Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the January 2022 round of the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1. The survey was conducted during January 2 to 12, 2022 in 18 major cities. The results2 are based on responses from 5,985 urban households3.
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended | Jan-21 | Jul-21 | Sep-21 | Nov-21 | Jan-22 |
General | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
Prices will increase | 83.7 | 0.89 | 85.9 | 0.79 | 84.9 | 0.77 | 89.3 | 0.64 | 85.6 | 0.69 |
Price increase more than current rate | 56.0 | 1.26 | 63.0 | 1.15 | 61.5 | 1.14 | 67.0 | 1.17 | 61.5 | 1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 22.4 | 0.95 | 19.6 | 0.90 | 19.9 | 0.88 | 19.1 | 0.94 | 20.4 | 0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate | 5.3 | 0.53 | 3.3 | 0.38 | 3.5 | 0.40 | 3.3 | 0.42 | 3.7 | 0.40 |
No changes in prices | 14.3 | 0.86 | 11.3 | 0.70 | 12.9 | 0.72 | 8.2 | 0.55 | 12.0 | 0.64 |
Decline in prices | 1.9 | 0.30 | 2.8 | 0.40 | 2.2 | 0.29 | 2.5 | 0.30 | 2.4 | 0.30 |
Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 80.9 | 0.95 | 84.0 | 0.81 | 84.8 | 0.74 | 86.0 | 0.70 | 83.7 | 0.71 |
Price increase more than current rate | 54.2 | 1.16 | 61.0 | 1.15 | 61.4 | 1.08 | 63.7 | 1.17 | 61.0 | 1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 20.0 | 0.95 | 17.6 | 0.89 | 18.2 | 0.80 | 17.0 | 0.82 | 17.0 | 0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate | 6.7 | 0.57 | 5.4 | 0.53 | 5.3 | 0.50 | 5.2 | 0.46 | 5.7 | 0.47 |
No changes in prices | 13.0 | 0.82 | 10.5 | 0.65 | 10.8 | 0.64 | 8.2 | 0.52 | 10.5 | 0.58 |
Decline in prices | 6.1 | 0.54 | 5.5 | 0.53 | 4.4 | 0.40 | 5.8 | 0.46 | 5.7 | 0.45 |
Non- Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 79.3 | 0.98 | 82.6 | 0.85 | 82.1 | 0.82 | 86.3 | 0.67 | 80.5 | 0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate | 51.6 | 1.20 | 59.0 | 1.17 | 58.8 | 1.15 | 62.7 | 1.17 | 55.5 | 1.02 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 20.9 | 0.90 | 18.8 | 0.92 | 18.2 | 0.83 | 18.7 | 0.86 | 19.3 | 0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate | 6.7 | 0.56 | 4.7 | 0.50 | 5.1 | 0.45 | 4.9 | 0.48 | 5.6 | 0.46 |
No changes in prices | 16.9 | 0.91 | 12.3 | 0.73 | 13.6 | 0.73 | 8.9 | 0.54 | 14.1 | 0.65 |
Decline in prices | 3.8 | 0.40 | 5.1 | 0.51 | 4.3 | 0.42 | 4.7 | 0.43 | 5.4 | 0.43 |
Household Durables | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 64.3 | 1.11 | 65.6 | 1.10 | 67.3 | 0.97 | 68.6 | 0.90 | 69.9 | 0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate | 42.5 | 1.15 | 45.1 | 1.19 | 46.5 | 1.09 | 47.8 | 1.11 | 48.7 | 1.03 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 16.8 | 0.77 | 16.6 | 0.86 | 16.2 | 0.78 | 15.9 | 0.77 | 16.2 | 0.70 |
Price increase less than current rate | 5.0 | 0.49 | 4.0 | 0.43 | 4.6 | 0.43 | 4.9 | 0.44 | 5.1 | 0.45 |
