Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the July 2019 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. The survey was conducted in 13 major cities – Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram - and obtained 5,351 responses on households’ perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income and spending. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence declined in July as reflected in the current situation index (CSI)2; the future expectations index (FEI) fell by about 4 points (Chart 1). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data II. Consumers’ perceptions on the general economic situation (Table 1) and the employment scenario (Table 2) softened, while their assessment of their own incomes (Table 5) turned out to be less optimistic than in May 2019. III. Respondents perceived a rise in the price level and the majority expect prices to rise over the year ahead (Tables 3 and 4); this boosted sentiments on overall spending, but they were less optimistic about discretionary spending (Tables 6, 7 and 8). | Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 36.4 | 21.9 | 41.8 | -5.4 | 50.4 | 23.0 | 26.6 | 23.8 | | Sep-18 | 33.7 | 22.1 | 44.3 | -10.6 | 53.2 | 16.7 | 30.2 | 23.0 | | Nov-18 | 33.2 | 21.6 | 45.2 | -12.0 | 53.6 | 15.3 | 31.2 | 22.4 | | Dec-18 | 36.7 | 20.2 | 43.1 | -6.4 | 59.9 | 15.8 | 24.3 | 35.6 | | Mar-19 | 46.2 | 21.3 | 32.5 | 13.7 | 66.4 | 15.8 | 17.8 | 48.6 | | May-19 | 38.8 | 23.6 | 37.7 | 1.1 | 61.4 | 17.7 | 20.9 | 40.5 | | Jul-19 | 37.4 | 24.2 | 38.4 | -1.0 | 59.4 | 16.0 | 24.6 | 34.8 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 34.7 | 26.4 | 38.9 | -4.1 | 50.9 | 25.8 | 23.4 | 27.5 | | Sep-18 | 35.2 | 19.3 | 45.5 | -10.3 | 54.1 | 17.0 | 29.0 | 25.1 | | Nov-18 | 33.9 | 18.9 | 47.2 | -13.3 | 53.5 | 16.1 | 30.4 | 23.1 | | Dec-18 | 35.6 | 20.1 | 44.3 | -8.7 | 60.3 | 17.1 | 22.7 | 37.6 | | Mar-19 | 41.1 | 21.7 | 37.2 | 3.9 | 65.3 | 15.9 | 18.9 | 46.4 | | May-19 | 33.7 | 22.1 | 44.2 | -10.5 | 59.3 | 17.6 | 23.1 | 36.2 | | Jul-19 | 32.5 | 21.9 | 45.6 | -13.1 | 56.7 | 17.5 | 25.8 | 30.9 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 89.1 | 7.9 | 3.0 | -86.0 | 82.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | -77.4 | | Sep-18 | 88.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | -85.1 | 80.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | -72.2 | | Nov-18 | 88.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | -84.5 | 80.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | -72.0 | | Dec-18 | 84.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | -79.5 | 71.6 | 15.9 | 12.5 | -59.1 | | Mar-19 | 77.8 | 16.4 | 5.8 | -72.0 | 68.7 | 20.5 | 10.9 | -57.8 | | May-19 | 81.6 | 14.1 | 4.3 | -77.3 | 70.3 | 18.7 | 11.0 | -59.3 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | -78.4 | 73.9 | 16.1 | 10.0 | -63.9 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 81.8 | 10.5 | 7.7 | -74.2 | 79.4 | 13.7 | 6.9 | -72.5 | | Sep-18 | 80.8 | 13.2 | 6.1 | -74.7 | 79.8 | 14.2 | 6.1 | -73.7 | | Nov-18 | 80.0 | 13.9 | 6.1 | -73.9 | 75.9 | 18.0 | 6.1 | -69.8 | | Dec-18 | 77.9 | 15.2 | 6.9 | -71.0 | 76.3 | 17.3 | 6.4 | -69.9 | | Mar-19 | 72.5 | 20.0 | 7.6 | -64.9 | 72.9 | 20.8 | 6.3 | -66.6 | | May-19 | 74.4 | 20.8 | 4.8 | -69.6 | 76.7 | 18.5 | 4.8 | -71.9 | | Jul-19 | 72.5 | 22.3 | 5.2 | -67.3 | 77.8 | 18.0 | 4.1 | -73.7 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 27.1 | 50.8 | 22.1 | 5.0 | 51.3 | 38.0 | 10.7 | 40.5 | | Sep-18 | 28.3 | 48.3 | 23.4 | 4.9 | 59.1 | 33.1 | 7.8 | 51.3 | | Nov-18 | 29.9 | 49.5 | 20.5 | 9.4 | 59.0 | 34.3 | 6.7 | 52.3 | | Dec-18 | 29.8 | 48.2 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 63.5 | 30.4 | 6.2 | 57.3 | | Mar-19 | 30.1 | 50.0 | 19.9 | 10.2 | 60.8 | 33.4 | 5.7 | 55.1 | | May-19 | 29.0 | 50.2 | 20.8 | 8.2 | 58.9 | 35.1 | 6.0 | 52.9 | | Jul-19 | 25.8 | 51.3 | 22.9 | 2.9 | 55.4 | 37.7 | 6.9 | 48.5 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 83.8 | 14.1 | 2.0 | 81.8 | 86.5 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 84.4 | | Sep-18 | 78.4 | 18.2 | 3.5 | 74.9 | 81.2 | 15.7 | 3.1 | 78.1 | | Nov-18 | 73.0 | 23.9 | 3.1 | 69.9 | 77.6 | 19.0 | 3.4 | 74.2 | | Dec-18 | 73.8 | 22.7 | 3.5 | 70.3 | 77.3 | 18.7 | 4.0 | 73.3 | | Mar-19 | 70.1 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 67.0 | 77.5 | 19.9 | 2.6 | 74.9 | | May-19 | 68.6 | 28.0 | 3.4 | 65.2 | 74.7 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 71.8 | | Jul-19 | 71.7 | 25.0 | 3.4 | 68.3 | 76.8 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 73.6 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 86.6 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 84.3 | 87.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 85.0 | | Sep-18 | 83.6 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 80.2 | 84.2 | 13.1 | 2.7 | 81.5 | | Nov-18 | 83.4 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 80.2 | 84.1 | 12.5 | 3.3 | 80.8 | | Dec-18 | 82.4 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 79.3 | 83.5 | 13.0 | 3.4 | 80.1 | | Mar-19 | 78.6 | 18.2 | 3.2 | 75.4 | 83.4 | 14.3 | 2.3 | 81.1 | | May-19 | 80.0 | 17.1 | 2.9 | 77.1 | 80.7 | 16.5 | 2.8 | 77.9 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.7 | 2.6 | 79.1 | 82.9 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 80.1 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jun-18 | 55.4 | 32.9 | 11.7 | 43.8 | 62.7 | 28.0 | 9.3 | 53.4 | | Sep-18 | 44.0 | 34.3 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 49.2 | 33.3 | 17.5 | 31.7 | | Nov-18 | 39.1 | 37.6 | 23.3 | 15.8 | 44.5 | 35.9 | 19.6 | 24.9 | | Dec-18 | 38.4 | 37.5 | 24.1 | 14.3 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 20.9 | 25.2 | | Mar-19 | 36.3 | 43.3 | 20.4 | 15.9 | 46.1 | 37.6 | 16.3 | 29.8 | | May-19 | 32.7 | 40.3 | 27.0 | 5.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 | 23.3 | 16.1 | | Jul-19 | 31.0 | 44.9 | 24.1 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 21.6 | 14.6 |
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