Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey:
July-September 2012
(Round 59)*
This article presents the findings of Industrial
Outlook Survey conducted for July-September 2012
quarter, 59th round in the series. The survey provides an
assessment of business situation of companies in
manufacturing sector, for the quarter July-September
2012 (Q2:2012-13), and their expectations for the
ensuing quarter October-December 2012 (Q3:2012-
13). The results of the survey reflect further weakening
of business sentiments in Q2:2012-13 which was reflected
in the outlook of the previous round of the survey. The
Business Expectation Index (BEI), a composite indicator
based on several business parameters, declined further
for the assessment quarter and reached a level seen at
the onset of financial crisis in Q3:2008-09. However, the
outlook for the ensuing quarter i.e., Q3:2012-13 is
marginally better. The indices still remained in the
growth terrain (i.e., above 100, which is the threshold
that separates contraction from expansion).
I. Introduction:
The Reserve Bank of India has been conducting
the Industrial Outlook Survey on a quarterly basis
since 1998. The Survey gives insight into the
perception of the public and private limited
companies engaged in manufacturing activities about
their own performance and prospects. The assessment
of business sentiments for the current quarter and
expectations for the ensuing quarter are based on
qualitative responses on 20 major parameters1 covering broadly demand condition and financial situation. The survey provides useful forward-looking
inputs for policymakers, analysts and business alike.
II. Data Coverage and Methodology
The survey schedule is canvassed among 2,000
public and private limited companies in the
manufacturing sector, mostly with paid-up capital
above `5 million each. The panel of respondents was
chosen so as to get a good representation of size and
industry. The fieldwork for the survey is carried out
by an external agency. The survey elicited response
from 1,561 manufacturing companies in the current
round (response rate around 78 per cent).
The analysis is based on ‘net response’ on
various parameters. ‘Net response’ is the percentage
difference between the optimistic (i.e., positive) and
the pessimistic (i.e., negative) responses and
responses indicating status quo (i.e., no change) are
not reckoned. Higher ‘net response’ indicates higher
level of optimism and vice versa.
III. Survey Findings
III.1 Demand condition
The survey collects perceptions of the Indian
manufacturers about prominent demand related
parameters, namely, production, order books, capacity
utilisation, inventory, exports and imports. The
assessment on all the above parameters revealed that
demand conditions further weakened in Q2:2012-13.
However, the outlook for Q3: 2012-13 showed
marginal improvement.
III.1.1 Production
The assessed net response on production
declined continuously since last year with the exception of Q4:2011-12. One quarter ahead outlook
also showed lower optimism in 2011-12 and it
worsened in the first two quarters of 2012-13. Outlook
for Q3:2012-13, however, improved marginally. The
pattern was quite similar for other variables like order
books, capacity utilisation etc. (Charts 1 to 4, Tables
1 , 2, 3 and 4). However, positive net response is
indicative of continued growth.
III.1.2 Exports and Imports
Net responses on exports and imports have
generally been lower than those on production or
order books. The sentiments weakened further during
the assessment quarter of Q2:2012-13. Outlook for
Q3:2012-13 also was less optimistic (Tables 5 & 6 and
Charts 5 & 6).
 |
 |
 |
 |
Table 1: Assessment & Expectations for Production |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
44.0 |
15.2 |
40.8 |
28.9 |
46.0 |
11.0 |
43.0 |
35.0 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
49.0 |
12.5 |
38.5 |
36.5 |
48.8 |
8.8 |
42.3 |
40.0 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
48.4 |
13.0 |
38.6 |
35.4 |
45.8 |
9.9 |
44.3 |
35.9 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
51.6 |
11.6 |
36.8 |
40.0 |
49.7 |
9.4 |
40.9 |
40.2 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
53.9 |
10.0 |
36.0 |
43.9 |
55.9 |
6.8 |
37.3 |
49.1 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
52.1 |
10.7 |
37.1 |
41.4 |
55.4 |
6.8 |
37.7 |
48.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
47.8 |
15.7 |
36.5 |
32.1 |
49.1 |
9.1 |
41.8 |
40.0 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
40.8 |
18.3 |
40.9 |
22.6 |
49.6 |
9.0 |
41.5 |
40.6 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
42.2 |
16.9 |
41.0 |
25.3 |
49.5 |
9.5 |
41.0 |
39.9 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
45.6 |
12.5 |
41.9 |
33.1 |
49.8 |
9.5 |
40.7 |
40.4 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
38.8 |
18.5 |
42.7 |
20.3 |
45.4 |
10.6 |
44.0 |
34.7 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
37.9 |
19.2 |
42.9 |
18.8 |
45.4 |
11.7 |
42.9 |
33.6 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
46.1 |
10.4 |
43.4 |
35.7 |
# Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable throughout the article.