No changes in prices | 27.2 | 1.05 | 25.3 | 0.99 | 25.0 | 0.87 | 22.7 | 0.82 | 23.1 | 0.83 |
Decline in prices | 8.4 | 0.58 | 9.1 | 0.66 | 7.7 | 0.53 | 8.7 | 0.54 | 6.9 | 0.45 |
Cost of Housing | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 66.1 | 1.11 | 64.7 | 1.13 | 68.7 | 0.95 | 74.3 | 0.94 | 71.6 | 0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate | 45.1 | 1.20 | 45.9 | 1.21 | 49.6 | 1.07 | 55.1 | 1.16 | 51.3 | 1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 16.2 | 0.79 | 14.5 | 0.79 | 15.1 | 0.77 | 15.5 | 0.78 | 16.0 | 0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.8 | 0.49 | 4.2 | 0.46 | 4.0 | 0.42 | 3.7 | 0.39 | 4.2 | 0.42 |
No changes in prices | 24.6 | 1.02 | 23.7 | 0.99 | 21.9 | 0.85 | 19.0 | 0.82 | 21.3 | 0.81 |
Decline in prices | 9.3 | 0.66 | 11.6 | 0.74 | 9.4 | 0.59 | 6.7 | 0.51 | 7.1 | 0.48 |
Cost of Services | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 68.8 | 1.06 | 74.3 | 1.02 | 73.3 | 0.93 | 76.5 | 0.87 | 74.3 | 0.84 |
Price increase more than current rate | 45.7 | 1.15 | 52.5 | 1.19 | 52.1 | 1.10 | 53.9 | 1.20 | 51.7 | 1.06 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 18.5 | 0.81 | 17.3 | 0.83 | 16.8 | 0.75 | 17.6 | 0.80 | 18.0 | 0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.6 | 0.50 | 4.5 | 0.45 | 4.4 | 0.41 | 5.0 | 0.49 | 4.7 | 0.43 |
No changes in prices | 27.4 | 1.02 | 22.0 | 0.95 | 23.7 | 0.90 | 20.2 | 0.81 | 22.4 | 0.79 |
Decline in prices | 3.8 | 0.47 | 3.7 | 0.43 | 3.0 | 0.33 | 3.2 | 0.34 | 3.3 | 0.34 |
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended | Jan-21 | Jul-21 | Sep-21 | Nov-21 | Jan-22 |
General | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
Prices will increase | 88.0 | 0.80 | 86.8 | 0.78 | 87.7 | 0.72 | 90.5 | 0.59 | 89.6 | 0.59 |
Price increase more than current rate | 62.9 | 1.23 | 65.6 | 1.18 | 66.5 | 1.10 | 70.6 | 1.16 | 68.4 | 1.05 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 21.2 | 0.95 | 18.3 | 0.93 | 18.0 | 0.85 | 16.6 | 0.92 | 18.0 | 0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate | 3.9 | 0.43 | 2.9 | 0.38 | 3.3 | 0.36 | 3.3 | 0.39 | 3.3 | 0.39 |
No changes in prices | 9.6 | 0.75 | 10.1 | 0.68 | 9.3 | 0.61 | 6.4 | 0.46 | 7.8 | 0.50 |
Decline in prices | 2.4 | 0.33 | 3.1 | 0.41 | 2.9 | 0.36 | 3.1 | 0.35 | 2.6 | 0.29 |
Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 80.5 | 0.96 | 80.8 | 0.87 | 81.6 | 0.79 | 84.5 | 0.74 | 83.8 | 0.72 |
Price increase more than current rate | 53.0 | 1.21 | 55.9 | 1.18 | 57.4 | 1.12 | 60.3 | 1.21 | 58.3 | 1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 22.6 | 0.96 | 20.7 | 0.98 | 19.5 | 0.89 | 19.9 | 0.92 | 20.3 | 0.86 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.9 | 0.49 | 4.2 | 0.45 | 4.7 | 0.45 | 4.4 | 0.42 | 5.2 | 0.45 |
