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Date : Aug 09, 2016
Overall Business Sentiments for Q2:2016-17 appear Optimistic based on IOS

The 74th round of the Reserve Bank of India’s Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) indicates optimistic business sentiments. This round of the survey was conducted during April-June 2016. The survey elicited response from 1,275 manufacturing companies. It provides qualitative assessment of business situation of companies in the Indian manufacturing sector for Q1:2016-17 and their expectations for the ensuing quarter Q2:2016-17. The 73rd round (Q4:2015-16) survey results were released on April 05, 2016 on the RBI website.

The survey results are those of the respondents and are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India.

Highlights:

Assessment for Q1:2016-17

  • The Survey indicates improvement in demand condition in Q1:2016-17 as compared with Q4:2015-16. Net percentage responses indicating higher production, order books, exports/imports and employment during the quarter went up.

  • Availability of finance was perceived to have slightly improved. However, sentiments on cost of finance and cost of raw material, to a greater extent, deteriorated. The pricing power of the corporates appeared to have improved.

  • Overall, the business sentiments of the Indian manufacturing sector, as inferred from the Business Expectation Index (BEI), was slightly more upbeat than the previous quarter.

Expectation for Q2: 2016-17

  • The outlook on business sentiments appears to be more optimistic for Q2:2016-17. The BEI rose from 110.9 (for Q1: 2016-17) to 112.9 (for Q2: 2016-17).

  • Optimism in business sentiments is expressed in all major parameters barring cost of raw material.

Summary Table
Net response1 (in %) comparison over previous quarter
Parameters Assessment period Expectation period
Q4:2015-16 Q1:2016-17 Q1:2016-17 Q2:2016-17
Production 16.8 17.3 25.0 29.0
Order Books 12.1 15.6 21.2 27.3
Pending Orders 13.9 11.0 10.2 6.6
Capacity Utilisation 7.1 6.7 13.4 16.8
Exports 3.3 6.2 13.7 16.8
Imports 4.7 8.4 5.8 9.6
Employment 4.1 5.3 7.1 8.1
Financial Situation 14.3 16.0 24.8 26.9
Availability of Finance 12.4 13.5 19.5 20.1
Cost of Finance -8.7 -9.8 -8.3 -7.5
Cost of Raw Material -24.4 -34.0 -27.7 -31.5
Selling Price -3.7 5.7 7.1 10.1
Profit Margin -16.7 -12.8 -3.6 -0.2
Overall Business Situation 16.2 21.2 30.5 33.5
Salary 27.5 32.0 30.3 26.9
Business Expectation Index2 103.0 104.0 110.9 112.9


Table 1: Assessment & Expectation for Production
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response# Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 34.1 17.8 48.1 16.3 39.6 10.9 49.5 28.7
Q2:2015-16 1304 34.1 18.9 46.9 15.2 40.3 11.4 48.3 28.9
Q3:2015-16 1337 34.2 18.2 47.6 16.0 40.5 11.3 48.2 29.2
Q4:2015-16 1342 35.6 18.8 45.6 16.8 41.2 10.2 48.6 31.1
Q1:2016-17 1275 34.5 17.2 48.3 17.3 38.8 13.8 47.4 25.0
Q2:2016-17           40.2 11.2 48.6 29.0
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable for all the tables from 1 to 17.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion and any value less than zero indicates contraction.

Table 2: Assessment & Expectation for Order Books
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 30.8 17.7 51.5 13.2 37.8 10.5 51.7 27.3
Q2:2015-16 1304 31.1 19.7 49.3 11.4 37.4 11.6 51.0 25.8
Q3:2015-16 1337 30.4 18.8 50.8 11.5 37.4 11.9 50.8 25.5
Q4:2015-16 1342 31.8 19.7 48.5 12.1 39.7 10.6 49.8 29.1
Q1:2016-17 1275 32.1 16.5 51.3 15.6 35.5 14.3 50.3 21.2
Q2:2016-17           38.1 10.8 51.1 27.3
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic.

Table 3: Assessment & Expectation for Pending Orders
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Below Normal Above Normal Normal Net response Below Normal Above Normal Normal Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 18.6 5.1 76.3 13.6 13.1 6.9 80.1 6.2
Q2:2015-16 1304 18.6 5.1 76.3 13.5 14.6 6.1 79.4 8.5
Q3:2015-16 1337 19.2 5.0 75.8 14.3 14.1 6.5 79.4 7.6
Q4:2015-16 1342 18.2 4.3 77.4 13.9 13.3 7.0 79.7 6.3
Q1:2016-17 1275 16.7 5.7 77.6 11.0 15.1 4.9 80.0 10.2
Q2:2016-17           12.9 6.3 80.8 6.6
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic.

