Publications

Table 1

India's Share in World Exports
(US $ million)

Year

Share(%)

5 years

5-year

(YOY)

average

1951

2.10

1955

1.43

1951-55

1.64

1960

1.13

1956-60

1.23

1965

0.99

1961-65

1.08

1970

0.68

1966-70

0.80

1971

0.61

1972

0.62

1973

0.53

1974

0.48

1975

0.52

1971-75

0.55

1976

0.59

1977

0.59

1978

0.54

1979

0.49

1980

0.45

1976-80

0.53

1981

0.44

1982

0.53

1983

0.53

1984

0.54

1985

0.49

1981-85

0.51

1986

0.46

1987

0.47

1988

0.48

1989

0.53

1990

0.53

1986-90

0.49

1991

0.50

1992

0.52

1993

0.58

1994

0.59

1995

0.60

1991-95

0.56

1996

0.62

1997

0.62

1998

0.60

1999

0.66

1996-99*

0.62

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Year book (various issues)

*: 4-year average

Table 2

Ratio of Exports to GDP

Year

Exports/GDP

5 years

5-year

% (YOY)

average

1950-51

6.10

1954-55

5.55

1950-51 - 1954-55

5.74

1959-60

4.08

1955-56 - 1959-60

4.49

1964-65

3.11

1961-62 - 1964-65

3.49

1969-70

3.30

1965-66 - 1969-70

3.33

1970-71

3.35

1971-72

3.28

1972-73

3.64

1973-74

3.83

1974-75

4.28

1970-71 - 1974-75

3.68

1975-76

4.83

1976-77

5.71

1977-78

5.31

1978-79

5.18

1979-80

5.29

1975-76 - 1979-80

5.26

1980-81

4.65

1981-82

4.60

1982-83

4.66

1983-84

4.44

1984-85

4.78

1980-81 - 1984-85

4.63

1985-86

3.92

1986-87

4.01

1987-88

4.43

1988-89

4.82

1989-90

5.71

1985-86 - 1989-90

4.58

1990-91

5.73

1991-92

6.73

1992-93

7.17

1993-94

8.12

1994-95

8.19

1990-91 - 1994-95

7.19

1995-96

9.00

1996-97

8.72

1997-98

8.58

1998-99

7.93

1995-96 - 1998-99*

8.56

Source: Economic Survey (various issues)

Note: Numerator is Exports in Rs crore terms. Denominator is GDPmp at current prices in Rs crore terms for the base 1993-94=100. Figures of GDPmp at current prices for base 1981-82 have been converted to base 1993-94 by using splicing factors. These figures are similar to the ones given in RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 1999.

*: 4-year average

Table 3

Debt-Service Ratio (%)

Year

Debt-Service Ratio(%)

Year

Debt-Service Ratio(%)

1950-51

2.7

1987-88

23.5

1965-66

24.2

1988-89

26.5

1968-69

20.5

1989-90

30.9

1976-77

10.4

1990-91

35.3

1978-79

9.1

1991-92

30.2

1979-80

8.5

1992-93

27.5

1980-81

9.3

1993-94

25.6

1982-83

10.0

1994-95

26.2

1983-84

11.6

1995-96

24.3

1984-85

12.1

1996-97

21.2

1985-86

16.7

1997-98

19.1

1986-87

22.0

1998-99

18.0

Source:

CMIE-Performance of Indian Economy during Indira Gandhi's Regime, 1984 (from 1950-51 to 1978-79)

Economic Survey (various issues) (from 1979-80 to 1988-89)

RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 1999 (from 1990-91 to 1998-99)

Note:

Data on short-term debt and estimated interest payments on NRI deposits are not available prior to 1988-89. Hence the series from 1988-89 onwards is not strictly comparable with that prior to 1988-89. Data for 1978-79 excludes debt service on account of suppliers' credits.

