Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: January-March 2012 (Round 57)*
This article presents the survey findings of Industrial
Outlook Survey conducted for January-March 2012
quarter, the 57th round in the series. It gives an assessment
of business situation of companies in manufacturing sector,
for the quarter January-March 2012, and their
expectations for the ensuing quarter April-June 2012.
The survey results showed an improvement in demand
conditions in Indian manufacturing sector for January-
March 2012; however, a slight moderation is expected for
April-June 2012. In case of financial conditions,
marginal improvement was observed for both the quarters
under review.The Business Expectation Index, a measure
that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in
each study quarter, increased to 114.9 from 110.1 for the
assessment quarter but declined to 116.8 from 117.2 for
the expectation quarter; however, it remains well above
100, the threshold that separates contraction from
expansion.
Highlights
-
The demand conditions based on production,
order books, capacity utilisation (CU), imports and
exports showed some improvement in the
assessment quarter as compared with the previous
quarter, based on the Net Responses1. However,
the net responses declined marginally for the
expectation quarter. The survey indicated slight
improvement in employment outlook. Majority
of respondents reported maintaining an average
level of inventories (raw material and finished
goods) in both the assessment and expectation
quarters.
-
Assessment of overall financial situation improved
in the current quarter after a steady decline in the
last four quarters. Net response on availability of
finance followed a similar trend. The survey
showed that the pressure from the cost of external
finance and cost of raw material was persistent.
However, the percentage of respondents reporting
further increase in costs declined to some extent.
Similarly, net response on profit margin continued
to be negative, even with some improvement in
the percentage of respondents reporting increased
profit margin during the assessment quarter.
-
Industry-wise breakup shows that majority of
industry groups have positive sentiments in
demand conditions and financial conditions in
the assessment quarter. However, in ‘Cement’ and
‘Fertilisers’ industries’ optimism level for demand
conditions declined.
-
Size-wise breakup shows higher optimism in
demand conditions and financial conditions across
all size groups.
I. Introduction
The Reserve Bank of India has been conducting
the Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) on a quarterly basis
since 1998. The Survey gives insight into the perception
of the public and private limited companies engaged
in manufacturing activities about their own performance
and prospects. The assessment of business sentiments
for the current quarter and expectations for the ensuing
quarter are based on qualitative responses on 20 major
parameters covering overall business situation,
financial situation, demand indicators, price, profit
margins and employment situation.The survey
provides useful forward-looking inputs for policymakers,
analysts and business alike.
II. Data Coverage and Methodology
II.1 Sample Size
The sample covers a panel of about 2,000 public
and private limited companies, mostly with paid-up
capital above ` 5 million in the manufacturing sector.
The fieldwork for the survey was carried out by an
agency during mid-January to mid-March 2012. The
panel of respondents is kept uniform to the extent
possible with periodic updating in the case of addition
of new companies or exclusion of closed/merged
companies. The sample is chosen so as to get a good
representation of size and industry.
II.2 Response to the Survey
The survey elicited response from 1,234 (response
rate around 61%) manufacturing companies.
II.3 Survey Schedule2
The survey schedule consists of mainly qualitative
questions containing five blocks and the target
respondents are senior management personnel or
finance heads of the companies.
III. Survey Findings
III.1 Demand Condition
The survey collects perceptions of the Indian
manufacturers about prominent demand-related
parameters, namely, Production, Order Books, Capacity
Utilisation, Inventory, Exports and Imports.
III.1.1 Production
The net response favouring higher production in
assessment quarter improved for the second consecutive
quarter after declining in the previous three quarters.
However, it remained well below the peak observed in
Q3:2010-11.The net response declined for the
expectation quarter (Table 1, Chart 1).
III.1.2 Order Books
The net response on order books also showed a
similar trend (Table 2, Chart 2).
III.1.3 Pending Order
The pending order position was at normal or below
normal for most of the companies in assessment
quarter and is expected to remain there in the
expectation quarter (Table 3, Chart 3).
Table 1: Assessment & Expectations for Production |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
40.9 |
18.3 |
40.8 |
22.6 |
38.5 |
16.1 |
45.5 |
22.4 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
44.0 |
15.2 |
40.8 |
28.9 |
46.0 |
11.0 |
43.0 |
35.0 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
49.0 |
12.5 |
38.5 |
36.5 |
48.8 |
8.8 |
42.3 |
40.0 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
48.4 |
13.0 |
38.6 |
35.4 |
45.8 |
9.9 |
44.3 |
35.9 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
51.6 |
11.6 |
36.8 |
40.0 |
49.7 |
9.4 |
40.9 |
40.2 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
53.9 |
10.0 |
36.0 |
43.9 |
55.9 |
6.8 |
37.3 |
49.1 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
52.1 |
10.7 |
37.1 |
41.4 |
55.4 |
6.8 |
37.7 |
48.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
47.8 |
15.7 |
36.5 |
32.1 |
49.1 |
9.1 |
41.8 |
40.0 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
40.8 |
18.3 |
40.9 |
22.6 |
49.6 |
9.0 |
41.5 |
40.6 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
42.2 |
16.9 |
41.0 |
25.3 |
49.5 |
9.5 |
41.0 |
39.9 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
45.6 |
12.5 |
41.9 |
33.1 |
49.8 |
9.5 |
40.7 |
40.4 |
Apr-June 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
45.4 |
10.6 |
44.0 |
34.7 |
# Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable throughout the article.
