| The Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for the October-December 2012 quarter (30th round) captures the inflation expectations of 5,000 urban households across 16 cities, for the next three-month and next one-year period. In addition to 12 cities covered till the 29th round, this round covers four new cities, viz. Nagpur, Thiruvananthapuram, Bhubaneswar and Kolhapur. These expectations are based on their individual consumption baskets and hence these rates should not be considered as predictors of any official measure of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on near-term inflationary pressures and also supplement other economic indicators to get a better indication of future inflation.
Highlights:
-
Based on data for 12 cities, the three-month ahead median inflation expectation of households increased marginally and one-year ahead median inflation expectation remained at the same level in the December 2012 round as compared with the previous round.
-
Three-month ahead and one-year ahead inflation expectation based on mean increased marginally for data on 12 cities. Inflation expectation based on 16 cities was generally higher than those based on 12 cities.
-
The proportion of respondents expecting price rise by ‘more than current rate’ has marginally decreased for three-month ahead as well as one-year ahead period.
-
The proportion of respondents expecting price increase three-month ahead has diminished for food and non-food products whereas it has gone up for household durables, housing and cost of services.
-
There was no major variation in the inflation expectations across gender, age- group and occupation category of respondents.
-
City-wise inflation expectations varied to some extent. While inflation expectation was above 14 per cent in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Jaipur, Nagpur and Kolhapur, it was less than 10 per cent in Kolkata and Guwahati.
-
On future inflation expectations, 64 per cent (59 per cent in last round) households for three-month ahead and 78 per cent (74 per cent in last round) households for one-year ahead expected double digit inflation.
-
On the awareness of the RBI action to control inflation and its impact, 49 per cent of the respondents were aware of the role of RBI in controlling inflation; 25 per cent felt that RBI is taking necessary action. Among these 25 per cent, 36 per cent reported that RBI’s action has an impact on controlling inflation.
-
While 78 per cent of respondents expected that their income/wages would increase in the next one-year, 25 per cent of respondents expected an increase in next three-month period.
Tables
Table 1: Respondents’ Profile (Category): Share in Total Sample |
Category of Respondents |
Share in Total (%) (12 Cities) |
Share in Total (%) (16 cities) |
Target Share (%) |
Financial Sector Employees |
9.2 |
9.3 |
10 |
Other Employees |
16.9 |
16.6 |
15 |
Self-employed |
21.6 |
21.6 |
20 |
Housewives |
29.4 |
29.1 |
30 |
Retired Persons |
8.9 |
9.2 |
10 |
Daily Workers |
9.2 |
9.1 |
10 |
Others |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5 |
Note: The above sample proportion is for the quarter ended December 2012 survey |
Table 2: Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three-month ahead and One-year ahead |
Round No./Survey period |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 (12 cities) |
30 (16 cities) |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 (12 cities) |
30 (16 cities) |
(quarter ended) → |
Dec-11 |
Mar-12 |
Jun-12 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Dec-12 |
Dec-11 |
Mar-12 |
Jun-12 |
Sep-12 |
Dec-12 |
Dec-12 |
Options: For General |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
96.1 |
98.2 |
99.0 |
98.9 |
98.4 |
98.5 |
97.1 |
98.3 |
99.5 |
99.1 |
98.6 |
98.8 |
- more than current rate |
73.4 |
75.6 |
83.6 |
78.9 |
73.6 |
75.7 |
76.9 |
78.8 |
84.4 |
86.8 |
82.1 |
84.7 |
- similar to current rate |
13.2 |
15.9 |
11.2 |
14.5 |
19.1 |
17.9 |
12.6 |
14.0 |
10.5 |
7.6 |
11.6 |
10.1 |
- less than current rate |
