9.73 The second pillar, the supervisory
review process, is intended to ensure that a bank’s capital position is consistent
with its overall risk profile. According to the Committee, the review process
should include the principles that: (i) banks need to operate with capital above
the regulatory minimum and supervisor should be able to require them to hold
capital in excess of that minimum; and (ii) the supervisors should seek to intervene
at an early stage to prevent capital from falling below prudent levels.
9.74 The last pillar is intended
to encourage banks to disclose information in order to enhance the role of market
participants in monitoring banks. This would also compel banks to be more vigilant
as far as various disclosures are concerned. To that end, the Committee has
proposed that banks disclose information, inter alia, on their components
of regulatory capital, risk exposures and risk-based capital ratios computed
in accordance with the Accord’s methodology.
9.75 BCBS has adopted a consultative
approach so as to make the new capital adequacy framework as widely acceptable
as possible. After receiving a significant response to the Second Consultative
Document, the Third Consultative Document was issued in 2003 and the comments
received on them are being considered.
9.76 The literature on the optimal
regulation in the presence of asymmetry of information shows that incentive
compatibility calls for a menu approach instead of a ‘one size fits all’ rule.
The Committee’s approach appears to indicate a move in that direction. In addition
to the standardised approach, it also allows for internal ratings based (IRB)
approach, which recognises that banks are better informed about their risks
than regulators and can make use of that informational advantage. For measurement
of operational risk also, a menu approach has been adopted. Though the details
of the Accord are yet to be finalised, it would be at this stage apposite to
discuss some implications of the broad framework (Box IX.5).
Box IX.5
What does Basel II Hold for the future?
The New Accord is expected to be
implemented within G-10 countries from end 2006 and is expected to encompass
internationally active banks, and other significant banks as national supervisors
deem appropriate. Outside the G-10 countries, the national supervisors have
been provided the flexibility to develop their own timetable and approach depending
on their perception of benefits of the new framework for the domestic banking
system. Basel II is expected to make the capital allocation more risk-sensitive.
Use of supervisory oversight with market discipline would broad base and reinforce
the supervisory framework and financial stability. While the Accord aims at
leaving the total capital requirement for an average risk portfolio broadly
unchanged, banks with a greater risk appetite will find the capital requirements
increasing, and vice versa.
The New Accord provides a flexible
structure in which banks, will adopt subject to supervisory review approaches
which best fit their level of sophistication and their risk profile. Depending
on their risk management capabilities, the banks would have the flexibility
to upgrade from the standardised approach to internal ratings based (IRB) approach
for measurement of credit risk. Under the standardised approach, the risk buckets
have been aligned more closely to the underlying risk, and banks and corporates
can now receive a more favourable risk weight than their sovereign. Two options
under IRB approach - foundation and advanced - have been provided so that the
IRB approach is now capable of being used by many more banks. A menu of approaches
has also been provided for measurement of operational risk. The New Accord allows
banks to use ratings provided by external credit rating agencies.
Although the initial focus of Basel
II is primarily on internationally active banks, its underlying principles are
intended to be suitable for application to banks of varying levels of complexity
and sophistication. Basel II will be applied on a consolidated basis to internationally
active banks to preserve the integrity of capital in banks with subsidiaries
by eliminating double gearing. The scope of application of the Accord will be
extended to include, on a fully consolidated basis, any holding company that
is the parent entity within a banking group to ensure that it captures the risk
of the whole banking group. A three-year transitional period for applying full
sub-consolidation will be provided for those countries where this is not currently
a requirement. The New Accord would require increased cooperation between supervisors,
especially for the cross-border supervision of complex international banking
groups. The Accord Implementation Group, set up by the BCBS, is developing a
set of principles to facilitate closer practical cooperation and information
exchange among supervisors. Moreover, supervisors would have to test that individual
banks are adequately capitalised on a stand-alone basis to ensure that capital
recognised in capital adequacy measures is readily available for their depositors.
The complexity and sophistication
of the proposals, however, may restrict universal application of the New Accord
in the emerging markets, where the banks continue to be the major segment of
financial intermediation. The New Accord would involve shift in direct supervisory
focus away to the implementation issues. Moreover, banks and the supervisors
would be required to invest large resources in upgrading their technology and
human resources to meet the minimum standards. The increasing reliance on external
rating agencies in the regulatory process may undermine the initiatives of banks
in enhancing their risk management policies and practices and internal control
systems. The supervisors would find it difficult to verify the accuracy of a
bank’s internal rating system.
The Reserve Bank has pointed out
that the minimum standards set even for the internal rating based foundation
are complex and beyond the reach of many banks. Besides, the line of demarcation
between the six broad classes of exposures (viz., corporate, sovereigns,
banks, retail, project finance and equity) could often be thin. As such, without
recognising the institutional framework and geographical spreads such segregation
could pose serious implementation problems. The New Accord could also enhance
the minimum regulatory capital, especially for banks in developing economies,
due to reasons, such as (i) withdrawal of uniform risk weight of 0 per cent
on all sovereign claims (OECD and non-OECD); (ii) explicit capital charge; or
(iii) imposition of higher risk weights on claims on certain high risk exposures
like venture capital or private equity (RBI, 2001).
