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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने सितंबर 2019 चक्र के मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम 5,810 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष:

I. परिवारों की मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं पिछले 5 सर्वेक्षणो तक या तो गिरने या स्थिर रहने के बाद, तीन महीने आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं जुलाई 2019 चक्र मे 7.6 प्रतिशत से बढ़कर सितंबर 2019 में 8.0 प्रतिशत हो गई; इस बीच, एक वर्ष आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं 20 आधार अंक से बढ़कर 8.1 प्रतिशत हो गई (चार्ट 1a, 1b, तालिका 2) ।

II. जुलाई 2019 की तुलना में, आने वाले तीन महीने और एक साल में ज्यादा परिवारों को सामान्य कीमते बढ्ने की उम्मीद हैं (तालिका 1b)।

Chart 1a & 1b

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-18 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.4 0.92 74.8 1.02 78.3 1.01 77.9 0.95 79.3 0.94
Price increase more than current rate 49.1 1.15 44.1 1.08 50.0 1.22 49.8 1.15 49.0 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 27.6 1.00 26.9 0.97 25.6 1.01 24.7 0.98 25.1 1.04
Price increase less than current rate 3.7 0.38 3.8 0.41 2.8 0.32 3.4 0.38 5.2 0.51
No changes in prices 17.4 0.88 21.9 0.98 18.4 0.96 18.5 0.88 18.6 0.92
Decline in prices 2.2 0.31 3.4 0.36 3.3 0.35 3.6 0.39 2.1 0.29
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 79.5 0.89 73.7 0.96 78.5 0.87 80.0 0.87 81.4 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 48.9 1.12 43.6 1.06 48.5 1.13 48.5 1.09 52.9 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 24.5 0.91 24.1 0.88 24.7 0.94 25.7 1.01 21.4 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 6.1 0.48 6.0 0.49 5.4 0.46 5.8 0.47 7.1 0.59
No changes in prices 15.5 0.82 17.5 0.84 15.0 0.77 13.8 0.75 13.2 0.78
Decline in prices 4.9 0.40 8.8 0.56 6.5 0.47 6.2 0.52 5.4 0.45
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 78.9 0.87 71.3 0.94 75.8 0.91 73.8 0.97 74.7 0.95
Price increase more than current rate 47.5 1.11 41.0 1.02 45.2 1.15 43.1 1.14 45.5 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 25.3 0.91 24.5 0.86 25.3 0.91 25.2 0.93 21.8 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 6.1 0.48 5.7 0.48 5.4 0.44 5.5 0.46 7.3 0.57
No changes in prices 17.1 0.81 21.9 0.87 18.1 0.81 20.4 0.90 20.8 0.88
Decline in prices 4.0 0.38 6.8 0.47 6.0 0.47 5.8 0.48 4.5 0.42
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 56.6 1.05 59.5 1.05 61.3 1.12 57.9 1.07 56.2 1.07
Price increase more than current rate 32.4 1.05 35.2 0.99 37.0 1.12 33.7 1.05 33.9 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 19.5 0.80 19.3 0.79 19.9 0.85 19.6 0.81 17.3 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.41 5.0 0.41 4.3 0.41 4.6 0.41 4.9 0.45
No changes in prices 30.8 0.98 27.7 0.96 27.2 1.01 28.2 0.96 28.5 0.96
Decline in prices 12.5 0.66 12.8 0.62 11.5 0.64 13.9 0.67 15.4 0.73
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 67.1 0.92 68.1 0.98 70.9 1.06 68.6 1.01 68.1 1.10
Price increase more than current rate 45.2 1.02 44.2 0.97 46.9 1.13 45.2 1.04 45.2 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 17.9 0.78 19.5 0.76 19.8 0.83 19.4 0.82 17.9 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.40 4.4 0.41 4.2 0.39 4.0 0.38 5.0 0.44
No changes in prices 24.1 0.87 22.4 0.88 21.7 0.96 22.8 0.90 23.1 0.98
Decline in prices 8.8 0.59 9.5 0.60 7.3 0.52 8.6 0.58 8.7 0.59
