Furthermore, expression of intention is not
a one-off affair; on the contrary there are elements of incrementality in communication
and reputation plays a role. Illustratively, my children often start reacting
to any directions only after a reminder: their normal reaction to my directions
is to see whether I was serious to begin with. My credibility is constantly
at stake.
Communication in central banking is a far more
difficult process. It is not that long ago that central banking was shrouded
in mystery. Books like "Secrets of the Temple" (Greider, 1989), and
expressions like "monetary mystique" (Goodfreind, 1985) bear testimony
to this. It was in fact widely believed that communication from the Central
Bank needs to be couched in terms of "constructive ambiguity", a term
coined by Chairman Gerry Corrigan of the New York Fed. One is reminded of what
Alan Greenspan said, "The undeniable, though regrettable, fact is that
the most effective policymaking is done outside the immediate glare of the press'
(Greenspan, 2002).
It was felt that earlier that policy effectiveness
depended on the degree of surprise with which the market was taken by central
bank policy announcements. In fact, it is quite remarkable to note that prior
to 1994 the target Federal Funds Rate was not even announced by the US Federal
Reserve: the market was left to infer the rate from the timing, sequence and
magnitude of its open market operations (Woodford, 2005). Now, however, the
U.S. Federal Reserve not only announces its current target Fed Fund Rate but
also provides a clear indication of the likely trajectory of future interest
rates. Such has been the revolution in Central Bank communication practice over
the last ten to fifteen years.
Since the late 1980s and early 1990s the widely
perceived iron wall of central banks’ communication has become much thinner,
along with the fall of the iron curtain. From the current vantage point we can
clearly discern three reasons for this change:
- First, the clamour for and attainment of central bank independence
has imposed a great degree of responsibility on the central banks – a major
one being the attainment of transparency in communication.
- Second, adoption of inflation targeting by a number of central
banks since the 1990s made effective communication an integral part of policy
making. Monetary policy committees were formed and minutes started being published.
- Third, the innovations in information and communication technology
made the speed and form of communication from central banks quite revolutionary.
From the print medium and television the new entrants of transmission have
been the web-sites of the central banks and the wire agencies like Reuters
and Bloomberg.
This change in thinking has occurred with the
enhanced perception that 'central banks affect the economy as much through their
influence on expectations as through any direct, mechanical effects of central
bank trading in the market for overnight cash' (Woodford, 2005), or through
their specific announcements on the intervention rate. Woodford goes as far
as to say that 'Central Banking is management of expectations'. When a central
bank changes its intervention / policy rate, its effectiveness in influencing
key variables such as the inflation rate depends crucially on its effect on
other financial market prices such as the exchange rate, equity prices and the
longer term interest rates. Thus, apart from the specific action related to
the overnight policy rate, the central bank has to use all the means at its
disposal to achieve its policy aims. Now that direct credit controls, or other
quantitative direct instrument are not available, and that financial markets
have deepened even in our countries, effective communicative of central bank
policy objectives, instruments and action has gained prominence.
In fact, presently there is now perhaps an abundance
of information that gets transmitted from the Central Banks to the public. This
goes to the extent that the Economist (July 22, 2004) recently raised
the question: "Do communicative central banks make financial markets lazy?"
and concluded that, "It’s not always good to talk."
The issue at hand for our countries relates
to our understanding of the depth and sophistication of our financial markets
and of the public at large. Should our communication strategies be similar to
that of our counterparts in more developed countries? Should our mode of monetary
policy making, e.g. inflation targeting, be similar to the current vogue elsewhere?
How confident can we be of our powers of modeling and forecasting? These are
the questions that we have to deal with and to then fashion our communication
strategies accordingly.
It is in this context that I attempt to review
the rationale, forms and practices of communication in central banking and try
to evaluate the Indian experience in this address. The rest of the address is
orgranised as follows. Section II looks into the general issues relating of
communication in central banks. Section III presents the Indian practices and
some of my personal reflections in this regard. Section IV gives the concluding
observations.
II. Necessity of Communication from the Central
Bankers
The issue of communication in central banks
is intimately interlinked with the mandate of the central bank. The more complex
is the mandate of the central bank, the more difficult as well as more important
is the communication. Illustratively, if the mandate of the central bank is
either inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting (as in a currency board
arrangement) then the objective of central bank is amply clear to the public.