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. |
III.1.3 Inventory of Raw Materials & Finished
Goods
Generally, around 80 per cent of the respondents
reported ‘no change’ in the average level of inventory
of raw materials and finished goods on a quarterly
basis. Of the remaining, slightly higher percentage of
respondents reported carrying above average level of inventory in the assessment quarter. This is, however,
not reflected in the outlook for the ensuing quarter
(Table 7)
Table 2: Assessment & Expectations for Order Books |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
39.5 |
13.6 |
46.8 |
25.9 |
43.5 |
11.2 |
45.3 |
32.3 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
43.5 |
11.6 |
44.9 |
31.9 |
44.8 |
9.1 |
46.1 |
35.8 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
41.8 |
10.5 |
47.7 |
31.3 |
42.3 |
8.9 |
48.8 |
33.4 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
45.4 |
9.3 |
45.3 |
36.1 |
44.4 |
8.1 |
47.5 |
36.3 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
46.9 |
9.1 |
44.0 |
37.9 |
49.8 |
5.1 |
45.1 |
44.8 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
44.8 |
10.1 |
45.2 |
34.7 |
49.6 |
5.6 |
44.8 |
44.0 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
42.5 |
14.4 |
43.0 |
28.1 |
45.9 |
7.5 |
46.6 |
38.4 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
37.9 |
17.6 |
44.5 |
20.3 |
45.4 |
9.4 |
45.2 |
35.9 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
36.9 |
18.5 |
44.6 |
18.4 |
43.5 |
10.1 |
46.4 |
33.4 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
38.9 |
14.1 |
47.0 |
24.8 |
42.3 |
11.0 |
46.7 |
31.3 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
34.2 |
17.3 |
48.5 |
16.9 |
39.3 |
9.8 |
50.9 |
29.5 |
Jul-Sep12 |
1,561 |
31.9 |
19.8 |
48.3 |
12.0 |
41.0 |
11.1 |
47.9 |
29.9 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
41.2 |
10.9 |
48.0 |
30.3 |
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. |
III.1.4 Employment Situation
In various rounds of the survey, more than 90
per cent of the respondent companies reported
maintaining the workforce at the same level or increase in the level of employment. However, in the
last two rounds of survey, slightly higher percentage
of the respondents assessed a decline in their
workforce. Going forward, the trend has been
reversed and the net response on employment rose
marginally for Q3:2012-13 (Table 8, Chart 7).
Table 3: Assessment & Expectations for Pending Orders |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
17.1 |
5.6 |
77.3 |
11.6 |
15.2 |
4.2 |
80.6 |
11.0 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
15.5 |
6.7 |
77.8 |
8.8 |
12.2 |
6.5 |
81.3 |
5.7 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
14.3 |
7.4 |
78.3 |
6.9 |
12.9 |
6.4 |
80.7 |
6.5 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
12.0 |
6.9 |
81.1 |
5.1 |
11.4 |
7.3 |
81.3 |
4.2 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
11.6 |
7.6 |
80.8 |
3.9 |
8.8 |
7.3 |
83.9 |
1.5 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
12.5 |
6.9 |
80.6 |
5.5 |
9.8 |
8.1 |
82.1 |
1.7 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
13.3 |
6.7 |
80.0 |
6.5 |
10.4 |
6.6 |
83.0 |
3.9 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
18.0 |
4.7 |
77.3 |
13.3 |
11.8 |
7.2 |
81.0 |
4.5 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
17.5 |
5.0 |
77.5 |
12.6 |
13.6 |
6.0 |
80.4 |
7.6 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
15.9 |
5.4 |
78.7 |
10.5 |
13.7 |
6.5 |
79.8 |
7.3 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
17.0 |
5.7 |
77.3 |
11.3 |
13.3 |
4.6 |
82.1 |
8.8 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
18.7 |
5.6 |
75.7 |
13.1 |
14.6 |
6.2 |
79.2 |
8.4 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
14.4 |
7.0 |
78.6 |
7.4 |
Pending Orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. |
Table 4: Assessment & Expectations for
Capacity Utilisation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Apr- Jun 12 |
Jul- Sep 12 |
Jul- Sep 12 |
Oct-
Dec
12 |
Capacity Utilisation
(main product) |
Increase |
25.8 |
24.0 |
30.4 |
30.4 |
No Change |
57.1 |
58.3 |
57.6 |
59.3 |
Decrease |
17.1 |
17.7 |
12.0 |
10.3 |
Net Response |
8.6 |
6.3 |
18.4 |
20.0 |
Level of Capacity Utilisation
(compared to the average in last 4 quarters) |
Above normal |
10.1 |
9.7 |
11.4 |
10.3 |
Normal |
71.9 |
71.3 |
75.6 |
77.4 |
Below Normal |
17.9 |
18.9 |
13.0 |
12.3 |
Net Response |
-7.8 |
-9.2 |
-1.5 |
-2.0 |
Assessment of Prod. Capacity
(with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
More than adequate |
12.4 |
13.1 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
Adequate |
79.6 |
79.0 |
80.0 |
80.5 |
Less than adequate |
8.0 |
7.9 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
Net Response |
4.4 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
‘Increase’ in Capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
III.2 Financial Situation
The survey assesses sentiments about the
financial situations based on several parameters.
While the respondents are required to evaluate the
overall financial situation, responses are specifically
obtained on availability of finance (in the form of
both equity and debt), cost of external finance, cost
of raw material, selling price and profit margin.