9.6 |
6.7 |
4.2 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
No change in prices |
3.0 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
Decline in price |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Options: For food Product |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
95.3 |
98.2 |
98.8 |
98.8 |
98.6 |
98.4 |
96.8 |
98.2 |
99.4 |
99.1 |
98.6 |
98.8 |
- more than current rate |
70.4 |
69.8 |
80.8 |
78.6 |
72.9 |
74.4 |
73.7 |
74.4 |
82.5 |
85.7 |
80.0 |
82.5 |
- similar to current rate |
16.7 |
21.2 |
14.3 |
15.5 |
21.1 |
19.8 |
15.8 |
18.6 |
12.6 |
9.9 |
14.7 |
12.8 |
- less than current rate |
8.2 |
7.2 |
3.7 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
7.4 |
5.2 |
4.3 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
No change in prices |
3.4 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
Decline in price |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Options: Non Food Product |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
94.3 |
97.5 |
97.8 |
98.1 |
96.9 |
96.7 |
96.2 |
98.1 |
99.3 |
99.0 |
98.0 |
98.1 |
- more than current rate |
66.1 |
63.7 |
72.6 |
70.0 |
62.1 |
63.3 |
67.5 |
68.5 |
79.9 |
80.3 |
76.2 |
78.0 |
- similar to current rate |
18.3 |
24.3 |
20.3 |
20.5 |
25.9 |
25.3 |
20.8 |
22.6 |
15.2 |
13.8 |
17.6 |
16.0 |
- less than current rate |
9.9 |
9.5 |
4.9 |
7.6 |
8.9 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
7.0 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
No change in prices |
4.9 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
Decline in price |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Options: For Household Durables |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
86.9 |
90.0 |
94.3 |
86.9 |
90.7 |
90.2 |
90.6 |
91.9 |
96.3 |
94.9 |
96.1 |
96.2 |
- more than current rate |
53.6 |
50.7 |
63.5 |
49.9 |
48.5 |
50.7 |
54.6 |
52.4 |
66.9 |
60.9 |
58.9 |
61.7 |
- similar to current rate |
19.5 |
25.7 |
22.4 |
21.9 |
29.8 |
27.8 |
22.6 |
25.7 |
18.8 |
21.6 |
25.6 |
23.8 |
- less than current rate |
13.8 |
13.6 |
8.4 |
15.1 |
12.5 |
11.7 |
13.4 |
13.8 |
10.6 |
12.4 |
11.6 |
10.7 |
No change in prices |
10.8 |
8.5 |
5.1 |
11.7 |
8.9 |
9.2 |
7.8 |
7.0 |
3.4 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
Decline in price |
2.3 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
Options: For Housing Prices |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
95.5 |
96.3 |
96.4 |
94.9 |
95.9 |
96.3 |
96.1 |
97.7 |
98.9 |
98.4 |
97.7 |
98.0 |
- more than current rate |
67.4 |
70.4 |
73.0 |
75.1 |
69.1 |
72.8 |
67.3 |
73.4 |
76.9 |
83.5 |
75.7 |
79.5 |
- similar to current rate |
18.2 |
19.5 |
18.3 |
14.8 |
19.9 |
17.7 |
20.6 |
19.3 |
16.8 |
10.7 |
14.7 |
12.5 |
- less than current rate |
10.0 |
6.4 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.9 |
5.7 |
8.2 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
4.2 |
7.3 |
6.0 |
No change in prices |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
Decline in price |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Options: For Cost of Services |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
91.9 |
95.8 |
96.4 |
93.6 |
94.6 |
94.4 |
93.6 |
97.1 |
98.1 |
97.4 |
96.4 |
96.8 |
- more than current rate |
58.7 |
67.3 |
73.0 |
69.1 |
68.8 |
68.8 |
65.3 |
69.6 |
74.0 |
76.5 |
72.2 |
73.9 |
- similar to current rate |
21.2 |
20.3 |
18.3 |
17.8 |
19.0 |
18.7 |
18.6 |
19.8 |
18.5 |
14.5 |
17.7 |
16.3 |
- less than current rate |
12.1 |
8.2 |
5.1 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
9.8 |
7.7 |
5.6 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
No change in prices |
7.4 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
Decline in price |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Table 3: Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three-month ahead and One-year ahead |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter ended |
Food |
Non-Food |
Households durables |
Housing |
Cost of services |
Three-month ahead period |
26 |
Dec-11 |
87.9 |
82.4 |
67.6 |
74.4 |