Hence communication is necessary to express the commitment of the central bank
which is reflected through continuous action to maintain its credibility for
achieving these objectives. On the contrary, if the mandate is complex as it
is, for example, for the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India, then
the objectives may not be clear. Moreover, even if the objectives are known,
when there are multiple objectives there could be lack of clarity among the
relative weights and the changing relative weights of these objectives. In all
such cases, the central bank needs to communicate the objectives on a continuous
basis. Thus, benefit of central bank communication depends crucially on the
adopted policy approach (Bernanke, 2004). Specifically if the central bank follows
a simple feedback policy, then the private sector can easily infer its future
policies. In that case, there is no necessity of extensive communication by
the central bank except when the central bank decides to deviate substantially
from the rule. Central bankers in modern times hardly follow a simple feedback
rule – all central banks, including the inflation targetors, take into account
a wealth of information in deciding the future course of monetary policy and
follow what is termed as the ‘forecast-based approach’. In this case, the public
are not able to infer the likely course of policy so easily and need guidance
about the central bank’s perception of outlooks, risk assessments, and objectives.
Clear and transparent communication plays an important role in this case.
The need for communication from the central
banks also comes from another distinct source. Since the early 1990s, there
is an increasing emphasis on central bank independence. In a democratic polity,
a good deal of trust is placed in the central bank. Various countries in the
world have attained varying degrees of independence of their central banks.
In this context, questions of accountability and transparency are often raised.
Communication is at the heart of accountability. There is, thus, a need to understand
motives and procedures. When the political authorities give a clear mandate
to the central banks in bestowing independence then the communication policy
of the central bank is reasonably clear. A crucial issue about communication
policy is when and whom to communicate. Interestingly, when a central bank is
not independent, then it can communicate only to the controlling authority.
In case of an independent central bank the communication has to go to various
actors, viz., (a) public, (b) legislature or executive, (c) market participants.
The mode and method of communication to the participants would be distinctly
different for these three entities.
In a globalised world, it is not possible to
formulate monetary policy independent of international developments. Monetary
policy formulation has, thus, became more complex and interdependent (Mohan,
2002). Furthermore, in a globalised world with increasing communication from
the regulatory clubs like BIS or IMF, sophistication of the staff is perhaps
not too different among the countries. The question, however, is: how sophisticated
is the audience in understanding delicate nuances of the announcements of the
central banks. In fact, the effectiveness of monetary policy will crucially
depend on how well the public and market participants understand the central
bank signals. A related question is: do the central banks need to communicate
to different agents differently? What is good for the public may not be good
for the market participants. After all, "the markets thrive on volatility,
while the public dislike it quite intensely" (Blinder et al., 2000).
Monetary policy is most effective when markets
anticipate it correctly. Thus, a general consensus in the literature is that
more is the transparency, better it is. More open public disclosure of central
bank policies may enhance the efficiency of markets, through the following two
channels:
- First, greater information about how a central bank makes
policy decisions helps to reduce financial speculation.
- Second, clearer decision rules help to reduce the volatility
of markets, and, thus, enhance the predictability of future movements of financial
assets.
Furthermore, as the rational expectations literature
has taught us that the effects of a given policy action have to be defined within
a treatment of policy expectations. It is argued that an assumption about public
understanding of the future course of policy is a precondition for any coherent
analysis of current policy. Monetary policy is no exception to this general
rule. Besides, this literature also showed that monetary authorities cannot
utilize the short-run trade-off by "fooling" the public systemically,
and thereby established the necessity of transparency in communication of central
banks.
The forex market, because of its special nature,
could be an exception to this general rule of ‘more the merrier’ in case of
transparency. Communication in the area of exchange rate policy is special due
to a number of reasons (Blinder et al., 2000). First, apart from central
banks, governments in a number of cases have joint responsibility for exchange
rate policy. Second, in case of some exchange rate arrangements (such as, pure
pegs and pure floats), the need for central bank communication is absent. Third,
in the some instances where central banks decide to intervene in the foreign
exchange market in pursuit of monetary goals, secrecy may be defensible on the
grounds of effectiveness. I shall turn to this issue in the Indian context in
somewhat greater detail.