 |
Table 5: Assessment & Expectations for Exports |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
27.3 |
18.1 |
54.6 |
9.2 |
27.0 |
14.5 |
58.5 |
12.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
28.9 |
16.2 |
54.9 |
12.7 |
31.2 |
11.0 |
57.8 |
20.2 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
29.1 |
13.7 |
57.2 |
15.3 |
30.0 |
11.5 |
58.5 |
18.5 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
31.8 |
11.8 |
56.5 |
20.0 |
30.8 |
10.1 |
59.1 |
20.7 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
34.4 |
11.4 |
54.2 |
23.1 |
34.4 |
8.3 |
57.3 |
26.1 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
32.1 |
13.2 |
54.7 |
18.9 |
34.4 |
8.1 |
57.5 |
26.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
31.8 |
13.6 |
54.6 |
18.2 |
33.4 |
9.4 |
57.1 |
24.0 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
28.7 |
15.7 |
56.6 |
13.1 |
35.1 |
9.2 |
55.7 |
25.8 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
26.8 |
15.3 |
57.9 |
11.5 |
32.7 |
10.6 |
56.8 |
22.1 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
27.8 |
13.6 |
58.6 |
14.2 |
29.0 |
10.4 |
60.6 |
18.6 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
25.7 |
14.9 |
59.4 |
10.8 |
30.1 |
9.4 |
60.5 |
20.7 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
25.3 |
15.2 |
59.5 |
10.0 |
31.0 |
10.5 |
58.5 |
20.5 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
29.0 |
10.9 |
60.1 |
18.0 |
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. |
III.2.1 Overall Financial Situation
Optimism level for overall financial situation
has been declining since Q4:2010-11 and it went
down further in the assessment quarter. Marginal
improvement is expected for the ensuing quarter
(Table 9, Chart 8).
III.2.2 Availability of Finance
The sentiment for availability of finance also
showed similar trend (Table 11, Chart 9). Beginning
from Q4:2010-11, while slightly higher percentage of
respondents perceived availability of finance to have
worsened, responses for improvement in the financial
situation have also been lower.
 |
Table 6: Assessment & Expectations for Import |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
23.3 |
10.3 |
66.5 |
13.0 |
21.3 |
9.8 |
68.9 |
11.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
25.5 |
8.4 |
66.1 |
17.1 |
23.4 |
6.5 |
70.1 |
16.9 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
27.7 |
6.8 |
65.6 |
20.9 |
22.9 |
5.9 |
71.2 |
17.1 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
28.6 |
6.6 |
64.7 |
22.0 |
27.0 |
5.4 |
67.6 |
21.7 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
27.3 |
6.4 |
66.3 |
20.9 |
27.3 |
5.1 |
67.6 |
22.2 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
27.0 |
7.1 |
65.8 |
19.9 |
26.7 |
5.4 |
67.9 |
21.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
25.0 |
7.4 |
67.6 |
17.6 |
25.1 |
6.2 |
68.6 |
18.9 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
23.3 |
7.6 |
69.2 |
15.7 |
25.1 |
6.1 |
68.9 |
19.0 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
20.8 |
9.3 |
69.9 |
11.6 |
23.1 |
6.2 |
70.7 |
16.9 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
69.5 |
14.4 |
23.0 |
7.5 |
69.4 |
15.5 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
21.8 |
10.1 |
68.1 |
11.6 |
22.4 |
6.7 |
70.8 |
15.7 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
20.7 |
10.9 |
68.5 |
9.8 |
22.9 |
7.4 |
69.7 |
15.5 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
22.1 |
8.1 |
69.8 |
14.0 |
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. |
Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for level of
Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods) |
(Percentage responses) # |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Apr-Jun 12 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
Inventory of raw material |
Below average |
8.0 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
5.1 |
Average |
81.0 |
80.9 |
83.7 |
85.2 |
Above Average |
11.0 |
12.3 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
Net Response |
-2.9 |
-5.4 |
-3.1 |
-4.7 |
Inventory of Finished goods |
Below average |
6.8 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
6.1 |
Average |
81.6 |
78.5 |
83.6 |
83.9 |
Above average |
11.7 |
14.5 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
Net Response |
-4.9 |
-7.4 |
-2.1 |
-4.0 |
Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic |
III.2.3 Cost of Finance
The sentiment on cost of finance has remained
negative for a long time with the lowest level reached
in Q3:2011-12. The net response improved gradually
thereafter and percentage of respondents who
experienced higher cost of finance over the previous
quarter declined in Q2:2012-13. Similarly, a lower percentage of respondents expect the cost of finance
to rise in Q3:2012-13 (Table 12).
III.2.4 Cost of Raw Material
The sentiment on cost of raw materials has
remained strongly negative in the last few years.
However, the current round of survey pointed to
some improvement in the situation. Percentage of respondents reporting/expecting further increase in
price in the assessment/expectation quarter has
reduced from the previous round (Table 13, Chart 10).
Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
18.2 |
7.9 |
73.9 |
10.3 |
15.8 |
7.0 |
77.2 |
8.8 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
21.0 |
7.3 |
71.7 |
13.7 |
18.2 |
6.1 |
75.6 |
12.1 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
21.7 |
7.0 |
71.3 |
14.7 |
19.5 |
5.9 |
74.7 |
13.6 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
25.1 |
6.3 |
68.6 |
18.7 |
21.8 |
5.1 |
73.1 |
16.8 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
24.8 |
5.4 |
69.9 |
19.4 |
24.7 |
3.6 |
71.7 |
21.0 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
24.3 |
5.6 |
70.1 |
18.7 |
25.0 |
4.3 |
70.7 |
20.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
24.3 |
6.1 |
69.6 |
18.2 |
23.0 |
5.6 |
71.4 |
17.4 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
22.7 |
7.1 |
70.2 |
15.6 |
24.0 |
4.6 |
71.5 |
19.4 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
18.9 |
7.6 |
73.5 |
11.3 |
21.7 |
5.2 |
73.1 |
16.5 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
19.8 |
6.9 |
73.3 |
12.9 |
19.3 |
5.7 |
75.0 |
13.6 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
19.8 |
9.7 |
70.5 |
10.0 |
19.9 |
5.2 |
74.9 |
14.6 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
17.9 |
9.6 |
72.5 |
8.3 |
20.5 |
8.3 |
71.2 |
12.3 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
19.2 |
5.9 |
74.9 |
13.3 |
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. |
Table 9: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
38.8 |
9.3 |
51.8 |
29.5 |
40.5 |
7.0 |
52.5 |
33.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
42.3 |
6.5 |
51.3 |
35.8 |
44.3 |
5.0 |
50.6 |
39.3 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
39.1 |
6.9 |
54.0 |
32.2 |
41.6 |
5.3 |
53.1 |
36.3 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
38.7 |
8.1 |
53.2 |
30.6 |
39.7 |
5.6 |
54.8 |
34.1 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
42.8 |
5.7 |
51.5 |
37.1 |
44.9 |
5.3 |
49.7 |
39.6 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
35.7 |
8.6 |
55.8 |
27.1 |
45.5 |
4.4 |
50.1 |
41.1 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
34.5 |
10.4 |
55.0 |
24.1 |
38.6 |
5.2 |
56.1 |
33.4 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
27.8 |
16.0 |
56.2 |
11.7 |
37.4 |
6.8 |
55.7 |
30.6 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
28.1 |
16.9 |
55.0 |
11.2 |
35.5 |
9.2 |
55.3 |
26.3 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
30.4 |
11.9 |
57.8 |
18.5 |
35.3 |
10.2 |
54.5 |
25.2 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
27.8 |
13.5 |
58.7 |
14.2 |
35.7 |
8.1 |
56.2 |
27.7 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
27.1 |
14.9 |
58.0 |
12.2 |
33.2 |
9.5 |
57.3 |
23.6 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
34.8 |
9.0 |
56.2 |
25.8 |
‘Better’ Overall financial situation is optimistic. |
 |
III.2.5 Selling price
While more than 60 per cent of the respondents
reported increase in the cost of raw materials in the
assessment quarter, less than 30 per cent of the
respondents were able to raise their selling prices.
This may be indicative of lack of pricing power of the
manufacturers in the recent past. However, slightly
higher optimism with respect to selling price was
observed in the last three quarters. The outlook for
Q3:2012-13 reversed this trend (Table 14 , Chart 11).
Table 10: Assessment & Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
35.2 |
6.4 |
58.4 |
28.8 |
34.7 |
4.3 |
61.0 |
30.4 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
35.8 |
5.3 |
58.9 |
30.5 |
36.8 |
4.0 |
59.2 |
32.7 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
34.7 |
4.8 |
60.5 |
29.9 |
31.9 |
4.3 |
63.8 |
27.7 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
35.6 |
6.3 |
58.1 |
29.3 |
35.2 |
4.1 |
60.7 |
31.1 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
41.3 |
4.1 |
54.6 |
37.1 |
38.4 |
3.6 |
58.0 |
34.8 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
41.0 |
4.1 |
54.9 |
36.9 |
40.7 |
3.0 |
56.3 |
37.8 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
41.1 |
5.4 |
53.5 |
35.7 |
37.4 |
4.4 |
58.2 |
32.9 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
36.8 |
5.7 |
57.4 |
31.1 |
38.7 |
5.1 |
56.3 |
33.6 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
38.9 |
5.7 |
55.4 |
33.3 |
38.4 |
4.2 |
57.5 |
34.2 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
40.0 |
5.1 |
54.8 |
34.9 |
38.0 |
4.2 |
57.8 |
33.8 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
36.6 |
6.1 |
57.3 |
30.4 |
36.2 |
4.3 |
59.6 |
31.9 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
37.5 |
6.8 |
55.8 |
30.7 |
34.9 |
4.8 |
60.3 |
30.1 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
37.3 |
4.4 |
58.3 |
32.9 |
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. |
Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
30.3 |
7.2 |
62.5 |
23.0 |
31.7 |
5.6 |
62.7 |
26.1 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
32.1 |
6.4 |
61.5 |
25.7 |
33.7 |
4.5 |
61.8 |
29.2 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
32.3 |
5.9 |
61.8 |
26.4 |
31.2 |
4.4 |
64.4 |
26.8 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
32.6 |
6.0 |
61.4 |
26.6 |
32.9 |
4.4 |
62.7 |
28.5 |
Oct-Dec10 |
1,561 |
35.9 |
5.6 |
58.4 |
30.3 |
35.3 |
4.0 |
60.6 |
31.3 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
32.1 |
8.3 |
59.6 |
23.8 |
36.4 |
4.0 |
59.6 |
32.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
30.2 |
8.7 |
61.1 |
21.5 |
32.6 |
5.3 |
62.2 |
27.3 |
Jul-Sep11 |
1,528 |
24.0 |
12.0 |
64.0 |
12.1 |
30.0 |
5.8 |
64.2 |
24.2 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
24.1 |
13.7 |
62.2 |
10.4 |
28.7 |
8.5 |
62.7 |
20.2 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
26.1 |
10.3 |
63.5 |
15.8 |
28.2 |
9.1 |
62.7 |
19.0 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
26.2 |
11.1 |
62.7 |
15.0 |
29.9 |
7.0 |
63.1 |
22.9 |
Jul-Sep12 |
1,561 |
25.0 |
11.2 |
63.8 |
13.8 |
28.0 |
7.7 |
64.3 |
20.4 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
29.1 |
7.8 |
63.1 |
21.3 |
‘Improvement’ in Availability of finance is optimism |
 |
III.2.6 Profit margin
In line with lower pricing power, a higher
percentage of respondents reported decrease in profit
margin in the last few quarters. The trend remained
the same for Q2:2012-13 while the corporates were
evenly balanced in their outlook for the next quarter
(Table 15 and Chart 12).
