प्रकाशन

विनिर्माण क्षेत्र का औद्योगिक परिदृश्य सर्वेक्षण-चौथी तिमाही (क्यू-4):2017-18

जनवरी-मार्च 2018 में किए गए औद्योगिक परिदृश्य सर्वेक्षण (आइओएश) के 81 वें चक्र के परिणाम रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा आज घोषित जारी किए गए। इस सर्वेक्षण में क्यू-4:2017-18 के लिए भारतीय विनिर्माण क्षेत्र में कारोबार की भावनाओं के गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और क्यू-1:2018-191 के लिए प्रत्याशाओं को सम्मिलित किया गया है। सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में 1250 कंपनियों से प्रत्युत्तर प्राप्त हुए हैं।

1. प्रमुख विशेषताएं क्यू-4:2017-18 के लिए:

1.1 क्यू-4:2017-18 के लिए मांग की परिस्थितियों को लेकर उत्तरदाताओं में आशावादिता साफ नज़र आई जो उत्पादन, ऑर्डर बुक, क्षमता उपभोग, आयात, निर्यात और रोजगार जैसे सभी प्रमुख मानदंडों के उनके मूल्यांकन में परिलक्षित हुआ है।

1.2 उत्तरदाताओं को समग्र रूप से वित्तीय स्थितियों में भी सुधार नज़र आया जिसके पीछे वित्त की सुलभता, विशेष रूप से आंतरिक जमा की उपलब्धता, जिसने उच्च लागत को दरकिनार कर दिया था, के बारे में उनकी सकारात्मक भावनाएं थीं ।

1.3 कच्चे माल की लागत के निरंतर दबाव और साथ ही अपर्याप्त मूल्य निर्धारण क्षमता के चलते सैंपल कंपनियों के लाभ मार्जिन में भी गिरावट आई।

1.4 समग्र रूप से भारतीय विनिर्माण के क्षेत्र में कारोबारी संभावनाओं में सुधार परिलक्षित हुआ है जो कारोबार प्रत्याशाओं के सूचकांक (बीईआइ)2 में भी देखा जा सकता है। क्यू-3:2017-18 में 109.8 था जो क्यू-4:2017-18 में बढ़कर 112.4 पर था।

2. क्यू-1: 2018-19 के लिए प्रत्याशाएं

2.1 पिछली दो तिमाहियों में आशातीत मांग स्थितियों में क्यू-1: 2018-19 में कमी दिखाई दी जो निर्यात और आयात के सूचकांको को छोड़कर शेष सभी सूचकांको पर मलिन होती दिखी।

2.2 क्यू-1:2018-19 के लिए वित्त की उपलब्धता की भावनाओं में पहले जो आशावादिता थी उसमें कमी पाई गई।

2.3 क्यू-1:2018-19 में माल की कीमतों का दबाव(कच्चा माल और पूंजी दोनों) और मंद होती मांग लाभ मार्जिन में कमी की ओर ले जा सकते हैं।

2.4 उत्तरदाताओं में से लगभग 10 प्रतिशत के द्वारा अपने उत्पादों का बिक्री मूल्य बढ़ाना संभावित है।

2.5 बीईआइ (प्रत्याशा) क्यू-1:2017-18 में 115.8 था जो क्यू-1:2018-19 में घटकर 114.6 हो गया है।

Summary Table
Net response3 (in %) comparison over previous quarter
Parameters Assessment period Expectation period
Q3:2017-18 Q4:2017-18 Q4:2017-18 Q1:2018-19
Production 22.1 27.3 34.1 29.5
Order Books 19.2 24.5 30.3 28.4
Pending Orders 9.5 10.3 5.7 7.6
Capacity Utilisation 11.3 14.8 19.5 17.9
Exports 7.8 12.5 16.6 18.6
Imports 9.1 11.0 13.5 13.8
Employment 8.4 9.4 11.7 11.1
Financial Situation (Overall) 17.1 22.4 28.6 28.0
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals) 13.8 14.7 21.4 18.2
Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources) 14.0 11.9 16.5 14.6
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) 4.0 3.4 6.6 4.3
Cost of Finance -3.1 -10.3 -4.1 -12.2
Cost of Raw Materials -42.7 -49.5 -34.0 -39.0
Selling Price 4.5 6.7 7.9 10.4
Profit Margin -10.0 -9.9 0.1 -0.7
Overall Business Situation 23.9 30.2 36.1 36.9
Salary 27.2 26.6 22.9 35.0

