आज भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने सितम्बर 2020 चक्र के उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (CCS)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविद-19 महामारी के चलते यह सर्वेक्षण तेरह बड़े शहरों – अहमदाबाद, बेंगलुरु, भोपाल, चेन्नई, दिल्ली, गुवाहाटी, हैदराबाद, जयपुर, कोलकाता, लखनऊ, मुंबई, पटना और तिरुवनंतपुरम में 29 अगस्त – 10 सितम्बर 2020 के बीच टेलीफोनिक साक्षात्कार के द्वारा आयोजित किया गया । इसमें सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और पारिवारिक इकाइयों की आय और व्यय के संबंध में धारणाएं और अपेक्षाएं 5,364 पारिवारिक इकाइयों से प्राप्त किए गए।2
विशेष:
I. पिछले एक वर्ष के दौरान सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति और रोजगार परिदृश्य में उत्तरदाताओं के और खराब आंकलन के चलते वर्तमान स्थिति सूचकांक (CSI)3 ने अपना तीसरा क्रमिक निम्न दर्ज किया (चार्ट 1, तालिका 1 और 2)।
II. हालांकि, एक वर्ष आगे की स्थिति को लेकर परिवार अधिक आश्वस्त थे: भविष्य की प्रत्याशाओं के सूचकांक (FEI) ने लगातार दूसरे सर्वेक्षण चक्र में सुधार किया।
नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फाइल देखें।
III. पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र की तुलना में पिछले एक वर्ष के दौरान अधिक उत्तरदाताओं ने कुल मिलकर और आवश्यक, दोनों खर्चों में कटौती की सूचना दी (तालिका 6, 7 और 8)।
IV. उपभोक्ताओं को आने वाले वर्ष में आर्थिक स्थिति, आय परिदृश्य और रोजगार स्थिति में सुधार की उम्मीद है; हालांकि, निकट भविष्य में विवेकाधीन खर्च कम रहने की उम्मीद है (तालिका 1, 2, 5 और 8).
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
33.5 |
18.6 |
47.9 |
-14.4 |
53.2 |
15.0 |
31.8 |
21.4 |
| Nov-19 |
30.0 |
18.4 |
51.6 |
-21.6 |
48.9 |
16.5 |
34.7 |
14.2 |
| Jan-20 |
27.1 |
18.0 |
54.9 |
-27.8 |
48.8 |
14.3 |
36.9 |
11.9 |
| Mar-20 |
28.4 |
19.3 |
52.3 |
-23.9 |
49.8 |
15.6 |
34.7 |
15.1 |
| May-20 |
14.4 |
11.2 |
74.4 |
-60.0 |
39.6 |
9.0 |
51.4 |
-11.7 |
| Jul-20 |
11.9 |
10.3 |
77.8 |
-65.9 |
44.3 |
13.5 |
42.2 |
2.1 |
| Sep-20 |
9.0 |
11.4 |
79.6 |
-70.6 |
50.1 |
15.1 |
34.8 |
15.3 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
28.0 |
19.5 |
52.5 |
-24.5 |
51.2 |
15.4 |
33.4 |
17.8 |
| Nov-19 |
24.4 |
18.1 |
57.5 |
-33.1 |
46.3 |
17.7 |
36.0 |
10.3 |
| Jan-20 |
24.6 |
17.8 |
57.7 |
-33.1 |
48.4 |
16.3 |
35.4 |
13.0 |
| Mar-20 |
25.2 |
19.1 |
55.7 |
-30.5 |
48.8 |
17.1 |
34.1 |
14.7 |
| May-20 |
19.2 |
13.4 |
67.4 |
-48.2 |
41.5 |
11.1 |
47.4 |
-5.9 |
| Jul-20 |
13.0 |
8.9 |
78.1 |
-65.1 |
48.6 |
13.3 |
38.2 |
10.4 |
| Sep-20 |
10.1 |
8.1 |
81.7 |
-71.6 |
54.1 |
14.3 |
31.6 |
22.5 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
86.1 |
10.6 |
3.3 |
-82.8 |
75.9 |
13.8 |
10.3 |
-65.6 |
| Nov-19 |
86.8 |
10.2 |
2.9 |
-83.9 |
78.0 |
14.1 |
7.9 |
-70.1 |
| Jan-20 |
90.6 |
7.6 |
1.9 |
-88.7 |
76.9 |
12.9 |
10.2 |
-66.7 |
| Mar-20 |
87.2 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
