Inflation Expectations Survey of
Households: September 2012
(Round 29)*
The Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for
the July-September 2012 quarter (29th round) captures
the inflation expectations of 4,000 urban households across
12 cities, for the next three-month and for the next one-year
period. These expectations are based on their individual
consumption baskets and hence, these rates should not be
considered as predictors of any official measure of inflation.
The households’ inflation expectations provide useful
directional information on near-term inflationary pressures
and also supplement other economic indicators to get a
better indication of future inflation.
The proportion of respondents expecting increase in
general prices by ‘more than current rate’ has decreased
noticeably for three-month ahead period but has gone up
for one-year ahead expectations as compared with the
previous quarter. The perceived current inflation and
three-month ahead inflation expectations based on median
as well as mean inflation rate have also moved down as
compared with the previous round. However, one-year
ahead median inflation expectation has moved up and
mean inflation expectation has moved down as compared
with the previous round. Households expect inflation to rise
further by 90 and 210 basis points during next three-month
and next one-year respectively from their perceived current
rate of 10.6 per cent. As in the past rounds, daily workers
and housewives expect higher inflation rates compared with
other categories.
I. Introduction
The Reserve Bank has been conducting Inflation
Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) on a
quarterly basis, since September 2005. The survey
elicits qualitative and quantitative responses for three-month ahead and one-year ahead period on expected
price changes and inflation. Inflation expectations
of households are subjective assessments and are
based on their individual consumption baskets and
therefore, may be different from the official inflation
numbers released periodically by the government.
These inflation expectations should not be treated as
forecast of any official measure of inflation, though
they provide useful inputs on directional movements
of future inflation.
II. Sample Coverage and Information
Sought
The survey is conducted simultaneously in 12
cities that cover adult respondents of 18 years and
above. The major metropolitan cities, viz., Delhi,
Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai are represented by
500 households each, while another eight cities, viz.,
Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Patna, Guwahati,
Bengaluru and Hyderabad are represented by 250
households each. The respondents having a view on
perceived current inflation are well spread across
the cities to provide a good geographical coverage.
The male and female respondents in the group are
approximately in the ratio of 3:2. The sample coverage
in terms of occupational category-wise representation
is nearly as per the target (Table 1).
The survey schedule (Annex) is organised into
seven blocks covering the respondent profile (block
1), general and product-wise price expectations (block
2 and 3), feedback on RBI’s action to control inflation
(block 4), current and expected inflation rate (block
5), amount paid for the purchase of major food items
during last one month (block 6) and the expectations
on changes in income/wages (block 7).
The response options for price changes are
(i) price increase more than current rate, (ii) price
increase similar to current rate, (iii) price increase
less than current rate, (iv) no change in prices and (v)
decline in prices. The inflation rates are collected in
intervals - the lowest being ‘less than 1 per cent’ and the highest being ‘16 per cent and above’ with 100
basis points size for all intermediate classes.
Table 1: Respondents’ Profile (Category):
Share in Total Sample |
Category of Respondents |
Share in Total (%) |
Target Share (%) |
Financial Sector Employees |
9.4 |
10.0 |
Other Employees |
16.3 |
15.0 |
Self-employed |
21.5 |
20.0 |
Housewives |
29.3 |
30.0 |
Retired Persons |
9.0 |
10.0 |
Daily Workers |
9.0 |
10.0 |
Others |
5.6 |
5.0 |
Note: The above sample proportion is for the quarter ended September
2012 survey. |
III. Survey Results
III.1 General Price Expectations
-
Almost all the respondents expect prices to go up
three-month ahead and one-year ahead.
-
However, the percentage of respondents
expecting increase in general prices by ‘more
than current rate’ for three-month ahead period
has decreased noticeably to 78.9 from 83.6 per
cent and that for one-year ahead has gone up to
86.8 from 84.4 per cent in the previous round
(Table 2).