74.7 |
27 |
Mar-12 |
87.7 |
82.7 |
65.4 |
84.1 |
83.7 |
28 |
Jun-12 |
90.5 |
84.5 |
73.2 |
82.8 |
82.6 |
29 |
Sep-12 |
90.9 |
86.0 |
60.5 |
83.3 |
81.1 |
30 (12 cities) |
Dec-12 |
89.0 |
83.1 |
66.6 |
83.6 |
85.8 |
30 (16 cities) |
Dec-12 |
89.5 |
82.6 |
67.2 |
84.2 |
83.6 |
One-year ahead period |
26 |
Dec-11 |
92.3 |
84.5 |
68.0 |
78.1 |
81.2 |
27 |
Mar-12 |
91.8 |
84.0 |
65.7 |
83.9 |
85.9 |
28 |
Jun-12 |
92.5 |
88.0 |
77.1 |
85.1 |
87.1 |
29 |
Sep-12 |
95.9 |
90.3 |
69.5 |
91.0 |
87.2 |
30 (12 cities) |
Dec-12 |
95.1 |
88.2 |
73.8 |
88.5 |
88.4 |
30 (16 cities) |
Dec-12 |
95.4 |
88.2 |
74.0 |
89.7 |
87.2 |
Table 4: Household Inflation Expectations - Current, Three-month Ahead and One-year Ahead |
Survey Round |
Survey Quarter Ended |
Inflation rate in per cent |
Current |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
26 |
Dec-11 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
13.3 |
13.5 |
3.4 |
27 |
Mar-12 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
4.1 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
3.8 |
28 |
Jun-12 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.9 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
29 |
Sep-12 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.8 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
30 (12 cities) |
Dec-12 |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
3.7 |
30 (16 cities) |
Dec-12 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
Table 5 A : Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for December 2012 Survey Round (based on 12 cities) |
|
Current |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Gender |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
10.7 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.7 |
Female |
11.2 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
12.9 |
14.5 |
3.8 |
Category |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financial Sector Employees |
10.1 |
9.5 |
3.3 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
12.3 |
12.5 |
3.5 |
Other Employees |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.2 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Self Employed |
10.7 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
3.9 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.9 |
Housewives |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
3.9 |
Retired Persons |
10.8 |
10.5 |
3.2 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.4 |
Daily Workers |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
12.8 |
14.5 |
3.9 |
Other category |
10.7 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
12.8 |
14.0 |
3.8 |
Age-group |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Up to 25 years |
10.7 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
3.6 |
25 to 30 years |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.2 |
11.3 |
11.0 |
3.4 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
3.5 |
30 to 35 years |
11.0 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
4.0 |
35 to 40 years |
11.1 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
11.9 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
3.8 |
40 to 45 years |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
12.9 |
14.5 |
3.8 |
45 to 50 years |
11.1 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
3.9 |
50 to 55 years |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.8 |
55 to 60 years |
10.8 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
11.4 |
11.0 |
3.6 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
3.6 |
60 years and above |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
3.7 |
City |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mumbai |
13.7 |
13.5 |
1.8 |
14.8 |
14.5 |
1.4 |
15.8 |
16.5 |
0.9 |
Delhi |
11.3 |
10.5 |
4.2 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
4.3 |
13.3 |
15.0 |
3.8 |
Chennai |
10.5 |
10.5 |
2.0 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
2.0 |
10.9 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
Kolkata |