III.3 Overall Business Situation
III.3.1 Overall Business Situation
Optimism with respect to overall business
situation has been declining since Q4: 2010-11. The
net response moderated further in the assessment quarter. However marginal improvement was
expected in the ensuing quarter. (Table 16, Chart 13).
Table 12: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of External Finance |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
7.7 |
23.6 |
68.7 |
-15.9 |
6.8 |
25.1 |
68.1 |
-18.3 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
7.0 |
28.9 |
64.0 |
-21.9 |
6.1 |
26.8 |
67.1 |
-20.6 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
5.0 |
33.2 |
61.8 |
-28.3 |
5.7 |
29.0 |
65.3 |
-23.3 |
Oct-Dec10 |
1,561 |
4.0 |
37.9 |
58.1 |
-33.9 |
3.8 |
32.1 |
64.2 |
-28.3 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
3.5 |
46.0 |
50.6 |
-42.5 |
3.7 |
35.0 |
61.3 |
-31.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
3.5 |
52.5 |
44.1 |
-49.0 |
3.9 |
38.9 |
57.1 |
-35.0 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
3.5 |
53.7 |
42.9 |
-50.2 |
4.0 |
43.7 |
52.4 |
-39.7 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
2.9 |
53.4 |
43.7 |
-50.6 |
3.4 |
44.4 |
52.2 |
-41.0 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
3.8 |
41.1 |
55.1 |
-37.4 |
4.1 |
42.8 |
53.1 |
-38.8 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
7.3 |
37.8 |
54.9 |
-30.5 |
9.9 |
32.6 |
57.6 |
-22.7 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
5.8 |
33.1 |
61.1 |
-27.4 |
8.6 |
32.6 |
58.9 |
-24.0 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.6 |
28.1 |
64.3 |
-20.6 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of external finance is optimistic |
Table 13: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of Raw Material |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total
Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
6.3 |
53.4 |
40.3 |
-47.1 |
5.0 |
43.4 |
51.6 |
-38.4 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
2.2 |
62.3 |
35.5 |
-60.2 |
3.6 |
47.9 |
48.5 |
-44.3 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
2.5 |
65.2 |
32.3 |
-62.7 |
2.2 |
50.8 |
47.0 |
-48.6 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
3.5 |
61.8 |
34.7 |
-58.3 |
2.7 |
52.0 |
45.2 |
-49.3 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
2.4 |
66.3 |
31.3 |
-63.9 |
3.3 |
52.6 |
44.1 |
-49.3 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
1.7 |
73.7 |
24.6 |
-71.9 |
2.3 |
55.9 |
41.8 |
-53.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
4.5 |
70.0 |
25.6 |
-65.5 |
2.5 |
59.5 |
38.0 |
-57.0 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
5.3 |
63.3 |
31.4 |
-58.1 |
4.8 |
56.6 |
38.6 |
-51.7 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
5.1 |
66.3 |
28.7 |
-61.2 |
3.7 |
53.4 |
42.9 |
-49.7 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
3.4 |
62.7 |
33.9 |
-59.4 |
4.0 |
54.1 |
41.9 |
-50.1 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
3.1 |
66.2 |
30.7 |
-63.1 |
2.2 |
51.2 |
46.5 |
-49.0 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
3.0 |
62.6 |
34.4 |
-59.6 |
3.5 |
54.9 |
41.6 |
-51.4 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
3.5 |
52.1 |
44.3 |
-48.6 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw material is optimistic |
 |
III.3.2 Business Expectation Index (BEI)
The BEI gives a single snapshot of the industrial
outlook in each quarter. This index is computed as a
weighted average of net responses from all the
industries on nine select performance parameters
where the weights are the industry’s share in Gross
Value Added (GVA). The selected parameters are
‘overall business situation’, ‘production’, ‘order
books’, ‘inventory of raw materials’, ‘inventory of
finished goods’, ‘profit margin’, ‘employment’,
‘exports’ and ‘capacity utilisation’. The methodology for compilation of the BEI was given in the article
Quarterly Industrial Outlook Surveys: Trends since
2001 published in October 2009 Bulletin.
The results of this round showed that the
BEI reached a level seen at the onset of financial
crisis in Q3:2008-09. However the outlook for the
ensuing quarter i.e., Q3:2012-13 was marginally
better. These indices have remained in the growth terrain (i.e., above 100, which is the threshold
separating contraction from expansion) (Table 17,
Chart 14).