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. |
Table 2: Assessment & Expectations for Order Books |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
38.2 |
17.7 |
44.1 |
20.5 |
35.5 |
18.7 |
45.8 |
16.8 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
39.5 |
13.6 |
46.8 |
25.9 |
43.5 |
11.2 |
45.3 |
32.3 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
43.5 |
11.6 |
44.9 |
31.9 |
44.8 |
9.1 |
46.1 |
35.8 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
41.8 |
10.5 |
47.7 |
31.3 |
42.3 |
8.9 |
48.8 |
33.4 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
45.4 |
9.3 |
45.3 |
36.1 |
44.4 |
8.1 |
47.5 |
36.3 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
46.9 |
9.1 |
44.0 |
37.9 |
49.8 |
5.1 |
45.1 |
44.8 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
44.8 |
10.1 |
45.2 |
34.7 |
49.6 |
5.6 |
44.8 |
44.0 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
42.5 |
14.4 |
43.0 |
28.1 |
45.9 |
7.5 |
46.6 |
38.4 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
37.9 |
17.6 |
44.5 |
20.3 |
45.4 |
9.4 |
45.2 |
35.9 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
36.9 |
18.5 |
44.6 |
18.4 |
43.5 |
10.1 |
46.4 |
33.4 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
38.9 |
14.1 |
47.0 |
24.8 |
42.3 |
11.0 |
46.7 |
31.3 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
39.3 |
9.8 |
50.9 |
29.5 |
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. |
III.1.4 Capacity Utilisation (CU)
The survey collects views of manufacturing
companies on changes in CU level (increase/decrease /
no change) for the main product, level of CU compared
with the average in the last four quarters (above normal/
below normal/normal); and assessment of production
capacity with regard to expected demand in the next
six months (more than adequate/less than adequate/
adequate).
The net response for higher CU increased from
10.8 per cent to 16.7 per cent in assessment quarter
but declined for expectation quarter consistent with
sentiments on production and order books (Table 4 ,
Chart 4).
Table 3: Assessment & Expectations for Pending Orders |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
21.1 |
3.7 |
75.2 |
17.4 |
22.9 |
3.8 |
73.4 |
19.1 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
17.1 |
5.6 |
77.3 |
11.6 |
15.2 |
4.2 |
80.6 |
11.0 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
15.5 |
6.7 |
77.8 |
8.8 |
12.2 |
6.5 |
81.3 |
5.7 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
14.3 |
7.4 |
78.3 |
6.9 |
12.9 |
6.4 |
80.7 |
6.5 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
12.0 |
6.9 |
81.1 |
5.1 |
11.4 |
7.3 |
81.3 |
4.2 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
11.6 |
7.6 |
80.8 |
3.9 |
8.8 |
7.3 |
83.9 |
1.5 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
12.5 |
6.9 |
80.6 |
5.5 |
9.8 |
8.1 |
82.1 |
1.7 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
13.3 |
6.7 |
80.0 |
6.5 |
10.4 |
6.6 |
83.0 |
3.9 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
18.0 |
4.7 |
77.3 |
13.3 |
11.8 |
7.2 |
81.0 |
4.5 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
17.5 |
5.0 |
77.5 |
12.6 |
13.6 |
6.0 |
80.4 |
7.6 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
15.9 |
5.4 |
78.7 |
10.5 |
13.7 |
6.5 |
79.8 |
7.3 |
Apr-June 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
13.3 |
4.6 |
82.1 |
8.8 |
Pending Orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. |
III.1.5 Inventory of Raw Materials & Finished Goods
Majority of the respondents (79 to 85 per cent)
have reported to have maintained the average level of inventory of raw materials and inventory of
finished goods in the assessment quarter as well as
expectation quarter (Table 5).The inventory position
is expected to remain broadly the same in the
expectation quarter.
Table 4: Assessment & Expectations forCapacity Utilisation |
(Percentage responses)# |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment
for Quarter |
Expectations
for Quarter |
Oct-
Dec 11 |
Jan-
Mar 12 |
Jan-
Mar 12 |
April-
June 12 |
Capacity Utilisation
(main product) |
Increase |
26.9 |
30.0 |
34.5 |
30.8 |
No Change |
56.9 |
56.7 |
55.3 |
58.4 |
Decrease |
16.1 |
13.3 |
10.2 |
10.9 |
Net Response |
10.8 |
16.7 |
24.3 |
19.9 |
Level of Capacity Utilisation (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) |
Above normal |
12.7 |
13.0 |
13.6 |
12.3 |
Normal |
69.0 |
71.3 |
73.8 |
76.6 |
Below Normal |
18.3 |
15.7 |
12.7 |
11.1 |
Net Response |
-5.6 |
-2.6 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
More than adequate |
11.3 |
11.4 |
12.1 |
11.3 |
Adequate |
80.2 |
81.4 |
80.5 |
82.0 |
Less than adequate |
8.5 |
7.2 |
7.4 |
6.7 |
Net Response |
2.8 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
‘Increase’ in Capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
 |
Table 5: Assessment & Expectations for level of Inventory
(Raw material and Finished goods) |
(Percentage responses) # |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment
for Quarter |
Expectations
for Quarter |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Apr-
Jun 12 |
Inventory of raw
material |
Below average |
7.1 |
7.1 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
Average |
78.5 |
78.9 |
82.7 |
84.5 |
Above average |
14.4 |
14.0 |
12.3 |
10.1 |
Net Response |
-7.3 |
-6.9 |
-7.3 |
-4.7 |
Inventory of Finished goods |
Below average |
6.3 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
Average |
78.6 |
79.7 |
82.8 |
85.8 |
Above average |
15.1 |
14.5 |
12.0 |
8.9 |
Net Response |
-8.9 |
-8.6 |
-6.8 |
-3.7 |
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw material and finished goods is optimistic. |
III.1.6 Exports and Imports
The survey signals a marginal improvement in the
sentiments for higher exports and imports for both the
assessment and expectation quarters (Tables 6 & 7 and
Charts 5 & 6).