8.0 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
8.2 |
8.5 |
2.3 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
1.9 |
Bengaluru |
14.1 |
16.5 |
3.3 |
14.6 |
16.5 |
2.9 |
15.0 |
16.5 |
2.5 |
Hyderabad |
11.9 |
12.5 |
1.9 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
2.1 |
13.1 |
13.5 |
2.5 |
Ahmedabad |
8.3 |
8.5 |
1.8 |
10.3 |
9.5 |
2.0 |
14.9 |
15.5 |
2.1 |
Lucknow |
11.3 |
11.5 |
2.5 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
2.3 |
14.7 |
15.0 |
2.0 |
Jaipur |
14.0 |
16.5 |
4.4 |
14.0 |
16.5 |
4.3 |
15.2 |
16.5 |
3.4 |
Bhopal |
8.8 |
8.5 |
1.8 |
9.9 |
9.5 |
2.0 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
2.2 |
Patna |
10.9 |
10.5 |
2.9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
2.7 |
14.6 |
15.5 |
2.1 |
Guwahati |
8.1 |
8.5 |
0.6 |
8.3 |
8.5 |
1.1 |
9.6 |
9.5 |
1.6 |
All (12 cities) |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3,4 |
13.0 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Table 5 B :Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for December 2012 Survey Round (based on 16 cities) |
|
Current |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Gender |
Male |
10.8 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
Female |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
12.2 |
12.5 |
3.3 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
3.3 |
Category |
Financial Sector Employees |
10.3 |
9.5 |
3.4 |
11.3 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.3 |
Other Employees |
11.0 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
13.2 |
14.5 |
3.3 |
Self Employed |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
13.2 |
14.5 |
3.6 |
Housewives |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
12.2 |
12.5 |
3.3 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
3.3 |
Retired Persons |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.2 |
Daily Workers |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
3.5 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.5 |
Other category |
10.8 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
Age-group |
Up to 25 years |
10.7 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
25 to 30 years |
10.7 |
9.5 |
3.2 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.2 |
30 to 35 years |
11.1 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
3.6 |
35 to 40 years |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
12.2 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
40 to 45 years |
11.1 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
3.5 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.5 |
45 to 50 years |
11.1 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
3.5 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
3.5 |
50 to 55 years |
11.2 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
12.0 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
13.3 |
14.5 |
3.2 |
55 to 60 years |
10.8 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
3.2 |
60 years and above |
11.1 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
3.5 |
City |
Mumbai |
13.7 |
13.5 |
1.8 |
14.8 |
14.5 |
1.4 |
15.8 |
16.5 |
0.9 |
Delhi |
11.3 |
10.5 |
4.2 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
4.3 |
13.3 |
15.0 |
3.8 |
Chennai |
10.5 |
10.5 |
2.0 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
2.0 |
10.9 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
Kolkata |
8.0 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
8.2 |
8.5 |
2.3 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
1.9 |
Bengaluru |
14.1 |
16.5 |
3.3 |
14.6 |
16.5 |
2.9 |
15.0 |
16.5 |
2.5 |
Hyderabad |
11.9 |
12.5 |
1.9 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
2.1 |
13.1 |
13.5 |
2.5 |
Ahmedabad |
8.3 |
8.5 |
1.8 |
10.3 |
9.5 |
2.0 |
14.9 |
15.5 |
2.1 |
Lucknow |
11.3 |
11.5 |
2.5 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
2.3 |
14.7 |
15.0 |
2.0 |
Jaipur |
14.0 |
16.5 |
4.4 |
14.0 |
16.5 |
4.3 |
15.2 |
16.5 |
3.4 |
Bhopal |
8.8 |
8.5 |
1.8 |
9.9 |
9.5 |
2.0 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
