Analysis of seasonal behavior helps in differentiating
between the seasonal changes and long-run changes of
economic time series, which is useful for understanding the
underlying economic phenomenon. This article presents the
estimated monthly seasonal factors of selected 85 economic/
financial time series from broad sectors, namely, Monetary
and Banking; Price; Industrial Production; External
Trade and Services Sector, covering the period 2004-05 to
2013-14. The exercise revealed gradual decline in
variation of seasonality in major monetary aggregates. For
Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), the seasonal
variation of Aggregate Deposits and Credit showed
moderation in recent period. Seasonality in WPI-All
commodities remained low during the reference period.
Within WPI, ‘Primary Articles’ exhibited more seasonal
variation than ‘Manufactured Products’. Seasonality in
different CPI series have been stable in the recent years but
consistently higher than WPI-All Commodities. Seasonality
of IIP-General Index increased steadily over the reference
period. Merchandise export is found to have higher seasonal
variation than merchandise import post 2007-08.
Introduction: Economic time series, when
measured at an interval less than a year, exhibits
seasonal fluctuations around its annual trend. Such
repetitive seasonal variations can occur due to climatic
conditions, production cycle characteristics, seasonal
nature of economic activity, festivals, vacation practices
etc. Even seasonality, being integral part of data
generating process, its magnitude may vary from year
to year. Analysis of its direction and magnitude is useful
in interpretation of movements of economic variables
over time. Seasonal adjustment, i.e., removal of
seasonal effects, helps differentiate between the
seasonal changes and long-run changes in the variables
and is useful from the policy perspective in
understanding the underlying economic phenomenon.
The predictable recurring of seasonal fluctuations also
allows the economic agents to setup policies or measurements to attenuate the impact. In this context,
monthly seasonal factors for selected economic and
financial time series of the Indian economy are being
regularly published in the RBI Bulletin since 19801.
2. Data Coverage and Methodology
For estimating and analysing the seasonal factors,
85 monthly economic/financial time series covering
(i) Monetary and Banking Indicators (17 series);
(ii) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (26 series);
(iii) Consumer Price Index (CPI) (3 series); (iv) Industrial
Production (30 series); (v) External Trade Sector
(3 series) and (vi) Services Sector Indicators (6 series)
have been considered in this article.
The reference period was broadly considered from
April 1994 to March 2014, i.e., last 20 years. For some
series, the reference period was less than 10 years
depending on the availability of consistent time series
data.
The seasonal factors have been estimated using
X-13ARIMA-SEATS software package developed by the
US Bureau of Census2, taking care of Diwali as major
festival as well as trading day effects. The seasonality
of the series is further subjected to various parametric
and non-parametric statistical test procedures for their
statistical significance.
3. Salient Findings
Seasonal Variation during Last Ten Years (2004-05 to
2013-14)
The average monthly seasonal factors over the last
ten years (2004-05 to 2013-14) are presented in Table
1. The annual estimates of dispersion in seasonal
factors, in terms of range (difference between peak and
trough values of Seasonal Factors (SF) during a year),
during the period, are presented in Table 2. The
classification of variables as per range of seasonal
factors during 2013-14 is provided in Table 3. The list
of top-twenty and bottom-twenty series based on the
average range of seasonal factors, during last five years
(i.e., 2009-10 to 2013-14) and the corresponding peak and trough months are presented in Table 4. The salient
features of observed seasonal variation over the
reference period for some of the selected series during
the last ten years are briefly discussed below.
3.1 Monetary and Banking Indicators
3.1.1 The following chart (Chart 1) exhibits the peak
(blue) and trough (red) of monthly seasonal factors of
Broad Money (M3) for every year in the secondary axis
and their difference known as range(green) in the
primary axis. Range of a series shows the change in
seasonal variation over the period. Rest of the article
explains the variation in seasonality by plotting the
range of important economic series over time.
3.1.2 Seasonal variation in Broad Money (M3) was
observed to be lower than Currency in Circulation,
Narrow Money (M1) and Reserve Money (RM) over the
years. After showing upward movement till 2006-07,
the range of M3 declined gradually (Table 2).
3.1.3 The seasonal variations of aggregate deposits
(SCBs) and Non-Food Credit (SCBs) exhibited similar
movements for the entire reference period while the
range of estimated seasonal factors for Aggregate
Deposits always remained lower than Non-Food Credit.
The seasonality of these two series exhibited downward
movement since last couple of years. Seasonality in
Investment indicated an increasing pattern (Table 2
and Chart 2).
3.1.4 Within aggregate deposits, demand deposits of
SCBs witnessed higher seasonal fluctuations than Time
Deposits of SCBs, which remained stable within the narrow band of 1.4 to 2.0 (Table 2). Seasonality of
demand deposits remained within the range of 12.9-
14.2 till 2008-09 and started declining steadily
thereafter.
3.2 Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
3.2.1 The range of seasonal factors of WPI-All
Commodities increased from 1.4 in 2004-05 to 1.7 in
2007-08, and thereafter, reverted to 1.1 in 2010-11
before the gradual increase to 1.4 in 2013-14 (Table 2).
The seasonality in ‘Primary Articles’ prices was more
than three times the seasonality in WPI-Manufactured
Products. Also, during the last four years, seasonal
variation for WPI-Manufactured Products narrowed
down against gradual increase in WPI-Primary Articles
(Table 2 and Chart 3).
