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Date : Apr 16, 2012
Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: January-March 2012(57th Round)

This article presents the survey findings of Industrial Outlook Survey conducted for January-March 2012 quarter, the 57th round in the series. It gives an assessment of business situation of companies in manufacturing sector, for the quarter January-March 2012, and their expectations for the ensuing quarter April-June 2012. The survey results showed an improvement in demand conditions in Indian manufacturing sector for January-March 2012; however, a slight moderation is expected for April-June 2012. In case of financial conditions, marginal improvement was observed for both the quarters under review. The Business Expectation Index, a measure that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each study quarter increased to 114.9 from 110.1 for the assessment quarter but declined to 116.8 from 117.2 for the expectation quarter; however, it remains well above 100, the threshold that separates contraction from expansion.

Highlights

  • The demand conditions based on production, order books, capacity utilisation (CU), imports and exports showed some improvement in the assessment quarter as compared with the previous quarter, based on the Net Responses1. However, the net responses declined marginally for the expectation quarter. The survey indicated slight improvement in employment outlook. Majority of respondents reported maintaining an average level of Inventories (raw material and finished goods) in both the assessment and expectation quarters.

  • Assessment of overall financial situation improved in the current quarter after a steady decline in the last four quarters. Net response on availability of finance followed a similar trend. The survey showed that the pressure from the cost of external finance and Cost of raw material was persistent. However, the percentage of respondents reporting further increase in costs declined to some extent. Similarly, net response on profit margin continued to be negative; even with some improvement in the percentage of respondents reporting increased profit margin during the assessment quarter.

  • Industry-wise breakup shows that majority of industry groups have positive sentiments in demand conditions and financial conditions in the assessment quarter. However, in ‘Cement’ and ‘Fertilisers’ industries optimism level for demand conditions declined.

  • Size-wise breakup shows that higher optimism in demand conditions and financial conditions across all size groups.

  • Introduction:

    The Reserve Bank of India has been conducting the Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) on a quarterly basis since 1998. The Survey gives insight into the perception of the public and private limited companies engaged in manufacturing activities about their own performance and prospects. The assessment of business sentiments for the current quarter and expectations for the ensuing quarter are based on qualitative responses on 20 major parameters covering overall business situation, financial situation, demand indicators, price, profit margins and employment situation. The survey provides useful forward-looking inputs for policymakers, analysts and business alike.

II. Data Coverage and Methodology

II.1 Sample Size

The sample covers a panel of about 2,000 public and private limited companies, mostly with paid-up capital above ` 5 million in the manufacturing sector. The fieldwork for the survey was carried out by an agency during mid-January to mid-March 2012. The panel of respondents is kept uniform to the extent possible with periodic updating in the case of addition of new companies or exclusion of closed/merged companies. The sample is chosen so as to get a good representation of size and industry.

II.2 Response to the Survey

The survey elicited response from 1234 (response rate around 61%) manufacturing companies.

II.3 Survey Schedule

The survey schedule consists of mainly qualitative questions containing five blocks and the target respondents are senior management personnel or finance heads of the companies.

III. Survey Findings

III.1 Demand condition

The survey collects perceptions of the Indian manufacturers about prominent demand-related parameters, namely, Production, Order Books, Capacity Utilisation, Inventory, Exports and Imports.

III.1.1 Production

The net response favouring higher production in assessment quarter improved for the second consecutive quarter after declining in the previous three quarters. However, it remained well below the peak observed in Q3:2010-11.The net response declined for the expectation quarter (Table 1 and Chart 1).

1

III.1.2 Order Books

The net response on order books, also showed a similar trend. (Table 2 and Chart 2).

2

III.1.3 Pending order

3

The pending order position was at normal or below normal for most of the companies in assessment quarter and is expected to remain there in the expectation quarter (Table 3 and Chart 3).

III.1.4 Capacity Utilisation (CU)

The survey collects views of manufacturing companies on changes in CU level (increase/decrease / no change) for the main product, level of CU compared with the average in the last four quarters (above normal/ below normal/ normal); and assessment of production capacity with regard to expected demand in the next six months (more than adequate/less than adequate/ adequate).

The net response for higher CU increased from 10.8 per cent to 16.7 per cent in assessment quarter but declined for expectation quarter consistent with sentiments on production and order books (Table 4 and Chart 4).

4

III.1.5 Inventory of Raw Materials & Finished Goods

Majority of the respondents (79 to 85 per cent) have reported to have maintained the average level of inventory of raw materials and inventory of finished goods in the assessment quarter as well as expectation quarter (Table 5). The inventory position is expected to remain broadly the same in the expectation quarter.

III.1.6 Exports and Imports

The survey signals a marginal improvement in the sentiments for higher exports and imports for both the assessment and expectation quarters.(Tables 6 & 7 and Charts 5 & 6).

5

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III.1.7 Employment Situation

Nearly three-fourth of the respondents reported ‘no change’ in their labour force in the assessment quarter and in the expectation quarter. However, the net response favouring higher Employment increased marginally in both the assessment and expectation quarters (Table 8, Chart 7).

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III.2 Financial Conditions

The survey assesses sentiments about financial conditions based on the parameters, viz., overall financial situation, working capital finance requirement (excluding internal sources of funds), and availability of finance (both internal and external sources), cost of external finance, cost of raw material, selling price and profit margin.

III.2.1 Overall Financial Situation

Overall financial situation showed an improvement in assessment and expectation quarters after successive declines in the last four quarters. The net response for better financial situation in the assessment quarter increased from 11.2 per cent to 18.5 per cent. The respondents also expected an improvement in overall financial situation in the ensuing quarter as the net response increased from 25.2 per cent to 27.7 per cent (Table 9, Chart 8).

8

III. 2.2 Working Capital Finance requirement and Availability of Finance

The sentiment for working capital finance requirement in the assessment quarter improved with net response increasing from 33.3 per cent to 34.9 per cent; however, a marginal moderation in net response is indicated for the expectation quarter (Table 10).

The survey showed that the level of optimism on ‘availability of finance’ improved in both the assessment and expectation quarters after declines in the last four quarters (Table 11, Chart 9).

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III. 2.3 Cost of Finance

The perception about cost of finance remained negative for both the quarters under review. However, the percentage of respondents who experienced higher cost of finance over the previous quarter declined from 53.4 per cent to 41.1 per cent in assessment quarter. Correspondingly, share of respondents indicating ‘No change’ increased (Table 12). A similar sentiment is expressed for the expectation quarter.

III.2.4 Cost of Raw Material

Negative sentiment on cost of raw materials persisted for both the assessment and expectation quarters (Table 13, Chart 10). However, the percentage of respondents who experienced higher cost of raw material declined marginally in the assessment quarter and also in the expectation quarter.

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III.2.5 Selling price

Majority of the respondents (63-66 per cent) did not report any change in selling prices during both the quarters under review. Still, marginally higher percentage of respondents assessed/anticipated an increase in selling prices in the assessment/expectation quarter (Table 14, and Chart 11).

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III.2.6 Profit margin

The net response on profit margin continued to be negative but with some improvement in the percentage of respondents reporting increased profit margin during the assessment quarter (Table 15 and Chart 12).

III.3 Overall Business Situation

III.3.1 Overall Business Situation

The net response on overall business situation as perceived by the respondent companies, increased for assessment and expectation quarters after a continued decline in the last four quarters (Table 16, Chart 13).

III.3.2 Business Expectation Index (BEI)

The Business Expectation Index gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter. This index is computed as a weighted average of net responses from all the industries on nine select performance parameters where the weights are the industry’s share in Gross Value Added (GVA). The selected parameters are Overall Business Situation, Production, Order Books, Inventory of Raw Materials, Inventory of Finished Goods, Profit Margin, Employment, Exports and Capacity Utilisation. The methodology for compilation of the BEI is given in the article Quarterly Industrial Outlook Surveys: Trends since 2001 published in October 2009 Bulletin.

BEI increased from 110.3 to 114.9 for the assessment quarter even though it declined marginally from 117.2 to 116.8 for expectation quarter (Table17 Chart 14). A value of BEI above 100 can be considered as positive assessment/outlook on the business sentiment.

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III.3.3 Industry-wise and Size-wise Analysis

Most of the industry groups reported improved demand conditions and financial conditions. However, in ‘Cement’ & ‘Fertilisers’ industries, optimism level for demand declined as compared with the previous quarter (Table 18).

Size-wise analysis shows that there was higher optimism level for demand conditions and financial conditions across all the size groups (Table 19).

III.3.4 Constraints for attaining the normal production level

About 50 per cent of companies reported Production Constraints for attaining the normal production level during the quarter January-March 2012. Major constraints reported are lack of domestic demand, shortage of power, shortage of working capital finance and shortage of raw material. Industry-wise break-up reveals that companies in four industry groups, viz, ‘Textiles’, ‘Transport equipments’, ‘Basic metals and metal products’ and  ‘Food products’ felt more production constraints when compared with other industries. (Table 20).

