Publications

PDF - Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey ()
Date : Apr 08, 2026
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of March 2026 round of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during February 25 to March 10, 2026, in 19 major cities, with 6,075 responses.

Highlights:

  1. The current median inflation perception of households inched up by 30 basis points (bps) to 7.2 per cent as compared to the previous round. Their inflation expectations for the three months and one year ahead rose by 60 bps and 20 bps to 8.5 per cent and 8.8 per cent, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For both the short-term and one-year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating a rise in general prices and inflation increased for the second consecutive round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  3. Households expect price and inflationary pressures across most of the product groups including food product, non-food product and cost of services for both the time horizons [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1a and 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.7 0.87 77.8 0.90 74.6 0.90 78.6 0.91 81.6 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 54.7 1.15 51.5 1.20 50.7 1.14 54.6 1.20 57.2 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 20.8 0.86 23.1 0.89 20.2 0.87 20.6 0.87 20.9 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.47 3.1 0.36 3.7 0.38 3.3 0.37 3.6 0.40
No changes in prices 17.3 0.84 18.5 0.85 21.5 0.84 18.9 0.88 16.8 0.89
Decline in prices 2.0 0.27 3.7 0.43 3.9 0.41 2.5 0.35 1.5 0.24
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.1 0.77 79.0 0.90 74.9 0.84 80.0 0.81 83.8 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 57.8 1.09 51.5 1.22 50.5 1.04 55.7 1.11 59.4 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 18.3 0.79 22.2 1.00 18.2 0.77 18.9 0.81 18.4 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 7.0 0.54 5.3 0.45 6.2 0.49 5.4 0.46 6.0 0.52
No changes in prices 12.2 0.69 14.2 0.80 16.1 0.72 14.5 0.71 12.4 0.68
Decline in prices 4.7 0.40 6.8 0.53 8.9 0.58 5.5 0.46 3.8 0.37
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.6 0.89 73.4 0.91 67.8 0.95 72.2 0.93 77.6 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 53.3 1.07 49.4 1.19 44.3 1.08 48.8 1.16 54.0 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 15.3 0.74 18.7 0.89 17.6 0.76 18.3 0.82 18.1 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 7.0 0.54 5.3 0.45 5.9 0.46 5.1 0.43 5.5 0.45
No changes in prices 20.2 0.82 20.1 0.80 24.7 0.87 22.7 0.87 19.0 0.86
Decline in prices 4.2 0.39 6.5 0.54 7.5 0.54 5.2 0.46 3.4 0.34
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 66.7 0.98 67.8 0.97 53.2 1.02 61.3 1.05 65.4 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 45.2 1.11 49.5 1.16 36.1 1.03 42.4 1.10 44.7 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 15.8 0.74 14.1 0.69 13.4 0.70 15.1 0.74 15.9 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.51 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.38 3.9 0.36 4.9 0.44
No changes in prices 24.6 0.90 21.5 0.83 29.4 0.91 28.2 0.99 25.6 0.91
Decline in prices 8.6 0.52 10.7 0.62 17.4 0.75 10.4 0.59 9.0 0.56
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.0 0.88 77.1 0.88 77.4 0.86 78.5 0.86 78.4 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 56.5 1.09 54.9 1.15 54.8 1.12 57.8 1.10 57.8 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 16.0 0.73 18.9 0.87 17.9 0.78 17.5 0.76 17.0 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.48 3.4 0.34 4.7 0.40 3.2 0.34 3.6 0.37