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 67.7 1.04 66.4 1.02 68.6 1.03 66.1 1.03 63.5 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 41.8 1.15 39.2 1.00 42.6 1.14 39.8 1.07 40.2 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 21.0 0.89 21.9 0.84 21.7 0.89 21.6 0.83 18.1 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.43 5.3 0.45 4.3 0.41 4.7 0.42 5.3 0.45
No changes in prices 29.6 1.01 28.9 0.99 27.7 0.99 28.7 0.94 31.6 1.00
Decline in prices 2.7 0.33 4.7 0.42 3.8 0.37 5.3 0.46 4.8 0.42
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses from the September 2018 round onwards.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-18 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 88.3 0.77 84.4 0.90 86.3 0.77 83.8 0.87 87.0 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 59.7 1.15 54.6 1.08 58.5 1.19 56.8 1.15 57.3 1.29
Price increase similar to current rate 25.3 0.97 26.6 0.93 24.9 1.03 24.1 1.01 25.1 1.07
Price increase less than current rate 3.3 0.35 3.2 0.38 3.0 0.32 2.9 0.35 4.6 0.47
No changes in prices 9.1 0.69 12.6 0.83 10.2 0.70 12.6 0.78 10.6 0.73
Decline in prices 2.6 0.32 3.0 0.33 3.5 0.37 3.6 0.40 2.4 0.31
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.8 0.78 80.1 0.87 83.1 0.76 81.9 0.80 83.0 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 52.5 1.16 47.2 1.06 50.4 1.19 49.3 1.16 52.2 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 27.0 0.96 28.0 0.88 27.6 0.97 27.7 0.98 25.4 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.45 5.0 0.44 5.1 0.43 4.8 0.42 5.4 0.53
No changes in prices 9.7 0.64 14.0 0.76 11.4 0.64 12.0 0.67 11.9 0.76
Decline in prices 5.5 0.45 5.9 0.45 5.5 0.43 6.1 0.49 5.2 0.43
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.3 0.79 78.2 0.89 81.3 0.81 78.1 0.89 78.6 0.94
Price increase more than current rate 51.0 1.18 45.7 1.05 49.7 1.18 46.1 1.11 48.1 1.25
Price increase similar to current rate 26.1 0.91 27.5 0.89 26.8 0.99 27.1 0.97 24.4 0.98
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.44 5.0 0.41 4.9 0.44 4.9 0.44 6.1 0.52
No changes in prices 13.1 0.70 16.9 0.80 13.7 0.72 16.6 0.80 16.6 0.85
Decline in prices 4.6 0.40 5.0 0.41 5.0 0.43 5.3 0.47 4.8 0.43
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 67.5 0.97 68.3 0.99 68.8 1.04 66.2 1.01 64.1 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 40.7 1.10 41.3 1.02 42.9 1.14 39.8 1.08 39.0 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 22.0 0.83 22.6 0.81 21.9 0.88 22.0 0.91 19.4 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.42 4.4 0.41 4.0 0.40 4.3 0.39 5.6 0.49
No changes in prices 22.6 0.84 21.9 0.89 21.5 0.91 23.0 0.89 24.2 0.90
Decline in prices 10.0 0.58 9.8 0.57 9.7 0.59 10.9 0.61 11.8 0.64
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 77.9 0.89 77.6 0.86 79.8 0.84 76.9 0.89 77.3 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 52.9 1.08 51.0 1.01 54.3 1.05 52.1 1.00 51.8 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 21.0 0.87 22.9 0.77 21.9 0.84 21.5 0.83 20.6 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.38 3.8 0.36 3.6 0.37 3.4 0.34 4.8 0.45
No changes in prices 15.1 0.74 15.2 0.75 14.3 0.77 15.3 0.75 15.5 0.73
Decline in prices 7.0 0.52 7.2 0.53 5.9 0.45 7.8 0.55 7.2 0.53
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 82.0 0.81 78.8 0.87 80.9 0.83 77.1 0.93 79.0 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 49.7 1.18 47.5 1.02 50.3 1.12 47.2 1.12 50.0 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 27.3 0.96 26.4 0.87 25.3 0.94 25.2 0.95 22.7 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.44 4.8 0.42 5.3 0.49 4.6 0.43 6.3 0.51
No changes in prices 15.6 0.76 17.4 0.81 15.5 0.77 17.8 0.82 17.2 0.85
Decline in prices 2.4 0.29 3.9 0.37 3.6 0.36 5.2 0.47 3.8 0.38
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses from the September 2018 round onwards.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: September 2019
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.2 0.12 7.1 0.18 8.9 0.12 8.0 0.15 8.6 0.13 8.1 0.19
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.4 0.14 7.2 0.23 9.0 0.14 8.1 0.20 8.5 0.17 8.1 0.23
Female 8.0 0.15 6.7 0.25 8.8 0.15 7.8 0.19 8.7 0.18 8.2 0.24
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.0 0.60 6.6 0.76 8.3 0.57 6.8 0.78 7.6 0.59 6.2 0.72
Other Employees 7.9 0.19 6.9 0.28 8.6 0.19 7.7 0.23 8.3 0.21 7.9 0.25
Self Employed 8.5 0.20 7.6 0.31 9.1 0.21 8.2 0.24 8.5 0.25 8.1 0.31
Homemaker 8.0 0.17 6.6 0.26 8.7 0.16 7.8 0.19 8.7 0.20 8.2 0.25
Retired Persons 9.2 0.31 9.1 0.72 9.8 0.34 9.8 0.62 9.0 0.40 9.1 0.87
Daily Workers 8.1 0.27 7.0 0.55 8.8 0.28 8.2 0.42 8.6 0.32 8.3 0.50
Other category 8.1 0.26 7.0 0.33 8.7 0.26 7.8 0.30 8.7 0.29 8.3 0.38
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.8 0.19 6.5 0.25 8.4 0.20 7.5 0.23 8.4 0.24 7.9 0.24
25 to 30 years 7.8 0.20 6.9 0.33 8.7 0.21 7.9 0.25 8.6 0.24 8.5 0.27
30 to 35 years 8.0 0.20 6.8 0.28 8.7 0.21 7.7 0.23 8.8 0.24 8.1 0.32
35 to 40 years 8.4 0.21 7.1 0.35 8.9 0.21 7.8 0.28 8.6 0.25 8.0 0.35
40 to 45 years 8.2 0.21 6.7 0.32 8.9 0.22 7.7 0.32 8.5 0.26 8.1 0.36
45 to 50 years 8.3 0.24 7.6 0.33 8.9 0.24 8.3 0.33 8.6 0.29 8.3 0.45
50 to 55 years 8.5 0.28 7.8 0.43 9.0 0.29 8.1 0.36 8.6 0.34 8.1 0.49
55 to 60 years 8.8 0.31 7.7 0.47 9.6 0.30 8.9 0.44 8.7 0.36 8.4 0.44
60 years and above 8.8 0.28 7.9 0.57 9.3 0.30 8.5 0.49 8.7 0.33 8.3 0.49
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 9.5 0.42 8.8 0.95 10.5 0.48 10.0 0.84 9.9 0.51 9.8 0.80
Bengaluru 7.0 0.34 5.8 0.14 8.0 0.32 7.1 0.31 8.1 0.34 7.6 0.33
Bhopal 8.1 0.63 6.7 0.98 9.3 0.64 8.6 1.12 8.8 0.51 8.8 0.96
Bhubaneswar 6.3 0.47 5.5 0.20 7.1 0.64 6.3 0.68 7.4 0.82 6.9 0.78
Chennai 11.8 0.45 11.6 1.07 12.7 0.44 14.4 1.09 12.8 0.49 15.8 0.62
Delhi 7.4 0.29 6.1 0.30 7.7 0.28 6.6 0.33 7.5 0.32 6.6 0.38
Guwahati 5.8 1.05 5.2 0.98 5.9 1.14 5.3 1.06 5.6 1.33 4.9 1.20
Hyderabad 9.2 0.76 8.6 1.52 9.9 0.73 9.6 1.26 9.9 0.73 9.8 1.24
Jaipur 7.1 0.27 6.7 0.47 7.9 0.32 7.5 0.40 7.8 0.66 7.8 0.63
Kolkata 9.2 0.24 8.7 0.47 9.9 0.25 9.4 0.34 9.9 0.26 9.7 0.36
Lucknow 9.0 0.73 8.6 1.42 9.6 0.71 9.2 1.09 9.8 0.74 9.8 1.10
Mumbai 7.6 0.24 6.8 0.35 8.1 0.24 7.5 0.27 6.7 0.37 6.8 0.62
Nagpur 8.7 0.62 7.8 0.81 9.7 0.65 9.1 0.80 9.1 0.60 9.4 0.83
Patna 6.5 0.28 6.0 0.19 6.8 0.29 6.2 0.25 6.7 0.37 6.3 0.35
Thiruvananthapuram 6.1 0.47 5.3 0.29 7.2 0.47 6.1 0.54 8.6 0.56 7.9 0.63
Chandigarh 8.2 0.50 8.2 0.72 8.0 0.43 7.6 0.38 8.2 0.61 8.3 0.45
Ranchi 6.2 0.38 5.6 0.19 7.5 0.48 7.0 0.39 7.9 0.77 7.7 0.70
Raipur 8.1 0.54 7.1 1.12 8.4 0.73 7.3 1.16 8.4 0.91 8.8 1.88
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses for the September 2019 round.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Sep-18 9.2 0.12 8.4 0.19 9.9 0.12 9.4 0.27 9.6 0.14 9.8 0.23
Mar-19 8.0 0.09 6.9 0.14 8.7 0.10 7.8 0.12 8.3 0.12 8.1 0.17
May-19 7.8 0.10 6.6 0.15 8.6 0.10 7.6 0.12 8.4 0.12 8.1 0.16
Jul-19 7.9 0.10 6.6 0.15 8.6 0.10 7.6 0.12 8.3 0.13 7.9 0.18
Sep-19 8.2 0.12 7.1 0.18 8.9 0.12 8.0 0.15 8.6 0.13 8.1 0.19
