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India’s External Debt: Trends, Policy Measures and Cross-Country Comparison
Date : Nov 12, 2012

India’s External Debt: Trends, Policy Measures and Cross-Country Comparison*

The current account deficit was largely financed through debt flows with continued uncertainty in the global economy affecting the quantum of equity flows during the first quarter of 2012-13. However, the magnitude of increase in external debt was lower than that of the preceding quarter largely due to valuation gains resulting from appreciation of US dollar against Indian rupee and other international currencies. Increase in external debt during Q1 of 2012-13 was largely due to rise in Non-resident external Rupee denominated ((NR(E) RA) deposits, inter alia, induced by deregulation of interest rates on these deposits in December 2011 and increased recourse to short-term trade credit. A notable aspect of the components of the debt was that external commercial borrowings recorded a marginal decline due to higher repayments and also reflecting growing risk aversion due to increased exchange rate volatility. With regard to currency composition of debt, the US dollar denominated debt continued to be the highest, constituting more than fifty percent of total external debt. The trends in key vulnerability indicators suggest that though the external debt is within manageable level, there was some deterioration during the first quarter in terms of debt-GDP ratio, short-term debt to total debt and reserves to total debt warranting close monitoring of external debt. However, India’s debt position in terms of these key vulnerability indicators appears better visa- vis top twenty indebted countries.

The article begins with an outline of external debt as at end-June 2012. Section I presents detailed analysis of external debt. Section II provides the cross-country comparison based on World Bank’s ‘Global Development Finance’ data with a focus on ‘where does India stand’ in terms of different indicators vis-a-vis Top twenty indebted countries. Section III details the recent policy measures. Concluding observations are presented in Section IV.

Section I: India’s External Debt as at end- June 2012

External debt stock at end-June 2012 increased moderately

India’s external debt, as at end-June 2012, was placed at US$ 349.5 billion showing an increase of US$ 3.9 billion or 1.1 per cent over the end-March 2012 level primarily on account of Non-resident external rupee ((NR(E) RA) denominated deposits and short-term trade credits (Table 1, Statement 1 and Statement 2). Significantly, the stock of multilateral debt and external commercial borrowings (ECB) at the end of June 2012 was lower than that of the level at end of March 2012. The decline in the stock of ECB was due to higher repayments during the quarter coupled with growing risk aversion due to increased exchange rate volatility.

The share of short-term debt in total debt rose over the preceding as well as corresponding quarter of the previous year mainly due to higher trade credit. The long-term debt at US$ 269.1 billion and short-term debt at US$ 80.5 billion accounted for 77.0 per cent and 23.0 per cent, respectively, of the total external debt as at end-June 2012 (Table 2). Although, widening CAD was largely financed through debt flows, rise in magnitude of debt over the preceding quarter has been relatively moderate since a part of the rise was offset by valuation gains. The valuation gains during the first quarter of 2012-13 amounted to US$ 7.9 billion reflecting the appreciation of US dollar against the Indian rupee and other major currencies. Thus excluding the valuation gains the stock of external debt as at end-June 2012 would have increased by US$11.8 billion.

Table 1: External Debt – Outstanding and Variation

(US$ million)

Item

Outstanding at the end-of

Absolute variation

Percentage variation

Jun-11

Mar 2012 PR

Jun 2012 P

Jun-12 over Jun-11

Jun-12 over Mar-12

Jun-12 over Jun-11

Jun-12 over Mar-12

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1. Multilateral

49,375

50,453

49,780

406

-673

0.8

-1.3

2. Bilateral

26,168

26,714

27,248

1,081

534

4.1

2.0

3. IMF

6367

6163

6037

-330

-126

-5.2

-2.0

4. Trade Credit

18,692

18,980

19,094

402

114

2.2

0.6

5. External Commercial Borrowings

92,675

105,210

104,841

12,166

-369

13.1

-0.4

6. NRI Deposits

52,898

58,608

60,874

7,976

2,266

15.1

3.9

7. Rupee Debt

1,568

1,354

1,219

-349

-135

-22.3

-10.0

8. Short-Term Debt

68,474

78,179

80,450

11,976

2,271

17.5

2.9

Of which

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(i) Short Term Trade Credit

61,532

65,130

70,508

8,976

5,378

14.6

8.3

Total Debt

316,216

345,661

349,543

33,327

3,882

10.5

1.1

Memo Items

A. Long-Term Debt (1 to 7)

247,742

267,482

269,093

21,351

1,611

8.6

0.6

B. Short-Term Debt

68,474

78,179

80,450

11,976

2,271

17.5

2.9

P: Provisional. PR: Partially Revised.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India


Table 2: External Debt by Component

(US $ million)

Item

End- March

End-June

2010

2011

2012PR

2011 PR

2012 P

1

2

3

4

5

1. Multilateral

42,857

48,474

50,453

49,375

49,780

 

(16.4)

(15.8)

(14.6)

(15.6)

(14.2)

2. Bilateral

22,593

25,698

26,714

26,168

27,248

 

(8.7)

(8.4)

(7.7)

(8.3)

(7.8)

3. IMF

6,041.0

6,308

6163

6367

6037

 

(2.3)

(2.1)

(1.8)

(2.0)

(1.7)

4. Trade Credit

16,841

18,613

18,980

18,692

19,094

 

(6.5)

(6.1)

(5.5)

(5.9)

(5.5)

5. ECBs

70,726

88,565

105,210

92,675

104,841

 

(27.1)

(28.9)

(30.4)

(29.3)

(30.0)

6. NRI Deposits

47,890

51,682

58,608

52,898

60,874

 

(18.4)

(16.9)

(17.0)

(16.7)

(17.4)

7. Rupee Debt

1,658

1,601

1,354

1,567

1,219

 

(0.6)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.3)

8. Long-term Debt (1to 7)

208,606

240,941

267,482

247,742

269,093

 

(79.9)

(78.8)

(77.4)

(78.3)

(77.0)

9. Short-term Debt

52,329

64,990

78,179

68,474

80,450

 

(20.1)

(21.2)

(22.6)

(21.7)

(23.0)

Total (8+9)

260,935

305,931

345,661

316,216

349,543

 

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

P: Provisional. PR: Partially Revised. IMF: International Monetary Fund; ECBs: External Commercial Borrowings; NRI: Non-Resident Indian
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentage to total external debt.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

ECB disbursements during Q1 of 2012-13 were lower reflecting subdued domestic economic activity and growing risk aversion

Keeping in view the financing requirements of Indian companies in manufacturing and infrastructure sector, the repayment of outstanding Rupee loans raised for capital expenditure or for fresh Rupee capital expenditure, an ECB with a maximum ceiling of US $ 10 billion was permitted in June 2012. However, the ECB approvals during Q1 of 2012-13 stood marginally lower at around US$ 7.6 billion as compared with US $ 8.0 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year (Table 3). Moreover, the disbursements of ECBs as per cent to total approvals declined to 69 per cent during Q1 of 2012-13 from 81.0 per cent in the corresponding period of the preceding year, mainly reflecting subdued domestic economic activity and growing risk aversion due to increased exchange rate volatility. Lower disbursements, as a result, along with higher repayments led to marginal decline in outstanding ECB at the end of Q1 of 2012-13.

