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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के नवंबर 2020 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविद -19 महामारी के चलते, यह सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में अक्टूबर 30 से नवंबर 10, 2020 के दौरान, जहाँ कहीं भी संभव हो सका फ़ील्ड पर साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से, अन्यत्र, टेलीफ़ोनिक साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम 5,897 शहरी परिवारों2 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष :

i. सितंबर 2020 के चक्र की तुलना में वर्तमान अवधि के लिए परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की धारणा में 100 आधार अंकों से तीव्र गिरावट आई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]।

ii. तीन महीने आगे और एक वर्ष आगे के लिए मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएँ क्रमशः 30 और 20 आधार अंकों से कम हो गई, हालांकि वे उच्च स्तर पर बनी रहीं [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]।

iii. अधिक परिवारों को अगले तीन महीने और आगे के एक वर्ष में सामान्य कीमतों में वृद्धि होने की उम्मीद है, लेकिन गैर-खाद्य उत्पादों की कीमतों में वृद्धि होने की उम्मीद करने वाले उत्तरदाताओं के अनुपात में मामूली गिरावट आई [तालिका 1a, तालिका 1b]।

Chrt1

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Nov-19 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.7 0.90 85.3 0.73 83.5 0.92 81.6 0.78 83.3 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 52.4 1.22 56.0 1.02 52.2 1.14 53.9 1.02 55.4 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 23.4 0.96 23.5 0.89 26.0 1.03 22.5 0.84 23.6 0.95
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.55 5.8 0.49 5.3 0.54 5.2 0.46 4.4 0.46
No changes in prices 17.3 0.84 12.4 0.69 14.0 0.84 15.9 0.74 14.2 0.81
Decline in prices 1.9 0.26 2.3 0.32 2.5 0.43 2.5 0.31 2.4 0.32
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.8 0.80 84.6 0.75 82.3 0.86 80.4 0.80 81.5 0.83
Price increase more than current rate 54.8 1.14 58.6 1.00 54.7 1.08 52.6 1.00 54.7 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 21.0 0.85 20.0 0.82 21.9 0.89 21.2 0.81 20.3 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 6.0 0.54 6.0 0.49 5.7 0.47 6.6 0.51 6.5 0.59
No changes in prices 12.3 0.65 10.7 0.64 13.2 0.75 14.3 0.70 11.6 0.67
Decline in prices 5.9 0.48 4.7 0.45 4.5 0.56 5.3 0.46 6.9 0.54
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.3 0.93 76.7 0.88 79.1 0.99 75.8 0.87 74.8 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 48.0 1.14 49.5 0.99 48.3 1.11 47.3 0.99 48.0 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 21.1 0.86 20.8 0.82 24.6 0.98 21.9 0.82 20.3 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 6.1 0.53 6.4 0.50 6.2 0.51 6.6 0.50 6.4 0.57
No changes in prices 20.5 0.83 17.8 0.79 15.2 0.87 19.2 0.80 20.1 0.92
Decline in prices 4.3 0.39 5.5 0.49 5.6 0.59 5.0 0.45 5.2 0.48
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 55.2 1.09 55.1 1.04 57.8 1.14 56.3 1.02 60.3 1.09
Price increase more than current rate 35.4 1.06 33.6 0.96 34.7 1.07 35.0 0.96 38.2 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 15.2 0.73 16.4 0.76 17.6 0.87 15.8 0.74 16.2 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.44 5.1 0.44 5.4 0.48 5.5 0.47 5.8 0.59
No changes in prices 29.1 0.93 29.7 0.94 28.4 1.00 30.7 0.94 27.4 1.00
Decline in prices 15.8 0.73 15.2 0.76 13.8 0.86 13.1 0.69 12.3 0.71
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 68.5 1.09 48.6 1.01 46.9 1.08 51.8 0.98 60.7 1.12
Price increase more than current rate 48.3 1.19 30.2 0.93 28.1 0.98 32.8 0.93 40.4 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 16.4 0.77 13.6 0.69 14.9 0.78 14.4 0.69 15.9 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.41 4.8 0.45 3.9 0.39 4.6 0.43 4.4 0.50