Table 2: Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three-month ahead and One-year ahead |
(percentage of respondents) |
Round No./survey period (quarter ended) → |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
Sep-11 |
Dec-11 |
Mar-12 |
Jun-12 |
Sep-12 |
Sep-11 |
Dec-11 |
Mar-12 |
Jun-12 |
Sep-12 |
Options: For General |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
97.3 |
96.1 |
98.2 |
99.0 |
98.9 |
96.0 |
97.1 |
98.3 |
99.5 |
99.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
75.8 |
73.4 |
75.6 |
83.6 |
78.9 |
73.5 |
76.9 |
78.8 |
84.4 |
86.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.4 |
13.2 |
15.9 |
11.2 |
14.5 |
16.7 |
12.6 |
14.0 |
10.5 |
7.6 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.0 |
9.6 |
6.7 |
4.2 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
No change in prices |
2.2 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
Decline in price |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Options: For Food Products |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
97.3 |
95.3 |
98.2 |
98.8 |
98.8 |
95.8 |
96.8 |
98.2 |
99.4 |
99.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
74.2 |
70.4 |
69.8 |
80.8 |
78.6 |
72.0 |
73.7 |
74.4 |
82.5 |
85.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.2 |
16.7 |
21.2 |
14.3 |
15.5 |
19.0 |
15.8 |
18.6 |
12.6 |
9.9 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.9 |
8.2 |
7.2 |
3.7 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
7.4 |
5.2 |
4.3 |
3.5 |
No change in prices |
1.9 |
3.4 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
Decline in price |
0.9 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Options: For Non Food Products |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
95.6 |
94.3 |
97.5 |
97.8 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
96.2 |
98.1 |
99.3 |
99.0 |
Price increase more than current rate |
67.1 |
66.1 |
63.7 |
72.6 |
70.0 |
66.4 |
67.5 |
68.5 |
79.9 |
80.3 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.5 |
18.3 |
24.3 |
20.3 |
20.5 |
22.7 |
20.8 |
22.6 |
15.2 |
13.8 |
Price increase less than current rate |
7.0 |
9.9 |
9.5 |
4.9 |
7.6 |
6.1 |
8.0 |
7.0 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
No change in prices |
3.8 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
Decline in price |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Options: For Household Durables |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
91.0 |
86.9 |
90.0 |
94.3 |
86.9 |
91.5 |
90.6 |
91.9 |
96.3 |
94.9 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.5 |
53.6 |
50.7 |
63.5 |
49.9 |
52.2 |
54.6 |
52.4 |
66.9 |
60.9 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
26.4 |
19.5 |
25.7 |
22.4 |
21.9 |
26.0 |
22.6 |
25.7 |
18.8 |
21.6 |
Price increase less than current rate |
14.1 |
13.8 |
13.6 |
8.4 |
15.1 |
13.3 |
13.4 |
13.8 |
10.6 |
12.4 |
No change in prices |
5.8 |
10.8 |
8.5 |
5.1 |
11.7 |
6.2 |
7.8 |
7.0 |
3.4 |
4.7 |
Decline in price |
3.3 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
Table 2: Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three-month ahead and One-year ahead (Concld.) |
(percentage of respondents) |
Round No./survey period (quarter ended) → |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
Sep-11 |
Dec-11 |
Mar-12 |
Jun-12 |
Sep-12 |
Sep-11 |
Dec-11 |
Mar-12 |
Jun-12 |
Sep-12 |
Options: For Housing Prices |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
97.0 |
95.5 |
96.3 |
96.4 |
94.9 |
95.8 |
96.1 |
97.7 |
98.9 |
98.4 |
Price increase more than current rate |
73.5 |
67.4 |
70.4 |
73.0 |
75.1 |
70.2 |
67.3 |
73.4 |
76.9 |
83.5 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.2 |
18.2 |
19.5 |
18.3 |
14.8 |
20.0 |
20.6 |
19.3 |
16.8 |
10.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.4 |
10.0 |
6.4 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.6 |
8.2 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
4.2 |
No change in prices |
2.2 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
Decline in price |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Options: For Cost of Services |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Prices will increase |
95.3 |
91.9 |
95.8 |
96.4 |
93.6 |
95.2 |
93.6 |
97.1 |
98.1 |
97.4 |
Price increase more than current rate |
68.1 |
58.7 |
67.3 |
73.0 |
69.1 |
66.3 |
65.3 |
69.6 |
74.0 |
76.5 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.3 |
21.2 |
20.3 |
18.3 |
17.8 |
23.4 |
18.6 |
19.8 |
18.5 |
14.5 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.8 |
12.1 |
8.2 |
5.1 |
6.7 |
5.4 |
9.8 |
7.7 |
5.6 |
6.5 |
No change in prices |
4.0 |
7.4 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
Decline in price |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
III. 2 Product Group-wise Price Expectations
-
The percentages of respondents expecting
price increase in three-month ahead have
decreased for household durables, housing
and cost of services whereas it has gone up for
non-food products. However, the percentages
of respondents expecting price increase in oneyear
ahead period have moved down for all the
product groups (Table 2).
-
The proportions of households expecting price
increase three-month ahead by ‘more than
current rate’ have decreased for all product
groups except housing, whereas such proportions
have risen in case of one-year ahead expectations
for all product groups except household durables
(Table 2).
