27 | 66.1 | 1.10 | 58.7 | 1.21 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 19.7 | 0.90 | 20.5 | 0.87 | 19.3 | 0.96 | 18.9 | 0.83 | 21.1 | 0.97 |
Price increase less than current rate | 3.4 | 0.38 | 3.7 | 0.40 | 3.5 | 0.45 | 3.5 | 0.37 | 3.3 | 0.36 |
No changes in prices | 11.2 | 0.70 | 12.0 | 0.64 | 8.6 | 0.59 | 9.1 | 0.62 | 13.7 | 0.74 |
Decline in prices | 2.9 | 0.40 | 2.4 | 0.30 | 1.5 | 0.22 | 2.3 | 0.32 | 3.2 | 0.38 |
Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 84.0 | 0.81 | 83.7 | 0.71 | 89.6 | 0.62 | 88.4 | 0.66 | 83.7 | 0.77 |
Price increase more than current rate | 60.8 | 1.15 | 61.0 | 1.01 | 68.2 | 1.14 | 65.6 | 1.04 | 59.6 | 1.13 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 17.7 | 0.88 | 17.0 | 0.78 | 16.2 | 0.88 | 17.4 | 0.78 | 18.9 | 0.90 |
Price increase less than current rate | 5.4 | 0.53 | 5.7 | 0.47 | 5.2 | 0.48 | 5.4 | 0.44 | 5.2 | 0.45 |
No changes in prices | 10.5 | 0.64 | 10.5 | 0.58 | 6.9 | 0.51 | 7.1 | 0.51 | 10.1 | 0.64 |
Decline in prices | 5.5 | 0.53 | 5.8 | 0.45 | 3.5 | 0.36 | 4.5 | 0.43 | 6.1 | 0.52 |
Non- Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 82.6 | 0.85 | 80.4 | 0.73 | 88.4 | 0.63 | 87.5 | 0.70 | 80.8 | 0.84 |
Price increase more than current rate | 58.9 | 1.16 | 55.4 | 1.02 | 65.6 | 1.17 | 64.5 | 1.05 | 55.7 | 1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 19.0 | 0.91 | 19.4 | 0.80 | 17.6 | 0.87 | 17.9 | 0.79 | 19.8 | 0.89 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.8 | 0.50 | 5.6 | 0.46 | 5.2 | 0.49 | 5.1 | 0.44 | 5.2 | 0.45 |
No changes in prices | 12.3 | 0.73 | 14.1 | 0.64 | 8.7 | 0.56 | 8.2 | 0.54 | 13.2 | 0.72 |
Decline in prices | 5.1 | 0.50 | 5.4 | 0.43 | 2.9 | 0.31 | 4.2 | 0.43 | 6.0 | 0.49 |
Household Durables | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 65.6 | 1.09 | 69.9 | 0.88 | 73.5 | 0.89 | 74.7 | 0.93 | 68.7 | 0.95 |
Price increase more than current rate | 44.9 | 1.18 | 48.6 | 1.03 | 51.9 | 1.20 | 53.4 | 1.13 | 46.6 | 1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 16.8 | 0.86 | 16.2 | 0.70 | 16.0 | 0.83 | 16.3 | 0.78 | 17.3 | 0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.0 | 0.43 | 5.1 | 0.45 | 5.5 | 0.50 | 5.1 | 0.42 | 4.8 | 0.44 |
No changes in prices | 25.2 | 0.98 | 23.1 | 0.82 | 20.4 | 0.83 | 19.7 | 0.82 | 23.7 | 0.88 |
Decline in prices | 9.2 | 0.66 | 7.0 | 0.45 | 6.1 | 0.44 | 5.5 | 0.44 | 7.6 | 0.54 |