No changes in prices 19.1 0.84 18.7 0.81 18.5 0.81 17.9 0.81 19.1 0.88
Decline in prices 2.9 0.34 4.2 0.41 4.1 0.39 3.5 0.36 2.5 0.30
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 69.3 0.98 66.1 1.00 63.8 0.97 68.4 0.96 69.8 1.01
Price increase more than current rate 49.0 1.10 46.2 1.17 43.3 1.11 47.3 1.14 48.7 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 14.9 0.71 15.7 0.72 16.1 0.73 17.5 0.79 17.2 0.72
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.46 4.2 0.40 4.4 0.42 3.6 0.38 3.9 0.37
No changes in prices 27.8 0.95 30.0 0.98 32.5 0.95 28.3 0.96 27.9 0.98
Decline in prices 3.0 0.34 3.8 0.43 3.7 0.39 3.2 0.37 2.3 0.28
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.7 0.67 86.8 0.79 83.6 0.75 88.8 0.69 90.0 0.66
Price increase more than current rate 65.4 1.12 61.8 1.22 60.0 1.17 63.6 1.13 67.5 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.88 21.7 0.94 20.6 0.88 22.9 0.93 19.6 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.44 3.3 0.36 3.1 0.34 2.3 0.30 2.8 0.35
No changes in prices 8.4 0.62 10.0 0.70 13.0 0.65 8.5 0.60 8.3 0.61
Decline in prices 1.9 0.27 3.2 0.41 3.4 0.41 2.6 0.34 1.7 0.27
Food Product                  
Prices will increase 87.9 0.66 83.3 0.95 81.8 0.80 85.5 0.75 87.4 0.68
Price increase more than current rate 60.8 1.09 56.5 1.34 54.0 1.14 58.9 1.17 61.1 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 21.1 0.83 22.8 1.03 22.9 0.86 22.2 0.90 21.5 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 6.1 0.49 4.0 0.41 4.9 0.44 4.5 0.42 4.8 0.45
No changes in prices 8.9 0.58 11.5 0.80 12.8 0.66 10.1 0.63 9.3 0.60
Decline in prices 3.2 0.33 5.2 0.49 5.4 0.47 4.4 0.43 3.2 0.36
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.6 0.78 79.7 0.96 78.1 0.82 80.5 0.83 83.7 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 56.7 1.11 53.6 1.27 52.7 1.11 56.5 1.17 58.6 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 20.0 0.83 21.6 0.96 20.1 0.80 19.9 0.83 21.2 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 6.0 0.50 4.4 0.42 5.2 0.45 4.2 0.40 3.9 0.40
No changes in prices 13.9 0.71 15.4 0.84 16.6 0.72 15.4 0.75 13.4 0.73
Decline in prices 3.5 0.35 4.9 0.46 5.3 0.48 4.1 0.41 2.9 0.33
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 75.4 0.90 78.1 0.90 68.0 0.95 72.9 0.91 75.3 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 51.9 1.12 58.0 1.17 46.1 1.12 51.4 1.14 52.6 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 17.9 0.78 16.5 0.81 17.4 0.77 17.8 0.80 18.6 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 0.46 3.7 0.37 4.5 0.44 3.7 0.37 4.1 0.42
No changes in prices 17.9 0.78 14.2 0.72 21.1 0.80 19.3 0.84 18.7 0.80
Decline in prices 6.6 0.48 7.7 0.57 11.0 0.65 7.8 0.53 6.0 0.45
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 88.3 0.67 87.5 0.70 87.9 0.67 88.0 0.65 89.4 0.60
Price increase more than current rate 66.5 1.03 63.8 1.14 64.9 1.08 66.9 1.06 67.0 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 17.6 0.80 20.3 0.93 19.2 0.86 18.4 0.83 18.5 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.39 3.4 0.35 3.8 0.37 2.8 0.31 3.9 0.41
No changes in prices 9.3 0.60 9.1 0.58 8.6 0.56 8.8 0.56 8.9 0.56
Decline in prices 2.3 0.30 3.4 0.39 3.5 0.40 3.2 0.37 1.7 0.25
