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Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series, 2016-17
Date : Sep 11, 2017

This article presents monthly seasonal factors for 76 macroeconomic variables covering five broad sectors (viz., money and banking, price, industrial production, merchandise trade and services). Indicators of industrial production, monetary/banking and services sector indicators recorded a seasonal peak in March while the majority of price indicators recorded a seasonal trough in March-May. Structural breaks in monetary and banking aggregates as a consequence of demonetisation and in wholesale prices and industrial production indices due to base year revisions, were treated suitably for generating seasonal factors.

Adjustments for seasonal variations in macroeconomic variables (i.e., the removal of seasonal effects in variables) enables a true reading of underlying sequential changes and understanding inter-relationships. Accordingly, seasonal factors, which provide a quantitative measure of seasonality, are published as an annual article in the Reserve Bank of India Bulletin since 19801.

2. Coverage and Methodology

Seasonal factors for select 76 monthly macroeconomic variables presented in this article are grouped into five categories: (i) monetary and banking Indicators (14 series); (ii) price indices [consumer price index (CPI): 21 series; and wholesale price index (WPI): 9 series]; (iii) industrial production (23 series); (iv) service sector indicators (6 series); and (v) merchandise trade (3 series). In respect of some indicators, the coverage has changed substantially due to (a) the introduction of the CPI-Combined (base: 2012=100); (b) release of the revised series of index of industrial production (IIP) (base: 2011-12=100); and (c) release of the revised WPI series (base: 2011-12=100). Furthermore, there was a major shift in monetary and banking aggregates due to the withdrawal of specified bank notes (SBNs) announced on November 8, 2016 and the subsequent remonetisation (please see the Annex for methodological issues in the context of structural breaks).

Most of the indicators have a long history of monthly data and accordingly, the past 12 years’ data have been used to generate seasonal factors. In case of the CPI-Combined and its components, however, data are available since January 2011 only. Seasonal factors have been estimated by using the X-13-ARIMA software, developed by the US Census Bureau2, after suitably configuring the package to suit Indian conditions, e.g., incorporating Diwali. The package was also customised to include Indian trading day effects3.

3. Salient Findings

Monetary and Banking Indicators: Of the 14 major monetary and banking indicators considered, 11 recorded seasonal peaks during March-April (i.e., around the financial year closing) whereas a seasonal trough for the majority of these series was traced during August-December (Chart 1). Demand deposits of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) exhibited the highest seasonal variation [Average seasonal factor (SF) range: 9.3] followed by reserve money or M0 (Average SF range: 6.4), cash in hand and SCBs’ balances with the RBI (Average SF range: 6.2). Time deposits of SCBs exhibited the smallest seasonal variation (Average SF range: 1.7). For most of these series, considerable moderation in seasonality has occurred over the last 10 years (Table 2).

Consumer Price Index (CPI): The range for the average seasonal factor for the aggregate CPI series [CPI-Combined, CPI for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW), CPI for Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL) and CPI for Rural Labourers (CPI-RL)] was 2.1–2.5. The majority of the CPI series recorded peak seasonality in September-December while 13 out of the 18 CPI-combined series displayed seasonal troughs during March-May. Perishability remains a key determinant of seasonality in vegetable prices and headline CPI. CPI-Vegetables showed the highest seasonal variation (six-year average SF range: 22.5). Within vegetables, tomatoes, onions and potatoes recorded an average SF range of 63.1, 49.2 and 37.5, respectively. The average SF range for Pulses and products increased significantly to 5.5 from the five-year average of 3.7. Prices of non-alcoholic beverages did not reflect any seasonality (average SF range: 0.3).


Wholesale Price Index (WPI): Seasonal fluctuations in the WPI-all commodities was largely driven by primary articles, especially food articles and consequentially, the SF range of WPI – all commodities has been increasing since 2011-12. The SF range for WPI – manufactured products came down further to 0.9 in 2016-17 from 1.5 a decade ago. WPI – fuel & power typically peaks in July.

Industrial Production: Industrial Production is highly seasonal with peaks in March and troughs in February4 or April (Chart 4). Within the IIP, the average SF range for sectoral and used-based groups was 10.2-38.0, where capital goods and intermediate goods exhibited highest and lowest seasonality, respectively. Among the core industries, production of coal, cement and steel are highly seasonal.

Service Sector Indicators: Four of the six services sector indicators recorded seasonal peaks in March (Chart 5). Production and sales of commercial motor vehicles remained highly seasonal and more pronounced in the latter. By contrast, seasonality in respect of both cargo handled at major ports and railway freight traffic came down. Passenger air traffic also remained highly seasonal, though the seasonality in domestic passenger traffic has come down and is comparable to its international counterpart. The seasonal peaks for domestic and international passenger traffic coincided with holiday seasons in May and January, respectively.