3.2.2 Within the Primary Articles group, the seasonal
variation in WPI-Food Articles increased from 4.9 in
2004-05 to 6.8 in 2013-14 whereas it ranged between 2.2-3.1 for WPI-Non Food Articles during the reference
period (Table 2 and Chart 4).
3.2.3 Within the WPI-Food Articles, the pulses group
displayed more seasonal variation than the Cereals
group. Both WPI-Cereals and WPI-Pulses exhibited
stable seasonality in the range of around 2 and 5
respectively (Table 2 and Chart 5).
3.3 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
3.3.1 In the case of CPI for Agricultural Labourers (AL)
and Rural Labourers (RL), similar movement in seasonal
variations was observed during the last ten years with
CPI-AL having slightly higher variation than the CPI-RL.
The seasonality of different CPI series were consistently
higher than WPI-All Commodities. The difference
between the seasonal variations of CPI series and WPI-All
Commodities have however, widened after 2008-09
(Table 2 and Chart 6).
3.4 Industrial Production
3.4.1 Seasonal variation of IIP-General exhibited slight
upward movement during the reference period. Among
the three major sectors of IIP, (viz., Mining,
Manufacturing and Electricity), IIP-Mining and IIP-Electricity
exhibited the highest and lowest seasonal
variation respectively with IIP-Mining showing an
upward trend. IIP-Manufacturing displayed similar
seasonality as IIP-General (Table 2 and Chart 7).
3.4.2 Among the use-based classification goods, IIP-Consumer
Non-durable goods exhibited highest
seasonality, whereas IIP-Intermediate Goods was the
only group where seasonality has reduced over the
years and it showed lowest seasonal variations
throughout the reference period, except for 2008-09
and 2009-10 (Chart 8). Seasonal variations in IIP for
Basic goods and Consumer goods have increased in
recent years.
3.4.3 The seasonal variations of production of ‘Cement’
and ‘Steel’ exhibited opposite movements during 2004-
05 to 2013-14 with higher magnitude of seasonality in
Cement than Steel .The seasonality in ‘Production of
Commercial Motor Vehicles’ decreased from 37.4 in
2004-05 to 28.6 in 2007-08 and thereafter increased
steadily to 31.6 in 2013-14 (Table 2).
3.5 Services Sector Indicators
3.5.1 Over the reference period, seasonality in ‘Railway
Freight Traffic’ was higher as compared to that of ‘Cargo
Handled at Major Ports’. The seasonal variation of
‘Railway Freight Traffic’ gradually increased from 19.9
in 2004-05 to 21.6 in 2013-14 whereas seasonal variation
of ‘Cargo Handled at Major Ports’ decreased from 18.0
in 2004-05 to 15.0 in 2013-14. In last 5 years, the gap in
seasonality is widening between these two series (Table
2).
3.5.2 The seasonal variation of passenger flown in
Domestic area has increased over the years compared
to passenger flown internationally (Table 2).
3.6 External Trade (Merchandise)
The seasonal variation in export was higher than import
except during 2006-09. The gap between variations of
seasonality increased in subsequent years. Non-Oil
Non-Gold Import and total merchandise import have
shown similar seasonality (Table 2 and Chart 9).
4 High and Low Seasonal Variation
Based on the average range of monthly seasonal factors
during last five years (i.e. 2009-10 to 2013-14), External
trade data and Services Sector indicators have exhibited
highest seasonal volatility followed by industrial
production (IIP General and its components) while
seasonal variations of WPI and CPI have been found to
be lower than other series. Money and Banking series
have shown lower seasonal variability relatively.
Comparing seasonal variability of all 85 series, ‘IIP-Food
products and beverages’, ‘IIP-Fabricated metal products,
except machinery & equipment’, ‘Coal Production’,
‘Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles’ and ‘Production
of Commercial Motor Vehicles’ have exhibited high
seasonal variation. On the other hand, ‘WPI-Grain Mill
Products’, ‘WPI-Rice’, ‘WPI-Non-Food Articles’, ‘WPI-Protein
Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish)
Group’ and ‘WPI-Food Grains (Cereals and Pulses)’ have
shown low seasonal variation. (Table 4).
5 Post Crisis: Seasonal Variation
It was observed that, out of 85 series the seasonal
variation for 39 series increased post crisis (after 2008-
09). The series with substantial increase in seasonal
variation post crisis are mainly from production related
except some of the directly affected Money and banking
series like ‘Assets with Banking System (SCBs)’ and
highly inelastic price related series like ‘WPI-Sugar’.