Another general issue is despite the multiplicity
of objectives there is only one instrument with the central banks, viz.,
a variant of the short term interest rate. Central banks all over the world
try to change the short term interest rates on the assumption that it will influence
the medium and long term interest rates - after all it is the medium and long
term rates that affect expectations and asset prices (Blinder, 1998). To a large
extent, this happens through explanations or forecasts. The effectiveness of
these will crucially depend on the degree of sophistication of the financial
market participants and the interlocutors.
The extent of transparency in central bank
communication has been dictated by the norms of openness in the body-politic
as well. Illustratively, Bank of England (BoE)’s information dissemination is
governed by the Freedom of Information Act 2000 of the U.K. This Act places
an obligation on public authorities to adopt and maintain a publication scheme.
Furthermore, with effect from January 2005, the Act provides a general right
of access to all types of recorded information held by public authorities and
sets out exemptions from that right. Similarly, in the U.S, as per the Freedom
of Information Act one can request information from the Fed.
Do central banks talk in an obscure language?
Is communication an exercise in obfuscation? Many of the central banks have
traditionally been portrayed as ‘tight-lipped, secretive, and cryptic’. It is
often alleged that central bank executives use complicated words to convey little
meaning. Blinder and others have alleged that, "Chairman Alan Greenspan
is credited with raising Fedspeak to a high art … even characterizing his own
way of communicating as mumbling with great incoherence" (Blinder et al,
2000). In one particular incident, Chairman Greenspan is reported to have told
a US senator, who claimed to have understood what the chairman had just said,
that "in that case, I must have misspoken".
Notwithstanding such allegations, there have
been great moves in fostering transparency in central communication in recent
years. A case in point is the publication of minutes of the Monetary Policy
Committee of the Bank of England. According to the Bank of England Act, 1998,
the BoE is supposed to 'publish minutes of the MPC meeting before the end of
the period of 6 weeks beginning with the day of the meeting.' Until October
1998 the minutes were published about five weeks after the meeting. The Monetary
Policy Committee announced in 1998 that it would publish the minutes of its
monthly meetings on the Wednesday of the second week after the meetings take
place. Apart from the Minutes, they publish the voting pattern of the individual
members as well.
Besides, central banks are increasingly learning
to communicate ‘perception of uncertainty’, as different from ‘ambiguity’. In
terms of communication there are various ways to tell the public that ‘we do
not know for certain’, which are clearly preferable to couching a statement
in ambiguous language. Illustratively, the BoE publishes its growth or inflation
forecasts with a differing margin of error – what is popularly called the "fan
chart". The fan chart with its increasing lighter shade (at the outward
direction) is a mode which clearly communicates the extent of uncertainty and
the degree of ignorance of the forecaster.
Another important hallmark of modern communication
is the emerging roles of web-sites and wire agencies. While the speed of communication
is still slightly slower than light, wire agencies put the communication from
the central banks on an almost real time basis. This has great ramifications
on the transmission of news and formation of expectation in the financial markets.
Having delineated the general principles let
me now turn to the Indian specifics on central bank communication.
III. Communication in RBI
I have already pointed out that more complex
is the mandate for the central bank more is the necessity of communication.
The Indian case would perhaps approximate that of a complex objective. After
all, apart from pursuing monetary policy, financial stability is one of the
overriding concerns of the RBI. Within the objective of monetary policy, both
control of inflation and providing adequate credit to the productive sectors
of the economy so as to foster growth are equally important. This apart, Reserve
Bank acts as a banking regulator, debt manager, government debt market regulator
and currency issuer. Faced with such multiple tasks and complex mandate, there
is an utmost necessity of clearer communication on the part of the Reserve Bank
of India.
What do we need to communicate? In a central
bank, there is necessity of three kinds of communication, viz., (a) policy
measures, (b) reasons behind such policy measures and (c) analysis of the economy.