Table 4: Assessment & Expectation for Capacity Utilisation
(Percentage responses)
Indicator Options Assessment Expectation
Q1:2015-16 Q2:2015-16 Q3:2015-16 Q4:2015-16 Q1:2016-17 Q2:2015-16 Q3:2015-16 Q4:2015-16 Q1:2016-17 Q2:2016-17
Capacity Utilisation (CU)-(main product) Increase 23.3 21.7 23.4 24.6 21.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 26.3 26.5
No Change 60.0 60.2 60.4 57.9 63.1 62.1 62.0 63.5 60.8 63.9
Decrease 16.7 18.1 16.3 17.5 15.1 10.2 10.2 8.7 12.9 9.7
Net Response 6.7 3.6 7.1 7.1 6.7 17.6 17.5 19.1 13.4 16.8
Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) Above normal 10.2 8.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 10.5 9.2 9.4 9.8 10.3
Normal 71.3 71.9 72.6 71.0 72.5 75.5 77.6 78.2 75.6 77.8
Below Normal 18.6 19.3 18.6 19.2 16.6 13.9 13.1 12.4 14.6 11.9
Net Response -8.4 -10.5 -9.9 -9.4 -5.7 -3.4 -3.9 -3.0 -4.8 -1.6
Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) More than adequate 15.1 14.1 14.3 13.9 14.6 15.8 14.4 14.5 13.8 13.6
Adequate 76.9 78.3 77.2 77.7 76.8 77.5 78.8 78.5 79.1 78.8
Less than adequate 8.0 7.7 8.5 8.5 8.6 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.6
Net Response 7.2 6.4 5.8 5.4 6.0 9.0 7.5 7.5 6.7 6.0
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic.

Table 5: Assessment & Expectation for Exports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 24.1 14.0 62.0 10.1 27.6 8.1 64.3 19.5
Q2:2015-16 1304 23.5 17.8 58.7 5.7 27.5 8.0 64.5 19.6
Q3:2015-16 1337 23.3 17.7 59.0 5.7 27.3 10.6 62.1 16.7
Q4:2015-16 1342 22.1 18.8 59.1 3.3 26.9 10.0 63.1 16.9
Q1:2016-17 1275 21.5 15.3 63.1 6.2 25.7 12.0 62.3 13.7
Q2:2016-17           26.3 9.5 64.2 16.8
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic.

Table 6: Assessment & Expectation for Imports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 19.8 9.1 71.0 10.7 20.3 7.9 71.8 12.4
Q2:2015-16 1304 18.8 10.4 70.7 8.4 18.0 8.1 73.9 9.9
Q3:2015-16 1337 17.2 11.1 71.8 6.1 18.0 8.8 73.2 9.2
Q4:2015-16 1342 17.6 12.9 69.4 4.7 16.4 8.6 75.0 7.7
Q1:2016-17 1275 18.1 9.7 72.3 8.4 16.7 10.9 72.4 5.8
Q2:2016-17           17.5 7.9 74.6 9.6
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic.

Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw Material and Finished Goods)
(Percentage responses)
Indicator Options Assessment Expectation
Q1:2015-16 Q2:2015-16 Q3:2015-16 Q4:2015-16 Q1:2016-17 Q2:2015-16 Q3:2015-16 Q4:2015-16 Q1:2016-17 Q2:2016-17
Inventory of raw material Below average 6.5 7.4 6.5 7.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.9 5.8
Average 79.3 78.9 81.4 80.5 81.7 83.0 83.9 84.8 84.4 83.5
Above average 14.2 13.7 12.2 12.5 12.4 11.5 10.6 9.9 9.7 10.8
Net Response -7.7 -6.3 -5.7 -5.5 -6.4 -6.0 -5.1 -4.7 -3.8 -5.0
Inventory of finished goods Below average 7.2 6.9 7.0 8.7 7.0 6.4 6.3 6.2 7.0 7.1
Average 74.7 75.6 75.7 75.9 77.7 78.9 82.1 81.6 81.9 80.8
Above average 18.1 17.5 17.4 15.4 15.3 14.6 11.6 12.1 11.1 12.1
Net Response -10.9 -10.6 -10.4 -6.7 -8.3 -8.2 -5.3 -5.9 -4.1 -5.0
Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic.

Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 16.7 9.3 74.0 7.4 15.8 7.0 77.2 8.8
Q2:2015-16 1304 15.2 9.3 75.5 5.9 16.5 6.6 76.8 9.9
Q3:2015-16 1337 15.3 9.4 75.3 5.8 15.7 6.1 78.2 9.6
Q4:2015-16 1342 14.2 10.1 75.7 4.1 15.3 6.7 78.0 8.6
Q1:2016-17 1275 15.0 9.7 75.3 5.3 15.1 8.0 76.9 7.1
Q2:2016-17           15.8 7.7 76.5 8.1
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic.

Table 9: Assessment & Expectation for Overall Financial Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 27.9 13.2 59.1 14.4 34.3 8.0 57.7 26.3
Q2:2015-16 1304 27.5 14.0 58.6 13.5 34.2 9.1 56.7 25.1
Q3:2015-16 1337 26.2 12.9 60.9 13.2 34.8 8.8 56.4 26.0
Q4:2015-16 1342 26.6 12.3 61.0 14.3 33.3 8.5 58.2 24.7
Q1:2016-17 1275 27.9 11.9 60.1 16.0 33.1 8.3 58.6 24.8
Q2:2016-17           35.2 8.3 56.5 26.9
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic.

Table 10: Assessment & Expectation for Working Capital Finance Requirement
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 30.2 6.8 63.0 23.5 32.3 5.1 62.6 27.2
Q2:2015-16 1304 30.2 6.0 63.8 24.2 29.6 4.7 65.7 25.0
Q3:2015-16 1337 30.3 6.7 62.9 23.6 29.9 4.3 65.8 25.5
Q4:2015-16 1342 31.7 6.8 61.4 24.9 30.1 4.9 65.0 25.2
Q1:2016-17 1275 28.1 7.2 64.7 20.8 30.0 5.4 64.6 24.6
Q2:2016-17           29.7 5.6 64.7 24.1
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic.

Table 11: Assessment & Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Indicator Options Assessment Expectation
Q1:2015-16 Q2:2015-16 Q3:2015-16 Q4:2015-16 Q1:2016-17 Q2:2015-16 Q3:2015-16 Q4:2015-16 Q1:20 16-17 Q2:20 16-17
Availability of finance (from internal accruals) Improve 21.5 21.1 22.3 21.7 22.4 23.9 23.5 26.1 25.6 25.9
No Change 68.3 68.1 68.3 69.0 68.6 68.9 69.8 67.8 68.3 68.3
Worsen 10.1 10.8 9.4 9.3 8.9 7.2 6.7 6.1 6.1 5.8
Net Response 11.4 10.4 12.9 12.4 13.5 16.7 16.8 20.0 19.5 20.1
Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources) Improve 19.1 19.3 19.2 18.3 18.7 21.2 20.0 20.6 21.6 21.7
No Change 75.6 75.0 74.4 74.2 73.6 75.0 76.3 74.7 73.2 72.7
Worsen 5.4 5.7 6.3 7.5 7.7 3.8 3.8 4.7 5.2 5.5
Net Response 13.7 13.6 12.9 10.8 11.0 17.3 16.2 16.0 16.4 16.2
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) Improve 13.0 11.1 11.3 8.8 10.6 12.9 11.5 12.1 10.0 12.2
No Change 82.2 83.9 83.5 85.3 84.4 83.6 85.0 84.1 85.4 84.1
Worsen 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.9 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.9 4.7 3.8
Net Response 8.2 6.1 6.2 2.9 5.6 9.3 8.0 8.2 5.3 8.4
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic.

Table 12: Assessment & Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Decrease Increase No change Net response Decrease Increase No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 10.2 22.3 67.5 -12.1 8.8 21.8 69.4 -13.0
Q2:2015-16 1304 9.4 20.8 69.7 -11.4 9.9 18.7 71.4 -8.7
Q3:2015-16 1337 14.0 19.4 66.6 -5.4 10.2 17.9 71.9 -7.6
Q4:2015-16 1342 11.0 19.7 69.2 -8.7 10.5 15.9 73.6 -5.5
Q1:2016-17 1275 10.1 19.9 70.0 -9.8 8.8 17.1 74.1 -8.3
Q2:2016-17           9.9 17.4 72.6 -7.5
Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic.