Merchandise Trade: The seasonal peaks for merchandise exports and imports (including non-oil non-gold import) remained unchanged in March and October, respectively. The seasonality of external trade indicators has been rising during recent years. (Chart 6 & Table 2).


3.1 Changing Seasonality Pattern over the Last Decade

A regression-based test5 indicates that seasonal fluctuations have moderated for 42 series while 20 series exhibited increased volatility of their seasonal components and the remaining 14 series maintained broadly similar seasonal behaviour over the years (Chart 7). Seasonal fluctuations in monetary and banking aggregates moderated or remained broadly unchanged whereas in the IIP categories, seasonal variation increased for mining, primary goods, infrastructure/construction goods and electricity. Among CPI items, the seasonality of pulses and products increased significantly.

3.2 Change in Seasonal Peak and Trough Months

Across the 76 series, seasonal variation in 2016-17 has remained broadly close to the previous five years’ average (Chart 8). Peak and trough months for 46 of the 76 selected series remained unchanged in 2016-17 when compared with the previous five years’ average (2011-12 to 2015-16). For the remaining series, the shift in seasonal peaks/troughs was by one to two months of which, five series (viz., narrow money, time deposits, WPI-manufactured products, CPI-milk and products and CPI–miscellaneous) recorded simultaneous shifts of peak and trough months (Chart 9). The peak / trough months remained unaltered for the three old-base aggregate CPIs (i.e., CPI-IW, CPI-AL and CPI-RL).



Annex

Estimation of Seasonal Factors and Treatment of Outliers – A Retrospective from Demonetisation experience in India

Outliers often disrupt the data generating process (DGP) and influence model specification, causing bias in parameter estimates. In turn this can produce imprecise forecasts (Kaiser and Maravall, 1999). The X-13-ARIMA method of the US Census Bureau is commonly used to estimate seasonality. It can detect outliers automatically and treat them suitably. The outlier specification of the package enables identification of (a) additive outlier (AO) which impacts only one observation in the series, (b) temporary change (TC) outlier, which resembles a spike-like peak in the time series that takes longer to subside and (c) level-shift (LS) outlier, which shifts the observations into a new level (US Census Bureau, 2011; 2017).

Recent shocks to currency in circulation (CIC) and other monetary and banking aggregates have created changes in the DGP that are compatible with the LS outlier specification of X-13-ARIMA package (e.g., with revised CIC being lower than pre-demonetisation in the levels and an upward level shift in aggregate deposits). Therefore, the analysis of seasonality of monetary and banking indicators was carried out using X-13-ARIMA under the automatic outlier detection approach. In addition, the coded outlier approach (manual detection) was also used with a level shift during November 2016 as the X-13-ARIMA was unable to identify November 2016 as LS outlier. The coded outlier was found to be statistically significant with expected sign. The estimated seasonal factors of the series were found to vary marginally under these two approaches (automatic and coded) with no drift observed in the seasonal peak and trough (Chart 10).

References:

Kaiser, Regina and Agustin Maravall (1999): “Seasonal Outliers in Time Series”, Documento de Trabajo No. 9915, Banco de Espana,

US Census Bureau (2011): “X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual”, version 0.3