Debt-Service Ratio = Debt service payments as a percent of current receipts where, Debt service payments includes amortisation and interest payments with respect to external assistance (inclusive of non-government account), external commercial borrowings, IMF credits, NRI deposits and rupee debt service; and

Current receipts include gross receipts under merchandise exports and invisibles except official transfers

Table 4

Percentage Change in Unit Value Index Numbers and Terms of Trade

(1978-79=100)

Unit value index

Net

5 years

(% change)

TOT

Year

Exports

Imports

YoY%

5-year

YoY%

5-year

Level

YOY%

5-year

average

average

average

1955-56

-8.16

-9.23

104.48

1.18

1959-60

0.00

-0.96

-7.00

-2.01

109.78

7.53

1.36

1955-56 - 1959-60

1964-65

1.90

1.46

2.06

1.30

110.34

-0.15

0.17

1960-61 - 1964-65

1969-70

4.00

11.48

0.00

8.72

125.00

4.00

2.65

1965-66 - 1969-70

1970-71

2.27

0.28

127.48

1.98

1971-72

2.22

-7.08

140.24

10.01

1972-73

11.30

4.27

149.71

6.75

1973-74

21.48

42.98

127.20

-15.04

1974-75

25.40

12.54

72.80

22.65

92.31

-27.43

-4.74

1970-71 - 1974-75

1975-76

7.56

17.28

84.66

-8.28

1976-77

6.56

-2.83

92.83

9.65

1977-78

12.19

-8.62

113.98

22.77

1978-79

-0.30

13.64

100.00

-12.26

1979-80

5.40

6.28

14.10

6.71

92.38

-7.62

0.85

1975-76 - 1979-80

1980-81

2.94

17.62

80.85

-12.48

1981-82

14.38

-0.82

93.24

15.32

1982-83

6.37

2.40

96.85

3.87

1983-84

14.39

-7.70

120.03

23.94

1984-85

12.45

10.11

28.54

8.01

105.01

-12.52

3.63

1980-81 - 1984-85

1985-86

0.59

-1.79

107.56

2.43

1986-87

5.04

-12.22

128.69

19.65

1987-88

8.92

14.78

122.13

-5.10

1988-89

18.83

15.94

125.18

2.50

1989-90

19.12

10.50

23.13

7.97

121.10

-3.25

3.24

1985-86 - 1989-90

1990-91

5.75

17.21

109.26

-9.78

1991-92

26.32

15.47

119.54

9.41

1992-93

14.07

7.09

127.34

6.53

1993-94

12.48

-1.15

144.90

13.79

1994-95

4.32

12.59

-0.79

7.56

152.37

5.16

5.02

1990-91 - 1994-95

1995-96

-2.10

8.13

137.95

-9.47

1996-97

4.23

13.90

126.24

-8.49

1997-98

16.78

1.10

145.82

15.51

1998-99

3.83

5.69

0.94

6.02

150.00

2.87

0.11

1995-96 - 1998-99*

Primary Source : DGCI&S, Calcutta;

Secondary Source : Economic Survey (various issues) and Report on Currency and Finance (various issues)

Note : Data for different base periods are spliced to base 1978-79.

*: 4-year average

Table 5

Percentage Change in Nominal and Real Exports

Exports (% change)

Imports (% change)

Volume index (% change)

