Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the March 2020 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. The survey was conducted during February 27 – March 7, 2020 in 13 major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. Perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and own income and spending are obtained from 5,365 households across these cities. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence, as measured by the current situation index (CSI), in early March 2020 remained broadly close to the all-time low, which was recorded in the previous survey round. Expectations for the year ahead, as gauged by the future expectations index (FEI)2, were largely unchanged from the last round (Chart 1). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data II. Sentiments on the general economic situation, employment scenario and household income remained pessimistic (Tables 1, 2 and 5); however, there were some improvements in expectations for the year ahead. III. Households perceived some easing in the inflation pressure (Table 3 and 4); however, sentiments on discretionary spending remained in the contraction zone (Table 8).
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 46.2 | 21.3 | 32.5 | 13.7 | 66.4 | 15.8 | 17.8 | 48.6 | | May-19 | 38.8 | 23.6 | 37.7 | 1.1 | 61.4 | 17.7 | 20.9 | 40.5 | | Jul-19 | 37.4 | 24.2 | 38.4 | -1.0 | 59.4 | 16.0 | 24.6 | 34.8 | | Sep-19 | 33.5 | 18.6 | 47.9 | -14.4 | 53.2 | 15.0 | 31.8 | 21.4 | | Nov-19 | 30.0 | 18.4 | 51.6 | -21.6 | 48.9 | 16.5 | 34.7 | 14.2 | | Jan-20 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 54.9 | -27.8 | 48.8 | 14.3 | 36.9 | 11.9 | | Mar-20 | 28.4 | 19.3 | 52.3 | -23.9 | 49.8 | 15.6 | 34.7 | 15.1 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 41.1 | 21.7 | 37.2 | 3.9 | 65.3 | 15.9 | 18.9 | 46.4 | | May-19 | 33.7 | 22.1 | 44.2 | -10.5 | 59.3 | 17.6 | 23.1 | 36.2 | | Jul-19 | 32.5 | 21.9 | 45.6 | -13.1 | 56.7 | 17.5 | 25.8 | 30.9 | | Sep-19 | 28.0 | 19.5 | 52.5 | -24.5 | 51.2 | 15.4 | 33.4 | 17.8 | | Nov-19 | 24.4 | 18.1 | 57.5 | -33.1 | 46.3 | 17.7 | 36.0 | 10.3 | | Jan-20 | 24.6 | 17.8 | 57.7 | -33.1 | 48.4 | 16.3 | 35.4 | 13.0 | | Mar-20 | 25.2 | 19.1 | 55.7 | -30.5 | 48.8 | 17.1 | 34.1 | 14.7 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 77.8 | 16.4 | 5.8 | -72.0 | 68.7 | 20.5 | 10.9 | -57.8 | | May-19 | 81.6 | 14.1 | 4.3 | -77.3 | 70.3 | 18.7 | 11.0 | -59.3 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | -78.4 | 73.9 | 16.1 | 10.0 | -63.9 | | Sep-19 | 86.1 | 10.6 | 3.3 | -82.8 | 75.9 | 13.8 | 10.3 | -65.6 | | Nov-19 | 86.8 | 10.2 | 2.9 | -83.9 | 78.0 | 14.1 | 7.9 | -70.1 | | Jan-20 | 90.6 | 7.6 | 1.9 | -88.7 | 76.9 | 12.9 | 10.2 | -66.7 | | Mar-20 | 87.2 | 10.3 | 2.6 | -84.6 | 78.1 | 14.2 | 7.7 | -70.4 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 72.5 | 20.0 | 7.6 | -64.9 | 72.9 | 20.8 | 6.3 | -66.6 | | May-19 | 74.4 | 20.8 | 4.8 | -69.6 | 76.7 | 18.5 | 4.8 | -71.9 | | Jul-19 | 72.5 | 