Table 6: Assessment & Expectations for Exports |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
20.9 |
23.8 |
55.3 |
-2.9 |
20.6 |
20.5 |
59.0 |
0.1 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
27.3 |
18.1 |
54.6 |
9.2 |
27.0 |
14.5 |
58.5 |
12.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
28.9 |
16.2 |
54.9 |
12.7 |
31.2 |
11.0 |
57.8 |
20.2 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
29.1 |
13.7 |
57.2 |
15.3 |
30.0 |
11.5 |
58.5 |
18.5 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
31.8 |
11.8 |
56.5 |
20.0 |
30.8 |
10.1 |
59.1 |
20.7 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
34.4 |
11.4 |
54.2 |
23.1 |
34.4 |
8.3 |
57.3 |
26.1 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
32.1 |
13.2 |
54.7 |
18.9 |
34.4 |
8.1 |
57.5 |
26.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
31.8 |
13.6 |
54.6 |
18.2 |
33.4 |
9.4 |
57.1 |
24.0 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
28.7 |
15.7 |
55.6 |
13.1 |
35.1 |
9.2 |
55.7 |
25.8 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
26.8 |
15.3 |
57.9 |
11.5 |
32.7 |
10.6 |
56.8 |
22.1 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
27.8 |
13.6 |
58.6 |
14.2 |
29.0 |
10.4 |
60.6 |
18.6 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
30.1 |
9.4 |
60.5 |
20.7 |
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. |
Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for Imports |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
21.8 |
14.0 |
64.2 |
7.8 |
17.0 |
12.4 |
70.6 |
4.6 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
23.3 |
10.3 |
66.5 |
13.0 |
21.3 |
9.8 |
68.9 |
11.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
25.5 |
8.4 |
66.1 |
17.1 |
23.4 |
6.5 |
70.1 |
16.9 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
27.7 |
6.8 |
65.6 |
20.9 |
22.9 |
5.9 |
71.2 |
17.1 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
28.6 |
6.6 |
64.7 |
22.0 |
27.0 |
5.4 |
67.6 |
21.7 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
27.3 |
6.4 |
66.3 |
20.9 |
27.3 |
5.1 |
67.6 |
22.2 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
27.0 |
7.1 |
65.8 |
19.9 |
26.7 |
5.4 |
67.9 |
21.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
25.0 |
7.4 |
67.6 |
17.6 |
25.1 |
6.2 |
68.6 |
18.9 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
23.3 |
7.6 |
69.2 |
15.7 |
25.1 |
6.1 |
68.9 |
19.0 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
20.8 |
9.3 |
69.9 |
11.6 |
23.1 |
6.2 |
70.7 |
16.9 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
69.5 |
14.4 |
23.0 |
7.5 |
69.4 |
15.5 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
22.4 |
6.7 |
70.8 |
15.7 |
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. |
III.1.7 Employment Situation
Nearly three-fourth of the respondents reported ‘no change’ in their labour force in the assessment
quarter and the expectation quarter. However, the net
response favouring higher employment increased
marginally in both the quarters (Table 8, Chart 7).
III.2 Financial Conditions
The survey assesses sentiments about financial
conditions based on the parameters, viz., overall
financial situation, working capital finance requirement
(excluding internal sources of funds), availability of
finance (both internal and external sources), cost of
external finance, cost of raw material, selling price and
profit margin.
III.2.1 Overall Financial Situation
Overall financial situation showed an
improvement in assessment and expectation quarters
after successive declines in the last four quarters. The
net response for better financial situation in the
assessment quarter increased from 11.2 per cent to
18.5 per cent. The respondents also expected an
improvement in overall financial situation in the
ensuing quarter as the net response increased from
25.2 per cent to 27.7 per cent (Table 9, Chart 8).
III.2.2 Working Capital Finance Requirement and Availability of Finance
The sentiment for working capital finance
requirement in the assessment quarter improved with
net response increasing from 33.3 per cent to 34.9 per
cent; however, a moderation in net response is
indicated for the expectation quarter (Table10).
The survey showed that the level of optimism on ‘availability of finance’ improved in both the assessment
and expectation quarters after declines in the last four
quarters (Table 11, Chart 9).
Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
14.2 |
10.1 |
75.7 |
4.1 |
11.5 |
10.0 |
78.6 |
1.5 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
18.2 |
7.9 |
73.9 |
10.3 |
15.8 |
7.0 |
77.2 |
8.8 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
21.0 |
7.3 |
71.7 |
13.7 |
18.2 |
6.1 |
75.6 |
12.1 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
21.7 |
7.0 |
71.3 |
14.7 |
19.5 |
5.9 |
74.7 |
13.6 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
25.1 |
6.3 |
68.6 |
18.7 |
21.8 |
5.1 |
73.1 |
16.8 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
24.8 |
5.4 |
69.9 |
19.4 |
24.7 |
3.6 |
71.7 |
21.0 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
24.3 |
5.6 |
70.1 |
18.7 |
25.0 |
4.3 |
70.7 |
20.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
24.3 |
6.1 |
69.6 |
18.2 |
23.0 |
5.6 |
71.4 |
17.4 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
22.7 |
7.1 |
70.2 |
15.6 |
24.0 |
4.6 |
71.5 |
19.4 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
18.9 |
7.6 |
73.5 |
11.3 |
21.7 |
5.2 |
73.1 |
16.5 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
19.8 |
6.9 |
73.3 |
12.9 |
19.3 |
5.7 |
75.0 |
13.6 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
19.9 |
5.2 |
74.9 |
14.6 |
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. |
Table 9: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
34.3 |
12.5 |
53.2 |
21.8 |
32.8 |
12.8 |
54.4 |
20.0 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
38.8 |
9.3 |
51.8 |
29.5 |
40.5 |
7.0 |
52.5 |
33.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
42.3 |
6.5 |
51.3 |
35.8 |
44.3 |
5.0 |
50.6 |
39.3 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
39.1 |
6.9 |
54.0 |
32.2 |
41.6 |
5.3 |
53.1 |
36.3 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
38.7 |
8.1 |
53.2 |
30.6 |
39.7 |
5.6 |
54.8 |
34.1 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
42.8 |
5.7 |
51.5 |
37.1 |
44.9 |
5.3 |
49.7 |
39.6 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
35.7 |
8.6 |
55.8 |
27.1 |
45.5 |
4.4 |
50.1 |
41.1 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
34.5 |
10.4 |
55.0 |
24.1 |
38.6 |
5.2 |
56.1 |
33.4 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
27.8 |
16.0 |
56.2 |
11.7 |
37.4 |
6.8 |
55.7 |
30.6 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
28.1 |
16.9 |
55.0 |
11.2 |
35.5 |
9.2 |
55.3 |
26.3 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
30.4 |
11.9 |
57.8 |
18.5 |
35.3 |
10.2 |
54.5 |
25.2 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
35.7 |
8.1 |
56.2 |
27.7 |
‘Better’ Overall financial situation is optimistic. |
III.2.3 Cost of Finance
The perception about cost of finance remained
negative for both the quarters under review. However,
the percentage of respondents who experienced higher
cost of finance over the previous quarter declined from
53.4 per cent to 41.1 per cent in assessment quarter.
Correspondingly, share of respondents indicating ‘No
change’ increased (Table 12). A similar sentiment is
expressed for the expectation quarter.
Table 10: Assessment & Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
31.2 |
7.4 |
61.4 |
23.8 |
32.3 |
6.0 |
61.7 |
26.3 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
35.2 |
6.4 |
58.4 |
28.8 |
34.7 |
4.3 |
61.0 |
30.4 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
35.8 |
5.3 |
58.9 |
30.5 |
36.8 |
4.0 |
59.2 |
32.7 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
34.7 |
4.8 |
60.5 |
29.9 |
31.9 |
4.3 |
63.8 |
27.7 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
35.6 |
6.3 |
58.1 |
29.3 |
35.2 |
4.1 |
60.7 |
31.1 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
41.3 |
4.1 |
54.6 |
37.1 |
38.4 |
3.6 |
58.0 |
34.8 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
41.0 |
4.1 |
54.9 |
36.9 |
40.7 |
3.0 |
56.3 |
37.8 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
41.1 |
5.4 |
53.5 |
35.7 |
37.4 |
4.4 |
58.2 |
32.9 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
36.8 |
5.7 |
57.4 |
31.1 |
38.7 |
5.1 |
56.3 |
33.6 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
38.9 |
5.7 |
55.4 |
33.3 |
38.4 |
4.2 |
57.5 |
34.2 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
40.0 |
5.1 |
54.8 |
34.9 |
38.0 |
4.2 |
57.8 |
33.8 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
36.2 |
4.3 |
59.6 |
31.9 |
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. |
Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
28.0 |
8.8 |
63.2 |
19.2 |
27.0 |
10.4 |
62.6 |
16.6 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
30.3 |
7.2 |
62.5 |
23.0 |
31.7 |
5.6 |
62.7 |
26.1 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
32.1 |
6.4 |
61.5 |
25.7 |
33.7 |
4.5 |
61.8 |
29.2 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
32.3 |
5.9 |
61.8 |
26.4 |
31.2 |
4.4 |
64.4 |
26.8 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
32.6 |
6.0 |
61.4 |
26.6 |
32.9 |
4.4 |
62.7 |
28.5 |
Oct-Dec10 |
1,561 |
35.9 |
5.6 |
58.4 |
30.3 |
35.3 |
4.0 |
60.6 |
31.3 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
32.1 |
8.3 |
59.6 |
23.8 |
36.4 |
4.0 |
59.6 |
32.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
30.2 |
8.7 |
61.1 |
21.5 |
32.6 |
5.3 |
62.2 |
27.3 |
July-Sep11 |
1,528 |
24.0 |
12.0 |
64.0 |
12.1 |
30.0 |
5.8 |
64.2 |
24.2 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
24.1 |
13.7 |
62.2 |
10.4 |
28.7 |
8.5 |
62.7 |
20.2 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
26.1 |
10.3 |
63.5 |
15.8 |
28.2 |
9.1 |
62.7 |
19.0 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
29.9 |
7.0 |
63.1 |
22.9 |
‘Improvement’ in Availability of finance is optimism. |
III.2.4 Cost of Raw Material
Negative sentiment on cost of raw materials
persisted for both the assessment and expectation quarters (Table 13, Chart 10). However, the percentage
of respondents who experienced higher cost of raw
material declined marginally in the assessment quarter
and it is also expected to decline in the ensuing quarter.
III.2.5 Selling Price
Majority of the respondents (63-66 per cent) did
not report any change in selling prices during both the
quarters under review. Still, marginally higher
percentage of respondents assessed/anticipated an
increase in selling prices in the assessment/expectation
quarter (Table 14, Chart 11).
Table 12: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of External Finance |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1079 |
7.7 |
23.6 |
68.7 |
-15.9 |
6.8 |
25.1 |
68.1 |
-18.3 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1092 |
7.0 |
28.9 |
64.0 |
-21.9 |
6.1 |
26.8 |
67.1 |
-20.6 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1403 |
5.0 |
33.2 |
61.8 |
-28.3 |
5.7 |
29.0 |
65.3 |
-23.3 |
Oct-Dec10 |
1561 |
4.0 |
37.9 |
58.1 |
-33.9 |
3.8 |
32.1 |
64.2 |
-28.3 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1524 |
3.5 |
46.0 |
50.6 |
-42.5 |
3.7 |
35.0 |
61.3 |
-31.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1504 |
3.5 |
52.5 |
44.1 |
-49.0 |
3.9 |
38.9 |
57.1 |
-35.0 |
July-Sep 11 |
1528 |
3.5 |
53.7 |
42.9 |
-50.2 |
4.0 |
43.7 |
52.4 |
-39.7 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1450 |
2.9 |
53.4 |
43.7 |
-50.6 |
3.4 |
44.4 |
52.2 |
-41.0 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1234 |
3.8 |
41.1 |
55.1 |
-37.4 |
4.1 |
42.8 |
53.1 |
-38.8 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
9.9 |
32.6 |
57.6 |
-22.7 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of external finance is optimistic. |
Table 13: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of Raw Material |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
8.1 |
49.8 |
42.1 |
-41.7 |
8.7 |
35.8 |
55.5 |
-27.1 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
6.3 |
53.4 |
40.3 |
-47.1 |
5.0 |
43.4 |
51.6 |
-38.4 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
2.2 |
62.3 |
35.5 |
-60.2 |
3.6 |
47.9 |
48.5 |
-44.3 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
2.5 |
65.2 |
32.3 |
-62.7 |
2.2 |
50.8 |
47.0 |
-48.6 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
3.5 |
61.8 |
34.7 |
-58.3 |
2.7 |
52.0 |
45.2 |
-49.3 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
2.4 |
66.3 |
31.3 |
-63.9 |
3.3 |
52.6 |
44.1 |
-49.3 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
1.7 |
73.7 |
24.6 |
-71.9 |
2.3 |
55.9 |
41.8 |
-53.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
4.5 |
70.0 |
25.6 |
-65.5 |
2.5 |
59.5 |
38.0 |
-57.0 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
5.3 |
63.3 |
31.4 |
-58.1 |
4.8 |
56.6 |
38.6 |
-51.7 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
5.1 |
66.3 |
28.7 |
-61.2 |
3.7 |
53.4 |
42.9 |
-49.7 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
3.4 |
62.7 |
33.9 |
-59.4 |
4.0 |
54.1 |
41.9 |
-50.1 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
2.2 |
51.2 |
46.5 |
-49.0 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw material is optimistic. |
III.2.6 Profit Margin
The net response on profit margin continued to
be negative but with some improvement in the percentage of respondents reporting increased profit
margin during the assessment quarter (Table 15, Chart
12).