RBI is engaged with all these three kinds of communication. In fact, by international
standards the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has a fairly extensive and transparent
communication system. The bi-annual policy statements have traditionally communicated
the Reserve Bank’s stands on monetary policy in the immediate future of six
months to one year. As of July this year, we have now begun a system of quarterly
reviews in addition to the bi-annual statements. The present practice of attaching
a review of macro economic developments to the annual policy and mid term review,
and to the quarterly reviews gives an expansive view of how the central bank
sees the economy. In the bi-annual policy meetings with the leading bankers,
the Governor while announcing the policy explains the rationale behind the measures
at length. These policy meetings are not one-way traffic. Each banker present
in the meeting interacts with the Governor to express his or her reaction to
the policy announcement. After the policy announcement is over, the Governor
addresses a press conference in the afternoon. The Deputy Governor in–charge
of the Monetary Policy Department normally gives live interviews to all the
major television channels on the same day. Governor also gives interviews to
print and electronic media over the next few days after the monetary policy
announcement. The only thing we still do not have is a live telecast of Governor’s
monetary policy announcements.
Apart from these policy statements communication
of RBI policy takes place through speeches of the Governor and Deputy Governors.
These speeches are devoted to issues concerning the economy as well as articulation
of the RBI’s policies. Interestingly, globally it has been found that the speeches
of the Governors of the central banks have been an important determinant of
the movement of the term structure of interest rates as changes in the repo
rate (Fracasso, Genberg and Wyplosz, 2003).
The typical mode in which RBI’s policy is
communicated to the regulated entities is departmental circulars. Depending
on the domain of operations the concerned department will issue a circular which
then is placed in the website without any delay. A typical complaint about the
circulars is often that they are written in the language that is not easily
comprehensible, and one needs to translate them into normal understandable language.
But that is a complaint against any formal statement couched in semi-legal language.
I do believe, however, that we can all do a much better job of writing circulars
in plain English shorn of tedious jargon.
The other major mode of dissemination of
RBI policy as well as its views on the economy is its Reports. Over the years
these Reports have turned out to be more analytical, transparent and forward
looking in their outlook. The two statutory reports of the Bank, the Annual
Report and the Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India have
evoked immense interest among the public, market participants as well as in
academia. The theme based Report on Currency and Finance is a platform
to articulate the research findings on an issue of topical interest. RBI
Occasional Papers has also emerged as a professional journal of refereed
research output of the RBI staff.
Over the years Committee Reports have emerged
as another plank of communication from RBI. The plethora of committees formed
by the RBI tries to communicate to the financial sector participants or markets.
Interestingly, many of these committees are conceptualized during the process
of either the annual or the mid-year Review of monetary policy, so that by the
time of the next policy its recommendations are available for consideration
or for implementation. While the general public is quite cynical about the formation
of any committee, as long as the authorities are serious about a transparent
acceptance or rejection of the recommendations of the committees, they remain
a major vehicle of the collective policy thinking.
An important feature of the RBI communication
policy is the almost real-time dissemination of information through its web-site.
The results of the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) of the day are posted
in the web-site by 12.30 P.M of the same day, by 2.30 P.M the reference rates
numbers are also placed in the web-site. By the next day morning the press release
on money market operations are out. Every Saturday by 12 noon the weekly statistical
supplement is placed in the web-site, giving a fairly detailed recent data-base
on the RBI and the financial sector. By the first of every month, the RBI Bulletin
of the month is out. All the regulatory and administrative circulars of different
Departments are placed on the web-site within half an hour of its finalization.
I think such a high speed of dissemination is possible due to the professional
skills of the internal staff of the RBI.
Another significant step towards transparency
of monetary policy implementation is formation of various Technical Advisory
Committees (TACs) in the RBI with representatives from market participants,
other regulators (like SEBI or IRDA) and experts. Over the years, three such
Technical Advisory committees have emerged – one on the money, forex and G-Sec
markets, the other on regulation, and a recent one on monetary policy. These
fora act as platforms where RBI comes to know about the needs of market players
and where the RBI is able to communicate its stand on these issues that may
not be strictly feasible in the formal modes of circulars. Many of the agenda
notes prepared for these meetings form the background of the bi-annual monetary
policy announcements. These apart, the Resource Management Discussions before
the Annual Policy act as another mode of a two-way communication between management
of commercial banks and RBI management. Meeting with the State Finance Secretaries
is another platform of communication.
I have tried to give a quick run-down of the
various means and modes of communication strategy and policy of the RBI. Needless
to say, in tune with the global trends the RBI too has become more transparent,
articulate and fast in communicating its policies and views on the economy.
