आज रिजर्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के जनवरी 2022 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 2 से 12 जनवरी, 2022 के दौरान 18 प्रमुख शहरों में किया गया था। इसके परिणाम2 5,985 शहरी परिवारों3 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Jan-21 |
Jul-21 |
Sep-21 |
Nov-21 |
Jan-22 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
83.7 |
0.89 |
85.9 |
0.79 |
84.9 |
0.77 |
89.3 |
0.64 |
85.6 |
0.69 |
Price increase more than current rate |
56.0 |
1.26 |
63.0 |
1.15 |
61.5 |
1.14 |
67.0 |
1.17 |
61.5 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.4 |
0.95 |
19.6 |
0.90 |
19.9 |
0.88 |
19.1 |
0.94 |
20.4 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.3 |
0.53 |
3.3 |
0.38 |
3.5 |
0.40 |
3.3 |
0.42 |
3.7 |
0.40 |
No changes in prices |
14.3 |
0.86 |
11.3 |
0.70 |
12.9 |
0.72 |
8.2 |
0.55 |
12.0 |
0.64 |
Decline in prices |
1.9 |
0.30 |
2.8 |
0.40 |
2.2 |
0.29 |
2.5 |
0.30 |
2.4 |
0.30 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.9 |
0.95 |
84.0 |
0.81 |
84.8 |
0.74 |
86.0 |
0.70 |
83.7 |
0.71 |
Price increase more than current rate |
54.2 |
1.16 |
61.0 |
1.15 |
61.4 |
1.08 |
63.7 |
1.17 |
61.0 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.0 |
0.95 |
17.6 |
0.89 |
18.2 |
0.80 |
17.0 |
0.82 |
17.0 |
0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.7 |
0.57 |
5.4 |
0.53 |
5.3 |
0.50 |
5.2 |
0.46 |
5.7 |
0.47 |
No changes in prices |
13.0 |
0.82 |
10.5 |
0.65 |
10.8 |
0.64 |
8.2 |
0.52 |
10.5 |
0.58 |
Decline in prices |
6.1 |
0.54 |
5.5 |
0.53 |
4.4 |
0.40 |
5.8 |
0.46 |
5.7 |
0.45 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
79.3 |
0.98 |
82.6 |
0.85 |
82.1 |
0.82 |
86.3 |
0.67 |
80.5 |
0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate |
51.6 |
1.20 |
59.0 |
1.17 |
58.8 |
1.15 |
62.7 |
1.17 |
55.5 |
1.02 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.9 |
0.90 |
18.8 |
0.92 |
18.2 |
0.83 |
18.7 |
0.86 |
19.3 |
0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.7 |
0.56 |
4.7 |
0.50 |
5.1 |
0.45 |
4.9 |
0.48 |
5.6 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
16.9 |
0.91 |
12.3 |
0.73 |
13.6 |
0.73 |
8.9 |
0.54 |
14.1 |
0.65 |
Decline in prices |
3.8 |
0.40 |
5.1 |
0.51 |
4.3 |
0.42 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
5.4 |
0.43 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
64.3 |
1.11 |
65.6 |
1.10 |
67.3 |
0.97 |
68.6 |
0.90 |
69.9 |
0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.5 |
1.15 |
45.1 |
1.19 |
46.5 |
1.09 |
47.8 |
1.11 |
48.7 |
1.03 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.8 |
0.77 |
16.6 |
0.86 |
16.2 |
0.78 |
15.9 |
0.77 |
16.2 |
0.70 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.0 |
0.49 |
4.0 |
0.43 |
4.6 |
0.43 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
5.1 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
27.2 |
1.05 |
25.3 |
0.99 |
25.0 |
0.87 |
22.7 |
0.82 |
23.1 |
0.83 |
Decline in prices |
8.4 |
0.58 |
9.1 |
0.66 |
7.7 |
0.53 |
8.7 |
0.54 |
6.9 |
0.45 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
66.1 |
1.11 |
64.7 |
1.13 |
68.7 |
0.95 |
74.3 |
0.94 |
71.6 |
0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.1 |
1.20 |
45.9 |
1.21 |
49.6 |
1.07 |
55.1 |
1.16 |
51.3 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.2 |
0.79 |
14.5 |
0.79 |
15.1 |
0.77 |
15.5 |
0.78 |
16.0 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.8 |
0.49 |
4.2 |
0.46 |
4.0 |
0.42 |
3.7 |
0.39 |
4.2 |
0.42 |
No changes in prices |
24.6 |
1.02 |
23.7 |
0.99 |
21.9 |
0.85 |
19.0 |
0.82 |
21.3 |
0.81 |
Decline in prices |
9.3 |
0.66 |
11.6 |
0.74 |
9.4 |
0.59 |
6.7 |
0.51 |
7.1 |
0.48 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
68.8 |
1.06 |
74.3 |
1.02 |
73.3 |
0.93 |
76.5 |
0.87 |
74.3 |
0.84 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.7 |
1.15 |
52.5 |
1.19 |
52.1 |
1.10 |
53.9 |
1.20 |
51.7 |
1.06 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.5 |
0.81 |
17.3 |
0.83 |
16.8 |
0.75 |
17.6 |
0.80 |
18.0 |
0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.6 |
0.50 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
4.4 |
0.41 |
5.0 |
0.49 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
27.4 |
1.02 |
22.0 |
0.95 |