5 years

Year

US$mn

Rs crore

US$mn

Rs crore

Exports

Imports

YoY

5-year

YoY

5-year

YoY

5-year

YoY

5-year

YoY

5-year

YoY

5-year

avg

avg

avg

avg

avg

avg

1951-52

17.42

18.15

45.48

46.38

1954-55

10.68

0.34

11.68

0.61

13.84

6.42

14.75

6.73

5.00

5.00

18.28

5.64*

1951-52 - 1954-55

1957-58

-6.99

-7.27

23.43

23.07

8.18

13.87

1959-60

10.17

1.89

10.15

1.70

6.05

7.36

6.07

7.18

7.00

2.22

10.00

7.43

1955-56 - 1959-60

1964-65

2.53

4.97

2.90

5.11

9.97

7.09

10.30

7.22

4.76

4.48

8.15

6.07

1960-61 - 1964-65

1966-67

-3.84

42.84

-0.71

47.48

-4.03

-3.25

1967-68

-2.58

3.63

-9.13

-3.37

2.52

11.41

1969-70

4.36

2.04

4.05

12.61

-16.87

-5.49

-17.13

5.30

0.00

1.76

-16.00

-2.28

1965-66 - 1969-70

1974-75

30.07

17.84

31.95

19.18

50.73

24.35

52.93

25.70

6.04

5.83

-11.47

4.17

1970-71 - 1974-75

1976-77

23.32

27.40

-6.69

-3.63

18.48

0.13

1977-78

9.79

5.17

23.85

18.64

-3.72

31.41

1978-79

10.48

5.88

18.05

13.14

7.30

0.00

1979-80

13.89

13.85

12.09

14.36

36.40

15.80

34.24

15.78

6.20

7.82

16.40

9.28

1975-76 - 1979-80

1980-81

6.78

4.57

40.17

37.25

1.79

18.47

1981-82

2.57

16.32

-4.38

8.44

1.85

9.21

1982-83

4.63

12.77

-2.55

5.03

5.99

2.66

1983-84

3.76

11.00

3.54

10.76

-3.17

19.92

1984-85

4.54

4.46

20.19

12.97

-5.87

6.18

8.23

13.94

6.90

2.67

-15.80

6.89

1980-81 - 1984-85

1985-86

-9.86

-7.23

11.48

14.73

-7.86

16.78

1986-87

9.45

14.29

-2.12

2.23

8.98

16.46

1987-88

24.05

25.88

9.09

10.69

15.42

-3.53

1988-89

15.56

29.08

13.65

26.93

8.64

9.47

1989-90

18.91

11.62

36.70

19.74

8.83

8.19

25.12

15.94

14.99

8.03

1.61

8.16

1985-86 - 1989-90

1990-91

9.22

17.70

13.46

22.28

10.98

4.35

1991-92

-1.53

35.29

-19.37

10.77

7.47

-4.08

1992-93

3.76

21.90

12.73

32.44

6.86

23.68

1993-94

19.97

29.92

6.51

15.35

15.52

16.70

1994-95

18.40

9.96

18.53

24.67

22.95

7.25

23.08

20.78

13.67

10.90

24.07

12.94

1990-91 - 1994-95

1995-96

20.76

28.64

28.00

36.35

31.29

26.08

1996-97

5.26

11.72

6.69

13.24

7.16

-0.58

1997-98

4.59

9.50

6.01

10.98

-6.27

9.83

1998-99

-5.11

6.38

7.42

14.32

2.18

10.72

15.67

19.06

3.37

8.89

14.57

12.47*

1995-96 - 1998-99

1999-2000

13.19

7.74

16.58

14.77

11.38

10.85

14.72

18.19

1995-96 - 1999-00

Primary Source: DGCI&S, Calcutta; Secondary Source: Economic Survey (various issues) and Report on Currency & Finance (various issues)

Note: Data for different base periods for volume index are spliced to base 1978-79; *: 4-year average.

Table 6

Percentage Change in REER and NEER Indices

(36 country bilateral weights, 1985=100)