Table 3 : External Commercial Borrowings

(US $ million)

Year

Approvals#

Gross Disbursement*

Amortisation*

Interest*

Total Servicing

1

2

3

4

5 (3+4)

2000-01

2,837

9,621

5,313

1,695

7,008

2001-02

2,653

2,684

4,272

1,456

5,728

2002-03

4,235

3,505

5,206

1,167

6,373

2003-04

6,671

5,225

8,015

2,031

10,046

2004-05

11,490

9,084

3,658

959

4,617

2005-06

17,175

14,343

11,584

3,015

14,599

2006-07

25,353

20,257

3,814

2,517

6,331

2007-08

28,900

28,700

6,060

3,652

9,712

2008-09

15,702

13,226

6,578

3,965

10,543

2009-10

20,636

13,980

11,498

3,244

14,742

2010-11 R

25,195

22,272

10,094

3,508

13,602

2011-12 PR

35,597

28,922

19,782

5,416

25,198

2011-12 (April-June) PR

7,980

6,451

831

187

1,018

2012-13 (April-June)P

7,581

5,214

4,371

1678

6,049

P: Preliminary; PR: Partially Revised; * Revised; based on Balance of Payments data.
# : Based on date of agreement of the loan which may differ from the date of granting the loan registration number by the RBI. Ceiling on ECB approvals is fixed on the basis of the latter, which may either be after or before the date of agreement of the loan. Hence, there may be some difference between the amount shown under approvals in the table and the amount of ceiling fixed for a particular year.
Note: Debt service payments during 2003-04 and 2005-06 include redemption of RIBs and IMDs, respectively.

US dollar denominated debt remains the highest in total external debt

The US Dollar denominated debt continued to be the largest with a share of 56.3 per cent in the total external debt as at end-June 2012 followed by Indian rupee (21.4 per cent), Japanese yen (9.1 per cent), SDR (8.3 per cent) and Euro (3.3 per cent) (Table 4).

Component of loans accounted for nearly half of external debt

The instrument-wise classification of India’s external debt across the borrower category reveals that the share of loans accounted for 48.7 per cent of total debt outstanding as at end-June 2012 as compared to 49.0 per cent as at end-March 2012. The share of trade credit (long-term and short-term) at 20.8 per cent as at end-June 2012 has been higher as compared to 19.5 per cent as at end-March 2012. The share of currency and deposits at 17.5 per cent of the total India’s external debt as at end-June 2012 also witnessed a marginal increase as against 17.0 per cent as at end-March 2012 (Table 5).

Table 4: Currency Composition of External Debt

(Percentage share in total external debt)

Currency

End-March

End-June

2010

2011

2012

2011

2012 P

1

2

3

4

5

US Dollar

53.2

53.6

55.0

54.2

56.3

SDR

10.7

9.7

8.7

9.5

8.3

Indian rupee

18.7

19.5

21.4

19.2

21.4

Japanese Yen

11.5

11.4

9.1

11.1

9.1

Euro

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.3

Pound Sterling

1.8

1.7

0.9

1.7

0.9

Others

0.5

0.4

1.2

0.6

0.7

Total

100

100

100

100

100

P: Preliminary; PR: Partially Revised.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.


Table 5: Instrument-wise Classification of External Debt Outstanding

(US$ million)

Borrower

End-March 2012

End-June 2012

1

2

A. Government (1+2+3)

81,895

80,152

1. Short-Term

6,107

5,418

(i) Money Market Instruments

6,107

5,418

2. Long-term {(i)+(ii)+(iii)}

69,626

68,698

(i) Bonds and Notes

5,261

5,047

(ii) Loans

62,801

62,057

(iii) Trade Credit

1,564

1,594

3. Other debt liabilities

6,163

6,037

(i) IMF

6,163

6,037

B. Monetary Authority

170

174

1. Short-term

170

174

(i) Currency and Deposits

170

174

C. Non-Government (1+2)

263,596

269,216

1. Short-Term {(i)+(ii)}

71,902

74,858

(i) Money Market Instruments

6,772

4,351

(ii) Trade Credit

65,130

70,508

2. Long-term{(i)+(ii)+(iii)+(iv)}

191,694

194,358

(i) Bonds and Notes

26,045

24,649

(ii) Loans

106,418

108,199

(iii) Currency and Deposits

58,608

60,874

(iv) Trade Credits

623

636

Total External Debt (A+B+C)

345,661

349,542

Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

Short-term debt based on residual maturity is nearly 43 per cent of total debt and over 50 per cent of foreign exchange reserves

Based on residual maturity, the short-term debt accounted for 42.9 per cent of total external debt as at end-June 2012. Within the short-term debt, the share of NRI deposits was the highest at 29 per cent. With relatively lower accretion to reserves, the ratio of short-term debt by residual maturity to foreign exchange reserves rose to 51.8 per cent at end-June 2012 (Table 6).

Share of trade credit in short-term debt rose as at end-June 2012-13

Short-term debt predominantly comprised of trade credit and FII investments in Government debt, and other components include investment by foreign central banks and international institutions in Treasury Bills and external liabilities owed to central banks and commercial banks.

Short-term debt by original maturity has increased as at end-June 2012 over end-March 2012 on account of increase in trade related credits with maturity band of six months to one year mainly reflecting higher availment by oil companies. The share of short-term trade credit in total short-term debt was higher at 87.6 per cent as at end-June 2012 as compared with 83.3 per cent as at end-March 2012 (Table 7).

Table 6: Residual Maturity of External Debt Outstanding as at End-June 2012

(US $ million)

Components

Short-term

Long-term

Total

Up to one year

1 to 2 years

2 to 3 years

More than 3 years

(1) to (4)

1

2

3

4

5

1. Sovereign Debt (long-term) $

4,433

4,620

4,835

60,846

74,735

2. External Commercial Borrowings #

21,804

15,877

19,430

76,372

133,484

3. NRI deposits {(i)+(ii)+(iii)}

43,327

5,595

4,548

7,404

60,874

(i) FCNR(B)

11,660

1,313

799

500

14,272

(ii) NR(E)RA

23,621

3,069

3,104

5,887

35,681

(iii) NRO

8,046

1,213

645

1,017

10,921

4. Short-term Debt* (Original maturity)

80,450

0

0

0

80,450

Total (1 to 4)

150,014

26,093

28,813

144,622

349,542

Memo Items

 

Short-term debt (Residual maturity as per cent of total debt )

42.9

 

 

 

 

Short-term debt (Residual maturity as per cent of Reserves)

51.8

 

 

 

 

$ : Inclusive of FII investment in Government securities amounting to US $ 5,047 million.
# : External Commercial Borrowings are inclusive of trade credit and a portion of non-Government multilateral and bilateral borrowing and therefore may not tally with the ECB provided in other Tables under original maturity.
* : Also includes short-term component of sovereign debt amounting to US$ 5,362 million.
Note: Residual Maturity of NRI Deposits is estimated on the basis of returns submitted by authorised dealers. Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.


Table 7: Short-Term Debt by Original Maturity

(US $ Million)

 

End-March

End-June

2010

2011

2012

2011

2012

1

2

3

4

5

A. Short-Term Debt

52,329

64,990

78,179

68,474

80,450

a) Trade-related Credits

47,473

58,462

65,130

61,532

70,508

(i) Above 6 months and upto 1 year

28,003

35,347

39,182

36,933

45,220

(ii) Up to 6 months

19,470

23,116

25,948

24,599

25,288

b) FII Investments in Government Treasury Bills & other instruments

3357

5,424

9,395

5901

8,268

c) Investment in Treasury Bills by foreign central banks and international institutions, etc.

103

50

64

48

56

d) External Debt Liabilities of:

1,396

1,053

3,590

993

1,619

(i) Central Bank

695

155

170

133

174

(ii) Commercial Bank

701

898

3420

860

1445

B. Imports (during the year)*

300,644

381,061

499,533

417,504

495,063

C. Trade Credit to Imports (%)

15.8

15.3

13.0

14.7

14.2

* : On balance of payment basis.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India

Share of Government debt recorded marginal decline

Government (Sovereign) external debt stood at US$ 80.1 billion as at end-June 2012 as against US$ 81.9 billion as at end-March 2012. The shares of Government and non-Government external debt in the total external debt were 22.9 per cent and 77.1 per cent, respectively, as at end-June 2012 as compared to 23.7 per cent and 76.3 per cent, respectively, at the end of the preceding quarter (Table 8).