Cost of Housing | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 64.7 | 1.12 | 71.5 | 0.88 | 75.8 | 0.94 | 78.5 | 0.90 | 74.8 | 0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate | 45.8 | 1.20 | 51.3 | 1.07 | 54.9 | 1.23 | 59.4 | 1.11 | 54.2 | 1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 14.7 | 0.79 | 16.1 | 0.74 | 16.6 | 0.80 | 15.4 | 0.73 | 16.9 | 0.77 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.2 | 0.46 | 4.2 | 0.42 | 4.3 | 0.40 | 3.7 | 0.35 | 3.7 | 0.37 |
No changes in prices | 23.7 | 0.99 | 21.3 | 0.80 | 18.9 | 0.86 | 17.1 | 0.82 | 20.3 | 0.82 |
Decline in prices | 11.7 | 0.74 | 7.2 | 0.48 | 5.4 | 0.46 | 4.3 | 0.40 | 4.8 | 0.44 |
Cost of Services | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 74.3 | 1.01 | 74.3 | 0.83 | 76.3 | 0.88 | 78.5 | 0.88 | 71.7 | 0.93 |
Price increase more than current rate | 52.3 | 1.19 | 51.6 | 1.05 | 54.5 | 1.19 | 56.4 | 1.09 | 48.6 | 1.12 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 17.5 | 0.83 | 18.0 | 0.79 | 16.8 | 0.80 | 17.4 | 0.71 | 19.0 | 0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.5 | 0.44 | 4.6 | 0.43 | 5.0 | 0.47 | 4.8 | 0.42 | 4.1 | 0.41 |
No changes in prices | 22.0 | 0.94 | 22.3 | 0.78 | 21.2 | 0.86 | 18.6 | 0.82 | 24.8 | 0.92 |
Decline in prices | 3.7 | 0.43 | 3.4 | 0.34 | 2.4 | 0.29 | 2.8 | 0.32 | 3.4 | 0.38 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended | Jul-21 | Jan-22 | Mar-22 | May-22 | Jul-22 |
General | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
Prices will increase | 86.9 | 0.77 | 89.6 | 0.58 | 91.5 | 0.58 | 91.3 | 0.60 | 88.4 | 0.70 |
Price increase more than current rate | 65.5 | 1.18 | 68.2 | 1.05 | 71.0 | 1.19 | 70.8 | 1.07 | 66.2 | 1.23 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 18.5 | 0.93 | 18.1 | 0.81 | 17.4 | 0.93 | 17.3 | 0.82 | 19.3 | 1.00 |
Price increase less than current rate | 2.9 | 0.38 | 3.3 | 0.39 | 3.1 | 0.41 | 3.1 | 0.36 | 2.8 | 0.32 |
No changes in prices | 10.1 | 0.68 | 7.8 | 0.50 | 6.1 | 0.48 | 5.8 | 0.47 | 8.1 | 0.61 |
Decline in prices | 3.1 | 0.41 | 2.6 | 0.29 | 2.4 | 0.29 | 2.8 | 0.36 | 3.4 | 0.41 |
Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 80.9 | 0.87 | 83.8 | 0.71 | 85.3 | 0.72 | 86.7 | 0.72 | 83.5 | 0.76 |
Price increase more than current rate | 55.7 | 1.18 | 58.2 | 1.06 | 60.9 | 1.19 | 62.8 | 1.10 | 58.1 | 1.18 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 20.9 | 0.97 | 20.4 | 0.86 | 19.6 | 0.91 | 19.2 | 0.82 | 21.3 | 0.98 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.3 | 0.45 | 5.2 | 0.45 | 4.8 | 0.47 | 4.7 | 0.41 | 4.1 | 0.40 |
No changes in prices | 12.5 | 0.72 | 10.9 | 0.61 | 9.8 | 0.59 | 8.1 | 0.52 | 10.5 | 0.65 |
Decline in prices | 6.6 | 0.54 | 5.3 | 0.40 | 5.0 | 0.41 | 5.2 | 0.48 | 6.0 | 0.55 |
Non- Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 80.4 | 0.91 | 82.9 | 0.72 | 85.8 | 0.73 | 87.0 | 0.72 | 83.6 | 0.78 |
