The Consumer Confidence Survey conducted in Q1 of 2013-14 (13th round), provides an assessment of the consumer sentiments of 5,247 urban households spread across 6 cities viz., Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi, based on their perceptions of the general economic conditions and their own financial situation. The assessments are analysed in two parts, viz., current situation as compared with a year ago and expectations for a year ahead.
Highlights:
-
Current Situation Index (CSI)remained at the same level of last quarter (March 2013).
-
Future Expectations Index (FEI) increased on account of increase in positive perceptions on income and employment.
Table: Current and Future Expectations Index# |
| |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Current Situation Index |
107.0 |
106.9 |
101.7 |
101.7 |
Future Expectation Index |
107.7 |
105.6 |
103.9 |
109.8 |
#: Current employment perception and future household perception have been captured from September 2012. These have been included for calculating CSI and FEI from September 2012 onwards. |
-
The outlook on economic conditions has been consistently better than the positive perceptions on current economic conditions as compared to a year ago.
-
The net response on one-year ahead household circumstances rose to about 28 per cent after remaining at about 22-23 per cent in the earlier three rounds.
-
The optimism regarding increase in future income (one-year ahead) improved.
-
The proportion of respondents reporting improvement in the future employment scenario has consistently been higher than those reporting improvement in current employment as compared to a year ago.
Table 1: Perceptions on Economic Conditions |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Improve |
37.5 |
37.5 |
28.1 |
28.2 |
44.4 |
39.6 |
32.8 |
35.2 |
Remain same |
23.8 |
21.3 |
19.3 |
20.2 |
27.7 |
28.5 |
27.6 |
27.0 |
Worsen |
38.7 |
41.2 |
52.7 |
51.5 |
27.8 |
31.9 |
39.5 |
37.8 |
Net Response |
-1.2 |
-3.8 |
-24.6 |
-23.3 |
16.6 |
7.6 |
-6.7 |
-2.6 |
Table 2: Perceptions on Household Circumstances |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Improve |
45.0 |
44.8 |
40.3 |
42.7 |
44.1 |
46.0 |
43.4 |
49.5 |
Remain same |
26.2 |
25.1 |
29.0 |
19.9 |
34.7 |
31.1 |
34.9 |
28.7 |
Worsen |
28.8 |
30.0 |
30.7 |
37.4 |
21.3 |
22.9 |
21.7 |
21.8 |
Net Response |
16.2 |
14.8 |
9.6 |
5.2 |
22.8 |
23.1 |
21.6 |
27.7 |
Table 3: Major Factors influencing views on Household Circumstances |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Salary and business income |
81.0 |
76.1 |
78.5 |
81.5 |
83.1 |
73.8 |
81.1 |
88.2 |
Interest and dividend income |
26.2 |
21.0 |
25.2 |
12.4 |
23.2 |
23.1 |
20.1 |
12.2 |
Income from real estate sales |
22.5 |
16.9 |
23.7 |
7.4 |
21.1 |
18.9 |
16.0 |
6.4 |
Prices |
50.7 |
52.6 |
59.6 |
64.1 |
42.5 |
50.6 |
55.8 |
67.2 |
Change in value of assets |
21.9 |
18.1 |
21.4 |
2.7 |
19.1 |
20.4 |
19.8 |
2.8 |
The number of dependent in my family |
24.4 |
18.6 |
14.6 |
7.6 |
21.4 |
17.1 |
14.3 |
7.5 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, the percentage responses may add up to be more than 100. |
Table 4: Perceptions on Income |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Increase |
47.8 |
52.4 |
47.5 |
44.7 |
51.9 |
54.5 |
51.6 |
59.1 |
Remain same |
36.1 |
32.3 |
35.3 |
40.8 |
37.8 |
35.9 |
35.9 |
31.8 |
Decrease |
16.1 |
15.3 |
17.2 |
14.5 |
10.3 |
9.6 |
12.5 |
9.1 |
Net Response |
31.7 |
37.1 |
30.3 |
30.1 |
41.5 |
44.9 |
39.0 |
50.0 |
Table 5: Perceptions on Spending |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Increase |