-84.6 |
78.1 |
14.2 |
7.7 |
-70.4 |
| May-20 |
79.1 |
17.5 |
3.4 |
-75.8 |
75.8 |
14.8 |
9.4 |
-66.4 |
| Jul-20 |
79.7 |
16.7 |
3.6 |
-76.2 |
71.6 |
18.3 |
10.1 |
-61.5 |
| Sep-20 |
82.9 |
14.6 |
2.5 |
-80.4 |
69.5 |
20.5 |
10.0 |
-59.5 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
74.2 |
19.5 |
6.3 |
-67.9 |
77.9 |
16.1 |
6.1 |
-71.8 |
| Nov-19 |
77.2 |
17.4 |
5.5 |
-71.7 |
77.3 |
17.3 |
5.4 |
-71.9 |
| Jan-20 |
84.9 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
-80.9 |
80.3 |
14.7 |
5.0 |
-75.3 |
| Mar-20 |
80.8 |
15.7 |
3.5 |
-77.3 |
75.6 |
20.3 |
4.1 |
-71.5 |
| May-20 |
74.8 |
18.6 |
6.6 |
-68.2 |
73.4 |
19.5 |
7.1 |
-66.3 |
| Jul-20 |
79.8 |
15.6 |
4.5 |
-75.3 |
76.4 |
18.6 |
5.0 |
-71.4 |
| Sep-20 |
83.0 |
13.1 |
3.9 |
-79.1 |
75.9 |
19.6 |
4.6 |
-71.3 |
| *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
25.0 |
48.3 |
26.7 |
-1.7 |
53.0 |
37.4 |
9.6 |
43.4 |
| Nov-19 |
24.1 |
49.2 |
26.7 |
-2.6 |
52.8 |
38.9 |
8.3 |
44.5 |
| Jan-20 |
21.9 |
51.2 |
26.9 |
-5.0 |
51.9 |
38.9 |
9.2 |
42.7 |
| Mar-20 |
22.7 |
52.4 |
24.9 |
-2.2 |
52.0 |
40.2 |
7.8 |
44.2 |
| May-20 |
12.6 |
34.0 |
53.4 |
-40.8 |
39.5 |
39.1 |
21.4 |
18.1 |
| Jul-20 |
8.3 |
28.9 |
62.8 |
-54.5 |
43.5 |
39.3 |
17.2 |
26.3 |
| Sep-20 |
8.9 |
28.4 |
62.7 |
-53.8 |
53.2 |
36.7 |
10.0 |
43.2 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
74.1 |
22.0 |
3.8 |
70.3 |
77.0 |
19.0 |
4.0 |
73.0 |
| Nov-19 |
73.2 |
23.4 |
3.4 |
69.8 |
77.4 |
19.0 |
3.6 |
73.8 |
| Jan-20 |
76.3 |
20.5 |
3.2 |
73.1 |
78.7 |
17.3 |
4.0 |
74.7 |
| Mar-20 |
72.6 |
24.0 |
3.4 |
69.2 |
75.8 |
20.7 |
3.5 |
72.3 |
| May-20 |
56.1 |
31.0 |
12.9 |
43.2 |
64.3 |
27.0 |
8.7 |
55.6 |
| Jul-20 |
48.1 |
34.7 |
17.2 |
30.8 |
60.2 |
29.2 |
10.6 |
49.6 |
| Sep-20 |
47.2 |
31.8 |
21.1 |
26.1 |
65.3 |
27.5 |
7.2 |
58.1 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
83.8 |
13.6 |
2.6 |
81.2 |
83.0 |
13.7 |
3.3 |
79.7 |
| Nov-19 |
83.6 |
13.6 |
2.7 |
80.9 |
83.0 |
13.9 |
3.1 |
79.9 |
| Jan-20 |
85.3 |
12.2 |
2.6 |
82.7 |
83.7 |
12.9 |
3.4 |
80.3 |
| Mar-20 |
83.0 |
14.6 |
2.4 |
80.6 |
82.1 |
15.0 |
2.9 |
79.2 |
| May-20 |
69.3 |
20.9 |
9.8 |
59.5 |
73.0 |
20.6 |
6.4 |
66.7 |
| Jul-20 |
64.0 |
23.9 |
12.1 |
51.9 |
69.4 |
22.9 |
7.7 |
61.7 |
| Sep-20 |
61.4 |
23.9 |
14.7 |
46.7 |
71.9 |
22.8 |
5.3 |
66.6 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Sep-19 |
29.9 |
40.0 |
30.1 |
-0.2 |
34.7 |
39.2 |
26.0 |
8.7 |
| Nov-19 |
27.5 |
42.4 |
30.1 |
-2.6 |
33.4 |
43.0 |
23.5 |
9.9 |
| Jan-20 |
28.0 |
37.3 |
34.6 |
-6.6 |
34.3 |
37.8 |
27.9 |
6.4 |
| Mar-20 |
27.7 |
42.0 |
30.3 |
-2.6 |
32.4 |
43.5 |
24.1 |
8.3 |
| May-20 |
13.9 |
39.6 |
46.4 |
-32.5 |
22.0 |
42.4 |
35.6 |
-13.6 |
| Jul-20 |
9.2 |
29.4 |
61.4 |
-52.2 |
22.2 |
37.9 |
39.9 |
-17.7 |
| Sep-20 |
10.7 |
29.5 |
59.8 |
-49.1 |
31.3 |
37.4 |
31.4 |
-0.1 |
|