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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने दिसम्बर 2018 चक्र के मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम 5,828 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित है।

विशेष:

i. नवम्बर 2018 चक्र के संदर्भ में आगामी तीन माह में और आगे के एक वर्ष के दौरान सामान्य कीमतों में वृद्धि की अपेक्षा करनेवाले उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में बड़ी गिरावट आई । ऐसी ही प्रवृत्ति अधिकतर उत्पाद समूहों, विशेषकर खाद्य और गैर खाद्य पदार्थो, में पाई गई (तालिका 1a और 1b)।

ii. उत्तरदाताओं ने भविष्य की कीमतों में बदलाव की दर के संबंध में भी अपनी अपेक्षाओं को कम किया (तालिका 1a और 1b)।

iii. नवम्बर 2018 चक्र के मुक़ाबले आगे के तीन महीनों और आगे के एक वर्ष की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में मात्रात्मक रूप में क्रमश: 80 और 130 आधार अंकों की गिरावट आई (चार्ट 1, तालिका 2)

iv. उत्तरदाताओं के विभिन्न समूहों के लिए मात्रात्मक अपेक्षाओं में गिरावट देखी गई (तालिका 2)।

टिप्पणी: कृपया समय शृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फाइल देखें।.

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Round Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Options: General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.6 83.8 80.4 0.92 77.9 0.91 72.9 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 49.8 50.1 49.1 1.15 47.4 1.12 46.2 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 24.6 26.4 27.6 1.00 25.6 1.00 23.3 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 7.3 3.7 0.38 4.9 0.59 3.4 0.39
No change in prices 17.4 14.6 17.4 0.88 19.2 0.87 21.2 0.98
Decline in prices 2.0 1.6 2.2 0.31 2.9 0.33 5.8 0.46
Options: Food Product                
Prices will increase 78.1 81.4 79.5 0.89 77.2 0.89 70.7 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 45.8 47.8 48.9 1.12 46.4 1.03 42.7 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 23.4 24.8 24.5 0.91 23.6 0.91 22.4 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 8.9 8.7 6.1 0.48 7.3 0.63 5.7 0.48
No change in prices 15.5 13.3 15.5 0.82 16.9 0.81 17.2 0.79
Decline in prices 6.4 5.3 4.9 0.40 5.9 0.46 12.0 0.65
Options: Non-Food Product                
Prices will increase 73.3 78.2 78.9 0.87 75.8 0.90 67.6 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 41.2 44.5 47.5 1.11 45.2 1.07 40.8 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 23.3 24.4 25.3 0.91 24.1 0.94 21.6 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 8.8 9.3 6.1 0.48 6.5 0.61 5.3 0.47
No change in prices 21.9 17.7 17.1 0.81 18.5 0.79 20.5 0.85
Decline in prices 4.8 4.1 4.0 0.38 5.8 0.48 11.9 0.63
Options: Household Durables                
Prices will increase 60.0 58.7 56.6 1.05 57.9 1.06 56.8 1.08
Price increase more than current rate 35.0 32.6 32.4 1.05 33.8 1.03 34.8 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 19.1 19.5 0.80 18.9 0.80 17.9 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 6.4 7.1 4.7 0.41 5.2 0.50 4.1 0.39
No change in prices 28.8 30.9 30.8 0.98 29.7 0.98 24.8 0.91
Decline in prices 11.3 10.4 12.5 0.66 12.4 0.66 18.4 0.77
Options: Housing Prices                
Prices will increase 69.5 71.6 67.1 0.92 68.7 0.96 69.1 1.03
Price increase more than current rate 45.9 45.3 45.2 1.02 44.5 1.05 46.5 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 18.0 19.9 17.9 0.78 19.0 0.83 18.2 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 6.4 4.0 0.40 5.2 0.51 4.5 0.41