23.7 |
0.90 |
20.2 |
0.81 |
22.4 |
0.79 |
Decline in prices |
3.8 |
0.47 |
3.7 |
0.43 |
3.0 |
0.33 |
3.2 |
0.34 |
3.3 |
0.34 |
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Jan-21 |
Jul-21 |
Sep-21 |
Nov-21 |
Jan-22 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
88.0 |
0.80 |
86.8 |
0.78 |
87.7 |
0.72 |
90.5 |
0.59 |
89.6 |
0.59 |
Price increase more than current rate |
62.9 |
1.23 |
65.6 |
1.18 |
66.5 |
1.10 |
70.6 |
1.16 |
68.4 |
1.05 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.2 |
0.95 |
18.3 |
0.93 |
18.0 |
0.85 |
16.6 |
0.92 |
18.0 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.9 |
0.43 |
2.9 |
0.38 |
3.3 |
0.36 |
3.3 |
0.39 |
3.3 |
0.39 |
No changes in prices |
9.6 |
0.75 |
10.1 |
0.68 |
9.3 |
0.61 |
6.4 |
0.46 |
7.8 |
0.50 |
Decline in prices |
2.4 |
0.33 |
3.1 |
0.41 |
2.9 |
0.36 |
3.1 |
0.35 |
2.6 |
0.29 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.5 |
0.96 |
80.8 |
0.87 |
81.6 |
0.79 |
84.5 |
0.74 |
83.8 |
0.72 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.0 |
1.21 |
55.9 |
1.18 |
57.4 |
1.12 |
60.3 |
1.21 |
58.3 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.6 |
0.96 |
20.7 |
0.98 |
19.5 |
0.89 |
19.9 |
0.92 |
20.3 |
0.86 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.49 |
4.2 |
0.45 |
4.7 |
0.45 |
4.4 |
0.42 |
5.2 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
13.4 |
0.84 |
12.6 |
0.73 |
11.9 |
0.66 |
9.5 |
0.58 |
11.0 |
0.61 |
Decline in prices |
6.1 |
0.55 |
6.6 |
0.54 |
6.5 |
0.47 |
6.0 |
0.47 |
5.2 |
0.40 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.4 |
0.93 |
80.3 |
0.91 |
81.5 |
0.81 |
85.1 |
0.72 |
83.0 |
0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.8 |
1.22 |
56.8 |
1.21 |
57.9 |
1.13 |
61.8 |
1.20 |
57.6 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.7 |
0.93 |
19.0 |
0.91 |
19.5 |
0.85 |
18.9 |
0.87 |
20.5 |
0.86 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.45 |
4.6 |
0.48 |
4.1 |
0.40 |
4.4 |
0.46 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
15.0 |
0.84 |
13.4 |
0.76 |
13.2 |
0.71 |
9.6 |
0.57 |
12.1 |
0.61 |
Decline in prices |
4.6 |
0.46 |
6.2 |
0.57 |
5.3 |
0.42 |
5.4 |
0.44 |
4.9 |
0.41 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
69.8 |
1.07 |
69.1 |
1.06 |
71.5 |
0.98 |
75.0 |
0.88 |
75.4 |
0.87 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.0 |
1.20 |
47.0 |
1.18 |
49.4 |
1.10 |
52.4 |
1.17 |
52.2 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.9 |
0.81 |
18.3 |
0.88 |
17.5 |
0.83 |
18.1 |
0.86 |
18.6 |
0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.48 |
3.8 |
0.41 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
4.6 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
22.1 |
0.97 |
22.7 |
0.97 |
22.3 |
0.89 |
18.0 |
0.75 |
18.6 |
0.78 |
Decline in prices |
8.1 |
0.63 |
8.2 |
0.62 |
6.2 |
0.47 |
6.9 |
0.48 |
6.0 |
0.44 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
74.8 |
1.05 |
71.8 |
1.08 |
76.5 |
0.87 |
82.4 |
0.78 |
79.4 |
0.79 |
Price increase more than current rate |
49.9 |
1.22 |
50.9 |
1.21 |
55.2 |
1.09 |
60.6 |
1.16 |
57.1 |
1.03 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.2 |
0.91 |
16.6 |
0.87 |
16.8 |
0.81 |
17.8 |
0.86 |
18.0 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.7 |
0.48 |
4.2 |
0.44 |
4.5 |
0.43 |
3.9 |
0.40 |
4.3 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
17.7 |
0.95 |
19.8 |
0.92 |
17.3 |
0.78 |
12.8 |
0.67 |
15.1 |
0.67 |
Decline in prices |
7.5 |
0.61 |
8.4 |
0.68 |
6.2 |
0.47 |
4.8 |
0.41 |
5.6 |
0.44 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
78.5 |
0.98 |
80.9 |
0.88 |
79.8 |
0.85 |
83.6 |
0.73 |
82.0 |
0.75 |
Price increase more than current rate |
51.1 |
1.21 |
55.9 |
1.17 |
56.7 |
1.14 |
59.6 |
1.21 |
57.6 |
1.05 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.9 |
0.96 |
20.5 |
0.91 |
18.8 |
0.85 |
19.0 |
0.89 |
19.7 |
0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.6 |
0.45 |
4.5 |
0.47 |
4.3 |
0.43 |
5.0 |
0.47 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
18.2 |
0.94 |
15.7 |
0.80 |
16.6 |
0.77 |
13.4 |
0.66 |
15.1 |
0.68 |
Decline in prices |
3.3 |
0.41 |
3.4 |
0.42 |
3.6 |
0.38 |
3.1 |
0.34 |
2.9 |
0.31 |
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |