प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मई 2018 चक्र की मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम विभिन्न व्यावसायिक श्रेणियों (तालिका 1) को कवर करते हुए 5,289 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित है।

विशेष:

i. ऐसे उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में पिछले दो चक्रों में हुई गिरावट के बाद अब मई 2018 के चक्र में वृद्धि हुई है, जो आगे के तीन महीनों में और आगे के एक वर्ष के लिए अपेक्षा करते थे कि कीमतों में वृद्धि वर्तमान दर से भी अधिक रहेगी (तालिका 2)।

ii. मार्च 2018 ;चक्र की तुलना में आगे के तीन महीनों और आगे के एक वर्ष की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की उम्मीदें क्रमशः 90 आधार अंक (bps) तथा 130 आधार अंक से बढ़ीं (चार्ट 1, तालिका 4) ।

iii. मई 2017 चक्र की तुलना में तीन महीने आगे तथा एक वर्ष आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में प्रत्येक में 140 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि हुई।


नोट : कृपया टाइम सिरीज़ डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1: Respondents’ Profile (Category): Share in Total Sample – May 2018
Category of Respondents Share in Total (%) Target Share (%)
Financial Sector Employees 9.3 10.0
Other Employees 15.5 15.0
Self-employed 20.3 20.0
Homemakers 29.4 30.0
Retired Persons 9.2 10.0
Daily Workers 10.4 10.0
Others 6.0 5.0

Table 2: Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead and One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Round May-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 May-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18
Options: General Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 70.2 81.4 80.5 80.2 82.3 80.9 92.7 92.7 90.8 91.1
Price increase more than current rate 35.9 53.2 49.8 45.4 50.5 46.3 64.1 63.0 56.7 62.6
Price increase similar  to current rate 25.0 23.1 24.6 27.2 25.1 26.4 23.8 23.9 28.0 23.4
Price increase less  than current rate 9.3 5.1 6.1 7.5 6.7 8.2 4.8 5.8 6.2 5.0
No change in prices 25.2 16.3 17.4 17.8 16.0 14.3 5.5 5.3 7.0 6.5
Decline in prices 4.6 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 4.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4
Options: Food Product Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 73.7 80.3 78.1 79.6 82.0 79.8 85.7 85.0 85.0 85.6
Price increase more than current rate 38.6 50.4 45.8 44.0 48.3 42.1 54.0 52.1 47.4 53.4
Price increase similar  to current rate 23.6 23.2 23.4 24.9 24.5 27.2 25.2 24.9 28.9 25.2
Price increase less  than current rate 11.5 6.7 8.9 10.7 9.3 10.6 6.5 8.1 8.7 7.0
No change in prices 18.2 12.9 15.5 15.4 13.5 11.9 9.0 10.4 10.2 9.4
Decline in prices 8.1 6.8 6.4 5.0 4.5 8.2 5.3 4.6 4.8 5.0
Options: Non-Food Product Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 66.3 75.7 73.3 75.0 78.4 73.9 81.4 80.5 80.0 82.7
Price increase more than current rate 32.4 47.1 41.2 39.6 45.8 37.1 51.2 48.8 44.2 51.1
Price increase similar  to current rate 23.4 21.9 23.3 25.4 24.0 25.7 23.5 23.7 26.8 25.3
Price increase less  than current rate 10.6 6.7 8.8 10.0 8.6 11.1 6.7 7.9 9.0 6.3
No change in prices 26.9 19.5 21.9 20.8 18.1 19.1 14.4 15.4 15.8 13.2
Decline in prices 6.8 4.8 4.8 4.2 3.6 7.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1
Options: Household Durables Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 51.1 61.9 60.0 63.7 63.2 62.1 71.0 68.8 71.1 72.5
Price increase more than current rate 25.1 38.6 35.0 34.7 36.7 31.9 44.5 42.3 40.1 45.2
Price increase similar  to current rate 17.1 17.4 18.6 20.7 19.9 21.5 20.7 19.8 23.4 21.5
Price increase less  than current rate 8.9 5.8 6.4 8.3 6.6 8.8 5.8 6.7 7.7 5.8
No change in prices 33.6 26.8 28.8 26.2 26.8 24.9 20.3 21.7 19.9 19.2
Decline in prices 15.3 11.3 11.3 10.1 10.0 13.0 8.7 9.5 9.0 8.3
Options: Housing Prices Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 57.3 70.5 69.5 70.0 71.6 69.7 78.8 78.3 80.2 79.8
Price increase more than current rate 33.2 48.4 45.9 43.9 47.6 39.7 54.5 53.3 50.9 55.2
Price increase similar  to current rate 17.0 17.0 18.0 18.8 18.2 22.7 19.4 19.2 22.5 19.6
Price increase less  than current rate 7.1 5.0 5.6 7.3 5.8 7.3 4.9 5.9 6.8 5.0
No change in prices 26.4 20.1 21.0 22.3 20.8 17.4 13.6 14.0 13.9 13.9
Decline in prices 16.2 9.5 9.5 7.7 7.7 12.9 7.7 7.6 5.9 6.3
Options: Cost of Services Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Prices will increase 61.3 71.1 71.5 70.2 72.0 75.5 83.4 82.8 82.6 84.2
Price increase more than current rate 29.4 44.3 41.4 38.3 42.9 37.3 51.5 50.5 45.3 52.9
Price increase similar  to current rate 21.7 20.7 23.2 23.5 22.6 26.8 25.2 24.3 28.6 24.4
Price increase less  than current rate 10.2 6.2 6.8 8.3 6.6 11.4 6.7 8.0 8.7 6.9
No change in prices 33.0 25.8 25.6 26.6 25.6 19.1 14.0 14.2 14.9 13.5
Decline in prices 5.7 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.4 5.5 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.4
Note: Constituent items may not add up to totals, due to rounding off.