US Census Bureau (2017): “X-13ARIMA-SEATS Reference Manual”, version 0.1

Table 1: Average Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series (Contd.)
Series/Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) 101.4 100.9 100.1 100.2 99.8 99.4 99.7 99.5 99.1 99.5 99.8 100.6
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 101.0 101.0 100.6 101.6 100.9 99.6 99.9 100.0 98.0 99.1 99.2 99.4
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 100.9 100.1 100.0 99.3 98.9 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.7 100.2 100.5 102.1
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) 102.3 101.4 100.7 99.3 98.9 99.0 98.6 98.7 99.3 98.8 100.0 102.9
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) 102.3 101.7 101.0 99.6 98.8 98.1 98.5 99.2 98.6 98.7 99.2 104.5
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation 102.8 103.2 101.8 99.4 98.6 97.6 98.3 98.9 99.1 99.6 100.2 100.5
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) 101.0 100.4 99.6 100.4 100.0 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.3 99.5 99.6 100.6
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) 101.1 99.1 98.0 98.6 98.5 100.8 99.6 98.9 99.9 98.7 99.7 106.5
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) 100.8 100.6 99.8 100.6 100.1 99.5 100.4 100.0 99.3 99.6 99.6 99.8
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) 101.8 99.3 100.3 101.2 100.6 101.1 99.8 101.1 100.0 97.4 98.4 99.4
A.3.2 Bank Credit (SCBs) 101.1 100.3 100.2 99.6 99.0 99.4 99.2 99.0 99.7 99.8 100.3 102.3
A.3.2.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) 100.5 100.1 100.3 99.1 98.8 100.5 99.2 99.0 99.6 99.7 100.1 103.1
A.3.2.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) 101.2 100.1 100.0 99.6 99.0 99.5 99.3 99.0 99.7 99.8 100.2 102.4
A.3.3 Investments (SCBs) 100.3 100.4 100.0 101.1 101.7 100.9 100.8 100.5 98.8 99.1 99.0 97.6
B. CPI (Base: 2012 = 100) All Commodities 99.2 99.4 100.0 100.7 100.9 101.0 101.0 100.7 99.9 99.4 99.0 98.9
B.1 CPI - Food and beverages 98.2 98.8 100.1 101.6 102.1 102.0 102.0 101.3 99.6 98.6 98.0 97.7
B.1.1 CPI - Cereals and products 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.9 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.0
B.1.2 CPI - Meat and fish 99.8 100.4 101.8 101.7 101.1 100.2 99.6 98.7 98.6 99.3 99.3 99.4
B.1.3 CPI - Egg 96.7 96.5 98.2 99.9 99.0 99.0 99.3 101.7 103.6 104.1 102.1 99.5
B.1.4 CPI - Milk and products 99.6 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.2 100.3 100.0 99.8 99.8 99.6
B.1.5 CPI - Fruits 102.6 102.8 102.9 103.5 102.3 98.8 98.9 98.5 97.4 97.1 97.0 98.3
B.1.6 CPI - Vegetables 90.7 94.1 100.4 107.3 110.9 111.1 110.5 106.7 97.9 92.3 89.5 88.5
B.1.6.1 CPI - Potato 85.7 94.5 101.5 108.7 113.3 114.6 116.7 116.8 102.3 86.5 79.4 80.2
B.1.6.2 CPI - Onion 78.9 77.3 82.9 95.4 117.3 126.5 125.0 120.1 104.9 96.7 90.9 82.8
B.1.6.3 CPI - Tomato 80.5 92.7 110.8 136.6 117.8 109.2 109.2 118.8 93.4 80.8 73.6 76.4
B.1.7 CPI - Pulses and products 98.1 98.7 99.1 99.8 100.3 101.1 101.7 102.1 101.4 100.4 99.2 98.3
B.1.8 CPI - Spices 99.2 99.3 99.6 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.2 99.9 99.5
B.1.9 CPI - Non-alcoholic beverages 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.8
B.1.10 CPI - Prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 99.8 99.7 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.3 100.1 100.1 99.9
B.2 CPI - Clothing and footwear 99.9 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.2 100.1 100.0
B.3 CPI - Housing 100.2 100.1 99.3 99.5 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.3 99.6 100.2 100.3 100.2
B.4 CPI - Miscellaneous 99.6 99.8 99.9 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.2 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.7
C.1 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) 98.9 99.2 99.6 100.3 100.7 100.9 101.1 101.0 100.4 99.8 99.3 98.8
C.2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 99.3 99.3 99.7 100.8 100.8 100.7 101.0 100.8 99.9 99.6 99.1 98.8
C.3 Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986- 87=100) 98.8 99.1 99.6 100.3 100.8 101.0 101.2 101.1 100.3 99.7 99.2 98.8
D. WPI (Base: 2011-12=100) All Commodities 99.9 100.2 100.2 100.7 100.6 100.7 100.6 100.1 99.3 99.4 99.0 99.2
D.1 WPI - Primary Articles 99.0 99.7 100.9 101.5 102.0 101.4 101.1 101.3 99.1 98.5 97.8 97.6
D.1.1 WPI - Food Articles 99.0 99.3 100.4 101.6 102.0 102.0 102.3 101.9 98.7 98.6 97.2 96.8
D.2 WPI - FUEL & POWER 99.2 100.1 99.8 101.5 100.9 101.1 100.9 100.3 99.5 99.1 98.8 98.9
D.3 WPI - Manufactured Products 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.3 100.2 100.2 100.1 99.7 99.4 99.7 99.6 99.8
D.3.1 WPI - Manufacture of Food Products 100.1 100.0 99.9 100.5 100.6 100.8 100.3 99.9 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9
D.3.2 WPI - Manufacture of Chemicals & Chemical Products 100.1 100.4 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.2 100.1 99.7 99.5 99.5 99.6 99.7
D.3.3 WPI - Manufacture of Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products 101.2 101.1 100.7 100.0 99.5 99.7 99.9 99.6 99.1 99.4 99.5 100.4
D.3.4 WPI - Manufacture of Machinery & Machine Tools 100.3 100.3 100.3 100.0 99.9 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.8 99.7 99.9 100.1
E. IIP (Base 2011-12 = 100) General Index 96.6 99.5 98.5 98.2 96.5 97.9 99.5 97.9 103.7 103.4 98.6 109.5
E.1.1 IIP - Primary goods 97.1 102.2 99.1 97.8 97.7 95.0 100.6 98.2 104.2 104.0 96.0 108.1

