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Date : Oct 01, 2007
Survey of Professional Forecasters: Results of the First Round (Pilot) (Q2:2007-08)

Annex

Table A.1 : Annual Forecasts for 2007-08
  Key Macroeconomic Indicators Annual Forecasts for 2007-08
Mean Median Max Min
1 Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (in per cent) 8.7 8.8 9.3 7.7
a Agriculture & Allied Activities 3.4 3.4 4.5 2.5
b Industry 9.4 9.5 10.1 8.5
c Services 10.2 10.1 11.0 8.8
2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) 6.3 5.9 8.2 5.7
3 Gross Domestic Saving (per cent of GDP at current market price) 34.4 34.2 36.8 32.4
          of which Private Corporate Sector 9.0 9.0 10.0 7.5
4 Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 35.3 35.5 39.2 33.0
5 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 30.8 31.0 31.5 30.0
6 Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) 20.1 20.0 22.0 18.0
7 Bank Credit (growth rate in per cent) 23.1 23.0 25.4 20.0
8 Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) 6.0 6.2 6.5 5.5
9 Central Government Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.1
10 Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* 30.3 33.0 35.0 23.0
11 Repo (end period) 7.50 7.75 8.00 6.00
12 Reverse Repo (end period) 6.02 6.00 7.75 5.50
13 CRR (end period) 7.14 7.50 8.00 4.50
14 USD/INR (RBI reference rate-end period) 39.4 39.3 41.3 38.0
15 T-Bill 91 days Yield (per cent-end period) 7.0 6.9 7.5 6.5
16 10 year Govt. Securities Yield (per cent-end period) 7.8 7.8 8.4 7.3
17 Overall BoP (in US $ bn.) 44.2 40.9 75.7 27.8
18 Export (in US $ bn.) 148.4 148.1 153.8 145.0
  Export (growth rate in percent) 17.1 16.5 21.0 15.0
19 Import (in US $ bn.) 235.3 234.3 249.6 224.0
  Import (Growth rate in percent) 23.3 23.0 30.0 16.7
20 Trade Balance (US $ bn) -87.0 -87.8 -74.7 -102.2
21 Invisible Balance (US $ bn) 68.8 68.4 80.0 62.0
*For all listed companies in BSE

Table A.2 : Annual Forecasts for 2008-09
  Key Macroeconomic Indicators Annual Forecasts for 2008-09
Mean Median Max Min
1 Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (in per cent) 8.4 8.4 9.6 7.0
a Agriculture & Allied Activities 2.9 3.0 4.0 2.0
b Industry 9.0 8.8 10.5 7.6
c Services 9.8 9.8 11.5 8.0
2 Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) 6.2 5.8 8.5 5.5
3 Gross Domestic Saving (per cent of GDP at current market price) 35.0 34.7 38.6 32.4
          of which Private Corporate Sector 9.0 9.2 10.5 7.3
4 Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 36.2 36.0 43.7 31.3
5 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 31.7 31.9 32.4 31.0
6 Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) 18.7 18.0 21.0 17.0
7 Bank Credit (growth rate in per cent) 21.9 20.9 27.1 18.0
8 Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) 5.8 6.0 6.6 5.0
9 Central Government Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.0
10 Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* 27.0 27.0 35.0 19.0
11 Repo (end period) 7.39 7.50 8.00 5.75
12 Reverse Repo (end period) 5.94 6.00 7.00 5.25
13 CRR (end period) 7.18 7.00 8.50 6.00
14 USD/INR (RBI reference rate-end period) 37.8 37.5 41.0 35.6
15 T-Bill 91 days Yield (per cent-end period) 6.6 6.5 7.3 5.9
16 10 year Govt. Securities Yield (per cent-end period) 7.3 7.5 7.7 6.5
17 Overall BoP (in US $ bn.) 38.4 32.6 60.4 23.5
18 Export (in US $ bn.) 172.1 171.4 184.5 161.2
  Export (growth rate in percent) 16.0 15.5 20.0 10.0
19 Import (in US $ bn.) 275.5 272.4 304.5 255.0
  Import (Growth rate in percent) 17.6 14.0 27.0 10.9
20 Trade Balance (US $ bn) -103.4 -100.5 -84.4 -135.0
21 Invisible Balance (US $ bn) 81.3 80.8 101.0 69.0
*For all listed companies in BSE