Table 3: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
May-17 59.8 59.7 51.0 52.5 60.3
Nov-17 66.6 67.4 57.1 60.3 65.7
Dec-17 64.9 64.1 55.5 58.4 63.8
Mar-18 63.7 63.2 55.6 57.8 62.7
May-18 67.5 65.6 56.6 60.0 65.0
One Year Ahead
May-17 66.8 64.4 56.4 58.7 67.3
Nov-17 72.7 70.5 60.9 66.2 71.3
Dec-17 70.1 69.0 58.8 65.1 70.5
Mar-18 69.0 66.3 59.6 64.3 69.2
May-18 72.4 70.8 62.5 67.4 72.1

Table 4: Household Inflation Expectations – Current, Three Months and One Year Ahead
Survey Period Ended Inflation rate in Per cent
Current Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev.
May-17 7.5 6.3 4.0 8.1 7.3 4.2 9.2 8.5 4.3
Nov-17 7.7 6.3 4.1 8.4 7.5 4.2 8.9 8.6 4.6
Dec-17 7.9 6.7 4.2 8.4 7.5 4.3 8.9 8.5 4.8
Mar-18 8.2 7.2 4.0 8.6 7.8 4.1 8.9 8.6 4.7
May-18 8.7 7.9 4.3 9.4 8.7 4.4 9.7 9.9 5.1

Table 5: Factors that Explain the Total Variability
Survey Period Ended Current Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
May-17 City, Gender, Category City, Category City, Category
Nov-17 City, Category, Age-Group City, Category City, Category
Dec-17 City, Category, Age-Group, Gender City, Category, Age-Group City, Category
Mar-18 City, Age-Group, Gender City, Category, Age-Group, Gender City, Category
May-18 City, Category, Age-Group City, Category City, Gender, Category

Table 6:  Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations: May 2018
  Current Three Months Ahead One Year Ahead
Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev. Mean Median Std. Dev.
Overall 8.7 7.9 4.3 9.4 8.7 4.4 9.7 9.9 5.1
Gender-wise
Male 8.7 7.9 4.4 9.3 8.7 4.5 9.4 9.4 5.2
Female 8.7 7.9 4.2 9.5 8.8 4.3 10.0 10.2 4.9
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees 8.3 7.2 4.3 8.8 7.7 4.4 9.1 8.3 5.0
Other Employees 8.7 7.8 4.4 9.3 8.7 4.5 9.7 9.6 5.1
Self Employed 8.9 8.4 4.4 9.5 9.0 4.5 9.5 10.0 5.3
Homemakers 8.8 8.0 4.2 9.5 8.9 4.3 10.0 10.2 4.9
Retired Persons 8.9 8.1 4.7 9.7 9.3 4.8 9.6 9.7 5.4
Daily Workers 8.8 8.3 4.2 9.4 9.0 4.3 9.9 10.3 4.9
Other category 8.0 6.8 3.7 8.6 7.7 3.9 9.0 8.8 4.6
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years 7.9 6.9 4.0 8.6 7.9 4.1 9.2 9.1 4.8
25 to 30 years 8.3 7.7 4.0 9.0 8.5 4.1 9.5 9.7 4.8
30 to 35 years 8.7 8.0 4.2 9.4 8.7 4.4 9.8 10.1 5.1
35 to 40 years 8.7 7.9 4.2 9.4 8.9 4.3 9.8 10.1 5.0
40 to 45 years 9.3 8.7 4.5 9.8 9.4 4.5 9.8 10.2 5.3
45 to 50 years 9.3 8.6 4.6 9.8 9.2 4.6 9.8 10.1 5.2
50 to 55 years 9.1 8.3 4.6 9.7 9.2 4.7 9.9 10.1 5.3
55 to 60 years 9.3 8.4 4.4 10.0 9.5 4.6 9.9 9.7 5.2
60 years and above 9.0 8.3 4.5 9.7 9.3 4.6 9.6 10.0 5.3
City-wise
Ahmedabad 9.7 8.9 4.3 10.6 10.2 4.3 10.9 10.5 4.4
Bengaluru 4.2 3.9 1.9 5.2 4.9 2.3 5.3 5.2 2.8
Bhopal 7.4 5.8 4.7 7.9 6.9 4.6 7.6 8.1 5.4
Bhubaneswar 8.4 8.1 3.6 10.0 10.2 3.8 11.8 12.2 3.8
Chennai 10.9 10.5 4.0 12.2 12.6 4.0 13.4 15.4 3.9
Delhi 8.4 7.7 3.9 9.1 8.5 4.1 9.8 9.5 4.4
Guwahati 10.7 10.8 5.1 9.4 9.3 5.2 9.5 9.9 5.7
Hyderabad 7.8 6.9 3.2 8.5 7.9 3.1 9.8 9.0 3.8
Jaipur 9.4 9.3 4.7 9.8 10.2 4.7 9.6 10.4 5.9
Kolkata 9.7 9.6 4.4 10.3 10.2 4.4 10.6 10.4 4.7
Lucknow 8.5 8.3 3.2 9.6 9.3 3.5 10.2 10.3 4.3
Mumbai 10.1 10.1 4.3 10.6 10.4 4.3 10.4 10.6 5.1
Nagpur 7.6 6.3 3.9 8.0 7.1 4.1 7.3 7.0 5.1
Patna 7.7 6.8 3.7 8.2 7.6 3.9 8.6 8.7 4.6
Thiruvananthapuram 10.0 10.2 4.6 11.2 10.7 4.5 11.5 12.5 5.4
Chandigarh 7.7 6.7 3.9 7.9 7.1 3.9 8.2 7.4 4.3
Ranchi 7.5 6.6 3.5 8.1 7.4 3.7 7.4 7.8 5.0
Raipur 6.2 5.6 2.8 6.8 5.9 3.1 6.3 6.0 4.4