2.2 |
Patna |
10.9 |
10.5 |
2.9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
2.7 |
14.6 |
15.5 |
2.1 |
Guwahati |
8.1 |
8.5 |
0.6 |
8.3 |
8.5 |
1.1 |
9.6 |
9.5 |
1.6 |
Thiruvananthapuram |
11.3 |
11.5 |
1.5 |
12.3 |
12.5 |
1.9 |
15.1 |
15.5 |
1.8 |
Bhubaneswar |
7.8 |
7.5 |
1.8 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
2.6 |
10.7 |
10.5 |
2.3 |
Nagpur |
12.6 |
11.5 |
3.2 |
14.3 |
14.5 |
2.2 |
15.8 |
16.5 |
1.2 |
Kolhapur |
14.1 |
16.5 |
3.7 |
15.1 |
16.5 |
3.1 |
15.9 |
16.5 |
1.9 |
All |
11.0 |
10.5 |
3.4 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
13.2 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
Table 6 A: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three-month Ahead Inflation Expectations (12 cities) |
(Number of respondents) |
|
Three-month ahead inflation rate (per cent) |
Current inflation rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
12 |
1-2 |
|
1 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
2-3 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
3-4 |
|
|
3 |
|
4 |
6 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
4-5 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
24 |
5-6 |
1 |
|
|
|
8 |
21 |
27 |
16 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
87 |
6-7 |
4 |
|
|
|
1 |
7 |
35 |
42 |
13 |
27 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
|
144 |
7-8 |
10 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
24 |
201 |
203 |
82 |
31 |
12 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
6 |
14 |
589 |
8-9 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
10 |
198 |
272 |
31 |
24 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
8 |
9 |
563 |
9-10 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
5 |
24 |
97 |
193 |
68 |
22 |
12 |
11 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
444 |
10-11 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
8 |
47 |
212 |
74 |
13 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
|
372 |
11-12 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
34 |
146 |
58 |
20 |
2 |
9 |
|
279 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
33 |
237 |
70 |
3 |
2 |
|
350 |
13-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
33 |
186 |
42 |
2 |
|
264 |
14-15 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
25 |
100 |
30 |
|
157 |
15-16 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
13 |
84 |
1 |
105 |
>=16 |
4 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
549 |
2 |
578 |
Total |
33 |
6 |
10 |
6 |
21 |
43 |
97 |
282 |
444 |
494 |
319 |
358 |
289 |
363 |
326 |
175 |
702 |
28 |
3996 |
Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and three-month ahead inflations. |
Table 6 B: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three-month Ahead Inflation Expectations (16 Cities) |
(Number of respondents) |
|
Three-month ahead inflation rate (per cent) |
Current inflation rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
12 |
1-2 |
|
2 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
2-3 |
|
1 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
3-4 |
|
|
3 |
|
4 |
6 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
4-5 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
5 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
33 |
5-6 |
3 |
|
|
|
8 |
24 |
32 |
19 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
101 |
6-7 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
7 |
38 |
62 |
19 |
28 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
|
177 |
7-8 |
14 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
24 |
212 |
247 |
128 |
52 |
25 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
6 |
14 |
728 |
8-9 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
10 |
205 |
277 |
66 |
59 |
5 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
649 |
9-10 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
5 |
24 |
111 |
214 |
101 |
33 |
15 |
20 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
542 |
10-11 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
8 |
71 |
242 |
113 |
35 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
|
495 |
11-12 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
45 |
178 |
78 |
36 |
13 |
12 |
|
372 |
12-13 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
47 |
268 |
89 |
12 |
7 |
|
429 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
49 |
191 |
47 |
5 |
|
294 |
14-15 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
31 |
111 |
46 |
1 |
191 |
15-16 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
114 |
1 |
138 |
>=16 |
4 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
771 |
2 |
801 |
Total |
44 |
7 |
14 |
7 |
25 |
50 |
106 |
320 |
502 |
560 |
420 |
482 |
385 |
455 |
386 |
220 |
987 |
30 |
5000 |
Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and three-month ahead inflations. |
Table 7 A: Cross-tabulation of Current and One-year Ahead Inflation Expectations (12 cities) |
(Number of respondents) |
|
One-year ahead inflation rate (per cent) |
Current inflation rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
|
12 |
1-2 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
8 |
2-3 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
3-4 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
4 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
14 |
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
2 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
5 |
|
|
24 |
5-6 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
21 |
3 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
11 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
11 |
|
87 |
6-7 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
4 |
37 |
1 |
38 |
9 |
14 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
9 |
5 |
12 |
1 |
144 |
7-8 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
85 |
63 |
167 |
106 |
40 |
16 |
9 |
12 |
26 |
30 |
19 |
589 |
8-9 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
12 |
111 |
72 |
149 |
105 |
11 |
6 |
17 |
14 |
39 |
15 |
563 |
9-10 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
29 |
75 |
22 |
103 |
50 |
30 |
47 |
18 |
56 |
4 |
444 |
10-11 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
44 |
16 |
101 |
40 |
80 |
43 |
33 |
|
372 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
36 |
8 |
73 |
43 |
55 |
53 |
1 |
279 |
12-13 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
5 |
20 |
26 |
165 |
73 |
53 |
1 |
350 |
13-14 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
11 |
28 |
148 |
66 |
4 |
264 |
14-15 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
11 |
137 |
|
157 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
95 |
3 |
105 |
>=16 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
559 |
4 |
578 |
Total |
52 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
27 |
64 |
122 |
257 |
342 |
360 |
318 |
217 |
203 |
409 |
409 |
1152 |
52 |
3996 |
Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and one-year ahead inflations. |
Table 7 B: Cross-tabulation of Current and One-year Ahead Inflation Expectations (16 Cities) |
(Number of respondents) |
| |
One-year ahead inflation rate (per cent) |
Current inflation rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
|
12 |
1-2 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
10 |
2-3 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
13 |
3-4 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
4 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
15 |
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
33 |
5-6 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
23 |
6 |
15 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
11 |
|
101 |
6-7 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
4 |
37 |
3 |
52 |
17 |
18 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
12 |
1 |
177 |
7-8 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
12 |
94 |
69 |
187 |
147 |
72 |
32 |
19 |
13 |
28 |
30 |
19 |
728 |
8-9 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
14 |
120 |
72 |
154 |
115 |
23 |
21 |
22 |
33 |
48 |
15 |
649 |
9-10 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