Table 1: Assessment & Expectations for Production

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

40.9

18.3

40.8

22.6

38.5

16.1

45.5

22.4

Oct-Dec 09

1256

44.0

15.2

40.8

28.9

46.0

11.0

43.0

35.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

49.0

12.5

38.5

36.5

48.8

8.8

42.3

40.0

Apr-Jun 10

1092

48.4

13.0

38.6

35.4

45.8

9.9

44.3

35.9

Jul-Sep 10

1403

51.6

11.6

36.8

40.0

49.7

9.4

40.9

40.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

53.9

10.0

36.0

43.9

55.9

6.8

37.3

49.1

Jan-Mar 11

1524

52.1

10.7

37.1

41.4

55.4

6.8

37.7

48.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

47.8

15.7

36.5

32.1

49.1

9.1

41.8

40.0

July-Sep 11

1528

40.8

18.3

40.9

22.6

49.6

9.0

41.5

40.6

Oct-Dec 11

1450

42.2

16.9

41.0

25.3

49.5

9.5

41.0

39.9

Jan-Mar 12

1234

45.6

12.5

41.9

33.1

49.8

9.5

40.7

40.4

Apr-June 12

45.4

10.6

44.0

34.7

#Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable throughout the article.

Table 2: Assessment & Expectations for Order books

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

38.2

17.7

44.1

20.5

35.5

18.7

45.8

16.8

Oct-Dec 09

1256

39.5

13.6

46.8

25.9

43.5

11.2

45.3

32.3

Jan-Mar 10

1079

43.5

11.6

44.9

31.9

44.8

9.1

46.1

35.8

Apr-Jun 10

1092

41.8

10.5

47.7

31.3

42.3

8.9

48.8

33.4

Jul-Sep 10

1403

45.4

9.3

45.3

36.1

44.4

8.1

47.5

36.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

46.9

9.1

44.0

37.9

49.8

5.1

45.1

44.8

Jan-Mar 11

1524

44.8

10.1

45.2

34.7

49.6

5.6

44.8

44.0

Apr-Jun 11

1504

42.5

14.4

43.0

28.1

45.9

7.5

46.6

38.4

July-Sep 11

1528

37.9

17.6

44.5

20.3

45.4

9.4

45.2

35.9

Oct-Dec 11

1450

36.9

18.5

44.6

18.4

43.5

10.1

46.4

33.4

Jan-Mar 12

1234

38.9

14.1

47.0

24.8

42.3

11.0

46.7

31.3

Apr-Jun 12

39.3

9.8

50.9

29.5

‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic.

Table 3: Assessment & Expectations for Pending Orders

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Below Normal

Above Normal

Normal

Net response

Below Normal

Above Normal

Normal

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

21.1

3.7

75.2

17.4

22.9

3.8

73.4

19.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

17.1

5.6

77.3

11.6

15.2

4.2

80.6

11.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

15.5

6.7

77.8

8.8

12.2

6.5

81.3

5.7

Apr-Jun 10

1092

14.3

7.4

78.3

6.9

12.9

6.4

80.7

6.5

Jul-Sep 10

1403

12.0

6.9

81.1

5.1

11.4

7.3

81.3

4.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

11.6

7.6

80.8

3.9

8.8

7.3

83.9

1.5

Jan-Mar 11

1524

12.5

6.9

80.6

5.5

9.8

8.1

82.1

1.7

Apr-Jun 11

1504

13.3

6.7

80.0

6.5

10.4

6.6

83.0

3.9

Jul-Sep 11

1528

18.0

4.7

77.3

13.3

11.8

7.2

81.0

4.5

Oct-Dec 11

1450

17.5

5.0

77.5

12.6

13.6

6.0

80.4

7.6

Jan-Mar 12

1234

15.9

5.4

78.7

10.5

13.7

6.5

79.8

7.3

Apr-June 12

13.3

4.6

82.1

8.8

Pending Orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic.

Table 4: Assessment & Expectations for Capacity Utilisation

(Percentage responses) #

Parameter

Options

Assessment for Quarter

Expectations for Quarter

Oct-Dec 11

Jan-Mar 12

Jan-Mar 12

April-June 12

Capacity Utilisation (main product)

Increase

26.9

30.0

34.5

30.8

No Change

56.9

56.7

55.3

58.4

Decrease

16.1

13.3

10.2

10.9

Net Response

10.8

16.7

24.3

19.9

Level of Capacity Utilisation (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)

Above normal

12.7

13.0

13.6

12.3

Normal

69.0

71.3

73.8

76.6

Below Normal

18.3

15.7

12.7

11.1

Net Response

-5.6

-2.6

0.9

1.2

Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)

More than adequate

11.3

11.4

12.1

11.3

Adequate

80.2

81.4

80.5

82.0

Less than adequate

8.5

7.2

7.4

6.7

Net Response

2.8

4.3

4.7

4.6

Increase’ in Capacity utilisation is optimistic.