Nevertheless, questions remain. What else could have been done? Could the RBI
have done better? What are impediments and hazards of communication in a central
bank? How fast does the market react to central bank’s announcements? Let me
now turn to some of these issues.
How fast does the central bank communication
influence the market? An interesting illustration of the impact of central bank
communication is perhaps the episode in stock market on May 17, 2004. On this
day, in the wake of change of Government, stock markets in India witnessed a
record fall in price, which triggered the index-based circuit breaker twice
during the day. The index-based circuit breaker triggered for the first time
at 10:16 AM when the Sensex touched a low of 4516. When trading resumed after
one hour at 11:15 AM, the Sensex opened at 4448 before touching the day's low
of 4227 at 11:19 AM – which triggered the circuit breaker for around two hours.
In normal circumstances, the Reserve Bank does not take a view about the stock
market. However, when confronted with the possibility of a spill-over in money,
G-Sec and forex markets RBI intervened on that day and two separate press releases
were issued by the Bank indicating, (a) constitution of an internal Task Force
under the Executive Director, Financial Market Committee to monitor the developments
in financial markets, and (b) assuring availability of Rupee and Forex Liquidity
(Annex). Thus, it was communicated that RBI was keeping in
touch with major settlement banks and the stock exchanges to ensure that payment
obligations on the exchanges were met and gave assurance of selling dollars
through agent banks in order to augment supply or intervene directly to meet
any demand supply imbalances. These press releases were placed on the web-site
around 2.00 P.M, but were released to wire agencies half an hour earlier and
were flashed in all the tickers by 1.30 P.M. Trading had resumed by that time
at 1:16 PM; subsequent to the flashing of the press release, the market witnessed
a quick recovery, before closing at 4505. Whereas I am not claiming the entire
recovery in the sensex on that day to be solely due to the communication from
the RBI, it is important to understand the role and power of such communications
when there are occasions when central bank communication can have immediate
impact on the market - that too on a market that is not strictly under its jurisdiction.
Central Bank communication has its flip
side too. The modern day paparazzi-syndrome haunts central bankers as well.
I am sure that many of the central bankers must have at some point of time must
have bitterly surprised to find in the next day’s newspaper some statement that
was ascribed to him or her – whereas the truth could be entirely opposite. Let
me illustrate this with a personal experience – one among the few I have experienced
during my stay in RBI. On August 14, 2004 I was at the Annual Citibank-Fitch
Debt Market Conference. On my entry I was chased by the journalists and one
of the questions I was asked was about the future rate of inflation. To the
best of my recollection I said that the present rise in inflation was predominantly
driven by supply-shocks and that we were monitoring the developments carefully.
To my utter surprise, a pink paper in the next day (i.e., August 15, 2004) reported
a story with the photographs of the President of India and mine side by side,
with the following catch lines:
- "President APJ Abdul Kalam said on Saturday that sustaining
a high eight per cent growth and containing inflation, now at 7.61 per cent,
were the major challenges for the country."
- "Meanwhile, Reserve Bank (RBI) deputy governor Rakesh
Mohan on Saturday reiterated that the authorities were expecting inflation
to fall to the earlier levels of five per cent."
The story implied that a Deputy Governor of
the RBI differed with the President of India on the stance of inflation on the
eve of the Independence Day! However, I was absolutely in a catch-22 situation
and was unable to issue a letter of protest as it would have given the signal
that the RBI is expecting the inflation to go up. Such are the travails of central
bank communication!
Similar experience is often found in interpretation
of various reports and policy statements. I am told that in recent years, the
Bank of Canada has instituted a media "lock-up" arrangement in which
the media can read key reports of the Bank of Canada and write their stories
prior to the official publication time. There are regular media briefings during
this lock-up period, where officials can deal with technical questions and clarify
other issues (purely on an unattributed basis) for the media. In Canada such
practice have resulted in a clear improvement in the in the quality of the reporting.
I am aware that in RBI as well, the Reports are released to the media a day
earlier to the release date but without any technical briefing. Perhaps we can
think of introducing this media lock-up arrangement inclusive of technical briefing
in RBI. This could reduce the work of issuing rejoinders about some perceived
misgiving on central bank policies.