No change in prices 21.0 20.7 24.1 0.87 23.7 0.88 22.2 0.94
Decline in prices 9.5 7.7 8.8 0.59 7.6 0.54 8.6 0.57
Options: Cost of Services                
Prices will increase 71.5 70.8 67.7 1.04 68.2 0.99 65.7 1.10
Price increase more than current rate 41.4 40.8 41.8 1.15 40.4 1.06 40.2 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 23.2 22.8 21.0 0.89 22.4 0.86 21.2 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 6.8 7.3 5.0 0.43 5.3 0.48 4.3 0.41
No change in prices 25.6 26.5 29.6 1.01 28.8 0.97 28.2 1.02
Decline in prices 3.0 2.6 2.7 0.33 3.0 0.35 6.1 0.45
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses for the September, November and December 2018 rounds. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Round Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Options: General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 92.7 91.6 88.3 0.77 89.7 0.65 83.8 0.82
Price increase more than current rate 63.0 59.8 59.7 1.15 60.0 1.11 57.5 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 23.9 25.8 25.3 0.97 26.4 0.97 23.3 1.00
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 6.0 3.3 0.35 3.4 0.43 3.0 0.37
No change in prices 5.3 6.5 9.1 0.69 7.6 0.57 11.3 0.73
Decline in prices 2.0 1.9 2.6 0.32 2.7 0.33 4.9 0.43
Options: Food Product                
Prices will increase 85.0 85.1 84.8 0.78 85.4 0.73 80.0 0.82
Price increase more than current rate 52.1 51.4 52.5 1.16 52.3 1.14 50.6 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 24.9 26.5 27.0 0.96 27.5 0.96 24.7 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 8.1 7.1 5.3 0.45 5.7 0.51 4.7 0.43
No change in prices 10.4 9.7 9.7 0.64 9.4 0.60 12.1 0.68
Decline in prices 4.6 5.3 5.5 0.45 5.2 0.45 7.9 0.52
Options: Non-Food Product                
Prices will increase 80.5 83.3 82.3 0.79 82.4 0.78 76.4 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 48.8 49.1 51.0 1.18 51.6 1.10 47.5 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 23.7 26.6 26.1 0.91 25.2 0.90 24.2 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 7.9 7.6 5.2 0.44 5.6 0.50 4.7 0.43
No change in prices 15.4 12.7 13.1 0.70 12.7 0.68 15.8 0.78
Decline in prices 4.2 4.0 4.6 0.40 4.9 0.43 7.7 0.54
Options: Household Durables                
Prices will increase 68.8 70.6 67.5 0.97 70.1 0.98 66.9 1.02
Price increase more than current rate 42.3 41.6 40.7 1.10 43.0 1.10 42.0 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 19.8 21.8 22.0 0.83 22.0 0.88 20.4 0.84
Price increase less than current rate 6.7 7.2 4.8 0.42 5.1 0.47 4.5 0.40
No change in prices 21.7 21.2 22.6 0.84 20.4 0.85 20.1 0.91
Decline in prices 9.5 8.2 10.0 0.58 9.6 0.61 13.0 0.69
Options: Housing Prices                
Prices will increase 78.4 81.0 77.9 0.89 80.6 0.79 79.6 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 53.3 53.0 52.9 1.08 53.8 1.04 55.9 1.00
Price increase similar to current rate 19.2 21.5 21.0 0.87 22.5 0.91 19.8 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.9 6.5 4.0 0.38 4.3 0.44 3.9 0.39
No change in prices 14.0 13.3 15.1 0.74 13.3 0.68 13.7 0.74
Decline in prices 7.7 5.7 7.0 0.52 6.1 0.50 6.7 0.50
Options: Cost of Services                