Table A.3: Quarterly Forecasts Q2:2007-08 to Q1:2008-09
Key Macroeconomic Indicators Quarterly Forecasts
2007-08:Q2 2007-08:Q3
Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (per cent) 8.8 8.8 9.2 8.4 8.6 8.5 9.3 8.0
                 Agriculture & Allied Activities 3.1 3.0 5.2 2.3 3.1 3.0 4.6 2.0
                 Industry 9.2 9.3 10.1 8.1 9.2 9.1 11.0 7.9
                 Services 10.2 10.2 10.6 9.7 10.4 10.2 12.1 9.6
IIP growth rate (per cent) 9.2 9.3 9.6 8.6 9.8 9.9 11.5 8.5
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) 6.2 6.2 6.5 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 5.8
Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 35.5 35.5 35.6 35.4 36.0 36.0 36.0 35.9
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 31.0 31.1 31.3 30.6 30.9 31.1 32.3 29.3
Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* 28.5 28.5 33.0 24.0 24.5 24.5 30.0 19.0
USD/INR (RBI reference rate- end period) - - - - 39.6 39.5 40.5 38.5
Repo Rate (end period) - - - - 7.72 7.75 7.75 7.50
Reverse Repo Rate (end period) - - - - 5.98 6.00 6.00 5.75
CRR (end period) - - - - 7.33 7.50 7.75 7.00
BSE INDEX (end period) - - - - 19000 19000 20000 18000
Export (US $ bn.) 37.1 37.7 37.9 35.0 36.0 35.2 40.0 33.5
Import (US $ bn.) 58.2 58.7 59.5 55.7 59.6 60.4 61.3 56.1
Trade Balance (US $ bn.) -21.1 -20.8 -18.2 -24.5 -23.6 -24.2 -20.0 -26.1
*For all listed companies in BSE.

A.3 (contd.)
Key Macroeconomic Indicators Quarterly Forecasts
2007-08:Q4 2008-09:Q1
Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (per cent) 8.4 8.4 9.6 7.5 8.6 8.8 9.4 7.1
                 Agriculture & Allied Activities 2.8 2.3 5.5 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.0 2.9
                 Industry 8.7 9.0 9.8 6.9 9.2 9.4 11.0 7.4
                 Services 10.1 10.0 11.2 9.4 10.0 10.3 10.8 8.0
IIP growth rate (per cent) 9.0 8.9 10.2 8.4 9.5 9.5 11.5 8.0
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) 6.1 6.3 6.4 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.8
Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 35.8 35.8 36.2 35.4 36.3 36.3 36.6 36.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) 31.5 31.2 33.0 30.4 31.9 32.2 33.0 30.5
Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* 24.5 24.5 32.0 17.0 31.5 31.5 38.0 25.0
USD/INR (RBI reference rate- end period) 39.1 39.0 40.5 38.0 38.8 38.8 40.0 37.2
Repo Rate (end period) 7.65 7.75 8.00 7.25 7.61 7.75 8.00 7.25
Reverse Repo Rate (end period) 5.90 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.92 6.00 6.00 5.50
CRR (end period) 7.34 7.50 8.00 6.75 7.39 7.50 8.00 6.75
BSE INDEX (end period) 19400 19400 22000 16800 19750 19750 22000 17500
Export (US $ bn.) 39.7 39.6 41.0 38.5 39.4 39.3 42.9 36.0
Import (US $ bn.) 59.4 59.0 64.0 55.5 62.6 62.0 71.4 55.0
Trade Balance (US $ bn.) -19.7 -19.7 -14.5 -25.0 -23.2 -24.7 -15.0 -28.5
*For all listed companies in BSE

Table A.4: Forecasts for WPI and CPI-IW
  WPI WPI-MP CPI-IW
  Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min Mean Median Max Min
Q2:2007-08 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.1 6.9 6.9 7.2 6.4
Q3:2007-08 3.9 4.0 4.4 3.2 4.2 4.2 5.4 3.3 6.3 6.4 7.9 5.5
Q4:2007-08 4.2 4.3 5.0 3.5 4.5 4.6 5.9 3.2 6.9 6.6 9.4 5.5
Q1:2008-09 4.5 4.7 4.9 3.1 4.6 4.4 5.9 2.7 7.0 6.2 9.2 5.6

Table A.5: Annual Average Percentage Change
Annual average percentage change over the next five years Annual average percentage change over the next ten years
  Real GDP WPI Inflation CPI-IW Inflation   Real GDP WPI Inflation CPI-IW Inflation
Minimum 8.0 4.3 5.0 Minimum 7.5 3.5 5.0
Lower Quantile 8.1 4.5 5.5 Lower Quantile 8.3 4.0 5.0
Median 8.5 4.6 5.5 Median 8.8 4.5 5.0
Upper Quantile 8.9 5.0 6.0 Upper Quantile 9.2 4.5 5.3
Maximum 9.5 7.0 7.0 Maximum 10.0 5.0 5.5
S.D. 0.6 0.8 0.5 S.D. 0.8 0.5 0.6
N 14 14 14 N 14 14 14
Missing 1 1 2 Missing 1 2 2

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