Servicing of ECBs accounted for 80 per cent of total debt service payments

Debt service ratio is measured by the proportion of total debt service payments (i.e., principal repayments plus interest payments) to current receipts (minus official transfers) on Balance of Payments (BoP) basis. During Q1 of 2012-13, India’s debt service ratio improved marginally to 5.9 per cent from 6.0 per cent during 2011-12 (Table 9). Servicing of External Commercial Borrowings (including principal and interest payments) increased to around 80 per cent of total debt service payments during 2011-12 and Q1 of 2012-13 from an average of about 70 per cent during the period 2008-09 to 2010-11 indicating growing recourse to the use of ECBs by the companies to meet their financing requirements.

Table 8: Government and Non-Government External Debt

(US $ million)

Components

End-March

End June

2010

2011

2012

2012

 

1

2

3

4

A. Sovereign Debt (I+II)

67,067

78,071

81,895

80,152

(As a percentage of GDP)

4.6

4.7

4.7

-

I. External Debt on Government Account under External Assistance

55,235

62,295

63,374

62,750

II. Other Government External Debt @

11,845

15,776

18,521

17,402

B. Non-Government Debt #

193,868

227,859

263,766

269,390

(As a percentage of GDP)

13.6

13.2

15.3

 

C. Total External Debt (A+B)

260,935

305,931

345,661

349,543

(As a percentage of GDP)

18.3

17.8

20.0

-

@ : Other Government external debt includes defence debt, investment in Treasury Bills/ Government securities by FIIs, foreign central banks and international institutions. # Includes external debt of Monetary Authority.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.


Table 9: India's External Debt Service Payments

(US $ Million)

Sr. No.

Item

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

April-June 2012

1

2

3

4

5

1

External Assistance

3,384

3,461

3,667

3,923

826

 

Repayment

2,375

2,585

2,839

3,125

657

 

Interest

1009

876

828

798

169

2

External Commercial Borrowings

10543

14742

13602

25198

6049

 

Repayment

6,578

11,498

10,094

19,782

4371

 

Interest

3,965

3,244

3,508

5,416

1678

3

I.M.F.

0

0

0

0

0

 

Repayment

0

0

0

0

0

 

Interest

0

0

0

0

0

4

NRI Deposits Interest

1,547

1,599

1,737

2,313

827

5

Rupee Debt Service Repayments

101

97

17

79

26

6

Total Debt Service (1 to 5)

15,575

19,899

19,075

31,513

7,728

 

Repayment

9,054

14,180

13,002

22,986

5,054

 

Interest

6,521

5,719

6,073

8,527

2,674

7

Current Receipts #

356,175

345,144

448,067

528,372

130,679

 

Debt Service Ratio (6/7) (%)

4.4

5.8

4.3

6.0

5.9

#: Currents Receipts minus Official Transfers.
Note: Debt Service ratio is defined as total repayments of principal and interest on debt as a ratio of current receipts.
Source: Ministry of Finance. Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

Based on outstanding long-term debt, as at end- June 2012, principal repayments for ECBs including Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) are projected to be higher between 2015-16 and 2016-17 though they are expected to come down in the subsequent years. The projections do not include future debt service obligations arising out of fresh borrowings (Table 10).

Key Indicators of India’s External Debt

Among the indicators of external debt considered for assessing vulnerability, while the solvency indicator, i.e., debt service ratio, showed a shade better during the first quarter 2012-13 than the Q4 2011-12, the other solvency indicators, viz., debt-GDP ratio, short-term debt to foreign exchange reserves and total external debt showed some deterioration as at end-June 2012 as compared to end-March 2012 (Table 11).

Table 10: Projected Debt Service Payments for ECBs and FCCBs

(US$ million)

Year

Principal

Interest

Total

1

2

3

2012-13*

12,644

2,331

14,975

2013-14

9,081

2,483

11,564

2014-15

11,828

2,283

14,111

2015-16

14,416

1,956

16,372

2016-17

14,537

1,383

15,920

2017-18

9,550

836

10,386

2018-19

4,941

511

5,452

2019-20

2,690

343

3,033

2020-21

2,267

233

2,500

2021-22

1,658

138

1,796

2022-23

764

83

847

2023-24

679

55

734

*: Exclusive Q1 of 2012-13. Note: Projections on debt servicing are based on the end-March 2012 debt outstanding position.


Table 11: India’s Key External Debt Indicators

Year

External Debt

Ratio of External Debt to GDP

Debt Service Ratio

Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total Debt

Ratio of Concessional Debt to Total Debt

Ratio of Short-Term Debt to Foreign Exchange Reserves

Ratio of Short- Term Debt to Total Debt

(US $ billion)

(per cent)

(per cent)

(per cent)

(per cent)

(per cent)

(per cent)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990-91

83.8

28.7

35.3

7.0

45.9

146.5

10.2

1995-96

93.7

27.0

26.2

23.1

44.7

23.2

5.4

2000-01

101.3

22.5

16.6

41.7

35.4

8.6

3.6

2001-02

98.8

21.1

13.7

54.7

35.9

5.1

2.8

2002-03

104.9

20.3

16.0*

72.5

36.8

6.1

4.5

2003-04

112.6

18.0

16.1**

100.3

35.8

3.9

3.9

2004-05

134.0

18.1

5.9 ^

105.6

30.7

12.5

13.2

2005-06

139.1

16.8

10.1 #

109.0

28.4

12.9

14.0

2006-07

172.4

17.5

4.7

115.6

23.0

14.1

16.3

2007-08

224.4

18.0

4.8

138.0

19.7

14.8

20.4

2008-09

224.5

20.3

4.4

112.1

18.7

17.2

19.3

2009-10 PR

260.9

18.3

5.8

106.8

16.8

18.8

20.0

2010-11 PR

305.9

17.8

4.3

99.6

15.5

21.3

21.2

2011-12 PR

345.7

20.0

6.0

85.1

13.8

26.6

22.6

End-June 2012P

 349.5

21.7

5.9

82.9

13.5

27.8

23

P: Provisional. PR: Partially Revised.
* : Works out to 12.4 per cent, with the exclusion of pre-payment of external debt of US $ 3,430 million.
** : Works out to 8.2 per cent with the exclusion of pre-payment of external debt of US $ 3,797 million and redemption of Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs) of US $ 5,549 million.
^ : Works out to 5.7 per cent with the exclusion of pre-payment of external debt of US $ 381 million.
# : Works out to 6.3 per cent with the exclusion of India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) repayments of US $ 7.1 billion and pre-payment of external debt of US $ 23.5 million.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

Section II: External Debt: Cross-Country Comparison

The international comparison of external debt of the twenty most indebted countries based on the latest data available in Global Development Finance Online Database, World Bank, reveals that China remains at the top in terms of external debt followed by Russian Federation, Brazil and Turkey. India was the fifth most indebted country in 2010, the same as in the previous year (Table 12).