No changes in prices 24.0 0.99 30.3 0.93 29.9 1.03 29.1 0.91 25.9 1.01
Decline in prices 7.4 0.53 21.1 0.83 23.2 0.95 19.1 0.78 13.4 0.84
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 65.8 1.05 68.3 0.97 70.1 1.06 70.3 0.91 70.4 1.02
Price increase more than current rate 43.6 1.14 43.2 0.99 43.3 1.11 45.5 1.01 44.8 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 17.7 0.79 19.3 0.79 21.2 0.92 19.1 0.79 20.3 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.46 5.9 0.46 5.6 0.49 5.7 0.47 5.3 0.50
No changes in prices 29.5 1.01 27.4 0.93 25.7 0.99 25.8 0.88 25.2 0.98
Decline in prices 4.7 0.43 4.4 0.42 4.2 0.52 3.9 0.38 4.4 0.44
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Nov-19 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.1 0.71 85.6 0.73 84.6 0.87 84.8 0.73 86.5 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 64.0 1.25 57.1 1.00 55.9 1.12 59.6 1.00 59.5 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 21.5 0.96 23.8 0.88 24.3 0.93 20.4 0.82 22.9 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 3.6 0.44 4.7 0.43 4.4 0.46 4.7 0.43 4.1 0.44
No changes in prices 8.9 0.64 11.9 0.67 12.9 0.82 12.1 0.67 10.3 0.69
Decline in prices 2.0 0.28 2.5 0.33 2.5 0.35 3.1 0.35 3.2 0.39
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 86.2 0.74 77.3 0.86 75.3 1.00 77.3 0.85 77.7 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 58.9 1.24 46.9 1.01 45.2 1.10 48.3 0.99 48.4 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 22.4 0.90 24.2 0.88 24.1 0.96 22.5 0.82 24.0 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.49 6.3 0.51 6.0 0.50 6.4 0.51 5.4 0.48
No changes in prices 9.4 0.61 15.7 0.74 17.4 0.88 14.8 0.72 14.3 0.82
Decline in prices 4.4 0.39 6.9 0.52 7.3 0.63 7.9 0.55 8.0 0.58
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.0 0.82 73.3 0.92 74.3 1.04 75.7 0.87 75.0 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 53.5 1.23 42.6 0.99 44.0 1.13 47.3 1.00 45.6 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 22.6 0.92 23.9 0.87 24.3 0.92 22.2 0.83 23.5 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.51 6.8 0.51 6.0 0.50 6.1 0.49 5.9 0.55
No changes in prices 15.5 0.72 20.7 0.84 18.7 0.97 18.2 0.78 19.3 0.89
Decline in prices 3.6 0.36 6.0 0.49 7.0 0.71 6.1 0.49 5.8 0.51
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 65.4 1.00 59.6 1.03 62.4 1.14 62.3 0.98 65.0 1.08
Price increase more than current rate 42.7 1.16 34.8 0.99 35.6 1.08 38.8 0.98 39.9 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 18.1 0.80 19.1 0.79 21.1 0.91 18.4 0.77 19.7 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.46 5.7 0.47 5.8 0.51 5.1 0.45 5.4 0.54
No changes in prices 22.5 0.84 28.4 0.93 26.0 1.01 26.5 0.88 24.6 1.01
Decline in prices 12.1 0.62 12.1 0.67 11.6 0.81 11.2 0.64 10.3 0.68
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 80.0 0.92 59.7 1.00 57.4 1.10 63.9 0.95 72.1 1.01
Price increase more than current rate 57.1 1.20 36.9 0.98 34.7 1.10 42.0 0.99 47.8 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 19.1 0.85 17.3 0.77 18.4 0.88 17.4 0.75 19.8 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.41 5.5 0.46 4.3 0.43 4.6 0.43 4.5 0.44
No changes in prices 13.9 0.76 25.1 0.89 26.1 1.01 23.8 0.85 19.2 0.86
Decline in prices 6.1 0.48 15.2 0.73 16.5 0.83 12.2 0.67 8.7 0.65
