Monetary policy was tightened in a
calibrated manner through 2010-11 with
transmission improving distinctly in Q4 on the
back of liquidity deficit. While growth reverted
to its recent trend, inflation remained above
trend on the back of supply-side shocks. In the
event, policy response focused on containing
the spillover of supply side inflation and
anchoring inflation expectations. This was
important as cost-push pressures were
significant and pricing power prevailed amidst
strong aggregate demand.
2. Core inflationary pressures were
effectively contained in the earlier part of the
year but new shocks emerged: first in terms of
vegetable prices spiking up in November and
December 2010 and then spiraling up of global
fuel and non-fuel prices. These supply-side
shocks coming in quick succession elevated the
path of inflation, and in the process price
pressures became broad-based in the later part
of the year.
Global Economic Conditions
Recovery outpacing expectations but oil,
Euro zone risks remain
3. Even as recovery remains multi-speed,
growth in both advanced economies and
emerging/developing economies outpaced
initial expectations. This raises hope for
sustained, though moderately paced global
recovery during 2011, with risks emerging from
high oil prices. The Indian economy continued
to outperform most emerging markets during
2010-11 retaining its position as the second
fastest growing economy, after China, amongst
the G-20 countries. China and India contributed nearly a quarter of the incremental world
output.
4. The IMF World Economic Outlook of April
2011 has left its global growth forecast
unaltered from its January 2011 estimate of 4.4
per cent for 2011 and 4.5 per cent for 2012. It
has, however, projected a 36 per cent rise in
global crude oil prices in 2011 and noted the
potential of oil prices to surprise further on the
upside. This is a key downside risk to growth.
Sovereign balance sheet risks in the Euro zone
and dormant real estate markets have also been
cited as downside risks to growth in advanced
economies (AEs).
Inflation risks on the rise, and not just in
the emerging markets
5. Global inflation risks have risen
significantly over the last quarter, not just in
emerging markets but also in advanced
economies. The pressures for rate cycle turning
even in advanced countries can no longer be
ignored with ECB raising its policy rates by 25
bps on April 7, 2011. Inflation in several
emerging markets, especially in Asia, is now
running above trend. As a result, central banks
of several emerging markets have significantly
tightened monetary policy. Besides India, these
include China, Brazil, Israel, Thailand and
Korea.
6. Notwithstanding the monetary tightening,
risks to inflation in most countries are skewed
on the upside. These risks emanate from
commodity prices across food, fuel, and other
industrial inputs that have firmed up
significantly over the year.
Indian Economy : Developments
and Outlook
Output
Activity levels remain strong
7. GDP growth during 2010-11 reverted to
the high growth trajectory. Growth had
moderated in the preceding two years as the
global economy slowed down as a result of
global financial crisis. The growth during 2010-
11 reflects a rebound in agriculture and
sustained levels of activity in industry and
services.
8. Overall growth indicators are mixed.
Prospects for agriculture appear encouraging,
given IMD’s forecast of a normal monsoon and
a good outturn of Rabi in 2010-11. Industrial
growth, however, moderated in the second half
largely reflecting the waning of base effects and
contraction in capital goods output. The
deceleration has, however, been exacerbated by
few items with volatile output. Other indicators,
such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI),
direct and indirect tax collections, merchandise
exports and bank credit suggest that the growth
momentum persists. Indicators on services
sector activity also remain robust, not
withstanding some deceleration in the
government-spending related services.
However, high energy and commodity prices
may impact output and investment climate, and
pose a threat to maintaining high growth at a
time when the investment momentum may be
slowing down.
Aggregate Demand
Aggregate demand robust even as
government spending decelerates on
fiscal consolidation
9. Aggregate demand accelerated further in
2010-11 even as rebalancing took place from
government consumption spending to private
consumption and investment. Momentum in
overall demand conditions was reflected in indicators like corporate sales growth,
improving capacity utilisation, higher
employment and pricing power with the
producers. However, aggregate investment
moderated somewhat in Q3 of 2010-11. This
slackening was also reflected in the contraction
in capital goods output and weaker new project
investment indicated by banks. This process
needs to be reversed to bolster the potential
growth of the economy.