Table 1: Average Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series (Concld.)
Series/Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
E.1.2 IIP - Capital goods 89.7 96.9 100.9 95.4 96.2 102.4 94.9 97.9 100.1 95.8 102.2 127.7
E.1.3 IIP - Intermediate goods 99.6 100.2 99.4 101.2 100.4 100.3 98.5 97.1 100.2 100.0 96.5 106.7
E.1.4 IIP - Infrastructure/ construction goods 99.9 105.1 101.8 101.5 97.7 97.0 97.2 92.3 99.8 103.6 97.9 106.0
E.1.5 IIP - Consumer goods 95.6 98.1 96.5 97.7 96.4 99.9 101.8 99.6 104.0 102.7 100.1 107.3
E.1.5.1 IIP - Consumer durables 94.3 97.2 97.3 98.2 96.8 106.2 107.4 101.7 98.8 99.0 96.6 106.1
E.1.5.2 IIP - Consumer non-durables 95.3 98.9 96.6 97.9 96.3 95.7 95.8 98.3 108.3 105.8 102.5 108.5
E.2.1 IIP - Mining 98.3 100.8 95.6 92.3 90.9 89.4 97.8 99.7 106.9 108.6 102.4 117.8
E.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing 96.0 99.1 98.6 98.8 97.1 99.0 99.4 97.7 103.7 102.9 98.8 108.5
E.2.2.1 IIP - Manufacture of food products 94.8 87.5 86.0 90.7 88.2 88.8 94.9 101.9 122.5 120.3 113.3 111.0
E.2.2.2 IIP - Manufacture of beverages 123.0 134.9 108.5 88.2 83.1 88.5 90.8 84.3 88.7 92.3 98.3 120.3
E.2.2.3 IIP - Manufacture of textiles 97.1 98.5 97.8 101.5 103.6 102.0 101.8 98.7 100.7 100.8 95.6 101.9
E.2.2.4 IIP - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 93.5 100.9 100.6 104.7 102.8 101.3 100.6 98.4 100.8 99.7 93.9 102.7
E.2.2.5 IIP - Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 100.5 102.0 98.1 100.2 98.8 100.8 100.6 100.8 94.1 98.6 99.6 105.4
E.2.3 IIP - Electricity 99.8 104.2 99.7 101.7 101.2 98.7 102.7 95.7 98.9 100.2 93.4 103.3
E.3 Cement Production 104.3 103.4 99.4 97.0 90.2 91.4 99.0 92.2 102.3 106.3 101.1 113.6
E.4 Steel Production 98.4 103.9 98.5 100.3 99.2 96.8 99.2 95.3 100.5 104.1 97.9 105.3
E.5 Coal Production 91.3 93.5 89.0 83.8 83.0 82.3 97.3 104.4 113.4 116.8 110.8 134.6
E.6 Crude Oil Production 98.9 101.4 99.2 101.5 101.2 97.8 101.9 99.2 102.1 101.7 92.5 102.5
E.7 Petroleum Refinery Production 96.0 100.0 99.6 101.6 100.9 95.7 101.3 98.2 103.3 102.8 95.7 105.1
E.8 Fertiliser Production 81.7 95.9 98.6 105.5 105.9 104.2 107.7 105.2 106.3 102.8 93.2 92.7
E.9 Natural Gas Production 97.6 101.6 98.6 102.1 101.5 98.5 102.5 99.7 102.5 101.8 91.5 102.0
F.1 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles 95.0 95.8 90.9 96.5 98.1 99.0 99.7 100.6 94.0 105.9 106.1 117.6
F.2 Cargo handled at Major Ports 99.9 103.9 96.5 99.1 98.2 93.0 98.6 99.1 102.6 104.1 95.5 108.7
F.3 Railway Freight Traffic 97.4 100.7 96.5 97.9 95.4 93.4 98.8 98.6 103.8 106.6 97.9 112.7
F.4 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles 86.1 90.9 96.9 94.2 95.5 106.4 99.7 94.0 98.0 103.6 104.3 129.1
F.5 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic 101.2 112.0 103.5 96.4 94.2 89.3 98.6 99.7 107.9 102.9 95.9 98.5
F.6 Passenger flown (Km) - International 96.2 101.0 100.7 106.0 104.0 93.4 93.3 95.2 105.8 109.0 93.9 101.8
G.1 Exports 97.2 100.7 100.5 100.2 97.8 101.6 97.7 92.4 101.5 99.3 96.1 115.1
G.2 Imports 99.3 104.9 100.2 103.7 98.8 102.4 106.0 98.8 98.4 97.0 90.9 100.9
G.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports 94.6 99.1 100.6 102.2 98.8 100.6 105.1 103.0 104.1 100.1 93.1 98.4

1 Seasonal factors: Deviation from 100 indicates presence of seasonality. For instance, seasonal factor of WPI- fruits & vegetables increases during Oct(107.6) and decreases during Mar (89.8) indicating that fruits and vegetables exert price pressure in wholesale market during October and eases during March due to seasonal fluctuations.