83.6 |
78.5 |
77.3 |
83.9 |
57.9 |
51.5 |
52.5 |
53.5 |
Remain same |
13.0 |
17.0 |
18.3 |
12.2 |
22.4 |
30.2 |
29.0 |
32.0 |
Decrease |
3.4 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
19.7 |
18.2 |
18.5 |
14.6 |
Net Response |
80.3 |
74.1 |
72.9 |
80.1 |
38.2 |
33.3 |
34.0 |
38.9 |
Table 6: Major Factors influencing Spending Perception |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Income |
Future income |
Non- financial assets |
Financial assets |
Expenditure on real estate |
Expenditure on consumer durables |
Number of dependents |
Cost of consumer goods |
Cost of services |
Sep-12 |
44.0 |
31.0 |
19.8 |
17.6 |
20.7 |
32.6 |
29.9 |
82.3 |
68.6 |
Dec-12 |
46.2 |
24.3 |
17.4 |
15.3 |
23.7 |
40.6 |
36.8 |
76.3 |
66.7 |
Mar-13 |
47.4 |
29.4 |
20.0 |
18.8 |
27.0 |
47.3 |
27.0 |
79.3 |
72.1 |
Jun-13 |
45.2 |
16.2 |
5.4 |
13.6 |
7.4 |
33.0 |
20.4 |
85.1 |
79.1 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, total of percentage relating to factors may be more than 100. |
Table 7: Perceptions on Outlays for Major Expenditure |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Sep-13 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Motor Vehicle |
Yes |
18.6 |
19.7 |
15.9 |
12.8 |
Can’t Say |
9.7 |
14.4 |
18.5 |
16.4 |
No |
71.7 |
65.9 |
65.6 |
70.8 |
House |
Yes |
17.4 |
12.7 |
14.2 |
13.6 |
Can’t Say |
11.3 |
20.5 |
17.0 |
13.0 |
No |
71.2 |
66.9 |
68.8 |
73.4 |
Durable goods |
Yes |
20.9 |
20.0 |
15.6 |
13.5 |
Can’t Say |
10.4 |
18.6 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
No |
68.7 |
61.4 |
67.1 |
71.6 |
Gold |
Yes |
- |
- |
21.7 |
21.3 |
Can’t Say |
- |
- |
16.9 |
12.0 |
No |
- |
- |
61.4 |
66.7 |
Table 8: Perceptions on price level |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Increase |
96.3 |
95.0 |
92.2 |
96.0 |
94.9 |
93.0 |
91.5 |
90.2 |
Remain same |
3.4 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
5.8 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
Decrease |
0.3 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
Net Response |
-96.0 |
-94.4 |
-90.2 |
-95.7 |
-93.3 |
-91.9 |
-89.8 |
-87.7 |
Note: Perceptions of increase in prices are considered to be negative sentiments and decrease in prices are considered to be positive sentiments. The net responses are therefore, negative. |
Table 9: Perceptions on rate of change in price levels (Inflation) |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Increase |
90.0 |
93.0 |
89.3 |
92.7 |
89.9 |
86.3 |
86.4 |
90.2 |
Remain Same |
9.1 |
6.2 |
10.4 |
6.8 |
8.2 |
12.5 |
12.8 |
9.5 |
Decrease |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
Net Response |
-89.1 |
-92.2 |
-88.9 |
-92.3 |
-88.0 |
-85.1 |
-85.7 |
-90.0 |
Table 10: Borrowers’ and Depositors’ Perceptions on Interest Rates |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Borrower |
Depositor |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Low |
7.8 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
8.9 |
66.2 |
74.7 |
69.9 |
77.8 |
Appropriate |
24.5 |
19.2 |
21.7 |
19.2 |
25.4 |
20.7 |
26.9 |
19.7 |
High |
67.7 |
73.1 |
71.5 |
71.9 |
8.3 |
4.6 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
Table 11: Current & Future perceptions on Employment |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Improve |
42.8 |
37.2 |
39.4 |
40.9 |
43.6 |
42.2 |
47.5 |
51.1 |
Remain Same |
25.5 |
39.4 |
33.3 |
31.7 |
33.3 |
32.0 |
30.1 |
30.3 |
Worsen |
31.7 |
23.3 |
27.3 |
27.4 |
23.1 |
25.8 |
22.3 |
18.6 |
Net Response |
11.1 |
13.9 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
20.5 |
16.3 |
25.2 |
32.5 |
|