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 82.4 0.79 81.2 0.83 79.0 0.85 81.9 0.80 82.6 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 59.4 1.07 58.4 1.15 55.1 1.16 57.2 1.16 57.2 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 17.6 0.79 18.5 0.83 19.2 0.83 20.5 0.85 20.8 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.45 4.4 0.41 4.7 0.45 4.1 0.39 4.6 0.43
No changes in prices 15.0 0.74 15.4 0.77 17.6 0.77 15.2 0.75 15.4 0.75
Decline in prices 2.6 0.31 3.4 0.42 3.4 0.41 2.9 0.36 2.1 0.27
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Mar-26
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.2 0.09 7.2 0.13 9.3 0.09 8.5 0.13 9.1 0.11 8.8 0.15
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.3 0.13 7.4 0.17 9.4 0.13 8.7 0.18 9.3 0.15 9.0 0.25
Female 8.1 0.12 7.0 0.22 9.3 0.13 8.5 0.18 9.1 0.16 8.8 0.22
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 7.3 0.39 6.2 0.31 8.0 0.35 7.4 0.26 7.9 0.51 7.7 0.48
Other Employees 8.4 0.19 7.6 0.25 9.4 0.19 8.8 0.26 9.4 0.21 9.2 0.38
Self Employed 8.5 0.20 7.6 0.37 9.8 0.21 9.3 0.49 9.4 0.23 9.4 0.48
Homemaker 8.1 0.14 7.0 0.27 9.3 0.15 8.6 0.21 9.0 0.19 8.9 0.31
Retired Persons 9.0 0.33 8.6 0.64 10.2 0.35 10.1 0.43 9.4 0.40 9.7 0.60
Daily Workers 8.5 0.26 7.3 0.32 9.3 0.28 8.3 0.34 8.5 0.36 8.0 0.36
Other category 7.4 0.17 6.3 0.24 8.5 0.19 7.7 0.21 8.6 0.22 8.2 0.22
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.4 0.16 6.4 0.23 8.4 0.18 7.7 0.18 8.7 0.20 8.2 0.24
25 to 30 years 8.0 0.18 7.2 0.21 9.0 0.20 8.3 0.23 9.0 0.23 8.9 0.40
30 to 35 years 8.2 0.18 7.1 0.27 9.4 0.20 8.5 0.37 9.4 0.23 8.9 0.41
35 to 40 years 8.1 0.19 7.2 0.31 9.4 0.20 8.9 0.31 9.1 0.24 9.1 0.45
40 to 45 years 8.5 0.20 7.7 0.34 9.9 0.22 9.5 0.45 9.4 0.25 9.5 0.50
45 to 50 years 8.2 0.24 7.0 0.34 9.3 0.23 8.2 0.35 9.0 0.27 8.4 0.32
50 to 55 years 8.6 0.24 8.1 0.44 9.9 0.27 9.3 0.56 9.5 0.31 9.2 0.59
55 to 60 years 8.3 0.29 6.8 0.49 9.3 0.29 8.2 0.39 8.4 0.38 8.1 0.44
60 years and above 9.0 0.23 8.7 0.51 10.1 0.25 10.0 0.35 9.3 0.31 9.8 0.49
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 5.9 0.23 5.5 0.12 6.6 0.33 6.3 0.24 6.3 0.38 6.3 0.35
Bengaluru 5.4 0.16 5.1 0.10 7.0 0.19 6.3 0.28 7.4 0.23 7.0 0.31
Bhopal 7.4 0.48 6.1 0.59 9.1 0.55 8.4 1.00 8.6 0.67 7.5 1.29
Bhubaneswar 7.9 0.44 7.5 0.94 9.9 0.52 9.4 0.84 10.2 0.60 9.6 1.13
Chennai 7.5 0.32 6.7 0.44 8.6 0.37 7.9 0.42 9.4 0.42 9.5 0.65
Delhi 9.4 0.24 9.4 0.58 10.3 0.26 10.2 0.21 9.6 0.30 10.2 0.32
Guwahati 7.8 0.53 6.8 0.78 8.5 0.54 7.5 0.74 8.7 0.55 8.5 0.88
Hyderabad 7.1 0.28 6.0 0.32 8.6 0.27 7.7 0.39 8.5 0.31 8.2 0.44
Jaipur 7.1 0.34 6.7 0.36 8.1 0.36 7.7 0.39 8.0 0.40 8.0 0.31
Jammu 9.6 0.91 9.8 1.16 8.0 0.89 6.8 1.45 8.5 0.84 7.7 1.63
Kolkata 10.3 0.29 10.2 0.24 11.3 0.27 11.1 0.56 10.8 0.33 11.2 0.67
Lucknow 8.2 0.45 7.7 0.61 9.1 0.56 8.6 0.69 8.8 0.53 8.6 0.72
Mumbai 9.7 0.28 9.0 0.40 10.9 0.27 10.5 0.14 10.6 0.28 10.7 0.20
Nagpur 7.5 0.44 6.9 0.56 8.6 0.51 8.1 0.67 7.8 0.94 7.9 1.25
Patna 6.9 0.42 6.2 0.54 7.7 0.46 6.9 0.57 7.1 0.56 6.5 0.69
Thiruvananthapuram 6.7 0.66 5.6 0.28 8.3 0.68 7.1 0.60 9.3 0.75 8.4 0.92
Chandigarh 8.4 0.61 8.0 0.71 9.4 0.81 9.0 0.96 9.1 0.81 8.7 0.92
Ranchi 7.7 0.43 7.2 0.40 8.3 0.36 7.8 0.35 8.1 0.65 8.1 0.60
Raipur 8.4 0.68 8.2 1.04 10.4 0.69 10.4 0.53 9.6 0.49 10.4 0.64
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Mar-25 8.5 0.08 7.8 0.11 9.5 0.08 8.9 0.13 9.4 0.11 9.7 0.23
May-25 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Jul-25 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9.0 0.39
Sep-25 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.0 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Nov-25 7.7 0.08 6.6 0.14 8.4 0.08 7.6 0.10 8.1 0.10 8.0 0.15