Table 1: Average Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series |
Series/Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
101.4 |
100.9 |
100.2 |
100.2 |
99.8 |
99.7 |
99.7 |
99.4 |
99.1 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
100.7 |
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government |
101.7 |
101.5 |
101.1 |
101.8 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
97.2 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
100.3 |
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector |
101.7 |
101.5 |
101.1 |
101.8 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
97.2 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
100.3 |
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) |
102.5 |
101.4 |
100.6 |
99.1 |
98.6 |
99.4 |
98.3 |
98.3 |
99.2 |
99.2 |
100.0 |
103.6 |
A.1.2.1 Currency with Public |
103.1 |
103.5 |
101.9 |
99.3 |
98.4 |
97.2 |
98.2 |
99.1 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.3 |
100.3 |
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) |
103.1 |
101.8 |
101.1 |
99.7 |
98.9 |
97.8 |
98.6 |
99.2 |
98.5 |
98.6 |
98.9 |
104.1 |
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation |
103.0 |
103.3 |
102.0 |
99.3 |
98.4 |
97.1 |
98.5 |
99.1 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
100.2 |
100.5 |
A.1.3.1.1 Notes in Circulation |
103.0 |
103.4 |
102.1 |
99.2 |
98.3 |
97.0 |
98.4 |
99.3 |
99.1 |
99.5 |
100.2 |
100.5 |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
101.3 |
100.6 |
99.9 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
100.0 |
99.9 |
99.5 |
98.9 |
99.2 |
99.5 |
100.9 |
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) |
101.4 |
98.3 |
97.7 |
98.2 |
98.5 |
102.5 |
99.1 |
98.2 |
99.1 |
98.8 |
99.9 |
108.6 |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.1 |
100.6 |
100.2 |
99.7 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
99.5 |
99.6 |
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) |
104.4 |
98.8 |
100.8 |
101.4 |
101.9 |
101.4 |
99.2 |
100.4 |
97.8 |
96.8 |
98.4 |
99.6 |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
102.8 |
100.9 |
102.1 |
97.9 |
99.0 |
99.7 |
98.4 |
94.0 |
97.8 |
95.6 |
99.4 |
112.4 |
A.3.3 Bank Credit (SCBs) |
101.3 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
99.6 |
99.0 |
99.0 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
100.2 |
102.6 |
A.3.3.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) |
100.6 |
100.0 |
100.1 |
98.9 |
98.6 |
100.7 |
99.2 |
99.3 |
100.3 |
99.7 |
100.1 |
102.5 |
A.3.3.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) |
101.1 |
99.9 |
99.8 |
99.3 |
99.0 |
99.7 |
99.2 |
99.1 |
99.9 |
99.9 |
100.3 |
102.8 |
A.3.4 Investments (SCBs) |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.1 |
101.4 |
101.8 |
100.7 |
101.0 |
100.2 |
98.2 |
98.5 |
98.5 |
97.9 |
B. WPI (Base: 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
100.2 |
100.0 |
100.1 |
100.4 |
100.5 |
100.6 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
99.4 |
99.6 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
B.1 WPI - Primary Articles |
99.6 |
99.6 |
100.5 |
101.1 |
101.7 |
101.3 |
101.3 |
101.2 |
99.1 |
98.8 |
97.9 |
97.9 |
B.1.1 WPI - Food Articles |
99.0 |
99.2 |
99.9 |
101.2 |
101.7 |
102.0 |
102.7 |
102.2 |
99.0 |
99.0 |
97.1 |
96.9 |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
99.1 |
99.0 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.1 |
100.2 |
101.2 |
101.1 |
100.7 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
99.3 |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.2 |
99.4 |
99.9 |
100.0 |
100.7 |
100.7 |
100.4 |
100.7 |
100.6 |
99.7 |
B.1.1.1.1.1 WPI - Wheat |
98.8 |
98.1 |
98.3 |
98.6 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
99.5 |
101.2 |
101.9 |
102.2 |
102.3 |
100.2 |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
99.2 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
99.9 |
100.5 |
100.7 |
101.3 |
101.0 |
100.2 |
99.7 |
99.5 |
99.2 |
B.1.1.1.2 WPI - Pulses |
98.4 |
98.1 |
98.4 |
100.4 |
101.2 |
101.5 |
102.6 |
102.8 |
101.2 |
99.5 |
98.2 |
97.8 |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
97.7 |
98.3 |
100.7 |
104.6 |
105.7 |
106.7 |
108.8 |
106.9 |
95.1 |
93.5 |
90.5 |
90.9 |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
99.9 |
99.8 |
100.0 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
100.1 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
99.8 |
99.9 |
100.0 |
99.7 |
B.1.1.4 WPI - Egg, Meat and Fish |
98.6 |
100.4 |
100.7 |
101.7 |
100.9 |
100.7 |
99.0 |
99.5 |
99.8 |
100.3 |
100.0 |
98.7 |
B.1.1.4.1 WPI - Egg |
95.6 |
95.6 |
98.1 |
97.8 |
97.3 |
98.8 |
99.7 |
104.2 |
105.0 |
105.5 |
102.5 |
99.8 |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
98.7 |
99.7 |
100.5 |
100.5 |
100.0 |
99.2 |
99.0 |
99.9 |
100.3 |
101.4 |
100.7 |
100.1 |
B.1.1.4.3 WPI - Fish |
99.2 |
101.6 |
101.1 |
102.6 |
102.3 |
101.4 |
99.3 |
99.2 |
98.7 |
98.8 |
98.8 |
98.2 |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
99.2 |
99.8 |
100.0 |
100.9 |
100.8 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
99.7 |
99.9 |
99.8 |
99.0 |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
100.5 |
100.3 |
100.4 |
100.4 |
100.7 |
100.5 |
99.0 |
99.2 |
99.5 |
99.9 |
99.4 |
100.5 |
B.1.2.1 WPI - Fibres |
98.9 |
99.2 |
99.7 |
101.9 |
101.9 |
102.9 |
99.9 |
99.6 |
99.3 |
99.7 |
98.8 |
98.3 |
B.1.2.1.1 WPI - Raw Cotton |
98.7 |
99.2 |
99.8 |
102.8 |
103.0 |
104.0 |
99.9 |
99.5 |
98.5 |
99.3 |
98.0 |
97.7 |
B.1.2.2 WPI - Oil Seeds |
100.4 |
100.8 |
101.5 |
101.5 |
101.6 |
101.0 |
98.6 |
98.1 |
98.6 |
99.5 |
99.2 |
99.3 |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
100.4 |
100.5 |
100.3 |
100.2 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
99.5 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
99.8 |
99.7 |
99.7 |
100.2 |
100.4 |
100.6 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
99.3 |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
98.9 |
98.1 |
98.3 |
99.2 |
99.4 |
100.0 |
100.5 |
101.0 |
101.0 |
101.6 |
101.4 |
100.4 |
B.2.1.2 WPI - Sugar |
99.0 |
98.6 |
98.1 |
99.0 |
100.2 |
101.5 |
101.4 |
101.7 |
101.5 |
100.7 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
99.8 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
100.4 |
100.9 |
100.5 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
100.4 |
100.4 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
100.1 |
100.0 |
99.8 |
99.6 |
99.5 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
100.1 |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
100.5 |
100.7 |
100.4 |
100.2 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
99.7 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
99.6 |
99.8 |
100.1 |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) |
99.2 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
100.7 |
100.8 |
100.6 |
101.1 |
100.9 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
99.3 |
98.9 |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
98.9 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.2 |
100.7 |
100.9 |
101.1 |
101.0 |
100.4 |
99.8 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
99.0 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.2 |
100.7 |
100.8 |
101.1 |
101.0 |
100.3 |
99.8 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
Table 1: Average Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series (Concld.) |
Series/Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
D. IIP (Base 2004-05 = 100) General Index |
96.4 |
98.5 |
97.8 |
98.0 |
96.0 |
97.3 |
98.9 |
98.4 |
104.7 |
104.5 |
99.6 |
110.1 |
D.1.1 IIP - Basic Goods Industries |
98.1 |
100.9 |
98.1 |
98.4 |
97.5 |
95.0 |
99.7 |
97.9 |
103.2 |
104.6 |
97.7 |
109.1 |
D.1.2 IIP - Intermediate Goods Industries |
96.5 |
100.3 |
99.5 |
101.5 |
100.3 |
98.4 |
99.3 |
97.9 |
102.7 |
101.0 |
96.7 |
105.8 |
D.1.3 IIP - Consumer Goods Industries |
98.7 |
98.1 |
96.5 |
97.5 |
92.9 |
95.1 |
96.2 |
96.9 |
106.2 |
108.8 |
104.3 |
108.5 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Durable Goods Industries |
98.0 |
100.4 |
98.2 |
100.0 |
96.4 |
101.8 |
106.5 |
100.9 |
96.0 |
99.5 |
97.7 |
104.8 |
D.1.3.2 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
98.6 |
96.2 |
95.2 |
94.9 |
90.6 |
90.1 |
90.1 |
96.2 |
114.7 |
114.5 |
108.6 |
110.2 |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
97.6 |
100.3 |
95.7 |
94.2 |
92.2 |
90.5 |
98.2 |
99.6 |
106.6 |
107.9 |
101.5 |
116.0 |
D.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing |
95.8 |
97.7 |
97.7 |
98.3 |
96.1 |
98.1 |
98.7 |
98.1 |
104.9 |
104.4 |
100.2 |
110.1 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages |
97.3 |
90.1 |
88.6 |
81.2 |
72.3 |
70.2 |
77.1 |
98.2 |
135.6 |
135.7 |
126.6 |
126.3 |
D.2.2.2 IIP - Textiles |
98.4 |
99.7 |
98.3 |
102.6 |
102.5 |
100.2 |
101.4 |
99.6 |
101.6 |
101.3 |
94.4 |
100.0 |
D.2.2.3 IIP - Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials |
90.5 |
102.6 |
98.0 |
100.6 |
99.7 |
96.0 |
95.9 |
98.6 |
108.6 |
100.6 |
103.7 |
106.0 |
D.2.2.4 IIP - Paper and paper products |
97.0 |
101.4 |
99.0 |
102.5 |
101.6 |
99.7 |
100.5 |
98.2 |
100.1 |
99.3 |
95.4 |
105.6 |
D.2.2.5 IIP - Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media |
98.6 |
101.4 |
98.7 |
103.0 |
101.4 |
98.3 |
103.0 |
99.4 |
102.1 |
99.9 |
94.6 |
99.8 |
D.2.2.6 IIP - Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel |
94.7 |
98.8 |
100.7 |
102.4 |
100.8 |
96.6 |
101.0 |
97.2 |
101.8 |
103.8 |
96.5 |
105.5 |
D.2.2.7 IIP - Chemicals and chemical products |
96.4 |
101.0 |
102.5 |
103.6 |
102.6 |
102.1 |
99.5 |
98.0 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
93.9 |
100.0 |
D.2.2.8 IIP - Rubber and plastics products |
99.1 |
103.3 |
102.2 |
99.8 |
95.8 |
97.3 |
98.7 |
99.0 |
101.8 |
101.0 |
96.6 |
105.5 |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products |
101.3 |
101.6 |
98.1 |
98.9 |
94.7 |
93.9 |
100.3 |
95.1 |
102.5 |
103.3 |
99.3 |
111.6 |
D.2.2.10 IIP - Basic metals |
98.0 |
100.3 |
98.5 |
99.2 |
100.2 |
97.9 |
100.2 |
97.9 |
101.1 |
102.2 |
97.4 |
107.4 |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment |
84.2 |
91.7 |
97.4 |
95.0 |
95.6 |