Another adverse impact of the New
Accord would be reduction in lending by internationally active banks in developing
countries due to relative predominance of borrowers with sub-BBB ratings as
compared to the industrialised countries. Procyclicality of capital requirements
and ratings would lead to higher capital requirement and consequently, lower
credit supply during recessions and vice versa during booms, resulting
in larger amplitude of business cycles as a country progressively adopts the
New Accord (Ray, 2002). Moreover, with increasing financial and economic integration,
the vulnerabilities and cycle swings could become more synchronised and more
pronounced. Basel II has recognised the existence of procyclicality in its capital
requirements and has tried to take care of it partly through flattening of risk-weight
curve, introduction of stress tests and provision for buffer capital over the
minimum requirement under Pillar I.
Perceptions about the applicability
of the New Accord vary among the developed countries as well. European regulators
see Basel II, like Basel I, as a global standard to be applied to all banks.
On the other hand, American regulators, reportedly, intend to apply the new
rules to fewer than a dozen of their banks. Thus, most of the American banks
may enjoy the advantage of theoretically lower cost of making loans.
9.77 Securities markets are a major
component of the financial sector and as such play a central role in the stability
of the financial sector. They offer an alternative source of intermediation,
enhancing efficiency through competition and also reducing the pressure on the
banking sector. Sound regulation and effective supervision is essential for
maintenance of investor confidence and maintenance of macroeconomic stability.
Development of standards and codes for the securities market under FSAP has
been done by the International Organisation of Securities Commission (IOSCO).
IOSCO is an association of securities regulatory agencies, self-regulatory organisations
and international institutions, with the IMF and the World Bank as affiliate
members. Endorsed in 1998, the IOSCO Principles cover such areas as the regulator,
enforcement, issuers, market intermediaries, collective investment schemes and
secondary markets.
9.78 The IOSCO Objectives and Principles
of Securities Regulation set a standard against which a country’s practice of
regulation and supervision of securities market is assessed. Individual countries
are themselves taking steps to develop markets, review their ongoing regulatory
and supervisory procedures and adopt international best practices. Countries
are also making effor ts to strengthen the legal environment in which the financial
systems are operating. Appreciable steps have also been taken to improve bankruptcy
procedures.
III. INDIA’S PERSPECTIVE ON INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
9.79 The orderly functioning of
the global markets is crucial both for short-term stability and sustainable
growth of emerging markets. The crises of the 1990s have amply demonstrated
that deficiencies in international financial architecture may have several ramifications
for other countries even if they themselves continue to pursue sound macroeconomic
and financial policies. Therefore, an appropriate international financial infrastructure
that can ensure global financial stability is of particular relevance to an
emerging market like India.
9.80 As a member of various international
groups – the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) at the IMF,
Development Committee of the World Bank, the Bank for International Settlements
(BIS), the Group of 20 and the Working Groups set up by the Financial Stability
Forum and various other organisations, India has been playing an active role
in the discussions on the international financial architecture and related issues.
9.81 India is one of the founding
members of G-20, which was created in September 1999 to establish an informal
mechanism for dialogue among systemically important countries within the framework
of Bretton-Woods institutional system. The G-20 aims at promoting international
financial stability. India became the first developing country to assume the
leadership of G-20 in March 2002. The G-20 Deputies and Ministerial Meetings
held in July 2002 and November 2002, respectively, in New Delhi deliberated
on a range of issues concerning international financial architecture. India
has also been actively involved with the Group on Joint Task Force on Securities
Settlement Systems constituted by CPSS, the International Organisation of Securities
Commissions (IOSCO), Core principles Liaison Group (CPLG) constituted by the
BCBS, and the joint IMF-World Bank FSAP.
9.82 India has been closely monitoring
the developments on all aspects of the new international financial architecture
and has been fine-tuning and strengthening the internal crisis prevention and
management frameworks. India is also one of the first members to subscribe to
the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) through which information, relevant
for assessment of macroeconomic stability is being disseminated regularly. India
voluntarily agreed for an FSAP. After the completion of the programme in 2001,
India’s internal frameworks for assessing financial system stability have been
validated.
9.83 In addition to being closely
associated with several international standards setting bodies, India was a
part of the Task Force on the Implementation of Standards and par ticipated
in the Joint Committee Group meeting of the FSF. The Task Force was set up to
explore key issues relating to standards, codes and core principles and consider
the strategy for fostering implementation of international standards relevant
for a sound financial system. The Reserve Bank was also represented at the Follow
Up Group on Incentives for Implementation of Standards instituted by the FSF
following submission of the Task Force Report to ascertain how various elements
of market and official incentives could best reinforce one another within the
framework of the overall strategy to foster implementation of standards.