Table 12: Total External Debt Outstanding

(US $ billion)

Country Name

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

China

283.0

322.8

373.1

379.8

432.2

548.6

Russian Federation

239.9

250.7

361.3

402.7

373.4

384.7

Brazil

187.5

193.5

237.6

262.2

276.9

347.0

Turkey

168.8

204.8

252.9

284.1

271.2

293.9

India

139.1

172.4

224.4

224.5

260.9

305.9

Mexico

165.8

161.2

178.6

187.1

171.5

200.1

Indonesia

134.3

125.3

133.8

147.6

162.9

179.1

Argentina

124.9

115.9

117.3

118.9

120.3

127.8

Romania

38.9

53.9

84.2

102.5

118.0

121.5

Kazakhstan

43.5

72.4

95.5

107.3

111.1

118.7

Ukraine

32.5

51.2

77.5

96.7

103.4

116.8

Chile

45.4

50.2

56.2

65.4

73.1

86.3

Malaysia

51.9

54.9

61.4

66.1

66.3

81.5

Philippines

61.7

60.4

66.0

65.0

63.1

72.3

Thailand

46.4

45.9

45.3

49.8

57.9

71.3

Colombia

37.7

38.0

43.7

46.4

52.1

63.1

Pakistan

33.6

36.7

41.5

49.1

54.6

56.8

Venezuela, RB

44.9

43.7

48.3

52.8

55.2

55.6

Bulgaria

15.7

21.0

33.0

48.6

53.5

48.1

South Africa

31.1

35.5

43.6

42.6

42.5

45.2

Note: The source for India is Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. Therefore, the data for India pertain to financial year (April- March) and not calendar year.
Sources: Global Development Finance Online Database, World Bank, Ministry

India’s debt indicators compare favourably with those of Top 20 indebted countries

In terms of concessional debt, India stands at the fourth highest position after Pakistan, Indonesia and Philippines. In debt service ratio it was the fifth lowest after China, Thailand, South Africa and Malaysia. In terms of ratio of external debt to Gross National Income (GNI), India’s position was fourth lowest, with China having the lowest ratio of external debt. In terms of short-term debt to total external debt, India’s position was seventh lowest. Similarly, in terms of short-term debt to total reserves, India’s position was fifth lowest as Russian Federation, Philippines, China, and Pakistan had higher reserves to debt ratio than India (Table 13). Instrument-wise, debt position of select countries indicates that the share of trade credit in total external debt was the highest for India; the share of debt as Russian Federation, Phillippines, China, and Packistan has lower reserves to debt ratio than India. Instrumentwise external debt indicate that debt securities was relatively lower in case of India compared to major EMEs (Table 13 and Table 14).

Table 13: International Comparison of Top Twenty Debtor Countries, 2010

Country Name

Total External Debt (US $ billion)

Concessional Debt/ Total External Debt (per cent)

Debt Service Ratio (per cent)

External Debt Stock/GNI (per cent)

Short-term Debt/Total External Debt (per cent)

Short-term Debt/Total Reserves (per cent)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Argentina

127.8

2.0

16.7

36.1

27.4

67.1

Brazil

347.0

3.3

19.0

16.9

18.9

22.7

Bulgaria

48.1

1.9

14.2

104.8

32.0

89.3

Chile

86.3

0.3

15.2

45.9

30.0

93.0

China

548.6

7.3

3.3

9.3

63.4

11.9

Colombia

63.1

1.9

21.0

22.8

13.0

29.2

India

305.9

15.5

4.3

17.8

21.2

21.3

Indonesia

179.1

25.6

16.6

26.1

17.5

32.5

Kazakhstan

118.7

1.0

71.4

94.3

7.6

32.0

Malaysia

81.5

4.3

5.2

35.4

43.0

32.9

Mexico

200.1

1.2

9.8

19.5

19.5

32.4

Pakistan

56.8

59.1

15.2

31.3

4.0

13.3

Philippines

72.3

21.6

18.4

36.2

8.7

10.1

Romania

121.5

5.8

31.2

76.4

20.6

52.1

Russian Federation

384.7

0.5

12.8

26.9

10.1

8.1

South Africa

45.2

0.0

4.9

12.7

27.2

28.1

Thailand

71.3

9.4

4.8

23.4

54.0

22.4

Turkey

293.9

3.3

36.7

40.4

26.6

90.9

Ukraine

116.8

1.1

40.7

85.9

22.7

76.5

Venezuela, RB

55.6

2.9

8.8

14.3

27.8

52.0

Source: Data for India as published by national authorities for 2010-11 and those for other countries as at end-December 2010 as available in World Bank’s Global Development Finance Online Database.

The sector-wise debt position of select countries reveals that the share of Government debt at about one-fourth of total external was relatively higher compared to other EMEs like Brazil, Kazakhstan, Romania and Russian Federation; while the share of banks in total external debt at about 18 per cent was lower for India compared to most of these EMEs (Table 15).

The concessional debt as a percentage of total debt has declined over the years as a result of growing importance of external borrowings from private sources at commercial terms (Table 16).

The debt to national income ratio provides some indication of burden of servicing external debt. Among the top 20 debtor countries, India ranked fourth lowest in terms of the ratio of external debt to National Income (Table 17).

Table 14: Gross External Debt Position by Instrument

US $ billion

2011Q4

Countries

Debt Securities

Loans

Currency and Deposits

Trade Credits

Other Liabilities

Direct Investment Intercompany Lending

Total

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Argentina

49.2

36.8

0.5

12.9

17.5

24.0

141.0

Brazil

111.6

144.6

0.6

33.1

8.3

105.9

404.1

India

37.7

168.6

52.6

66.6

6.1

0.0

331.6

Indonesia

65.2

140.5

7.1

6.4

6.2

0.0

225.4

Kazakhstan

17.7

35.7

1.1

8.7

0.8

59.9

123.8

Mexico

175.6

81.0

5.0

16.7

7.8

0.0

286.1

Poland

100.7

95.4

32.5

16.1

4.7

75.1

324.5

Romania

8.6

73.2

18.5

2.8

2.0

23.9

128.9

Russian Federation

44.8

241.5

157.3

2.4

14.1

85.3

545.4

Turkey

50.5

185.2

38.0

25.7

1.5

5.5

306.4

2012Q1

Argentina

50.8

35.9

0.4

13.1

17.6

24.0

141.8

Brazil

115.9

143.0

0.8

33.8

7.7

113.2

414.4

India

41.3

172.7

58.8

66.7

6.2

0.0

345.7

Indonesia

66.7

141.7

6.9

5.9

7.3

0.0

228.5

Kazakhstan

19.0

36.0

1.2

8.7

0.9

63.4

129.3

Mexico

203.7

76.9

2.9

17.7

7.3

0.0

308.5

Poland

114.0

99.3

33.8

16.7

5.0

81.6

350.4

Romania

10.8

74.8

18.3

2.7

2.1

24.7

133.4

Russian Federation

50.8

248.7

158.6

2.9

15.3

89.2

565.5

Turkey

53.8

188.1

43.3

25.7

1.5

5.8

318.2

- : Nil/Negligible. Note: Data in respect of India is partially revised.
Source: Quarterly External Debt Statistics. The World Bank and IMF.

Solvency indicators compare well with those top 20 indebted countries

The ratio of debt-service payments to exports of goods and services is a key solvency indicator that gauges the extent to which the export revenue is used in servicing its debt. Higher the ratio, more vulnerable is the economy. During 2010, the ratio was placed at 5.6 per cent, the fifth lowest among top 20 debtor countries of the world. The Latin American countries and some the CIS nations continue to have high debt service ratios, reflecting heavy burden of amortisation and interest payments. Similarly, other solvency parameters such as the ratio of short-term debt to total external debt and the ratio of short-term debt to international reserves in case of India continued to be at moderate level as compared with the top 20 debtor countries of the world (Table 18).

The Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS), jointly developed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, brings out detailed external debt data of countries that are subscribing to IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard/General Data Dissemination System. The position in respect of the 69 reporting countries for the fourth quarter of 2011, and the first quarter of 2012 which has been released by the World Bank is given at Annex I.