Jan-26 7.8 0.08 6.9 0.16 8.9 0.09 7.9 0.12 8.9 0.11 8.6 0.15
Mar-26 8.2 0.09 7.2 0.13 9.3 0.09 8.5 0.13 9.1 0.11 8.8 0.15
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Household durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Mar-25 64.4 67.6 60.1 65.0 68.8
May-25 63.5 64.8 60.4 63.6 67.4
Jul-25 65.9 70.5 48.7 50.9 62.7
Sep-25 59.6 63.8 65.3 64.3 71.8
Nov-25 62.4 62.6 55.1 62.1 65.4
Jan-26 65.9 66.6 60.0 64.8 68.6
Mar-26 65.5 66.5 59.0 64.6 66.4
One Year Ahead
Mar-25 74.3 72.7 67.0 75.4 76.9
May-25 74.4 70.5 68.6 72.7 75.4
Jul-25 81.6 78.1 69.5 61.9 61.8
Sep-25 75.5 67.8 71.4 69.7 73.0
Nov-25 83.4 70.3 61.7 71.0 71.1
Jan-26 71.7 71.0 64.5 73.0 72.8
Mar-26 73.6 73.8 68.0 74.7 74.2

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-26
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 6 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 16
1-<2 3 30 39 10 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 87
2-<3 2 12 138 107 63 17 2 8 11 6 26 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 394
3-<4 1 3 10 122 102 79 20 1 0 1 3 1 1 1 0 9 44 0 398
4-<5 0 0 7 9 150 121 50 7 5 0 4 3 13 4 2 11 1 0 387
5-<6 0 3 17 23 13 519 235 230 85 7 94 1 1 1 0 7 30 0 1266
6-<7 0 0 0 3 6 11 152 107 91 20 23 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 416
7-<8 0 0 3 2 2 5 6 219 99 47 66 1 4 0 3 1 1 0 459
8-<9 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 7 153 67 144 15 16 4 1 3 7 0 421
9-<10 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 77 48 14 25 3 2 2 2 0 179
10-<11 0 2 5 1 1 48 10 4 10 10 426 49 205 28 6 181 86 1 1073
11-<12 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 13 7 2 4 3 2 0 36
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 37 7 8 15 9 0 82
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 5 3 7 1 0 18
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 5 0 10
15-<16 0 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 1 70 90 0 176
>=16 4 0 1 1 0 35 0 1 1 0 13 0 1 2 0 11 583 4 657
Total 16 54 222 280 344 848 477 587 462 236 853 99 317 58 33 322 861 6 6075

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-26
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 5 2 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
1-<2 9 7 43 17 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 87
2-<3 46 3 55 87 86 100 6 5 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 394
3-<4 28 1 3 64 70 169 34 10 9 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 398
4-<5 44 0 6 7 72 97 64 34 17 1 11 1 9 1 2 11 10 0 387
5-<6 125 2 7 10 18 289 158 240 143 25 193 4 7 1 0 12 32 0 1266
6-<7 41 1 0 3 1 8 67 85 101 39 56 1 11 1 0 0 1 0 416
7-<8 59 1 0 1 2 6 2 100 83 54 103 12 17 1 10 5 2 1 459
8-<9 39 1 0 0 0 0 5 4 76 47 125 27 65 5 7 11 9 0 421
9-<10 20 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 37 39 23 34 6 4 10 3 0 179
10-<11 90 0 0 2 2 17 2 3 7 2 260 30 183 57 21 244 153 0 1073
11-<12 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 10 4 4 8 5 1 0 36
12-<13 7 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 20 9 11 18 15 0 82
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 6 3 2 2 0 18
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 5 0 10
15-<16 16 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 39 116 0 176
>=16 69 0 1 0 0 11 0 1 0 0 9 0 1 1 0 7 557 0 657
Total 601 18 118 192 257 712 339 483 440 207 811 109 353 92 69 365 907 2 6075

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on February 06, 2026. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.