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Date : Oct 08, 2021
Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators– Results of the 72nd Round

The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. The responses for the 72nd round of the survey were received during September 13-30, 2021, wherein thirty-four panellists participated. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts (Annex 1-7), along with quarterly paths for key variables.

Highlights:

1. Output

  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the current year has been revised up by 20 basis points (bps) from the last survey round to 9.4 per cent; it is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2022-23 (Table 1).

  • SPF panellists have placed GDP growth forecasts in the wide range of 7.4-11.4 per cent for 2021-22 and 5.5-9.0 per cent for 2022-23 (Annexes 1 and 2).

  • Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth lying between 9.0-9.4 per cent in 2021-22 (Chart 1). For 2022-23, highest probability has been assigned to the range 6.5-6.9 per cent (Chart 2).

Chart 1

Chart 2

Note: Tails of the distributions are not presented in Charts 1 and 2. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6.

  • Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth projections have been retained at 9.4 per cent during 2021-22 and 7.2 per cent in the next year.

  • Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth projections have been revised up by 140 bps to 13.2 per cent for 2021-22 and by 40 bps to 7.5 per cent for 2022-23.

  • Real gross value added (GVA) growth projection has been retained at 8.6 per cent in 2021-22, supported by pick-up in industrial and services activities; the projection for the next year has been revised up to 6.7 per cent in the latest SPF round.
Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components
(in per cent)
  2021-22 2022-23
Real GDP 9.4
(+0.2)
6.8
(+0.3)
a. Real PFCE 9.4
(0.0)
7.2
(0.0)
b. Real GFCF 13.2
(+1.4)
7.5
(+0.4)
Nominal PFCE 15.5
(+0.9)
11.2
(-0.4)
Real GVA 8.6
(0.0)
6.7
(+0.4)
a. Agriculture and Allied Activities 3.3
(+0.3)
3.0
(0.0)
b. Industry 11.5
(+1.0)
5.8
(-0.1)
c. Services 8.8
(-0.2)
7.8
(+0.3)
Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national disposable income]
29.5
(+0.4)
29.8
(+0.2)
Gross Capital Formation Rate
[per cent of GDP at current market prices]
30.0
(+0.5)
30.7
(+0.5)
Note: The figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round (applicable for all Tables).
  • Real GDP is expected to grow (Y-o-Y) by 7.7 per cent in Q2:2021-22 driven by pick-up in both PFCE and GFCF, and then gradually moderate to 5.9 per cent by Q4:2021-22 (Table 2). Quarterly GDP growth forecast path up to Q1:2022-23 has been revised up from the previous round, except for Q2:2021-22.

Table 2: Median Growth Forecast of Quarterly GDP, GVA and components
(in per cent)
  Q2:2021-22 Q3:2021-22 Q4:2021-22 Q1:2022-23 Q2:2022-23
Real GDP 7.7
(-0.3)
6.1
(+0.3)
5.9
(+0.6)
13.1
(+5.9)
6.1
a. Real PFCE 10.6
(0.0)
6.2
(+0.7)
6.0
(+1.0)
12.0
(+3.7)
6.9
b. Real GFCF 8.9
(+0.8)
5.2
(+0.2)
5.0
(0.0)
10.0
(+3.7)
7.4
Real GVA 7.4
(-0.3)
5.8
(+0.9)
4.8
(+0.3)
9.8
(+3.9)
5.8

2. Inflation

  • Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation path has been revised down; it is expected at 5.2 per cent in Q2:2021-22 and moderate to 4.7 per cent in Q3:2021-22, before increasing to 5.7 per cent in Q4:2021-22 (Table 3).

  • CPI inflation, excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light, is expected to remain in the narrow range of 5.9-6.1 per cent during the remaining quarters of 2021-22.
Table 3: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation
(in per cent)
  Q2:2021-22 Q3:2021-22 Q4:2021-22 Q1:2022-23 Q2:2022-23
CPI Combined (General) 5.2
(-0.5)
4.7
(-0.2)
5.7
(-0.1)
5.0
(-0.1)
4.9
CPI Combined excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light 6.0
(+0.2)
6.1
(0.0)
5.9
(+0.1)
5.5
(+0.1)
5.2
WPI All Commodities 11.1
(+0.4)
9.8
(+0.6)
7.1
(+0.6)
4.2
(+0.5)
3.8
WPI Non-food Manufactured Products 11.0
(+1.1)
9.7
(+1.0)
6.7
(+1.1)
3.5
(0.0)
2.7
  • Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to CPI inflation lying in the range of 5.0-5.4 per cent in Q2:2021-22; 4.5-4.9 per cent in Q3:2021-22; 5.5-5.9 per cent in Q4:2021-22; and 4.5-5.4 per cent in Q1:2022-23 (Chart 3).
Chart 3

Note: Tails of the distributions are not presented in the Chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7.