9.84 In the context of increasing
uncertainty associated with capital flows as evident from several crises in
emerging and transition economies, the major issues pertaining to international
financial infrastructure including the choice of exchange regime, foreign exchange
reserves, management of capital flows, strengthening of financial systems with
appropriate institutions, and appropriate supervisory and regulatory framework,
international transparency codes and standards have assumed considerable significance
for developing economies, in general, and India, in particular (Jalan, 1999).
9.85 Keeping in view the deficiencies
of international financial architecture and risks associated with globalisation
and financial integration, India has been following a gradual and cautious approach
towards liberalisation of the financial and external sectors. Conceptually,
the Indian approach to financial sector reforms is based on five principles,
viz., cautious and proper sequencing; mutually reinforcing measures;
complementarity between reforms in the banking sector and changes in fiscal,
external and monetary policies; developing financial infrastructure; and developing
financial markets (Reddy, 2000c and 2000d). While this approach is at variance
with the ‘big-bang’ approach pursued in several countries, the gradualist approach
is credited with the advantage of enhancing macro stability, whilst at the same
time, fostering the microeconomic linkages.
9.86 In pursuing financial and
external sector reforms, India has emphasised on the process of institution
building. The broad strategy of institution building process, especially in
the financial sector, encompasses strengthening of existing institutions including
banks and financial institutions to adapt to market conditions and enable such
institutions to operate in tune with market pressures. Institutions in the private
sector are encouraged to foster competition while ensuring adequate safeguards
in terms of appropriate regulatory and legal framework and monitoring mechanism.
Prudential regulations and supervisory standards have been put in place in line
with international standards to ensure safety and soundness of institutions
and markets. Transparency and accountability in operations were introduced to
enhance the credibility of the banking system (RBI, 2003a).
9.87 Recognising the impor tance
of self assessment, the Reserve Bank appointed a Standing Committee on International
Financial Standards and Codes (Chairman: Y.V.Reddy) in December 1999, in consultation
with the Government in order to:
(i) identify and monitor developments
in global standards and codes being evolved in the context of international
developments; (ii) consider the applicability of these standards and codes to
the Indian financial system; and (iii) chalk out a road map for aligning India’s
standards and practices to the evolving international standards. In 2000, the
Standing Committee constituted ten Advisory Groups comprising non-official experts
in the area of banking supervision, bankruptcy laws, corporate governance, data
dissemination, fiscal transparency, insurance regulation, accounting and auditing,
monetary and financial transparency, payment and settlement system and securities
market regulation to examine the feasibility and time frame of compliance with
international best practices. An internal Group on Market Integrity subsequently
covered issues relating to money laundering. Reports of the Advisory Groups
were placed in public domain for wider discussion. The approach followed by
India was based on the internationally acclaimed systematic three-step process
of identification of standard and codes, in-depth assessment and mapping a comprehensive
course of possible actions for achieving the best practices. A synthesis report
was prepared to encompass the major observations and recommendations of the
Advisory Groups, to identify the inter-linkages amongst different standards,
and to provide an overarching view while listing the required specific legal
reforms and to identify the follow-up action required by the concerned regulatory
agencies and other authorities. The spirit of the Indian approach could be summarised
as follows: 'The process in India is an exercise that aims at understanding
and comprehending various standards and codes in terms of rationale, technical
complexities, institutional and legal requirements and the immediacy and relevance
at the present stage of development and institutional structure. Second, it
is intended to result in getting a fair view of the country’s status with reference
to standards. Third, this would enable getting an idea about the necessary steps
required to move closer to the adherence of standards and codes. Fourth, it
would sensitise the regulatory authorities, agencies and institutions about
the priority areas of action' (Reddy, 2001).
9.88 In respect of standards and
codes, India has been stressing the importance of ensuring that the manner in
which these standards are developed and monitored does not degenerate into categorising
countries as performers and non-performers. Such categorisation could entail
adverse market implications for these countries. The IMF (along with other international
bodies) should continue to work towards developing the best practices but only
rely on market based incentives to encourage voluntary compliance. Given the
low base, from which the developing countries have to start for complying with
these norms, only a gradual approach could work.
9.89 In the area of transparency,
the Reserve Bank has been at the forefront among national monetary authorities
in terms of disclosure practices. The Reserve Bank publishes daily data on a
number of variables such as exchange rates, forward premia, foreign exchange
turnover and weekly data on movements in foreign exchange reserves in the Weekly
Statistical Supplement (WSS) of its Bulletin with a time lag of one week. Moreover,
data on the Reserve Bank’s purchases and sales in the foreign exchange market
along with outstanding forward liabilities on reserves etc., are published
in the Reserve Bank of India Bulletin with a time lag of one month. The Reserve
Bank is also disclosing the details of its contingent liabilities, income earned,
balances in foreign exchange fluctuation reserves account and the exchange equalisation
accounts. India is among the 50 countries, which have adopted the SDDS template
for publication of detailed data on foreign exchange reserves.