102.2 |
95.7 |
97.8 |
104.8 |
99.8 |
100.9 |
135.9 |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers |
97.2 |
97.2 |
89.8 |
98.5 |
97.2 |
97.4 |
101.9 |
101.2 |
92.4 |
105.9 |
105.4 |
116.2 |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment |
91.1 |
95.3 |
94.6 |
96.8 |
98.4 |
103.7 |
110.2 |
105.5 |
96.3 |
100.8 |
98.3 |
109.5 |
D.2.3 IIP - Electricity |
100.3 |
104.3 |
98.5 |
100.3 |
99.9 |
97.8 |
102.1 |
96.1 |
100.0 |
101.7 |
94.1 |
104.6 |
D.3 Cement Production |
105.2 |
104.3 |
100.0 |
95.9 |
90.8 |
91.3 |
98.0 |
92.2 |
102.1 |
105.9 |
101.2 |
113.9 |
D.4 Steel Production |
96.8 |
100.0 |
97.8 |
98.8 |
100.1 |
97.7 |
100.7 |
96.8 |
101.7 |
104.5 |
98.2 |
106.7 |
D.5 Coal Production |
90.9 |
93.3 |
88.8 |
86.6 |
84.7 |
83.4 |
97.5 |
103.0 |
113.0 |
116.3 |
109.9 |
133.7 |
D.6 Crude Oil Production |
98.9 |
101.3 |
99.4 |
101.4 |
100.8 |
98.0 |
102.0 |
98.7 |
102.1 |
101.6 |
92.8 |
102.9 |
D.7 Petroleum Refinery Production |
96.1 |
100.5 |
100.0 |
101.8 |
101.0 |
95.9 |
100.4 |
97.9 |
101.7 |
103.6 |
96.4 |
104.5 |
D.8 Fertiliser Production |
81.5 |
94.8 |
98.8 |
105.8 |
106.5 |
103.9 |
108.2 |
106.8 |
108.2 |
102.3 |
93.9 |
89.1 |
D.9 Natural Gas Production |
97.5 |
101.4 |
98.4 |
102.0 |
100.8 |
98.0 |
102.9 |
99.6 |
102.6 |
102.0 |
92.0 |
102.7 |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
91.7 |
94.3 |
89.1 |
97.0 |
97.2 |
99.3 |
101.2 |
102.8 |
96.4 |
107.3 |
104.3 |
118.2 |
E.1 Cargo handled at Major Ports |
99.6 |
102.9 |
95.1 |
97.6 |
96.5 |
92.5 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
103.5 |
105.8 |
96.9 |
109.3 |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
97.7 |
101.1 |
96.7 |
97.7 |
95.3 |
92.6 |
97.8 |
97.9 |
104.3 |
106.4 |
98.6 |
113.8 |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
83.0 |
89.0 |
95.6 |
92.0 |
95.0 |
105.6 |
100.0 |
96.5 |
100.4 |
105.7 |
105.9 |
129.5 |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
100.8 |
112.2 |
104.2 |
95.5 |
92.9 |
88.5 |
98.6 |
100.2 |
109.4 |
103.8 |
96.3 |
97.0 |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
96.1 |
99.9 |
101.1 |
107.1 |
104.5 |
92.9 |
92.2 |
94.8 |
106.8 |
110.4 |
94.2 |
100.7 |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
94.1 |
99.4 |
96.6 |
100.7 |
102.5 |
104.1 |
110.6 |
100.8 |
101.9 |
95.2 |
91.5 |
102.2 |
F.1 Exports |
97.5 |
100.0 |
99.8 |
99.5 |
97.1 |
100.4 |
98.0 |
93.1 |
100.6 |
100.6 |
97.1 |
116.1 |
F.2 Imports |
100.5 |
107.4 |
100.0 |
102.5 |
99.1 |
103.9 |
104.1 |
97.1 |
97.5 |
98.7 |
90.0 |
99.3 |
F.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports |
96.0 |
105.6 |
103.0 |
102.8 |
99.1 |
101.9 |
103.4 |
99.3 |
101.3 |
98.7 |
89.8 |
98.4 |
Table 2: Range (Difference Between Peak and Trough) of Seasonal Factors |
Series/Year |
2004-
05 |
2005-
06 |
2006-
07 |
2007-
08 |
2008-
09 |
2009-
10 |
2010-
11 |
2011-
12 |
2012-
13 |
2013-
14 |
Average
Range |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
A.1.2.1 Currency with Public |
6.9 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) |
7.5 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation |
7.0 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
A.1.3.1.1 Notes in Circulation |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) |
12.9 |
14.2 |
14.7 |
14.4 |
14.2 |
13.0 |
11.2 |
9.1 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
11.9 |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) |
14.0 |
13.7 |
12.7 |
11.2 |
9.9 |
7.9 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
7.9 |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
13.1 |
14.3 |
16.2 |
17.9 |
19.0 |
20.2 |
21.3 |
21.7 |
21.1 |
20.1 |
17.6 |
A.3.3 Bank Credit (SCBs) |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
A.3.3.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
A.3.3.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
A.3.4 Investments (SCBs) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
B. WPI (Base 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
B.1 WPI - Primary Articles |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
B.1.1 WPI - Food Articles |
4.9 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
5.9 |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
B.1.1.1.1.1 WPI - Wheat |
5.8 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
B.1.1.1.2 WPI - Pulses |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
20.1 |
20.1 |
19.4 |
18.6 |
17.7 |
17.0 |
16.8 |
17.0 |
18.1 |
19.0 |
18.4 |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
B.1.1.4 WPI - Egg, Meat and Fish |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
B.1.1.4.1 WPI - Egg |
13.9 |
12.3 |
10.6 |
9.1 |
8.1 |
7.6 |
8.6 |
10.2 |
11.4 |
12.2 |
10.4 |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
5.2 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
B.1.1.4.3 WPI - Fish |
7.9 |
8.3 |
7.6 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
B.1.2.1 WPI - Fibres |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
B.1.2.1.1 WPI - Raw Cotton |
6.1 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