European Banks Exposure to India

The debt crisis in the euro zone has raised concerns about the continuous flow of funds to India. According to the Bank of International Settlements, consolidated foreign claims on India were estimated at $ 311.6 billion on immediate borrower basis as at end- June 2012; of which European banks accounted for $132.2 billion. The amount others owed to India on an ultimate risk basis was $ 43.6 billion of which European entities excluding UK accounted for $ 6.6 billion.

Section III: External Debt Management in India and Recent Policy Measures

The external debt policy of India continues to focus on raising sovereign loans on concessional terms with longer maturities, regulating the levels of ECB and their end-use, rationalising the interest rates on Non- Resident Indian (NRI) deposits, and monitoring short-term debt. In terms of hierarchy, long-term flows are preferable to short-term. ECB flows under both the automatic and approval routes are moderated by interest rate ceilings and those under the automatic route are governed by an indicative ceiling on total quantity as well. There is also a limit on FII investment in debt securities comprising of government securities and corporate bonds. Amidst subdued FII equity flows, policy measures were undertaken to improve capital inflows particularly debt flows for smooth financing of the current account deficit.

Table 15: Gross External Debt Position by Sector (USD billion)

Countries

General Government

Monetary Authorities

Banks

Other Sectors

Direct Investment Intercompany

2011Q4

1

2

3

4

5

6

 Argentina

68.2

5.0

3.9

39.8

24.0

Brazil

57.8

4.4

138.2

97.7

105.9

India

81.2

0.1

57.9

192.1

..

Indonesia

112.4

6.2

18.5

88.3

..

Kazakhstan

4.5

0.6

14.6

44.3

59.9

Mexico

127.4

4.9

22.0

131.8

..

Poland

115.7

5.0

66.4

62.2

75.1

Romania

28.8

14.8

29.4

32.0

23.9

Russian Federation

34.7

11.2

162.2

251.9

85.3

Turkey

82.9

9.7

90.1

118.2

5.5

2012 Q1

Argentina

69.7

4.0

3.7

40.3

24.0

Brazil

58.7

4.5

138.0

100.0

113.2

India

81.9

0.2

65.3

198.5

..

Indonesia

112.5

5.9

19.2

90.9

..

Kazakhstan

4.6

0.7

14.8

45.8

63.4

Mexico

150.2

4.7

18.4

135.1

..

Poland

129.8

6.7

66.9

65.3

81.6

Romania

31.9

14.9

29.5

32.4

24.7

Russian Federation

36.3

11.5

168.4

260.0

89.2

Turkey

85.5

9.7

95.8

121.5

5.8

.. Not available. Note: Data in respect of India is partially revised.
Source: Quarterly External Debt Statistics. World Bank & IMF

Recent Policy Developments

External Commercial Borrowings

Taking into account the financing requirements of the corporate sector and prevailing liquidity conditions in the domestic and international financial markets, the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India, regularly reviews the policy stance on External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and trade credits and introduce various policy measures that are consistent with the debt management objectives. The principal elements of policy for ECBs include keeping the maturities long, costs low and encouraging investments in infrastructure and export sectors. ECB by corporates are permitted through automatic route and approval routes. Proposals that meet minimum criterion are permitted under the automatic route and other cases fall under the approval route are considered by an empowered Committee of the Reserve Bank.

June 2012

Indian companies in manufacturing and infrastructure sector and having foreign exchange earnings have been allowed to avail of ECB for repayment of outstanding Rupee loans towards capital expenditure and/or fresh Rupee capital expenditure under the approval route with an overall ceiling for such ECBs placed at US $ 10 billion.

September 2012

It was decided to allow companies in the infrastructure sector, where ‘infrastructure’ is as defined under the extant guidelines on ECB to avail of trade credit up to a maximum period of five years for import of capital goods.

The rate of withholding tax on interest payments on external commercial borrowings was reduced from 20 per cent to 5 per cent which is applicable for three years, i.e., July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2015. This is expected to reduce the cost of ECB borrowing by companies.

Table 16: Nature of Indebtedness of Top Twenty Countries

(Per cent)

Country Name

Concessional debt to Total external debt

PPG@ to Total external debt

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Argentina

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.9

1.3

1.7

2.0

Brazil

1.4

1.1

1.4

2.4

3.3

3.0

1.6

1.4

0.9

0.7

Bulgaria

3.7

2.6

2.0

1.8

1.9

2.7

1.8

2.3

1.0

0.9

Chile

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.6

0.4

China

10.6

10.1

10.8

10.0

7.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Colombia

2.7

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

3.5

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.6

India

28.4

23.0

19.7

18.7

16.8

0.6

0.8

1.2

0.5

0.4

Indonesia

29.5

28.6

29.3

26.8

25.6

2.6

2.6

1.9

1.9

1.3

Kazakhstan

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.8

0.2

0.2

0.3

Malaysia

9.0

5.3

6.5

5.6

4.3

2.4

2.6

1.2

3.3

1.2

Mexico

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.8

1.2

4.1

2.0

1.8

1.9

1.8

Pakistan

70.4

68.3

62.0

58.8

59.1

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.6

Philippines

20.6

20.0

23.1

22.9

21.6

7.0

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.9

Romania

2.1

1.6

1.6

3.5

5.8

1.8

1.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

Russian Federation

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

3.9

1.2

1.8

1.8

1.7

South Africa

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.6

Thailand

14.1

13.5

13.6

10.9

9.4

1.7

1.0

1.1

0.6

0.5

Turkey

2.1

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.3

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.5

Ukraine

3.5

2.1

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.7

1.3

0.7

2.3

1.2

Venezuela, RB

0.9

0.9

0.8

1.8

2.9

4.6

1.9

1.6

1.0

1.3

@ Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt.
Note: The source data for India is Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. Therefore, the data for India pertain to financial year (April-March) and not calendar year.
Source: Global Development Finance Online Database, World Bank, Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

Foreign Institutional Investors

The recent policy measures pertaining to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) having a bearing on capital inflows are detailed below.

June 2012

The limit for investment by FIIs in Government securities was increased by an additional amount of US$ 5 billion to US$ 20 billion. In order to broad base the non-resident investor base for government securities, long term investors like Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), multilateral agencies, endowment funds, insurance funds, pension funds and foreign central banks were allowed to invest in government securities for the entire limit of US$ 20 billion. With this the total FII investment in debt securities comprising government and corporate bonds now stands at US$ 65 billion.

The terms and conditions for the scheme for FII investment in infrastructure debt and the scheme for non-resident investment in Infrastructure Development Funds (IDFs) were further rationalised in terms of lockin period and residual maturity. Further, Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) can invest in those mutual fund (MF) schemes that hold at least 25 per cent of their assets (either in debt or in equity or both) in infrastructure sector under the current US$ 3 billion sub-limit for investment in mutual funds related to infrastructure.