III.3 Coherence between General and Product
Group-wise Price Expectations
-
As in the past rounds, the general price
expectations are more consistently aligned with
food price expectations than with other product
groups. More than 90 per cent of the respondents
appeared to have been influenced by expected
changes in food prices for arriving at general
price expectations (Table 3).
-
Further, sharp increase in coherence between
general price expectations and housing price
expectations are observed for one-year ahead
period in the current survey round as compared
with the previous round (Table 3).
Table 3: Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price
Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three-month ahead and One-year ahead |
(percentage of respondents) |
Survey
Round |
Survey Quarter
ended |
Food |
Non-
Food |
House-
hold
durables |
Hous-
ing |
Cost
of ser-
vices |
Three-month Ahead period |
25 |
Sep-11 |
88.8 |
86.2 |
68.0 |
84.4 |
85.2 |
26 |
Dec-11 |
87.9 |
82.4 |
67.6 |
74.4 |
74.7 |
27 |
Mar-12 |
87.7 |
82.7 |
65.4 |
84.1 |
83.7 |
28 |
Jun-12 |
90.5 |
84.5 |
73.2 |
82.8 |
82.6 |
29 |
Sep-12 |
90.9 |
86.0 |
60.5 |
83.3 |
81.1 |
One-year Ahead period |
25 |
Sep-11 |
92.4 |
87.2 |
71.1 |
85.7 |
86.3 |
26 |
Dec-11 |
92.3 |
84.5 |
68.0 |
78.1 |
81.2 |
27 |
Mar-12 |
91.8 |
84.0 |
65.7 |
83.9 |
85.9 |
28 |
Jun-12 |
92.5 |
88.0 |
77.1 |
85.1 |
87.1 |
29 |
Sep-12 |
95.9 |
90.3 |
69.5 |
91.0 |
87.2 |
III.4 Inflation Expectations
-
The perceived current inflation and three-month
ahead inflation expectations based on median as
well as mean inflation rate have moved down as
compared with the previous round. However, in case of one-year ahead period, median inflation
expectation has moved up and mean inflation
expectation has moved down as compared with
the previous round (Table 4).
-
Households expect inflation to rise further
by 90 and 210 basis points during next threemonth
and next one-year respectively from their
perceived current rate of 10.6 per cent (Table 4).
-
Daily workers and housewives tend to have
marginally higher level of inflation expectations based on mean inflation rate. City-wise, inflation
expectations based on mean inflation rate were
found to be the highest in Jaipur and Mumbai
and the lowest in Kolkata (Table 5).
-
For a large part of survey history, the households’
perceived current inflation rate remained
between the WPI and CPI-IW inflation rates.
However, from quarter ended September 2010
round onwards, it is higher than those inflation
rates (Chart 1).
Table 4: Household Inflation Expectations - Current, Three-month Ahead and One-year Ahead |
Survey Round |
Survey Quarter ended |
Inflation rate in Per cent |
Current |
Three-month ahead |
One-year ahead |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Median |
Std.Dev. |
25 |
Sep-11 |
11.7 |
10.5 |
3.1 |
12.2 |
11.5 |
3.4 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.7 |
26 |
Dec-11 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.5 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
13.3 |
13.5 |
3.4 |
27 |
Mar-12 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
4.1 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
3.8 |
28 |
Jun-12 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.9 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
3.4 |
29 |
Sep-12 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.8 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Table 5: Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for September 2012 Survey Round |
|
Current |
Three-month Ahead |
One-year Ahead |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Gender-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
10.4 |
9.5 |
3.8 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.7 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Female |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.8 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.6 |
Category-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financial Sector Employees |
9.7 |
8.5 |
3.7 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.5 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
Other Employees |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.7 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.7 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Self-Employed |
10.7 |
10.5 |
3.8 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
3.9 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Housewives |
10.9 |
10.5 |
3.8 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.6 |
Retired Persons |
10.1 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.2 |
10.5 |
3.7 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
3.6 |
Daily Workers |
11.1 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
3.5 |
Others |
10.5 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
Age-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Up to 25 years |
10.8 |
10.5 |
3.8 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
13.0 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
25 to 30 years |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.8 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
3.7 |
30 to 35 years |
10.8 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.7 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
35 to 40 years |
10.4 |
9.5 |
3.8 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.7 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.4 |
40 to 45 years |
10.5 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.7 |
12.6 |
12.5 |
3.6 |
45 to 50 years |
10.7 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
3.8 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
3.6 |
50 to 55 years |
10.4 |
9.5 |
3.7 |
11.2 |
10.5 |
3.8 |
12.3 |
12.5 |
3.8 |
55 to 60 years |
10.7 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.4 |
10.5 |
4.1 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
3.7 |
60 years and above |
10.4 |
9.5 |
3.9 |
11.4 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.4 |
III.5 Cross-classification of Current Inflation
and Future Expectations
-
The proportion of respondents perceiving current
inflation, three-month ahead and one-year ahead
inflation to be at double digit have declined as
compared with those in the last round.