Export-Based Weight

Trade-Based Weight

REER

NEER

REER

NEER

YoY%

5-year avg

YoY%

5-year avg

YoY%

5-year avg

YoY%

  5-year avg

1961

-0.76

1.19

-0.71

0.50

1962

1.10

0.65

1.55

1.03

1963

-0.51

-0.06

-0.39

-0.07

1964

5.70

1.05

5.95

0.55

1965

2.85

1.67

0.67

0.70

3.58

1.99

0.45

0.49

1966

-18.28

-24.09

-18.21

-23.87

1967

-7.75

-16.78

-7.62

-16.62

1968

0.44

2.51

0.36

2.05

1969

-5.54

0.15

-5.25

0.10

1970

0.27

-6.17

-0.02

-7.64

0.62

-6.02

0.04

-7.66

1971

-6.67

-6.09

-8.75

-8.20

1972

-2.80

-5.20

-2.86

-5.62

1973

-1.30

-7.02

-1.83

-7.64

1974

6.95

-3.54

6.65

-4.02

1975

-9.88

-2.74

-1.83

-4.74

-10.48

-3.45

-2.41

-5.58

1976

-12.20

-1.96

-12.92

-2.14

1977

-0.85

0.31

-0.94

0.34

1978

-6.62

0.06

-6.30

0.02

1979

3.03

0.79

2.44

-0.06

1980

10.95

-1.14

4.52

0.74

11.46

-1.25

4.34

0.50

1981

-1.30

0.38

0.19

1.29

1982

-3.88

1.07

-3.71

1.20

1983

1.26

-0.43

1.82

0.34

1984

-2.20

-3.80

-1.51

-2.78

1985

-1.63

-1.55

-2.75

-1.11

-1.87

-1.02

-2.22

-0.43

1986

-7.99

-11.47

-7.85

-11.32

1987

-7.12

-7.57

-7.29

-7.84

1988

-3.94

-6.09

-3.84

-5.73

1989

-5.45

-6.23

-4.60

-5.88

1990

-3.97

-5.69

-5.19

-7.31

-2.27

-5.17

-4.50

-7.05

1991

-13.40

-19.38

-12.35

-18.73

1992

-6.23

-14.31

-3.96

-12.54

1993

-4.41

-8.26

-6.58

-9.67

1994

6.84

-0.97

7.11

-0.88

1995

-1.68

-3.78

-7.23

-10.03

-1.66

-3.49

-7.37

-9.84

1996

-2.19

-5.18

-2.19

-5.46

1997

6.61

3.53

7.09

3.81

1998

-2.79

0.54*

-7.17

-2.94*

-2.33

0.86*

-6.94

-2.86*

Source : RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 1999 and RBI Bulletin, July 1993. The official exchange rate is used from January 1975 to February 1992. Since March 1992, the FEDAI indicative rate is used.

Table 7

Normalised weights for constructing REER and NEER Indices for India (%)

S. No.

Country

Export based

Total trade

1

USA

23.63

20.16

2

U K

10.77

10.6

3

Germany

8.62

10.25

4

Japan

16.2

13.49

5

France

3.63

3.94

6

Italy

3.79

3.16

7

Switzerland

2.08

1.71

8

Australia

2.01

2.63

9

S.Korea

1.24

1.49

10

Mexico

0.09

0.23

11

Canada

1.56

2.64

A.

Subtotal (1 to 11)

73.62

70.3

12

Belgium

3.32

5.28

13

Netherlands

3.41

2.92

14

Argentina

0.06

0.22

15

Bangladesh

1.87

0.82

16

Brazil

1.17

1.63

17

China

0.71

0.89

18

Colombia

0.01

0.04

19

Egypt

1.66

0.92

20

Indonesia

1.05

0.64

21

Israel

0.38

0.32

22

Kenya

0.51

0.27

23

Malaysia

1.13

2.48

24

Pakistan

0.28

0.34

25

Philippines

0.26

1.02

26

Saudi Arabia

3.25

5.85

27

Singapore

2.42

2.85

28

Sri Lanka

1.45

0.66

29

Thailand

0.95

0.68

30

Turkey

0.21

0.31

31

Yugoslavia

0.75

0.64

32

Nigeria

0.8

0.38

33

Sudan

0.61

0.34

34

Myanmar

0.1

0.18

35

Guatemala

0.01

0

36

Uruguay

0.02

0.01

B.

Subtotal (12 to 36)

26.39

29.69

Total
(A+B)

100.01

99.99

Source : Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, July 1993

Note : The first 11 countries are also included in the 15-country leading index. The countries included in the 15-country leading index but not included in the 36-countries for REER and NEER are Spain, Sweden, New Zealand, and Taiwan.

Table 8A

Share in India's Exports (%, Rs crores) of G-7 Trading Partners Included in the 15-Country Leading Index

Year

USA

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

UK

Italy

Total G-7

1955-56

14.31

2.30

4.96

1.17

2.45

27.28

0.92

53.39

1960-61

15.97

2.74

5.50

1.37

3.10

26.87

1.45

56.99

1964-65

18.00

2.14

7.46

1.45

2.17

20.50

1.23

52.96

1965-66

18.25

2.51

7.05

1.38

2.25

17.99

1.05

50.47

1969-70

16.84

1.86

12.70

1.54

2.12

11.68

0.91

47.65

1970-71

13.49

1.82

13.22

1.17

2.08

11.07

0.91

43.78

1974-75

11.26

1.32

8.92

2.58

3.18

9.37

1.56

38.21

1975-76

12.59

1.04

10.58

2.08

2.92

10.01

1.96

41.18

1976-77

11.07

0.97

10.58

3.46

4.47

10.13

2.31

43.00

1977-78

12.52

0.85

9.36

2.70

4.53

9.71

1.87

41.53

1978-79

13.48

0.84

10.39

3.07

4.77

9.22

2.39

44.17

1979-80

12.57

0.98

10.02

3.05

5.91

7.92

3.32

43.77

1980-81

11.09

0.92

8.91

2.19

5.74

5.89

2.26

37.00

1981-82

11.79

0.86

8.84

1.90

4.50

5.38

2.02

35.28

1982-83

10.53

0.66

2.65

1.66

3.85

4.78

1.59

25.72

1983-84

14.98

0.95

8.48

1.64

4.17

5.04

1.68

36.94

1984-85

15.04

1.12

8.76

1.63

4.16

5.22

1.81

37.73

1985-86

18.12

1.21

10.68

1.86

4.71

4.81

1.89

43.29

1986-87

18.72

1.10

10.72

2.18

5.89

5.62

2.50

46.72

1987-88

18.63

1.06

10.30

2.42

6.76

6.48

3.18

48.81

Primary Source : DGCI&S, Ministry of Commerce

Secondary Source : RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 1999; Report on Currency & Finance (various issues) and Statistical Abstract of India (various issues).

Note : Figures given in IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook are mainly based on those reported by a country's compiling agency. Hence, the figures reported here are similar to the ones provided in IMF-DOTS, given that DGCI&S, Ministry of Commerce is the compiling agency for India.

Table 8B

Share in India's Exports (%, Rs crores) of 7 Trading Partners out of Remaining 8 Included in the 15-Country Leading Index