7.4 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
B.1.2.2 WPI - Oil Seeds |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
B.2.1.2 WPI - Sugar |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (2001=100) |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
Table 2: Range (Difference Between Peak and Trough) of Seasonal Factors (Concld.) |
Series/Year |
2004-
05 |
2005-
06 |
2006-
07 |
2007-
08 |
2008-
09 |
2009-
10 |
2010-
11 |
2011-
12 |
2012-
13 |
2013-
14 |
Average
Range |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
D. IIP (Base 2004-05 = 100) General Index |
12.7 |
13.5 |
13.9 |
14.1 |
14.0 |
14.4 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
15.8 |
16.0 |
14.5 |
D.1.1 IIP - Basic Goods Industries |
11.5 |
12.4 |
13.2 |
13.9 |
14.4 |
14.8 |
15.2 |
15.3 |
15.2 |
15.0 |
14.1 |
D.1.2 IIP - Intermediate Goods Industries |
9.1 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
9.8 |
9.4 |
9.0 |
8.9 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
9.4 |
D.1.3 IIP - Consumer Goods Industries |
17.9 |
16.0 |
15.2 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
15.3 |
16.0 |
16.9 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
16.3 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Durable Goods Industries |
12.4 |
12.4 |
11.6 |
10.4 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
10.5 |
12.2 |
13.1 |
14.3 |
11.5 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
23.0 |
22.6 |
23.1 |
23.8 |
24.7 |
25.2 |
26.0 |
26.3 |
27.3 |
27.9 |
25.0 |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
21.1 |
22.7 |
23.9 |
25.0 |
25.8 |
26.4 |
26.9 |
27.3 |
27.5 |
27.6 |
25.4 |
D.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing |
14.2 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
14.4 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
15.6 |
15.6 |
14.8 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages* |
|
|
68.0 |
67.6 |
66.4 |
65.4 |
64.7 |
64.2 |
65.2 |
66.7 |
67.9 |
D.2.2.2 IIP - Textiles* |
|
|
9.2 |
9.2 |
9.0 |
8.5 |
8.0 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
8.5 |
D.2.2.3 IIP - Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials* |
|
|
20.4 |
20.2 |
19.7 |
19.2 |
18.5 |
17.6 |
16.6 |
15.8 |
18.5 |
D.2.2.4 IIP - Paper and paper products* |
|
|
11.0 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
10.6 |
10.1 |
9.6 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
10.2 |
D.2.2.5 IIP - Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media* |
|
|
8.8 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
8.4 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
9.2 |
8.6 |
D.2.2.6 IIP - Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel* |
|
|
11.3 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
D.2.2.7 IIP - Chemicals and chemical products* |
|
|
10.0 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.3 |
9.5 |
8.8 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
D.2.2.8 IIP - Rubber and plastics products* |
|
|
8.5 |
8.9 |
9.1 |
9.4 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
9.7 |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products* |
|
|
16.4 |
16.5 |
16.8 |
17.4 |
18.0 |
18.6 |
19.0 |
19.4 |
17.7 |
D.2.2.10 IIP - Basic metals* |
|
|
10.6 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.4 |
10.1 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
10.7 |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment* |
|
|
42.1 |
43.4 |
46.1 |
49.6 |
53.6 |
56.9 |
59.2 |
60.5 |
51.4 |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers* |
|
|
25.9 |
25.9 |
26.0 |
26.2 |
26.5 |
26.6 |
26.7 |
26.9 |
26.3 |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment* |
|
|
23.5 |
22.6 |
21.3 |
19.6 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
17.5 |
16.7 |
19.9 |
D.2.3 IIP - Electricity |
10.3 |
9.9 |
9.8 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
11.2 |
11.2 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
12.4 |
10.8 |
D.3 Cement Production |
21.7 |
21.3 |
21.2 |
21.6 |
22.5 |
23.4 |
24.1 |
25.0 |
25.7 |
26.2 |
24.2 |
D.4 Steel Production |
12.6 |
12.2 |
11.7 |
10.7 |
10.1 |
10.5 |
10.7 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
D.5 Coal Production |
39.2 |
42.2 |
45.7 |
48.5 |
50.4 |
52.3 |
54.5 |
56.3 |
57.2 |
57.2 |
50.4 |
D.6 Crude Oil Production |
10.1 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
10.2 |
10.0 |
10.2 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
10.1 |
10.0 |
10.2 |
D.7 Petroleum Refinery Production |
9.5 |
9.3 |
8.9 |
8.6 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
9.6 |
10.5 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
9.4 |
D.8 Fertiliser Production* |
27.5 |
27.5 |
27.3 |
26.7 |
26.3 |
26.0 |
26.6 |
27.3 |
28.3 |
27.0 |
27.0 |
D.9 Natural Gas Production* |
11.1 |
11.5 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
11.8 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
11.2 |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
37.4 |
32.5 |
28.8 |
28.6 |
29.0 |
29.5 |
29.8 |
30.1 |
30.6 |
31.6 |
30.8 |
E.1 Cargo handled at Major Ports |
18.0 |
18.3 |