Price increase more than current rate | 56.6 | 1.21 | 57.5 | 1.09 | 62.4 | 1.18 | 63.7 | 1.09 | 58.9 | 1.16 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 19.0 | 0.91 | 20.5 | 0.86 | 18.9 | 0.89 | 19.1 | 0.82 | 20.8 | 0.92 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.7 | 0.49 | 4.9 | 0.44 | 4.5 | 0.44 | 4.3 | 0.40 | 3.9 | 0.38 |
No changes in prices | 13.4 | 0.76 | 12.0 | 0.61 | 9.7 | 0.60 | 8.2 | 0.54 | 10.9 | 0.68 |
Decline in prices | 6.3 | 0.57 | 5.0 | 0.41 | 4.5 | 0.40 | 4.7 | 0.47 | 5.4 | 0.54 |
Household Durables | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 69.2 | 1.05 | 75.4 | 0.87 | 77.3 | 0.84 | 78.7 | 0.84 | 75.5 | 0.84 |
Price increase more than current rate | 46.8 | 1.17 | 52.1 | 1.07 | 54.1 | 1.16 | 56.4 | 1.09 | 52.2 | 1.12 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 18.5 | 0.88 | 18.7 | 0.81 | 18.3 | 0.89 | 17.4 | 0.75 | 19.3 | 0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate | 3.9 | 0.41 | 4.6 | 0.45 | 4.8 | 0.48 | 4.9 | 0.42 | 4.0 | 0.39 |
No changes in prices | 22.6 | 0.96 | 18.5 | 0.77 | 17.1 | 0.74 | 15.9 | 0.72 | 18.3 | 0.78 |
Decline in prices | 8.2 | 0.62 | 6.1 | 0.44 | 5.6 | 0.43 | 5.3 | 0.46 | 6.1 | 0.49 |
Cost of Housing | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 71.8 | 1.07 | 79.3 | 0.78 | 83.1 | 0.75 | 85.3 | 0.72 | 83.4 | 0.75 |
Price increase more than current rate | 50.8 | 1.21 | 57.0 | 1.03 | 61.1 | 1.17 | 64.2 | 1.07 | 61.4 | 1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 16.7 | 0.86 | 18.1 | 0.78 | 17.6 | 0.88 | 17.2 | 0.77 | 18.6 | 0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.3 | 0.44 | 4.2 | 0.43 | 4.5 | 0.43 | 4.0 | 0.38 | 3.4 | 0.36 |
No changes in prices | 19.8 | 0.92 | 15.1 | 0.66 | 13.2 | 0.67 | 10.5 | 0.60 | 12.4 | 0.67 |
Decline in prices | 8.4 | 0.68 | 5.6 | 0.43 | 3.7 | 0.36 | 4.1 | 0.40 | 4.1 | 0.42 |
Cost of Services | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 80.9 | 0.87 | 82.0 | 0.75 | 83.0 | 0.79 | 84.9 | 0.78 | 81.1 | 0.84 |
Price increase more than current rate | 55.8 | 1.17 | 57.5 | 1.04 | 59.2 | 1.25 | 62.2 | 1.10 | 57.4 | 1.17 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 20.6 | 0.91 | 19.8 | 0.81 | 18.8 | 0.93 | 17.8 | 0.78 | 19.9 | 0.95 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.5 | 0.47 | 4.6 | 0.44 | 5.0 | 0.47 | 4.9 | 0.42 | 3.9 | 0.39 |
No changes in prices | 15.7 | 0.80 | 15.1 | 0.68 | 14.1 | 0.71 | 12.0 | 0.67 | 15.0 | 0.80 |
Decline in prices | 3.4 | 0.41 | 3.0 | 0.31 | 3.0 | 0.32 | 3.0 | 0.38 | 3.8 | 0.45 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |