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Date : Oct 04, 2019
Industrial Outlook Survey of the Manufacturing Sector for Q2:2019-20

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the 87th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) conducted during July-September, 2019. The survey encapsulates qualitative assessments of the business climate by companies in India’s manufacturing sector for Q2:2019-20 and their expectations for Q3:2019-201. Responses were received from 481 companies in this round of the survey.

Highlights:

  • Respondents assessed that there was a slump in order inflows, output and employment conditions in Q2:2019-20.

  • On exports and imports, there was waning optimism in Q2:2019-20.

  • Sentiments on the overall financial situation reflected lower optimism on availability of finance from internal accruals, bank finance and overseas sources in Q2:2019-20.

  • Cost pressures emanating from interest payments on borrowings, purchase of raw materials and salary expenses were assessed to have softened in Q2:2019-20, but manufacturers were pessimistic about profit margins in view of slack demand and negative sentiments on selling prices.

  • The Business Assessment Index (BAI)2 fell sharply to 92.5 in Q2:2019-20 from 108.4 in Q1:2019-20.

CHART1
  • Respondents expressed subdued optimism in Q3:2019-20 on demand parameters such as production, order books, employment and exports.

  • Optimism on the overall financial situation moderated on account of muted sentiments on availability of finance.

  • With moderation of optimism on selling prices and marginal edging up of cost of raw materials, manufacturers expect a downturn in profit margins in Q3:2019-20.

  • The Business Expectations Index (BEI) edged down from 112.8 in Q2:2019-20 to 102.2 in Q3:2019-20.

Summary Table
Net responses3
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q1:2019-20 Q2:2019-20 Q2:2019-20 Q3:2019-20
Production 23.0 -1.9 29.1 13.9
Order Books 18.8 -2.8 20.5 13.9
Pending Orders 9.6 21.0 -6.7 14.4
Capacity Utilisation 9.4 -9.0 13.9 4.4
Exports 13.1 0.0 15.8 7.3
Imports 9.9 1.5 11.1 6.4
Employment 8.6 -0.9 10.9 0.7
Financial Situation (Overall) 21.1 -1.1 28.3 15.8
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals) 16.0 6.9 17.3 13.2
Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources) 11.9 4.3 13.0 12.7
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) 4.3 2.8 9.6 5.1
Cost of Finance -17.6 -13.1 -15.4 -10.0
Cost of Raw Materials -43.3 -35.3 -27.6 -30.8
Salary/ Other Remuneration -37.2 -36.0 -33.7 -23.2
Selling Price 6.6 -7.6 7.1 4.6
Profit Margin -8.0 -22.6 7.4 -8.5
Overall Business Situation 24.6 -0.8 35.2 21.7
Note: Please see the excel file for time series data

Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 39.2 13.1 47.7 26.0 43.0 9.8 47.2 33.2
Q3:2018-19 1,267 38.2 13.3 48.5 24.9 41.6 9.0 49.4 32.5
Q4:2018-19 1,258 40.2 14.9 44.9 25.3 43.5 7.2 49.3 36.3
Q1:2019-20 1,231 38.6 15.6 45.8 23.0 42.1 9.3 48.5 32.8
Q2:2019-20 481 26.5 28.4 45.2 -1.9 40.1 11.0 48.9 29.1
Q3:2019-20           34.8 21.0 44.2 13.9
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic.
@:Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.

Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 37.3 12.8 49.9 24.5 38.4 10.8 50.8 27.7
Q3:2018-19 1,267 35.3 15.8 48.9 19.5 38.6 9.6 51.8 28.9
Q4:2018-19 1,258 35.3 15.9 48.8 19.5 41.0 8.5 50.5 32.5
Q1:2019-20 1,231 34.1 15.4 50.5 18.8 38.5 8.6 52.8 29.9
Q2:2019-20 481 27.4 30.2 42.5 -2.8 31.6 11.1 57.3 20.5
Q3:2019-20           34.3 20.4 45.3 13.9
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 7.2 13.2 79.7 6.0 6.3 10.7 83.0 4.4
Q3:2018-19 1,267 4.7 13.2 82.1 8.6 7.4 11.0 81.6 3.6
Q4:2018-19 1,258 5.1 14.3 80.6 9.2 6.3 9.9 83.8 3.6
Q1:2019-20 1,231 6.0 15.7 78.3 9.6 6.1 10.4 83.5 4.3
Q2:2019-20 481 4.5 25.5 70.0 21.0 16.1 9.4 74.5 -6.7
Q3:2019-20           3.9 18.3 77.8 14.4
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 24.4 11.9 63.6 12.5 29.3 7.7 63.0 21.6
Q3:2018-19 1,267 24.9 12.3 62.8 12.6 28.3 7.3 64.4 21.0
Q4:2018-19 1,258 26.2 13.3 60.5 12.8 30.3 6.5 63.1 23.8
Q1:2019-20 1,231 22.8 13.4 63.8 9.4 27.2 7.7 65.1 19.6
Q2:2019-20 481 15.9 24.9 59.2 -9.0 23.1 9.2 67.7 13.9
Q3:2019-20           24.4 20.0 55.6 4.4
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 11.7 12.3 76.0 -0.6 11.8 9.3 78.9 2.5
Q3:2018-19 1,267 10.1 12.9 76.9 -2.8 12.5 9.1 78.4 3.4
Q4:2018-19 1,258 11.6 13.0 75.3 -1.4 12.7 8.6 78.7 4.1
Q1:2019-20 1,231 9.6 14.8 75.7 -5.2 12.2 8.2 79.6 4.0
Q2:2019-20 481 8.1 26.6 65.3 -18.6 9.2 8.8 82.0 0.3
Q3:2019-20           9.3 21.7 69.0 -12.4
‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
More than adequate Less than adequate Adequate Net response More than adequate Less than adequate Adequate Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 11.2 7.2 81.6 4.0 11.3 6.0 82.7 5.2
Q3:2018-19 1,267 10.3 7.2 82.5 3.0 11.9 6.3 81.8 5.6
Q4:2018-19 1,258 11.2 7.4 81.4 3.8 10.6 6.1 83.3 4.5
Q1:2019-20 1,231 11.0 6.7 82.2 4.3 12.2 6.2 81.6 6.0
Q2:2019-20 481 15.1 14.2 70.7 0.9 13.5 6.9 79.6 6.6
Q3:2019-20           15.3 12.4 72.2 2.9
‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 23.7 13.1 63.2 10.7 27.8 9.2 63.0 18.5
Q3:2018-19 1,267 25.1 13.0 61.9 12.1 26.1 10.2 63.7 15.9
Q4:2018-19 1,258 25.0 12.0 63.0 13.0 27.8 8.0 64.2 19.8
Q1:2019-20 1,231 24.6 11.5 64.0 13.1 25.7 8.0 66.2 17.7
Q2:2019-20 481 21.3 21.3 57.5 0.0 24.0 8.2 67.8 15.8
Q3:2019-20           24.3 17.0 58.7 7.3
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 18.3 8.6 73.1 9.8 19.1 5.8 75.1 13.3
Q3:2018-19 1,267 20.1 8.5 71.4 11.6 19.3 7.1 73.6 12.2
Q4:2018-19 1,258 19.7 8.7 71.6 10.9 21.0 5.3 73.7 15.7
Q1:2019-20 1,231 18.2 8.3 73.4 9.9 19.2 6.2 74.6 13.0
Q2:2019-20 481 16.0 14.5 69.6 1.5 18.4 7.4 74.2 11.1
Q3:2019-20           18.1 11.7 70.2 6.4
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above average Below average Average Net response Above average Below average Average Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 14.3 6.1 79.6 -8.2 11.0 5.2 83.7 -5.8
Q3:2018-19 1,267 14.3 4.6 81.0 -9.7 11.3 4.6 84.1 -6.7
Q4:2018-19 1,258 14.9 5.5 79.6 -9.5 12.1 4.2 83.8 -7.9
Q1:2019-20 1,231 13.9 5.7 80.4 -8.3 12.0 3.7 84.3 -8.3
Q2:2019-20 481 17.1 8.4 74.5 -8.6 11.8 4.2 84.0 -7.7
Q3:2019-20           13.2 6.6 80.3 -6.6
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Above average Below average Average Net response Above average Below average Average Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 13.3 6.5 80.2 -6.9 9.9 5.0 85.1 -4.8