Year

Spain

Switzerland

Sweden

Australia

New Zealand

Mexico

Korea

Total-14

1955-56

0.08

0.16

0.03

4.07

0.75

0.03

58.50

1960-61

0.15

0.21

0.23

3.49

1.15

0.01

62.24

1964-65

0.14

0.54

0.21

2.45

0.66

0.03

56.99

1965-66

0.13

0.44

0.21

2.16

0.81

0.04

54.26

1969-70

0.21

0.54

0.37

1.73

0.41

0.06

50.96

1970-71

0.17

0.46

0.38

1.56

0.38

0.06

46.81

1974-75

0.25

0.49

0.47

1.98

0.62

0.03

42.05

1975-76

0.23

1.29

0.32

1.19

0.32

0.03

44.56

1976-77

0.25

1.48

0.49

1.28

0.25

0.04

46.79

1977-78

0.16

0.98

0.41

1.53

0.26

0.03

44.91

1978-79

0.26

1.69

0.41

1.55

0.22

0.02

48.33

1979-80

0.33

1.59

0.52

1.57

0.36

0.05

48.19

1980-81

0.23

1.65

0.42

1.37

0.28

0.07

0.66

41.68

1981-82

0.32

1.45

0.41

1.43

0.27

0.09

39.25

1982-83

0.38

1.14

0.34

1.07

0.21

0.04

28.89

1983-84

0.37

1.26

0.30

1.00

0.17

0.02

40.05

1984-85

0.27

0.92

0.34

1.18

0.19

0.03

0.77

41.42

1985-86

0.25

0.98

0.36

1.13

0.15

0.04

0.91

47.10

1986-87

0.52

1.28

0.44

1.17

0.17

0.03

0.85

51.19

1987-88

0.53

1.30

0.49

1.15

0.16

0.04

0.93

53.41

1988-89

0.63

1.34

0.37

1.31

0.15

0.06

0.90

51.40

1989-90

0.64

1.32

0.40

1.21

0.13

0.09

0.97

49.00

1990-91

0.87

1.23

0.49

0.99

0.12

0.12

2.02

50.56

1991-92

1.10

1.23

0.52

1.13

0.14

0.16

1.34

51.37

1992-93

1.08

1.07

0.54

1.20

0.17

0.23

0.94

53.13

1993-94

0.87

0.99

0.48

1.10

0.15

0.26

0.93

49.73

1994-95

1.02

0.94

0.56

1.32

0.21

0.30

1.26

51.91

1995-96

1.23

0.89

0.46

1.18

0.19

0.17

1.41

48.90

1996-97

1.27

0.90

0.46

1.15

0.20

0.23

1.55

49.09

1997-98

1.23

1.05

0.46

1.25

0.19

0.31

1.34

48.90

1998-99

0.97

1.17

0.83

48.61

Primary Source : DGCI&S, Ministry of Commerce

Secondary Source : RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 1999; Report on Currency & Finance (various issues) and Statistical Abstract of India (various issues).

Note : Of the countries included in the 15-country leading index, figures for Taiwan are missing.

Figures given in IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook are mainly based on those reported by a country's compiling agency. Hence, the figures reported here are similar to the ones provided in IMF-DOTS, given that DGCI&S, Ministry of Commerce is the compiling agency for India.

Table 9

Turning Points of Leading Index for Exports vis-a vis Quantum Index of Exports

Quantum Index of Exports

Leading Index of Lead (-) Exports, Level

OR

Lag(+)

Troughs

Peaks

Troughs

Peaks

Troughs

Peaks

02/1976

03/1976

1

11/1978

06/1977

-17

05/1979

12/1978

-5

08/1980

08/1981

12

02/1989

12/1988

-2

05/1990

04/1990

-1

11/1991

12/1991

1

05/1992

08/1993

15

11/1994

extra

07/1995

extra

08/1996

01/1996

-7

Troughs

Peaks

Overall

Average

2

-2

0

Median

5.5

-2.0

-1.0

Percent Lead

50

60

56

Std. Deviation

14.6

3.6

9.6

Table 10

Turning Points of Growth Rate of Leading Index of Exports vis-à-vis Growth Rate of Quantum Index of Exports

Quantum Index of Exports, Growth Rate

Leading Index of Exports, Growth Rate

Lead(-)

OR

Lag (+)

Troughs

Peaks

Troughs

Peaks

Troughs

Peaks

05/1977

02/1977

-3

05/1979

04/1978

-13

05/1980

04/1980

-1

01/1983

extra

08/1985

extra

08/1987

04/1986

-16

05/1988

09/1987

-8

02/1989

11/1988

-3

05/1990

04/1990

-1

11/1991

07/1991

-4

05/1992

11/1992

6

05/1994

extra

07/1995

extra

08/1996

01/1996

-7

Troughs

Peaks

Overall

Average

-1

-9

-5

Median

-1.0

-7.0

-3.5

Percent Lead

80

100

90

Std. Deviation

5.0

5.7

6.3

Table 11

Turning Points of Level of Leading Index of Exports vis-à-vis Level of Unit Value Index of Exports

Unit Value Index of Exports, Level

Leading Index of Exports, Level

Lead(-)

OR

Lag(+)

Troughs