29 |
77 |
22 |
108 |
56 |
40 |
59 |
44 |
93 |
4 |
542 |
10-11 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
46 |
21 |
108 |
59 |
90 |
86 |
70 |
|
495 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
37 |
9 |
84 |
65 |
73 |
93 |
1 |
372 |
12-13 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
5 |
22 |
29 |
181 |
100 |
83 |
1 |
429 |
13-14 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
13 |
30 |
159 |
80 |
4 |
294 |
14-15 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
15 |
167 |
|
191 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
127 |
4 |
138 |
>=16 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
782 |
4 |
801 |
Total |
55 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
30 |
72 |
139 |
287 |
379 |
415 |
374 |
262 |
276 |
480 |
560 |
1604 |
53 |
5000 |
| Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and one-year ahead inflations. |
Table 8 A : Awareness of RBI’s Action on controlling Inflation and their Impact (12 cities) |
(Percentage of respondents) |
Category |
Whether RBI is taking action to control inflation |
Yes |
No |
No Idea |
Impact of RBI’s action to control inflation |
Yes |
No |
No Idea |
Total |
Financial Sector Employees |
18.6 |
19.7 |
6.3 |
44.5 |
18.6 |
36.9 |
Other Employees |
9.9 |
17.9 |
2.1 |
29.8 |
25.1 |
45.1 |
Self-Employed |
7.8 |
15.2 |
3.6 |
26.6 |
23.9 |
49.5 |
Housewives |
7.2 |
9.2 |
0.8 |
17.2 |
23.4 |
59.4 |
Retired persons |
9.6 |
18.6 |
2.5 |
30.8 |
25.7 |
43.5 |
Daily Workers |
5.1 |
5.4 |
3.0 |
13.6 |
27.9 |
58.5 |
Other Categories |
8.3 |
12.0 |
3.6 |
24.0 |
23.4 |
52.6 |
All |
8.9 |
13.5 |
2.6 |
25.1 |
24.0 |
51.0 |
Table 8 B: Awareness of RBI’s Action on controlling Inflation and their Impact (16 cities) |
(Percentage of respondents) |
Category |
Whether RBI is taking action to control inflation |
Yes |
No |
No Idea |
Impact of RBI’s action to control inflation |
Yes |
No |
No Idea |
Total |
Financial Sector Employees |
22.8 |
19.6 |
5.4 |
47.8 |
19.0 |
33.2 |
Other Employees |
12.8 |
16.5 |
2.7 |
31.9 |
26.1 |
41.9 |
Self-Employed |
12.0 |
13.8 |
4.2 |
30.0 |
24.5 |
45.5 |
Housewives |
10.5 |
8.6 |
2.1 |
21.1 |
23.9 |
55.0 |
Retired persons |
12.7 |
17.0 |
2.6 |
32.3 |
26.4 |
41.3 |
Daily Workers |
9.4 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
17.8 |
27.6 |
54.6 |
Other Categories |
13.2 |
12.0 |
4.3 |
29.5 |
24.4 |
46.1 |
All |
12.6 |
12.6 |
3.2 |
28.5 |
24.5 |
47.0 |
Table 9 A: Respondent's Expectation on Change in Wage/Income level (based on 12 cities) |
(Percentage of respondents) |
Category of Respondents |
Change in income since last year |
Change in income in three-month ahead period |
Change in income in one-year ahead period |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Financial Sector Employees |
71.6 |
24.6 |
2.5 |
34.7 |
63.4 |
0.8 |
89.3 |
8.7 |
0.8 |
Other Employees |
66.2 |
32.4 |
0.7 |
23.0 |
75.9 |
0.6 |
83.3 |
16.0 |
0.3 |
Total Employees |
68.9 |
28.5 |
1.6 |
28.9 |
69.7 |
0.7 |
86.3 |
12.3 |
0.6 |
Self- Employed |
50.6 |
38.3 |
10.6 |
25.3 |
68.6 |
5.7 |
70.8 |
24.3 |
4.4 |
Daily Workers |
49.9 |
41.5 |
7.1 |
18.4 |
77.0 |
3.0 |
68.6 |
28.2 |
1.6 |
Total |
59.0 |
35.2 |
5.8 |
25.3 |
71.8 |
2.9 |
77.7 |
20.1 |
2.2 |
Table 9 B: Respondent's Expectation on Change in Wage/Income level (based on 16 cities) |
(Percentage of respondents) |
Category of Respondents |
Change in income since last year |
Change in income in three-month ahead period |
Change in income in one-year ahead period |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Financial Sector Employees |
70.7 |
25.9 |
2.4 |
36.0 |
62.3 |
0.9 |
89.9 |
8.2 |
1.1 |
Other Employees |
64.7 |
33.9 |
0.8 |
24.0 |
75.2 |
0.5 |
84.3 |
15.1 |
0.2 |
Total Employees |
67.7 |
29.9 |
1.6 |
30.0 |
68.7 |
0.7 |
87.1 |
11.6 |
0.7 |
Self- Employed |
50.3 |
39.0 |
10.3 |
26.1 |
68.2 |
5.3 |
71.8 |
23.6 |
4.2 |
Daily Workers |
49.3 |
42.5 |
6.8 |
20.0 |
75.9 |
2.9 |
70.6 |
26.3 |
1.8 |
Total |
58.1 |
36.2 |
5.7 |
26.2 |
71.0 |
2.8 |
78.7 |
19.2 |
2.1 |
|
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