Note 2:

For all CPI indices, the average monthly seasonal factors have been computed on the basis of last 6 years (i.e., April 2011 to March 2017). Further average linking factor has been used to compute the back series of IIP (Overall, mining, manufacturing and electricity) and WPI series.

The average linking factor was calculated based on IIP/ WPI series for the common period from Apr 2012 to Mar 2017. The back series of IIP, however, was not compiled at further disaggregated level (use based and NIC-2 digit level) due to major changes in coverage.

Table 2: Range (Difference Between Peak and Trough) of Seasonal Factors (Contd.)
Series \ Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Average Range
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.4
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.9
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.2
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) 6.2 6.0 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.1 4.9
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation 6.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.7
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) 14.5 14.3 13.0 11.1 8.6 6.2 5.4 5.8 6.6 7.3 9.3
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) 11.2 9.8 7.7 5.6 4.5 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.2
A.3.2 Bank Credit (SCBs) 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.4
A.3.2.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3
A.3.2.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.5
A.3.3 Investments (SCBs) 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 4.1
B. CPI (Base: 2012 = 100) All Commodities         2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
B.1 CPI - Food and beverages         4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4
B.1.1 CPI - Cereals and products         1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8
B.1.2 CPI - Meat and fish         3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3
B.1.3 CPI - Egg         8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.7
B.1.4 CPI - Milk and products         0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
B.1.5 CPI - Fruits         6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5
B.1.6 CPI - Vegetables         22.6 22.6 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.5
B.1.6.1 CPI - Potato         36.9 37.0 37.1 37.8 38.2 38.2 37.5
B.1.6.2 CPI - Onion         47.8 48.5 49.0 50.3 50.0 49.6 49.2
B.1.6.3 CPI - Tomato         62.7 62.8 63.1 63.0 63.0 63.6 63.1
B.1.7 CPI - Pulses and products         2.9 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.5 4.0
B.1.8 CPI - Spices         1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.4
B.1.9 CPI - Non-alcoholic beverages         0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
B.1.10 CPI - Prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc.         0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6
B.2 CPI - Clothing and footwear         0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5
B.3 CPI - Housing         1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
B.4 CPI - Miscellaneous         0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7
C.1 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
C.2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2
C.3 Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
D. WPI (Base: 2011-12=100) All Commodities 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8
D.1 WPI - Primary Articles 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3 4.4
D.1.1 WPI - Food Articles 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7
D.2 WPI - Fuel & Power 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.1 3.2
D.3 WPI - Manufactured Products 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1
D.3.1 WPI - Manufacture of Food Products 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9
D.3.2 WPI - Manufacture of Chemicals & Chemical Products 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1
D.3.3 WPI - Manufacture of Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.1
D.3.4 WPI - Manufacture of Machinery & Machine Tools 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
E. IIP (Base 2011-12 = 100) General Index 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.0 13.3 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.4
E.1.1 IIP - Primary goods           12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.0

Table 2: Range (Difference Between Peak and Trough) of Seasonal Factors (Concld.)
Series \ Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Average Range
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
E.1.2 IIP - Capital goods           37.9 38.0 37.8 38.2 38.2 38.0
E.1.3 IIP - Intermediate goods           10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.2 10.2
E.1.4 IIP - Infrastructure/ construction goods           12.4 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.2 13.7
E.1.5 IIP - Consumer goods           12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.6
E.1.5.1 IIP - Consumer durables           14.0 13.8 13.3 12.7 12.2 13.2
E.1.5.2 IIP - Consumer non-durables           14.4 13.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.6
E.2.1 IIP - Mining 25.1 26.1 27.0 27.8 28.8 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 28.4
E.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing 14.2 13.4 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.6
E.2.2.1 IIP - Manufacture of food products           36.6 36.6 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5
E.2.2.2 IIP - Manufacture of beverages           54.5 53.7 52.0 50.0 48.5 51.7
E.2.2.3 IIP - Manufacture of textiles           9.2 8.7 8.1 7.4 6.7 8.0
E.2.2.4 IIP - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products           11.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.8 11.2
E.2.2.5 IIP - Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers           12.0 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.3 11.3
E.2.3 IIP - Electricity 10.3 10.7 11.3 11.2 10.7 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.8 11.4
E.3 Cement Production 21.6 22.1 23.1 23.7 24.4 24.4 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.5
E.4 Steel Production 12.3 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 10.9
E.5 Coal Production 49.3 51.5 53.3 54.5 55.0 54.3 53.0 51.9 51.3 51.0 52.5
E.6 Crude Oil Production 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.6 10.0
E.7 Petroleum Refinery Production 8.7 8.7 9.1 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.8
E.8 Fertiliser Production 27.3 26.3 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.3 26.5 25.3 24.1 26.3
E.9 Natural Gas Production 12.2 12.0 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.2
F.1 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles 28.7 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.5 26.0 25.2 25.1 26.9 27.5 27.4
F.2 Cargo handled at Major Ports 17.6 17.2 16.7 16.0 15.3 14.8 14.6 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7
F.3 Railway Freight Traffic 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.6 20.0 19.1 18.3 17.4 16.8 16.4 19.3
F.4 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles 47.6 45.2 43.3 41.8 40.9 40.8 41.6 42.3 42.9 43.3 43.0
F.5 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic 22.7 23.9 25.3 25.8 25.7 24.3 22.4 20.3 18.6 17.6 22.7
F.6 Passenger flown (Km) - International 17.1 17.9 17.7 16.1 14.7 16.3 17.9 18.3 18.2 17.7 17.2
G.1 Exports 20.1 19.7 20.5 22.1 23.6 24.3 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.6 22.6
G.2 Imports 22.1 20.4 17.4 14.7 13.2 12.3 12.7 13.4 14.3 14.4 15.5
G.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports 17.1 16.1 14.5 13.2 12.0 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.8