Table 5: Assessment & Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods)

(Percentage responses) #

Parameter

Options

Assessment for Quarter

Expectations for Quarter

Oct-Dec 11

Jan-Mar 12

Jan-Mar 12

Apr-Jun 12

Inventory of raw material

Below average

7.1

7.1

5.0

5.4

Average

78.5

78.9

82.7

84.5

Above average

14.4

14.0

12.3

10.1

Net Response

-7.3

-6.9

-7.3

-4.7

Inventory of Finished goods

Below average

6.3

5.9

5.2

5.3

Average

78.6

79.7

82.8

85.8

Above average

15.1

14.5

12.0

8.9

Net Response

-8.9

-8.6

-6.8

-3.7

Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic

Table 6: Assessment & Expectations for Exports

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

20.9

23.8

56.3

-2.9

20.6

20.5

59

0.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

27.3

18.1

54.6

9.2

27.0

14.5

58.5

12.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

28.9

16.2

54.9

12.7

31.2

11.0

57.8

20.2

Apr-Jun 10

1092

29.1

13.7

57.2

15.3

30.0

11.5

58.5

18.5

Jul-Sep 10

1403

31.8

11.8

56.5

20.0

30.8

10.1

59.1

20.7

Oct-Dec 10

1561

34.4

11.4

54.2

23.1

34.4

8.3

57.3

26.1

Jan-Mar 11

1524

32.1

13.2

54.7

18.9

34.4

8.1

57.5

26.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

31.8

13.6

54.6

18.2

33.4

9.4

57.1

24.0

July-Sep 11

1528

28.7

15.7

56.6

13.1

35.1

9.2

55.7

25.8

Oct-Dec 11

1450

26.8

15.3

57.9

11.5

32.7

10.6

56.8

22.1

Jan-Mar 12

1234

27.8

13.6

58.6

14.2

29.0

10.4

60.6

18.6

Apr-Jun 12

30.1

9.4

60.5

20.7

‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic


Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for Import

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

21.8

14.0

64.2

7.8

17.0

12.4

70.6

4.6

Oct-Dec 09

1256

23.3

10.3

66.5

13.0

21.3

9.8

68.9

11.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

25.5

8.4

66.1

17.1

23.4

6.5

70.1

16.9

Apr-Jun 10

1092

27.7

6.8

65.6

20.9

22.9

5.9

71.2

17.1

Jul-Sep 10

1403

28.6

6.6

64.7

22.0

27.0

5.4

67.6

21.7

Oct-Dec 10

1561

27.3

6.4

66.3

20.9

27.3

5.1

67.6

22.2

Jan-Mar 11

1524

27.0

7.1

65.8

19.9

26.7

5.4

67.9

21.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

25.0

7.4

67.6

17.6

25.1

6.2

68.6

18.9

July-Sep 11

1528

23.3

7.6

69.2

15.7

25.1

6.1

68.9

19.0

Oct-Dec 11

1450

20.8

9.3

69.9

11.6

23.1

6.2

70.7

16.9

Jan-Mar 12

1234

22.5

8.0

69.5

14.4

23.0

7.5

69.4

15.5

Apr-Jun 12

22.4

6.7

70.8

15.7

‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic

Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

14.2

10.1

75.7

4.1

11.5

10.0

78.6

1.5

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.2

7.9

73.9

10.3

15.8

7.0

77.2

8.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

21.0

7.3

71.7

13.7

18.2

6.1

75.6

12.1

Apr-Jun 10

1092

21.7

7.0

71.3

14.7

19.5

5.9

74.7

13.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

25.1

6.3

68.6

18.7

21.8

5.1

73.1

16.8

Oct-Dec 10

1561

24.8

5.4

69.9

19.4

24.7

3.6

71.7

21.0

Jan-Mar 11

1524

24.3

5.6

70.1

18.7

25.0

4.3

70.7

20.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

24.3

6.1

69.6

18.2

23.0

5.6

71.4

17.4

July-Sep 11

1528

22.7

7.1

70.2

15.6

24.0

4.6

71.5

19.4

Oct-Dec 11

1450

18.9

7.6

73.5

11.3

21.7

5.2

73.1

16.5

Jan-Mar 12

1234

19.8

6.9

73.3

12.9

19.3

5.7

75.0

13.6

19.9

5.2

74.9

14.6

‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic

Table 9: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Financial Situation

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Better

Worsen

No change

Net response

Better

Worsen

No change

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

34.3

12.5

53.2

21.8

32.8

12.8

54.4

20.0

Oct-Dec 09

1256

38.8

9.3

51.8

29.5

40.5

7.0

52.5

33.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

42.3

6.5

51.3

35.8

44.3

5.0

50.6

39.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

39.1

6.9

54.0

32.2

41.6

5.3

53.1

36.3

Jul-Sep 10

1403

38.7

8.1

53.2

30.6

39.7

5.6

54.8

34.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

42.8

5.7

51.5

37.1

44.9

5.3

49.7

39.6

Jan-Mar 11

1524

35.7

8.6

55.8

27.1

45.5

4.4

50.1

41.1

Apr-Jun 11

1504

34.5

10.4

55.0

24.1

38.6

5.2

56.1

33.4

July-Sep 11

1528

27.8

16.0

56.2

11.7

37.4

6.8

55.7

30.6

Oct-Dec 11

1450

28.1

16.9

55.0

11.2

35.5

9.2

55.3

26.3

Jan-Mar 12

1234

30.1

11.9

57.8

18.5

35.3

10.2

54.5

25.2

Apr-Jun 12

35.7

8.1

56.2

27.7

Overall financial situation ‘Better’ is optimistic

Table 10: Assessment & Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

31.2

7.4

61.4

23.8

32.3

6.0

61.7

26.3

Oct-Dec 09

1256

35.2

6.4

58.4

28.8

34.7

4.3

61.0

30.4

Jan-Mar 10

1079

35.8

5.3

58.9

30.5

36.8

4.0

59.2

32.7

Apr-Jun 10

1092

34.7

4.8

60.5

29.9

31.9

4.3

63.8

27.7

Jul-Sep 10

1403

35.6

6.3

58.1

29.3

35.2

4.1

60.7

31.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

41.3

4.1

54.6

37.1

38.4

3.6

58.0

34.8

Jan-Mar 11

1524

41.0

4.1

54.9

36.9

40.7

3.0

56.3

37.8

Apr-Jun 11

1504

41.1

5.4

53.5

35.7

37.4

4.4

58.2

32.9

July-Sep 11

1528

36.8

5.7

57.4

31.1

38.7

5.1

56.3

33.6

Oct-Dec 11

1450

38.9

5.7

55.4

33.3

38.4

4.2

57.5

34.2

Jan-Mar 12

1234

40.0

5.1

54.8

34.9

38.0

4.2

57.8

33.8

Apr-Jun 12

36.2

4.3

59.6

31.9

‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic


Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Improve

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Improve

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

28.0

8.8

63.2

19.2

27.0

10.4

62.6

16.6

Oct-Dec 09

1256

30.3

7.2

62.5

23.0

31.7

5.6

62.7

26.1

Jan-Mar 10

1079

32.1

6.4

61.5

25.7

33.7

4.5

61.8

29.2

Apr-Jun 10

1092

32.3

5.9

61.8

26.4

31.2

4.4

64.4

26.8

Jul-Sep 10

1403

32.6

6.0

61.4

26.6

32.9

4.4

62.7

28.5

Oct-Dec10

1561

35.9

5.6

58.4

30.3

35.3

4.0

60.6

31.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

32.1

8.3

59.6

23.8

36.4

4.0

59.6

32.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

30.2

8.7

61.1

21.5

32.6

5.3

62.2

27.3

July-Sep11

1528

24.0

12.0

64.0

12.1

30.0

5.8

64.2

24.2

Oct-Dec 11

1450

24.1

13.7

62.2

10.4

28.7

8.5

62.7

20.2

Jan-Mar 12

1234

26.1

10.3

63.5

15.8

28.2

9.1

62.7

19.0

Apr-Jun 12

29.9

7.0

63.1

22.9

Improvement in Availability of finance is optimism

Table 12: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of External Finance

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Jan-Mar 10*

1079

7.7

23.6

68.7

-15.9

6.8

25.1

68.1

-18.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

7.0

28.9

64.0

-21.9

6.1

26.8

67.1

-20.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

5.0

33.2

61.8

-28.3

5.7

29.0

65.3

-23.3

Oct-Dec10

1561

4.0

37.9

58.1

-33.9

3.8

32.1

64.2

-28.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

3.5

46.0

50.6

-42.5

3.7

35.0

61.3

-31.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

3.5

52.5

44.1

-49.0

3.9

38.9

57.1

-35.0

July-Sep 11

1528

3.5

53.7

42.9

-50.2

4.0

43.7

52.4

-39.7

Oct-Dec 11

1450

2.9

53.4

43.7

-50.6

3.4

44.4

52.2

-41.0

Jan-Mar 12

1234

3.8

41.1

55.1

-37.4

4.1

42.8

53.1

-38.8

Apr-Jun 12

9.9

32.6

57.6

-22.7

#Cost of external finance ‘Decrease’ is optimistic
*this parameter was included from Survey period Jan-Mar 10


Table 13: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of Raw Material

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

8.1

49.8

42.1

-41.7

8.7

35.8

56.5

-27.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

6.3

53.4

40.3

-47.1

5.0

43.4

51.6

-38.4

Jan-Mar 10

1079

2.2

62.3

35.5

-60.2

3.6

47.9

48.5

-44.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

2.5

65.2

32.3

-62.7

2.2

50.8

47.0

-48.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

3.5

61.8

34.7

-58.3

2.7

52.0

45.2

-49.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

2.4

66.3

31.3

-63.9

3.3

52.6

44.1

-49.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

1.7

73.7

24.6

-71.9

2.3

55.9

41.8

-53.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

4.5

70.0

25.6

-65.5

2.5

59.5

38.0

-57.0

July-Sep 11

1528

5.3

63.3

31.4

-58.1

4.8

56.6

38.6

-51.7

Oct-Dec 11

1450

5.1

66.3

28.7

-61.2

3.7

53.4

42.9

-49.7

Jan-Mar 12

1234

3.4

62.7

33.9

-59.4

4.0

54.1

41.9

-50.1

Apr-Jun 12

2.2

51.2

46.5

-49.0

Cost of raw material ‘Decrease’ is optimistic

Table 14: Assessment & Expectations for Selling Price

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

19.4

19.2

61.4

0.2

17.2

17.2

65.6

0

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.6

15.9

65.5

2.6

19.2

13.2

67.6

6.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

24.6

12.2

63.2

12.4

20.7

10.9

68.4

9.8

Apr-Jun 10

1092

29.3

12.0

58.6

17.3

22.4

9.1

68.5

13.3

Jul-Sep 10

1403

28.0

14.2

57.8

13.8

24.4

9.2

66.3

15.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

30.2

10.0

59.8

20.2

25.7

8.7

65.5

17.0

Jan-Mar 11

1524

35.7

9.2

55.1

26.5

26.7

8.1

65.2

18.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

35.0

13.4

51.6

21.5

30.6

7.0

62.4

23.7

July-Sep 11

1528

27.3

16.6

56.1

10.7

29.1

10.7

60.2

18.3

Oct-Dec 11

1450

24.6

15.7

59.7

8.9

26.8

10.8

62.4

16.0

Jan-Mar 12

1234

25.1

11.6

63.3

13.5

25.0

10.3

64.7

14.7

Apr-Jun 12

26.3

7.3

66.4

19.0

Selling price ‘Increase’ is optimistic

Table 15: Assessment & Expectations for Profit Margin

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

16.9

32.0

51.1

-15.1

16.0

29.4

54.5

-13.4

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.1

28.0

54.0

-9.9

20.2

23.0

56.8

-2.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

21.7

24.6

53.9

-2.9

21.1

20.1

58.8

1.1

Apr-Jun 10

1092

20.2

25.0

54.9

-4.8

22.1

18.9

59.0

3.2

Jul-Sep 10

1403

21.3

23.9

54.8

-2.5

22.2

19.1

58.7

3.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

22.7

23.1

54.2

-0.4

25.2

16.1

58.7

9.2

Jan-Mar 11

1524

20.8

25.1

54.1

-4.3

25.6

17.2

57.2

8.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

18.2

28.1

53.6

-9.9

22.2

18.4

59.4

3.8

Jul-Sep 11

1528

15.2

32.3

52.5

-17.1

22.0

19.5

58.5

2.5

Oct-Dec 11

1450

15.2

32.5

52.4

-17.3

20.3

21.9

57.8

-1.6

Jan-Mar 12

1234

17.5

28.7

53.8

-11.3

20.1

23.1

56.8

-2.9

Apr-Jun 12

20.4

21.6

58.0

-1.2

‘Increase’ in Profit margin is optimism


Table 16: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Business Situation

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Better

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Better

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

39.3

13.0

47.7

26.3

38.8

14.6

46.7

24.2

Oct-Dec 09

1256

46.0

10.1

43.9

36.0

47.2

7.4

45.4

39.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

50.5

7.4

42.1

43.1

50.4

5.5

44.2

44.9

Apr-Jun 10

1092

47.8

7.1

45.0

40.7

47.3

6.1

46.6

41.2

Jul-Sep 10

1403

46.7

8.0

45.3

38.7

47.6

6.2

46.2

41.5

Oct-Dec 10

1561

51.4

5.5

43.1

45.9

52.5

5.1

42.4

47.4

Jan-Mar 11

1524

46.0

7.4

46.6

38.6

54.2

4.1

41.8

50.1

Apr-Jun11

1504

42.8

10.1

47.1

32.6

47.0

5.6

47.4

41.4

Jul-Sep 11

1528

34.1

15.4

50.5

18.7

46.6

6.8

46.6

39.8

Oct-Dec 11

1450

35.2

17.5

47.3

17.7

43.1

8.0

48.9

35.2

Jan-Mar 12

1234

37.8

11.3

50.9

26.5

43.6

10.0

46.5

33.6

Apr-Jun 12

43.0

8.1

49.0

34.6

Overall Business Situation ‘Better’ is optimistic

Table-17: Business Expectation Index

Quarter

ASSESSMENT

EXPECTATIONS

Index

Change over previous quarter

Change over previous year

Index

Change over previous quarter

Change over previous year

Jan-Mar 04

121.4

1.7

3.0

122.2

0.2

2.6

Apr-Jun 04

118.4

-3.0

8.6

121.5

-0.7

3.7

Jul-Sep 04

116.9

-1.5

2.6

120.0

-1.5

2.9

Oct-Dec 04

122.0

5.1

2.2

121.5

1.5

-0.6

Jan-Mar 05

122.5

0.5

1.1

123.2

1.7

1.0

Apr-Jun 05

117.5

-5.0

-0.9

120.7

-2.5

-0.8

Jul-Sep 05

114.9

-2.6

-2.0

119.6

-1.1

-0.4

Oct-Dec 05

124.3

9.4

2.3

122.7

3.1

1.2

Jan-Mar 06

120.7

-3.6

-1.8

125.7

3.0

2.5

Apr-Jun 06

121.8

1.1

4.3

120.5

-5.2

-0.2

Jul-Sep 06

120.7

-1.1

5.8

126.5

6.0

6.9

Oct-Dec 06

123.9

3.2

-0.4

125.3

-1.2

2.6

Jan-Mar 07

127.7

3.8

7.0

126.5

1.2

0.8

Apr-Jun 07

115.8

-11.9

-6.0

127.5

1.0

7.0

Jul-Sep 07

118.9

3.1

-1.8

121.1

-6.4

-5.4

Oct-Dec 07

115.9

-3.0

-8.0

124.4

3.3

-0.9

Jan-Mar 08

122.8

6.9

-4.9

118.6

-5.8

-7.9

Apr-Jun 08

116.2

-6.6

0.4

123.2

4.6

-4.3

Jul-Sep 08

113.4

-2.8

-5.5

122.1

-1.1

1.0

Oct-Dec 08

104.1

-9.3

-11.8

118.9

-3.2

-5.5

Jan-Mar 09

82.6

-21.5

-40.2

111.9

-7.0

-6.7

Apr-Jun 09

99.4

16.8

-16.8

96.4

-15.5

-26.8

Jul-Sep 09

107.2

7.8

-6.2

109.9

13.5

-12.2

Oct-Dec 09

112.8

5.6

8.7

116.4

6.5

-2.5

Jan-Mar 10

118.5

5.7

35.9

120.6

4.2

8.7

Apr-Jun 10

115.9

-2.6

16.5

119.8

-0.8

23.4

Jul-Sep 10

119.0

3.1

11.8

118.8

-1.0

8.9

Oct-Dec 10

122.8

3.8

10.0

126.5

7.7

10.1

Jan-Mar 11

122.0

-0.8

3.5

125.9

-0.6

5.3

Apr-Jun 11

116.3

-5.7

0.4

121.9

-4.0

2.1

Jul-Sep 11

109.4

-6.93

-9.67

121.5

-0.4

2.7

Oct-Dec 11

110.1

0.8

-12.7

118.8

-2.7

-7.7

Jan-Mar 12

114.9

4.8

-7.1

117.2

-1.6

-8.7

Apr-Jun 12

116.8

-0.4

-5.1


Table 18 : Assessment for important business parameters according to industry-wise of responding companies

(Net response in per cent)

 

Production

Order books

Availability of Finance

Cost of raw material

Cost of finance

Profit Margin

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Food products

42.6

41.2

33.0

31.2

13.1

22.4

-56.9

-50.5

-46.2

-25.0

-10.1

-3.0

Textiles

-1.6

7.5

-17.1

0.0

-6.4

-3.1

-35.8

-44.7

-53.8

-42.1

-40.1

-26.7

Basic Metals & Metal products

18.1

29.4

13.5

21.7

9.3

17.1

-65.0

-61.1

-51.7

-39.0

-17.1

-5.6

Electrical machinery

40.6

43.2

38.2

37.5

15.6

22.5

-66.7

-62.5

-46.3

-34.1

-11.6

-17.8

Other Machinery (Non-electrical machinery) & Apparatus

22.0

36.2

19.5

22.6

10.2

17.7

-67.8

-66.0

-44.2

-39.1

-13.0

-18.9

Transport Equipment

30.9

49.4

23.3

37.5

15.8

16.5

-63.2

-60.8

-53.8

-43.8

-15.8

-6.3

Fertilisers

43.8

24.0

28.0

16.7

37.5

19.2

-71.9

-32.0

-50.0

-8.0

6.3

0.0

Pharmaceuticals & Medicines

38.4

43.4

28.4

33.3

9.2

10.8

-68.7

-64.6

-59.8

-39.7

-10.1

-10.8

Basic Chemicals

25.0

35.8

25.0

30.9

20.0

15.5

-60.0

-62.9

-47.5

-37.2

-15.3

-11.6

Rubber & Plastic products

25.3

31.4

19.2

22.1

14.1

17.1

-50.0

-69.6

-56.8

-41.2

-24.1

-12.7

Paper & Paper products

22.0

44.4

5.6

40.6

4.9

25.0

-78.0

-52.8

-50.0

-55.6

-34.1

0.0

Cement

45.5

37.5

41.4

35.0

2.9

29.2

-88.6

-62.5

-57.1

-25.0

-8.6

12.5

Wood & wood products

12.5

46.7

18.8

21.4

10.5

25.0

-72.2

-68.8

-52.9

-37.5

-10.5

-12.5

Diversified companies

45.0

57.9

50.0

47.1

45.0

15.0

-65.0

-75.0

-44.4

-47.4

10.5

0.0

Other industries

26.2

27.5

21.2

26.8

9.2

23.5

-66.7

-64.4

-49.2

-31.7

-13.8

-5.8

All Industries

25.3

33.1

18.4

24.8

10.4

15.8

-61.2

-59.4

-50.6

-37.4

-17.3

-11.3


Table 19: Assessment for important business parameters according to size (PUC-wise & Annual production-wise) of responding companies

(Net response in per cent)

 

Production

Order books

Availability of Finance

Cost of raw material

Cost of finance

Profit Margin

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

Rd56

Rd57

PUC-Wise

Small

19.1

23.9

14.2

15.0

10.9

5.8

-65.9

-68.6

-36.9

-29.8

-18.2

-21.1

Medium

24.9

33.8

17.6

25.5

10.6

18.9

-60.8

-57.3

-51.8

-39.0

-18.4

-10.0

Big

41.9

47.9

38.3

43.9

7.0

1.4

-57.6

-63.0

-57.0

-35.3

0.0

-2.7

Annual Prod.-Wise

Small

19.4

24.3

14.9

16.8

8.7

13.0

-63.3

-65.2

-40.7

-30.8

-21.8

-18.3

Medium

27.8

44.1

20.5

32.9

14.5

13.6

-59.1

-51.4

-55.0

-39.1

14.8

0.0

Big

35.6

44.1

22.6

32.9

2.1

13.6

-61.6

-51.4

-66.0

-39.1

-11.2

0.0

Smaller companies (annual production less than `. 1 billion /PUC less than ` 10 million).
Medium companies (annual production between ` 1 billion to ` 10 billion /PUC between ` 10 million ` 1 billion)
Big companies (annual production above ` 10 billion / PUC above ` 1 billion)


Table 20: Constraints for attaining the normal production level Industry-wise

 

Production Constraint

NO

YES

Count

Per cent

Count

Per cent

Food products

46

46.5

53

53.5

Textiles

54

33.3

108

66.7

Basic Metals & Metal products

83

45.6

99

54.4

Electrical machinery

44

48.4

47

51.6

Other Machinery & Apparatus

73

51.0

70

49.0

Transport Equipment

35

43.8

45

56.3

Fertilisers

15

57.7

11

42.3

Pharmaceutical & Medicines

56

67.5

27

32.5

Basic Chemicals

58

59.8

39

40.2

Rubber & Plastic products

35

49.3

36

50.7

Paper & Paper products

18

50.0

18

50.0

Cement

14

58.3

10

41.7

Wood & wood products

11

68.8

5

31.3

Diversified companies

16

80.0

4

20.0

Other industries

60

57.7

53

53.5

All Industries

618

50.1

616

49.9


*Prepared in the Division of Enterprise Surveys of Department of Statistics and Information Management. The previous article on the subject based on the 56th survey round (October-December 2011) was published in February 2012 Bulletin.

1Net Response is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting an increase and that of reporting decrease.


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