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 80.9 0.87 74.4 0.91 75.6 1.06 76.8 0.86 77.2 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 53.7 1.23 44.6 0.98 46.1 1.11 48.5 1.01 49.0 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 22.3 0.86 23.1 0.85 23.7 0.90 22.0 0.83 22.2 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.51 6.7 0.50 5.8 0.50 6.3 0.50 6.1 0.55
No changes in prices 15.9 0.77 22.1 0.87 20.5 0.97 19.6 0.81 18.6 0.91
Decline in prices 3.2 0.36 3.5 0.38 3.9 0.57 3.6 0.37 4.2 0.45
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: November 2020
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.5 0.11 8.8 0.18 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.09 9.8 0.13 10.1 0.11
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.7 0.13 9.0 0.30 10.5 0.14 10.1 0.11 9.7 0.16 10.1 0.16
Female 9.4 0.15 8.7 0.24 10.3 0.15 10.1 0.15 9.8 0.19 10.1 0.15
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.4 0.43 8.9 0.78 10.6 0.44 10.2 0.66 9.9 0.50 10.4 0.40
Other Employees 9.6 0.18 9.0 0.36 10.4 0.18 10.2 0.16 9.7 0.22 10.1 0.23
Self Employed 9.8 0.20 9.1 0.43 10.5 0.20 10.2 0.14 9.8 0.24 10.2 0.17
Homemaker 9.2 0.19 8.4 0.23 10.2 0.18 10.0 0.22 9.9 0.20 10.1 0.17
Retired Persons 10.7 0.37 10.4 0.26 11.2 0.38 10.7 0.46 10.0 0.41 10.4 0.52
Daily Workers 9.7 0.26 9.0 0.60 10.3 0.27 10.2 0.27 9.3 0.34 9.6 0.55
Other category 9.2 0.26 8.2 0.36 10.1 0.26 9.6 0.38 9.7 0.29 9.9 0.32
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.9 0.20 7.9 0.23 9.9 0.20 9.3 0.30 9.8 0.24 10.0 0.27
25 to 30 years 9.1 0.18 8.4 0.28 10.0 0.19 9.6 0.42 9.3 0.23 9.4 0.48
30 to 35 years 9.2 0.19 8.6 0.26 10.3 0.19 10.1 0.17 9.8 0.22 10.0 0.28
35 to 40 years 9.6 0.21 9.2 0.49 10.5 0.20 10.2 0.17 10.0 0.23 10.3 0.18
40 to 45 years 9.6 0.22 9.2 0.51 10.5 0.22 10.3 0.13 9.7 0.28 10.1 0.26
45 to 50 years 10.2 0.24 10.0 0.37 10.8 0.24 10.4 0.16 9.7 0.31 10.1 0.32
50 to 55 years 10.0 0.31 9.9 0.51 10.8 0.29 10.5 0.20 10.0 0.34 10.2 0.40
55 to 60 years 9.8 0.34 9.0 0.63 10.6 0.34 10.3 0.27 9.6 0.40 9.8 0.58
60 years and above 10.7 0.30 10.3 0.19 11.1 0.31 10.6 0.30 10.2 0.37 10.7 0.32
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 8.5 0.28 7.8 0.49 9.8 0.28 9.5 0.58 9.4 0.35 9.8 0.54
Bengaluru 7.9 0.39 6.1 0.51 9.6 0.38 8.3 0.48 10.0 0.35 9.7 0.55
Bhopal 8.1 0.76 7.1 1.18 8.5 0.78 7.6 1.16 7.0 0.84 6.7 1.23
Bhubaneswar 9.0 0.74 7.7 1.37 9.6 0.74 8.6 1.27 8.0 0.95 7.1 0.99
Chennai 10.2 0.38 10.3 0.20 11.4 0.33 10.9 0.34 11.2 0.39 11.9 0.82
Delhi 9.3 0.26 8.7 0.33 9.9 0.26 9.6 0.42 9.2 0.33 9.3 0.50
Guwahati 11.3 0.54 10.2 0.83 11.7 0.47 11.2 0.79 11.3 0.66 11.8 0.95
Hyderabad 10.0 0.45 9.6 0.98 11.4 0.43 11.0 0.70 11.2 0.40 11.8 0.82
Jaipur 10.4 0.62 10.1 0.73 10.5 0.68 10.5 0.70 10.0 0.93 10.6 1.17
Kolkata 11.2 0.41 10.6 0.41 11.7 0.41 12.3 1.45 10.6 0.43 10.8 0.99
Lucknow 10.5 0.65 10.3 0.42 10.8 0.71 10.8 0.83 10.1 0.85 10.8 1.38
Mumbai 10.3 0.27 9.5 0.52 11.1 0.27 10.4 0.24 9.3 0.35 9.8 0.55
Nagpur 7.3 0.39 6.9 0.43 8.7 0.44 8.3 0.50 9.3 0.47 9.5 0.59
Patna 9.0 0.86 8.5 0.61 9.6 0.92 8.9 0.82 8.0 1.02 8.0 0.75
Thiruvananthapuram 7.1 0.74 5.5 0.65 8.1 0.71 7.0 1.06 8.4 0.87 7.7 1.36
Chandigarh 9.9 0.63 10.1 0.36 9.8 0.59 10.0 0.38 9.2 0.91 9.7 0.82
Ranchi 7.1 0.48 6.3 0.38 7.6 0.50 7.1 0.49 6.8 0.62 6.8 0.61
Raipur 8.3 0.59 7.4 0.52 9.6 0.62 8.6 0.51 9.1 0.74 8.9 0.51
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Nov-19 9.1 0.10 8.2 0.17 9.8 0.11 9.2 0.23 9.7 0.12 9.9 0.19
May-20 9.6 0.09 9.3 0.28 10.6 0.09 10.4 0.06 9.7 0.12 10.2 0.07
Jul-20 10.0 0.11 9.9 0.21 10.8 0.11 10.5 0.06 9.8 0.14 10.3 0.08
Sep-20 9.9 0.10 9.8 0.25 10.8 0.10 10.4 0.07 9.9 0.12 10.3 0.08
Nov-20 9.5 0.11 8.8 0.18 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.09 9.8 0.13 10.1 0.11
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Nov-19 64.7 65.1 51.0 60.7 63.1