9.90 In the area of financial sector,
wide ranging reforms have been initiated. In the first phase of reform, initiated
under the recommendations of the Committee on the Financial System (Chairman:
M. Narasimham) in 1992, regulations and laws which were coming in the way of
development of a sound and competitive banking system were removed. This included,
progressive reduction of Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio
(SLR), interest rate deregulation, introduction of capital to risk weighted
asset system in line with international standards, introduction of objective
criterion of income recognition, asset classification and provisioning, enhancing
transparency in financial statements and autonomy measures for public sector
banks. The second phase of reforms, based on the recommendations of the Committee
on Banking Sector Reforms (Chairman: M. Narasimham) in 1998, which is currently
underway, relates to introduction of sophisticated financial instruments and
facilitating consolidation and rationalisation of banking system. The main reforms
undertaken include increasing the CRAR from 8 per cent to 9 per cent, enhancing
the provisioning requirement, bringing the norm for asset classification at
par with the international practice and compliance with international accounting
standards.
9.91 The central plank in strengthening
the financial sector and improving the functioning of financial markets is a
set of prudential norms aimed at imparting strength to banks and financial institutions
as well as greater accountability and market discipline. These norms include
not only capital adequacy, asset classification and provisioning but also accounting
standards, exposure and disclosure norms, investment, risk management and asset-liability
management guidelines. There has been considerable progress in the implementation
of risk management systems although there is a need for substantial upgradation
of management information systems, preparation of contingency plans and stress
testing. Internal systems need to be developed further for quantifying and monitoring
operational risk. Efforts are on strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory
framework and achieving international best practices in banking supervision.
In recent years, there has been a shift in emphasis from micro-regulation to
macro-management, supported by a tightening of prudential norms and improvements
in the functioning of the financial markets (Jalan, 2002). Banks are being encouraged
to improve the reliability and robustness of their risk management, management
information and supervisory reporting systems. A scheme of prompt corrective
action based on early warning triggers is being developed as a supervisory tool.
The Reserve Bank and the Government have initiated a wide range of legal reforms
to enable the regulatory and supervisory regime to keep pace with advancements
in information and communication technology. The envisaged reforms relate to
electronic cheques, cheque truncation, securitisation and reconstruction of
financial assets, the payment system and money laundering. In respect of the
financial institutions, the Reserve Bank has been in favour of divesting all
or part of its holdings to mitigate the conflict of interest that could potentially
arise in regulating the entities (Jalan, 2002).
9.92 The Reserve Bank of India
has generally welcomed the proposed Basel II norms. Since Basel II would be
implemented initially on internationally active banks and other significant
banks as the national supervisors may deem fit, a precise definition of an internationally
active bank is imperative for ensuring competitive equality and consistency
of application of various requirements. The Reserve bank has suggested to BCBS
that all banks with cross-border business exceeding 20 to 25 per cent of their
total business may be defined as internationally active banks. Second, in view
of greater probability of contagion and systemic risk inherent in cross holding
of capital, a material limit (up to 10 per cent of the total capital) on cross-holdings
of capital and other regulatory investments may be prescribed and any excess
investments over and above the limit would be deducted from total capital. Third,
risk weighting of banks should be de-linked from the credit rating of sovereigns
in which they are incorporated. Fourth, supervisors are neither equipped nor
competent to identify whether the External Credit Assessment Institutions (ECAIs)
are using unsolicited ratings to put pressure on entities to obtain solicited
ratings and hence cannot decide on their suitability for capital adequacy purpose.
Fifth, while internationally active banks in emerging economies may initially
be required to follow the Standardised Approach, they may be allowed to use
the internal ratings for assigning preferential risk weights on certain types
of exposures, after validation of the internal rating systems by national supervisors.
Sixth, there is a strong case for revisiting the risk weights assigned to sovereign
exposures when the exposures are aggregated as a portfolio which enjoy the benefits
of diversification similar to the approach adopted for retail procedures. Lastly,
the capital charge for specific risk in the banking and trading books should
be consistent to avoid regulatory arbitrages (RBI, 2003b).
9.93 A set of 'Core Principles
for Systemically Important Systems' to promote safe and efficient payment
systems worldwide was developed under the aegis of the BIS in 2001. The Reserve
Bank has been taking steps towards achieving these international best practices
as part of the overall reform in the financial system.
9.94 One of the guiding principles
behind the reforms in the payment and settlement systems of the country has
been the need to provide for safe, secure and efficient systems. The Reserve
Bank has strived to provide systems which are compliant with the Core Principles
for Deferred Net Settlement Systems. As a first step, the Reserve Bank had identified
the Systemically Important Payment Systems, which have the propensity for systemic
risks. These include, among others, inter-bank clearing, high value clearing,
government securities clearing and settlement and foreign exchange clearing
apart from the Main/MICR clearing. The introduction of screen based trading
in Government securities following the delivery versus payment (DvP)
II model in the form of the Negotiated Dealing System (NDS), was a milestone
in this regard. The commencement of foreign exchange clearing by the Clearing
Corporation of India Ltd. aimed at net settlement of the foreign exchange transactions.
This is a major step forward, which has brought about more efficiency and safety.
The Reserve Bank has also embarked upon the introduction of a Real Time Gross
Settlement (RTGS) System for settlement of inter-bank and customer related funds
transfers on a real time mode. The Reserve Bank is also in active deliberation
with the CPSS-IOSCO Task Force for laying down sound practices for central counterparties.
These initiatives would result in payment and settlement systems being at par
with international standards.
9.95 There has been considerable
thinking on corporate governance issues recently in India. A number of committees
and Advisory groups including, among others, the Kumaramangalam Birla Committee,
the Advisory Group on Corporate Governance (Chairman: R. H. Patil) and the Committee
on Audit and Corporate Governance (Chairman: Naresh Chandra) framed codes for
corporates. The Advisory Group on Banking Supervision (Chairman: M. S. Verma),
the Advisory Group on Corporate Governance (Chairman: R. H. Patil) and the Consultative
Group of Directors of Banks/ FIs (Chairman: A. S. Ganguly) have made wide ranging
recommendations relating to corporate governance both in respect of corporate
firms and financial institutions in India. While several recommendations of
these Committees/ Groups have already been implemented, others are under consideration
of the authorities.
9.96 Opening up of the economy
has also necessitated reforms in the debt markets in India. The Reserve Bank
took on the responsibility of developing the Government securities market. The
strategy adopted by the Reserve Bank was to set up institutions and then divest
its holdings as the market matured to avoid the problems of moral hazard of
the lender of last resort and the conflict between ownership and regulation
and supervision. The system of Primary Dealers (PDs) was adopted from advanced
countries that used it to widen and deepen markets. To widen the market and
infuse foreign funds, foreign institutional investors were allowed to invest
in Government dated securities. Recently, the Government securities market was
thrown open to retail investors through the introduction of screen-based trading.
The Reserve Bank is also giving unstinted support to development of the technological
infrastructure in the financial markets for ensuring greater efficiency and
transparency in operations as well as risk free settlement.
9.97 In the capital market, reform
measures have focused on regulatory effectiveness, boosting competitive conditions,
reducing information asymmetries, mitigating transaction costs and controlling
of speculation in the securities market. Capital Issues (Control) Act, 1947
was repealed in 1992 paving the way for market forces to play its role in the
determination of price of issue and allocation of resources for competing uses.
The Indian capital market was opened to foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
in 1992. In order to provide greater transparency, anonymity, and lower transaction
costs, the ‘open outcry’ system prevalent earlier, was replaced with ‘screen-based
trading’. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been entrusted
with considerable regulatory powers to ensure fair play. The National Stock
Exchange (NSE) was incorporated in 1992. In order to ensure free and speedy
transferability of securities, the Depositories Act, 1996 was enacted enabling
electronic settlement of securities. Over the last few years, several measures
have been taken to deepen and widen the foreign exchange market so as to provide
the market participants to undertake foreign exchange transactions with reduced
uncertainty (see Chapter VII).
IV. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE:
AREA OF FURTHER REFORMS
9.98 As has been discussed in the
foregoing sections, the under pinnings of the evolving international architecture
hinge on various issues such as adherence to globally accepted standards and
codes, equitable sharing of burden between the private creditors and the sovereign
debtors, effective surveillance, adequate transparency, and effective disclosure
practices. However, it should be recognised that the changes in the international
financial order is reflective of the underlying changes in the global financial
system. Here, an important issue arises relating to the speed of adjustment
of the global order to independent changes in the global financial system and
the recognition that such changes represent a continuous process. Thus, there
cannot be any 'straight-jacketed' approach towards reforming the existing
financial architecture. Moreover, the adoption of the new initiatives by the
sovereigns for debt restructuring, both in terms of content and timing should
be guided by the fundamental premise of voluntarity as reflected in specific
country situations. In recognition of such basic principles, there are some
areas where further reforms are called for. They could be broadly divided into
two categories, viz., (i) reform of the multilateral financial institutions,
especially the IMF; and (ii) other reforms.
Reform of the Multilateral Financial
Institutions
9.99 The role of financial assistance
for countries facing exogenous shocks can hardly be overemphasised, given the
fact that these shocks can have negative impact on developing countries’ growth,
macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability and poverty ratios. The impressive
gains made by developing countries in recent years can be eroded considerably
when they face such exogenous shocks. The IMF has taken steps to include a systematic
focus on surveillance and fund assistance programmes towards tackling the adverse
effects of exogenous shocks, with a view to reducing response delays. The recent
initiatives to strengthen the existing instruments with the Fund [e.g.,
Emergency Natural Disaster Assistance, Compensatory Financing Facility (CFF),
Stand by credit tranches, and augmentation of Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
(PRGF) programmes] are welcome. However, there is a clear need to establish
a broad menu of instruments, and apply the appropriate instrument depending
on the nature of the shock, based on country-specific requirements. Sufficient
flexibility is needed on the part of the multilateral agencies to meet the financing
and adjustment needs of low income countries affected by exogenous shocks. Enhanced
financing may be warranted depending on the intensity of shocks (Reddy, 2003b).
