The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. The responses for the 70th round of the survey were received during May 12-26, 2021, wherein thirty two panellists participated. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts (Annex 1-7), along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output -
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the current year has been revised down from the last survey round to 9.8 per cent; it is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2022-23 (Table 1). -
SPF panellists have placed GDP growth forecasts in the wide range of 7.7- 11.0 per cent for 2021-22 and 4.0- 10.0 per cent for 2022-23 (Annexes 1 and 2). -
Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth lying between 9.5- 9.9 per cent in 2021-22 followed by the range 10.0- 10.4 (Chart 1). For 2022-23, highest probability has been assigned to the range 6.0- 6.4 per cent (Chart 2).
Note: Tails of the distributions are not presented in Charts 1 and 2. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6. -
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow by 10.8 per cent during 2021-22 and by 6.9 per cent in the next year. -
Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to record a growth of 11.4 per cent in 2021-22 and then by 7.1 per cent in 2022-23. - Real gross value added (GVA) is expected to grow by 9.0 per cent in 2021-22, supported by sharp pick-up in industrial and services activities; it is likely to record 6.1 per cent growth next year.
| Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components | | (in per cent) | | | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | | Real GDP | 9.8
(-1.2) | 6.5 | | a. Real PFCE | 10.8
(-1.2) | 6.9 | | b. Real GFCF | 11.4
(-2.0) | 7.1 | | Nominal PFCE | 15.0
(-1.3) | 11.1 | | Real GVA | 9.0
(-1.0) | 6.1 | | a. Agriculture and Allied Activities | 3.0
(0.0) | 3.1 | | b. Industry | 10.9
(-1.4) | 5.9 | | c. Services | 9.7
(-1.7) | 7.3 | Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national disposable income] (GNDI)] | 28.9
(-0.7) | 29.3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate
[per cent of GDP at current market prices] | 29.8
(-0.3) | 30.2 | | Note: The figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round (applicable for all Tables). | -
Real GDP is expected to grow by 20.1 per cent in Q1:2021-22 driven by pick-up in both PFCE and GFCF, and then gradually moderate to 5.9 per cent by Q3:2021-22 (Table 2). Quarterly GDP growth forecast path up to Q3:2021-22 has been revised down from the previous round, especially for Q1:2021-22. | Table 2: Median Growth Forecast of Quarterly GDP, GVA and components | | (in per cent) | | | Q1:2021-22 | Q2:2021-22 | Q3:2021-22 | Q4:2021-22 | | Real GDP | 20.1
(-6.5) | 8.2
(-1.5) | 5.9
(-0.1) | 5.9
(+0.6) | | a. Real PFCE | 23.1
(-5.9) | 11.0
(-1.1) | 5.8
(-0.8) | 5.7
(+0.1) | | b. Real GFCF | 38.0
(-9.6) | 7.1
(-2.2) | 5.0
(-1.2) | 5.0
(-0.3) | | Real GVA | 19.3
(-3.6) | 8.0
(-1.1) | 5.0
(-0.6) | 4.8
(-0.3) | 2. Inflation | Table 3: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation | | (in per cent) | | | Q1:2021-22 | Q2:2021-22 | Q3:2021-22 | Q4:2021-22 | | CPI Combined (General) | 5.0
(0.0) | 5.0
(+0.1) | 4.4
(+0.1) | 5.1
(+0.1) | | CPI Combined excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light | 5.3
(0.0) | 5.0
(-0.3) | 5.0
(-0.3) | 5.0
(-0.1) | | WPI All Commodities | 11.2
(+3.7) | 9.9
(+3.9) | 8.2
(+3.4) | 5.8
(+2.8) | | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | 9.0
(+2.8) | 8.7
(+2.9) | 7.3
(+3.0) | 4.9
(+2.3) | Note: Tails of the distributions are not presented in the Chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7. 3. External Sector -
Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 16.3 per cent and 25.3 per cent, respectively, during 2021-22 (Table 4). -
Current account deficit is expected at 0.8 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) in 2021-22 and at 1.3 per cent in 2022-23. -
The Indian rupee is likely to remain range bound between ₹73.50 – ₹74.70 per US dollar till Q4:2021-22 (Annex 3). | Table 4: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables | | | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | Merchandise Exports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) | 16.3
(+1.3) | 9.0 | Merchandise Imports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) | 25.3
(+1.2) | 10.1 | Current Account Balance
(per cent of GDP at current market prices) | -0.8
(0.0) | -1.3 |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF): Abhishek Gupta (Bloomberg Economics); Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited); Anagha Deodhar (ICICI Securities); Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd; Charu Chanana (Continuum Economics); CRISIL Ltd.; Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Ltd); Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings & Research); Gaura Sen Gupta (IDFC FIRST Bank); Gaurav Kapoor (Induslnd Bank Limited); ICICI Securities PD; Indranil Pan (YES Bank); Madhavi Arora (Emkay Global Financial Services); Pinaki M. Mukherjee (Maruti Suzuki); Sameer Narang (Bank of Baroda); Shailesh Kejariwal (Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt ltd); Tirthankar Patnaik (National Stock Exchange); and Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank). The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen other SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
| Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.7 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 10.1 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.6 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 9.9 | 11.8 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 11.4 | 11.4 | 15.5 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 13.3 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.8 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 7.2 | 12.6 | 15.4 | | 3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 28.8 | 29.8 | 30.2 | 26.0 | 28.0 | 30.1 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 9.5 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.9 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 12.5 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 10.4 | | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 28.8 | 28.9 | 33.0 | 25.0 | 27.2 | 30.0 | | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 10.6 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 11.0 | | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.8 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.4 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 17.8 | 16.3 | 35.0 | 6.9 | 13.7 | 22.9 | | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 27.5 | 25.3 | 42.9 | 16.7 | 23.0 | 31.9 | | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -22.6 | -25.0 | 28.0 | -48.1 | -32.0 | -17.8 | | a | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -0.6 | -0.8 | 1.5 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -0.4 | | 14 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 44.2 | 47.0 | 71.2 | 15.3 | 35.0 | 52.0 | | 15 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 | | 16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 5.2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 | | 17 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 8.0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 9.1 | | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 7.3 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 8.1 |
| Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2022-23 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2022-23 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 7.6 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.5 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 11.2 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | | 3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 29.9 | 30.2 | 31.2 | 28.0 | 29.5 | 30.6 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 6.8 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.3 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 29.4 | 29.3 | 32.0 | 26.9 | 29.0 | 29.9 | | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 9.0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 9.7 | | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.2 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.8 | | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.6 | 9.0 | 25.5 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 10.7 | | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.9 | 10.1 | 38.0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 11.6 | | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -37.3 | -43.7 | 18.1 | -59.7 | -47.8 | -37.0 | | a | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -1.1 | -1.3 | 0.6 | -1.8 | -1.4 | -1.1 | | 14 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 26.4 | 33.1 | 50.0 | -15.0 | 21.3 | 40.0 | | 15 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | | 16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | | 17 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 3.4 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 3.7 | 3.2 | 7.6 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 4.9 |
| Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q4:2020-21 to Q4:2021-22 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | | Q4: 2020-21 | Q1: 2021-22 | Q2: 2021-22 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 0.3 | 0.7 | 3.3 | -2.2 | 20.7 | 20.1 | 28.8 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 5.5 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 1.8 | 2.6 | 5.0 | -7.2 | 22.7 | 23.1 | 35.6 | 1.5 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 17.4 | -2.0 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.5 | 2.8 | 13.4 | -6.9 | 40.1 | 38.0 | 75.0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 15.7 | 0.6 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.3 | 6.3 | 9.7 | -4.3 | 25.1 | 27.8 | 39.5 | 2.0 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 21.1 | 1.1 | | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 27.6 | 28.2 | 29.9 | 23.1 | 24.6 | 24.7 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 26.0 | 26.9 | 30.0 | 17.5 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 25.9 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 4.4 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 2.8 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 4.0 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 32.0 | 33.8 | 49.8 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 12.0 | 0.6 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -2.8 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 29.2 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 25.0 | 5.4 | | 5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 33.7 | 26.1 | 80.3 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | -0.9 | | 6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 87.1 | 89.7 | 93.0 | 76.5 | 82.9 | 87.3 | 94.0 | 52.4 | 86.6 | 87.7 | 96.0 | 75.6 | | 7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 127.2 | 130.5 | 135.0 | 110.7 | 119.3 | 125.0 | 132.7 | 63.2 | 123.7 | 126.4 | 136.0 | 90.4 | | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 73.7 | 73.5 | 75.0 | 72.8 | 74.2 | 74.0 | 77.0 | 72.5 | | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 66.0 | 65.0 | 72.7 | 62.0 | 66.3 | 66.3 | 74.0 | 56.4 | | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 3.99 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.85 | 3.99 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.85 |
| | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | | Q3: 2021-22 | Q4: 2021-22 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.8 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 3.1 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.2 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 1.5 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.9 | 5.0 | 9.1 | -5.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 8.7 | -1.3 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.9 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 14.0 | 2.0 | | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 26.5 | 27.1 | 30.0 | 18.0 | 27.1 | 27.7 | 30.4 | 19.9 | | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 0.9 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 12.9 | 0.8 | | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.1 | 5.9 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 9.0 | -0.1 | | 5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 1.9 | | 6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 88.8 | 89.4 | 105.0 | 77.2 | 93.2 | 93.0 | 107.0 | 84.0 | | 7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 128.2 | 128.0 | 147.0 | 111.8 | 134.5 | 134.5 | 147.0 | 120.0 | | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | 74.5 | 74.7 | 76.8 | 71.5 | 74.4 | 74.5 | 76.5 | 71.5 | | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 65.3 | 65.0 | 72.5 | 55.7 | 65.1 | 65.0 | 75.0 | 51.9 | | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | 3.99 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.60 |
| Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation | | (per cent) | | | CPI Combined (General) | CPI Combined excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | Q1:2021-22 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | | Q2:2021-22 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | | Q3:2021-22 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.4 | | Q4:2021-22 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.1 |
| Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation | | (per cent) | | | WPI All Commodities | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | Q1:2021-22 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.5 | | Q2:2021-22 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 4.8 | | Q3:2021-22 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 4.1 | | Q4:2021-22 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 2.5 |
| Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth | | Growth Range | Forecasts for 2021-22 | Forecasts for 2022-23 | | 12.0 per cent or more | 0 | 0 | | 11.5 to 11.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 11.0 to 11.4 per cent | 0.03 | 0 | | 10.5 to 10.9 per cent | 0.07 | 0.01 | | 10.0 to 10.4 per cent | 0.25 | 0.01 | | 9.5 to 9.9 per cent | 0.27 | 0.01 | | 9.0 to 9.4 per cent | 0.15 | 0.01 | | 8.5 to 8.9 per cent | 0.08 | 0.01 | | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0.07 | 0.02 | | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0.06 | 0.06 | | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0.01 | 0.13 | | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0 | 0.17 | | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0 | 0.29 | | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0 | 0.21 | | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0 | 0.05 | | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0 | 0.02 | | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | | 0.0 to 0.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -1.5 to -1.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -2.0 to -1.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -2.5 to -2.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -3.0 to -2.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -3.5 to -3.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -4.0 to -3.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -4.5 to -4.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -5.0 to -4.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -5.5 to -5.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -6.0 to -5.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -6.5 to -6.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -7.0 to -6.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -7.5 to -7.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -8.0 to -7.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -8.5 to -8.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -9.0 to -8.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -9.5 to -9.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -10.0 to -9.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -10.5 to -10.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | | -11.0 to -10.5 per cent | 0 | 0 | | below -11.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. |
| Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation | | Inflation Range | Forecasts for Q1:2021-22 | Forecasts for Q2:2021-22 | Forecasts for Q3:2021-22 | Forecasts for Q4:2021-22 | | 9.0 per cent or above | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 8.5 to 9.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.05 | | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.18 | | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 0.32 | | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.28 | | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.09 | | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.03 | | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 to 0.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Below -1.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. | Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index.
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