The Reserve Bank of India today released the August 2012 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes six special articles: (i) Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2011-12, (ii) India’s External Debt as at the end of March 2012, (iii) Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: April-June 2012 (Round 58), (iv) Quarterly Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey: January-March 2012 (Round 17), (v) Inflation Expectations Survey of Households: June 2012 (Round 28), (vi) Consumer Confidence Survey: June 2012 (Round 9). The four survey articles were earlier published as part of the Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments, a document that serves as backdrop to the First Quarter Review of monetary policy 2012-13. The document was released on July 30, 2012 1. Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2011-12 This article provides details on developments in India's balance of payments during January-March 2011-12 (Q4). The disaggregated data on invisibles for the Q4 of 2011-12 along with quarterly data Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2011-12 and annual data for 2009-10 and 2010-11 are also part of this article. 2. India’s External Debt as at the end of March 2012 The article reviews India’s external debt position as at end-March 2012 and presents recent policy measures undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India in the backdrop of subdued capital flows for smooth financing of the current account deficit. The article, among other things, provides details about the currency composition, Government and non-Government components, instrument wise classification and maturity profile of the stock of external debt. Both, the BoP developments and external debt review were released in public domain on June 30, 2012. 3. Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: April-June 2012 (Round 58) This article presents the findings of Industrial Outlook Survey conducted for the April-June 2012 quarter - 58th round in the series. This survey provides an assessment of business situation of companies in manufacturing sector for the quarter April-June 2012, and their expectations for the ensuing quarter July-September 2012. The results for Q1: 2012-13 showed a reversal of the marginal improvement in business sentiments of manufacturing sector observed in Q4: 2011-12. This was also reflected in the outlook of the previous round of the survey. The Business Expectation Index (BEI), a composite indicator based on several business parameters, showed moderation for the assessment (from 114.9 to 107.4) as well as for the expectation quarters (from 116.8 to 114.0). However, the indices remained in growth terrain. (Indices above 100 indicate expansion and below 100 indicate contraction.) 4. Quarterly Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey: January-March 2012 (Round 17) This article, fourth in the series, presents the findings of Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS) conducted for Q4:2011-12. The Survey results indicate an improvement in growth of new orders in Q4:2011-12 over the previous quarter. The year-on-year growth was, however, lower than that observed in the same quarter of previous year. Capacity utilisation level improved in Q4:2011-12 over the previous quarter (partly reflecting seasonality) and was close to the peak level observed in the corresponding quarter of previous year. Finished goods inventory to sales ratio moderated in Q4:2011-12 over the previous quarter. This ratio similarly was lower than that observed in Q4:2010-11. 5. Inflation Expectations Survey of Households: June 2012 (Round 28) The findings of 28th round of Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for April-June 2012 quarter, conducted during June 1 to June 10, 2012 are presented in the article. The survey captures inflation expectations of 4,000 urban households across 12 cities for the next three-month period and for the next one-year period. These expectations are based on their individual consumption baskets and hence, should not be considered as predictors of any official measure of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on near-term inflationary pressures and also supplement other economic indicators to get a better indication of future inflation. The survey results are those of the respondents and not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India. According to the survey, the percentage of respondents expecting price rise in next three-month and in next one-year has gone up, mainly influenced by movements in food prices. Perception of the current inflation has gone up by 30 basis points as compared with the previous round. The three-month and one-year ahead inflation expectations are higher than the perceived current inflation rate by 70 and 150 basis points, respectively. 6. Consumer Confidence Survey: June 2012 (Round 9) This article presents the salient findings of the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted in June 2012, the 9th round in the series. The survey covers 5,189 households well spread in six metro cities. It provides an assessment of the consumer sentiments of the respondents based on their perceptions of the general economic conditions and their own financial situation. Based on perceptions of the general economic and own financial situation, the survey captures the households’ confidence in the current and expected economic conditions, household circumstances, employment conditions, current and future spending and prices. The survey results reflect perceptions of the respondents and not of the Reserve Bank of India. According to the survey, households perceive the current economic conditions and conditions for the next one year to deteriorate in terms of net response. About half of the respondents, however, continue to feel that the current and future economic conditions are favourable. Though majority of respondents have perceived household circumstances to be better, the proportion of respondents reporting worsening household circumstances has increased which led to decline in net response on household circumstances. The net response on current income has declined, whereas the same relating to future income has marginally increased. The net response on current spending has decreased. About half of the respondents reported ‘not particularly worried’ about the employment prospect leading to an improvement in net response. Overall the current situation index has dropped from 115 to 107, while future expectations index remained at around 115 as in the last quarter. Alpana Killawala
Chief General Manager Press Release : 2012-2013/239 |