The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. The responses for the 67th round of the survey were received during November 12- December 1, 20202, wherein twenty nine panellists participated. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts (Annex 1-7), along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output -
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 8.5 per cent in 2020-21 but it is expected to recover next year, when it is expected to grow by 9.5 per cent; the growth projections for both the years were revised upwards from the last round (Table 1). -
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is assessed to contract by 9.7 per cent during 2020-21, followed by an expansion of 9.9 per cent in the next year. -
Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to record a decline of 19.1 per cent in 2020-21 and then to grow by 12.2 per cent in 2021-22. -
Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth lying between (-)8.5-(-)8.1 per cent in 2020-21 (Chart 1). For 2021-22, highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth lying in the range of above 9.0 per cent (Chart 2). -
Despite expansion in agricultural activities, real gross value added (GVA) is expected to decline by 8.2 per cent in 2020-21; it is likely to record 9.1 per cent growth next year, supported by improvements in industrial and services activities. Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components | (in per cent) | | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | Real GDP growth rate | -8.5 (+0.6) | 9.5 (+1.3) | a. Real PFCE growth rate | -9.7 (+1.3) | 9.9 (+1.4) | b. Real GFCF growth rate | -19.1 (+1.9) | 12.2 (+2.2) | Nominal PFCE growth rate | -6.9 (0.0) | 13.3 (+1.9) | Real GVA Growth | -8.2 (+0.2) | 9.1 (+0.9) | a. Agriculture and Allied Activities | 3.5 (-0.2) | 3.2 (0.0) | b. Industry | -10.5 (+2.5) | 11.2 (+1.5) | c. Services | -9.7 (0.0) | 9.5 (+0.4) | Gross Saving Rate [per cent of gross national disposable income] (GNDI)] | 27.1 (+1.1) | 27.1 (+0.1) | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate [per cent of GDP at current market prices] | 26.2 (+0.8) | 27.4 (-0.3) | Note: In all the tables, the figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round. |
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions is given in Annex 6. Note: Detailed probability distribution is given in Annex 6. Inflation -
Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected at 6.6 per cent in Q3:2020-21, but moderate thereafter to 4.5 per cent by Q2:2021-22; the inflation projections have been revised up for all the four quarters when compared with the previous survey round (Table 2). -
CPI inflation excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light, is expected to rise to 5.4 per cent during Q3:2020-21 and moderate thereafter to 4.3 per cent by Q2:2021-22. Table 2: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation | (in per cent) | | Q3:2020-21 | Q4:2020-21 | Q1:2021-22 | Q2:2021-22 | CPI Combined (General) | 6.6 (+1.7) | 5.4 (+1.2) | 5.0 (+1.1) | 4.5 (+0.7) | CPI Combined excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light | 5.4 (-0.2) | 5.3 (+0.1) | 4.8 (+0.1) | 4.3 (+0.1) | WPI All Commodities | 1.3 (+1.2) | 1.3 (+1.0) | 4.1 (+1.6) | 2.6 (+0.5) | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | 1.8 (+0.5) | 1.8 (+0.6) | 2.6 (+0.6) | 2.6 (+0.7) | - Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to CPI inflation lying in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent in Q3:2020-21; 5.0-5.4 per cent in Q4:2020-21; 4.5-4.9 per cent in Q1:2021-22; and 4.0-4.4 per cent in Q2:2021-22 (Chart 3).
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7. 2. External Sector - Merchandise exports and imports are projected to decline by 11.3 per cent and 23.2 per cent, respectively, during 2020-21 before reverting to growth terrain in 2021-22 (Table 3).
Table 3: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables | | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | Merchandise Exports in US $ terms (annual growth in per cent) | -11.3 (+3.4) | 12.5 (+2.3) | Merchandise Imports in US $ terms (annual growth in per cent) | -23.2 (-0.5) | 23.2 (+2.6) | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 1.2 (+0.7) | -0.4 (+0.2) | The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF): Abhishek Gupta (Bloomberg Economics); Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited); Barclays Bank PLC; Charu Chanana (Continuum Economics); CRISIL Ltd.; Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Limited); Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings and Research); NCAER; Rupa Rege Nitsure (L&T Finance Holdings); Sameer Narang (Bank of Baroda); Shailesh Kejariwal (Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt ltd); Siddharth Kothari (Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd); TAC Economics; Tirthankar Patnaik (National Stock Exchange) and YES Bank. The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen others SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. | Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -8.3 | -8.5 | -2.2 | -12.5 | -9.0 | -7.8 | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -10.2 | -9.7 | -6.1 | -20.0 | -11.1 | -8.1 | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -19.5 | -19.1 | -10.2 | -31.0 | -23.6 | -15.5 | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -6.5 | -6.9 | -3.2 | -10.4 | -8.0 | -4.3 | 3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 26.4 | 26.2 | 27.2 | 26.0 | 26.1 | 26.5 | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -8.2 | -8.2 | -4.8 | -12.2 | -8.8 | -7.3 | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -11.3 | -10.5 | -5.0 | -20.7 | -13.0 | -8.6 | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -9.7 | -9.7 | -5.0 | -15.0 | -10.8 | -8.5 | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 29.3 | 27.1 | 34.0 | 26.9 | 27.0 | 30.5 | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 7.9 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 12.6 | 12.5 | 15.1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | -11.8 | -11.3 | 3.0 | -31.0 | -14.0 | -9.2 | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | -23.4 | -23.2 | -8.0 | -35.0 | -24.9 | -22.2 | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | 30.0 | 30.7 | 69.5 | -50.0 | 23.9 | 37.6 | 14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | -1.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 90.3 | 90.0 | 129.0 | 55.0 | 78.1 | 105.3 | 16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 6.3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.4 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 10.0 | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.7 | 9.9 | 16.3 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 11.9 | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.5 | 12.2 | 22.1 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.6 | 13.3 | 18.0 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 14.5 | 3 | Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 28.0 | 27.4 | 30.1 | 27.0 | 27.1 | 28.2 | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 9.5 | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.6 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 11.0 | 11.2 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.5 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices | 28.4 | 27.1 | 31.6 | 26.5 | 26.8 | 29.3 | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 6.0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 9.8 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.7 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.8 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 17.4 | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 24.1 | 23.2 | 43.5 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -11.2 | -11.5 | 15.5 | -45.0 | -19.9 | 4.3 | 14 | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.5 | -1.5 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 15 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | 49.5 | 50.5 | 73.5 | 2.0 | 41.1 | 62.5 | 16 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 17 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 19 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q3:2020-21 to Q2:2021-22 | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | Q3: 2020-21 | Q4: 2020-21 | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -2.0 | -2.0 | 6.0 | -8.