III.3 Overall Business Situation
III.3.1 Overall Business Situation
The net response on overall business situation
as perceived by the respondent companies, increased
for assessment and expectation quarters after a
continued decline in the last four quarters (Table 16,
Chart 13).
Table 14: Assessment & Expectations for Selling Price |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
19.4 |
19.2 |
61.4 |
0.2 |
17.2 |
17.2 |
65.6 |
0.0 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
18.6 |
15.9 |
65.5 |
2.6 |
19.2 |
13.2 |
67.6 |
6.0 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
24.6 |
12.2 |
63.2 |
12.4 |
20.7 |
10.9 |
68.4 |
9.8 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
29.3 |
12.0 |
58.6 |
17.3 |
22.4 |
9.1 |
68.5 |
13.3 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
28.0 |
14.2 |
57.8 |
13.8 |
24.4 |
9.2 |
66.3 |
15.2 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
30.2 |
10.0 |
59.8 |
20.2 |
25.7 |
8.7 |
65.5 |
17.0 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
35.7 |
9.2 |
55.1 |
26.5 |
26.7 |
8.1 |
65.2 |
18.6 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
35.0 |
13.4 |
51.6 |
21.5 |
30.6 |
7.0 |
62.4 |
23.7 |
July-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
27.3 |
16.6 |
56.1 |
10.7 |
29.1 |
10.7 |
60.2 |
18.3 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
24.6 |
15.7 |
59.7 |
8.9 |
26.8 |
10.8 |
62.4 |
16.0 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
25.1 |
11.6 |
63.3 |
13.5 |
25.0 |
10.3 |
64.7 |
14.7 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
26.3 |
7.3 |
66.4 |
19.0 |
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. |
III.3.2 Business Expectation Index (BEI)
The Business Expectation Index gives a single
snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter. This
index is computed as a weighted average of net
responses from all the industries on nine select
performance parameters where the weights are the
industry’s share in Gross Value Added (GVA). The
selected parameters are Overall Business Situation,
Production, Order Books, Inventory of Raw Materials,
Inventory of Finished Goods, Profit Margin,
Employment, Exports and Capacity Utilisation. The
methodology for compilation of the BEI is given in the
article Quarterly Industrial Outlook Surveys: Trends
since 2001 published in October 2009 Bulletin.
BEI increased from 110.1 to 114.9 for the
assessment quarter even though it declined marginally
from 117.2 to 116.8 for expectation quarter (Table 17 Chart 14). A value of BEI above 100 can be considered
as positive assessment/outlook on the business
sentiment.
Table 15: Assessment & Expectations for Profit Margin |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
16.9 |
32.0 |
51.1 |
-15.1 |
16.0 |
29.4 |
54.5 |
-13.4 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
18.1 |
28.0 |
54.0 |
-9.9 |
20.2 |
23.0 |
56.8 |
-2.8 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
21.7 |
24.6 |
53.9 |
-2.9 |
21.1 |
20.1 |
58.8 |
1.1 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
20.2 |
25.0 |
54.9 |
-4.8 |
22.1 |
18.9 |
59.0 |
3.2 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
21.3 |
23.9 |
54.8 |
-2.5 |
22.2 |
19.1 |
58.7 |
3.1 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
22.7 |
23.1 |
54.2 |
-0.4 |
25.2 |
16.1 |
58.7 |
9.2 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
20.8 |
25.1 |
54.1 |
-4.3 |
25.6 |
17.2 |
57.2 |
8.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
1,504 |
18.2 |
28.1 |
53.6 |
-9.9 |
22.2 |
18.4 |
59.4 |
3.8 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
15.2 |
32.3 |
52.5 |
-17.1 |
22.0 |
19.5 |
58.5 |
2.5 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
15.2 |
32.5 |
52.4 |
-17.3 |
20.3 |
21.9 |
57.8 |
-1.6 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
17.5 |
28.7 |
53.8 |
-11.3 |
20.1 |
23.1 |
56.8 |
-2.9 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
20.4 |
21.6 |
58.0 |
-1.2 |
‘Increase’ in Profit margin is optimistic. |
Table 16: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey
Quarter |
Total
response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Jul-Sep 09 |
1,180 |
39.3 |
13.0 |
47.7 |
26.3 |
38.8 |
14.6 |
46.7 |
24.2 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
1,256 |
46.0 |
10.1 |
43.9 |
36.0 |
47.2 |
7.4 |
45.4 |
39.8 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
1,079 |
50.5 |
7.4 |
42.1 |
43.1 |
50.4 |
5.5 |
44.2 |
44.9 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
1,092 |
47.8 |
7.1 |
45.0 |
40.7 |
47.3 |
6.1 |
46.6 |
41.2 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
1,403 |
46.7 |
8.0 |
45.3 |
38.7 |
47.6 |
6.2 |
46.2 |
41.5 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
1,561 |
51.4 |
5.5 |
43.1 |
45.9 |
52.5 |
5.1 |
42.4 |
47.4 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
1,524 |
46.0 |
7.4 |
46.6 |
38.6 |
54.2 |
4.1 |
41.8 |
50.1 |
Apr-Jun11 |
1,504 |
42.8 |
10.1 |
47.1 |
32.6 |
47.0 |
5.6 |
47.4 |
41.4 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
1,528 |
34.1 |
15.4 |
50.5 |
18.7 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
46.6 |
39.8 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
1,450 |
35.2 |
17.5 |
47.3 |
17.7 |
43.1 |
8.0 |
48.9 |
35.2 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
1,234 |
37.8 |
11.3 |
50.9 |
26.5 |
43.6 |
10.0 |
46.5 |
33.6 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
|
|
43.0 |
8.1 |
49.0 |
34.9 |
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. |
III.3.3 Industry-wise and Size-wise Analysis
Most of the industry groups reported improved
demand conditions and financial conditions. However,
in ‘Cement’ & ‘Fertilisers’ industries, optimism level
for demand declined as compared with the previous
quarter (Table 18).
Size-wise analysis shows that there was higher
optimism level for demand conditions and financial
conditions across all the size groups (Table 19).
 |
Table 17: Business Expectation Index |
Quarter |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Index |
Change
over
previous
quarter |
Change
over
previous
year |
Index |
Change
over
previous
quarter |
Change
over
previous
year |
Jan-Mar 04 |
121.4 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
122.2 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
Apr-Jun 04 |
118.4 |
-3.0 |
8.6 |
121.5 |
-0.7 |
3.7 |
Jul-Sep 04 |
116.9 |
-1.5 |
2.6 |
120.0 |
-1.5 |
2.9 |
Oct-Dec 04 |
122.0 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
121.5 |
1.5 |
-0.6 |
Jan-Mar 05 |
122.5 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
123.2 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
Apr-Jun 05 |
117.5 |
-5.0 |
-0.9 |
120.7 |
-2.5 |
-0.8 |
Jul-Sep 05 |
114.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.0 |
119.6 |
-1.1 |
-0.4 |
Oct-Dec 05 |
124.3 |
9.4 |
2.3 |
122.7 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
Jan-Mar 06 |
120.7 |
-3.6 |
-1.8 |
125.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
Apr-Jun 06 |
121.8 |
1.1 |
4.3 |
120.5 |
-5.2 |
-0.2 |
Jul-Sep 06 |
120.7 |
-1.1 |
5.8 |
126.5 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
Oct-Dec 06 |
123.9 |
3.2 |
-0.4 |
125.3 |
-1.2 |
2.6 |
Jan-Mar 07 |
127.7 |
3.8 |
7.0 |
126.5 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
Apr-Jun 07 |
115.8 |
-11.9 |
-6.0 |
127.5 |
1.0 |
7.0 |
Jul-Sep 07 |
118.9 |
3.1 |
-1.8 |
121.1 |
-6.4 |
-5.4 |
Oct-Dec 07 |
115.9 |
-3.0 |
-8.0 |
124.4 |
3.3 |
-0.9 |
Jan-Mar 08 |
122.8 |
6.9 |
-4.9 |
118.6 |
-5.8 |
-7.9 |
Apr-Jun 08 |
116.2 |
-6.6 |
0.4 |
123.2 |
4.6 |
-4.3 |
Jul-Sep 08 |
113.4 |
-2.8 |
-5.5 |
122.1 |
-1.1 |
1.0 |
Oct-Dec 08 |
104.1 |
-9.3 |
-11.8 |
118.9 |
-3.2 |
-5.5 |
Jan-Mar 09 |
82.6 |
-21.5 |
-40.2 |
111.9 |
-7.0 |
-6.7 |
Apr-Jun 09 |
99.4 |
16.8 |
-16.8 |
96.4 |
-15.5 |
-26.8 |
Jul-Sep 09 |
107.2 |
7.8 |
-6.2 |
109.9 |
13.5 |
-12.2 |
Oct-Dec 09 |
112.8 |
5.6 |
8.7 |
116.4 |
6.5 |
-2.5 |
Jan-Mar 10 |
118.5 |
5.7 |
35.9 |
120.6 |
4.2 |
8.7 |
Apr-Jun 10 |
115.9 |
-2.6 |
16.5 |
119.8 |
-0.8 |
23.4 |
Jul-Sep 10 |
119.0 |
3.1 |
11.8 |
118.8 |
-1.0 |
8.9 |
Oct-Dec 10 |
122.8 |
3.8 |
10.0 |
126.5 |
7.7 |
10.1 |
Jan-Mar 11 |
122.0 |
-0.8 |
3.5 |
125.9 |
-0.6 |
5.3 |
Apr-Jun 11 |
116.3 |
-5.7 |
0.4 |
121.9 |
-4.0 |
2.1 |
Jul-Sep 11 |
109.4 |
-6.9 |
-9.7 |
121.5 |
-0.4 |
2.7 |
Oct-Dec 11 |
110.1 |
0.8 |
-12.7 |
118.8 |
-2.7 |
-7.7 |
Jan-Mar 12 |
114.9 |
4.8 |
-7.1 |
117.2 |
-1.6 |
-8.7 |
Apr-Jun 12 |
|
|
|
116.8 |
-0.4 |
-5.1 |
 |
III.3.4 Constraints for Attaining the Normal Production Level
About 50 per cent of companies reported
Production Constraints for attaining the normal production level during the quarter January-March
2012. Major constraints reported are lack of domestic
demand, shortage of power, shortage of working capital
finance and shortage of raw material. Industry-wise
break-up reveals that companies in four industry groups, viz, ‘Textiles’, ‘Transport equipments’, ‘Basic
metals and metal products’ and ‘Food products’ felt more production constraints when compared with
other industries. (Table 20) .