Q3:2018-19 1,267 15.0 4.9 80.1 -10.0 10.8 5.2 83.9 -5.6
Q4:2018-19 1,258 14.4 6.5 79.1 -7.9 11.1 4.6 84.3 -6.5
Q1:2019-20 1,231 13.5 6.7 79.8 -6.8 10.5 4.9 84.6 -5.6
Q2:2019-20 481 22.5 8.0 69.5 -14.5 13.0 6.0 81.0 -7.0
Q3:2019-20           15.7 5.0 79.3 -10.7
‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment Outlook
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 16.2 7.8 76.1 8.4 17.6 4.7 77.7 12.9
Q3:2018-19 1,267 16.1 6.7 77.1 9.4 17.1 4.2 78.7 12.9
Q4:2018-19 1,258 16.7 6.9 76.5 9.8 17.0 4.8 78.2 12.2
Q1:2019-20 1,231 15.9 7.3 76.8 8.6 17.1 4.8 78.1 12.3
Q2:2019-20 481 13.4 14.2 72.4 -0.9 16.6 5.7 77.7 10.9
Q3:2019-20           12.1 11.4 76.5 0.7
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 30.0 11.3 58.7 18.6 35.1 7.2 57.6 27.9
Q3:2018-19 1,267 28.5 11.9 59.6 16.5 34.4 7.5 58.0 26.9
Q4:2018-19 1,258 29.3 11.4 59.3 17.8 35.2 6.5 58.3 28.7
Q1:2019-20 1,231 29.7 8.6 61.7 21.1 35.0 5.7 59.3 29.3
Q2:2019-20 481 21.2 22.2 56.6 -1.1 34.3 6.1 59.6 28.3
Q3:2019-20           30.6 14.8 54.7 15.8
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 30.4 5.5 64.2 24.9 30.8 4.5 64.7 26.3
Q3:2018-19 1,267 30.5 5.6 63.9 24.9 30.6 4.0 65.4 26.6
Q4:2018-19 1,258 30.8 4.6 64.6 26.2 29.9 4.4 65.7 25.6
Q1:2019-20 1,231 28.5 5.4 66.1 23.2 29.6 4.1 66.3 25.6
Q2:2019-20 481 28.4 10.7 60.9 17.7 27.7 5.5 66.8 22.1
Q3:2019-20           29.3 5.5 65.3 23.8
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 24.3 10.2 65.5 14.1 25.1 6.5 68.3 18.6
Q3:2018-19 1,267 21.2 10.4 68.4 10.8 24.9 6.7 68.3 18.2
Q4:2018-19 1,258 22.8 7.5 69.6 15.3 25.4 6.2 68.4 19.2
Q1:2019-20 1,231 23.2 7.2 69.6 16.0 25.5 5.0 69.5 20.5
Q2:2019-20 481 19.6 12.7 67.7 6.9 23.0 5.7 71.3 17.3
Q3:2019-20           21.4 8.1 70.5 13.2
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 18.7 6.4 74.9 12.2 19.9 5.6 74.4 14.3
Q3:2018-19 1,267 17.2 6.0 76.8 11.2 19.0 5.9 75.1 13.1
Q4:2018-19 1,258 17.8 7.0 75.2 10.8 20.1 4.1 75.8 16.0
Q1:2019-20 1,231 17.9 6.0 76.1 11.9 19.3 5.0 75.7 14.2
Q2:2019-20 481 14.3 10.0 75.8 4.3 17.4 4.4 78.2 13.0
Q3:2019-20           18.7 6.0 75.3 12.7
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 9.0 4.0 87.0 4.9 9.0 4.6 86.4 4.4
Q3:2018-19 1,267 6.9 4.0 89.1 2.9 9.5 4.3 86.2 5.2
Q4:2018-19 1,258 8.6 3.9 87.6 4.7 9.0 3.0 88.0 6.0
Q1:2019-20 1,231 8.2 4.0 87.8 4.3 9.5 3.5 87.0 6.0
Q2:2019-20 481 6.9 4.1 89.1 2.8 13.1 3.5 83.5 9.6
Q3:2019-20           9.2 4.1 86.7 5.1
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Decrease Increase No change Net response Decrease Increase No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 25.7 6.4 67.9 -19.3 24.1 4.8 71.1 -19.3
Q3:2018-19 1,267 24.9 5.4 69.7 -19.5 24.7 4.9 70.4 -19.8
Q4:2018-19 1,258 21.3 5.6 73.1 -15.7 22.3 4.8 73.0 -17.5
Q1:2019-20 1,231 22.4 4.9 72.7 -17.6 20.2 5.8 74.0 -14.4
Q2:2019-20 481 21.3 8.1 70.6 -13.1 22.5 7.1 70.4 -15.4
Q3:2019-20           18.5 8.4 73.1 -10.0
‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 55.5 2.6 41.8 -52.9 46.2 2.8 50.9 -43.4
Q3:2018-19 1,267 53.1 3.9 43.1 -49.2 46.5 1.9 51.6 -44.5
Q4:2018-19 1,258 46.8 4.8 48.4 -41.9 42.1 3.5 54.3 -38.6
Q1:2019-20 1,231 46.4 3.1 50.5 -43.3 37.2 3.5 59.2 -33.7
Q2:2019-20 481 42.4 7.1 50.5 -35.3 31.4 3.8 64.8 -27.6
Q3:2019-20           37.0 6.2 56.8 -30.8
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 35.5 2.0 62.5 -33.5 32.8 1.2 65.9 -31.6
Q3:2018-19 1,267 29.8 1.6 68.6 -28.2 25.6 1.2 73.2 -24.4
Q4:2018-19 1,258 28.5 1.8 69.7 -26.7 22.8 1.4 75.8 -21.4
Q1:2019-20 1,231 38.8 1.6 59.6 -37.2 34.0 1.1 64.9 -32.9
Q2:2019-20 481 38.6 2.6 58.8 -36.0 34.5 0.9 64.6 -33.7
Q3:2019-20           25.0 1.8 73.2 -23.2
‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 22.1 10.7 67.2 11.3 18.5 9.6 71.9 8.8
Q3:2018-19 1,267 19.9 13.7 66.4 6.2 21.0 6.7 72.3 14.3
Q4:2018-19 1,258 17.5 13.1 69.3 4.4 19.4 7.1 73.5 12.3
Q1:2019-20 1,231 17.1 10.5 72.4 6.6 19.5 8.5 72.0 11.0
Q2:2019-20 481 13.8 21.4 64.8 -7.6 15.5 8.4 76.1 7.1
Q3:2019-20           18.6 14.0 67.3 4.6
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 14.3 26.5 59.2 -12.2 18.0 18.0 64.0 0.0
Q3:2018-19 1,267 16.1 27.8 56.1 -11.7 17.1 17.0 65.9 0.1
Q4:2018-19 1,258 16.2 25.5 58.3 -9.3 18.7 16.7 64.5 2.0
Q1:2019-20 1,231 16.1 24.1 59.8 -8.0 17.8 17.0 65.1 0.8
Q2:2019-20 481 13.5 36.1 50.4 -22.6 21.9 14.5 63.6 7.4
Q3:2019-20           17.6 26.1 56.3 -8.5
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectations
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q2:2018-19 1,095 38.1 10.3 51.6 27.9 40.5 5.9 53.6 34.6
Q3:2018-19 1,267 34.9 10.3 54.8 24.6 43.3 7.0 49.8 36.3
Q4:2018-19 1,258 33.9 11.5 54.7 22.4 43.2 6.5 50.3 36.7
Q1:2019-20 1,231 35.1 10.5 54.4 24.6 42.5 5.6 51.9 36.9
Q2:2019-20 481 24.5 25.4 50.1 -0.8 41.1 6.0 52.9 35.2
Q3:2019-20           37.3 15.6 47.1 21.7
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. Footnote ‘@’ given in Table 1 is applicable here.

Table 23: Business Sentiments
Quarter Business Assessment
Index (BAI)
Business Expectations
Index (BEI)
Q2:2018-19 110.0 114.1
Q3:2018-19 107.1 115.0
Q4:2018-19 107.2 116.2
Q1:2019-20 108.4 113.5
Q2:2019-20 92.5 112.8
Q3:2019-20   102.2

1 The survey responses are those of the respondents and are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India. The survey results of the 86th round (Q1:2019-20) were released on August 7, 2019 on the RBI’s website.

2 For each of the survey round, two indices are computed - one based on assessment namely Business Assessment Index (BAI) and another based on expectations, namely Business Expectations Index (BEI). Each indicator for the respective period is calculated as a weighted (share of GVA of different industry group) net response of nine business indicators. The nine indicators considered are: (1) overall business situation; (2) production; (3) order books; (4) inventory of raw material; (5) inventory of finished goods; (6) profit margins; (7) employment; (8) exports; and (9) capacity utilisation. BAI/BEI gives a snapshot of the business outlook in every quarter and takes values between 0 and 200, with 100 being the threshold separating expansion from contraction.

3 Net Response (NR) is the difference in percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. NR = (I – D), where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/Equal’; I+D+E=100. For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism.


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