-
In particular, 47.1 per cent (51.8 per cent in
previous round) of respondents perceive double
digit current inflation. Similarly, 59.3 per cent
(65.0 per cent in previous round) and 73.1 percent (76.5 per cent) of the respondents expect
double digit inflation rates for three-month
ahead and one-year ahead periods (Table 6 and Table 7).
Table 5: Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for September 2012 Survey Round (Concld.) |
|
Current |
Three-month Ahead |
One-year Ahead |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
Mean |
Median |
Std. Dev |
City-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mumbai |
14.7 |
15.5 |
2.5 |
15.2 |
16.5 |
2.5 |
16.2 |
16.5 |
1.1 |
Delhi |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.4 |
11.3 |
10.5 |
3.5 |
12.3 |
11.5 |
3.2 |
Chennai |
9.0 |
8.5 |
2.4 |
10.0 |
9.5 |
2.4 |
9.9 |
9.5 |
3.4 |
Kolkata |
7.0 |
6.5 |
1.1 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
1.9 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
2.2 |
Bangalore |
13.4 |
14.5 |
3.4 |
14.0 |
15.5 |
3.1 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
2.7 |
Hyderabad |
11.1 |
11.5 |
4.2 |
11.5 |
12.5 |
4.2 |
12.5 |
13.5 |
3.6 |
Ahmedabad |
8.6 |
8.5 |
1.1 |
10.3 |
9.5 |
1.6 |
15.0 |
15.5 |
1.7 |
Lucknow |
11.3 |
11.5 |
3.6 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
3.2 |
14.2 |
15.5 |
2.7 |
Jaipur |
15.5 |
16.5 |
3.2 |
15.6 |
16.5 |
2.9 |
15.8 |
16.5 |
2.3 |
Bhopal |
8.8 |
8.5 |
2.9 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
3.0 |
11.9 |
11.5 |
2.8 |
Patna |
10.6 |
10.5 |
3.1 |
11.8 |
11.5 |
2.9 |
13.8 |
14.5 |
2.5 |
Guwahati |
8.1 |
8.5 |
1.7 |
9.2 |
9.5 |
2.6 |
11.1 |
10.5 |
2.3 |
All |
10.6 |
9.5 |
3.8 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
3.6 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
3.5 |
III.6 Awareness on RBI Action to Control
Inflation
-
On the feedback of the RBI action to control
inflation and its impact, 52 per cent of the
respondents are aware of the role of RBI in
controlling inflation, of which 29 per cent felt that Reserve Bank is taking necessary action.
Among these 29 per cent, 48 per cent think that RBI’s action has an impact on controlling inflation
(Chart 2).
-
While financial sector employees are mostly
aware of Reserve Bank’s role in controlling
inflation, daily workers are largely unaware
(Table 8).
