Growth is expected to moderate in 2019-20 but improve in 2020-21. Consumer price inflation is expected to remain at or below 4.0 per cent till Q2:2020-21.
The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. Twenty-nine panellists participated in the 60th round of the survey conducted during September 20192. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts and consolidated in Annexes 1-7, along with quarterly paths for key variables.
1. Output
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6.
2. Inflation
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7.
3. External Sector
Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.6 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 6.1 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.2 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 7.1 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.8 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 9.3 |
3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 30.8 | 31.0 | 32.1 | 29.0 | 30.2 | 31.6 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.2 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 4.5 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 5.1 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 7.3 | 7.7 |
5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.9 | 29.4 | 30.0 | 30.3 |
6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 12.4 |
9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.6 |
10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 5.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 1.8 | 1.5 | 10.0 | -5.0 | -0.7 | 3.2 |
12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 1.3 | 0.5 | 12.0 | -5.9 | -1.2 | 3.8 |
13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -56.3 | -55.5 | -40.1 | -70.0 | -58.7 | -54.2 |
14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -2.0 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -2.8 | -2.1 | -1.8 |
15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 16.5 | 15.1 | 44.0 | -18.4 | 6.7 | 25.2 |
16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 2.0 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 |
19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.5 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 8.0 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.5 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 11.1 |
3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 31.2 | 31.0 | 33.0 | 29.2 | 30.3 | 32.2 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.6 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.3 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 6.5 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.9 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 30.5 | 30.5 | 32.0 | 28.9 | 30.2 | 31.0 |
6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.3 |
8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.4 | 12.9 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 13.5 |
9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 7.0 |
10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 5.6 |
11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 8.2 |
12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.7 | 7.1 | 14.0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 9.0 |
13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -63.8 | -64.2 | -55.0 | -75.2 | -66.2 | -60.0 |
14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -2.0 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -1.9 |
15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 11.6 | 10.0 | 40.0 | -9.8 | 0.9 | 21.2 |
16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.4 |
19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 2.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q2:2019-20 to Q2:2020-21 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q2: 2019-20 | Q3: 2019-20 | Q4: 2019-20 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
a | PFCE at constant (2011-12) prices: Y-o-Y Growth (per cent) | 4.9 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 |
b | GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices: Y-o-Y Growth (per cent) | 5.4 | 4.8 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 5.4 |
2 | PFCE at current prices: Y-on-Y Growth (per cent) | 7.7 | 7.3 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.0 |
3 | GFCF Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 29.4 | 29.1 | 31.0 | 27.8 | 30.2 | 29.7 | 32.0 | 28.4 | 29.4 | 28.4 | 33.0 | 27.8 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 3.4 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 2.5 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 |
5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 9.7 | 2.3 |
6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 82.5 | 81.3 | 88.3 | 78.5 | 84.7 | 84.8 | 91.0 | 76.2 | 88.0 | 88.8 | 93.5 | 78.1 |
7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 126.4 | 128.0 | 136.1 | 118.6 | 132.0 | 132.9 | 142.3 | 115.0 | 131.7 | 131.5 | 149.0 | 120.1 |
8 | Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 71.4 | 72.0 | 73.0 | 67.7 | 71.5 | 71.5 | 74.0 | 68.3 |
9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 64.5 | 65.0 | 70.0 | 60.0 | 64.8 | 65.0 | 71.2 | 60.0 |
10 | Repo Rate (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 4.98 | 5.00 | 5.15 | 4.40 | 4.91 | 5.00 | 5.15 | 4.00 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q1: 2020-21 | Q2: 2020-21 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 |
a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.5 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 |
b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 6.1 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.4 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 8.2 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 30.0 | 29.8 | 32.0 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 29.3 | 33.2 | 28.3 |
4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 6.1 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.6 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 5.2 |
c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 6.7 |
5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 |
6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 87.1 | 86.8 | 92.3 | 80.2 | 88.4 | 88.6 | 94.7 | 82.4 |
7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 134.8 | 134.0 | 153.0 | 122.4 | 138.8 | 137.9 | 159.0 | 125.6 |
8 | Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) | 71.7 | 71.8 | 74.0 | 68.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 76.0 | 69.0 |
9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 65.3 | 65.0 | 70.1 | 60.0 | 65.5 | 65.0 | 72.4 | 60.0 |
10 | Repo Rate (end-period) | 4.85 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.84 | 4.95 | 5.00 | 4.00 |