Prices will increase 82.8 84.1 82.0 0.81 83.3 0.75 77.9 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 50.5 49.5 49.7 1.18 52.2 1.11 49.0 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 24.3 26.6 27.3 0.96 25.7 0.92 24.1 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 8.0 8.0 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.48 4.8 0.44
No change in prices 14.2 13.7 15.6 0.76 13.5 0.68 17.1 0.82
Decline in prices 3.0 2.2 2.4 0.29 3.1 0.34 5.0 0.44
3. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses for the September, November and December 2018 rounds. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
4. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: December 2018
  Current Three months ahead One year ahead
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.3 0.11 7.1 0.18 9.1 0.11 8.2 0.15 8.6 0.13 8.5 0.17
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.4 0.14 7.1 0.20 9.1 0.14 8.1 0.21 8.6 0.17 8.2 0.22
Female 8.5 0.14 7.4 0.25 9.3 0.14 8.6 0.19 9.0 0.18 9.2 0.31
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.1 0.54 7.2 0.73 9.0 0.62 8.1 0.79 7.8 0.67 7.6 0.73
Other Employees 8.2 0.19 6.9 0.25 8.9 0.20 7.8 0.24 8.5 0.23 8.1 0.27
Self Employed 8.7 0.21 7.6 0.30 9.2 0.21 8.5 0.31 8.4 0.26 8.3 0.31
Homemaker 8.4 0.16 7.3 0.26 9.2 0.16 8.6 0.21 8.9 0.22 9.1 0.34
Retired Persons 8.9 0.36 7.8 0.43 9.6 0.41 8.9 0.52 9.0 0.43 9.0 0.57
Daily Workers 8.6 0.22 7.2 0.45 9.5 0.23 8.7 0.32 9.1 0.28 9.4 0.50
Other category 8.0 0.22 6.9 0.28 8.7 0.23 7.8 0.26 8.7 0.27 8.3 0.32
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.8 0.19 6.5 0.26 8.5 0.19 7.7 0.22 8.5 0.23 8.3 0.22
25 to 30 years 8.2 0.18 6.9 0.28 9.1 0.19 8.4 0.27 8.8 0.23 8.8 0.34
30 to 35 years 8.4 0.20 7.0 0.29 9.1 0.21 8.0 0.24 8.9 0.25 8.8 0.39
35 to 40 years 8.5 0.21 7.1 0.32 9.3 0.21 8.4 0.32 8.9 0.25 8.7 0.47
40 to 45 years 9.0 0.25 7.8 0.44 9.6 0.26 8.9 0.42 8.8 0.31 8.8 0.45
45 to 50 years 8.6 0.25 7.5 0.41 9.2 0.24 8.7 0.31 8.5 0.30 8.7 0.45
50 to 55 years 9.2 0.31 8.3 0.58 9.9 0.32 9.1 0.54 8.9 0.39 9.2 0.60
55 to 60 years 8.7 0.35 7.1 0.56 9.5 0.37 8.5 0.42 8.7 0.40 8.4 0.65
60 years and above 9.0 0.29 8.0 0.37 9.7 0.28 9.1 0.49 9.0 0.36 9.0 0.56
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 8.6 0.39 7.9 0.61 9.9 0.35 9.0 0.64 9.2 0.35 8.7 0.38
Bengaluru 6.0 0.31 5.3 0.12 7.6 0.32 7.1 0.48 8.5 0.35 8.4 0.63
Bhopal 7.8 0.66 6.1 0.59 8.0 0.63 6.9 0.85 6.5 0.61 5.5 1.26
Bhubaneswar 6.1 0.50 5.3 0.26 7.0 0.58 6.2 0.59 7.2 1.25 7.1 0.89
Chennai 9.0 0.36 8.7 0.68 10.1 0.39 9.9 0.61 11.4 0.43 11.0 0.70
Delhi 9.2 0.27 8.9 0.64 9.6 0.28 9.4 0.59 8.4 0.34 8.3 0.57
Guwahati 5.8 0.36 5.5 0.22 5.9 0.45 5.7 0.34 4.6 0.55 4.5 1.07
Hyderabad 9.1 0.54 7.2 0.92 9.9 0.53 8.7 1.05 9.8 0.56 9.6 1.16
Jaipur 6.4 0.28 5.9 0.20 6.4 0.28 6.0 0.22 4.2 0.34 3.6 1.68
Kolkata 9.5 0.37 8.4 0.82 10.2 0.38 9.3 0.78 10.4 0.42 10.1 0.52
Lucknow 8.8 0.46 8.4 0.49 9.6 0.46 9.4 0.56 9.7 0.69 10.5 0.47
Mumbai 8.5 0.26 7.6 0.37 9.1 0.26 8.4 0.39 8.0 0.30 8.0 0.42
Nagpur 7.7 0.48 6.3 0.65 8.1 0.50 7.0 0.76 6.6 0.68 6.2 0.90
Patna 7.3 0.38 6.8 0.62 7.7 0.40 7.5 0.50 7.0 0.47 6.8 0.69
Thiruvananthapuram 5.6 0.38 5.0 0.44 6.7 0.45 5.8 0.61 7.5 0.70 6.8 1.17
Chandigarh 8.7 1.02 8.5 1.36 7.8 0.63 7.5 1.12 7.8 0.86 7.7 1.07
Ranchi 10.1 0.63 9.4 0.74 10.7 0.51 10.6 0.49 10.5 0.69 11.6 1.29
Raipur 7.3 0.74 5.8 0.45 7.0 0.90 5.8 0.64 4.7 1.39 2.0 1.73
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses for the December 2018 round.