Table 1: Assessment & Expectation for Production
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response# Increase Decrease No change Net response#
Q4:2016-17 1244 35.8 17.8 46.4 18.0 41.1 13.3 45.6 27.8
Q1:2017-18 1250 34.5 18.5 47.0 16.0 41.6 11.7 46.7 29.9
Q2:2017-18 1141 34.9 18.5 46.6 16.4 42.2 12.0 45.8 30.2
Q3:2017-18 1299 36.8 14.7 48.5 22.1 43.4 9.1 47.5 34.3
Q4:2017-18 1250 40.7 13.4 45.9 27.3 42.5 8.4 49.7 34.1
Q1:2018-19           40.4 11.0 48.6 29.5
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion and any value less than zero indicates contraction.

Table 2: Assessment & Expectation for Order Books
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 34.8 19.2 46.0 15.6 35.1 14.2 50.7 20.9
Q1:2017-18 1250 32.7 19.0 48.3 13.7 39.5 11.5 49.0 28.0
Q2:2017-18 1141 31.8 19.7 48.5 12.1 39.7 11.7 48.6 28.0
Q3:2017-18 1299 35.4 16.2 48.4 19.2 39.6 9.6 50.8 29.9
Q4:2017-18 1250 38.9 14.4 46.7 24.5 40.5 10.2 49.3 30.3
Q1:2018-19           38.8 10.4 50.8 28.4
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 3: Assessment & Expectation for Pending Orders
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Below Normal Above Normal Normal Net response Below Normal Above Normal Normal Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 18.1 5.1 76.8 13.0 15.3 5.0 79.7 10.3
Q1:2017-18 1250 17.0 5.7 77.3 11.3 13.4 4.9 81.8 8.5
Q2:2017-18 1141 17.9 4.2 77.9 13.7 12.5 6.5 81.0 6.0
Q3:2017-18 1299 16.2 6.7 77.1 9.5 11.4 4.7 83.9 6.7
Q4:2017-18 1250 14.8 4.5 80.7 10.3 12.5 6.8 80.7 5.7
Q1:2018-19           12.6 4.9 82.5 7.6
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 4: Assessment & Expectation for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 25.9 15.7 58.4 10.2 27.6 11.2 61.2 16.4
Q1:2017-18 1250 22.5 15.4 62.1 7.1 28.1 10.9 61.0 17.2
Q2:2017-18 1141 22.9 15.8 61.3 7.1 27.6 11.3 61.1 16.3
Q3:2017-18 1299 23.9 12.7 63.4 11.3 28.8 8.0 63.2 20.8
Q4:2017-18 1250 27.4 12.6 60.0 14.8 28.4 8.9 62.7 19.5
Q1:2018-19           27.8 9.8 62.4 17.9
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 5: Assessment & Expectation for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response Above Normal Below Normal Normal Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 9.3 16.1 74.6 -6.8 10.6 12.9 76.5 -2.3
Q1:2017-18 1250 8.4 15.1 76.5 -6.7 9.9 12.2 77.9 -2.3
Q2:2017-18 1141 9.7 15.6 74.7 -6.0 9.7 10.8 79.5 -1.1
Q3:2017-18 1299 10.3 14.1 75.6 -3.8 11.4 9.6 79.0 1.8
Q4:2017-18 1250 12.6 13.5 73.9 -0.9 13.0 10.7 76.3 2.3
Q1:2018-19           13.0 10.6 76.5 2.4
‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 6: Assessment & Expectation for Assessment of Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
More than adequate Less than adequate Adequate Net response More than adequate Less than adequate Adequate Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 14.1 7.1 78.8 7.0 11.9 7.4 80.7 4.5
Q1:2017-18 1250 12.3 7.4 80.3 4.9 13.3 6.7 79.9 6.6
Q2:2017-18 1141 10.4 7.4 82.2 3.0 12.2 6.6 81.2 5.6
Q3:2017-18 1299 11.8 7.1 81.1 4.7 11.1 6.5 82.4 4.6
Q4:2017-18 1250 12.2 6.3 81.5 5.9 12.9 6.9 80.2 6.0
Q1:2018-19           13.0 6.0 81.0 7.0
‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 7: Assessment & Expectation for Exports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 24.3 17.7 58.0 6.6 25.3 13.2 61.5 12.1
Q1:2017-18 1250 22.2 18.8 59.0 3.4 26.5 11.3 62.2 15.2
Q2:2017-18 1141 24.2 15.4 60.4 8.8 27.9 11.6 60.5 16.3
Q3:2017-18 1299 22.5 14.7 62.8 7.8 27.6 8.6 63.8 19.0
Q4:2017-18 1250 26.3 13.8 59.9 12.5 25.4 8.8 65.8 16.6
Q1:2018-19           28.4 9.8 61.8 18.6
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 8: Assessment & Expectation for Imports
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 17.5 10.7 71.8 6.8 17.7 9.3 73.1 8.4
Q1:2017-18 1250 17.4 10.3 72.3 7.1 17.3 7.2 75.5 10.1