Table 14: Assessment & Expectations for Selling Price |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
18.6 |
15.9 |
65.5 |
2.6 |
19.2 |
13.2 |
67.6 |
6.0 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
24.6 |
12.2 |
63.2 |
12.4 |
20.7 |
10.9 |
68.4 |
9.8 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
29.3 |
12.0 |
58.6 |
17.3 |
22.4 |
9.1 |
68.5 |
13.3 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
28.0 |
14.2 |
57.8 |
13.8 |
24.4 |
9.2 |
66.3 |
15.2 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
30.2 |
10.0 |
59.8 |
20.2 |
25.7 |
8.7 |
65.5 |
17.0 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
35.7 |
9.2 |
55.1 |
26.5 |
26.7 |
8.1 |
65.2 |
18.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
35.0 |
13.4 |
51.6 |
21.5 |
30.6 |
7.0 |
62.4 |
23.7 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
27.3 |
16.6 |
56.1 |
10.7 |
29.1 |
10.7 |
60.2 |
18.3 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
24.6 |
15.7 |
59.7 |
8.9 |
26.8 |
10.8 |
62.4 |
16.0 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
25.1 |
11.6 |
63.3 |
13.5 |
25.0 |
10.3 |
64.7 |
14.7 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
28.0 |
10.5 |
61.4 |
17.5 |
26.3 |
7.3 |
66.4 |
19.0 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
29.3 |
10.9 |
59.8 |
18.5 |
27.8 |
9.0 |
63.2 |
18.8 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
25.6 |
8.3 |
66.1 |
17.3 |
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic |
 |
 |
III.3.3 Industry-wise and Size-wise Analysis
While at the aggregate level, business outlook
for Q3:2012-13 marginally improved, in the case of
cement and food products industries’ optimism level showed substantial increase (Table 18). On the other
hand, outlook for fertiliser industry indicated lower
optimism. Also bigger companies (value of production
and paid-up capital wise) showed more optimism as
compared to their smaller counter parts (Table 19).
Table 15: Assessment & Expectations for Profit Margin |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total
Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
18.1 |
28.0 |
54.0 |
-9.9 |
20.2 |
23.0 |
56.8 |
-2.8 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
21.7 |
24.6 |
53.9 |
-2.9 |
21.1 |
20.1 |
58.8 |
1.1 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
20.2 |
25.0 |
54.9 |
-4.8 |
22.1 |
18.9 |
59.0 |
3.2 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
21.3 |
23.9 |
54.8 |
-2.5 |
22.2 |
19.1 |
58.7 |
3.1 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
22.7 |
23.1 |
54.2 |
-0.4 |
25.2 |
16.1 |
58.7 |
9.2 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
20.8 |
25.1 |
54.1 |
-4.3 |
25.6 |
17.2 |
57.2 |
8.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
18.2 |
28.1 |
53.6 |
-9.9 |
22.2 |
18.4 |
59.4 |
3.8 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
15.2 |
32.3 |
52.5 |
-17.1 |
22.0 |
19.5 |
58.5 |
2.5 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
15.2 |
32.5 |
52.4 |
-17.3 |
20.3 |
21.9 |
57.8 |
-1.6 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
17.5 |
28.7 |
53.8 |
-11.3 |
20.1 |
23.1 |
56.8 |
-2.9 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
15.4 |
33.3 |
51.3 |
-17.9 |
20.4 |
21.6 |
58.0 |
-1.2 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
16.2 |
31.2 |
52.6 |
-15.1 |
20.1 |
23.6 |
56.3 |
-3.6 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
20.5 |
21.8 |
57.7 |
-1.3 |
‘Increase’ in Profit margin is optimistic. |
Table 16: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total
Response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
46.0 |
10.1 |
43.9 |
36.0 |
47.2 |
7.4 |
45.4 |
39.8 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
50.5 |
7.4 |
42.1 |
43.1 |
50.4 |
5.5 |
44.2 |
44.9 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
47.8 |
7.1 |
45.0 |
40.7 |
47.3 |
6.1 |
46.6 |
41.2 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
46.7 |
8.0 |
45.3 |
38.7 |
47.6 |
6.2 |
46.2 |
41.5 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
51.4 |
5.5 |
43.1 |
45.9 |
52.5 |
5.1 |
42.4 |
47.4 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
46.0 |
7.4 |
46.6 |
38.6 |
54.2 |
4.1 |
41.8 |
50.1 |
Apr-Jun11 |
1,504 |
42.8 |
10.1 |
47.1 |
32.6 |
47.0 |
5.6 |
47.4 |
41.4 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
34.1 |
15.4 |
50.5 |
18.7 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
46.6 |
39.8 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
35.2 |
17.5 |
47.3 |
17.7 |
43.1 |
8.0 |
48.9 |
35.2 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
37.8 |
11.3 |
50.9 |
26.5 |
43.6 |
10.0 |
46.5 |
33.6 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
1,404 |
32.9 |
14.6 |
52.5 |
18.3 |
43.0 |
8.1 |
49.0 |
34.9 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
1,561 |
32.8 |
16.7 |
50.5 |
16.1 |
40.2 |
9.7 |
50.1 |
30.6 |
Oct-Dec 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
41.4 |
9.2 |
49.4 |
32.2 |
| ‘Better’ overall business situation is optimistic |
III.3.4 Constraints for attaining the normal
production level
About 51 per cent of companies reported
production constraints for attaining the normal
production level during the quarter July-September 2012. Major constraints reported are lack of domestic
demand (42.9 per cent), uncertainty of economic environment (41.3 per cent), shortage of power (39.4
per cent), lack of export demand (34.1 per cent) and shortage of working capital finance (33.4 per cent).