10. Though revenue buoyancy was witnessed
in 2010-11, there are risks to the deficit
projections of 2011-12 as subsidies are likely
to exceed the budgetary provisions, given
sharply higher international commodity prices.
The process of fiscal consolidation needs to be
carried forward on both revenue and
expenditures sides, with a sharper focus on the
latter. Containment of subsidies by raising
domestic prices of petroleum products and
fertilizers should be a building block of this
strategy.
External Sector
CAD risks moderate, but have not
dissipated
11. Improvement in exports during 2010-11
facilitated moderation of the current account
deficit (CAD). However, if oil and other
commodity prices stay elevated, CAD may
widen in 2011-12. This will necessitate higher
external financing. The dominance of more
volatile portfolio equity flows requires that CAD
be contained within prudent limits, especially
as the net international liabilities and the debt
creating flows have risen. Overall,
diversification in exports and robust invisible
earnings are expected to bulwark in any events
of capital flow reversals.
12. While global recovery remains on course,
the size and direction of capital flows can be
impacted by the pace of US recovery, the
reconstruction in Japan and the balance sheet
risks in the Euro zone.
Monetary and Liquidity Conditions
Tightening helps keep stable monetary
conditions
13. As inflation stayed above the indicated
projections during 2010-11, monetary policy
was continually tightened through the year.
Monetary and liquidity conditions responded
to the policy measures, though with a lag.
14. Even as reserve money growth remained
strong, money supply growth stayed below
indicative trajectory. Lower growth in
aggregate deposits and reduction in money
multiplier emanating from higher currency
demand led to this divergent trend. Credit
expansion was above the indicative trajectory
for the year, though it moderated towards the
later part. Deposit growth which lagged behind
the credit expansion, picked up in Q4 of 2010-
11, responding to the rise interest rates.
Liquidity conditions were tight for most part of
the year with some easing towards the last
quarter.
Financial Markets
Stronger monetary transmission impacts
interest rates
15. Interest rates firmed up responding to
monetary policy signals. Banks progressively
passed on the increased costs in the form of
higher lending rates. Monetary transmission
was observed to be strong particularly in the
Q4 of 2010-11.
16. Conditions in various financial markets
remained orderly. Asset prices generally
remained range bound. Equity markets
witnessed good buying interest from FIIs during
July-November 2010 followed by some
correction alongwith greater volatility. While
price correction has not materialized, house
price pressures remained moderate in Q3 of
2010-11.
Price Situation
Inflation persists with supply-side shocks
and return of manufacturing inflation
17. Headline inflation exhibited strong
persistence in 2010-11. It reflected both supply
shocks and gradual generalisation of price
pressures. The generalization was reflected in
non-food manufacturing price pressures from
December 2010 as producers were able to pass
on cost increases amidst strong demand.
Notwithstanding some moderation in food
prices during Q4, hike in prices of a number of
manufactured products following input cost
pressures kept headline inflation firm and
significantly above the medium-term trend.
Inflation during 2011-12 is likely to moderate
slowly but remain above the comfort level as
the passthrough of international commodity
prices is likely to continue.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Costly oil a risk to growth sustainability
and inflation
18. High global crude oil and other
commodity prices pose the biggest risk to
India’s growth and inflation. Persistently high
inflation has kept inflation expectations
elevated. Fresh pressures from commodity
prices do make 2011-12 a challenging year for
inflation management. Cross-country
experience suggests that phases of high growth
have generally been accompanied by low
inflation. While growth risks are on the
downside, emanating from high oil prices and
some moderation in investment, GDP growth
during 2011-12 is expected to stay close to the
trend. However, the risks to inflation are on
the upside and it may remain elevated for some
more time despite the current anti-inflationary
bias in the monetary stance.
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