आज भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने नवम्बर 2020 चक्र के उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (CCS)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविद-19 महामारी के चलते यह सर्वेक्षण तेरह बड़े शहरों – अहमदाबाद, बेंगलुरु, भोपाल, चेन्नई, दिल्ली, गुवाहाटी, हैदराबाद, जयपुर, कोलकाता, लखनऊ, मुंबई, पटना और तिरुवनंतपुरम में 30 अक्टूबर – 12 नवम्बर 2020 के बीच, जहां भी संभव हो सका, आमने सामने के साक्षात्कार द्वारा एवं अन्य स्थानों पर टेलीफोनिक साक्षात्कार के द्वारा आयोजित किया गया । इसमें सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और पारिवारिक इकाइयों की आय और व्यय के संबंध में धारणाएं और अपेक्षाएं 5,319 पारिवारिक इकाइयों से प्राप्त किए गए।2
विशेष:
I. एक वर्ष पहले की तुलना में नवंबर 2020 में उपभोक्ता विश्वास काफी कम रहा, जैसा कि वर्तमान स्थिति सूचकांक (CSI)3 में परिलक्षित होता है, हालांकि इसमें पिछले चक्र में सर्वकालिक न्यून दर्ज किया गया था परंतु अब इसमे मामूली सुधार दिखाई दिया (चार्ट 1)।
II. कमजोर आत्मविश्वास सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, मूल्य स्तर और घरेलू आय पर उपभोक्ता भावनाओं के कारण है (तालिका 1, 2, 3 और 5)।
III. एक वर्ष आगे की स्थिति के बारे में परिवार आशावादी बने हुए हैं, जिसके चलते भविष्य की प्रत्याशाओं का सूचकांक (FEI) बढ़त क्षेत्र में 115.9 पर रहा।
नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फाइल देखें।
IV. उत्तरदाताओं ने बढ़ते आवश्यक और समग्र व्यय की सूचना दी, हालांकि विवेकाधीन व्यय संकुचित रहा; आने वाले वर्ष में गैर-आवश्यक व्यय के संकुचन क्षेत्र में रहने की उम्मीद है (तालिका 6, 7 और 8).
Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
30.0 |
18.4 |
51.6 |
-21.6 |
48.9 |
16.5 |
34.7 |
14.2 |
Jan-20 |
27.1 |
18.0 |
54.9 |
-27.8 |
48.8 |
14.3 |
36.9 |
11.9 |
Mar-20 |
28.4 |
19.3 |
52.3 |
-23.9 |
49.8 |
15.6 |
34.7 |
15.1 |
May-20 |
14.4 |
11.2 |
74.4 |
-60.0 |
39.6 |
9.0 |
51.4 |
-11.7 |
Jul-20 |
11.9 |
10.3 |
77.8 |
-65.9 |
44.3 |
13.5 |
42.2 |
2.1 |
Sep-20 |
9.0 |
11.4 |
79.6 |
-70.6 |
50.1 |
15.1 |
34.8 |
15.3 |
Nov-20 |
11.0 |
11.5 |
77.5 |
-66.5 |
50.9 |
13.9 |
35.2 |
15.7 |
Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
24.4 |
18.1 |
57.5 |
-33.1 |
46.3 |
17.7 |
36.0 |
10.3 |
Jan-20 |
24.6 |
17.8 |
57.7 |
-33.1 |
48.4 |
16.3 |
35.4 |
13.0 |
Mar-20 |
25.2 |
19.1 |
55.7 |
-30.5 |
48.8 |
17.1 |
34.1 |
14.7 |
May-20 |
19.2 |
13.4 |
67.4 |
-48.2 |
41.5 |
11.1 |
47.4 |
-5.9 |
Jul-20 |
13.0 |
8.9 |
78.1 |
-65.1 |
48.6 |
13.3 |
38.2 |
10.4 |
Sep-20 |
10.1 |
8.1 |
81.7 |
-71.6 |
54.1 |
14.3 |
31.6 |
22.5 |
Nov-20 |
11.0 |
9.5 |
79.5 |
-68.5 |
52.0 |
14.9 |
33.1 |
18.9 |
Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
86.8 |
10.2 |
2.9 |
-83.9 |
78.0 |
14.1 |
7.9 |
-70.1 |
Jan-20 |
90.6 |
7.6 |
1.9 |
-88.7 |
76.9 |
12.9 |
10.2 |
-66.7 |
Mar-20 |
87.2 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
-84.6 |
78.1 |
14.2 |
7.7 |
-70.4 |
May-20 |
79.1 |
17.5 |