No changes in prices | 13.4 | 0.84 | 12.6 | 0.73 | 11.9 | 0.66 | 9.5 | 0.58 | 11.0 | 0.61 |
Decline in prices | 6.1 | 0.55 | 6.6 | 0.54 | 6.5 | 0.47 | 6.0 | 0.47 | 5.2 | 0.40 |
Non- Food Product | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 80.4 | 0.93 | 80.3 | 0.91 | 81.5 | 0.81 | 85.1 | 0.72 | 83.0 | 0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate | 52.8 | 1.22 | 56.8 | 1.21 | 57.9 | 1.13 | 61.8 | 1.20 | 57.6 | 1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 22.7 | 0.93 | 19.0 | 0.91 | 19.5 | 0.85 | 18.9 | 0.87 | 20.5 | 0.86 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.9 | 0.45 | 4.6 | 0.48 | 4.1 | 0.40 | 4.4 | 0.46 | 5.0 | 0.44 |
No changes in prices | 15.0 | 0.84 | 13.4 | 0.76 | 13.2 | 0.71 | 9.6 | 0.57 | 12.1 | 0.61 |
Decline in prices | 4.6 | 0.46 | 6.2 | 0.57 | 5.3 | 0.42 | 5.4 | 0.44 | 4.9 | 0.41 |
Household Durables | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 69.8 | 1.07 | 69.1 | 1.06 | 71.5 | 0.98 | 75.0 | 0.88 | 75.4 | 0.87 |
Price increase more than current rate | 45.0 | 1.20 | 47.0 | 1.18 | 49.4 | 1.10 | 52.4 | 1.17 | 52.2 | 1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 19.9 | 0.81 | 18.3 | 0.88 | 17.5 | 0.83 | 18.1 | 0.86 | 18.6 | 0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.9 | 0.48 | 3.8 | 0.41 | 4.5 | 0.45 | 4.5 | 0.45 | 4.6 | 0.45 |
No changes in prices | 22.1 | 0.97 | 22.7 | 0.97 | 22.3 | 0.89 | 18.0 | 0.75 | 18.6 | 0.78 |
Decline in prices | 8.1 | 0.63 | 8.2 | 0.62 | 6.2 | 0.47 | 6.9 | 0.48 | 6.0 | 0.44 |
Cost of Housing | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 74.8 | 1.05 | 71.8 | 1.08 | 76.5 | 0.87 | 82.4 | 0.78 | 79.4 | 0.79 |
Price increase more than current rate | 49.9 | 1.22 | 50.9 | 1.21 | 55.2 | 1.09 | 60.6 | 1.16 | 57.1 | 1.03 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 20.2 | 0.91 | 16.6 | 0.87 | 16.8 | 0.81 | 17.8 | 0.86 | 18.0 | 0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.7 | 0.48 | 4.2 | 0.44 | 4.5 | 0.43 | 3.9 | 0.40 | 4.3 | 0.43 |
No changes in prices | 17.7 | 0.95 | 19.8 | 0.92 | 17.3 | 0.78 | 12.8 | 0.67 | 15.1 | 0.67 |
Decline in prices | 7.5 | 0.61 | 8.4 | 0.68 | 6.2 | 0.47 | 4.8 | 0.41 | 5.6 | 0.44 |
Cost of Services | | | | | | | | | | |
Prices will increase | 78.5 | 0.98 | 80.9 | 0.88 | 79.8 | 0.85 | 83.6 | 0.73 | 82.0 | 0.75 |
Price increase more than current rate | 51.1 | 1.21 | 55.9 | 1.17 | 56.7 | 1.14 | 59.6 | 1.21 | 57.6 | 1.05 |
Price increase similar to current rate | 22.9 | 0.96 | 20.5 | 0.91 | 18.8 | 0.85 | 19.0 | 0.89 | 19.7 | 0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate | 4.6 | 0.45 | 4.5 | 0.47 | 4.3 | 0.43 | 5.0 | 0.47 | 4.6 | 0.44 |
No changes in prices | 18.2 | 0.94 | 15.7 | 0.80 | 16.6 | 0.77 | 13.4 | 0.66 | 15.1 | 0.68 |
Decline in prices | 3.3 | 0.41 | 3.4 | 0.42 | 3.6 | 0.38 | 3.1 | 0.34 | 2.9 | 0.31 |
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |