प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने जून 2018 चक्र की मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम विभिन्न व्यावसायिक श्रेणियों (तालिका 1) को कवर करते हुए 5,189 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित है।

विशेष:

i. ऐसे उत्तरदाताओं का अनुपात जो आगे के तीन महीनों में कीमतों में वृद्धि वर्तमान दर से अधिक रहने की अपेक्षा करते थे, मई 2018 के चक्र की भांति बना रहा। तथापि आगे के एक साल के लिए इस अनुपात में मामूली गिरावट आई है (तालिका 2)।

ii. जहां तक उत्पाद समूहों संबंध है, आगामी तीन महीनों में और आगामी एक वर्ष में घरेलू टिकाऊ वस्तुओं की कीमतों में होनेवाली वृद्धि को वर्तमान दर के मुकाबले अधिक तेज़ी से होने की अपेक्षा करनेवाले उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में उल्लेखनीय गिरावट देखी गई।

iii. मई 2018 चक्र की तुलना में आगे के तीन महीनों और आगे के एक वर्ष की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाओं, प्रत्येक में, 20 आधार अंकों (बीपीएस) अंक की वृद्धि दर्ज़ हुई (चार्ट 1, तालिका 4) ।

iv. जून 2017 चक्र की तुलना में तीन महीने आगे और एक वर्ष आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में क्रमशः 140 और 150 बीपीएस की वृद्धि हुई।

नोट : कृपया टाइम सिरीज़ डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1: Respondents’ Profile (Category): Share in Total Sample - Jun 2018
Category of Respondents Share in Total (%) Target Share (%)
Financial Sector Employees 9.9 10.0
Other Employees 15.6 15.0
Self-employed 20.3 20.0
Homemakers 29.2 30.0
Retired Persons 9.5 10.0
Daily Workers 9.8 10.0
Others 5.7 5.0

Table 2: Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead and One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Round Jun-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jun-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18
Options: General Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 77.2 80.6 80.2 82.3 83.8 82.4 92.7 90.8 91.1 91.6
Price increase more than current rate 39.9 49.8 45.4 50.5 50.1 44.1 63.0 56.7 62.6 59.8
Price increase similar to current rate 26.6 24.6 27.2 25.1 26.4 28.3 23.9 28.0 23.4 25.8
Price increase less than current rate 10.7 6.2 7.5 6.7 7.3 10.1 5.8 6.2 5.0 6.0
No change in prices 16.8 17.4 17.8 16.0 14.6 11.2 5.3 7.1 6.5 6.5
Decline in prices 6.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 6.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.9
Options: Food Product Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 71.6 78.1 79.6 82.0 81.4 75.8 85.0 85.0 85.6 85.1
Price increase more than current rate 39.1 45.8 44.0 48.3 47.8 38.0 52.1 47.4 53.4 51.4
Price increase similar to current rate 21.8 23.4 24.9 24.5 24.8 26.8 24.9 28.9 25.2 26.5
Price increase less than current rate 10.7 8.9 10.7 9.3 8.7 11.0 8.1 8.7 7.0 7.1
No change in prices 14.2 15.5 15.4 13.5 13.3 12.4 10.4 10.2 9.4 9.7
Decline in prices 14.3 6.4 5.0 4.5 5.3 11.8 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3
Options: Non-Food Product Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 72.1 73.3 75.0 78.4 78.2 74.8 80.5 80.0 82.7 83.3
Price increase more than current rate 36.9 41.2 39.6 45.8 44.5 36.3 48.8 44.2 51.1 49.1
Price increase similar to current rate 23.6 23.3 25.4 24.0 24.4 27.3 23.7 26.8 25.3 26.6
Price increase less than current rate 11.6 8.8 10.0 8.6 9.3 11.2 7.9 9.0 6.3 7.6
No change in prices 18.1 21.9 20.8 18.1 17.7 16.3 15.4 15.8 13.2 12.7
Decline in prices 9.8 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.1 9.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0
Options: Household Durables Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 65.4 60.0 63.7 63.2 58.7 70.3 68.8 71.1 72.5 70.6
Price increase more than current rate 34.7 35.0 34.7 36.7 32.6 35.7 42.3 40.1 45.2 41.6
Price increase similar to current rate 20.6 18.6 20.7 19.9 19.1 24.3 19.8 23.4 21.5 21.8
Price increase less than current rate 10.1 6.4 8.3 6.6 7.1 10.3 6.7 7.7 5.8 7.2
No change in prices 20.6 28.8 26.2 26.8 30.9 17.5 21.7 19.9 19.2 21.2
Decline in prices 14.0 11.3 10.1 10.0 10.4 12.2 9.5 9.0 8.3 8.2
Options: Housing Prices Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 64.3 69.5 70.0 71.6 71.6 73.4 78.4 80.2 79.8 81.0
Price increase more than current rate 37.1 45.9 43.9 47.6 45.3 42.2 53.3 50.9 55.2 53.0
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 18.0 18.8 18.2 19.9 22.4 19.2 22.5 19.6 21.5
Price increase less than current rate 8.7 5.6 7.3 5.8 6.4 8.8 5.9 6.8 5.0 6.5
No change in prices 22.0 21.0 22.4 20.8 20.7 15.1 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.3
Decline in prices 13.6 9.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 11.5 7.7 5.9 6.3 5.7
Options: Cost of Services Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 68.9 71.5 70.2 72.0 70.8 78.6 82.8 82.6 84.2 84.1
Price increase more than current rate 35.1 41.4 38.3 42.9 40.8 38.8 50.5 45.3 52.9 49.5
Price increase similar to current rate 23.7 23.2 23.5 22.6 22.8 27.8 24.3 28.6 24.4 26.6
Price increase less than current rate 10.2 6.8 8.3 6.6 7.3 12.0 8.0 8.7 6.9 8.0
No change in prices 25.3 25.6 26.6 25.6 26.5 15.6 14.2 14.9 13.5 13.7
Decline in prices 5.8 3.0 3.3 2.4 2.6 5.9 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.2
Note: Constituent items may not add up to totals, due to rounding off.

Table 3: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jun-17 62.0 64.3 57.2 57.6 63.4
Dec-17 64.9 64.1 55.5 58.4 63.8
Mar-18 63.7 63.2 55.6 57.8 62.7
May-18 67.5 65.6 56.6 60.0 65.0
Jun-18 65.6 64.7 53.8 60.0 63.7
One Year Ahead
Jun-17 68.2 67.7 62.0 63.2 70.0
Dec-17 70.1 69.0 58.8 65.1 70.5
Mar-18 69.0 66.3 59.6 64.3 69.2
May-18 72.4 70.8 62.5 67.4 72.1
Jun-18 71.9 71.4 60.9 67.4 71.9

Table 4: Household Inflation Expectations – Current, Three Months and One Year Ahead
Survey Period Ended Inflation rate in Per cent
Current Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev.
Jun-17 7.3 6.4 3.8 8.1 7.5 3.9 9.1 8.6 4.1
Dec-17 7.9 6.7 4.2 8.4 7.5 4.3 8.9 8.5 4.8
Mar-18 8.2 7.2 4.0 8.6 7.8 4.1 8.9 8.6 4.7
May-18 8.7 7.9 4.3 9.4 8.7 4.4 9.7 9.9 5.1
Jun-18 8.9 8.1 4.4 9.5 8.9 4.4 9.8 10.1 5.0

Table 5: Factors that Explain the Total Variability
Survey Period Ended Current Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Jun-17 City, Age-Group, Category City, Age-Group, Category City, Age-Group, Category
Dec-17 City, Category, Age-Group, Gender City, Category, Age-Group City, Category
Mar-18 City, Age-Group, Gender City, Category, Age-Group, Gender City, Category
May-18 City, Category, Age-Group City, Category City, Gender, Category
Jun-18 City, Age-Group, Category City, Age-Group, Category City, Age-Group, Category

Table 6 : Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations: June 2018
  Current Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev.
Overall 8.9 8.1 4.4 9.5 8.9 4.4 9.8 10.1 5.0
Gender-wise
Male 9.0 8.2 4.4 9.5 8.9 4.5 9.8 10.0 5.1
Female 8.8 8.0 4.3 9.5 8.8 4.3 9.9 10.2 4.9
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees 8.5 7.6 4.2 9.2 8.5 4.3 9.4 9.1 4.8
Other Employees 9.0 8.1 4.4 9.5 8.7 4.5 9.8 10.1 5.0
Self Employed 8.9 8.1 4.5 9.5 8.9 4.5 9.7 10.0 5.2
Homemakers 9.0 8.2 4.3 9.6 8.9 4.4 10.0 10.2 4.9
Retired Persons 9.2 8.5 4.4 9.9 9.4 4.6 10.2 10.3 5.0
Daily Workers 9.2 8.7 4.4 9.8 9.5 4.4 10.1 10.3 5.0
Other category 8.2 7.3 4.0 8.7 7.9 4.2 9.4 9.2 4.6
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years 8.0 7.1 3.9 8.7 7.9 4.1 9.2 8.9 4.7
25 to 30 years 8.6 7.7 4.2 9.2 8.4 4.3 9.6 9.7 4.9
30 to 35 years 8.9 8.2 4.3 9.5 8.8 4.3 9.8 10.2 4.9
35 to 40 years 9.1 8.2 4.4 9.7 9.1 4.5 9.9 10.1 5.0
40 to 45 years 8.9 8.3 4.4 9.4 9.0 4.6 9.5 10.0 5.1
45 to 50 years 9.6 9.0 4.6 10.1 10.1 4.6 10.2 10.5 5.2
50 to 55 years 9.7 9.8 4.4 10.1 10.1 4.4 10.5 10.5 4.8
55 to 60 years 9.4 8.9 4.7 10.1 9.8 4.7 10.6 10.6 4.9
60 years and above 9.4 8.7 4.5 10.1 9.7 4.7 10.5 10.4 5.1
City-wise
Ahmedabad 10.3 10.1 4.2 11.3 10.7 4.2 11.3 10.8 4.4
Bengaluru 5.6 5.2 2.9 6.2 5.9 2.9 6.8 6.9 3.6
Bhopal 6.7 5.8 3.6 7.4 6.6 3.8 6.8 6.8 4.6
Bhubaneswar 8.3 7.3 3.6 9.8 8.9 3.4 11.7 10.8 3.2
Chennai 8.6 8.3 3.8 9.2 9.0 3.9 10.6 10.7 4.4
Delhi 8.8 8.4 4.1 9.3 8.9 4.3 9.8 9.5 4.6
Guwahati 10.4 10.5 5.3 9.9 10.1 5.3 9.2 9.0 5.8
Hyderabad 9.8 8.3 4.8 10.8 10.1 4.6 12.1 12.5 4.4
Jaipur 7.9 8.2 3.0 8.4 8.7 3.1 9.0 9.7 4.0
Kolkata 10.5 10.3 4.6 11.1 10.7 4.6 11.4 11.0 4.8
Lucknow 9.1 8.5 4.5 10.0 9.7 4.6 10.2 10.3 5.2
Mumbai 11.4 10.8 4.7 11.8 12.2 4.6 11.6 12.5 5.3
Nagpur 7.7 6.7 4.1 8.8 8.3 4.1 9.2 10.0 4.7
Patna 7.9 7.2 3.3 8.2 7.8 3.6 8.5 8.5 4.1
Thiruvananthapuram 9.0 7.6 4.7 10.1 9.6 4.9 10.6 10.5 5.4
Chandigarh 9.7 9.2 4.2 8.6 8.5 4.6 9.2 8.7 4.7
Ranchi 7.9 7.4 3.3 8.8 8.2 3.8 8.6 8.6 4.9
Raipur 7.2 5.9 3.4 7.6 6.2 3.7 6.0 5.4 5.2