Q2:2017-18 1141 17.1 8.2 74.7 8.9 18.6 7.9 73.5 10.7
Q3:2017-18 1299 18.2 9.1 72.7 9.1 17.8 5.0 77.2 12.8
Q4:2017-18 1250 19.8 8.7 71.5 11.0 19.7 6.2 74.1 13.5
Q1:2018-19           19.6 5.8 74.7 13.8
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 9: Assessment & Expectation for level of Raw Materials Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Below average Above average Average Net response Below average Above average Average Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 6.9 12.4 80.7 -5.5 6.8 9.0 84.2 -2.2
Q1:2017-18 1250 6.7 12.2 81.1 -5.5 6.1 8.7 85.2 -2.6
Q2:2017-18 1141 6.2 13.1 80.7 -6.9 6.1 10.7 83.2 -4.6
Q3:2017-18 1299 6.0 14.6 79.4 -8.6 4.3 10.4 85.4 -6.1
Q4:2017-18 1250 5.9 14.0 80.1 -8.1 6.0 11.5 82.5 -5.5
Q1:2018-19           5.7 10.9 83.5 -5.2
‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 10: Assessment & Expectation for level of Finished Goods Inventory
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Below average Above average Average Net response Below average Above average Average Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 7.3 16.6 76.1 -9.3 6.5 11.6 81.9 -5.1
Q1:2017-18 1250 6.8 14.2 79.0 -7.5 6.4 10.7 82.8 -4.3
Q2:2017-18 1141 7.1 15.9 77.0 -8.8 6.0 11.6 82.4 -5.6
Q3:2017-18 1299 6.9 14.5 78.6 -7.6 6.2 10.0 83.8 -3.8
Q4:2017-18 1250 6.5 13.3 80.2 -6.8 6.5 10.9 82.6 -4.4
Q1:2018-19           5.8 10.4 83.9 -4.6
‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 15.9 9.3 74.8 6.6 12.1 6.9 81.0 5.2
Q1:2017-18 1250 14.6 9.2 76.2 5.4 15.9 6.6 77.5 9.3
Q2:2017-18 1141 15.5 8.2 76.3 7.3 15.2 6.5 78.3 8.7
Q3:2017-18 1299 15.8 7.4 76.8 8.4 15.8 5.3 78.9 10.4
Q4:2017-18 1250 17.5 8.1 74.4 9.4 17.0 5.3 77.7 11.7
Q1:2018-19           17.7 6.6 75.7 11.1
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 12: Assessment & Expectation for Overall Financial Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 30.6 13.6 55.8 17.0 34.1 9.5 56.4 24.6
Q1:2017-18 1250 30.9 11.8 57.3 19.1 37.9 7.0 55.1 30.9
Q2:2017-18 1141 29.0 13.2 57.8 15.8 35.6 7.7 56.6 27.9
Q3:2017-18 1299 28.6 11.4 60.0 17.2 35.3 6.6 58.1 28.7
Q4:2017-18 1250 31.9 9.5 58.6 22.4 35.2 6.6 58.2 28.6
Q1:2018-19           34.5 6.5 59.0 28.0
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 13: Assessment & Expectation for Working Capital Finance Requirement
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 30.2 5.6 64.2 24.6 29.2 5.3 65.5 23.9
Q1:2017-18 1250 29.3 5.7 65.0 23.6 29.4 5.1 65.5 24.3
Q2:2017-18 1141 29.7 6.3 64.0 23.4 29.4 5.7 65.0 23.7
Q3:2017-18 1299 34.4 5.0 60.6 29.4 30.5 4.1 65.4 26.4
Q4:2017-18 1250 35.5 5.3 59.2 30.1 32.4 3.6 64.0 28.8
Q1:2018-19           30.8 5.3 63.9 25.4
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 14: Assessment & Expectation for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 25.6 10.3 64.1 15.3 25.4 8.0 66.6 17.4
Q1:2017-18 1250 23.5 9.5 67.0 14.1 27.5 6.2 66.3 21.3
Q2:2017-18 1141 23.2 9.5 67.3 13.7 26.8 6.4 66.9 20.4
Q3:2017-18 1299 22.2 8.4 69.4 13.8 25.8 5.6 68.6 20.2
Q4:2017-18 1250 23.7 8.9 67.4 14.7 26.6 5.2 68.2 21.4
Q1:2018-19           25.1 6.9 67.9 18.2
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 15: Assessment & Expectation for Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 21.3 7.6 71.1 13.7 22.5 5.6 71.9 16.9
Q1:2017-18 1250 21.0 6.1 72.9 14.9 24.8 4.9 70.3 19.9
Q2:2017-18 1141 19.8 6.1 74.1 13.8 21.5 4.6 73.9 17.0
Q3:2017-18 1299 19.8 5.8 74.4 14.0 18.6 4.5 77.0 14.1
Q4:2017-18 1250 18.8 7.0 74.2 11.9 20.9 4.4 74.7 16.5
Q1:2018-19           20.9 6.4 72.7 14.6
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 16: Assessment & Expectation for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable)
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Improve Worsen No change Net response Improve Worsen No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 8.1 3.3 88.6 4.8 10.0 3.5 86.5 6.5