3. External Sector

  • Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 30.0 per cent and 36.1 per cent, respectively, during 2021-22 (Table 4).

  • Current account deficit is expected at 0.7 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) in 2021-22 and at 1.1 per cent in 2022-23.

  • The Indian rupee is likely to remain stable within the narrow range of ₹74.50–₹74.70 per US dollar till Q2:2022-23 (Annex 3).

Table 4: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables
  2021-22 2022-23
Merchandise Exports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent)
30.0
(+5.6)
8.0
(0.0)
Merchandise Imports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent)
36.1
(+5.2)
9.1
(-0.6)
Current Account Balance
(per cent of GDP at current market prices)
-0.7
(+0.1)
-1.1
(+0.1)

The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF):

Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited), Anagha Deodhar (ICICI Securities Pvt. Ltd.), Ashish Kumar (Adani Group), Charu Chanana (Continuum Economics), CRISIL Ltd, Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Limited), Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings & Research), Dhiraj Nim (ANZ), Gaura Sen Gupta (IDFC FIRST Bank), Gaurav Kapur (IndusInd Bank Limited), Indranil Pan (YES Bank), Manasi Swamy (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd.), Nikhil Gupta (Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd), QuantEco Research, Rahul Bajoria (Barclays Bank PLC), Shailesh Kejariwal (B&K Securities India Pvt ltd), Siddharth Kothari (Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd), TAC Economics, Tirthankar Patnaik (National Stock Exchange) and Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank).

The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen other SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous.


Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2021-22
  Key Macroeconomic Indicators Annual Forecasts for 2021-22
Mean Median Max Min 1st quartile 3rd quartile
1 GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 9.3 9.4 11.4 7.4 8.9 9.6
a Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 9.6 9.4 13.2 5.7 9.0 10.4
b Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 13.0 13.2 24.6 4.0 11.4 14.1
2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 15.3 15.5 18.0 11.1 14.0 16.9
3 Gross Capital Formation Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) 29.7 30.0 33.0 20.0 29.7 30.6
4 GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.6 8.6 10.8 6.6 8.3 9.1
a Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 3.4 3.3 5.6 2.3 3.0 3.8
b Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 11.9 11.5 18.7 8.3 10.0 13.5
c Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.9 8.8 13.5 4.2 8.1 9.7
5 Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) -at current prices 29.6 29.5 33.0 24.0 29.1 30.1
6 Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) 6.7 6.8 7.5 6.0 6.5 6.8
7 Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) 10.4 10.5 11.5 9.1 10.0 10.8
8 Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) 7.4 7.5 9.5 6.0 6.9 7.9
9 Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) 6.4 6.4 6.8 5.9 6.3 6.5
10 Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.8
11 Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) 28.3 30.0 40.4 7.9 24.1 34.9
12 Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) 33.1 36.1 43.6 8.5 29.0 37.1
13 Current Account Balance in US$ bn. -19.8 -21.0 26.0 -43.4 -28.8 -18.8
a Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) -0.6 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6
14 Overall BoP in US$ bn. 47.8 50.6 70.0 22.0 37.2 60.0
15 Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline 5.4 5.3 5.8 5.0 5.2 5.5
16 Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light 5.9 5.9 6.3 5.3 5.8 6.0
17 Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities 9.6 9.9 10.6 8.0 9.2 10.1
18 Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products 8.9 9.1 9.8 7.6 8.2 9.5

Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2022-23
  Key Macroeconomic Indicators Annual Forecasts for 2022-23
Mean Median Max Min 1st quartile 3rd quartile
1 GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 7.0 6.8 9.0 5.5 6.5 7.5
a Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 7.2 7.2 10.4 3.2 6.2 8.3
b Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.2 7.5 13.5 6.1 7.0 8.9
2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 11.3 11.2 14.0 7.4 10.6 12.3
3 Gross Capital Formation Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) 29.7 30.7 33.0 16.0 30.0 30.9
4 GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 6.6 6.7 8.1 5.2 6.0 7.1
a Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 3.1 3.0 3.9 1.7 3.0 3.4
b Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 5.8 5.8 8.2 3.1 5.0 6.9
c Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.0 7.8 10.7 6.0 7.3 8.4
5 Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) -at current prices 30.2 29.8 31.5 28.9 29.6 31.0
6 Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) 5.7 5.6 6.5 4.5 5.5 6.0
7 Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) 9.0 9.0 10.0 7.8 8.6 9.4
8 Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.2 8.1 12.7 6.1 7.0 9.0
9 Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) 6.6 6.6 7.0 5.7 6.5 6.8
10 Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) 4.2 4.3 4.5 3.8 4.0 4.3
11 Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) 9.4 8.0 34.5 -0.7 5.7 10.6
12 Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) 8.7 9.1 13.7 3.7 7.1 10.0
13 Current Account Balance in US$ bn. -28.6 -37.9 62.4 -50.0 -43.5 -24.0
a Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) -0.9 -1.1 1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -0.8
14 Overall BoP in US$ bn. 39.7 35.0 62.0 15.0 32.9 52.7
15 Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline 4.7 4.7 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.0
16 Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light 5.0 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.7 5.3
17 Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities 3.4 4.1 5.2 -3.5 3.2 4.6
18 Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products 3.0 3.3 5.5 -3.5 2.6 4.1

Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q2:2021-22 to Q2:2022-23
  Key Macroeconomic Indicators Quarterly Forecasts
Q2: 2021-22 Q3: 2021-22 Q4: 2021-22
Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
1 GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.0 7.7 12.4 5.0 5.7 6.1 9.6 -0.7 5.7 5.9 7.9 2.0
a Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 11.0 10.6 16.0 7.7 6.1 6.2 10.0 2.5 5.9 6.0 13.0 1.7
b Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 11.2 8.9 27.2 4.3 5.3 5.2 10.0 0.5 4.9 5.0 15.0 -2.7
2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 16.5 16.8 22.1 11.2 10.9 11.5 15.9 5.5 10.6 10.2 15.4 4.5
3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) 29.0 28.6 32.1 26.6 29.4 28.6 34.0 27.4 30.9 30.5 35.0 28.9
4 GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 7.8 7.4 12.0 4.9 5.5 5.8 9.1 2.8 4.8 4.8 7.5 1.3
a Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 3.5 3.0 6.0 2.0 2.9 3.0 6.5 1.0 3.4 3.0 5.3 1.7
b Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 7.7 7.2 16.2 3.1 6.2 5.5 17.0 -1.7 4.0 4.4 9.5 -2.7
c Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 8.9 8.6 18.0 4.4 6.1 6.7 9.2 0.4 5.4 5.6 8.6 0.8
5 IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) 8.3 7.8 12.4 1.6 5.0 5.3 8.0 1.0 3.2 4.0 7.0 -1.7
6 Merchandise Exports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) 100.9 101.4 105.1 90.2 99.2 99.0 108.1 89.9 99.7 99.2 110.1 90.7
7 Merchandise Imports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) 136.5 137.4 145.7 127.5 139.8 138.5 155.4 130.9 139.5 140.0 152.4 125.3
8 Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) - - - - 74.2 74.5 75.5 72.5 74.3 74.5 76.0 72.0
9 Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) - - - - 71.7 73.0 78.0 55.7 70.4 72.0 83.0 56.7
10 Policy Repo Rate (end-period) - - - - 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.02 4.00 4.50 4.00

  Key Macroeconomic Indicators Quarterly Forecasts
Q1: 2022-23 Q2: 2022-23
Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
1 GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 12.0 13.1 19.3 4.7 6.7 6.1 11.0 4.1
a Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 11.2 12.0 20.8 2.4 7.1 6.9 13.6 3.3
b Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 13.2 10.0 26.4 5.0 9.5 7.4 37.3 4.2
2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 13.5 12.7 23.3 6.6 10.2 9.8 14.0 7.1
3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) 30.0 28.6 33.7 26.6 30.2 29.9 33.0 27.1
4 GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 10.3 9.8 19.9 4.8 6.2 5.8 9.9 4.7
a Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 3.0 3.1 4.6 1.2 3.2 3.0 4.0 2.5
b Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 6.8 5.6 11.0 -1.7 5.2 5.3 7.8 1.9
c Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) 13.6 12.7 29.7 5.8 7.2 6.9 12.5 4.9
5 IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) 7.1 5.8 19.8 -1.1 5.4 5.0 11.1 3.1
6 Merchandise Exports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) 101.0 99.7 112.1 95.8 102.9 102.6 108.0 97.6
7 Merchandise Imports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) 139.8 140.6 147.7 130.1 142.4 141.2 150.0 135.4
8 Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) 74.3 74.7 76.5 71.5 74.5 74.7 78.0 71.7
9 Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) 69.3 69.0 85.0 57.4 69.8 68.0 88.0 58.4
10 Policy Repo Rate (end-period) 4.21 4.25 5.00 4.00 4.38 4.25 5.00 4.00

Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation
(per cent)
  CPI Combined (General) CPI Combined excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light
Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
Q2:2021-22 5.3 5.2 6.0 5.1 5.9 6.0 6.5 5.1
Q3:2021-22 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 5.3
Q4:2021-22 5.6 5.7 6.6 4.9 5.8 5.9 6.7 4.7
Q1:2022-23 4.9 5.0 5.7 4.1 5.3 5.5 6.2 4.1
Q2:2022-23 4.8 4.9 5.4 4.1 5.0 5.2 5.5 3.9

Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation
(per cent)
  WPI All Commodities WPI Non-food Manufactured Products
Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
Q2:2021-22 11.1 11.1 11.6 9.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 9.4
Q3:2021-22 9.4 9.8 10.8 6.9 9.0 9.7 10.1 6.2
Q4:2021-22 6.7 7.1 8.5 3.5 6.0 6.7 7.5 3.0
Q1:2022-23 3.3 4.2 5.5 -5.0 3.0 3.5 5.3 -6.0
Q2:2022-23 2.9 3.8 5.2 -5.0 2.2 2.7 4.9 -6.0

Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth
Growth Range Forecasts for 2021-22 Forecasts for 2022-23
12.0 per cent or more 0 0
11.5 to 11.9 per cent 0.01 0
11.0 to 11.4 per cent 0.03 0
10.5 to 10.9 per cent 0.07 0
10.0 to 10.4 per cent 0.15 0
9.5 to 9.9 per cent 0.24 0.01
9.0 to 9.4 per cent 0.28 0.02
8.5 to 8.9 per cent 0.19 0.06
8.0 to 8.4 per cent 0.03 0.12
7.5 to 7.9 per cent 0.01 0.14
7.0 to 7.4 per cent 0 0.20
6.5 to 6.9 per cent 0 0.24
6.0 to 6.4 per cent 0 0.12
5.5 to 5.9 per cent 0 0.07
5.0 to 5.4 per cent 0 0.02
4.5 to 4.9 per cent 0 0
4.0 to 4.4 per cent 0 0
3.5 to 3.9 per cent 0 0
3.0 to 3.4 per cent 0 0
2.5 to 2.9 per cent 0 0
2.0 to 2.4 per cent 0 0
1.5 to 1.9 per cent 0 0
1.0 to 1.4 per cent 0 0
0.5 to 0.9 per cent 0 0
0.0 to 0.4 per cent 0 0
below 0.0 per cent 0 0
Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off.

Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation
Inflation Range Forecasts for Q2:2021-22 Forecasts for Q3:2021-22 Forecasts for Q4:2021-22 Forecasts for Q1:2022-23
9.0 per cent or above 0 0 0 0
8.5 to 9.0 per cent 0 0 0 0
8.0 to 8.4 per cent 0 0 0 0
7.5 to 7.9 per cent 0 0 0 0
7.0 to 7.4 per cent 0 0 0.01 0
6.5 to 6.9 per cent 0 0 0.04 0.01
6.0 to 6.4 per cent 0.04 0 0.18 0.02
5.5 to 5.9 per cent 0.20 0.07 0.38 0.12
5.0 to 5.4 per cent 0.64 0.23 0.29 0.33
4.5 to 4.9 per cent 0.10 0.42 0.07 0.33
4.0 to 4.4 per cent 0.01 0.24 0.02 0.16
3.5 to 3.9 per cent 0 0.04 0.01 0.03
3.0 to 3.4 per cent 0 0.01 0 0
2.5 to 2.9 per cent 0 0 0 0
2.0 to 2.4 per cent 0 0 0 0
1.5 to 1.9 per cent 0 0 0 0
1.0 to 1.4 per cent 0 0 0 0
0.5 to 0.9 per cent 0 0 0 0
0 to 0.4 per cent 0 0 0 0
-0.5 to -0.1 per cent 0 0 0 0
-1.0 to -0.6 per cent 0 0 0 0
Below -1.0 per cent 0 0 0 0
Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off.

Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure; WPI: Wholesale Price Index.


1 The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 6, 2021.


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