Table 17: Debt to Current Receipts and National Income Ratio

(Per cent)

Country Name

External debt stocks ( per cent of GNI)

External Debt Stocks ( per cent of Current Receipts) @

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Argentina

55.5

45.9

37.2

40.4

36.1

192.3

160.8

135.4

171.2

152.1

Brazil

18.2

17.8

16.2

17.7

16.9

118.2

121.2

108.8

146.1

143.9

Bulgaria

64.9

84.8

98.7

114.1

104.8

95.5

119.9

152.2

219.3

169.5

Chile

39.1

38.6

41.5

49.0

45.9

71.8

67.5

78.8

107.6

98.3

China

11.8

10.6

8.3

8.6

9.3

28.9

26.2

22.6

30.0

28.9

Colombia

24.3

21.9

19.8

23.0

22.8

126.5

121.2

104.5

131.9

135.4

India

16.8

16.4

18.7

18.2

16.9

78.6

80.1

70.3

90.9

80.9

Indonesia

35.9

32.3

30.0

31.3

26.1

106.6

99.9

93.2

120.9

101.3

Kazakhstan

101.3

104.1

94.2

108.4

94.3

168.4

172.5

134.7

219.3

177.4

Malaysia

36.2

33.6

30.8

35.1

35.4

28.7

28.3

27.3

33.5

32.1

Mexico

17.3

17.6

17.3

19.8

19.5

59.2

60.1

59.0

68.7

62.7

Pakistan

28.2

28.5

29.3

32.8

31.3

171.4

178.2

183.3

238.0

198.8

Philippines

49.9

44.5

37.4

37.5

36.2

105.3

102.2

101.6

116.2

103.3

Romania

45.0

49.8

51.4

71.9

76.4

129.8

157.9

155.4

226.2

204.7

Russian Federation

26.1

28.5

25.0

31.6

26.9

68.8

81.9

68.9

98.7

79.8

South Africa

13.9

15.8

16.0

15.4

12.7

42.2

44.9

40.6

51.4

43.3

Thailand

23.1

19.0

19.0

22.8

23.4

29.2

24.0

23.0

31.0

30.5

Turkey

39.1

39.5

39.3

44.7

40.4

165.6

167.7

155.3

182.7

184.0

Ukraine

48.3

55.1

54.1

90.1

85.9

99.3

114.5

106.2

175.7

157.9

Venezuela, RB

24.0

21.1

16.9

17.1

14.3

58.1

59.7

50.1

89.2

80.0

@ Current receipts include exports of goods and services (including workers’ remittances).
Note: In this Table, the source of data for India is Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. Therefore, the data for India since 1990 onwards pertain to financial year (April-March) and not calendar year. Figures pertain to external debt to GDP ratio.
Source: Global Development Finance, World Bank, Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

Non-Resident Indian Deposits

With a view to providing greater flexibility to banks in mobilising non-resident deposits and also in view of the prevailing market conditions, interest rates on Non-Resident (External) Rupee (NRE) Deposits and Ordinary Non-Resident (NRO) Accounts were deregulated in December 2011. Accordingly, banks are free to determine their interest rates on both savings deposits and term deposits of maturity of one year and above under Non-Resident (External) Rupee (NRE) Deposits and savings deposits under Ordinary Non- Resident (NRO) Accounts. However, interest rates offered by banks on NRE and NRO deposits cannot be higher than those offered by them on comparable domestic rupee deposits. The revised deposit rates are applicable to fresh deposits and on renewal of maturing deposits.

May 2012

During May 2012, policy measures were taken in respect of Foreign Currency Non-Resident [FCNR (B)] deposits and export credit in foreign currency to improve the flow of foreign currency. Interest rate ceiling on FCNR (B) deposits of banks was raised from 125 basis points (bps) above the corresponding LIBOR/ Swap rates to 200 bps for maturity period of 1 year to less than 3 years, and to 300 bps for maturity period of 3 to 5 years.

Export Credit

The ceiling rate on export credit in foreign currency which was constraining the availability of credit to exporters in foreign currency was deregulated by allowing banks to freely determine their interest rates on such credit.

Table 18: Solvency Indicators – Debt and Interest Service Ratio

(Per cent)

Country

Debt Service Ratio

Interest Service Ratio

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Argentina

36.2

12.3

8.8

17.3

16.7

6.6

5.2

3.5

4.8

4.3

Brazil

38.0

28.0

23.4

23.5

19.0

9.0

7.4

6.7

7.5

5.7

Bulgaria

12.4

15.3

16.8

21.4

14.2

3.4

4.2

5.0

6.2

2.2

Chile

20.8

14.3

19.5

25.6

15.2

2.9

2.6

2.3

2.7

2.7

China

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.8

3.3

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.4

1.8

Colombia

34.4

23.9

17.8

22.3

21.0

8.6

8.3

6.8

7.4

6.9

India

4.7

4.8

4.4

5.8

4.3

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.4

Indonesia

24.0

17.9

13.5

18.5

16.6

3.2

3.8

2.9

3.3

3.0

Kazakhstan

33.7

49.1

42.0

50.9

71.4

5.4

6.5

5.5

11.2

7.4

Malaysia

4.0

4.8

3.6

6.1

5.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.1

0.8

Mexico

19.7

12.3

10.4

12.3

9.8

4.2

4.1

3.0

3.4

3.0

Pakistan

10.8

11.3

11.3

15.2

15.2

4.0

4.8

4.0

4.5

3.7

Philippines

23.9

15.7

19.1

18.2

18.4

6.8

5.9

6.2

6.4

4.8

Romania

20.8

21.7

27.5

31.2

31.2

5.2

6.1

5.6

6.1

4.7

Russian Federation

13.8

9.1

11.5

15.1

12.8

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.8

3.7

South Africa

6.5

5.4

4.3

4.5

4.9

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.0

2.4

Thailand

9.4

11.8

7.8

6.7

4.8

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

Turkey

32.9

32.4

30.3

41.9

36.7

7.9

8.0

7.4

8.2

7.2

Ukraine

18.0

17.6

19.7

38.8

40.7

4.3

4.6

4.1

7.8

6.0

Venezuela, RB

13.1

7.3

5.8

6.4

8.8

4.4

4.4

3.2

5.1

5.0

.. Not available.
Note: The source data for India is Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. Therefore, the data for India pertain to financial year (April-March) and not calendar year.
Source: Global Development Finance Online Database, World Bank, Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

Section IV: Conclusion

There was a moderate increase in external debt during Q1 of 2012-13 largely due to valuation gains emanating from appreciation of US dollar against Indian rupee and other international currencies. The increase in external debt during this period was primarily on account of rise in Non-resident external Rupee denominated ((NR (E) RA) deposits and increase in short-term trade credit. The disbursements of external commercial borrowings turned out to be lower during Q1 of 2012-13 than the corresponding period of previous year due to risk aversion. With regard to currency composition of debt, the US dollar denominated debt continued to the highest constituting more than fifty per cent of total external debt. India fares better in terms of various indicators vis-à-vis top twenty indebted countries. The key indicators suggest that though the external debt is within in manageable level, there was some deterioration during the first quarter in terms of solvency indicators such as short-term debt to total debt and reserves to total debt warranting close monitoring of external debt. The trends also underscore the need to renew focus on equity flows for financing of current account deficit from the point of view of debt sustainability in the medium term.


Annex I: Gross External Debt of QUEDS reporting countries for End-December 2011 and End-March 2012 - Original Maturity

(US $ billion)