18.2 |
17.8 |
17.3 |
16.7 |
16.3 |
15.7 |
15.3 |
15.0 |
16.9 |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
19.9 |
20.7 |
21.3 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.6 |
21.2 |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
57.5 |
53.3 |
50.4 |
47.5 |
45.2 |
43.3 |
42.0 |
41.5 |
41.7 |
42.3 |
46.5 |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
21.7 |
20.8 |
21.1 |
22.6 |
23.8 |
25.3 |
26.0 |
26.5 |
26.3 |
26.2 |
24.0 |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
20.7 |
20.0 |
19.3 |
18.4 |
17.8 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
18.6 |
18.4 |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
13.6 |
14.6 |
16.4 |
18.3 |
20.0 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
22.4 |
21.6 |
20.9 |
19.2 |
F.1 Exports |
26.6 |
24.6 |
21.9 |
19.9 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
22.3 |
23.9 |
24.8 |
25.1 |
23.0 |
F.2 Imports |
20.6 |
21.7 |
22.7 |
22.3 |
20.6 |
17.4 |
14.5 |
12.2 |
12.1 |
12.9 |
17.7 |
F.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports |
12.5 |
14.2 |
16.5 |
19.2 |
20.5 |
19.9 |
18.1 |
15.7 |
14.0 |
12.9 |
16.4 |
*Seasonal adjustment for these series is based on 8 to 9 years data depending on availability. Guidelines of both, Office of National Statistics (ONS), UK,
and US Census Bureau, however, suggest using more than ten years data for estimating stable monthly seasonal factors. |
Table 3: Change in seasonal variation in 2013-14 vis-à-vis previous 5-years (2008-09 to 2012-13) |
Series |
2013-14 |
Average
Range* |
Change |
Series |
2013-14 |
Average
Range* |
Change |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
1.6 |
2.2 |
-0.5 |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government |
4.3 |
4.8 |
-0.4 |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.5 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector |
4.3 |
4.8 |
-0.4 |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.3 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) |
4.3 |
5.3 |
-1.0 |
D. IIP (Base: 2004-05=100) General Index |
16.0 |
14.9 |
1.1 |
A.1.2.1 Currency with Public |
5.4 |
6.0 |
-0.6 |
D.1.1 IIP - Basic Goods Industries |
15.0 |
15.0 |
0.0 |
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) |
5.6 |
6.4 |
-0.7 |
D.1.2 IIP - Intermediate Goods Industries |
8.6 |
9.2 |
-0.6 |
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation |
5.1 |
5.9 |
-0.8 |
D.1.3 IIP - Consumer Goods Industries |
18.4 |
16.2 |
2.2 |
A.1.3.1.1 Notes in Circulation |
5.5 |
6.1 |
-0.6 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Durable Goods Industries |
14.3 |
10.8 |
3.5 |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
1.6 |
2.2 |
-0.6 |
D.1.3.2 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
14.3 |
10.8 |
3.5 |
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) |
6.4 |
10.9 |
-4.6 |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
27.6 |
26.8 |
0.8 |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
1.4 |
1.8 |
-0.4 |
D.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing |
15.6 |
14.8 |
0.8 |
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) |
4.3 |
6.8 |
-2.4 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
20.1 |
20.7 |
-0.6 |
D.2.2.2 IIP - Textiles |
8.3 |
8.3 |
0.0 |
A.3.3 Bank Credit (SCBs) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
-1.0 |
D.2.2.3 IIP - Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials |
15.8 |
18.3 |
-2.5 |
A.3.3.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) |
3.6 |
4.0 |
-0.4 |
D.2.2.4 IIP - Paper and paper products |
9.0 |
10.1 |
-1.1 |
A.3.3.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) |
2.8 |
3.9 |
-1.2 |
D.2.2.5 IIP - Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media |
9.2 |
8.5 |
0.7 |
A.3.4 Investments (SCBs) |
4.4 |
4.3 |
0.1 |
D.2.2.6 IIP - Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel |
10.9 |
10.7 |
0.2 |
B. WPI (Base 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
D.2.2.7 IIP - Chemicals and chemical products |
9.0 |
10.0 |
-1.0 |
B.1 WPI - Primary Article |
4.0 |
3.6 |
0.3 |
D.2.2.8 IIP - Rubber and plastics products |
10.8 |
9.8 |
1.0 |
B.1.1 WPI - Food Articles |
6.8 |
6.2 |
0.6 |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products |
19.4 |
17.9 |
1.4 |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
D.2.2.10 IIP - Basic metals |
11.1 |
10.6 |
0.6 |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
2.1 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment |
60.5 |
53.1 |
7.4 |
B.1.1.1.1.1 WPI - Wheat |
4.2 |
3.7 |
0.4 |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers |
26.9 |
26.4 |
0.5 |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
3.8 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment |
16.7 |
19.3 |
-2.6 |
B.1.1.1.2 WPI - Pulses |
5.0 |
5.2 |
-0.1 |
D.2.3 IIP - Electricity |
12.4 |
11.1 |
1.3 |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
19.0 |
17.3 |
1.7 |
D.3 Cement Production |
26.2 |
24.1 |
2.0 |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
D.4 Steel Production |
11.0 |