May-20 63.3 59.8 46.5 42.6 57.3
Jul-20 62.8 61.0 49.9 43.6 58.4
Sep-20 62.1 61.0 50.4 45.9 60.5
Nov-20 62.7 63.5 52.4 54.0 60.7
One Year Ahead
Nov-19 73.9 70.9 57.8 69.7 72.3
May-20 62.3 59.5 50.9 50.3 62.3
Jul-20 63.9 64.5 55.2 51.2 65.7
Sep-20 63.0 64.8 55.5 53.6 66.6
Nov-20 66.4 65.9 56.7 62.1 68.9
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2020
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 9 1 2 2 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19
1-<2 3 21 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39
2-<3 2 4 83 43 42 15 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 194
3-<4 0 1 8 90 43 51 15 4 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 220
4-<5 1 1 6 5 132 72 70 13 7 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 312
5-<6 0 1 17 18 16 401 128 197 82 18 91 0 3 1 0 8 2 0 983
6-<7 0 0 1 2 3 11 165 52 76 20 26 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 363
7-<8 0 1 0 3 5 9 4 220 73 53 72 3 8 1 2 4 1 0 459
8-<9 0 1 1 2 3 8 8 7 190 57 146 7 20 2 2 3 8 0 465
9-<10 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 100 39 29 32 4 5 5 3 0 228
10-<11 0 0 2 2 3 30 5 12 10 11 447 60 150 38 11 191 85 0 1057
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 8 9 4 3 0 1 0 27
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 6 1 39 8 24 14 10 0 104
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 8 3 8 4 0 25
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 11 5 10 0 28
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 10 1 5 1 0 91 126 0 240
>=16 0 0 0 3 3 11 3 1 1 0 31 0 2 1 2 25 1048 3 1134
Total 15 31 129 174 251 618 403 510 446 265 879 112 274 69 63 356 1299 3 5897
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: November 2020
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 7 2 3 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 19
1-<2 12 10 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39
2-<3 41 2 37 30 33 32 11 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 194
3-<4 27 0 4 56 26 48 28 10 7 4 4 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 220
4-<5 40 0 3 2 84 49 65 14 24 8 12 0 5 1 0 3 0 2 312
5-<6 133 2 3 6 10 220 99 169 98 28 146 12 13 5 6 19 14 0 983
6-<7 36 0 1 0 4 8 113 45 73 20 30 6 10 4 3 9 1 0 363
7-<8 77 0 0 0 1 6 2 120 52 55 91 9 17 7 4 12 6 0 459
8-<9 58 2 0 0 1 4 5 5 108 49 138 22 38 5 8 10 12 0 465
9-<10 29 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 63 32 26 35 10 8 12 8 0 228
10-<11 126 0 1 1 0 16 1 8 6 8 290 30 111 50 27 219 160 3 1057
11-<12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 7 3 3 6 1 0 27
12-<13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 22 9 16 20 18 0 104
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 4 6 5 0 25
14-<15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 15 0 28
15-<16 28 0 1 0 0 3 1 2 1 0 6 2 1 1 0 57 137 0 240
>=16 164 0 1 0 1 5 1 1 0 1 16 0 2 0 0 23 912 7 1134
Total 801 18 61 100 164 397 326 380 374 236 773 111 262 105 83 401 1292 13 5897
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 यह सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा द्विमासिक अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, उत्तरदाताओं के अपेक्षित निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर परिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।

2 सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर डेटा बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल पर उपलब्ध हैं (वेबलिंक : https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=unitLevelData)।

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