Table 3: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Dec-17 64.9 64.1 55.5 58.4 63.8
Jun-18 65.6 64.7 53.8 60.0 63.7
Sep-18 64.4 65.3 52.8 58.6 64.3
Nov-18 65.6 66.8 56.5 61.4 66.2
Dec-18 62.9 64.0 55.3 62.4 64.3
One Year Ahead
Dec-17 70.1 69.0 58.8 65.1 70.5
Jun-18 71.9 71.4 60.9 67.4 71.9
Sep-18 72.2 71.5 60.0 66.5 71.4
Nov-18 73.5 72.3 62.7 67.7 73.2
Dec-18 72.5 71.7 62.5 70.3 72.9
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 4(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: December 2018
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 33 0 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 42
1-<2 5 35 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63
2-<3 4 14 105 50 26 15 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 219
3-<4 1 5 18 166 82 78 12 5 3 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 374
4-<5 2 0 9 26 212 86 77 25 13 1 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 457
5-<6 2 1 10 44 46 587 177 208 114 20 114 1 1 1 0 7 2 4 1339
6-<7 0 0 1 3 11 19 201 114 63 9 16 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 442
7-<8 0 0 1 4 3 18 15 180 83 55 33 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 406
8-<9 0 0 1 3 3 4 7 6 153 58 90 5 11 1 0 1 2 0 345
9-<10 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 1 4 80 39 15 11 1 1 3 2 0 162
10-<11 2 0 0 0 1 24 4 8 23 11 407 46 151 27 9 124 36 4 877
11-<12 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 3 32 14 12 4 6 3 0 80
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 7 2 37 12 7 16 6 0 92
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7 7 9 7 0 32
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9 5 16 0 33
15-<16 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 13 0 3 1 0 69 70 2 164
>=16 1 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 0 23 1 1 0 1 21 639 6 701
Total 51 57 164 302 387 845 498 552 464 235 757 110 238 65 39 263 785 16 5828
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 4(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: December 2018
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 30 3 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 42
1-<2 16 16 9 13 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63
2-<3 42 0 47 35 54 19 8 2 1 0 6 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 219
3-<4 65 0 3 67 46 87 51 22 10 7 12 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 374
4-<5 99 0 0 1 102 61 77 45 26 8 27 2 4 2 0 2 0 1 457
5-<6 217 0 0 7 17 315 101 200 137 37 245 6 11 2 1 30 13 0 1339
6-<7 68 0 0 2 2 5 111 56 97 33 42 4 10 2 1 6 3 0 442
7-<8 58 0 0 1 2 3 6 102 54 55 80 9 15 2 5 9 5 0 406
8-<9 52 1 1 0 2 2 6 6 90 29 79 12 32 8 3 14 7 1 345
9-<10 33 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3 40 25 18 13 9 2 13 3 0 162
10-<11 120 0 0 0 0 9 0 4 7 11 256 24 104 29 21 167 122 3 877
11-<12 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 17 7 9 10 13 11 0 80
12-<13 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 21 7 9 14 23 1 92
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 3 13 8 0 32
14-<15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 4 17 0 33
15-<16 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 43 84 0 164
>=16 108 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 2 0 14 566 4 701
Total 970 20 61 127 233 507 362 440 428 223 786 95 221 75 59 345 865 11 5828
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा नियमित अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और अन्य आर्थिक संकेतकों का अनुपूरक होता है। सर्वेक्षण में उल्लिखित मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं उत्तरदाताओं द्वारा दिए गए उत्तरों पर आधारित है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करती हैं। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति के आधिकारिक उपायों के लिए बेंचमार्क के रूप में नहीं माना जाना चाहिए।

2 सर्वेक्षण पर तकनीकी सलाहकार समिति (टी.ए.सी.एस) द्वारा अनुमोदन के अनुसार, सर्वेक्षण के सितंबर 2018 के दौर से कोटा सैमपलिंग के स्थान पर टू-स्टेज प्रॉबबिलिटि सैमपलिंग स्कीम लागू की गई है। फलस्वरूप, सर्वेक्षण के परिणामों में परिवर्तन, संबंधी तालिकाओं के फुटनोट में बताए गए हैं। इसके अलावा, समग्र प्रतिदर्श आमाप को 6,000 पर रखते हुए, जनगणना 2011 के अनुसार प्रत्येक शहर के परिवारों की संख्या के अनुपात में शहरवार प्रतिदर्श आमाप संशोधित किया गया था।

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