Q1:2017-18 1250 9.5 3.7 86.8 5.8 9.8 2.8 87.4 7.0
Q2:2017-18 1141 8.0 3.0 89.0 5.0 10.9 3.9 85.2 7.0
Q3:2017-18 1299 7.9 3.9 88.2 4.0 7.2 3.0 89.8 4.1
Q4:2017-18 1250 8.0 4.6 87.4 3.4 9.2 2.6 88.2 6.6
Q1:2018-19           8.6 4.3 87.1 4.3
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 17: Assessment & Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Decrease Increase No change Net response Decrease Increase No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 15.8 16.7 67.5 -0.9 14.5 14.8 70.8 -0.3
Q1:2017-18 1250 13.6 14.8 71.6 -1.2 12.9 15.4 71.7 -2.5
Q2:2017-18 1141 14.0 14.5 71.5 -0.5 10.9 14.7 74.5 -3.8
Q3:2017-18 1299 11.6 14.5 73.9 -3.1 11.9 14.1 74.0 -2.2
Q4:2017-18 1250 18.1 7.9 74.0 -10.3 9.8 13.9 76.3 -4.1
Q1:2018-19           18.7 6.4 74.9 -12.2
‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 18: Assessment & Expectation for Cost of Raw Materials
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Decrease Increase No change Net response Decrease Increase No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 3.5 51.4 45.1 -47.9 5.1 39.4 55.6 -34.3
Q1:2017-18 1250 5.1 47.2 47.7 -42.1 4.1 42.0 54.0 -37.9
Q2:2017-18 1141 5.0 46.8 48.2 -41.8 4.0 40.4 55.6 -36.5
Q3:2017-18 1299 5.2 47.9 46.9 -42.7 5.7 37.6 56.7 -31.9
Q4:2017-18 1250 3.3 52.8 43.9 -49.5 4.3 38.3 57.4 -34.0
Q1:2018-19           3.7 42.7 53.6 -39.0
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 19: Assessment & Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 21.4 13.0 65.6 8.4 16.8 10.9 72.3 5.9
Q1:2017-18 1250 20.1 15.1 64.8 5.0 21.6 9.1 69.3 12.5
Q2:2017-18 1141 16.1 16.2 67.7 -0.1 18.9 11.0 70.2 7.9
Q3:2017-18 1299 17.7 13.2 69.1 4.5 17.5 10.6 71.9 7.0
Q4:2017-18 1250 19.3 12.6 68.1 6.7 17.4 9.5 73.1 7.9
Q1:2018-19           19.2 8.9 71.9 10.4
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 20: Assessment & Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 16.7 27.8 55.5 -11.1 18.5 21.3 60.2 -2.8
Q1:2017-18 1250 15.7 28.2 56.1 -12.5 20.3 19.2 60.4 1.1
Q2:2017-18 1141 14.5 28.5 57.0 -14.0 20.3 20.0 59.7 0.3
Q3:2017-18 1299 15.4 25.4 59.2 -10.0 19.6 17.8 62.5 1.8
Q4:2017-18 1250 16.2 26.1 57.7 -9.9 18.8 18.7 62.5 0.1
Q1:2018-19           18.0 18.7 63.3 -0.7
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 21: Assessment & Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Better Worsen No change Net response Better Worsen No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 36.3 14.3 49.4 22.0 39.4 11.5 49.1 27.9
Q1:2017-18 1250 34.4 13.0 52.6 21.4 43.6 7.6 48.8 36.0
Q2:2017-18 1141 31.7 14.4 53.9 17.3 42.7 9.0 48.4 33.7
Q3:2017-18 1299 35.1 11.2 53.7 23.9 42.9 6.0 51.1 36.9
Q4:2017-18 1250 39.2 9.0 51.8 30.2 42.5 6.4 51.2 36.1
Q1:2018-19           42.7 5.8 51.5 36.9
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 22: Assessment & Expectation for Salary/Other Remuneration
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Total response Assessment Expectation
Increase Decrease No change Net response Increase Decrease No change Net response
Q4:2016-17 1244 30.0 2.7 67.3 27.3 25.0 3.3 71.8 21.7
Q1:2017-18 1250 42.1 2.7 55.2 39.4 38.8 2.2 59.0 36.6
Q2:2017-18 1141 36.7 2.2 61.1 34.5 34.5 2.5 63.0 32.0
Q3:2017-18 1299 29.4 2.2 68.4 27.2 25.9 2.0 72.1 23.9
Q4:2017-18 1250 28.8 2.2 69.0 26.6 25.2 2.3 72.5 22.9
Q1:2018-19           36.8 1.8 61.3 35.0
‘Increase in Salary / other remuneration’ is optimistic.Footnotes ‘@’ and ‘#’ given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table 23: Business Expectations Index (BEI)
Quarter BEI-Assessment Quarter BEI-Expectation Quarter
Q4:2016-17 106.0 111.1
Q1:2017-18 105.4 114.2
Q2:2017-18 103.7 113.3
Q3:2017-18 109.8 115.0
Q4:2017-18 112.4 115.8
Q1:2018-19   114.6