|
Table 6: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three-month Ahead Inflation Expectations |
(Number of respondents) |
Three-month ahead inflation rate (per cent) |
|
|
<1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate (per cent) |
<1 |
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
8 |
1-2 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2-3 |
|
|
|
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
3-4 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
30 |
13 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
52 |
5-6 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
29 |
98 |
12 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
151 |
6-7 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
30 |
87 |
325 |
75 |
52 |
10 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
585 |
7-8 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
69 |
282 |
113 |
25 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
509 |
8-9 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
0 |
6 |
60 |
177 |
116 |
14 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
387 |
9-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
6 |
79 |
214 |
68 |
14 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
|
402 |
10-11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
32 |
174 |
79 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
|
318 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
12 |
156 |
23 |
10 |
1 |
3 |
|
210 |
12-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
131 |
37 |
7 |
1 |
|
184 |
13-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
76 |
22 |
2 |
|
106 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
13 |
146 |
20 |
|
187 |
15-16 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
|
13 |
115 |
1 |
134 |
>=16 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
|
1 |
6 |
5 |
715 |
3 |
746 |
|
Total |
19 |
|
2 |
8 |
14 |
93 |
208 |
415 |
432 |
429 |
408 |
276 |
269 |
185 |
156 |
210 |
867 |
9 |
4000 |
Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who perceived current inflation in double digit and also expected double digit inflation
in the next three-month ahead. |
Table 7: Cross-tabulation of Current and One-year Ahead Inflation Expectations |
(Number of respondents) |
One-year ahead inflation rate (per cent) |
Current inflation rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
8 |
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2-3 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
3-4 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
12 |
4-5 |
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
0 |
22 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
52 |
5-6 |
3 |
|
|
|
1 |
20 |
8 |
68 |
23 |
10 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
|
151 |
6-7 |
3 |
|
|
|
2 |
15 |
64 |
62 |
202 |
86 |
76 |
42 |
16 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
585 |
7-8 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
55 |
22 |
182 |
83 |
52 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
35 |
10 |
6 |
509 |
8-9 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
26 |
37 |
119 |
44 |
62 |
12 |
17 |
34 |
26 |
|
387 |
9-10 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
24 |
35 |
120 |
36 |
43 |
46 |
28 |
59 |
2 |
402 |
10-11 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
14 |
29 |
86 |
36 |
60 |
55 |
30 |
1 |
318 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
10 |
123 |
11 |
42 |
13 |
2 |
210 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
4 |
1 |
76 |
67 |
28 |
2 |
184 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
4 |
2 |
54 |
44 |
|
106 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
1 |
8 |
26 |
147 |
1 |
187 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
126 |
6 |
134 |
>=16 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
4 |
4 |
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
9 |
703 |
15 |
746 |
Total |
29 |
|
1 |
4 |
8 |
41 |
112 |
203 |
293 |
350 |
338 |
301 |
243 |
241 |
242 |
359 |
1198 |
37 |
4000 |
Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who perceived current inflation in double digit and also expected double digit inflation
in the next one-year ahead. |
|
III.7 Expectations on Change of Income/
Wages
-
Out of 2,244 respondents in the wage earners/
self-employed/daily workers categories, 54 per
cent reported increase in wages/income in the
past one year and 80 per cent expected that their
income/wages would increase in next one-year.
About 72 per cent of respondents did not see
any change in their incomes in next three-month
period (Table 9).
-
The share of respondents, reporting wage increase
in past one year and/or expecting so during one
year ahead, is highest in case of financial sector employees and lowest in case of Daily Workers
(Table 9).
Table 8: Awareness of RBI's Action on controlling Inflation and their Impact |
(percentage of respondents) |
Category of Respondents |
Whether RBI is taking action to control inflation |
Yes |
No |
No
Idea |
Impact of RBI's action to
control inflation |
Yes |
No |
No Idea |
Total |
Financial Sector Employees |
27.5 |
22.9 |
6.4 |
56.8 |
12.8 |
30.4 |
Other Employees |
18.3 |
14.9 |
2.2 |
35.4 |
18.9 |
45.7 |
Self-Employed |
12.6 |
14.2 |
3.4 |
30.2 |
24.4 |
45.5 |
Housewives |
8.8 |
7.2 |
0.7 |
16.6 |
27.8 |
55.5 |
Retired Persons |
16.4 |
15.6 |
3.1 |
35.0 |
23.6 |
41.4 |
Daily Workers |
6.9 |
5.0 |
1.9 |
13.9 |
32.1 |
54.0 |
Others |
14.7 |
13.8 |
1.8 |
30.4 |
17.0 |
52.7 |
All |
13.8 |
12.4 |
2.4 |
28.5 |
23.6 |
47.9 |
Table 9: Respondent's Expectation on Change in Wage/Income level |
(percentage of respondents) |
Category of Respondents |
Change in income since
last year |
Change in income in three-month
ahead period |
Change in income in one-year
ahead period |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Same |
Decrease |
Financial Sector Employees |
70.4 |
27.7 |
1.9 |
30.1 |
69.1 |
0.8 |
92.3 |
6.9 |
0.8 |
Other Employees |
59.5 |
39.1 |
0.8 |
22.6 |
75.8 |
0.9 |
83.5 |
15.1 |
0.6 |
Total Employees |
63.5 |
34.9 |
1.2 |
25.4 |
73.4 |
0.9 |
86.7 |
12.1 |
0.7 |
Self- Employed |
48.0 |
42.2 |
9.1 |
29.0 |
67.6 |
2.8 |
77.0 |
19.1 |
3.3 |
Daily Workers |
39.9 |
54.3 |
5.8 |
17.5 |
80.1 |
2.5 |
70.6 |
27.4 |
1.9 |
Total |
53.8 |
40.8 |
4.9 |
25.5 |
72.2 |
1.9 |
80.4 |
17.2 |
1.9 |
|