Table 13: Assessment & Expectation for Cost of Raw Material
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Decrease Increase No change Net response Decrease Increase No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 8.6 44.5 46.9 -35.9 6.0 38.8 55.2 -32.8
Q2:2015-16 1304 13.2 38.1 48.7 -24.8 5.2 38.1 56.6 -32.9
Q3:2015-16 1337 12.4 38.7 48.9 -26.4 7.1 35.2 57.7 -28.1
Q4:2015-16 1342 13.3 37.7 49.0 -24.4 6.9 34.2 58.9 -27.3
Q1:2016-17 1275 7.5 41.5 51.0 -34.0 8.3 36.0 55.7 -27.7
Q2:2016-17           6.0 37.5 56.5 -31.5
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw material is optimistic.

Table 14: Assessment & Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 18.3 15.2 66.5 3.1 19.1 8.8 72.1 10.3
Q2:2015-16 1304 15.8 19.8 64.4 -4.0 19.5 11.6 68.8 7.9
Q3:2015-16 1337 16.7 18.0 65.3 -1.4 18.3 12.2 69.5 6.2
Q4:2015-16 1342 15.9 19.6 64.5 -3.7 17.9 10.7 71.4 7.2
Q1:2016-17 1275 18.9 13.2 67.9 5.7 20.2 13.1 66.7 7.1
Q2:2016-17           19.8 9.7 70.5 10.1
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic.

Table 15: Assessment & Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 14.2 28.5 57.3 -14.2 18.8 19.3 61.9 -0.5
Q2:2015-16 1304 13.1 30.0 56.9 -16.9 18.5 20.0 61.5 -1.6
Q3:2015-16 1337 14.3 29.5 56.2 -15.3 18.4 19.7 61.9 -1.3
Q4:2015-16 1342 13.4 30.1 56.5 -16.7 18.1 20.1 61.8 -2.0
Q1:2016-17 1275 14.4 27.4 58.2 -12.8 18.5 22.1 59.4 -3.6
Q2:2016-17           19.1 19.3 61.6 -0.2
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic.

Table 16: Assessment & Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 32.5 12.9 54.6 19.6 42.7 6.7 50.6 36.0
Q2:2015-16 1304 30.2 16.3 53.6 13.9 40.3 8.2 51.5 32.0
Q3:2015-16 1337 31.3 14.0 54.7 17.4 39.9 8.3 51.8 31.6
Q4:2015-16 1342 30.8 14.6 54.6 16.2 40.9 7.6 51.5 33.3
Q1:2016-17 1275 33.3 12.1 54.6 21.2 39.4 8.9 51.7 30.5
Q2:2016-17           41.2 7.7 51.1 33.5
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic.

Table 17: Assessment & Expectation for Salary/Other Remuneration
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q1:2015-16 1299 36.9 2.6 60.5 34.2 27.4 3.9 68.7 23.5
Q2:2015-16 1304 31.7 2.8 65.6 28.9 30.0 2.7 67.3 27.3
Q3:2015-16 1337 28.4 3.2 68.4 25.1 24.3 2.3 73.4 22.0
Q4:2015-16 1342 30.5 3.0 66.5 27.5 25.0 2.8 72.2 22.1
Q1:2016-17 1275 34.9 2.9 62.2 32.0 33.2 2.9 63.9 30.3
Q2:2016-17           30.0 3.1 66.9 26.9
‘Increase in Salary / other remuneration’ is optimistic.

Table 18: Business Expectation Index (BEI)
Quarter BEI-Assessment Quarter BEI-Expectation Quarter
Q1:2015-16 104.8 115.2
Q2:2015-16 102.4 113.1
Q3:2015-16 103.6 113.4
Q4:2015-16 103.0 114.2
Q1:2016-17 104.0 110.9
Q2:2016-17   112.9

1 Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism i.e., NR = (I – D); where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/Equal’; I+D+E=100. For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism.

2 The Business Expectation Index (BEI) is a composite indicator calculated as weighted (share of GVA of different industry group) net response of nine business indicators. The nine indicators considered for computation of BEI are: (1) overall business situation, (2) production, (3) order books, (4) inventory of raw material, (5) inventory of finished goods, (6) profit margin, (7) employment, (8) exports and (9) capacity utilisation. It gives a single snapshot of business outlook in every quarter. BEI lies between 0 to 200, and 100 is the threshold separating expansion from contraction.


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