Growth is expected to improve in 2019-20 and firm up further in 2020-21. Consumer price inflation is expected to remain between 3.1 per cent and 4.0 per cent till Q3:2019-20 and increase to 4.2 per cent in Q4:2019-20.
The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. Twenty-six panellists participated in the 58th round of the survey conducted during May 20192. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts and consolidated in Annexes 1-7, along with quarterly paths for key variables.
1. Output
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6.
2. Inflation
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7.
3. External Sector
Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.3 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.2 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 10.3 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 11.7 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 12.0 |
3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 31.5 | 31.2 | 32.7 | 30.9 | 31.1 | 31.9 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.1 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.1 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.3 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 30.3 | 30.4 | 31.0 | 29.1 | 29.9 | 30.9 |
6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 14.4 |
9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.1 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.5 |
11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.2 | 5.6 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 9.0 |
13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -61.2 | -62.0 | -36.4 | -72.6 | -67.0 | -56.9 |
14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -2.2 | -2.2 | -1.2 | -3.0 | -2.4 | -1.9 |
15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 17.0 | 17.0 | 51.1 | -30.0 | 10.2 | 27.0 |
16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 3.3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 3.5 |
Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.4 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 8.5 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 10.5 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 12.6 |
3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 31.9 | 32.0 | 32.9 | 30.7 | 31.0 | 32.8 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.4 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 7.8 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 8.2 |
5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 30.3 | 30.7 | 31.5 | 28.2 | 29.6 | 31.1 |
6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 |
8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.1 | 13.8 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 14.6 |
9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.5 |
10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.6 |
11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 10.0 |
12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.1 | 8.1 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 13.5 |
13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -70.4 | -70.1 | -50.0 | -82.0 | -79.5 | -65.0 |
14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -2.3 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -2.4 | -2.0 |
15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 9.6 | 16.4 | 35.0 | -50.0 | 0.2 | 26.6 |
16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q1:201-20 to Q1:2020-21 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q1: 2019-20 | Q2: 2019-20 | Q3: 2019-20 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.7 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 6.8 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.8 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 6.8 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.2 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.5 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 11.3 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 9.7 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 29.3 | 29.4 | 31.1 | 27.0 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 29.5 | 28.2 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 29.2 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 6.2 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.4 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 6.2 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.4 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 |
5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 2.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 1.2 |
6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 86.2 | 85.1 | 90.2 | 83.6 | 87.3 | 87.6 | 90.3 | 84.1 | 88.4 | 88.1 | 90.7 | 85.5 |
7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 132.9 | 132.0 | 138.3 | 128.7 | 136.0 | 136.6 | 144.9 | 124.3 | 139.7 | 139.0 | 147.8 | 128.3 |
8 | Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) | 69.7 | 70.0 | 71.5 | 67.6 | 70.1 | 70.5 | 72.0 | 68.0 | 70.4 | 71.0 | 73.0 | 65.6 |
9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 70.2 | 71.0 | 73.0 | 63.2 | 68.9 | 70.0 | 76.0 | 58.3 | 68.8 | 69.5 | 77.0 | 62.2 |
10 | Repo Rate (end-period) | 5.87 | 5.75 | 6.25 | 5.50 | 5.74 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.72 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 5.50 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q4: 2019-20 | Q1: 2020-21 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.7 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 7.5 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.4 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 11.1 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 29.4 | 29.2 | 32.0 | 28.4 | 30.4 | 29.9 | 33.0 | 29.4 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 6.5 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.7 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.6 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 6.1 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 7.1 |
5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 5.4 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 2.9 |
6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 92.1 | 91.5 | 98.7 | 85.4 | 94.6 | 93.6 | 99.3 | 91.6 |
7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 137.5 | 136.7 | 149.6 | 130.4 | 147.9 | 147.1 | 152.0 | 145.0 |
8 | Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) | 70.8 | 71.1 | 72.0 | 65.9 | 70.9 | 71.4 | 71.5 | 69.0 |
9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 69.6 | 70.0 | 81.0 | 63.0 | 70.1 | 70.0 | 79.0 | 60.0 |
10 | Repo Rate (end-period) | 5.72 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 5.50 |