Industry wise analysis shows that ‘textiles’, ‘basic metals and metal products’, ‘non-electrical’ and ‘food
products’ felt more production constraints (Table 20).
 |
Table 17: Business Expectation Index |
Quarter |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Index |
Change
over
previous
quarter |
Change
over
previous
year |
Index |
Change
over
previous
quarter |
Change over previous year |
Jan-Mar 04 |
121.4 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
122.2 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
Apr-Jun 04 |
118.4 |
-3.0 |
8.6 |
121.5 |
-0.7 |
3.7 |
Jul-Sep 04 |
116.9 |
-1.5 |
2.6 |
120.0 |
-1.5 |
2.9 |
Oct-Dec 04 |
122.0 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
121.5 |
1.5 |
-0.6 |
Jan-Mar 05 |
122.5 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
123.2 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
Apr-Jun 05 |
117.5 |
-5.0 |
-0.9 |
120.7 |
-2.5 |
-0.8 |
Jul-Sep 05 |
114.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.0 |
119.6 |
-1.1 |
-0.4 |
Oct-Dec 05 |
124.3 |
9.4 |
2.3 |
122.7 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
Jan-Mar 06 |
120.7 |
-3.6 |
-1.8 |
125.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
Apr-Jun 06 |
121.8 |
1.1 |
4.3 |
120.5 |
-5.2 |
-0.2 |
Jul-Sep 06 |
120.7 |
-1.1 |
5.8 |
126.5 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
Oct-Dec 06 |
123.9 |
3.2 |
-0.4 |
125.3 |
-1.2 |
2.6 |
Jan-Mar 07 |
127.7 |
3.8 |
7.0 |
126.5 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
Apr-Jun 07 |
115.8 |
-11.9 |
-6.0 |
127.5 |
1.0 |
7.0 |
Jul-Sep 07 |
118.9 |
3.1 |
-1.8 |
121.1 |
-6.4 |
-5.4 |
Oct-Dec 07 |
115.9 |
-3.0 |
-8.0 |
124.4 |
3.3 |
-0.9 |
Jan-Mar 08 |
122.8 |
6.9 |
-4.9 |
118.6 |
-5.8 |
-7.9 |
Apr-Jun 08 |
116.2 |
-6.6 |
0.4 |
123.2 |
4.6 |
-4.3 |
Jul-Sep 08 |
113.4 |
-2.8 |
-5.5 |
122.1 |
-1.1 |
1.0 |
Oct-Dec 08 |
104.1 |
-9.3 |
-11.8 |
118.9 |
-3.2 |
-5.5 |
Jan-Mar 09 |
82.6 |
-21.5 |
-40.2 |
111.9 |
-7.0 |
-6.7 |
Apr-Jun 09 |
99.4 |
16.8 |
-16.8 |
96.4 |
-15.5 |
-26.8 |
Jul-Sep 09 |
107.2 |
7.8 |
-6.2 |
109.9 |
13.5 |
-12.2 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
112.8 |
5.6 |
8.7 |
116.4 |
6.5 |
-2.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
118.5 |
5.7 |
35.9 |
120.6 |
4.2 |
8.7 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
115.9 |
-2.6 |
16.5 |
119.8 |
-0.8 |
23.4 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
119.0 |
3.1 |
11.8 |
118.8 |
-1.0 |
8.9 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
122.8 |
3.8 |
10.0 |
126.5 |
7.7 |
10.1 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
122.0 |
-0.8 |
3.5 |
125.9 |
-0.6 |
5.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
116.3 |
-5.7 |
0.4 |
121.9 |
-4.0 |
2.1 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
109.4 |
-6.9 |
-9.7 |
121.5 |
-0.4 |
2.7 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
110.1 |
0.8 |
-12.7 |
118.8 |
-2.7 |
-7.7 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
114.9 |
4.8 |
-7.1 |
117.2 |
-1.6 |
-8.7 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
107.4 |
-7.5 |
-8.9 |
116.8 |
-0.4 |
-5.1 |
Jul-Sep 12 |
103.8 |
-3.6 |
-5.5 |
114.0 |
-2.8 |
-7.6 |
Oct-Dec12 |
|
|
|
115.7 |
1.7 |
-3.1 |
 |
Table 18: Outlook for important business parameters according to Industries |
(Net response in per cent) |
Industry Name |
Production |
Order Books |
Availability of Finance |
Cost of Raw Materials |
Cost of Finance |
Profit Margin |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Food products |
22.0 |
44.3 |
22.9 |
33.6 |
16.2 |
28.6 |
-50.4 |
-58.6 |
-15.1 |
-14.7 |
-9.0 |
2.9 |
Textiles |
23.6 |
28.3 |
20.4 |
30.3 |
11.8 |
11.6 |
-35.2 |
-40.2 |
-23.6 |
-21.9 |