* *Seasonal adjustment for these series is based on 10 years data depending on availability. Guidelines of both the Office of National Statistics (ONS), UK, and the US Census Bureau, however, suggest using more than ten years data for estimating stable monthly seasonal factors.

Table 3: Change in seasonal variation in 2016-17 vis-à-vis previous 5-years (2011-12 to 2015-16)
Name of Variable 2016-17 Average Range* Change Name of Variable 2016-17 Average Range* Change
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) 1.9 2.1 -0.2 D.2 WPI - Fuel & Power 5.1 3.0 2.1
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 3.1 3.3 -0.2 D.3 WPI - Manufactured Products 0.9 0.9 0.0
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 2.6 2.6 0.0 D.3.1 WPI - Manufacture of Food Products 1.8 2.0 -0.2
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) 5.1 4.2 0.8 D.3.2 WPI - Manufacture of Chemicals & Chemical Products 1.4 1.1 0.4
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) 6.4 6.3 0.0 D.3.3 WPI - Manufacture of Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products 2.7 1.6 1.1
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation 5.1 5.2 -0.1 D.3.4 WPI - Manufacture of Machinery & Machine Tools 0.7 0.7 0.0
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) 1.4 1.6 -0.3 E. IIP (Base 2011-12 = 100) General Index 12.6 12.9 -0.4
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) 7.3 6.5 0.7 E.1.1 IIP - Primary goods 13.3 13.0 0.3
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) 1.3 1.4 -0.2 E.1.2 IIP - Capital goods 38.2 38.0 0.2
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) 5.7 4.4 1.3 E.1.3 IIP - Intermediate goods 10.2 10.2 0.0
A.3.2 Bank Credit (SCBs) 2.5 2.9 -0.4 E.1.4 IIP - Infrastructure/ construction goods 15.2 13.3 1.9
A.3.2.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) 4.2 4.2 0.0 E.1.5 IIP - Consumer goods 11.3 11.7 -0.4
A.3.2.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) 2.9 3.0 -0.1 E.1.5.1 IIP - Consumer durables 12.2 13.4 -1.3
A.3.3 Investments (SCBs) 3.3 4.0 -0.7 E.1.5.2 IIP - Consumer non-durables 13.6 13.6 0.0
B. CPI (Base: 2012 = 100) All Commodities 2.1 2.2 -0.1 E.2.1 IIP - Mining 29.9 29.6 0.3
B.1 CPI - Food and beverages 4.6 4.4 0.2 E.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing 12.4 12.1 0.2
B.1.1 CPI - Cereals and products 0.6 0.8 -0.2 E.2.2.1 IIP - Manufacture of food products 36.5 36.5 -0.1
B.1.2 CPI - Meat and fish 3.5 3.2 0.2 E.2.2.2 IIP - Manufacture of beverages 48.5 52.6 -4.1
B.1.3 CPI - Egg 7.1 7.9 -0.8 E.2.2.3 IIP - Manufacture of textiles 6.7 8.3 -1.7
B.1.4 CPI - Milk and products 0.7 0.8 -0.1 E.2.2.4IIP-Manufactureofchemicalsandchemicalproducts 10.8 11.3 -0.5
B.1.5 CPI - Fruits 6.5 6.5 0.0 E.2.2.5 IIP - Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 10.3 11.5 -1.2
B.1.6 CPI - Vegetables 22.7 22.5 0.2 E.2.3 IIP - Electricity 12.8 11.5 1.3
B.1.6.1 CPI - Potato 38.2 37.4 0.8 E.3 Cement Production 23.3 24.1 -0.8
B.1.6.2 CPI - Onion 49.6 49.1 0.5 E.4 Steel Production 11.0 10.7 0.3
B.1.6.3 CPI - Tomato 63.6 62.9 0.7 E.5 Coal Production 51.0 53.1 -2.2
B.1.7 CPI - Pulses and products 5.5 3.7 1.7 E.6 Crude Oil Production 9.6 10.0 -0.4
B.1.8 CPI - Spices 1.1 1.4 -0.3 E.7 Petroleum Refinery Production 10.2 10.4 -0.2
B.1.9 CPI - Non-alcoholic beverages 0.3 0.3 0.0 E.8 Fertiliser Production 24.1 26.6 -2.5
B.1.10 CPI - Prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 0.4 0.7 -0.3 E.9 Natural Gas Production 11.3 10.9 0.4
B.2 CPI - Clothing and footwear 0.3 0.6 -0.2 F.1 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles 27.5 26.2 1.3
B.3 CPI - Housing 1.0 1.1 -0.1 F.2 Cargo handled at Major Ports 15.4 14.9 0.5
B.4 CPI - Miscellaneous 0.6 0.7 -0.1 F.3 Railway Freight Traffic 16.4 18.3 -2.0
C.1 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) 2.4 2.4 0.1 F.4 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles 43.3 41.7 1.6
C.2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 2.4 2.2 0.2 F.5 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic 17.6 22.3 -4.7
C.3 Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 2.6 2.5 0.0 F.6 Passenger flown (Km) - International 17.7 17.1 0.7
D. WPI (Base: 2011-12=100) All Commodities 2.2 1.8 0.4 G.1 Exports 23.6 24.1 -0.5
D.1 WPI - Primary Articles 5.3 4.7 0.6 G.2 Imports 14.4 13.2 1.2
D.1.1 WPI - Food Articles 5.7 5.7 0.1 G.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports 11.4 11.1 0.3