Table 7: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2018
(Number of Respondents)
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 36 1 6 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50
1-<2 0 24 15 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44
2-<3 0 9 123 50 32 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 222
3-<4 1 2 11 114 69 50 6 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 258
4-<5 0 2 10 13 212 74 45 9 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 373
5-<6 0 4 10 16 14 455 130 159 59 6 41 0 2 0 0 2 1 2 901
6-<7 0 1 3 2 3 9 223 91 62 7 11 0 5 0 1 0 1 0 419
7-<8 0 3 2 2 4 8 5 185 105 62 42 2 4 1 0 0 2 0 427
8-<9 0 0 2 2 1 2 1 4 160 73 120 9 14 3 0 1 0 0 392
9-<10 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 2 91 52 35 13 3 8 2 1 3 217
10-<11 0 0 1 1 2 20 3 4 11 10 392 54 159 25 11 114 28 3 838
11-<12 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 39 15 13 6 10 1 0 89
12-<13 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 41 20 24 12 5 0 108
13-<14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 9 5 11 1 0 29
14-<15 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3 21 7 11 3 50
15-<16 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 7 0 1 1 1 84 97 0 197
>=16 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 2 1 14 0 1 0 1 21 612 14 675
Total 37 48 185 210 345 633 418 460 407 253 690 139 257 78 78 264 760 27 5289

Table 8: Cross-tabulation of Current and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2018
(Number of Respondents)
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 33 3 5 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 50
1-<2 10 6 16 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44
2-<3 33 2 64 42 49 20 3 1 1 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 222
3-<4 30 0 2 67 51 60 16 8 3 3 9 0 1 0 0 0 3 5 258
4-<5 51 0 4 6 120 78 47 27 28 3 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 373
5-<6 87 2 4 8 14 249 92 149 79 33 122 5 15 2 0 23 11 6 901
6-<7 36 0 1 2 3 2 98 88 72 32 45 10 14 1 2 3 1 9 419
7-<8 31 1 1 4 0 1 6 112 61 60 70 19 32 7 5 13 2 2 427
8-<9 26 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 87 42 107 32 56 7 4 18 5 2 392
9-<10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 35 24 23 18 13 9 14 4 217
10-<11 48 0 0 3 0 6 2 2 9 4 254 23 100 31 28 156 165 7 838
11-<12 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 22 9 14 7 10 16 3 89
12-<13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 21 4 15 38 22 1 108
13-<14 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 2 8 11 0 29
14-<15 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 15 3 20 3 50
15-<16 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 5 0 3 1 1 46 120 3 197
>=16 43 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 2 2 1 15 582 24 675
Total 466 14 98 145 243 423 267 390 344 246 666 136 278 93 93 342 974 71 5289

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा नियमित अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीति दबाव पर उपयोगी दिशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और अन्य आर्थिक संकेतकों के लिए पूरक होता है । सर्वेक्षण में उल्लिखित मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं उत्तरदाताओं द्वारा दिए गए उत्तरों पर आधारित है और वे स्वयं की खपत प्रतिमान को प्रतिबिंबित करती हैं। अतः, इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति के आधिकारिक उपायों के लिए बेंचमार्क के रूप में नहीं माना जाना चाहिए।


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