Table 18: Assessment for Important Business Parameters according to Industries |
(Net response in per cent) |
Industry Name |
Production |
Order Books |
Availability of Finance |
Cost of Raw
Materials |
Cost of
Finance |
Profit
Margin |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Food products |
42.6 |
41.2 |
33.0 |
31.2 |
13.1 |
22.4 |
-56.9 |
-50.5 |
-46.2 |
-25.0 |
-10.1 |
-3.0 |
Textiles |
-1.6 |
7.5 |
-17.1 |
0.0 |
-6.4 |
-3.1 |
-35.8 |
-44.7 |
-53.8 |
-42.1 |
-40.1 |
-26.7 |
Basic Metals & Metal products |
18.1 |
29.4 |
13.5 |
21.7 |
9.3 |
17.1 |
-65.0 |
-61.1 |
-51.7 |
-39.0 |
-17.1 |
-5.6 |
Electrical machinery |
40.6 |
43.2 |
38.2 |
37.5 |
15.6 |
22.5 |
-66.7 |
-62.5 |
-46.3 |
-34.1 |
-11.6 |
-17.8 |
Other Machinery (Non-electrical machinery) & Apparatus |
22.0 |
36.2 |
19.5 |
22.6 |
10.2 |
17.7 |
-67.8 |
-66.0 |
-44.2 |
-39.1 |
-13.0 |
-18.9 |
Transport Equipment |
30.9 |
49.4 |
23.3 |
37.5 |
15.8 |
16.5 |
-63.2 |
-60.8 |
-53.8 |
-43.8 |
-15.8 |
-6.3 |
Fertilisers |
43.8 |
24.0 |
28.0 |
16.7 |
37.5 |
19.2 |
-71.9 |
-32.0 |
-50.0 |
-8.0 |
6.3 |
0.0 |
Pharmaceuticals & Medicines |
38.4 |
43.4 |
28.4 |
33.3 |
9.2 |
10.8 |
-68.7 |
-64.6 |
-59.8 |
-39.7 |
-10.1 |
-10.8 |
Basic Chemicals |
25.0 |
35.8 |
25.0 |
30.9 |
20.0 |
15.5 |
-60.0 |
-62.9 |
-47.5 |
-37.2 |
-15.3 |
-11.6 |
Rubber & Plastic products |
25.3 |
31.4 |
19.2 |
22.1 |
14.1 |
17.1 |
-50.0 |
-69.6 |
-56.8 |
-41.2 |
-24.1 |
-12.7 |
Paper & Paper products |
22.0 |
44.4 |
5.6 |
40.6 |
4.9 |
25.0 |
-78.0 |
-52.8 |
-50.0 |
-55.6 |
-34.1 |
0.0 |
Cement |
45.5 |
37.5 |
41.4 |
35.0 |
2.9 |
29.2 |
-88.6 |
-62.5 |
-57.1 |
-25.0 |
-8.6 |
12.5 |
Wood & wood products |
12.5 |
46.7 |
18.8 |
21.4 |
10.5 |
25.0 |
-72.2 |
-68.8 |
-52.9 |
-37.5 |
-10.5 |
-12.5 |
Diversified companies |
45.0 |
57.9 |
50.0 |
47.1 |
45.0 |
15.0 |
-65.0 |
-75.0 |
-44.4 |
-47.4 |
10.5 |
0.0 |
Other industries |
26.2 |
27.5 |
21.2 |
26.8 |
9.2 |
23.5 |
-66.7 |
-64.4 |
-49.2 |
-31.7 |
-13.8 |
-5.8 |
All Industries |
25.3 |
33.1 |
18.4 |
24.8 |
10.4 |
15.8 |
-61.2 |
-59.4 |
-50.6 |
-37.4 |
-17.3 |
-11.3 |
Table 19: Assessment for Important Business Parameters according to Size |
(Net response in per cent) |
Size |
Production |
Order Books |
Availability of
Finance |
Cost of raw
Materials |
Cost of
Finance |
Profit
Margin |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
Oct-
Dec
11 |
Jan-
Mar
12 |
PUC-Wise |
Small |
19.1 |
23.9 |
14.2 |
15.0 |
10.9 |
5.8 |
-65.9 |
-68.6 |
-36.9 |
-29.8 |
-18.2 |
-21.1 |
Medium |
24.9 |
33.8 |
17.6 |
25.5 |
10.6 |
18.9 |
-60.8 |
-57.3 |
-51.8 |
-39.0 |
-18.4 |
-10.0 |
Big |
41.9 |
47.9 |
38.3 |
43.9 |
7.0 |
1.4 |
-57.6 |
-63.0 |
-57.0 |
-35.3 |
0.0 |
-2.7 |
Annual Prod.-Wise |
Small |
19.4 |
24.3 |
14.9 |
16.8 |
8.7 |
13.0 |
-63.3 |
-65.2 |
-40.7 |
-30.8 |
-21.8 |
-18.3 |
Medium |
27.8 |
44.1 |
20.5 |
32.9 |
14.5 |
13.6 |
-59.1 |
-51.4 |
-55.0 |
-39.1 |
14.8 |
0.0 |
Big |
35.6 |
44.1 |
22.6 |
32.9 |
2.1 |
13.6 |
-61.6 |
-51.4 |
-66.0 |
-39.1 |
-11.2 |
0.0 |
Smaller companies (annual production less than `1 billion /PUC less than `10 million).