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6.0 | -6.2 | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -2.6 | -3.0 | 4.0 | -7.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 8.0 | -5.6 | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -11.1 | -10.0 | 0.3 | -24.7 | -6.0 | -5.2 | 5.4 | -23.9 | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4.8 | -5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 12.5 | -2.6 | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 24.3 | 24.5 | 26.8 | 21.8 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 28.0 | 21.8 | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -1.8 | -1.7 | 6.0 | -8.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.0 | -6.9 | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.7 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 1.1 | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -2.3 | -1.1 | 5.1 | -15.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -13.4 | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | -4.2 | -4.3 | 2.0 | -9.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 3.0 | -7.2 | 5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 0.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -4.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 15.8 | 0.9 | 6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 76.4 | 75.3 | 83.0 | 70.1 | 79.2 | 79.0 | 88.0 | 71.7 | 7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 103.1 | 104.5 | 110.0 | 89.2 | 109.2 | 109.0 | 122.0 | 96.9 | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | 73.9 | 74.0 | 75.0 | 72.8 | 73.8 | 73.0 | 76.0 | 72.5 | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 43.8 | 44.1 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 48.0 | 42.0 | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | 3.93 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.89 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.75 | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | Q1: 2021-22 | Q2: 2021-22 | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1 | GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 22.5 | 21.0 | 36.9 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 15.1 | 5.7 | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 24.1 | 23.0 | 39.3 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 16.3 | 7.8 | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 33.3 | 31.8 | 79.9 | 5.1 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 30.0 | 0.5 | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 26.9 | 28.8 | 41.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 23.2 | 22.9 | 29.1 | 19.8 | 24.4 | 24.7 | 29.8 | 20.8 | 4 | GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 21.5 | 19.5 | 36.0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 14.9 | 7.0 | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.9 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 2.0 | b | Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 35.1 | 35.0 | 55.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 1.3 | c | Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 21.7 | 19.5 | 39.2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 17.6 | 6.8 | 5 | IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 36.4 | 39.9 | 85.0 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 25.0 | 1.1 | 6 | Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 77.3 | 76.7 | 85.0 | 68.3 | 81.2 | 81.8 | 85.9 | 75.4 | 7 | Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 106.0 | 104.4 | 125.0 | 96.6 | 112.5 | 110.8 | 135.0 | 99.8 | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | 73.8 | 73.5 | 76.3 | 71.4 | 73.8 | 73.5 | 77.0 | 70.3 | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 45.8 | 45.0 | 51.2 | 40.0 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 55.0 | 43.0 | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | 3.79 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 2.75 | 3.87 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 3.00 | Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation | (per cent) | | CPI Combined (General) | CPI Combined excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Q3:2020-21 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | Q4:2020-21 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | Q1:2021-22 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.1 | Q2:2021-22 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.5 | Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation | (per cent) | | WPI All Commodities | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Q3:2020-21 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | Q4:2020-21 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | Q1:2021-22 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | Q2:2021-22 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth | Growth Range | Forecasts for 2020-21 | Forecasts for 2021-22 | 10.0 per cent or more | 0 | 0.18 | 9.5 to 9.9 per cent | 0 | 0.17 | 9.0 to 9.4 per cent | 0 | 0.18 | 8.5 to 8.9 per cent | 0 | 0.15 | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0 | 0.13 | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0 | 0.06 | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0 | 0.10 | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0 | 0.01 | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0 | 0.02 | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0 | 0.00 | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0 | 0.01 | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | -1.5 to -1.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | -2.0 to -1.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | -2.5 to -2.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | -3.0 to -2.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | -3.5 to -3.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | -4.0 to -3.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | -4.5 to -4.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | -5.0 to -4.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | -5.5 to -5.1 per cent | 0.03 | 0 | -6.0 to -5.6 per cent | 0.02 | 0 | -6.5 to -6.1 per cent | 0.07 | 0 | -7.0 to -6.6 per cent | 0.06 | 0 | -7.5 to -7.1 per cent | 0.05 | 0 | -8.0 to -7.6 per cent | 0.13 | 0 | -8.5 to -8.1 per cent | 0.23 | 0 | -9.0 to -8.6 per cent | 0.19 | 0 | -9.5 to -9.1 per cent | 0.06 | 0 | -10.0 to -9.6 per cent | 0.06 | 0 | -10.5 to -10.1 per cent | 0.06 | 0 | -11.0 to -10.5 per cent | 0.01 | 0 | below -11.0 per cent | 0.03 | 0 | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. | Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation | Inflation Range | Forecasts for Q3:2020-21 | Forecasts for Q4:2020-21 | Forecasts for Q1:2021-22 | Forecasts for Q2:2021-22 | 9.0 per cent or above | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.5 to 9.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 to 0.4 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Below -1.0 per cent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index. | |