Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the November 2020 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the survey was conducted through field interviews, wherever possible, and telephonic interviews elsewhere, during October 30 – November 12, 2020 in thirteen major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. Perceptions and expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending have been obtained from 5,319 households across these cities2. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence remained very low in November 2020 when compared to a year ago, as reflected in the current situation index (CSI)3, though it showed a marginal improvement over the all-time low recorded in the previous round (Chart 1). II. Weak confidence is attributable to the consumer sentiments on general economic situation, employment scenario, price levels and household incomes (Tables 1, 2, 3 and 5). III. Households remain optimistic about the one year ahead situation, with the future expectations index (FEI) remaining in growth terrain at 115.9. Note: Please see the excel file for time series data IV. Respondents reported higher essential and overall spending, though discretionary expenditure contracted; non-essential spending is expected to contract further in the coming year (Table 6, 7 and 8).
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 30.0 | 18.4 | 51.6 | -21.6 | 48.9 | 16.5 | 34.7 | 14.2 | | Jan-20 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 54.9 | -27.8 | 48.8 | 14.3 | 36.9 | 11.9 | | Mar-20 | 28.4 | 19.3 | 52.3 | -23.9 | 49.8 | 15.6 | 34.7 | 15.1 | | May-20 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 74.4 | -60.0 | 39.6 | 9.0 | 51.4 | -11.7 | | Jul-20 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 77.8 | -65.9 | 44.3 | 13.5 | 42.2 | 2.1 | | Sep-20 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 79.6 | -70.6 | 50.1 | 15.1 | 34.8 | 15.3 | | Nov-20 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 77.5 | -66.5 | 50.9 | 13.9 | 35.2 | 15.7 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 24.4 | 18.1 | 57.5 | -33.1 | 46.3 | 17.7 | 36.0 | 10.3 | | Jan-20 | 24.6 | 17.8 | 57.7 | -33.1 | 48.4 | 16.3 | 35.4 | 13.0 | | Mar-20 | 25.2 | 19.1 | 55.7 | -30.5 | 48.8 | 17.1 | 34.1 | 14.7 | | May-20 | 19.2 | 13.4 | 67.4 | -48.2 | 41.5 | 11.1 | 47.4 | -5.9 | | Jul-20 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 78.1 | -65.1 | 48.6 | 13.3 | 38.2 | 10.4 | | Sep-20 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 81.7 | -71.6 | 54.1 | 14.3 | 31.6 | 22.5 | | Nov-20 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 79.5 | -68.5 | 52.0 | 14.9 | 33.1 | 18.9 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 86.8 | 10.2 | 2.9 | -83.9 | 78.0 | 14.1 | 7.9 | -70.1 | | Jan-20 | 90.6 | 7.6 | 1.9 | -88.7 | 76.9 | 12.9 | 10.2 | -66.7 | | Mar-20 | 87.2 | 10.3 | 2.6 | -84.6 | 78.1 | 14.2 | 7.7 | -70.4 | | May-20 | 79.1 | 17.5 | 3.4 | -75.8 | 75.8 | 14.8 | 9.4 | -66.4 | | Jul-20 | 79.7 | 