Medium companies (annual production between `1 billion to `10 billion /PUC between `10 million `1 billion)
Big companies (annual production above `10 billion / PUC above `1 billion) |
Table 20: Constraints for Attaining the Normal Production Level – Industry-wise |
| |
Production Constraint |
No |
Yes |
Count |
per cent |
Count |
per cent |
Food products |
46 |
46.5 |
53 |
53.5 |
Textiles |
54 |
33.3 |
108 |
66.7 |
Basic Metals & Metal products |
83 |
45.6 |
99 |
54.4 |
Electrical machinery |
44 |
48.4 |
47 |
51.6 |
Other Machinery & Apparatus |
73 |
51.0 |
70 |
49.0 |
Transport Equipment |
35 |
43.8 |
45 |
56.3 |
Fertilisers |
15 |
57.7 |
11 |
42.3 |
Pharmaceutical & Medicines |
56 |
67.5 |
27 |
32.5 |
Basic Chemicals |
58 |
59.8 |
39 |
40.2 |
Rubber & Plastic products |
35 |
49.3 |
36 |
50.7 |
Paper & Paper products |
18 |
50.0 |
18 |
50.0 |
Cement |
14 |
58.3 |
10 |
41.7 |
Wood & wood products |
11 |
68.8 |
5 |
31.3 |
Diversified companies |
16 |
80.0 |
4 |
20.0 |
Other industries |
60 |
57.7 |
53 |
53.5 |
All Industries |
618 |
50.1 |
616 |
49.9 |
Statement: Net Responses on assessment and expectations – year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes |
(Per cent) |
Sr.
No. |
Parameter |
Optimism
Criteria |
ASSESSMENTS |
EXPECTATIONS |
Net Response (%) |
Differences in
net response of
current quarter
of current
survey over
current quarter
of |
Net
Response (%) |
Differences in
net response of
next quarter of current survey
over next quarter
of |
Current quarter of a year ago survey (53) |
Current quarter of
pre vious survey (56) |
Current quarter of current survey (57) |
A year ago
survey |
Per vious quarter
survey |
Next quarter of a year
ago survey (53) |
Next quarter of
pre vious survey (56) |
Next quarter of
current survey (57) |
A year ago survey |
Per vious quarter
survey |
Jan-
Mar.
11 |
Oct-
Dec.
11 |
Jan-
Mar.
12 |
(5)-(3) |
(5)-(4) |
Apr.-
Jun.-
11 |
Jan.-
Mar.
12 |
Apr.-
Jun.12 |
(10)- (8) |
(10)- (9) |
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) |
(7) |
(8) |
(9) |
(10) |
(11) |
(12) |
1 |
Overall business situation |
Better |
38.6 |
17.7 |
26.5 |
-12.1 |
8.8 |
41.4 |
33.6 |
34.9 |
-6.5 |
1.3 |
2 |
Financial situation |
Better |
27.1 |
11.2 |
18.5 |
-8.6 |
7.3 |
33.4 |
25.2 |
27.7 |
-5.7 |
2.5 |
3 |
Working capital finance requirement |
Increase |
36.9 |
33.3 |
34.9 |
-2.0 |
1.6 |
32.9 |
33.8 |
31.9 |
-1.0 |
-1.9 |
4 |
Availability of
finance |
Improve |
23.8 |
10.4 |
15.8 |
-8.0 |
5.4 |
27.3 |
19.0 |
22.9 |
-4.4 |
3.9 |
5 |
Cost of finance |
Decrease |
-42.5 |
-50.6 |
-37.4 |
5.1 |
13.2 |
-35.0 |
-38.8 |
-22.7 |
12.3 |
16.1 |
6 |
Production |
Increase |
41.4 |
25.3 |
33.1 |
-8.3 |
7.8 |
40.0 |
40.4 |
34.7 |
-5.3 |
-5.7 |
7 |
Order books |
Increase |
34.7 |
18.4 |
24.8 |
-9.9 |
6.4 |
38.4 |
31.3 |
29.5 |
-8.9 |
-1.8 |
8 |
Pending Orders, if applicable |
Below normal |
5.5 |
12.6 |
10.5 |
5.0 |
-2.1 |
3.9 |
7.3 |
8.8 |
4.9 |
1.5 |
9 |
Cost of raw material |
Decrease |
-71.9 |
-61.2 |
-59.4 |
12.5 |
1.8 |
-57.0 |
-50.1 |
-49.0 |
8.0 |
1.1 |
10 |
Inventory of raw material |
Below average |
-7.8 |
-7.3 |
-6.9 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
-3.3 |
-7.3 |
-4.7 |
-1.4 |
2.6 |
11 |
Inventory of finished goods |
Below average |
-6.5 |
-8.9 |
-8.6 |
-2.1 |
0.3 |
-2.9 |
-6.8 |
-3.7 |
-0.8 |
3.1 |
12 |
Capacity utilisation (Main Product) |
Increase |
27.4 |
10.8 |
16.7 |
-10.7 |
5.9 |
24.0 |
24.3 |
19.9 |
-4.1 |
-4.4 |
13 |
Level of capacity utilisation (Compared to the average in preceding four quarters) |
Above normal |
4.9 |
-5.6 |
-2.6 |
-7.5 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
-3.2 |
0.3 |
14 |
Assessment of the production capacity (With regard to expected demand in next six months) |
More than adequate |
4.4 |
2.8 |
4.3 |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
15 |
Employment in the company |
Increase |
18.7 |
11.3 |
12.9 |
-5.8 |
1.6 |
17.4 |
13.6 |
14.6 |
-2.8 |
1.0 |
16 |
Exports, if applicable |
Increase |
18.9 |
11.5 |
14.2 |
-4.7 |
2.7 |
24.0 |
18.6 |
20.7 |
-3.3 |
2.1 |
17 |
Imports, if any |
Increase |
19.9 |
11.6 |
14.4 |
-5.5 |
2.8 |
18.9 |
15.5 |
15.7 |
-3.2 |
0.2 |
18 |
Selling prices are expected to |
Increase |
26.5 |
8.9 |
13.5 |
-13.0 |
4.6 |
23.7 |
14.7 |
19.0 |
-4.7 |
4.3 |
19 |
If increase expected in selling prices |
Increase at
lower rate |
12.1 |
19.9 |
20.7 |
8.6 |
0.8 |
9.6 |
15.8 |
15.2 |
5.6 |
-0.6 |
20 |
Profit margin |
Increase |
-4.3 |
-17.3 |
-11.3 |
-7.0 |
6.0 |
3.8 |
-2.9 |
-1.2 |
-5.0 |
1.7 |
|