Forecast of output growth, measured using Gross Value Added at basic prices, have been kept unchanged from the previous round of survey at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17 and 7.8 per cent in 2017-18. Quarterly growth projections for the next five quarters indicate that growth is likely to reach 8.0 per cent in Q2:2017-18. Forecast for CPI headline inflation has also been brought down from the previous round and it is expected to be less than 5 per cent from Q3:2016-17. Medium term (5 years) growth expectation remained unchanged at 8 per cent and inflation forecast remained unchanged at 5 per cent as indicated in the last round of the survey.
The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters since September 2007. The results of the survey represent the views of the respondent forecasters and in no way reflect the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India. Twenty Four professional forecasters participated in the latest survey round (Round 42) conducted in September 2016. The results of the survey are presented in the Annex in a tabular form.
2. Quarterly Forecasts
3. Long Term Forecasts
Table A.1: Annual Forecasts for 2016-17 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2016-17 |
| | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 7.6 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 11.7 |
3 | Gross Saving (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) | 31.8 | 31.6 | 33.4 | 30.5 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 29.5 | 29.5 | 32.0 | 27.2 |
5 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 11.4 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 10.1 |
6 | Bank Credit of Scheduled Commercial banks (growth rate in per cent) | 11.6 | 11.5 | 15.4 | 10.1 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
8 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
9 | Repo Rate(end period) | 6.20 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 |
10 | CRR (end period) | 3.97 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
11 | Yield of 91-Days Treasury Bills (end period) | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
12 | YTM of Central Govt. Securities with term to maturity of 10-years (end period) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.7 |
13 | Overall Balance of Payments (in US $ bn.) | 32.0 | 24.7 | 125.0 | 12.0 |
14 | Merchandise Exports (in US $ bn.) | 268.5 | 268.8 | 286.8 | 231.0 |
15 | Merchandise Exports (growth rate in per cent) | 0.8 | 1.2 | 7.7 | -12.0 |
16 | Merchandise Imports (in US $ bn.) | 395.8 | 395.6 | 432.6 | 345.0 |
17 | Merchandise Imports (growth rate in percent) | -0.6 | -1.1 | 9.1 | -9.0 |
18 | Merchandise Trade Balance (per cent of GDP) | -5.7 | -6.0 | -3.3 | -6.8 |
19 | Net Invisible Balance (in US $ bn.) | 105.6 | 108.8 | 118.0 | 83.4 |
20 | Current Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | -18.4 | -20.5 | 35.0 | -34.5 |
21 | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | -0.8 | -1.0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
22 | Capital Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | 72.1 | 45.0 | 382.2 | 31.3 |
23 | Capital Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
Table A.2: Annual Forecasts for 2017-18 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2017-18 |
| | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.5 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 7.8 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 6.3 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 9.2 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 8.2 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.8 | 11.5 |
3 | Gross Saving (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) | 31.9 | 32.1 | 33.9 | 29.0 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 29.8 | 29.8 | 31.0 | 27.5 |
5 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 12.4 | 12.3 | 14.9 | 10.6 |
6 | Bank Credit of Scheduled Commercial banks (growth rate in per cent) | 12.8 | 13.0 | 17.4 | 10.3 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
8 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
9 | Repo Rate(end period) | 6.13 | 6.25 | 6.75 | 5.50 |
10 | CRR (end period) | 3.92 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
11 | Yield of 91-Days Treasury Bills (end period) | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.7 |
12 | YTM of Central Govt. Securities with term to maturity of 10-years (end period) | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
13 | Overall Balance of Payments (in US $ bn.) | 40.9 | 34.0 | 73.7 | 19.4 |
14 | Merchandise Exports (in US $ bn.) | 289.4 | 287.8 | 310.2 | 274.0 |
15 | Merchandise Exports (growth rate in per cent) | 6.4 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 1.9 |
16 | Merchandise Imports (in US $ bn.) | 431.1 | 430.5 | 470.9 | 390.0 |
17 | Merchandise Imports (growth rate in per cent) | 9.5 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 5.7 |
18 | Merchandise Trade Balance (per cent of GDP) | -5.7 | -5.6 | -4.5 | -6.7 |
19 | Net Invisible Balance (in US $ bn.) | 111.5 | 114.0 | 120.0 | 100.0 |
20 | Current Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | -30.6 | -30.0 | -7.0 | -56.5 |
21 | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -1.9 |
22 | Capital Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | 120.3 | 75.0 | 485.5 | 53.5 |
23 | Capital Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
Table A.3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q2:2016-17 to Q2:2017-18 |
| | Quarterly Forecasts |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Q2: 2016-17 | Q3: 2016-17 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 7.2 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 6.1 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 8.6 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 7.6 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 36.0 | 35.9 | 60.5 | 11.3 | 36.7 | 37.1 | 61.2 | 11.7 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 29.8 | 29.7 | 31.5 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 28.2 | 30.3 | 26.3 |
4 | ₹ per U.S. Dollar (RBI reference rate-end period) | - | - | - | - | 67.42 | 67.50 | 68.50 | 65.50 |
5 | Repo Rate (end period) | - | - | - | - | 6.29 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.25 |
6 | CRR (end period) | - | - | - | - | 3.96 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
7 | Merchandise Export (in US$ bn.) | 67.2 | 66.6 | 72.1 | 64.6 | 67.0 | 66.8 | 71.3 | 60.3 |
8 | Merchandise Import (in US$ bn.) | 95.1 | 95.4 | 105.3 | 85.9 | 102.4 | 104.8 | 109.5 | 86.2 |
9 | Indian Crude Oil basket Price (in US$ per barrel) | - | - | - | - | 48.1 | 47.8 | 55.8 | 40.0 |
| | Quarterly Forecasts |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Q4: 2016-17 | Q1: 2017-18 | Q2: 2017-18 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 6.3 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 8.9 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 8.4 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 36.4 | 36.6 | 60.9 | 12.0 | 36.3 | 35.7 | 61.5 | 12.2 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 61.0 | 12.0 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 28.5 | 29.1 | 30.9 | 25.4 | 28.8 | 28.9 | 31.7 | 26.3 | 29.7 | 29.6 | 32.0 | 27.3 |
4 | ₹ per U.S. Dollar (RBI reference rate-end period) | 67.40 | 67.50 | 70.40 | 64.77 | 67.39 | 67.00 | 70.30 | 65.65 | 67.40 | 67.00 | 70.20 | 66.00 |
5 | Repo Rate (end period) | 6.21 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.16 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.09 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.00 |
6 | CRR (end period) | 3.96 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.91 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.91 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
7 | Merchandise Export (in US$ bn.) | 68.9 | 70.0 | 72.9 | 60.6 | 69.7 | 69.5 | 71.5 | 67.8 | 71.5 | 71.1 | 74.9 | 69.2 |
8 | Merchandise Import (in US$ bn.) | 101.6 | 101.2 | 119.1 | 88.8 | 99.7 | 100.7 | 110.4 | 91.3 | 102.5 | 103.6 | 106.9 | 96.0 |
9 | Indian Crude Oil basket Price (in US$ per barrel) | 47.7 | 48.0 | 51.0 | 43.0 | 49.3 | 49.5 | 53.0 | 45.0 | 50.4 | 50.4 | 55.0 | 46.0 |