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-18 64.4 65.3 52.8 58.6 64.3
Mar-19 62.6 62.3 54.9 58.8 63.4
May-19 66.4 65.4 56.8 62.0 66.2
Jul-19 66.1 65.5 55.3 60.8 65.0
Sep-19 62.7 62.1 50.2 56.8 61.2
One Year Ahead
Sep-18 72.2 71.5 60.0 66.5 71.4
Mar-19 70.2 68.8 61.8 66.0 69.9
May-19 71.6 71.3 62.7 70.7 72.5
Jul-19 72.3 71.2 61.5 70.0 72.4
Sep-19 70.7 67.5 56.8 65.5 70.0
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: September 2019
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 24 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34
1-<2 5 64 49 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 127
2-<3 3 11 150 75 38 17 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 297
3-<4 0 3 13 159 71 64 16 3 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 335
4-<5 3 1 12 11 217 91 45 13 4 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 406
5-<6 2 3 15 30 34 622 205 204 78 13 54 2 3 2 0 3 0 0 1270
6-<7 0 2 2 0 7 6 227 83 62 15 11 0 4 0 0 0 0 2 421
7-<8 0 1 1 3 4 5 12 194 108 46 39 1 2 0 2 2 0 1 421
8-<9 0 2 0 1 3 5 3 3 167 71 75 6 8 1 1 4 0 0 350
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 7 114 46 20 12 3 3 4 1 1 219
10-<11 0 0 4 2 5 22 5 13 5 7 374 62 114 38 10 131 42 2 836
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 27 23 18 4 8 4 0 88
12-<13 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 34 12 16 17 10 0 92
13-<14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 10 6 6 0 32
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 15 10 11 0 41
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 2 1 0 88 88 4 192
>=16 0 0 0 2 2 5 0 2 0 2 23 0 1 0 1 10 589 12 649
Total 37 92 249 289 384 845 514 523 436 273 637 121 204 84 62 283 754 23 5810
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: September 2019
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 17 6 2 3 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34
1-<2 24 27 24 33 12 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 127
2-<3 59 3 78 48 53 36 8 4 4 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 297
3-<4 41 1 5 84 61 79 31 9 10 2 6 1 0 2 0 1 2 0 335
4-<5 59 1 7 7 129 81 56 27 19 8 8 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 406
5-<6 183 2 7 7 16 376 147 209 109 38 128 2 11 5 3 14 11 2 1270
6-<7 68 0 2 1 1 3 140 57 72 23 28 6 14 1 0 1 2 2 421
7-<8 56 0 2 2 0 7 7 114 77 54 73 4 11 3 3 6 2 0 421
8-<9 41 2 0 0 2 4 4 2 97 43 92 9 27 4 7 10 6 0 350
9-<10 23 0 0 1 1 0 1 6 3 78 39 19 24 6 4 7 7 0 219
10-<11 75 0 1 0 0 10 4 9 6 2 251 31 98 32 18 181 116 2 836
11-<12 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 21 14 19 4 15 11 1 88
12-<13 7 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 20 8 11 13 30 0 92
13-<14 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 6 9 11 0 32
14-<15 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 9 10 16 0 41
15-<16 20 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 57 101 3 192
>=16 61 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 15 0 2 1 3 6 542 15 649
Total 740 42 128 187 276 613 399 438 400 249 648 96 224 85 70 330 859 26 5810
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा द्विमासिक अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, उत्तरदाताओं के अपेक्षित निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करती हैं। अतः इन्हे मुद्रास्फीति पर परिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।


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