Countries

2011Q4

2012Q1

Short-term

Long-term

Total

Short-term

Long-term

Total

1

Argentina

41.4

99.6

141.0

40.4

101.4

141.8

2

Armenia

0.9

6.5

7.4

0.7

6.7

7.3

3

Australia

339.9

949.0

1,289.0

342.1

996.2

1,338.3

4

Austria

216.5

570.4

786.8

233.1

587.6

820.7

5

Belarus

13.4

20.6

34.0

12.9

20.8

33.7

6

Belgium

720.7

682.7

1,403.5

690.6

726.9

1,417.5

7

Brazil

40.1

364.0

404.1

34.2

380.2

414.4

8

Bulgaria

12.9

33.8

46.7

13.3

35.4

48.7

9

Canada

399.8

796.2

1,196.0

393.6

819.2

1,212.8

10

Chile

17.2

81.4

98.6

17.8

82.1

99.9

11

Colombia

10.8

65.1

75.9

10.1

66.8

76.9

12

Costa Rica

2.9

7.9

10.8

2.9

8.0

10.9

13

Croatia

6.7

52.9

59.6

7.1

54.6

61.7

14

Czech Republic

28.0

65.9

93.9

30.3

72.6

102.9

15

Denmark

250.8

317.8

568.6

265.9

328.7

594.6

16

Ecuador

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

17

Egypt

3.0

30.7

33.7

3.0

30.5

33.4

18

El Salvador

1.2

10.9

12.2

1.2

11.0

12.2

19

Estonia

8.4

11.8

20.2

8.8

12.4

21.2

20

Finland

252.3

283.5

535.8

275.7

307.3

583.0

21

France

1,873.2

3,130.6

5,003.8

1,877.7

3,323.9

5,201.6

22

Georgia

1.6

9.6

11.3

1.7

9.7

11.4

23

Germany

1,793.5

3,534.2

5,327.7

2,103.8

3,676.8

5,780.6

24

Greece

234.9

241.6

476.5

245.7

272.8

518.4

25

Hong Kong, China

713.1

203.6

916.6

740.7

216.4

957.1

26

Hungary

31.5

174.9

206.4

30.3

180.3

210.6

27

Iceland

66.2

44.6

110.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

28

India

76.0

255.4

331.4

78.2

267.6

345.8

29

Indonesia

38.2

187.2

225.4

37.4

191.1

228.5

30

Ireland

619.7

1,593.5

2,213.2

579.8

1,634.3

2,214.1

31

Israel

45.6

58.4

103.9

42.0

58.1

100.1

32

Italy

689.9

1,646.1

2,336.0

798.4

1,703.3

2,501.7

33

Japan

2,272.7

842.5

3,115.2

2,284.2

778.2

3,062.3

34

Jordan

9.9

7.3

17.2

9.8

7.5

17.3

35

Kazakhstan

8.9

114.9

123.8

8.9

120.4

129.3

36

Korea

136.1

262.2

398.4

136.3

275.1

411.4

37

Kyrgyz Republic

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

38

Latvia

12.0

26.0

38.0

12.8

27.1

39.9

39

Lithuania

5.2

26.9

32.1

5.3

30.3

35.6

40

Luxembourg

1,152.0

904.9

2,056.9

1,212.7

973.6

2,186.2

41

Macedonia

1.7

4.6

6.3

1.8

4.8

6.6

42

Malaysia

43.7

48.0

91.7

45.3

47.9

93.2

43

Malta

31.3

12.3

43.5

32.5

13.0

45.5

44

Mexico

51.3

234.7

286.1

59.3

249.2

308.5

45

Moldova

1.9

3.6

5.5

1.9

3.7

5.7

46

Morocco

3.8

25.7

29.6

4.3

26.4

30.7

47

Netherlands

1,009.7

1,442.8

2,452.5

1,081.3

1,466.8

2,548.0

48

Norway

242.3

344.0

586.3

273.0

369.4

642.4


Annex I: Gross External Debt of QUEDS reporting countries for End-December 2011 and
End-March 2012 - Original Maturity (Concld.)

(US $ billion)

Countries

2011Q4

2012Q1

Short-term

Long-term

Total

Short-term

Long-term

Total

49

Peru

6.3

37.2

43.5

7.1

39.6

46.7

50

Philippines

7.0

54.7

61.7

7.4

55.5

62.9

51

Poland

45.5

279.0

324.5

46.8

303.7

350.4

52

Portugal

191.3

289.4

480.7

213.2

293.4

506.7

53

Romania

20.2

108.7

128.9

20.1

113.3

133.4

54

Russian Federation

69.9

475.5

545.4

72.1

493.3

565.5

55

Singapore

888.5

197.0

1,085.4

905.0

200.7

1,105.7

56

Slovak Republic

29.7

39.0

68.6

28.6

42.0

70.6

57

Slovenia

11.0

42.8

53.8

15.4

41.1

56.5

58

South Africa

18.9

92.6

111.5

21.8

96.7

118.5

59

Spain

780.1

1,493.7

2,273.8

869.2

1,508.1

2,377.3

60

Sweden

319.0

670.6

989.6

326.9

706.5

1,033.4

61

Switzerland

805.1

465.1

1,270.1

842.0

494.7

1,336.7

62

Thailand

45.0

61.0

106.0

56.2

63.0

119.2

63

Tunisia

4.9

17.5

22.5

5.5

17.6

23.1

64

Turkey

83.8

222.6

306.4

90.2

228.0

318.2

65

Ukraine

32.7

93.5

126.2

32.8

94.1

126.9

66

United Kingdom

7,011.3

2,862.9

9,874.2

7,264.2

2,944.0

10,208.1

67

United States

5,414.3

10,093.9

15,508.2

5,263.6

10,217.7

15,481.2

68

Uruguay

0.1

13.9

14.1

0.1

14.5

14.6

69

EURO Area

0.0

1,830.8

1,830.8

0.0

1,843.3

1,843.3

Source: : Table 1 of the Quarterly External Debt Database, World Bank.


Statement 1 : India's External Debt Outstanding

(` billion)

Item

Jun-11 R

Sep- 11 R

Dec-11 R

Mar-12 PR

Jun-12 QE

1

2

3

4

5

I. Multilateral

2,225

2,404

2,657

2,571

2,849

A. Government borrowing

1,939

2,090

2,310

2,226

2,445

i) Concessional

1,225

1,309

1,436

1,387

1,498

a) IDA

1,209

1,291

1,417

1,368

1,478

b) Others #

16

18

19

19

20

ii) Non-concessional

714

781

874

839

947

a) IBRD

398

428

477

453

510

b) Others ##

316

353

397

386

437

B. Non-Government borrowing

286

314

347

345

403

i) Concessional

0

0

0

0

0

ii) Non-concessional

286

314

347

345

403

a) Public sector

161

179

197

194

228

IBRD

93

103

111

111

127

Others ##

68

76

86

83

102

b) Financial institutions

85

93

102

103

119

IBRD

21

22

25

27

30

Others ##

64

71

77

76

89

c) Private sector

40

42

48

48

56

IBRD

0

0

0

0

0

Others

40

42

48

48

56

II. Bilateral

1,178

1,325

1,439

1,362

1,555

A. Government borrowing

816

922

988

916

1,050

i) Concessional

816

922

988

916

1,050

ii) Non-concessional

0

0

0

0

0

B. Non-Government borrowing

362

403

451

446

505

i) Concessional

42

45

66

68

79

a) Public sector

17

18

36

41

49

b) Financial institutions

25

28

29

27

30

c) Private sector

0

0

0

0

0

ii) Non-concessional

320

358

385

378

426

a) Public sector

138

149

157

142

157

b) Financial institutions

38

40

42

39

43

c) Private sector

144

169

186

197

226

III. International Monetary Fund

285

304

325

315

340

IV. Trade Credit

837

930

1,026

971

1,077

a) Buyers' credit

737

818

906

859

950

b) Suppliers' credit

28

32

34

32

36

c) Export credit component  of bilateral credit

71

80

86

80

91

d) Export credit for defence purposes

0

0

0

0

0


Statement 1 : India’s External Debt Outstanding

(` billion)

Item

Jun-11 R

Sep- 11 R

Dec-11 R

Mar-12 PR

Jun-12 QE

1

2

3

4

5

V. COMMERCIAL BORROWING

4,145

4,726

5,297

5,383

5,903

a) Commercial bank loans

2,828

3,313

3,767

3,755

4,212

b) Securitized borrowings $ (including FCCBs) SEBI Debt Funds

1,286

1,386

1,502

1,602

1,672

c) Loans/securitized borrowings, etc. with  multilateral/bilateral guarantee and IFC(W)

31

27

28

26

20

VI. NRI Deposits  (above one-year maturity)

2,358

2,558

2,796

2,998

3,428

a) NR(E)RA

1,168

1,240

1,354

1,607

2,009

b) FCNR(B)

720

774

819

766

804

c) NRO Deposits

471

545

623

626

615

VII. Rupee Debt *

70

70

70

69

69

a) Defence

63

63

63

62

62

b) Civilian +

7

7

7

7

7

VIII. Short-term Debt

3,062

3,499

4,047

4,000

4,530

a) Trade Related credits

2,752

3,150

3,460

3,332

3,970

1) Above 180 days

1,652

1,885

2,118

2,005

2,546

2) Upto 180 days

1,100

1,266

1,342

1,327

1,424

b) FII investment in Government

264

302

473

481

466

T-Bills and other instruments

 

 

 

 

 

c) Investment in Treasury Bills  by foreign central banks and international Institutions etc.