*Average Range of Monthly Seasonal Factors for the last 5-years (2010-11 to 2014-15)

Note 2: For all IIP series (excluding Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and IIP-General), previous 4-years average range of monthly seasonal factors have been considered.

Table 4: List of Top-Twenty and Bottom-Twenty Series based on Average Range of Monthly Seasonal Factors during Last Five Years (2012-13 to 2016-17) and corresponding Peak and Trough Months
Name of Top-Twenty Series Average Range Peak Month Trough Month Name of Bottom-Twenty Series Average Range Peak Month Trough Month
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
B.1.6.3 CPI - Tomato 63.1 Jul Feb C.1 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) 2.4 Oct Mar
E.5 Coal Production 52.3 Mar Aug C.2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 2.3 Oct Mar
E.2.2.2 IIP - Manufacture of beverages 51.7 May Aug B. CPI (Base: 2012 = 100) All Commodities 2.1 Sep Mar
B.1.6.2 CPI - Onion 49.5 Sep May A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) 2.0 Apr Sep
F.4 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles 42.1 Mar Apr D. WPI (Base: 2011-12=100) All Commodities 2.0 Sep Feb
E.1.2 IIP - Capital goods 38.0 Mar Apr D.3.1 WPI - Manufacture of Food Products 1.9 Sep Mar
B.1.6.1 CPI - Potato 37.7 Nov Feb D.3.3 WPI - Manufacture of Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products 1.9 Apr Dec
E.2.2.1 IIP - Manufacture of food products 36.5 Dec Jun A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) 1.5 Apr Feb
E.2.1 IIP - Mining 29.8 Mar Sep A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) 1.3 Apr Feb
F.1 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles 26.1 Mar Dec B.1.8 CPI - Spices 1.3 Dec Apr
E.8 Fertiliser Production 26.1 Oct Apr D.3.2 WPI - Manufacture of Chemicals & Chemical Products 1.1 Jul Jan
G.1 Exports 24.1 Mar Nov B.3 CPI - Housing 1.1 Nov Jun
E.3 Cement Production 23.9 Mar Aug D.3 WPI - Manufactured Products 0.9 May Dec
B.1.6 CPI - Vegetables 22.5 Sep Mar B.1.4 CPI - Milk and products 0.7 Sep Apr
F.5 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic 20.6 May Sep B.1.1 CPI - Cereals and products 0.7 Oct May
F.6 Passenger flown (Km) - International 17.7 Jan Sep B.4 CPI - Miscellaneous 0.7 Sep Apr
F.3 Railway Freight Traffic 17.6 Mar Sep D.3.4 WPI - Manufacture of Machinery & Machine Tools 0.7 Apr Jan
F.2 Cargo handled at Major Ports 14.9 Mar Sep B.1.10 CPI - Prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. 0.6 Nov May
E.1.4 IIP - Infrastructure/ construction goods 13.7 Mar Nov B.2 CPI - Clothing and footwear 0.5 Dec May
E.1.5.2 IIP - Consumer non-durables 13.6 Mar Apr B.1.9 CPI - Non-alcoholic beverages 0.3 Sep Mar