10.6 |
0.4 |
B.1.1.4 WPI - Egg, Meat and Fish |
4.3 |
3.5 |
0.8 |
D.5 Coal Production |
57.2 |
54.1 |
3.1 |
B.1.1.4.1 WPI - Egg |
12.2 |
9.2 |
3.0 |
D.6 Crude Oil Production |
10.0 |
10.2 |
-0.2 |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
2.4 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
D.7 Petroleum Refinery Production |
10.6 |
9.5 |
1.1 |
B.1.1.4.3 WPI - Fish |
5.7 |
4.8 |
0.9 |
D.8 Fertiliser Production |
27.0 |
26.9 |
0.2 |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
2.8 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
D.9 Natural Gas Production |
10.4 |
11.0 |
-0.5 |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
2.4 |
2.8 |
-0.4 |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
31.6 |
29.8 |
1.8 |
B.1.2.1 WPI - Fibres |
5.2 |
4.9 |
0.4 |
E.1 Cargo handled at Major Ports |
15.0 |
16.3 |
-1.3 |
B.1.2.1.1 WPI - Raw Cotton |
5.9 |
6.3 |
-0.4 |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
21.6 |
21.4 |
0.1 |
B.1.2.2 WPI - Oil Seeds |
3.8 |
3.9 |
-0.1 |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
26.2 |
24.1 |
2.0 |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
0.3 |
0.8 |
-0.5 |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
42.3 |
42.7 |
-0.4 |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
2.0 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
18.6 |
17.4 |
1.1 |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
3.1 |
3.1 |
0.0 |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
20.9 |
21.6 |
-0.7 |
B.2.1.2 WPI - Sugar |
4.3 |
4.8 |
-0.5 |
F.1 Exports |
25.1 |
22.3 |
2.8 |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
1.1 |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
F.2 Imports |
12.9 |
15.4 |
-2.5 |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
0.5 |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
F.3 Non-oil Non-Gold Imports |
12.9 |
17.7 |
-4.8 |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
0.9 |
1.5 |
-0.6 |
|
|
|
|
*Average Range of Monthly Seasonal Factors for the last 5-years (2008-09 to 2012-13). |
Table 4: List of Top-Twenty and Bottom-Twenty Series based on Average Range of Monthly Seasonal
Factors during Last Five Years |
Top-Twenty Series |
Average
Range |
Peak
Month |
Trough
Month |
Bottom-Twenty Series |
Average
Range |
Peak
Month |
Trough
Month |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages |
65.3 |
Jan |
Sep |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
3.1 |
Jan |
May |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment |
56.0 |
Mar |
Apr |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
2.9 |
Oct |
Mar |
D.5 Coal Production |
55.5 |
Mar |
Sep |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
2.8 |
Apr |
Oct |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
42.2 |
Mar |
Apr |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
2.6 |
Sep |
Apr |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
30.3 |
Mar |
Jun |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
2.5 |
Oct |
May |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
27.1 |
Mar |
Sep |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) |
2.3 |
Oct |
Mar |
D.8 Fertiliser Production |
27.0 |
Oct |
Apr |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.3 |
Nov |
Mar |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers |
26.6 |
Mar |
Jun |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.2 |
Oct |
Mar |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
26.5 |
Jan |
Sep |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
2.0 |
Apr |
Dec |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
26.1 |
May |
Sep |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
2.0 |
Apr |
Dec |
D.3 Cement Production |
24.9 |
Mar |
Aug |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
1.9 |
Oct |
Apr |
F.1 Exports |
23.0 |
Mar |
Nov |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
1.8 |
Jan |
Apr |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
21.8 |
Oct |
Feb |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
1.6 |
Apr |
Dec |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
21.4 |
Mar |
Sep |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
1.5 |
Sep |
Mar |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
20.9 |
Mar |
Nov |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
1.4 |
Aug |
Nov |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products |
18.5 |
Mar |
Sep |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
1.3 |
May |
Dec |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment |
18.4 |
Mar |
Apr |
B. WPI (Base 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
1.3 |
Sep |
Mar |
F.2 Imports |
17.7 |
May |
Feb |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
1.0 |
Jul |
Mar |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
17.6 |
Jan |
Sep |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
0.8 |
Apr |
Dec |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
17.6 |
Oct |
Feb |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
0.7 |
May |
Dec |
|