publications

PDF document (221 kb)
Date : Jun 04, 2020
Consumer Confidence Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the May 2020 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the survey was conducted through telephonic interviews during May 5-17, 2020 in thirteen major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. Perceptions and expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending have been obtained from 5,300 households across these cities.

Highlights:

I. Consumer confidence collapsed in May 2020, with the current situation index (CSI) touching historic low and the one year ahead future expectations index (FEI)2 also recording a sharp fall, entering the zone of pessimism (Chart 1).

Chart_1

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data

II. Consumer perception on the general economic situation, employment scenario and household income plunged deeper into contraction zone (Tables 1, 2 and 5); while expectation on general economic situation and employment scenario for the year ahead were also pessimistic.

III. Overall consumer spending remained afloat, mostly due to relative inelasticity in essential spending (Table 6 and 7); consumers, however, reported sharp cuts in discretionary spending and also do not expect much improvement in the coming year (Table 8).


Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Improved Remained Same Worsened Net Response Will Improve Will Remain Same Will Worsen Net Response
May-19 38.8 23.6 37.7 1.1 61.4 17.7 20.9 40.5
Jul-19 37.4 24.2 38.4 -1.0 59.4 16.0 24.6 34.8
Sep-19 33.5 18.6 47.9 -14.4 53.2 15.0 31.8 21.4
Nov-19 30.0 18.4 51.6 -21.6 48.9 16.5 34.7 14.2
Jan-20 27.1 18.0 54.9 -27.8 48.8 14.3 36.9 11.9
Mar-20 28.4 19.3 52.3 -23.9 49.8 15.6 34.7 15.1
May-20 14.4 11.2 74.4 -60.0 39.6 9.0 51.4 -11.7

Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Improved Remained Same Worsened Net Response Will Improve Will Remain Same Will Worsen Net Response
May-19 33.7 22.1 44.2 -10.5 59.3 17.6 23.1 36.2
Jul-19 32.5 21.9 45.6 -13.1 56.7 17.5 25.8 30.9
Sep-19 28.0 19.5 52.5 -24.5 51.2 15.4 33.4 17.8
Nov-19 24.4 18.1 57.5 -33.1 46.3 17.7 36.0 10.3
Jan-20 24.6 17.8 57.7 -33.1 48.4 16.3 35.4 13.0
Mar-20 25.2 19.1 55.7 -30.5 48.8 17.1 34.1 14.7
May-20 19.2 13.4 67.4 -48.2 41.5 11.1 47.4 -5.9

Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
May-19 81.6 14.1 4.3 -77.3 70.3 18.7 11.0 -59.3
Jul-19 81.7 15.0 3.3 -78.4 73.9 16.1 10.0 -63.9
Sep-19 86.1 10.6 3.3 -82.8 75.9 13.8 10.3 -65.6
Nov-19 86.8 10.2 2.9 -83.9 78.0 14.1 7.9 -70.1
Jan-20 90.6 7.6 1.9 -88.7 76.9 12.9 10.2 -66.7
Mar-20 87.2 10.3 2.6 -84.6 78.1 14.2 7.7 -70.4
May-20 79.1 17.5 3.4 -75.8 75.8 14.8 9.4 -66.4

Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)*
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
May-19 74.4 20.8 4.8 -69.6 76.7 18.5 4.8 -71.9
Jul-19 72.5 22.3 5.2 -67.3 77.8 18.0 4.1 -73.7
Sep-19 74.2 19.5 6.3 -67.9 77.9 16.1 6.1 -71.8
Nov-19 77.2 17.4 5.5 -71.7 77.3 17.3 5.4 -71.9
Jan-20 84.9 11.2 4.0 -80.9 80.3 14.7 5.0 -75.3
Mar-20 80.8 15.7 3.5 -77.3 75.6 20.3 4.1 -71.5
May-20 74.8 18.6 6.6 -68.2 73.4 19.5 7.1 -66.3
*Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase.

Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
May-19 29.0 50.2 20.8 8.2 58.9 35.1 6.0 52.9
Jul-19 25.8 51.3 22.9 2.9 55.4 37.7 6.9 48.5
Sep-19 25.0 48.3 26.7 -1.7 53.0 37.4 9.6 43.4
Nov-19 24.1 49.2 26.7 -2.6 52.8 38.9 8.3 44.5
Jan-20 21.9 51.2 26.9 -5.0 51.9 38.9 9.2 42.7
Mar-20 22.7 52.4 24.9 -2.2 52.0 40.2 7.8 44.2
May-20 12.6 34.0 53.4 -40.8 39.5 39.1 21.4 18.1

Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
May-19 68.6 28.0 3.4 65.2 74.7 22.5 2.9 71.8
Jul-19 71.7 25.0 3.4 68.3 76.8 20.1 3.2 73.6
Sep-19 74.1 22.0 3.8 70.3 77.0 19.0 4.0 73.0
Nov-19 73.2 23.4 3.4 69.8 77.4 19.0 3.6 73.8
Jan-20 76.3 20.5 3.2 73.1 78.7 17.3 4.0 74.7
Mar-20 72.6 24.0 3.4 69.2 75.8 20.7 3.5 72.3
May-20 56.1 31.0 12.9 43.2 64.3 27.0 8.7 55.6

Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
May-19 80.0 17.1 2.9 77.1 80.7 16.5 2.8 77.9
Jul-19 81.7 15.7 2.6 79.1 82.9 14.3 2.8 80.1
Sep-19 83.8 13.6 2.6 81.2 83.0 13.7 3.3 79.7
Nov-19 83.6 13.6 2.7 80.9 83.0 13.9 3.1 79.9
Jan-20 85.3 12.2 2.6 82.7 83.7 12.9 3.4 80.3
Mar-20 83.0 14.6 2.4 80.6 82.1 15.0 2.9 79.2
May-20 69.3 20.9 9.8 59.5 73.0 20.6 6.4 66.7

Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
May-19 32.7 40.3 27.0 5.7 39.4 37.3 23.3 16.1
Jul-19 31.0 44.9 24.1 6.9 36.2 42.2 21.6 14.6
Sep-19 29.9 40.0 30.1 -0.2 34.7 39.2 26.0 8.7
Nov-19 27.5 42.4 30.1 -2.6 33.4 43.0 23.5 9.9
Jan-20 28.0 37.3 34.6 -6.6 34.3 37.8 27.9 6.4
Mar-20 27.7 42.0 30.3 -2.6 32.4 43.5 24.1 8.3
May-20 13.9 39.6 46.4 -32.5 22.0 42.4 35.6 -13.6

1 The survey results are based on the views of respondents.

2 CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters.


Top