Table 5: Regression estimates
Name of Variable Co-efficient estimate p-value Name of Variable Co-efficient estimate p-value
1 2 3 1 2 3
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) -0.140 0.000 D.2 WPI - FUEL & POWER 0.163 0.163
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government -0.308 0.000 D.3 WPI - MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS -0.078 0.000
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector -0.247 0.000 D.3.1 WPI - Manufacture of Food Products 0.019 0.318
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) -0.178 0.037 D.3.2 WPI - Manufacture of Chemicals & Chemical Products 0.033 0.055
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) -0.028 0.109 D.3.3 WPI - Manufacture of Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products -0.076 0.358
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation -0.208 0.000 D.3.4 WPI - Manufacture of Machinery & Machine Tools -0.014 0.098
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) -0.143 0.000 E. IIP (Base 2011-12 = 100) General Index -0.232 0.002
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) -1.060 0.001 E.1.1 IIP - Primary goods 0.154 0.001
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) -0.148 0.000 E.1.2 IIP - Capital goods 0.091 0.098
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) -0.627 0.014 E.1.3 IIP - Intermediate goods -0.037 0.086
A.3.2 Bank Credit (SCBs) -0.233 0.000 E.1.4 IIP - Infrastructure/ construction goods 0.714 0.000
A.3.2.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) -0.054 0.002 E.1.5 IIP - Consumer goods -0.178 0.001
A.3.2.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) -0.228 0.000 E.1.5.1 IIP - Consumer durables -0.472 0.002
A.3.3 Investments (SCBs) -0.134 0.010 E.1.5.2 IIP - Consumer non-durables -0.208 0.243
B. CPI (Base: 2012 = 100) All Commodities -0.030 0.001 E.2.1 IIP - Mining 0.562 0.000
B.1 CPI - Food and beverages 0.071 0.000 E.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing -0.170 0.017
B.1.1 CPI - Cereals and products -0.086 0.001 E.2.2.1 IIP - Manufacture of food products -0.044 0.101
B.1.2 CPI - Meat and fish 0.072 0.001 E.2.2.2 IIP - Manufacture of beverages -1.573 0.001
B.1.3 CPI - Egg -0.309 0.001 E.2.2.3 IIP - Manufacture of textiles -0.633 0.000
B.1.4 CPI - Milk and products -0.044 0.008 E.2.2.4 IIP - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products -0.150 0.011
B.1.5 CPI - Fruits 0.019 0.031 E.2.2.5 IIP - Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi- trailers -0.412 0.002
B.1.6 CPI - Vegetables 0.008 0.820 E.2.3 IIP - Electricity 0.240 0.001
B.1.6.1 CPI - Potato 0.307 0.003 E.3 Cement Production 0.186 0.071
B.1.6.2 CPI - Onion 0.425 0.035 E.4 Steel Production -0.046 0.479
B.1.6.3 CPI - Tomato 0.147 0.038 E.5 Coal Production 0.015 0.946
B.1.7 CPI - Pulses and products 0.537 0.000 E.6 Crude Oil Production -0.048 0.011
B.1.8 CPI - Spices -0.122 0.000 E.7 Petroleum Refinery Production 0.221 0.001
B.1.9 CPI - Non-alcoholic beverages -0.003 0.027 E.8 Fertiliser Production -0.169 0.146
B.1.10 CPI - Prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc. -0.090 0.000 E.9 Natural Gas Production -0.101 0.052
B.2 CPI - Clothing and footwear -0.081 0.000 F.1 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles -0.358 0.027
B.3 CPI - Housing -0.048 0.032 F.2 Cargo handled at Major Ports -0.306 0.002
B.4 CPI - Miscellaneous -0.058 0.001 F.3 Railway Freight Traffic -0.641 0.000
C.1 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) 0.048 0.000 F.4 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles -0.375 0.108
C.2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 0.039 0.003 F.5 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic -0.726 0.013
C.3 Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) 0.027 0.000 F.6 Passenger flown (Km) - International 0.110 0.420
D. WPI (Base: 2011-12=100) All Commodities 0.040 0.235 G.1 Exports 0.536 0.002
D.1 WPI - PRIMARY ARTICLES 0.206 0.001 G.2 Imports -0.845 0.011
D.1.1 WPI - Food Articles -0.004 0.806 G.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports -0.682 0.001

* Prepared in the Modeling and Forecasting Division of the Department of Statistics and Information Management.

1 The previous article in the series was published in the September 2016 issue of the Reserve Bank of India Bulletin.

2 http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/

3 Trading-day effects occur when a series is affected by the differing day-of- the-week compositions of the same calendar month in different years. In the Indian context, six working days in a week have been considered.

4 Incidentally, none of the output series considered in this article exhibited seasonal peak in February, which has relatively less number of working days.

5 Seasonal fluctuation has been regressed over time and the significance of the estimated time coefficient along with sign of the coefficient has been checked. The regression results (β-coefficient and level of significance) are presented in Table 5.


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