16.7 | 3.6 | -76.2 | 71.6 | 18.3 | 10.1 | -61.5 | | Sep-20 | 82.9 | 14.6 | 2.5 | -80.4 | 69.5 | 20.5 | 10.0 | -59.5 | | Nov-20 | 89.7 | 9.0 | 1.4 | -88.3 | 70.5 | 17.4 | 12.1 | -58.4 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 77.2 | 17.4 | 5.5 | -71.7 | 77.3 | 17.3 | 5.4 | -71.9 | | Jan-20 | 84.9 | 11.2 | 4.0 | -80.9 | 80.3 | 14.7 | 5.0 | -75.3 | | Mar-20 | 80.8 | 15.7 | 3.5 | -77.3 | 75.6 | 20.3 | 4.1 | -71.5 | | May-20 | 74.8 | 18.6 | 6.6 | -68.2 | 73.4 | 19.5 | 7.1 | -66.3 | | Jul-20 | 79.8 | 15.6 | 4.5 | -75.3 | 76.4 | 18.6 | 5.0 | -71.4 | | Sep-20 | 83.0 | 13.1 | 3.9 | -79.1 | 75.9 | 19.6 | 4.6 | -71.3 | | Nov-20 | 88.3 | 8.9 | 2.8 | -85.5 | 78.3 | 16.7 | 4.9 | -73.4 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 24.1 | 49.2 | 26.7 | -2.6 | 52.8 | 38.9 | 8.3 | 44.5 | | Jan-20 | 21.9 | 51.2 | 26.9 | -5.0 | 51.9 | 38.9 | 9.2 | 42.7 | | Mar-20 | 22.7 | 52.4 | 24.9 | -2.2 | 52.0 | 40.2 | 7.8 | 44.2 | | May-20 | 12.6 | 34.0 | 53.4 | -40.8 | 39.5 | 39.1 | 21.4 | 18.1 | | Jul-20 | 8.3 | 28.9 | 62.8 | -54.5 | 43.5 | 39.3 | 17.2 | 26.3 | | Sep-20 | 8.9 | 28.4 | 62.7 | -53.8 | 53.2 | 36.7 | 10.0 | 43.2 | | Nov-20 | 8.4 | 28.5 | 63.1 | -54.7 | 51.0 | 38.3 | 10.7 | 40.3 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 73.2 | 23.4 | 3.4 | 69.8 | 77.4 | 19.0 | 3.6 | 73.8 | | Jan-20 | 76.3 | 20.5 | 3.2 | 73.1 | 78.7 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 74.7 | | Mar-20 | 72.6 | 24.0 | 3.4 | 69.2 | 75.8 | 20.7 | 3.5 | 72.3 | | May-20 | 56.1 | 31.0 | 12.9 | 43.2 | 64.3 | 27.0 | 8.7 | 55.6 | | Jul-20 | 48.1 | 34.7 | 17.2 | 30.8 | 60.2 | 29.2 | 10.6 | 49.6 | | Sep-20 | 47.2 | 31.8 | 21.1 | 26.1 | 65.3 | 27.5 | 7.2 | 58.1 | | Nov-20 | 55.6 | 28.5 | 15.9 | 39.7 | 69.1 | 24.9 | 6.1 | 63.0 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 83.6 | 13.6 | 2.7 | 80.9 | 83.0 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 79.9 | | Jan-20 | 85.3 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 82.7 | 83.7 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 80.3 | | Mar-20 | 83.0 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 80.6 | 82.1 | 15.0 | 2.9 | 79.2 | | May-20 | 69.3 | 20.9 | 9.8 | 59.5 | 73.0 | 20.6 | 6.4 | 66.7 | | Jul-20 | 64.0 | 23.9 | 12.1 | 51.9 | 69.4 | 22.9 | 7.7 | 61.7 | | Sep-20 | 61.4 | 23.9 | 14.7 | 46.7 | 71.9 | 22.8 | 5.3 | 66.6 | | Nov-20 | 68.7 | 20.0 | 11.3 | 57.4 | 75.6 | 19.2 | 5.2 | 70.4 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-19 | 27.5 | 42.4 | 30.1 | -2.6 | 33.4 | 43.0 | 23.5 | 9.9 | | Jan-20 | 28.0 | 37.3 | 34.6 | -6.6 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 27.9 | 6.4 | | Mar-20 | 27.7 | 42.0 | 30.3 | -2.6 | 32.4 | 43.5 | 24.1 | 8.3 | | May-20 | 13.9 | 39.6 | 46.4 | -32.5 | 22.0 | 42.4 | 35.6 | -13.6 | | Jul-20 | 9.2 | 29.4 | 61.4 | -52.2 | 22.2 | 37.9 | 39.9 | -17.7 | | Sep-20 | 10.7 | 29.5 | 59.8 | -49.1 | 31.3 | 37.4 | 31.4 | -0.1 | | Nov-20 | 11.2 | 27.9 | 60.9 | -49.7 | 28.7 | 37.3 | 34.0 | -5.3 |
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