9.100 The evolving debate for reform
in the international financial architecture has sharply brought into focus the
need for reform in the structure of the international financial institutions,
particularly the IMF. The debate on the need for reform of the IMF is basically
centered around the issues of (i) surveillance and governance of the IMF, involving
the need for change in the present quota formula so as to adequately represent
the interests of the emerging market economies and adequacy of Fund resources;
(ii) the role of the IMF in the context of a Lender of Last Resort as was suggested
in the Meltzer’s Report (2000); (iii) the role of IMF conditionality; and (iv)
the policy with respect to Fund lending in arrears and its implications for
enforcing a more orderly debt restructuring mechanism.
9.101 In this context, Reddy (2003b)
aptly pointed out: 'As regards strengthening of surveillance, we have come
to a stage when we have all the tools available, but there are still doubts
about their effectiveness for a variety of reasons. We should recognise that
origins of crises in the past were also in the industrial countries and advanced
financial centres leading to sudden capital flow reversals. While markets have
started to learn to discriminate among countries, there is still a long way
to go'. Recognising that in surveillance, the Fund has a significant role
in building confidence of both borrowers and lenders, which is important for
an orderly market behaviour, several issues, including suggestions to improve
the efficacy of the surveillance mechanism, have been raised. These include:
(i) the vulnerability assessment exercise for the emerging market economies
needs to be improved; (ii) early warning system models today are far from perfect
and suffer from high false-to-signal ratios; (iii) noting that the IMF management
has proposed an even handed approach to the Fund’s surveillance, the fundamental
question relates to what purpose it serves and whom it is meant for; (iv) given
that the objective is no doubt to identify vulnerabilities and pre-empt crises
from occurring or minimizing severity of such crises, when they occur, some
clarity and transparency about the target of surveillance would be in order.
It has also been emphasised that the Fund has to take a view on whether the
Fund’s assessment is meant for national governments in its role as a confidential
advisor, or for the market players who in any case rely on alternative avenues
for assessing publicly available information (Reddy, 2003b).
9.102 In recent years, there has
been a growing realisation that the finances available from the IMF would not
be sufficient to meet the requirement if most of the member countries need them
at the same time. The IMF gets ordinary resources from its members quota subscriptions,
which could be supplemented occasionally by borrowed resources when in need.
Several suggestions have been put forward to improve the resources of the IMF.
The main proposals include:
(i) Enlarge the total quotas commensurate
with the growth of world output and the growth in the volume of world trade
with some emphasis on the redistribution of these quotas with adequate weightage
to developing countries;
(ii) Fund could issue SDR to itself
for use in Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) operations subject to predetermined
cumulative limit and other appropriate safeguards under Article XVIII of the
Articles of Agreement; and
(iii) Mobilise significant bilateral/multilateral
resources to supplement its own during crisis.
9.103 The decision of the Twelfth
General Review of quota in January 2003 not to increase the Fund quotas has
brought into focus the issue of Fund governance. Over the years, the prevailing
system of quota and voting power have created distortions, which, in turn, have
raised issues of equity. Presently, a group of 24 industrial countries control
62 per cent of the voting power, while more than 85 per cent of the members
(159 out of the 183 members) together hold the remaining 38 per cent of the
votes. In the present milieu, the existing imbalance is viewed as evidence of
the lop-sidedness of the governance of the IMF. Effective governance of the
IMF demands that the institutional benefits and burdens are equitably shared
among the members and that the checks and balances operate efficiently in the
decision-making process. Improving IMF governance and thus reducing the ‘democratic
deficit’ in its functioning needs to be approached through structural reforms
aimed at redistribution of the voting power amongst member countries (Reddy,
2003a).
9.104 Closely related to the issue
of enhancing the Fund resources through revision of quotas is the evolving role
of the Fund as the supplier of international liquidity. In the late 1990s, several
economists including Giannini (1999) and Fischer (1999) favoured an international
institution serving as an international lender of last resort. Fischer (1999)
and Giannini (1999) argue that the main function of the lender of last resort
in most modern industrialised economies is that of 'crisis manager',
a role that does not necessarily require vast amounts of capital. The management
of international liquidity has a special role in preventing and avoiding contagion from financial crises and lessening their adverse economic effects. The arguments
for a ‘lender of last resort’ (LOLR) are centered on the requirements for providing
adequate international liquidity in times of crises. The role of IMF should
not be viewed as a LOLR as it is not in a position to supply unlimited liquidity.
However, much can be done to improve the way IMF operates so that, in effect,
it moves in that direction. Thus, IMF resources need to be sufficiently enlarged
in order to enable it to enhance the stability of the international financial
system (Reddy, 2003a).