22.3 | 5.2 | -67.3 | 77.8 | 18.0 | 4.1 | -73.7 | | Sep-19 | 74.2 | 19.5 | 6.3 | -67.9 | 77.9 | 16.1 | 6.1 | -71.8 | | Nov-19 | 77.2 | 17.4 | 5.5 | -71.7 | 77.3 | 17.3 | 5.4 | -71.9 | | Jan-20 | 84.9 | 11.2 | 4.0 | -80.9 | 80.3 | 14.7 | 5.0 | -75.3 | | Mar-20 | 80.8 | 15.7 | 3.5 | -77.3 | 75.6 | 20.3 | 4.1 | -71.5 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 30.1 | 50.0 | 19.9 | 10.2 | 60.8 | 33.4 | 5.7 | 55.1 | | May-19 | 29.0 | 50.2 | 20.8 | 8.2 | 58.9 | 35.1 | 6.0 | 52.9 | | Jul-19 | 25.8 | 51.3 | 22.9 | 2.9 | 55.4 | 37.7 | 6.9 | 48.5 | | Sep-19 | 25.0 | 48.3 | 26.7 | -1.7 | 53.0 | 37.4 | 9.6 | 43.4 | | Nov-19 | 24.1 | 49.2 | 26.7 | -2.6 | 52.8 | 38.9 | 8.3 | 44.5 | | Jan-20 | 21.9 | 51.2 | 26.9 | -5.0 | 51.9 | 38.9 | 9.2 | 42.7 | | Mar-20 | 22.7 | 52.4 | 24.9 | -2.2 | 52.0 | 40.2 | 7.8 | 44.2 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 70.1 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 67.0 | 77.5 | 19.9 | 2.6 | 74.9 | | May-19 | 68.6 | 28.0 | 3.4 | 65.2 | 74.7 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 71.8 | | Jul-19 | 71.7 | 25.0 | 3.4 | 68.3 | 76.8 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 73.6 | | Sep-19 | 74.1 | 22.0 | 3.8 | 70.3 | 77.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 73.0 | | Nov-19 | 73.2 | 23.4 | 3.4 | 69.8 | 77.4 | 19.0 | 3.6 | 73.8 | | Jan-20 | 76.3 | 20.5 | 3.2 | 73.1 | 78.7 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 74.7 | | Mar-20 | 72.6 | 24.0 | 3.4 | 69.2 | 75.8 | 20.7 | 3.5 | 72.3 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 78.6 | 18.2 | 3.2 | 75.4 | 83.4 | 14.3 | 2.3 | 81.1 | | May-19 | 80.0 | 17.1 | 2.9 | 77.1 | 80.7 | 16.5 | 2.8 | 77.9 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.7 | 2.6 | 79.1 | 82.9 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 80.1 | | Sep-19 | 83.8 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 81.2 | 83.0 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 79.7 | | Nov-19 | 83.6 | 13.6 | 2.7 | 80.9 | 83.0 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 79.9 | | Jan-20 | 85.3 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 82.7 | 83.7 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 80.3 | | Mar-20 | 83.0 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 80.6 | 82.1 | 15.0 | 2.9 | 79.2 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Mar-19 | 36.3 | 43.3 | 20.4 | 15.9 | 46.1 | 37.6 | 16.3 | 29.8 | | May-19 | 32.7 | 40.3 | 27.0 | 5.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 | 23.3 | 16.1 | | Jul-19 | 31.0 | 44.9 | 24.1 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 21.6 | 14.6 | | Sep-19 | 29.9 | 40.0 | 30.1 | -0.2 | 34.7 | 39.2 | 26.0 | 8.7 | | Nov-19 | 27.5 | 42.4 | 30.1 | -2.6 | 33.4 | 43.0 | 23.5 | 9.9 | | Jan-20 | 28.0 | 37.3 | 34.6 | -6.6 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 27.9 | 6.4 | | Mar-20 | 27.7 | 42.0 | 30.3 | -2.6 | 32.4 | 43.5 | 24.1 | 8.3 |
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