3.4 |
-75.8 |
75.8 |
14.8 |
9.4 |
-66.4 |
Jul-20 |
79.7 |
16.7 |
3.6 |
-76.2 |
71.6 |
18.3 |
10.1 |
-61.5 |
Sep-20 |
82.9 |
14.6 |
2.5 |
-80.4 |
69.5 |
20.5 |
10.0 |
-59.5 |
Nov-20 |
89.7 |
9.0 |
1.4 |
-88.3 |
70.5 |
17.4 |
12.1 |
-58.4 |
Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
77.2 |
17.4 |
5.5 |
-71.7 |
77.3 |
17.3 |
5.4 |
-71.9 |
Jan-20 |
84.9 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
-80.9 |
80.3 |
14.7 |
5.0 |
-75.3 |
Mar-20 |
80.8 |
15.7 |
3.5 |
-77.3 |
75.6 |
20.3 |
4.1 |
-71.5 |
May-20 |
74.8 |
18.6 |
6.6 |
-68.2 |
73.4 |
19.5 |
7.1 |
-66.3 |
Jul-20 |
79.8 |
15.6 |
4.5 |
-75.3 |
76.4 |
18.6 |
5.0 |
-71.4 |
Sep-20 |
83.0 |
13.1 |
3.9 |
-79.1 |
75.9 |
19.6 |
4.6 |
-71.3 |
Nov-20 |
88.3 |
8.9 |
2.8 |
-85.5 |
78.3 |
16.7 |
4.9 |
-73.4 |
*Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
24.1 |
49.2 |
26.7 |
-2.6 |
52.8 |
38.9 |
8.3 |
44.5 |
Jan-20 |
21.9 |
51.2 |
26.9 |
-5.0 |
51.9 |
38.9 |
9.2 |
42.7 |
Mar-20 |
22.7 |
52.4 |
24.9 |
-2.2 |
52.0 |
40.2 |
7.8 |
44.2 |
May-20 |
12.6 |
34.0 |
53.4 |
-40.8 |
39.5 |
39.1 |
21.4 |
18.1 |
Jul-20 |
8.3 |
28.9 |
62.8 |
-54.5 |
43.5 |
39.3 |
17.2 |
26.3 |
Sep-20 |
8.9 |
28.4 |
62.7 |
-53.8 |
53.2 |
36.7 |
10.0 |
43.2 |
Nov-20 |
8.4 |
28.5 |
63.1 |
-54.7 |
51.0 |
38.3 |
10.7 |
40.3 |
Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
73.2 |
23.4 |
3.4 |
69.8 |
77.4 |
19.0 |
3.6 |
73.8 |
Jan-20 |
76.3 |
20.5 |
3.2 |
73.1 |
78.7 |
17.3 |
4.0 |
74.7 |
Mar-20 |
72.6 |
24.0 |
3.4 |
69.2 |
75.8 |
20.7 |
3.5 |
72.3 |
May-20 |
56.1 |
31.0 |
12.9 |
43.2 |
64.3 |
27.0 |
8.7 |
55.6 |
Jul-20 |
48.1 |
34.7 |
17.2 |
30.8 |
60.2 |
29.2 |
10.6 |
49.6 |
Sep-20 |
47.2 |
31.8 |
21.1 |
26.1 |
65.3 |
27.5 |
7.2 |
58.1 |
Nov-20 |
55.6 |
28.5 |
15.9 |
39.7 |
69.1 |
24.9 |
6.1 |
63.0 |
Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
83.6 |
13.6 |
2.7 |
80.9 |
83.0 |
13.9 |
3.1 |
79.9 |
Jan-20 |
85.3 |
12.2 |
2.6 |
82.7 |
83.7 |
12.9 |
3.4 |
80.3 |
Mar-20 |
83.0 |
14.6 |
2.4 |
80.6 |
82.1 |
15.0 |
2.9 |
79.2 |
May-20 |
69.3 |
20.9 |
9.8 |
59.5 |
73.0 |
20.6 |
6.4 |
66.7 |
Jul-20 |
64.0 |
23.9 |
12.1 |
51.9 |
69.4 |
22.9 |
7.7 |
61.7 |
Sep-20 |
61.4 |
23.9 |
14.7 |
46.7 |
71.9 |
22.8 |
5.3 |
66.6 |
Nov-20 |
68.7 |
20.0 |
11.3 |
57.4 |
75.6 |
19.2 |
5.2 |
70.4 |
Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
Nov-19 |
27.5 |
42.4 |
30.1 |
-2.6 |
33.4 |
43.0 |
23.5 |
9.9 |
Jan-20 |
28.0 |
37.3 |
34.6 |
-6.6 |
34.3 |
37.8 |
27.9 |
6.4 |
Mar-20 |
27.7 |
42.0 |
30.3 |
-2.6 |
32.4 |
43.5 |
24.1 |
8.3 |
May-20 |
13.9 |
39.6 |
46.4 |
-32.5 |
22.0 |
42.4 |
35.6 |
-13.6 |
Jul-20 |
9.2 |
29.4 |
61.4 |
-52.2 |
22.2 |
37.9 |
39.9 |
-17.7 |
Sep-20 |
10.7 |
29.5 |
59.8 |
-49.1 |
31.3 |
37.4 |
31.4 |
-0.1 |
Nov-20 |
11.2 |
27.9 |
60.9 |
-49.7 |
28.7 |
37.3 |
34.0 |
-5.3 |
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