2

3

3

3

3

d) External Debt Liabilities of :

44

43

110

184

91

1) Central Banks

6

6

6

9

10

2) Commercial Banks

38

37

104

175

81

IX. GROSS TOTAL

14,160

15,816

17,657

17,668

19,750

 MEMO ITEMS

 

 

 

 

 

A. Total Long-term Debt

11,098

12,317

13,610

13,670

15,221

As % of Total Debt

78.4

77.9

77.1

77.4

77.1

B. Short-term Debt

3,062

3,499

4,047

4,000

4,530

As % of Total Debt

21.6

22.1

22.9

22.6

22.9

C. Concessional Debt

2,153

2,346

2,560

2,440

2,695

As % of Total Debt

15.2

14.8

14.5

13.8

13.6

R: Revised. QE : Quick Estimates; PR : Partially Revised..
# Refers to Debt outstanding to Institutions like IFAD, OPEC & EEC(SAC)
## Refers to debt outstanding against loans from ADB
$ Includes net investment by 100 per cent FII debt funds
* Debt denominated in Rupees and payable in exports
+ Includes Rupee suppliers' credit from end-March 1990 onwards.
Notes : Multilateral loans do not include revaluation of IBRD pooled loans and exchange rate adjustment under IDA loans for Pre-1971 credits.


Statement 2 : India’s External Debt Outstanding

(US $ million)

Item

Jun-11 R

Sep- 11 R

Dec-11 R

Mar-12 PR

Jun-12 QE

1

2

3

4

5

I. Multilateral

49,375

49,122

49,909

50,453

49,780

A. Government borrowing

43,015

42,702

43,380

43,686

42,707

i) Concessional

27,177

26,743

26,977

27,221

26,163

a) IDA

26,815

26,378

26,617

26,853

25,809

b) Others #

362

365

360

368

354

ii) Non-concessional

15,838

15,959

16,402

16,465

16,544

a) IBRD

8,829

8,748

8,953

8,896

8,908

b) Others ##

7,009

7,211

7,449

7,568

7,635

B. Non-Government borrowing

6,360

6,420

6,530

6,767

7,073

i) Concessional

0

0

0

0

0

ii) Non-concessional

6,360

6,420

6,530

6,767

7,073

a) Public sector

3,568

3,658

3,706

3,808

3,991

IBRD

2,061

2,096

2,090

2,177

2,211

Others ##

1,507

1,562

1,616

1,631

1,780

b) Financial institutions

1,892

1,910

1,913

2,018

2,081

IBRD

459

452

466

531

525

Others ##

1,433

1,458

1,447

1,487

1,555

c) Private sector

899

852

910

941

1,001

IBRD

0

0

0

0

0

Others

899

852

910

941

1,001

II. Bilateral

26,168

27,077

27,038

26,714

27,248

A. Government borrowing

18,104

18,836

18,561

17,987

18,332

 i) Concessional

18,104

18,836

18,561

17,987

18,332

ii) Non-concessional

0

0

0

0

0

B. Non-Government borrowing

8,064

8,241

8,477

8,727

8,916

i) Concessional

930

934

1,227

1,339

1,377

a) Public sector

374

368

680

812

851

b) Financial institutions

555

566

547

527

526

c) Private sector

0

0

0

0

0

ii) Non-concessional

7,135

7,307

7,250

7,388

7,538

a) Public sector

3,073

3,042

2,965

2,780

2,772

b) Financial institutions

842

819

797

762

748

c) Private sector

3,220

3,446

3,488

3,846

4,018

III. International Monetary Fund

6,367

6,213

6,108

6,163

6,037

IV. Trade Credit

18,692

19,020

19,271

18,980

19,094

a) Buyers' credit

16,487

16,731

17,024

16,794

16,864

b) Suppliers' credit

630

651

634

623

636

c) Export credit component of bilateral credit

1,574

1,638

1,614

1,564

1,594

d) Export credit for defence purposes

0

0

0

0

0


Statement 2: India’s External Debt Outstanding

(US $ million)

Item

Jun-11PR

Sep- 11PR

Dec-11 P

Mar-12 P

Jun-12 QE

1

2

3

4

5

V. COMMERCIAL BORROWING

92,675

96,627

99,466

105,210

104,841

a) Commercial bank loans

63,233

67,735

70,728

73,402

74,796

b) Securitized borrowings $ (including
FCCBs) SEBI Debt Funds

28,759

28,335

28,218

31,306

29,696

c) Loans/securitized borrowings,  etc. with multilateral/bilateral guarantee and IFC(W)

683

557

520

503

349

d) Self Liquidating Loans

0

0

0

0

0

VI. NRI Deposits  (above one-year maturity)

52,898

52,304

52,497

58,608

60,874

a) NR(E)RA

26,190

25,344

25,430

31,408

35,681

b) FCNR(B)

16,142

15,824

15,376

14,968

14,272

c) NRO Deposits

10,565

11,136

11,691

12,232

10,921

VII. Rupee Debt *

1,568

1,422

1,307

1,354

1,219

a) Defence

1,411

1,278

1,175

1,216

1,101

b) Civilian +

157

144

132

138

118

VIII. Short-term Debt

68,473

71,530

75,995

78,179

80,450

a) Trade Related credits

61,531

64,402

64,978

65,130

70,508

1) Above 180 days

36,933

38,528

39,779

39,182

45,220

2) Upto 180 days

24,599

25,874

25,199

25,948

25,288

b) FII investment in Government T-Bills and other instruments

5,901

6,176

8,886

9,395

8,268

c) Investment in Treasury Bills  by foreign central banks and international Institutions etc.

48

66

58

64

56

d) External Debt Liabilities of :

993

886

2,073

3,590

1,619

1) Central Banks

133

123

118

170

174

2) Commercial Banks

860

763

1,955

3,420

1,445

IX. GROSS TOTAL

316,216

323,314

331,591

345,661

349,543

MEMO ITEMS

 

 

 

 

 

A. Total Long-term Debt

247,743

251,784

255,597

267,482

269,093

As % of Total Debt

78.3

77.9

77.1

77.4

77.0

B. Short-term Debt

68,473

71,530

75,995

78,179

80,450

As % of Total Debt

21.7

22.12

22.9

22.6

23.0

C. Concessional Debt

47,779

47,935

48,073

47,901

47,092

As % of Total Debt

15.1

14.8

14.5

13.8

13.5

R; Revised. P : Provisional; PR : Partially Revised.
# Refers to Debt outstanding to Institutions like IFAD, OPEC & EEC(SAC)
## Refers to debt outstanding against loans from ADB
$ Includes net investment by 100 per cent FII debt funds
* Debt denominated in Rupees and payable in exports
+ Includes Rupee suppliers' credit from end-March 1990 onwards.
Notes : Multilateral loans do not include revaluation of IBRD pooled loans and exchange rate adjustment under credits IDA loans for Pre-1971.


1 Prepared in the Division of International Trade and Finance, Department of Economic and Policy Research.


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