9.105 For the IMF to take over
the International Lender of Last Resort (ILOLR) function, sufficient augmentation
of its general resources appear critical. It is felt that the 'the liquidity
creation ability of the IMF should be in situations when (i) countries in financial
crisis require support; and (ii) when the IMF has run out of its own resources
as well as the available funds under the arrangements to borrow' (Reddy,
2003a). Even though the aggregate quota of all members amount to about SDR 212
billion, usable resources at the disposal of the Fund at any point of time are
about 30 to 40 per cent less since a large part of the quota based resources
are not usable. New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) and General Arrangements to
Borrow (GAB) can supplement the Fund resources to a maximum of SDR 34 billion.
The IMF has the option of assuming the ILOLR function as under Article XVIII
it can allocate SDRs 'to meet the long-term global need, as and when it
arises, to supplement existing reserve assets'. In other words, 'IMF
can remain as a quasi lender of the last resort' (Reddy, 2003a) or it could
be said as 'IMF is lender of some sort' (Jalan, 1999).
9.106 India has also raised this
issue on several occasions that IMF could issue SDRs to itself to augment its
resources at the time of need and relinquish the additional liquidity so created
as and when the member countries effect the repurchases (Jalan, 1999). If this
arrangement can be implemented, the IMF can effectively create unlimited liquidity
and support the national initiatives in bridging any liquidity shortfall. The
role of the IMF as an 'lender of some sort' would further improve
its standing among EMEs, '….IMF’s effectiveness would be enhanced even
as a conditional limited liquidity creator irrespective of whether this facility
is actually operated or not. The fact of availability itself could enhance the
IMF’s capacity to influence markets. Coupled with the ongoing work on the SDRM
as well as progress in Collective Action Clause, this initiative would strengthen
the IMF’s effort towards crisis resolution' (Reddy, 2003a).
9.107 In the context of the financing
framework of the IMF, four main concerns have been expressed (Reddy, 2003a).
These concerns relate to (i) the burden of additional expenditures borne almost
entirely by the borrowers in the General Resources Account (GRA) and not shared
by other members of the IMF despite the fact that the financial support to borrowing
countries account for only 35 per cent of the total budget of the IMF, while
65 per cent is spent on activities which benefit almost all members; (ii) complexity
of the income generating structure and the accounting procedure inhibits reduction
in the rate of charge applicable to the GRA borrowing countries; (iii) the entire
burden of the increasing the reserves of the IMF is placed on the GRA borrowing
countries through charges and surcharges levied on them; and (iv) neutral members
who are neither creditor or debtor do not bear any part of the expenditure burden
of the IMF. Again, certain dilemmas from the point of view of the countries
approaching the IMF in view of undesirable domestic political message attached,
compliance with Fund conditionality and necessary adjustments have been highlighted
(Reddy, 2003a). These dilemmas relate to the stage at which the country approaches
the Fund for support, level of adjustment the country is prepared to undertake,
minimum amount needed from IMF for managing the crisis, how much support IMF
would provide and how does one assess both upside and downside risks of alternative
paths of adjustments.
9.108 The fact remains that the
Fund programmes represent a delicate balance between uniformity of treatment
of members and flexibility that accounts for country specific situations. The
scope of conditionality was expanded significantly in the aftermath of a series
of financial crises that gripped a number of systemically important emerging
market economies in the 1990s. Some conditionality is legitimate for drawings
that are made when a country is experiencing balance of payment problems originating
in inappropriate macroeconomic policies, or for the use of funds which is greater
than the automatic low-conditionality facilities. However, there is some evidence
that such conditionalities are attached without due regard for the borrower
countries’ circumstances. Moreover, the prescriptive recommendations by the
IMF also fail to resolve the economic problems within the countries. A number
of criticisms have arisen on IMF conditionality in the East Asia. It has been
argued that conditionality should not include issues related to economic and
social development strategies and institutions, which, by their very nature,
should be decided by the national authorities, based on broad social consensus.
Nor should conditionality cover areas within the purview of other international
institutions and agreements, such as the World Trade Organisation (Fischer,
2002). Thus, the ongoing debate underlines the need to review the effectiveness
of the present framework of Fund conditionalities.
Other Reforms
9.109 Apart from reforms in the
international financial institutions, some other reforms are also needed which
would have significant ramifications on the design of the future financial architecture.
9.110 First, there is immediate
need to improve the consistency of macroeconomic policies at the global level
(UN, 1999). The past economic crises have highlighted the need to enhance the
coherence of macroeconomic policies at the global level. Global coherence should
aim at adoption of a set of interrelated national policies, rather than the
adoption of identical decisions, since economic conditions would be varying
in different economies at a given time. For achieving this objective, there
should be some mechanism to ensure co-ordination of national policies.
9.111 Second, it is important to
ensure that the manner in which the standards/codes/transparency norms/Macro
Prudential Indicators (MPIs) are developed and monitored does not degenerate
into categorising countries into performers and non-performers. Furthermore,
the type of transparency/ disclosure norms that could be prescribed for matured
financial systems, could at best serve only as guiding reference points for
not so matured financial systems, requiring implementation of such norms only
in a flexible and gradual manner. Given the enormous prevalent divergences in
institutional development, systems, and the nature of relations amongst various
arms of national governments, the implementation of standards and codes should
continue to be voluntary in nature and keeping in view the country specific
conditions.
9.112 Third, the regulation of
the credit rating agencies is emerging as an important issue. Capital flows
to a large number of emerging and developing countries are to a large extent
affected by the assessments and the ratings assigned by the international credit
rating agencies (such as, Moody’s, or Standard and Poor’s ) to them. The shortcomings
of the ratings assigned by these agencies was clearly exposed during the East
Asian crisis in 1997 when they failed to warn these countries of the impending
crisis (Reddy, 2000a). Ipso facto these agencies had focused too narrowly
on the conventional indicators of country risk such as fiscal balance, banking
sector health, national trade and current account balances, and overlooked more
dangerous imbalances building up in capital accounts, particularly in short-term
money market flows, and the huge pre-crisis build-up of Asian corporate debt.
In view of this, there is a need for an international framework having a equitable
representation of the borrowers and lenders for monitoring the credit rating
agencies. Furthermore, a more continuous scale may be devised for the credit
ratings of countries so that changes in these are gradual and not dramatic.
This will allow the affected countries to take corrective measures before the
situation gets out of control (see Chapter VI).
9.113 Fourth, the need for transparency
in an integrated world can hardly be over emphasised. However, at the same time
it is important to assess whether the market interprets the available information
appropriately. Prior to all the crises in the emerging markets in the 1990s,
information on a whole range of important indicators was already available.
Post-crises analyses have prominently prompted measures to enlarge the list
of indicators. The speed at which most financial firms alter their both on-balance
sheet and off-balance sheet positions makes even the most recently reported
information obsolete. It is also not clear whether these position shifts are
triggered by any assessment of new information or by noise driven panic. Accordingly,
there is need for a careful assessment of various issues involved (See Chapter
VII).
V. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
9.114 The issue of an appropriate
international financial architecture, which has been debated from time to time,
resurfaced with a renewed thrust after the East Asian crisis. The surge in global
capital flows in the late 1980s and the early 1990s coincided with the opening
up and financial liberalisation in several developing economies. Accordingly,
capital flows to the emerging market economies rose significantly until the
East Asian crisis. However, the experience from the East Asian and subsequent
crises elsewhere in the 1990s highlighted the serious downside risks associated
with capital flows. Recurrent incidents of crisis and contagion resulting largely
from the reversal of capital flows seriously exposed the weaknesses of the existing
international financial architecture both in terms of crisis prevention and
resolution. In particular, episodes of the 1990s highlighted the inadequacy
of the resources available with the international financial institutions (IFIs)
to help the countries in distress.
9.115 The need to reform the existing
international financial architecture, thus, emanated from the compulsion of
developing the necessary safeguards to ensure global financial stability in
the wake of volatile capital flows. The focus of the new evolving international
financial architecture, accordingly, has been on the development of a transparent
and stable global financial system so as to minimise the risks of crisis and
contagion. However, in order to pursue the objective of growth with stability
effectively, it is important to take into account several factors. First, the
inter-relations amongst the various components of the emerging architecture
should be clearly recognised. Reliance on any one or even a few of the different
proposals for reform, without a clear understanding about the implicit inter-dependence
among the various components may weaken the process of globalisation. Second,
the need for restructuring the existing international financial architecture
should necessarily be complemented by the adoption of appropriate domestic policies
based on sound macroeconomic management and an efficient financial system supported
by comprehensive prudential regulation and supervision of financial institutions.
A strong and resilient domestic system can withstand shocks and reduce the probability
of crises or contagion. Third, in view of the fact that the resources available
with the IFIs have been grossly inadequate to support countries facing rapid
capital outflows, there is an urgent need to augment such resources. Along with
this, concerns regarding governance of IFIs would also need to be addressed.
Finally, in the present era of transition of the existing international financial
architecture, the need to maintain adequate international reserves can hardly
be over-emphasised. Accumulation of international reserves can act not only
as a ‘safety valve’ against capital flight, but more importantly, can serve
as an effective market signal about the strength of an economy.
9.116 Keeping in view the weaknesses
of international financial architecture, India has followed a gradual and cautious
approach towards globalisation, in general, and financial integration, in particular.
The pace and sequencing of integration have been carefully calibrated. Along
with the increased integration, emphasis has also been laid on building domestic
financial institutions and financial infrastructure, development of an appropriate
regulatory framework, adherence to international standards and codes and strengthening
of corporate governance. These policies have held India in good stead.
9.117 Developing an appropriate
international financial architecture is a continuous and evolving process. India
has been playing an important role in the new international financial architecture
in various international fora. Future deliberations on the issue of international
architecture should be consultative, providing an adequate and just representation
to various economic groups in general, and to developing and emerging economies
in particular.