-6.7 |
0.0 |
Basic Metals & Metal products |
27.8 |
25.5 |
24.9 |
16.1 |
17.4 |
11.7 |
-54.8 |
-43.1 |
-26.3 |
-21.6 |
-2.1 |
-10.9 |
Electrical machinery |
38.8 |
41.7 |
44.2 |
35.5 |
19.8 |
17.6 |
-48.0 |
-46.6 |
-20.2 |
-22.0 |
-9.0 |
0.9 |
Other Machinery(Non-electrical machinery) & Apparatus |
30.8 |
29.3 |
27.8 |
24.3 |
19.1 |
20.6 |
-58.3 |
-50.0 |
-28.2 |
-16.0 |
-11.4 |
-11.4 |
Transport Equipment |
41.7 |
38.9 |
37.0 |
30.9 |
33.3 |
30.3 |
-51.0 |
-46.8 |
-21.1 |
-16.0 |
-1.1 |
-5.5 |
Fertilisers |
60.6 |
22.6 |
50.0 |
20.8 |
27.8 |
25.8 |
-45.7 |
-35.5 |
-19.4 |
-31.0 |
17.6 |
6.7 |
Pharmaceuticals & Medicines |
47.1 |
41.4 |
45.5 |
31.9 |
19.3 |
18.4 |
-66.7 |
-63.0 |
-25.0 |
-19.1 |
-4.6 |
0.0 |
Basic Chemicals |
50.0 |
44.1 |
40.7 |
35.3 |
28.6 |
26.3 |
-42.1 |
-48.3 |
-24.7 |
-27.7 |
10.3 |
5.2 |
Rubber & Plastic products |
47.7 |
45.1 |
32.5 |
50.6 |
28.4 |
32.6 |
-58.4 |
-51.1 |
-33.7 |
-29.5 |
11.5 |
4.3 |
Paper & Paper products |
42.9 |
44.2 |
23.1 |
38.1 |
22.0 |
23.3 |
-57.1 |
-42.2 |
-37.5 |
-25.0 |
14.0 |
-2.3 |
Cement |
0.0 |
41.9 |
0.0 |
32.1 |
-3.8 |
20.0 |
-61.5 |
-35.5 |
-11.5 |
-10.0 |
-19.2 |
6.5 |
Wood & wood products |
43.8 |
33.3 |
40.0 |
35.7 |
11.8 |
26.7 |
-66.7 |
-84.6 |
-25.0 |
-40.0 |
11.8 |
16.7 |
Diversified companies |
0.0 |
42.9 |
37.5 |
43.8 |
18.2 |
15.0 |
-63.6 |
-66.7 |
-55.6 |
-15.8 |
-10.0 |
15.0 |
Other industries |
27.6 |
34.4 |
23.4 |
28.6 |
26.5 |
27.4 |
-50.4 |
-49.6 |
-18.6 |
-17.4 |
-14.9 |
3.8 |
All Industries |
33.6 |
35.7 |
29.9 |
30.3 |
20.4 |
21.3 |
-51.4 |
-48.6 |
-24.0 |
-20.6 |
-3.6 |
-1.3 |
Table 19: Outlook for important business parameters according to size
(PUC-wise & Annual production-wise) of responding companies |
(Net response in per cent) |
Size |
Production |
Order Books |
Availability of Finance |
Cost of raw Materials |
Cost of Finance |
Profit Margin |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
Rd58 |
Rd59 |
PUC-Wise |
Small |
24.9 |
18.4 |
17.0 |
14.2 |
10.2 |
13.5 |
-57.5 |
-55.0 |
-21.6 |
-20.7 |
-10.8 |
-13.4 |
Medium |
35.6 |
38.6 |
32.7 |
33.1 |
23.1 |
22.8 |
-50.2 |
-47.6 |
-24.9 |
-20.6 |
-2.7 |
-0.4 |
Big |
34.2 |
44.6 |
31.7 |
35.9 |
14.1 |
22.6 |
-48.7 |
-43.9 |
-18.9 |
-19.5 |
8.0 |
10.0 |
Annual Prod.-Wise |
Small |
28.9 |
31.5 |
25.5 |
24.3 |
15.5 |
16.3 |
-55.6 |
-54.7 |
-24.1 |
-23.6 |
-10.3 |
-8.0 |
Medium |
39.5 |
37.7 |
34.0 |
33.4 |
26.1 |
24.7 |
-49.2 |
-44.6 |
-26.7 |
-19.8 |
1.3 |
-1.3 |
Big |
29.6 |
42.5 |
31.5 |
39.2 |
17.4 |
25.9 |
-44.3 |
-42.1 |
-13.9 |
-13.6 |
3.0 |
11.5 |
Small companies (annual production less than `1 billion /PUC less than `10 million).
Medium companies (annual production between `1 billion to `10 billion /PUC between `10 million to `1 billion)
Big companies (annual production above `10 billion / PUC above `1 billion) |
Table 20: Constraints for Attaining the Normal Production Level – Industry-wise |
|
Production Constraint |
No |
Yes |
Count |
per cent |
Count |
per cent |
Food products |
70 |
49.6 |
71 |
50.4 |
Textiles |
76 |
37.3 |
128 |
62.7 |
Basic Metals & Metal products |
73 |
36.5 |
127 |
63.5 |
Electrical machinery |
60 |
50.0 |
60 |
50.0 |
Other Machinery & Apparatus |
87 |
45.8 |
103 |
54.2 |
Transport Equipment |
48 |
43.6 |
62 |
56.4 |
Fertilisers |
22 |
71.0 |
9 |
29.0 |
Pharmaceutical & Medicines |
65 |
64.4 |
36 |
35.6 |
Basic Chemicals |
68 |
57.6 |
50 |
42.4 |
Rubber & Plastic products |
51 |
53.1 |
45 |
46.9 |
Paper & Paper products |
23 |
51.1 |
22 |
48.9 |
Cement |
17 |
54.8 |
14 |
45.2 |
Wood & wood products |
7 |
46.7 |
8 |
53.3 |
Diversified companies |
15 |
71.4 |
6 |
28.6 |
Other industries |
86 |
62.3 |
52 |
37.7 |
All Industries |
768 |
49.2 |
793 |
50.8 |
|