Table 7: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: June 2018
(Number of Respondents)
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 22 4 4 2 0 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 44
1-<2 2 28 7 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41
2-<3 6 14 103 46 18 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 198
3-<4 3 6 12 79 68 32 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 209
4-<5 7 1 7 23 127 87 52 10 8 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 326
5-<6 7 1 11 20 24 421 158 199 77 6 38 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 965
6-<7 4 0 1 3 10 5 148 78 62 15 12 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 343
7-<8 3 1 0 1 0 16 2 188 93 62 45 2 3 1 2 1 0 0 420
8-<9 2 0 1 1 2 3 8 9 161 88 99 9 15 3 3 2 1 0 407
9-<10 3 0 0 1 0 4 3 2 3 112 58 23 12 4 3 2 2 1 233
10-<11 4 0 2 7 3 23 3 14 16 2 363 64 156 29 8 100 34 2 830
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 34 12 9 4 8 2 0 73
12-<13 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 4 0 34 5 12 15 2 0 76
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 4 6 2 0 25
14-<15 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 9 12 0 40
15-<16 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 1 1 1 7 0 2 2 4 62 80 1 168
>=16 2 0 0 1 1 6 1 2 1 0 23 2 1 0 1 20 724 6 791
Total 66 55 148 191 254 616 384 507 425 288 652 135 241 66 58 228 862 13 5189

Table 8: Cross-tabulation of Current and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: June 2018
(Number of Respondents)
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 24 2 3 4 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 44
1-<2 11 14 3 5 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41
2-<3 42 4 60 20 37 22 8 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 198
3-<4 26 3 5 41 36 53 17 10 10 1 4 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 209
4-<5 42 1 5 10 86 51 47 30 22 13 10 2 3 0 0 1 1 2 326
5-<6 85 1 4 7 12 256 64 169 107 48 159 9 13 5 1 14 4 7 965
6-<7 30 0 0 2 3 5 93 36 77 21 40 8 12 4 4 1 3 4 343
7-<8 28 0 0 2 0 7 3 124 39 60 85 18 29 5 3 11 4 2 420
8-<9 21 0 1 3 1 4 2 3 101 31 114 19 66 10 8 13 9 1 407
9-<10 20 0 0 0 0 3 0 5 4 61 32 34 29 12 12 13 8 0 233
10-<11 45 0 2 1 1 16 0 13 10 3 252 17 102 40 39 178 108 3 830
11-<12 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 32 3 8 4 9 10 0 73
12-<13 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 26 3 7 12 19 0 76
13-<14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 4 8 0 25
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 8 5 24 0 40
15-<16 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 7 1 1 0 0 49 98 1 168
>=16 46 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 1 1 16 1 1 0 1 22 681 14 791
Total 439 25 83 95 182 430 236 394 379 242 722 141 286 97 87 334 982 35 5189

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा नियमित अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और अन्य आर्थिक संकेतकों का अनुपूरक होता है । सर्वेक्षण में उल्लिखित मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं उत्तरदाताओं द्वारा दिए गए उत्तरों पर आधारित है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करती हैं। अतः, इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति के आधिकारिक उपायों के लिए बेंचमार्क के रूप में नहीं माना जाना चाहिए।


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