1 सर्वेक्षण में प्राप्त प्रत्युत्तर उत्तरदाताओं के हैं और इन्हें रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा अनिवार्यतः साझा नहीं किया जाता। चक्र 80 (क्यू 3-2017-18) के सर्वेक्षण परिणाम भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक की वेब साइट पर 18 जनवरी 2018 को जारी किए गए हैं।

2 बिजनेस इंडीकेटर इंडेक्स (बीईआइ) एक सम्मिश्र सूचकांक है जिसकी गणना नौ बिजनेस इंडीकेटरों के भारांकित शुद्ध प्रत्युत्तर(विभिन्न उद्योग समूहों के जीवीए का हिस्सा) के रूप में की जाती है। बीईआइ की गणना के लिए स्वीकार किए गए नौ सूचकांक हैः (1)समग्र कारोबार की स्थितियां; (2) उत्पादन; (3) ऑर्डर बुक्स; (4) कच्चे माल की सूची; (5) तैयार माल की सूची; (6) लाभ मार्जिन; (7) रोज़गार; (8) निर्यात; और (9) क्षमता उपभोग। इससे हमें प्रत्येक तिमाही के कारोबार की झलक देखने को मिलती है। बीईआइ में 0 और 200 मूल्यों को लिया गया है और 100 निम्नतन सीमा है जो विस्तार को संकुचन से विलग करती है।

3 Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism i.e., NR = (I – D); where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/Equal’; I+D+E=100.  For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism.


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