1. Monetary policy was strongly anti-inflationary until October 2011.Subsequently,decelerating growth and declining inflation
momentum prompted monetary policy to move
to a neutral stance since December 2011. Some
easing in liquidity was effected through a total
of 125 basis points reduction in the Cash
Reserve Ratio (CRR) during January-March
2012. Going forward, the policy stance will need
to ensure that inflationary tendencies remain
under control, even as growth adjusts to its trend.
2. Growth in Q3 of 2011-12 dropped to 6.1
per cent as investment and external demand
contracted and private consumption decelerated.
Growth is likely to improve moderately in 2012-13, supported mainly by a pick up in industry
on the back of consumption demand and some
improvement in investment.However, the depleted investment pipeline and depressed new
investment may keep the pace of recovery slow.
3. Inflation has fallen in Q4 of 2011-12, but
is likely to remain sticky at about current levels
during 2012-13. Price pressures persist with
considerable suppressed inflation in oil,
electricity, coal and fertilisers,the incomplete
pass-through of rupee depreciation, slow supply responses and increase in indirect taxes as well
as demand effects of large government transfers.
Global Economic Conditions
Global growth likely to remain moderate
in 2012.
4. The recovery in Advanced Economies (AEs) that seemed to be shaping well at the start of 2011 lost steam towards the fag-end of the
year and is clouding the prospects for global
growth during 2012. It lost momentum as the protracted debt crisis in the euro area and fiscal fragilities dampened business and consumer confidence.However,contrary to fears that came to the fore time and again during 2011-12,
global growth did not stall.
5. Going into 2012, the global economy appears to be in a continuing phase of multi-speed growth.Most recent assessments indicate that the euro area is entering into a mild
recession, while growth and employment conditions in the US are improving. Growth in
emerging markets, especially China and India,
is slowing beyond what was anticipated but these two economies are still likely to provide
some support for global recovery. In sum, in
spite of a dip in growth, the world economy is
unlikely to lapse into another recession.
Financial market stress eases
6. Global financial market stress eased
significantly during Q1 of 2012 after the ECB
made a large liquidity injection.However,
stability and structural improvements in the euro area still remain the unfinished agenda.The recovery and financial stability can still be
derailed by global inflation engendered by liquidity infusion and high crude oil prices.
Indian Economy: Developments and Outlook
Output
Growth may have bottomed out in Q3 of 2011-12, but recovery ahead likely to be slow
7. Early indicators suggest that growth may have bottomed out in Q3 of 2011-12 but recovery may be slow during 2012-13. Lower
global demand, domestic policy uncertainties and the cumulative impact of monetary tightening lowered the growth rate to below seven per cent over the last two quarters.
Industrial growth remains subdued due to
supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in the mining sector, and moderation in investment demand. With measures being taken to remove
supply-side bottlenecks, progress on fiscal consolidation could create conditions for a more favourable growth-inflation dynamic.
Aggregate demand
Investment downturn extends, speeding of public investment could crowd in private investment
8. The growth slowdown has been driven
by a sharp fall in investment, some moderation
in private consumption and fall in net external
demand. The drag from investment is likely to
continue in the near term. Corporate investment intentions continued to drop during Q3 of 2011-12. Consultations with industry and banks suggest that new project investment continue to
be sluggish. However, if increased capital outlays in the latest budget are speedily translated into government capital expenditure,it could crowd in private investment.
External sector
BoP risks accentuate
9. The balance of payments (BoP) came under significant stress during Q3 of 2011-12
as the current account deficit (CAD) widened
substantially and capital inflows declined.This
resulted in a drawing down of foreign exchange reserves.The wider CAD, increase in external
debt,weakening net international investment position (NIIP) and deteriorating vulnerability
indicators underscore the need for more prudent external sector management and demand
management policies to limit the absorption
impact that is keeping import demand high.While capital inflows have revived somewhat in
2012, BoP risks remain due to high oil prices
and uncertainties in the global economy.
Monetary and Liquidity Conditions
Reserve Bank responds to tight liquidity conditions by injecting primary liquidity
10. With falling inflation and growth, the Reserve Bank shifted gears to a more neutral
policy, preparing to ease ahead if inflation
trends down further. Amidst increasing structural and frictional liquidity deficits during Q4 of 2011-12, the Reserve Bank injected large amounts of primary liquidity through Open
Market Operations (OMOs) and Cash Reserve
Ratio (CRR). Liquidity conditions have eased
substantially in April 2012 with large government spending. Going forward, barring shocks to
autonomous drivers, liquidity conditions may
stay comfortable in Q1 of 2012-13.
Financial Markets
Financial market stress ease but risks remain
11. With reduced stress in global financial
markets and revival of capital inflows, financial conditions improved in India. However, tight liquidity conditions saw money market rates firm up.G-sec yields also firmed up post-budget in response to the large market borrowing
programme.Going forward, there are risks of
disruptive movements from euro area and
financialisation of commodities.
Price Situation
Inflation path for 2012-13 likely to be sticky
12. Inflation has moderated in recent months to under 7 per cent, in line with the Reserve
Bank’s projections. However, the path of inflation in 2012-13 could remain sticky with
high oil prices, large suppressed inflation,
exchange rate passthrough, impact of tax hikes,
wage pressure and structural impediments to
supply response. The pricing power of companies has waned with moderation in demand as also
lower non-oil commodity prices. This should help keep inflationary pressures under control
in 2012-13.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Macroeconomic challenges warrant careful calibration of monetary policy
13. Various surveys suggest that growth is likely to be only slightly higher in 2012-13 than
in 2011-12.Alongside, inflation is likely to
remain within a relatively narrow range during
the year with probability of further significant
moderation being small. The output gap is unlikely to be closed. Recent experience suggest that the non-inflationary growth rate for India
may have somewhat declined from the pre-
Lehman crisis period. Monetary policy would,
therefore, need to support growth without risking external balance or inflation by excessively fuelling demand. Fiscal policy has
a key role to speed up public investment to
crowd in private investment while staying on
the path of fiscal consolidation. As such,
monetary actions will need to be calibrated to
evolving growth-inflation dynamics and the fiscal response.
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