In common parlance, often central communication
is seen in an insider-outsider context. It is assumed that central bank communication
refers to what the central bank chooses to tell the general public, market participants,
experts, or the media. What happens to the communication internally? Or, to
borrow from the management literature, how do we "sell the brand inside"
(Mitchell, 2001)? While information is doled to the employees in form of memos,
news letter, many an occasion the employees of an organization are unable to
realize the uniqueness of the brand. Central banks are no exception to this
general trend of the corporate world. The policy and research wings of the RBI
would need to pay particular attention to the dissemination and effective communication
of the RBI policies to internal staff and play a pro-active role. I put forward
the following ideas in this context:
- It would be useful in this context to arrange internal seminars
/ talks in all regional offices and training colleges of the RBI after monetary
policy announcements or publication of important Reports – whether regular
(e.g., Annual Report or Report on Currency & Finance) or
Committee Reports.
- Another idea could be to release FAQs (frequently asked questions)
on any policy matter in the website. There could be educational resources
as well as done in FED (such as, "In Plain English: Making Sense
of the Federal Reserve", or material on personal financial education).
- Still another idea could be to introduce a working paper
series with a clear disclaimer that ‘these are the finding of the individual
researcher and not of the RBI’. The unfortunate thing about the domestic Press
is that they often choose to disregard the disclaimer, and start ascribing
any research finding to the RBI.
- Finally, many of the internal notes of various departments
are of immense analytical value; subject to the caveats of confidentiality
(which I am sure would be exceptions rather than rules), many such notes could
be made available internally. Departmental sites in the RBI Intranet
could be effectively utilized in this.
While the management normally makes policy statements
to the outside world, in an increasingly liberalizing economy, staffs often
act as ambassadors of the institution – in that sense internal communication
could act as a conduit for external communication as well.
A look at the communication policy of the central
banks in advanced countries brings out two important features. Many of the central
banks have a monetary policy committee with some form or the other, and many
of them have an inflation report and a financial stability report. The question
is how far do we need them? While the Inflation Report is a hallmark of many
inflation targeting economies, it is by no means universal – the same is also
true for financial stability report. Nevertheless, a critical question in this
context is publication of the central bank’s forecasts. Almost all central banks
have some internal forecasts about the inflation and growth rate of the economy.
The inflation targeting countries tend to attach heavy emphasis on the publication
of forecasts. These forecasts are based on some economic models, and buttressed
by the policy maker’s expectation of future. Thus, when and if, we think in
favour of introducing an inflation report for India, we need to sort out the
prerequisite of a detailed macro model as well as commitment to a band of inflation
– not just a point of time (which in any way is announced in the bi-annual policy
statements), bur a path for the year(s) to come. As far as financial stability
report is concerned, it is heartening to note that Report on Trend and Progress
of Banking in India, 2003-04 has introduced a chapter on this topic. As
the Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India is a statutory report,
the question arises whether we need to introduce an additional financial stability
report, or we need to couch the contents of this report suitably, so that it
effectively becomes the financial stability report.
As far as the monetary policy committees are
concerned, it may be noted that the Advisory Group on ‘Transparency in Monetary
and Financial Policies’ (for the Standing Committee on International Financial
Standards and Codes), with Shri M. Narasimham as Chairman and Shri S.S. Tarapore
as a member, recommended setting up of a monetary policy committee in RBI.
Consequently, in order to further strengthen
the consultative process in monetary policy, the RBI has set up a Technical
Advisory Committee on Monetary Policy in July 2005 with external experts in
the areas of monetary economics, central banking, financial markets and public
finance. The Technical Advisory Committee comprises the Governor as the Chairman,
the Deputy Governor in charge of Monetary Policy as an internal member, and
four external members in the committee. Other Deputy Governor(s) and any expert
depending on the requirement of the subject will be special invitees. The Committee
would meet at least once in a quarter. The Technical Advisory Committee is a
right step towards enhanced transparency for communication from the RBI.
IV. Concluding Observations
Central Bank communication has come a long way.
From the secretive central bankers, allegations are now made that they are talking
too much. Central banks have become more transparent and today there is abundance
of material about the central banks’ intended action plan.
What is the message then? While nobody doubts
that necessity and transparency of central banks communication, the question
is how do we go about it? In conclusion, I can do no better but to quote from
Adam Posen of the Institute of International Economics, who succinctly summarized
the need for central bank communication: