The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. The responses for the 66th round of the survey were received during September 15-30, 20202, wherein thirty three panellists participated. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts (Annex 1-7), along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output -
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 9.1 per cent in 2020-21 but it is expected to recover next year, when it is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent (Table 1). -
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is assessed to contract by 11.0 per cent during 2020-21, followed by an expansion of 8.5 per cent in the next year. -
Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to record a large decline of 21.0 per cent in 2020-21; it is expected to grow by 10.0 per cent in 2021-22. -
Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth lying below (-)9.0 per cent in 2020-21 (Chart 1). For 2021-22, highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth lying in the wide range of 7.0-8.4 per cent (Chart 2). -
Despite expansion in agricultural activities, real gross value added (GVA) is expected to decline by 8.4 per cent in 2020-21; it is likely to record 8.2 per cent growth next year, supported by improvements in industrial and services activities. | Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components | | (in per cent) | | | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | | Real GDP growth rate | -9.1
(-3.3) | 8.2
(+0.8) | | a. Real PFCE growth rate | -11.0
(-5.0) | 8.5
(+0.5) | | b. Real GFCF growth rate | -21.0
(-11.2) | 10.0
(+3.2) | | Nominal PFCE growth rate | -6.9
(-4.4) | 11.4
(+0.6) | | Real GVA Growth | -8.4
(-2.6) | 8.2
(+1.2) | | a. Agriculture and Allied Activities | 3.7
(+0.3) | 3.2
(-0.3) | | b. Industry | -13.0
(-3.3) | 9.7
(+2.6) | | c. Services | -9.7
(-3.6) | 9.1
(+0.9) | Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national disposable income] (GNDI)] | 26.0
(-2.0) | 27.0
(-1.1) | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate
[per cent of GDP at current market prices] | 25.4
(-2.5) | 27.7
(-0.7) | | Note: In all the tables, the figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round. |
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6. Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6. Inflation | Table 2: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation | | (in per cent) | | | Q2:2020-21 | Q3:2020-21 | Q4:2020-21 | Q1:2021-22 | Q2:2021-22 | | CPI Combined (General) | 6.6
(+1.4) | 4.9
(+1.6) | 4.2
(+1.2) | 3.9
(+0.6) | 3.8 | | CPI Combined excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light | 5.5
(+0.8) | 5.6
(+1.0) | 5.2
(+1.0) | 4.7
(+1.0) | 4.2 | | WPI All Commodities | 0.0
(+0.6) | 0.1
(+1.3) | 0.3
(+1.0) | 2.5
(0.0) | 2.1 | | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | 0.4
(+0.3) | 1.3
(+0.4) | 1.2
(+0.6) | 2.0
(0.0) | 1.9 | - Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to CPI inflation lying in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent in Q2:2020-21; 4.5-4.9 per cent in Q3:2020-21; 4.0-4.4 per cent in Q4:2020-21; and 3.5-4.4 per cent in Q1:2021-22 (Chart 3).
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7. 2. External Sector -
Merchandise exports and imports are projected to decline by 14.7 per cent and 22.7 per cent, respectively, during 2020-21 before reverting to growth terrain in 2021-22 (Table 3). -
Current account is expected to record a surplus at 0.5 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) in 2020-21 before reverting to deficit at 0.6 per cent in 2021-22. -
The Indian rupee is likely to remain range bound within ₹73.00 - ₹73.70 per US dollar till Q2:2021-22 (Annex 3). | Table 3: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables | | | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | Merchandise Exports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) | -14.7
(-0.1) | 10.2
(+0.2) | Merchandise Imports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) | -22.7
(-2.6) | 20.6
(+4.1) | Current Account Balance
(per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 0.5
(+0.1) | -0.6
(0.0) |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF): Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited); CRISIL Ltd.; DBS Bank; Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Limited); Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings and Research); Gaurav Kapur (IndusInd Bank Limited); Indranil Pan (IDFC FIRST Bank); Karan Mehrishi (Acuité Ratings & Research Limited); Nikhil Gupta (Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd); Rahul Bajoria (Barclays Bank PLC); Rini Sen (ANZ Research); Rupa Rege Nitsure (L&T Finance Holdings); Sameer Narang (Bank of Baroda); Shailesh Kejariwal (B&K Securities India Pvt Ltd); Siddharth Kothari (Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd); TAC Economics; Tirthankar Patnaik (National Stock Exchange); Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank) and YES Bank. The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen others SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
| Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -9.1 | -9.1 | -3.0 | -14.9 | -10.5 | -8.0 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -10.7 | -11.0 | -5.0 | -20.0 | -12.3 | -8.6 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -20.3 | -21.0 | 0.1 | -33.2 | -26.7 | -16.7 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -7.2 | -6.9 | -2.8 | -16.8 | -8.9 | -4.4 | | 3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 25.0 | 25.4 | 28.0 | 20.8 | 23.9 | 26.4 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -8.7 | -8.4 | -3.2 | -14.0 | -10.1 | -7.7 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -13.2 | -13.0 | -5.0 | -20.7 | -15.9 | -11.0 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -9.5 | -9.7 | -3.9 | -15.3 | -11.6 | -7.8 | | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 26.8 | 26.0 | 30.1 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 28.0 | | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 7.6 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 8.0 | | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 12.1 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 6.7 | 12.0 | 12.5 | | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.5 | -4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | -14.8 | -14.7 | -6.1 | -31.0 | -16.5 | -12.3 | | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | -23.6 | -22.7 | -17.7 | -33.0 | -26.1 | -20.7 | | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | 9.0 | 10.1 | 53.5 | -91.2 | 1.0 | 22.5 | | 14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | | 15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 71.5 | 71.3 | 110.2 | 19.0 | 61.5 | 83.3 | | 16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 | | 17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 5.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2.0 | -2.2 | -0.5 | 0.5 | | 19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.3 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 9.7 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.5 | 8.5 | 15.8 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 11.4 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.6 | 10.0 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 10.5 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.3 | 11.4 | 17.0 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 14.4 | | 3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 27.7 | 27.7 | 32.0 | 22.2 | 26.6 | 29.6 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.0 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 8.9 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.4 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 16.0 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 11.7 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 9.0 | 9.8 | | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 27.5 | 27.0 | 31.6 | 24.0 | 25.6 | 29.3 | | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 5.6 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 6.4 | | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 10.0 | | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.9 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 10.0 | | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 11.1 | 10.2 | 25.0 | -2.9 | 9.5 | 14.3 | | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 20.4 | 20.6 | 41.0 | -5.3 | 13.2 | 26.8 | | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -23.3 | -19.8 | -5.9 | -65.4 | -25.9 | -16.2 | | 14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -1.2 | -0.6 | 0.7 | -7.6 | -0.9 | -0.3 | | 15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 51.7 | 50.0 | 82.6 | 22.6 | 42.7 | 60.0 | | 16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | | 17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.8 | | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | | 19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 1.8 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q2:2020-21 to Q2:2021-22 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | | Q2: 2020-21 | Q3: 2020-21 | Q4: 2020-21 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -10.1 | -10.0 | 0.6 | -16.2 | -3.1 | -3.2 | 6.0 | -11.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 7.5 | -8.9 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -12.1 | -12.9 | 1.5 | -19.3 | -4.6 | -5.2 | 4.0 | -12.6 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 6.0 | -8.8 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -23.5 | -25.0 | -2.6 | -37.4 | -11.9 | -10.0 | 9.6 | -27.9 | -4.4 | -4.4 | 14.1 | -20.1 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -8.6 | -9.5 | 2.5 | -18.6 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 6.6 | -13.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 10.5 | -11.2 | | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 23.5 | 23.3 | 29.0 | 20.2 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 29.0 | 21.5 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 29.0 | 21.8 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -9.7 | -9.6 | 0.4 | -15.4 | -2.9 | -3.0 | 6.0 | -10.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 6.5 | -7.6 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.7 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -0.8 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -14.4 | -15.1 | 0.3 | -25.1 | -6.4 | -6.6 | 3.0 | -15.7 | -1.5 | -0.8 | 7.6 | -13.4 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -10.7 | -11.3 | 0.1 | -16.6 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 6.0 | -12.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 6.0 | -9.5 | | 5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | -8.3 | -7.5 | 0.5 | -20.5 | -2.0 | -3.5 | 9.8 | -10.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 24.2 | -6.4 | | 6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 65.7 | 68.4 | 72.0 | 51.3 | 73.1 | 72.6 | 78.1 | 65.4 | 77.1 | 77.4 | 86.6 | 68.9 | | 7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 82.5 | 87.8 | 95.9 | 60.4 | 96.9 | 95.7 | 109.2 | 82.5 | 104.2 | 104.9 | 118.4 | 92.5 | | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | 73.7 | 73.5 | 75.5 | 72.0 | 73.6 | 73.7 | 75.0 | 71.0 | 73.6 | 73.5 | 76.0 | 70.5 | | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 41.3 | 42.5 | 45.0 | 28.0 | 44.0 | 45.0 | 48.0 | 35.0 | 45.4 | 45.0 | 53.0 | 39.0 | | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | 3.94 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.91 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.75 | 3.83 | 4.00 | 4.40 | 2.75 |
| | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | | Q1: 2021-22 | Q2: 2021-22 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 18.8 | 17.8 | 33.0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 18.7 | 5.0 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 21.1 | 20.8 | 37.5 | 4.1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 22.7 | 4.5 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 26.4 | 28.3 | 50.5 | 7.8 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 30.0 | 5.0 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 21.3 | 19.4 | 36.5 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 23.7 | 8.1 | | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 23.8 | 22.8 | 32.0 | 19.4 | 25.6 | 24.5 | 32.0 | 21.3 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 17.2 | 15.8 | 28.0 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 18.3 | 6.2 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.8 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 24.4 | 22.6 | 53.7 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 18.0 | 5.7 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 17.0 | 17.9 | 27.0 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 15.0 | 6.8 | | 5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 26.3 | 26.8 | 52.7 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 25.0 | 1.5 | | 6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 75.7 | 76.0 | 89.0 | 66.5 | 77.7 | 76.0 | 98.0 | 71.3 | | 7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 103.4 | 102.1 | 121.2 | 92.6 | 107.5 | 107.0 | 123.6 | 99.0 | | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | 73.6 | 73.0 | 76.5 | 70.0 | 73.2 | 73.0 | 76.5 | 69.5 | | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 48.1 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 40.2 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 41.4 | | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | 3.76 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 3.89 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 3.50 |
| Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation | | (per cent) | | | CPI Combined (General) | CPI Combined excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | Q2:2020-21 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.2 | | Q3:2020-21 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.7 | | Q4:2020-21 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.0 | | Q1:2021-22 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | | Q2:2021-22 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation | | (per cent) | | | WPI All Commodities | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | Q2:2020-21 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -1.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | -2.7 | | Q3:2020-21 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.6 | -2.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 0.3 | | Q4:2020-21 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 5.2 | -2.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.6 | -0.1 | | Q1:2021-22 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | | Q2:2021-22 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth | | Growth Range | Forecasts for 2020-21 | Forecasts for 2021-22 | | 10.0 per cent or more | 0 | 0.09 | | 9.5 to 9.9 per cent | 0 | 0.14 | | 9.0 to 9.4 per cent | 0 | 0.07 | | 8.5 to 8.9 per cent | 0 | 0.11 | | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0 | 0.16 | | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0 | 0.14 | | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0 | 0.16 | | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0 | 0.04 | | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0 | 0.03 | | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0 | 0.01 | | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0 | 0.02 | | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0 | 0.02 | | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0 | 0.02 | | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 0.0 to 0.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -1.5 to -1.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -2.0 to -1.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -2.5 to -2.1 per cent | 0.01 | 0 | | -3.0 to -2.6 per cent | 0.02 | 0 | | -3.5 to -3.1 per cent | 0.00 | 0 | | -4.0 to -3.6 per cent | 0.00 | 0 | | -4.5 to -4.1 per cent | 0.00 | 0 | | -5.0 to -4.6 per cent | 0.00 | 0 | | -5.5 to -5.1 per cent | 0.03 | 0 | | -6.0 to -5.6 per cent | 0.02 | 0 | | -6.5 to -6.1 per cent | 0.07 | 0 | | -7.0 to -6.6 per cent | 0.03 | 0 | | -7.5 to -7.1 per cent | 0.04 | 0 | | -8.0 to -7.6 per cent | 0.04 | 0 | | -8.5 to -8.1 per cent | 0.12 | 0 | | -9.0 to -8.6 per cent | 0.17 | 0 | | below -9.0 per cent | 0.43 | 0 | | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. |
| Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation | | Inflation Range | Forecasts for Q2:2020-21 | Forecasts for Q3:2020-21 | Forecasts for Q4:2020-21 | Forecasts for Q1:2021-22 | | 9.0 per cent or above | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 8.5 to 9.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0.63 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 | | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 | | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.02 | | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.13 | | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.15 | | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.19 | | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.19 | | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.17 | | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 to 0.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Below -1.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off.
Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index. |
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